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????? ?????? ???????? ?????? ???????? ???????? ?????????????? ?????? ?????????????? ??????????, ? ?????? ??????? ????????? ??????????????? ?????????, ??????? ??? ??????? ? ?????????. ???????? ?????? ???????? ???? ?????????????? ?????????? ?? ????????????????? ???????????, ? ??????????? ?????????? ??????????? ??????????????? ?????????, ? ?????????????? ?????????????? ??????? ??????????? ?? ??????????.
1 ???????? ??????
?????????????? ?????????? ?? ??? ???????? ? ??????? 1.1,1.2.
??????? 1.1 - ?????????????? ?????????? ?? ??? ???????????????? ???????
? ?????????????????? ???????????(N), ???.?????? ??? (D), ???.???.????? ????????????? ?????(Q), ??? ?.143270343194271922170250837496441109546911491720765119328938363361010198903374771959703459888612209303499002809924311010002186433621111826903270412103326672231313739966521721483923345222915120015237285516647157602731176308166129718108597252061194921988527052010062887220382181912521726224161740114752367312863692241006956723562587926922255426528882826702781712777279728689196312922296361934313923085979104132
??????? 1.2 - ?????????????? ?????? ????????? ?????? ?? ??? ?? ????? ???????????????????????? ????? ????????? ??????, ?2009 ???2010 ???2011 ?????????????????55645620365492155901???????59765619194927149984????48611678885700850760??????44928400935801161765???40731636824497642342????47785506005443744688????53734583484731357372??????47798474435890153006????????44191449736471743784???????43650473556624261534??????53300617225413845345???????67129480555783642495
2 ??????????? ? ?????? ??????????????? ????????? ?????????? ??????? ????????? (W) ? ?????? ?????? ????? ?????????? ?? ???????
W = D/N, (2.1)
??? D - ?????? ???, ???. ???.;
N - ??????????????? ???????????, ???. ?????????? ??????? ????????? (W) ? ?????? ????????????? ????? ????? ?????????? ?? ???????
W = Q/N, (2.2)
??? Q - ????? ????????????? ?????, ???. ?. 2.1 ?????? ??????? ???????? ?????????? ??????? ????????? (W).
?? ??????? 2.1 ????? ?????????? ?????????? ??????? ????????? ? ?????? ?????? ??? ??? ?1
W = 3194/432 = 7,39.
?? ??????? 2.2 ????? ?????????? ?????????? ??????? ????????? ? ?????? ????????????? ????? W = 7034/432 = 16,28.
???????? ?????????? ??????? ????????? ??? ?????? ??? ????????? ? ??????? 2.1.
??????? 2.1 - ?????????????? ?????????? ?? ??? ???????????????? ???????
? ?????????????????? ???????????(N), ???.?????? ??? (D), ???.???.????? ????????????? ?????(Q), ??? ?.??????? ????????? (W), ???.??????? ????????? (W), ?.14327034319416,287,39271922170250830,833,493749644110958,601,46469114917207621,593,005119328938363324,263,056101019890337419,693,347719597034598,304,81888612209303413,783,42990028099243131,222,7010100021864336221,863,36111182690327045,842,2912103326672231325,822,24137399665217213,082,941483923345222927,822,6615120015237285512,702,381664715760273124,364,22176308166129712,962,06181085972520618,961,901949219885270540,425,5020100628872203828,702,03218191252172615,290,892241617401147541,833,55236731286369219,111,03241006956723569,512,342587926922255430,632,91265288828267016,725,062781712777279715,643,422868919631292228,494,242963619343139230,412,1930859791041329,214,81 ??? ??????????? ?????????? ????? ?????????? ??????? ??????????:
m=1+3,322logN, (2.3) ??? m - ????? ????? (??????????? ?? ??????);
N - ????? ?????? ????????????.
??? ??????????? ???????? ????????? ?????????? ???????
i= R/m, (2.4)
??? R - ?????? ????????, R = Xmax - Xmin;
Xmax - ???????????? ???????? ??????????????? ????????;
Xmin - ??????????? ???????? ??????????????? ????????;
m - ????? ?????.
?? ??????? 2.3 ????? ?????????? ?????????? ?????
m=1+3,322log30 = 12,29 (5).
2.2 ?????? ??????? ????????? ??? ??? ?? ??????????????? ???????????
?? ??????? 2.4 ????? ?????????? ???????? ??? ??? ?? ??????????????? ???????????
i= (1200-416)/13=60.
?????????? ????? ?????????? ????????? ??? ??? ?? ??????, ?????? ????????? ? ??????? ?????????.
?????????? ????????????? ??????????? ??????????? ??? ?? ??????????????? ??????????? (??????? 2.2).
??????? 2.2 - ????????????? ??????????? ??????????? ??? ?? ??????????????? ???????????
?????? ??? ?? ??????????????? ???????????, ??????????, ni??????????? ???????, Fi????. ???????? ?????????, ???.????????? ???????, fi????? ???, ???. ???.????? ????????????? ?????, ??? ?.?????????? ??????? ?????????, W, ???.???.?????????? ??????? ?????????, W, ???.?416-477224460,03324435466958,1110,94478-538245080,03328713537557,1410,56539-599045690,000000,000,00600-660376300,05043269542067,738,47661-7215126910,0837555111657108,3216,57722-7822147520,03316106326721,684,40783-8433178130,05048643575258,756,97844-9044218740,067751401215184,8413,84905-9650219350,000000,000,00966-10264259960,067801931113079,7611,071027-108722710570,03336397437434,784,141088-114802711180,000000,000,001149-120033011790,05051078919242,807,72?????3047952572987613,9194,68
?????????? ????????????? ??????????? ??????????? ??? ?? ?????? ????????????? ????? (??????? 2.3).
??????? 2.3 - ????????????? ??????????? ??????????? ??? ?? ?????? ????????????? ?????
?????? ??? ?? ?????? ????????????? ?????, ??? ?.???????, ni??????????? ???????, Fi????. ???????? ?????????, ???.????????? ???????, fi??????????????? ???????????, ???.????? ???, ???. ???.?????????? ?????? ?????????, W, ???.???.?????????? ?????? ?????????, W, ???.?692-957227130,0072514922538434,401,92958-1222139890,0036274964418,601,461223-14873612650,0108716824491085,207,801488-17520615410,00000000,000,001753-20170618170,00000000,000,002018-228251120930,01812436086524100,1512,532283-254741523690,0144936588650897,3810,772548-281262126450,02174454591075133,6123,402813-307732429210,0108727754707754,9710,043078-334212531970,00362432703416,287,393343-360732834730,0108727294772449,8511,513608-387212937490,0036211932893824,263,053873-413713040250,0036285979109,214,81?????302447447952561495
?????????? ????????????? ??????????? ??????????? ??? ?? ??????? (??????? 2.4).
??????? 2.4 - ????????????? ??????????? ??????????? ??? ?? ???????
?????? ??? ?? ???????, ???. ???.???????, ni??????????? ???????, Fi????. ???????? ?????????, ???.????????? ???????, fi??????????????? ???????????, ???.????? ????????????? ?????, ??? ?.?????????? ?????? ?????????, W, ???.???.?????????? ?????? ?????????, W, ???.?5970-77384459800,0021130821045239,0215,957739-95063778790,001582017809938,8911,939507-1127431097780,001582830658931,5581,5811275-13042414116770,002113195724963,82-65,6413043-14810014135760,00000000,000,0014811-16578317154750,001582538766258,659,6016579-18346118173740,00053416147541,833,5518347-20114422192730,00211282710393119,0115,2720115-21882123211720,000531000336221,863,3621883-23650225230710,001051558473758,656,1523651-25418025249700,00000000,000,0025419-27186227268690,001051912486756,455,1527187-28954330287680,001583099810284,187,78?????302447472987613,9194,68
?????????? ????????????? ??????????? ??????????? ??? ?? ??????? ????????? ? ?????? ?????? (??????? 2.5).
??????? 2.5 - ????????????? ??????????? ??????????? ??? ?? ??????? ????????? ? ??????
?????? ??? ?? ?????? ?????????, W, ???.???.???????, ni??????????? ???????, Fi????. ???????? ?????????, ???.????????? ???????, fi??????????????? ???????????, ???.????? ???, ???. ???.????? ????????????? ?????, ??? ?.?????????? ?????? ?????????, W, ???.?5,84-8,843313,053265019314,0072588,568,85-11,843614,05532950,0027202,008549,009,0511,85-14,8441015,05543455,0045277,009358,0010,8014,85-17,8441416,05542596,0041160,009387,0016,7617,85-20,8421617,05521683,0032753,004066,004,3720,85-23,8421818,05521691,0036781,005438,006,3623,85-26,8432119,05532873,0071370,008677,009,5126,85-29,8432420,05532534,0071848,007189,008,9329,85-32,8442821,05543134,0096534,008885,0011,2932,85-35,8402822,05500,000,000,000,0035,85-38,8402823,05500,000,000,000,0038,85-41,8423024,0552908,0037286,004180,009,0541,85-44,8403025,05500,000,000,000,00?????3030244744795257298795
?????????? ????????????? ??????????? ??????????? ??? ?? ??????? ????????? ? ?????? ????????????? ????? (??????? 2.6).
??????? 2.6 - ????????????? ??????????? ??????????? ??? ?? ??????? ????????? ? ?????? ????????????? ?????
?????? ??? ????????? ?????????, W, ???.?.???????, ni??????????? ???????, Fi????. ???????? ?????????, ???.????????? ???????, fi??????????????? ???????????, ???.????? ???, ???. ???.????? ????????????? ?????, ??? ?.?????????? ?????? ?????????, W, ???.???.0,89-1,39221,49512,5149225384141834,41,40-1,90241,65512,51834,0016166,003156,0017,561,91-2,417111,81543,756693,00114760,0014955,00125,942,42-2,923141,97518,752618,0078366,007214,0089,672,93-3,437212,13543,756336,00120260,0020448,00129,903,44-3,942232,29512,51135,0039571,003983,0072,663,95-4,452252,45512,51336,0035391,005653,0052,854.46-4,962272,61512,51578,0013880,007591,0017,514,97-5,471282,7756,25528,008828,002670,0016,725,48-5,981292,9356,25492,0019885,002705,0040,425,99-6,490293,09500,000,000,000,006,50-7,000293,25500,000,000,000,007,01-7,511303,4156,25432,007034,003194,0016,28?????302447447952572987614
?? ???????? 2.1, 2.2, 2.3 ????????? ??????????? ??????????? ????????????? ??????????? ??????????? ??? ?? ??????????????? ???????????.
??????? 2.1 - ???????????
??????? 2.2 - ????????
??????? 2.3 - ?????
?? ????????? ???????? ?????? ????? ??????? ?????????? ?????????????? ? ??????????? ???????????.
?????????????? ??????????? ?? ??????????????? ??????????? ???????????? ? ??????? 2.7.
??????? 2.7 - ?????????????? ??????????? ?? ??????????????? ???????????
?????? ??? ?? ??????????????? ???????????, ??????????, ni????????? ??????????????? ??????????? ??? ? ??????, ???.??????????????? ??????????? ???????????? ?? ???? ??? ? ??????, ???.????????? ????? ????????? ?? ??? ? ??????, ???.?.??????? ????? ?????????, ???????????? ?? ???? ??? ? ??????, ???.?.????? (?? 500 ???.)31340446,666773742458??????? (500-900 ???.)1712519736,4118384862263,882??????? (?????? 900 ???.)10106151061,5271272712,7?????:30244742245729877435 ??????????? ??????????? ???????????? ? ??????? 2.8
??????????? ??????????? ?????????????? ??????????? ???????????? ?? ??????? 2.5.
??????? 2.5 - ?????????
??????????? ??????????? ??????????? ??????????? ???????????? ?? ??????? 2.6, ??????? 2.7, ??????? 2.8.
??????? 2.6. - ????????? ?? ?????????? ??? ? ?????? ??????.
??????? 2.7. - ????????? ?? ?????? ???, ???. ???.
??????? 2.8. - ????????? ?? ?????? ????????????? ????? ???, ???. ?. ?????: ? ??????? ????????????? ??????????? ??????????? ??????????? ??????????? ????????? ? ???????? ?????????? ????????????. ?? ? ????? ?????? ??????????????? ?? ???? ???????. ??? ?????????????? ???????????? ??????????????? ?????????? ???? ???????????? ?? ??????????? ?????????? ??????, ?.?. ????????? ?????????-????????????? ?????. ?? ?????? ???? ??????????? ???? ????????, ??? ??? ?????? ??????????????? ??????????? ???????, ??? ?????? ????????? ????? ????????? ?? ??? ? ??????, ?? ?????? ??????? ????? ?????????, ???????????? ?? ???? ??? ? ??????. ??????????? ??????????? ????????????? ????????? ??????? ? ??????????? ??????. ? ????? ?????? ??????????????? ?? ???? ???????.
3 ?????? ?????? ????????? ?? ????????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ?????????
?? ????????? ???????? ?????? (??????? 1) ?????????? ?????????? ?????????? ????? ??? ?? ????? ????????????. ??? ?????????? ??? ?????????? ????? ????????? ?? ?????????????? ??????, ??????? ???????? ?????? ????????? ?? ???? ??????????? ???????????? ???, ? ????? ?????? ?????????? ??????. ????? ???????? ????????? ???????? ?????? ????????? ?? ???? ??????????? ???????????? ???, ?????????? ?? ????????? ?????????? ???????????? ?? ????????? ?????? ????????? ?? ???? ??????????? ???????????? ???, ?????????? ??? ?????? ?????????? ????????? ?????.
????? ??????? ???????????? ?? ???????:
n = 0,1N ??? n = 0,25N, (3.1)
??? N - ????? ????? ??????????? ??????.
???????, ?????????? ???????????? ? ??????? ?????? ??????, ???????????? ? ?????????????? ????????? ???????????? ????????? ????? (??????? ????????? ?????).
??????? ????? ????????? ?? ??????????? ???:
Q?? = qi / n, (3.2)
??? qi - ????? ????????? ?? ?????? ??? i-?? ???, ?;
n - ????? ?????????? ????????????
????? ????? ????????? ?? ???? ???????? ?????? (??? ????? ?????? ???????):
Q = Q??*N, (3.3)
??? N - ????? ????? ??? (????? ?????? ??????????? ????????????)
??????????? ??????? Q?? ? ???????? ???????? ?????????? (??????????? ???????????):
Q?? - ?q = Q?? = Q?? + ?q, (3.4)
??? ?q - ?????????? ?????? ???????
?q = t*(S/vn), (3.5)
??? t - ??????????? ???????, ????????? ?? ??????????? ?;
S - ??????? ?????????????? ?????????? ???????? ?? ???????;
n - ????? ?????????? ????????????.
??? ???????? ???????? ?????? (????? ?????????? ????? 30) t ???????????? ?? ??????? "????????? ????????????? ??????? ???????" ? ??????????? ?? ???????? ??????????? P.
??? ????? ???????? (????? ?????????? ?? 30) ??? ??????? t ?????????? ???????? ??????? S(t):
S(t) = (?+1)/2 (3.6)
?? ??????? ????????????? ????????? ? ??????????? ?? ???????? ??????? S(t) ? ????? ???????? ??????? ? (? ????? ?????? ????? ???????, ???????????? ?? ???????) ?????????? ???????? t.
??????? ?????????????? ?????????? s:
- ??? ??????? ???????:
s = v[(?(qi - Q??)2) / n] (3.7)
- ??? ????? ???????:
s = v[(?(qi - Q??)2) / (n-1)] (3.8)
????? ????? ????????? ?? ???? ???????? ?????? ? ?????? ?????? ???????:
(Q?? - ?q) *N = Q = (Q?? + ?q) *N (3.9)
????????????? ?????????? ?????? ??????? ????????: (?q/Q??)*100% (3.10)
?? ??????? (3.1) ???????????? ????? ??????? ?? ???????
n = 0,25*30=7,5 (8).
?? ??????? (3.2) ? ??????? 1.1 ?????????????? ??????? ????? ????????? ?? ??????????? ???
Q?? = (3194+2508+1095+2076+3633+3374+3459+3034)/8 = 2797.
?? ??????? (3.2) ?????????????? ????? ????? ????????? ?? ???? ???????? ?????? (??? ????? ?????? ???????)
Q = 2797*30 = 83910.
?????? ?? ?????? ??????? 1.1, ????? ????? ????????? ???????? 72987 ???. ????. ?? ??????? (3.6) ??????? ???????? ??????? S(t)
S(t) = (0,95+1)/2 = 0,975.
?? ??????? ????????????? ????????? ???????? t = 2,4.
?? ??????? (3.8) ??????? c?????? ?????????????? ??????????
s=v[((3194-2797)^2+(2508-2797)^2+(1095-2797)^2+(2076-2797)^2+(3633-2797)^2+(3374-2797)^2+(3459-2797)^2+(3034-2797)^2)/7]=860.
?? ??????? (3.5) ??????? ?????????? ?????? ???????
?q = 2,4*(860/v8) = 737.
?? ??????? (3.4) ??????? ??????????? ??????? ? ???????? ???????? ?????????? (??????????? ???????????)
2797 - 737 = 2797 = 2797 + 737
2060 = 2797 = 3534.
?? ??????? (3.10) ??????? ????????????? ?????????? ?????? ??????? (737/2797)*100% = 26,35%.
?? ??????? (3.9) ??????? ????? ????? ????????? ?? ???? ???????? ?????? ? ?????? ?????? ???????:
(2797 - 737)*30 = 2797*30 = (2797 + 737)*30
61800 = 83910 = 106020.
?????: ????? ????? ????????? ??? ????? ? ???????? ?????? ?????? ????????? ?? ???? ???????? ?????? ? ?????? ?????? ??????? ??????? ????? ??????????? ????? ???????, ??????? ??? ????????? ?? ??????? (3.1).
4 ?????? ? ????????? ?????????????? ?????? ??? ?? ?????????? ??????
4.1 ?????? ???????? ????????? ?????????????? ??????? ?????????
?????????????? ????? ????????? ?????? ????? ?????????? ?? ???????
Q???ij = Q???ij / ??ij, (4.1)
??? Q???ij - ?????????????? ????? ????????? ? i-?? ?????? j-?? ????, ?;
??ij - ??????????? ????? ???? ? i-?? ?????? j-?? ????, ?.
?????????????? ??????? ?????? ????????? ??? ??????? ?????? ????? ?????????? ?? ???????
?icp = (Q???i,2009+Q???i,2010+Q???i,2011)/3, (4.2)
??? Q???i,2009 - ?????????????? ????? ????????? ?????? ?? i-? ????? 2009 ????, ?;
Q???i,2010 - ?????????????? ????? ????????? ?????? ?? i-? ????? 2010 ????, ?;
Q???i,2011 - ?????????????? ????? ????????? ?????? ?? i-? ????? 2011 ????, ?.
????? ??????? ?? ??? ????? ?????????? ?? ???????
???? = ? (?icp*di)/365, (4.3)
??? di - ?????????? ???? ? ??????.
?????? ?????????? ??? ??????? ?????? ????? ?????????? ?? ???????
ic = ?icp / ????*100% (4.4)
?? ??????? (4.1) ? ??????? 1.2 ????? ?????????? ?????????????? ????? ????????? ?????? ??? ?????? 2009, 2010 ? 2011 ?????
Q???1,2009 = 55645/31 = 1795.
Q???1,2010 = 62036/31 = 2001.
Q???1,2011 = 55901/31 = 1803.
?????????? ???????????? ?????????????? ????? ????????? ?????? ??? ?????? ???????.
?????????????? ??????? ?????? ????????? ??? ?????? ????? ?????????? ?? ??????? (4.2) ? ??????? 4.1
?icp = (1795+2001+1803)/3 = 1866.
?????????? ???????????? ?????????????? ??????? ??? ?????? ???????.
?? ??????? (4.3) ? ??????? 4.1 ????? ?????????? ????? ??????? ?? ???
????=(1866*31+2044*28+1798*31+1631*30+1578*31+1590*30+1822*31+
+1647*31+1430*30+1695*31+1724*30+1695*31)/365 =1703.
?????????? ???????????? ????? ??????? ?? ??? ??? ?????? ???????.
?? ??????? (4.4) ? ??????? 4.1 ???????????? ?????? ?????????? ??? ??????
ic = 1866/1703*100% = 110%.
?????????? ???????????? ?????? ?????????? ??? ?????? ???????.
? ??????? 4.1 ???????? ?????????????? ????? ????????? ?????? ?? ?????.
??????? 4.1 - ?????????????? ????? ????????? ?????? ?? ?????
???????????????????????? ????? ????????? ??????, ??????????????? ??????? ??? ??????? ??????, ?icp?????? ??????????, ic%(ic -100)^22009 ???2010 ???2011 ??? ??????????????1795200117721803186611010???????21342211176017852044120399????1568219018391637179810631??????149813361934205916319618???131420541451136615789354????159316871815149015909345????1733188215261851182210749??????159315811963176716479711????????1426145120881412143084259???????14551579220820511695991??????171919911746146317241012???????216515501866137116951000 yocp=1703
?�??(i_c-100)?^2)/n)?=73
?? ????????? ???????? ?????????? ????? ???? ????????? ?????????? ??????????, ??????????? ??????????? ???????? ???????? ????????? ?? ?????????? ???, ??????? ?????????????? ??????????:
s=v((?�??(i_c-100)?^2)/n)?, (4.5)
??? ic - ?????? ?????????? ??? ??????? ??????;
n - ????? ???????.
?? ??????? (4.5) ????????
s=v((73)/12)=2,47.
?????: ?????? ??????? ? ??????? ???????????????, ?? ??? ? ??????? ?????????????? ????? ????????? ??? ?????????? ?? ??? ???? ?????? ? 2010. ??????? ?????????????? ?????????? ?????????? ?? ????? ??????. ? ?? ?????, ??? ??? ??? ??????, ??? ?????? ???????? ???????? ?????????. ?? ???????? ?????????? ????? ???????, ??? ? ?????? ???? ??? ???????????? ?? 10%, ? ??????? ??? ?????? ? ???? ??? ???????????? ?? 20%. ? ????? ??? ???????????? ???? ?? 6%. ????????? ??? ????????? ? ??????? ? ?????????? 20% ?????????????? ?????.
4.2 ?????? ?????????? ????? ?? ??????????
????? ????????? ? ?????? ???? ?????????????? ?? ??????? V?? = Mk + M(k-1); (4.6)
??? Mk - ????? ????????? ? ??????? ??????, ?;
M(k-1) - ????? ????????? ? ?????????? ??????, ?.
??????? ?????????? ????? ?? ????? ?? ??????? ????? ?????????? ?? ???????
??? = ???/??*100%; (4.7)
??? ??? - ???????? ?????? ?? ?????;
?? - ???????? ?????? ?? ?????.
??????? ?????????? ????? ?? ???????????? ????? ? ?????? ???? ?????????????? ?? ???????
???? = ?????/ ????*100%; (4.8)
??? ????? - ???????? ?????? ? ?????? ????;
???? - ???????? ?????? ? ?????? ????.
??????? ?????????? ???????? ????? ??????????? ?????? ?????????????? ?? ???????
?? = ????? /?????*100%; (4.9)
??? ????? - ???????? ???????? ?????? ????????? ? ?????? ???? ?? ???????.
?? ??????? (4.6) ? ??????? 1.2 ?????????????? ???????? ????? ????????? ? ?????? ???? ?? ???????
V?? = 49271+54921 = 104192.
?? ??????? (4.6) ? ??????? 1.2 ?????????????? ???????? ????? ????????? ? ?????? ???? ?? ???????
V?? = 49984+55901 = 105885.
?????????? ?????????????? ???????? ? ???????? ?????? ????????? ? ?????? ???? ??? ?????? ???????.
?? ??????? (4.7) ? ??????? 1.2 ?????????????? ??????? ?????????? ????? ?? ?????? ?? ??????? ??? = 49984/49271*100 = 101,44%.
?????????? ?????????????? ??????? ?????????? ????? ??? ?????? ???????.
?? ??????? (4.8) ? ??????? 1.2 ?????????????? ??????? ?????????? ????? ?? ???????????? ????? ? ?????? ???? ?? ???????
???? = 105885/104192*100% = 101,62%.
?????????? ?????????????? ??????? ?????????? ????? ?? ???????????? ????? ? ?????? ??? ?????? ???????.
?? ??????? (4.9) ? ??????? 1.2 ?????????????? ??????? ?????????? ???????? ????? ??????????? ??????
?? = 105885/66777*100% = 15,85%
?????????? ?????????????? ??????? ?????????? ???????? ????? ??????????? ?????? ??? ?????? ???????.
?????? ?????????? ????? ?? ?????? ????????? ?? 2011 ???????? ? ??????? 4.2
??????? 4.2 - ?????????? ????? ????????? ?? 2011 ???
?????????? ????????? , ??????????? ?????, %??????????? ??????? ???????????? ????????????? ??????????? ???????? ?????? ?????? ?????? ?????? ?????? ??????????54921549215590155901101,7844101,78448,3713???????4927110419249984105885101,4471101,624915,8565????570081612005076015664589,040197,174323,4579??????5801121921161765218410106,471299,634632,7073???449762641874234226075294,143598,699839,0481????544373186244468830544082,091295,862245,7402????4731336593757372362812121,260599,146054,3318??????589014248385300641581889,991797,876862,2696????????647174895554378445960267,654693,881668,8263???????662425557976153452113692,892793,763778,0411??????541386099354534556648183,758292,875684,8316???????578366677714249560897673,475091,195391,1953 ?????: ???? ????????? ?? 2011 ??? ???????? ?? 91,19%
??????????? ??????????? ??????? 4.2 ???????????? ?? ???. 4.2
??? 4.2 ?????????? ????? ????????? ?? 2011 ???
4.3 ?????????????? ??????????? ??????????? ?????????? ????? ?? ??????????
??????????? ?????????? ????? ?? ?????????? ???????? ????????? ??????????? ?????? ???????????. ?????? ??? ????????? ?????? ??????????? ?????????? ????? ?? ?????????? ??? ?????????? ?? ????????????? ? ?????????????? ??????????, ??????????? ?????? ???????????.
??????????? ?????? ??? ???????? ?? ???? ?????????? ?????? ?????????? ?????????? ? ?????????????? ?????-??????? ?? ??????????.
???????? ?? ???????????? ? ???????? ?????? ?????????? ???????????? ??? ?????? ?????????????? ? ???????????? ???????. ???? ?????????????? ?????? ??????????? ? ???, ??? ?? ?????? ???????? ? ???????? ?????? ?? ?????? ????????? ?? ?????? ???? ??????????? ??????????? ??????? ?????????? ????????? ????? ? ???????????? ? ???, ??????? ?????? ???? ??? ????????? ??????.
? ???? ???????, ?????????????? ?????? ??????????? ?????????? ????? ????? ???? ?????????? ????????? ???????:
?? = (?Q? / ?Q?)*100, (4.10)
??? Q? - ??????????? ????? ????????? ?? ?????? ????, ?? ???? ?????? ????????? ???????; Q? - ???????? ????? ????????? ?? ?????? ????.
????? ????????? ? ?????? ?????? ?????????????? ?? ???????
V?? = ?k + ?(k-1); (4.11)
??? ?k - ????? ????????? ?? ??????? ????, ?;
?(k-1) - ????? ????????? ?? ?????????? ????, ?.
??????? ?????????? ????????? ????? ?? ??????? ?????????????? ?? ???????
???? = ????/ ????30*100%; (4.12)
??? ???? - ???????? ?????? ? ?????? ??????;
????30 - ???????? ?????? ? ?????? ?????? ??? ?????????? ??? ??????.
??????? ?????????? ????????? ????? ?? ????? ?????????????? ?? ???????
???? = ?????/ ????30*100%; (4.13)
??? ???? - ???????? ?????? ? ?????? ??????;
????30 - ???????? ?????? ? ?????? ?????? ??? ?????????? ??? ??????.
?? ??????? (4.11) ? ??????? 1.3 ?????????????? ???????? ????? ????????? ? ? ?????? ?????? ??? ??????? ???
V?? = 1805,3+1762,99 = 3568,29.
?? ??????? (4.11) ? ??????? 1.3 ?????????????? ???????? ????? ????????? ? ?????? ?????? ??? ??????? ???
V?? = 1722,73+1723,48 = 3446,21.
?????????? ?????????????? ???????? ? ???????? ?????? ????????? ? ?????? ?????? ??? ?????? ????.
.?? ??????? (4.12) ?????????????? ??????? ?????????? ????????? ????? ?? ??????? ??? ??????? ???
???? = 1805,3/ 52735,39*100% = 3,42.
?????????? ?????????????? ??????? ?????????? ????????? ????? ?? ??????? ??? ?????? ????.
?? ??????? (4.13) ?????????????? ??????? ?????????? ????????? ????? ?? ????? ??? ??????? ???
???? = 1722,73/ 51681,85*100% = 3,27.
?????????? ?????????????? ??????? ?????????? ????????? ????? ?? ????? ??? ?????? ????.
?????? ??????????? ??????????? ?????????? ????? ???????? ? ??????? 4.3.1
??????? 4.3.1 - ??????????? ?????????? ?????
??? ?????? (??????)????? ?????????, ???. ??????????? ????????? ?????, %??????????? ????????????? ????? ?????? ???????? ????? ?????? ??????11805,301805,301722,731722,733,423,2721762,993568,291723,483446,216,776,5331762,425330,711723,265169,4710,119,8041752,717083,431722,946892,4113,4313,0751743,388826,811723,428615,8316,7416,3461761,6110588,421722,8910338,7320,0819,6071753,0312341,451725,7112064,4423,4022,8881770,4114111,861721,3313785,7726,7626,1491776,4515888,311720,8015506,5730,1329,40101727,1517615,461720,8617227,4333,4032,67111723,1219338,581720,8718948,3036,6735,93121776,9821115,561723,0720671,3740,0439,20131731,2722846,831723,4922394,8643,3242,47141750,1824597,011721,1924116,0546,6445,73151741,5126338,531720,1525836,2049,9448,99161744,8528083,381724,9627561,1653,2552,26171791,0729874,451723,1429284,3056,6555,53181794,2631668,711722,2931006,5960,0558,80191748,7033417,411720,1432726,7363,3762,06201800,9635218,371723,7334450,4666,7865,33211746,2636964,631725,9536176,4170,0968,60221739,4438704,061723,9937900,4073,3971,87231787,6140491,671721,3039621,7076,7875,13241756,0442247,711723,7841345,4880,1178,40251754,6044002,321720,1743065,6583,4481,66261773,2445775,561724,4244790,0686,8084,93271740,3647515,921720,2346510,3090,1088,20281742,4249258,341725,9948236,2893,4191,47291725,5850983,921723,0549959,3496,6894,74301751,4752735,391722,5251681,85100,0098,00 ??????????? ??????????? ??????? 4.3.1 ???????????? ?? ???. 4.3.1
?????????? ????? ? ????? ????? ?????????? ?? ???????
?? = ???/??; (4.14)
??? ??? - ???????? ?????? ?? ????;
?? - ???????? ?????? ?? ????.
????? ???????????? ????? ?????????? ?? ???????
? = ??? - ?? (4.15) ?? ??????? (4.14) ? ??????? 1.3 ????? ?????????? ?????????? ????? ? ????? ??? ??????? ???
?? = 1722,73/1805,30 = 0,95
?????????? ????? ?????????? ?????????? ????? ? ????? ??? ?????? ????.
?? ??????? (4.15) ? ??????? 1.3 ????? ?????????? ????? ???????????? ??? ??????? ???
? = 1722,73 - 1805,30 = 82,58.
?????????? ????? ?????????? ????? ???????????? ??? ?????? ????.
?????? ??????????? ??????????? ?????????? ????? ? ????? ???????????? ????????? ? ??????? 4.3.2
??? ?????? (??????)????? ?????????, ???. ??????????? ????? ? ?????????? ???????????????????????????????????????????????11805,301722,730,9582,58 21762,991723,480,9839,51 31762,421723,260,9839,16 41752,711722,940,9829,77 51743,381723,420,9919,96 61761,611722,890,9838,72 71753,031725,710,9827,33 81770,411721,330,9749,08 91776,451720,800,9755,65 101727,151720,860,996,29 111723,121720,870,992,25 121776,981723,070,9753,91 131731,271723,490,997,78 141750,181721,190,9828,99 151741,511720,150,9921,36 161744,851724,960,9919,89 171791,071723,140,9667,93 181794,261722,290,9671,97 191748,701720,140,9828,56 201800,961723,730,9677,24 211746,261725,950,9920,31 221739,441723,990,9915,44 231787,611721,300,9666,30 241756,041723,780,9832,26 251754,601720,170,9834,44 261773,241724,420,9748,83 271740,361720,230,9920,13 281742,421725,990,9916,43 291725,581723,050,992,53 301751,471722,520,9828,95 ????? ?? 30 ????52735,3951681,8529,411053,53 ??????? 4.3.2 - ??????????? ?????????? ?????. ????? ????????????
?????????????? ?????? ??????????? ?????????? ????? ?????????????? ?? ??????? (4.10)
?? = (51681,85/52735,39)*100 = 95,22
??????????? ??????????? ??????? 4.3.2 ???????????? ?? ???. 4.3.1
???. 4.3.1 ??????????? ?????????? ?????
?????: ???? ?? ?????? 2011 ???? ???????????? ?? 4,78%. ?????? ??? ??????????.
5 ??????????? ?????????????? ???????? ??????????? ????????? ? ????????? ?????????????? ?? ???????? ? ????????????? ??????????????? ?? ????????? ???????
??????? ?????????? ?????????? ????? ?????????? ?? ???????
MAD = S|?t|/n, (5.1)
??? ?t - ??? ???????? ???????????? ? ??????????? ???????? ? ?????? ??????? t;
n - ????? ??????????.
???????????????????? ?????? ????? ?????????? ?? ???????
MSE= S?t2/n (5.2)
????????? ????? ?????? ???????????? ????????? ???????: ? = ? + bx, (5.3)
??? ? ? b - ????????????;
? - ????? ??????.
? ???? ??????? ??? ??????????? ????????????? ? ? b ???????????? ????????? ???????:
b = (nSxiyi - SxiSyi) / (nSxi2 - (Sxi)2) (5.4)
a = (Syi - bSxi) / n, (5.5)
??? xi - ????? ??????;
yi - ???????????????????? ????? ?????????;
n - ????? ?????????? (?????????? ???????).
?????????? ???????? ???????? ????? ??????? ?????????? ???????, ????? ?????????? ???????, ????? ??????? ????????? ? ??????? 5.1.
??????? 5.1 - ??????????? ???????? ????????
?????????? ?????????, ??????????? ??????? ?? ??????? 3 ???????????? ???????? ??????????????55901--???????4998452215,00-2231,00????5076054169,67-3409,67??????6176551622,3310142,67???4234249598,33-7256,33????4468848134,00-3446,00????5737251688,675683,33??????5300651387,331618,67????????4378452774,67-8990,67???????6153450221,0011313,00??????4534549791,33-4446,33???????42495--
?? ????????? ????? ?????????? ??????????????? ???????? ????????, ? ????? ????????? ???????? ???????? ???????? ? ????? ?? ??????????????? ??????. ??? ????? ????????????? ????????? ??????? 5.2.
??????? 5.2 - ????????????????? ???????? ????????
????? ?????? ? ????????1,002,003,00-2231,00-3409,6710142,67-7256,33-3446,005683,331618,67-8990,6711313,00-4446,33????????????9046,333-3078,75-5282,11685,4722????????????????? ???????? ????????8817,843-3307,24-5510,60?????????????? ??????228,4907
???????? ???????? ???????? ?? ??????????? ??????, ?.?. ???????? ??????????????? ??????. ??? ????? ????????????? ????????? ??????? 5.3.
??????? 5.3 - ??????????????? ??????
????? ??????????? ????????? (?)???????? ???????? (S)???????????????????? ????? ????????? (A-S=T+E)12341559018817,84347083,16249984-3307,2453291,24350760-5510,656270,64617658817,84352947,16542342-3307,2445649,24644688-5510,650198,67573728817,84348554,16853006-3307,2456313,24943784-5510,649294,610615348817,84352716,161145345-3307,2448652,241242495-5510,648005,6 ?? ??????? 5.4 ? 5.5 ????? ?????????? ???????????? b ? ? ??????????????
b = (12*4276450,56- 78*608976) / (12*650 - 782) = -155,246. a = (608976 - (- 155,246*78 ) / 12 = 51757,1.
?? ????????? ??????????? ????????? ?????? ? ???????, ??? ?????????, ?????????? ?? ??????? ??????, ?????????? ? ? ????????? ???????, ????? ??????? ??????? ?? ??????????? 3 ??????. ??? ????? ??????????? ?????? ?????? ? ??????? ????????? ?????? (5.3) ? ????????? ???????? ????????.
?? ??????? 5.3 ??????? ??????? ?????? ????????? ?? 13,14 ? 15 ??????
51757,1+(-155,246)*13+8817,843 = 58556,74.
51757,1+(-155,246)*14+(-3307,24) = 46276,41.
51757,1+(-155,246)*15+(-5510,6) = 43917,81.
??? ??????????? ???????? ???????? ?????????? ?????????? ??????. ??????? ????????????? ????????? ??????? 5.4
??????? 5.4 - ?????? ?????? ????????
????? ??????????? ????????? (?)???????????????????? ????? ????????? (A-S=T+E)????????? ?????????????? e_t |e_t |?e_t?^215590147083,1651912,35-4829,194829,1923321072,4124998453291,2452067,591223,6471223,6471497312,0535076056270,652222,844047,7614047,76116384366,5146176552947,1652378,09569,0713569,0713323842,1854234245649,2452533,33-6884,096884,09247390722,9564468850198,652688,58-2489,982489,9786199992,2975737248554,1652843,82-4289,674289,66818401249,1585300656313,2452999,073314,1693314,16910983715,7094378449294,653154,32-3859,723859,71714897418,56106153452716,1653309,56-593,407593,4068352131,59114534548652,2453464,81-4812,574812,5723160831,15124249548005,653620,06-5614,465614,45631522121,44 ?????42527,73194434775,97 ??????? ?????????? ?????????? ????? ?????????? ?? ??????? (5.1)
MAD = 42527,73/12 = 3543,98.
???????????????????? ?????? ????? ?????????? ?? ??????? (5.2)
MSE= 194434775,97/12 = 16202898,00.
?????: ?????? ?????? ?????? ? ??? ??????????? ???????? ?? ???????? ????????. ??????????
? ???????? ?????????? ???????? ??????, ??????? ????, ???????????? ? ????????????? ?????????????? ????????, ???????????? ????? ????????? ?? ????????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ?????????. ? ???????? ????????????? ? ???????????? ?????????????? ?????? ??? ?? ?????????? ??????, ? ?? ????: ?????????? ?????????????? ?????? ????????? ?? ?????, ????????????? ???????? ????????? ?????????????? ??????? ?????????, ???????????? ???????? ?? ??????????? ????? ?? ?????????? ? ????? ?? ???, ???????????? ?????????? ??????????? ?????????? ????? ?? ??????????, ? ????? ?????????? ?????????????? ???????? ??????????? ????????? ? ???????? ?????????????? ?? ????????, ???????????? ???????????????. ?????? ??????????
1. ????????? ?????????????? ??????????? ???????????????? ??????????? (???): ???????????? ???????? ?? ?????????? ???????? ?????? ?? ?????????? "?????????????? ?????? ?? ??????????" ??? ?????????? ?? ??????????? ?????????? 190700 - ?????????? ???????????? ????????? / ?. ?. ??????; [?????] / ???????. - ???., 2012. - 15 ?.
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