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saqarTvelos mosaxleobis materialuri keTildReobis

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saqarTvelos mosaxleobis materialuri keTildReobis problemebi globaluri ekonomikuri krizisis fonze.
saqarTvelo. ivane javaxiSvilis saxelobis Tbilisis saxelmwifo universiteti.
msoflioSi mimdinare finansuri krizisi pirdapir Tu iribad SemoiWra saqarTveloSic. ruseTis mier ganxorcielebuli agresiisa da araswori ekonomikuri politikis gamo man Tavisi uaryofiTi niSnebi ukve daaCnia qarTul ekonomikas. Tumca globaluri finansuri krizisis zegavlenis niSnebi Cveni qveynis ekonomikas agvistos movlenebamdec daetyo, ramac gansakuTrebiT sabanko da samSeneblo seqtorSi iCina Tavi. 2008 wlis dasawyisSi, komerciulma bankebma sagrZnoblad gazardes saprocento ganakveTi, radgan bankebs Zalian gauWirdaT iafi sakredito resursebis moZieba saerTaSoriso finansur bazrebze, rac swored imis maniSnebeli iyo, rom globalurma finansurma krizisma iribad mainc imoqmeda saqarTvelos ekonomikaze. problemebi Seeqmna samSeneblo biznessac. aRsaniSnavia, rom omis periodSi, saqarTveloSi komerciulma bankebma dakarges naxevari miliardi dolaris aqtivebi.bankebi realurad krizisis winaSe dadgnen. mdgomareobas arTulebs is garemoebac, rom rusuli agresiis Semdeg saqarTveloSi ucxouri investiciebic Semcirda, qveyanam dakarga sakmaod bevri investicia. saqarTveloSi naklebi raodenobis ucxouri valutis Semodineba moxda, ramac damatebiTi problemebi Seqmna. Seiqmna savaluto krizisis safrTxe, radgan qveyanaSi importi oTxjer Warbobs eqsports. es imas niSnavs, rom eqsportidan yovel miRebul dolarze saqarTvelo importSi kargavs oTx dolars. qveyana icleba savaluto rezervebisgan. saWiro gaxda laris TandaTanobiT gaufasureba. laris vardnam sxvadasxva saqonelze fasis momateba gamoiwvia, radgan Cvens samomxmareblo bazarze saqonlis 80 procenti importirebulia, da fasis dadebisas importiori laris gacvliT kurss iTvaliswinebs. Sesabamisad produqtebi Zvirdeba. ukanaskneli monacemebiT, saqarTveloSi, siRaribis donem saarsebo minimumis mimarT 37% Seadgina, jinis indeqsi, romelic gamoiyeneba sazogadoebaSi Semosavlebis Tu resursebis ganawilebis uTanasworobis gasazomad da axasiaTebs Semosavlebis faqtobrivi ganawilebis gadaxras maTi Tanabari ganawilebis xazidan, 2008 wlisaTvis 53%-s gautolda, maSin rodesac mosaxleobis 10%-ze naklebi aris saqarTvloSi mdidari, naTeli xdeba raoden mniSvnelovania fasebis cvlileba da ra mtkivneulia misi donis momateba mzardi inflaciis fonze saqarTvelos mosaxleobisaTvis. Tu mxedvelobaSi miviRebT imas, rom Semosavlebis struqturaSi sWarbobs daqiravebuli Sromidan, TviTdasaqmebidan da soflis meurneobis produqciis gayidvidan miRebuli Semosavali da isev zrdis tendenciiT xasiaTdeba ucxoeTidan miRebuli gzavnilebis, axloblebisagan miRebuli fulisa da qonebis gayidvidan miRebuli Semosavlis moculoba, udao xdeba saqarTvelos mosaxleobis ukiduresad duxWiri yofa. rogorc oficialuri statistika amtkicebs, rom mosaxleobis mTliani Semosavlebi 2007 wels 2001 welTan SedarebiT 111%-iT, gaizarda, m. S. daqiravebuli Sromidan 133%-iT, TviTdasaqmebidan 62,5 %, soflis meurneobis produqciis gayidvidan 17,5%, axloblebisagan miRebuli fuliT 214,2%, ucxoeTidan miRebuli gzavnilebi 87,1 procentiT, gamodis rom mosaxleoba ZiriTadad cxovrobs sxvis kmayofaze. rac Seexeba qonebis gayidvidan, gaqiravebidan miRebuli Semosavals .2006 wlisaTvis is Semcirda 10 %-T, xolo 2007wels mniSvnelovnad -135%-iT gaizarda. sainteresaoa Semosavlebis dinamika erT sulze. igi saSualod TveSi 2007 wels 2001 welTan SedarebiT 138%,-iT, xolo daqiravebuli Sromidan -168% TviTdasaqmebidan -84 % soflis meurneobis produqciis gayidvidan-32% axloblebisagan miRebuli fuliT-156% ucxoeTidan miRebuli gzavnilebiT-85%-iT gaizarda.
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marTalia cifrebi metyveleben mosaxleobis Semosavlebis zrdaze, magram inflaciis arsebul pirobebSi es naklebad aisaxa maT realur mdgomareobaze. Semosavlebis e.w. ,,zrdasTan" erTad gaizarda maT mier gaweuli fuladi xarjebis moculoba. es imas rodi niSnavs, rom adamianebi ufro ukeT da metad ikmayofileben mzard moTxovnilebebs, aramed fasebis zrdis pirobebSi gazrdis nacvlad Semcirda moxmarebuli momsaxurebis moculoba, magram fasebis zrdam gazarda xarjebis moculoba da Sesamamisad Secvala misi struqtura mTlianobaSi zdris mimarTulebiT. saSualod TveSi Sinameurneobebis mTliani xarjebis dinamikam 2001-2007 wlebSi gviCvena, rom samomxmareblo fuladi xarjebi mTlianad 48 %-iT, gaizarda m.S. sursaTze, sasmelze, Tambaqos nawarmze-34,9% tansacmelsa da fexsacmelze-16,7% _iT, janmrTelobis dacvaze-123%-iT, saTbobsa da eleqtroenergiaze _ 97% ganaTlebaze, kulturasa da dasvenebaze-63,3%iT, transportze 126%-iT gaizarda, 56%-iT Semcirda saojaxo moxmarebis saqonelze gaweuli xarjebi. amasTan mosaxleobas ubralod fuli aRar rCeba danazogisaTvis da 2007 wels 2001 welTan SedarebiT dazogvisa an gasesxebisaTvis gankuTvnili fulis moculoba 5 %-iT Semcirda.
2007 wels samomxmareblo fuladi xarjebi saSualod TveSi 2001 welTan 67,3%-iT
gaizarda, sursaTze, sasmelze, Tambaqos nawarmze 52,9%-iT, tansacmelsa da fexsacmelze 31%-
iT, janmrTelobis dacvaze 150%-iT, saTbobsa da eleqtroenergiaze-125%-iT, transportze-
156% ganaTleba, kulturasa da dasvenebaze-84 %-iT. saojaxo moxmarebis saqonelze ki Semcirda 49,3%-iT.
siRaribis maCvneblebi araerTgvarovania regionebis mixedviT. daaxloebiT erTnairi tendenciaa TbilisSi, Sida qarTlsa da aWraSi, TiTqmis aseTivea samegerlosa da imerTSi, miuxedavad imisa, rom imereTSi siRaribis done maRalia samegrelosTan SedarebiT. siRaribis gavrceleba daaxloebiT erTnairia samcxe_javaxeTsa da kaxeTSi, qvemo qarTlsa da guriaSi. siRaribis gansakuTrebiT mkveTri zrda aRiniSneba kaxeTisa da samcxe-javaxeTis regionebSi, SedarebiT kleba_Tbilssa da imereTSi. cnobili faqtia, rom iZulebiTi (aranebayoflobiTi) siRaribe saSiSia sazogadoebisaTvis. am maCveneblebis fonze kidev ufro mtkivneulia fasebis zrdis procesi. inflacia Tanamedrove saqarTvelos erT-erTi mniSvnelovani problemaa. ekonomistebi sifrTxiliT ekidebian fasebis zrdis prognozirebas da acxadeben, rom saqarTvelos erT-erTi damamuxruWebeli faqtori swored inflaciuri molodinia. 2008 wlis I kvartalSi statistikis departamentis monacemebiT fasebis saerTo donem 3,5 procentiT miomata da wliurad 12,3% Seadgina. noemberSi inflaciam 6,3% Seadgina. es eWvs iwvevs, radganac lari dolaris mimarT swored noemberSi gaufasurda. im pirobebSi, rodesac moxmarebuli saqonlis 80% importirebulia, erovnuli valutis gaufasureba bunebrivia gamoiwvevs inflacias da Sesabamisad fasebis zrdas. inflaciis Sedegad aversisa da psp-s medikamentebze fasebi 25-30 %-iT gaizarda. saerTod TiTqmis yvela saxis importirebuli produqcia gaZvirda. statistikis departamentis monacemebiT 2009 wlis TebervalSi inflaciis wliuri maCvenebeli 4,4%-s Seadgens. miuxedavad imisa, rom noemberSi laris naxtomiseburi 18 procntiani gaufasureba moxda da yvela importirebul produqciaze fasi gaizarda inflaciis aseTi dabali maCvenebeli SeiZleba avxsnaT sawvavsa da xorbalze fasis SemcirebiT. fasebis mniSvnelovani mateba gamoikveTa agreTve samomxmareblo kalaTis iseT jgufebSi, rogoricaa surasaTi da ualkoholo sasmelebi(2008 wlis agvisto-noemberSi-
11,3%-iT,) xorci da xorcis produqtebi 12,1%-iT rZe, yveli da kvercxi-6,9%- jandacva 16,6%-iT, wyali, eleqtroenergia, airi da sxva saxis saTbobi 5,8%-T transporti-13,8%-
iT fasebi gaizarda kavSirgabmulobis seqtorSic.-4,4%-iT, imave periodSi fasebi Semcirda tansacmelze, Tambaqosa da alkoholur sasmelebze. zogadad saqarTveloSi 2008 wlis agvistodan noembris CaTvliT samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsma Seadgina 103,4 procenti. Sesabamisad, inflaciis donem 3.4 procenti. miuxedavad cnobili movlenebisa, rasac adgili hqonda saqarTveloSi 2008 wlis agvistoSi praqtikulad logikuri asaxva hpova inflaciis gaangariSebaSi. agvistoSi wina TvesTan SedarebiT inflaciis donem saqarTveloSi 3.4 procenti, xolo Semdgom oTx TveSi (agvisto -noemberi) - 2,7% Seadgina. 2,7 procentiani 10
inflaciis done SeiZleba aixsnas rogorc gare ise Sida faqtorebiT. gare faqtorebidan aucileblad unda aRiniSnos navTobsa da navTobproduqtebze saerTaSoriso bazris fasebis STambeWdavi Semcireba, saqarTveloSi erovnuli bankis mier ganxorcielebuli mkacri fuladsakredito politika da umniSvnelovanesi saerTaSoriso daxmareba mTeli msofliodan, romelic cnobili movlenebis dros miiRo saqarTvelom. praqtikulad samomxmareblo bazarze ar Seqmnila romelime produqtze gansakuTrebuli deficiti, romelic SeiZleba maRali samomxmareblo fasebiT gamoxatuliyo. Sesabamisad, 2008 wlis agvisto-noemberSi samomxmareblo fasebis saerTo done gaizarda 3,4%-iT. maT Soris sursaTze-7,0%-iT, rZe da rZis nawarmsa da kvercxze - 14,1%-iT, xilze 18,8%, xolo bostneulze 24,4%-iT. xilsa da bostneulze maRali inflaciis done tradiciulad sezonurobiT SeiZleba aixsnas da ara im movlenebiT, romelsac adgili hqonda saqarTveloSi 2008 wlis agvistoSi. Sesabamisad stabiluri iyo arasasursaTo saqonlis fasebi da momsaxurebis nawili, sadac gansakuTrebuli mzardi fasebi arcerT samomxmareblo kalaTaSi Semaval saqonelze ar dafiqsirebula
dasasruls unda iTqvas, rom Tanamedrove msoflio finansurma krizisma, saqarTvelos ekonomikaSi iseve, rogorc msoflios bevr qveyanaSi, mkveTrad gamoxatuli uaryofiTi tendenciebi gamoavlina. aman Taviseburi daRi daasva qveyanaSi mimdinare ekonomikur procesebs. miuxedavad imisa, rom saqarTvelos mTavroba da saerTaSoriso safinanso institutebi periodulad acxadeben dRes saqarTveloSi ekonomiur zrdis Sesaxeb, realoba mniSvnelovnad gansxvavdeba oficialuri angariSebisagan. samwuxarod aSkarad ,,gaCnda'' cxovrebis donis gauaresebis niSnebi. inflaciis zrdis tempma, farTo moxmarebis saqonelze fasebis gaumarTlebelma zrdam, laris msyidvelobiTi unarianobis Semcirebam myar valutasTan mimarTebaSi, moTxovna-mowodebas Soris disbalansis gamovlenam, Semosavalebsa da xarjebs Soris disproporciam kidev ufro gaamwvava siRaribe. iZulebiTi siRaribe ki sazogadoebisaTvis damangrevelia. imedia, saqarTvelos mTavroba gamoZebnis resursebs, rom msoflio finansuri krizisma kidev ar gaaRrmavos saqarTveloSi mimdinare ekonomikuri krizisi, rac, rogorc wesi, mZime tvirTad daawveba saqarTvelos mosaxleobas
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QRISTINE21
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