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kursach statistika

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????????? ?????????????? ??????????? ???????????????? ??????????? (???)
??49.04.00.000 ??
?????? ???????? ??????? ?????? 2-???-2 ?.? ??????????? _________________
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???????????? ?.?.?., ??????
?.?. ??????
2012
??????????
????????
????? ?????? ???????? ?????? ???????? ???????? ?????????????? ?????? ?????????????? ??????????, ? ?????? ??????? ????????? ??????????????? ?????????, ??????? ??? ??????? ? ?????????.
???????? ?????? ???????? ???? ?????????????? ?????????? ?? ????????????????? ???????????, ? ??????????? ?????????? ??????????? ??????????????? ?????????, ? ?????????????? ?????????????? ??????? ??????????? ?? ??????????.
???????? ??????
??????? 1
???????????????? ???????????(N), ???.?????? ??? (D),????? ????????????? ????? (Q), ???.?.??????. ???.111499588138929972717790731178110076764690158414054510082565119736616195652384789715188979841124092353491151278932181109902374935941166022766140612816937631761371129976207314975277172633158141388227321650129832146217108079333063181104122632477191007154882883206462963526392190228797269222715283331315234641224827782446620577214025571176879332671010646203627647159862653289032871639762982915365253830843153713047
??????? 2
???????????????????????? ????? ????????? ??????, ?2009 ???2010 ???2011 ?????????????????61916465924288062939???????41355457725911654857????43807468524716449727??????54589510476844146217???42532654026034069891????51810684855885962273????40907610446544758457??????57612677766844955086????????67127436326453258516???????65994400726263351316??????63253562044248452752???????44627531814803359796
1 ??????????? ? ?????? ??????????????? ????????? ?? ???
? ??????? ???????? ?????? ????? ???????? ??????? ? ???????????? ??????? ????????? (W) ? ?????? ??????, ? ?????? ????????????? ????? ??? ??????? ???. ??????????: ??????? 1.1
?
?????????????????? ???????????(N), ???.?????? ??? (D),
???. ???.????? ????????????? ????? (Q), ???.?.?????????? ??????? ????????? (W),???.?.?????????? ???????
????????? (W), ???.???11149958813891,218,342997271779070,9127,2631178110076760,579,3446901584140545,8822,96510082565119731,9625,4566161956523843,8731,767897151889791,0916,9384112409235348,6058,62911512789321811,8924,23109902374935943,6323,99116602276614062,1334,4912816937631763,8911,49137112997620732,9242,16149752771726332,7028,43158141388227323,3617,05165012983214622,9259,54171080793330632,847,351811041226324772,2411,111910071548828832,8615,38206462963526394,0945,87219022879726922,9831,93227152833313151,8439,63234641224827785,9926,40244662057721404,5944,1625571176879331,6330,98267101064620362,8714,99276471598626534,1024,71289032871639764,4031,80298291536525383,0618,53308431537130473,6118,23 ??????? ?????????? ????????????? ??????????? ??????????? ??? ?? ????????? ?????????, ??????? ?????????????? ??????????? ????? ???????????? ??????????.
1. ????????????? ??????????? ??????????? ??? ?? ??????????????? ??????????? (????. 1.2).
??????? 1.2
?????? ??? ??
??????????????? ??????-
?????,(N) ??????????, n
??????????? ???????
??????? ???????? ??????????????????? ???????????? ???,(D) ???.???
????? ????????????? ?????,(Q)
???.?.
?????????? ???????
????????? (W), ???.???
?????????? ???????
????????? (W),???.?.
411 - 539444750,03186 7499 914188,7222,10539 - 667596030,039105 63910 015167.8115,82667 - 7954137310,03184 7969 478119.7413,51795 - 9237208590,055126 69519 140145.9622,39923 - 10515259870,039119 78211 990120.5112,061051 - 117953011150,03968 6849 78660.378,75?????:30592 34570 323803.1194,63 ?????:
2. ????????????? ??????????? ??????????? ??? ?? ??????? (????. 1.3).
??????? 1.3
?????? ??? ??
??????? (D), ???. ???.???????, n
??????????????? ???????????,(N) ???
????? ????????????? ?????,(Q)
???.?.?????????? ???????
????????? (W), ???.????????????? ???????
????????? (W),???.?.7933 - 11607549331034051.5211,3811607 - 1528143279896671.4912,6815281 - 189556458716108130.7921.1518955 - 2262921082452475.928,4622629 - 263034306910507142.5516.32?????:30750119878330.8524.65 ?????: 3. ????????????? ??????????? ??????????? ??? ?? ?????? ????????????? ????? (????. 1.4).
??????? 1.4
?????? ??? ??
?????? ?????????????
????? (Q), ???. ?.???????, n
??????????????? ??????????? (N), ???
????? ??? (D), ???.???
?????????? ???????
????????? (W), ???.???
?????????? ???????
????????? (W),???.?.
676 - 1239436437105984.514,021239 - 18024302590519142,008,011802 - 236554046114743150.9914.232365 - 2928108004190946251.1735.252928 - 3491327393268037.0710,343491 - 40544299492398137.3722.51?????:3024451592345803.1194.63 ?????:
4. ????????????? ??????????? ??????????? ??? ?? ?????????? ??????? ????????? (????. 1.5).
??????? 1.5
?????? ??? ??
??????? ????????? (W),
???. ???.???????, n
??????????????? ??????????? (N) , ???
????? ??? (D), ???. ???.
????? ????????????? ????? (Q),
???.?.
?????????? ???????
????????? (W),???.?.
7.35 - 16.3577044763011570016.4816.35 - 25.35868611432752177826.6225.35 - 34.35864361875581827624.4434.35 - 43.35320868107547946,8943.35 - 52.35211125021247798,6852.35 - 61.35291253924499611,52?????:30244515923457032394.63 ?????:
5. ????????????? ??????????? ??????????? ??? ?? ??????????????? ??????????? (????. 1.6).
??????? 1.6
?????? ??? ??
??????? ?????????,
???. ?.???????, n
??????????????? ???????????, ???
????? ???, ???.???
????? ????????????? ?????,
???.?.
?????????? ???????
????????? (W),???.???.
0.57 - 1.574422162960395161.871.57 - 2.576520913459310285165.892.57 - 3.579752917963622112235.363.57 - 4.577546114239821469187.854.57 - 5.57146620577214044.165.57 - 6.57315655218110366107.98?????:302445159234570323803.11 ?????: ?? ?????? ?????? ????????????? ??????????? ??????????? ??? ?? ??????????????? ??????????? ??????? ??????? ?? ??????????? ???????????.
??????? 1.1. ???????????
??????? 1.2. ????????
??????? 1.3. ?????
??????? 1.4. ???????
?? ????????? ???????? ?????? ????? ??????? ?????????? ?????????????? ? ??????????? ???????????.
?????????????? ??????????? ?? ??????????????? ??????????? ???????????? ? ????. 1.7.
?????? ??? ??
??????????????? ??????-
?????,??????????, n????????? ??????????????? ???????????
??? ? ?????? , ???????????? ????? ?????????
?? ??? ? ??????, ???.???????? ????? ?????????,
???????????? ?? ???? ???
? ??????, ???. ?????? (?? 500 ???)3134184522817,33??????? (500-900 ???)1510666334272228,47??????? (?????? 900 ???)1212444284442370,33?????:3024451703237416,13 ??????? 1.7
??????????? ??????????? ???????????? ? ????. 1.8 ??
??????????? ??????????? ?????????????? ??????????? ???????????? ?? ???. 1.5.
??????? 1.5. ????????? ????????? ??????????? ??????????? ??????????? ??????????? ???????????? ?? ???. 1.6.
?????? ?? ??????? 1:
2 ?????? ?????? ????????? ?? ????????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ?????????
?? ????????? ???????? ?????? (??????? 1) ?????????? ?????????? ?????????? ????? ??? ?? ????? ????????????. ??? ?????????? ??? ?????????? ????? ????????? ?? ??????????????? ??????, ??????? ???????? ?????? ????????? ?? ??????????????? ?????? ?? ?????????? ????????????, ???????? ?????? ????????? ?? ???? ??????????? ???????????? ???, ? ????? ?????? ?????????? ??????. ????? ???????? ????????? ???????? ?????? ????????? ?? ???? ??????????? ???????????? ???, ?????????? ?? ????????? ?????????? ???????????? ?? ????????? ?????? ????????? ?? ???? ??????????? ???????????? ???, ?????????? ??? ?????? ?????????? ????????? ?????.
??. ?????? ?? 01.12.12
3 ?????? ? ????????? ?????????????? ?????? ??? ?? ?????????? ??????
3.1 ?????? ???????? ????????? ?????????????? ??????? ?????????
?? ??????? ?????, ??? ??????? ??????? ?????????? ?? ???????????.
???????????????????????? ????? ????????? ??????, ??????????????? ??????? ??? ??????? ??????
yi ???????? ??????????, i c
%
(i c - 100) 2
2009 ???2010 ???2011 ?????????1997,291502,972030,291843,52102,817,89???????1476,961634,711959,181690,2994,2632,91????1413,131511,351604,101509,5384,18250,18??????1819,631701,571540,571687,2694,0934,88???1372,002109,742254,551912,10106,6344,00????1727,002282,832075,772028,53113,13172,31????1319,581969,161885,711724,8296,1914,52??????1858,452186,321776,971940,58108,2267,60????????2237,571454,401950,531880,83104,8923,91???????2128,841292,651655,351692,2894,3731,65??????2108,431873,471758,401913,43106,7144,99???????1439,581715,521928,901694,6794,5130,17y ???=1793,15?(i c - 100) 2
=755 ?? ????????? ???????? ?????????? ????? ???? ????????? ?????????? ??????????, ??????????? ??????????? ???????? ???????? ????????? ?? ?????????? ???, ??????? ?????????????? ??????????:
s = v((S(i? - 100)2) / n),
??? i? - ?????? ?????????? ??? ??????? ??????; n - ????? ???????.
s = v((755 / 12)=7,93
?????: 3.2 ?????? ?????????? ????? ?? ??????????
??????? 3.2 - ?????????? ????? ????????? ?? 2011 ???
?????????? ?????????, ??????????? ?????, %??????????? ??????? ???????????? ????????????? ??????????? ???????? ?????? ?????? ?????? ?????? ?????? ??????????4288042880629396293968,13146,789,14???????5911610199654857117796107,76199,2617,11????471641491604972716752394,85355,1924,34??????6844121760146217213740148,09312,3031,05???603402779416989128363186,33470,0541,20????588593368006227334590494,52587,6850,25????6544740224758457404361111,96617,8458,74??????6844947069655086459447124,26671,2366,74????????6453253522858516517963110,28802,6575,24???????6263359786151316569279122,05908,9182,70??????424846403455275262203180,541464,1590,36???????480336883785979668182780,331419,5099,05 ?????????????, ???? ? 2011 ???? ???????? ?? 99,05%.
??????????? ???????????:
3.3 ?????????????? ??????????? ??????????? ?????????? ????? ?? ??????????
??????????? ?????????? ????? ?? ?????????? ???????? ????????? ??????????? ?????? ???????????. ?????? ??? ????????? ?????? ??????????? ?????????? ????? ?? ?????????? ??? ?????????? ?? ????????????? ? ?????????????? ??????????, ??????????? ?????? ???????????.
??????????? ?????? ??? ???????? ?? ???? ?????????? ?????? ?????????? ?????????? ? ?????????????? ?????-??????? ?? ??????????.
???????? ?? ???????????? ? ???????? ?????? ?????????? ???????????? ??? ?????? ?????????????? ? ???????????? ???????. ???? ?????????????? ?????? ??????????? ? ???, ??? ?? ?????? ???????? ? ???????? ?????? ?? ?????? ????????? ?? ?????? ???? ??????????? ??????????? ??????? ?????????? ????????? ????? ? ???????????? ? ???, ??????? ?????? ???? ??? ????????? ??????.
??????? 3.3 - ??????????? ?????????? ?????
??? ??????????? ?????????, ???. ??????????? ????????? ?????, %??????????? ????????????? ????? ?????? ???????? ????? ?????? ??????115611561166116613,313,52215613122163332946,626,98315734695163949339,9610,464156862631672660513,2814,005158878521650825516,6517,506160094521645990020,0420,99715521100416371153723,3324,46815611256516751321226,6428,01915721413716521486429,9731,521015791571616421650633,3235,001115951731016491815536,7038,491215811889116851984140,0542,071315622045316992154043,3745,671415542200816712321146,6649,211515552356316552486649,9652,721615922515516752654153,3356,271715682672316602820156,6659,791815972831916682986960,0463,331915682988716423151063,3766,812015603144716743318466,6870,362115763302416483483270,0273,852215853460916353646773,3877,322315683617716993816676,7080,922415643774116583982480,0284,442515883932916844150883,3988,012615934092216484315686,7691,502715644248616314478790,0894,962815674405316324641993,4098,422915554560816654808496,70101,9530155647164164349727100,00105,43 ???? ?? ???? 2011 ???? ???????????? ?? 5,43%. ?????? ??? ????????.
??????????? ?????
??? ??????????? ?????????,?????????? ????? ? ?????????? ???????????????. ????????????????????????????????????1156116611,06-1002156116331,05-723157316391,04-654156816721,07-1055158816501,04-626160016451,03-457155216371,05-858156116751,07-1139157216521,05-8010157916421,04-6311159516491,03-5412158116851,07-10413156216991,09-13714155416711,07-11615155516551,06-10016159216751,05-8317156816601,06-9218159716681,04-7119156816421,05-7420156016741,07-11421157616481,05-7222158516351,03-4923156816991,08-13124156416581,06-9425158816841,06-9626159316481,03-5527156416311,04-6728156716321,04-6529155516651,07-11030155616431,06-86????? ?? 30 ????47164497271,05 2563?(?)=1,054342 4 ??????????????? ????????? ??????? ?????????? ???????
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