# How to Apply Statistical Thinking Effectively - ASQ

код для вставкиHow to Apply Statistical Thinking Effectively 1997 FTC Short Course Lynne Hare - Nabisco Roger Hoerl - General Electric Ron Snee - Consultant 1 I. Introduction and Motivation 2 Overall Goal вЂў To better prepare attendees to apply Statistical Thinking effectively within their own organizations, to deliver improved results. 3 Objectives вЂў Obtain a common understanding of Statistical Thinking, its definition, and its application. вЂў Clarify the distinction between Statistical Thinking and statistical methods. вЂў Provide вЂњpracticeвЂќ in applying Statistical Thinking to real situations. вЂў Provide attendees the opportunity to address implementation issues specific to their situations. 4 Outline вЂў вЂў вЂў вЂў Introduction and motivation - 45 minutes What is Statistical Thinking? - 3 hours Lunch How can I apply Statistical Thinking effectively in my organization? - 3 hours вЂў Summary - 15 minutes вЂў Note: All sessions (except the summary) will involve interactive team breakouts. We are not smart enough to tell you the answers! 5 The Cost of the Status Quo 6 What will happen to us and to our profession if we do not promote statistical thinking? 7 If we do Nothing ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ 8 Cost of the Status Quo Viewed as irrelevant 30 Others will do Elim. depts and prof. soc. 25 Students not prepared Frequency Slow growth of discipline 20 I/G will do In-house Reduced contribution to society 15 Fail to attract good students Funding, support, resources reduced Good applied statisticians not available to hire 10 Fewer employment opportunities Continued alienation among A/I/G 5 Outside organizations will set the direction Less competitive US industry 0 Category Other 9 From: вЂњSPAIG Workshop a Success,вЂќ AMSTAT News, Aug.-Sept., 1997 Statistical Thinking and Reducing the Cost of the Status Quo 10 Statistical Thinking and Reducing the Cost of the Status Quo Cost of the Status Quo A. Statistics as a discipline is irrelevant and looses influence Using Statistical Thinking вЂў Makes statistics more relevant because of its focus on process and variation C. Decline of statistics departments and professional societies I. Reduced money, resources, support 11 Statistical Thinking and Reducing the Cost of the Status Quo Cost of the Status Quo D. Students not prepared for the future Using Statistical Thinking вЂў Making statistics relevant attracts good students and prepares them for the needs of the marketplace H. Failure to attract good students J. Good applied statisticians not available 12 Statistical Thinking and Reducing the Cost of the Status Quo Cost of the Status Quo B. Non-statisticians will do statistics Using Statistical Thinking вЂў B. and F. are good trends. Statisticians will influence these activities. вЂў There will always be a job for someone who has something relevant and useful to contribute. F. Industry and government will do in-house training K. Few job opportunities 13 Statistical Thinking and Reducing the Cost of the Status Quo Cost of the Status Quo Using Statistical Thinking H. Slow growth in technical advances in statistics вЂў Opportunities for technical advances will be identified. вЂў Broader use will increase contributions and help US industry be more competitive G. Reduced contribution of statistics to society N. US industry will be less competitive 14 Statistical Thinking and Reducing the Cost of the Status Quo Cost of the Status Quo Using Statistical Thinking M. Outside forces will вЂў Outside forces have and will determine the direction of the always determine the profession direction of our profession. A unified focus on Statistical Thinking will give statisticians greater control over their future. L. Continued alienation among academic, industry, and government statisticians 15 Value of Using Statistical Thinking вЂў Process focus provides the context and relevancy for using statistical methods вЂ“ How we do our work for our customers вЂў Results in broader and more effective use of statistical methods вЂ“ All parts of the organization вЂ“ Manage and improve processes вЂ“ Guide strategic and managerial action вЂ“ Provides вЂњsuctionвЂќ for statistical methods 16 II. What is Statistical Thinking? 17 Breakout Assignment вЂў Come up with an operational definition of вЂњStatistical Thinking.вЂќ вЂў Be prepared to report formally. вЂў Take 15 minutes to develop the definition. вЂў Do not worry about вЂњwordsmithing.вЂќ вЂў Each team will only have 1 minute to report. 18 Definition Statistical Thinking is a philosophy of learning and action based on the following fundamental principles: вЂў All work occurs in a system of interconnected processes, вЂў Variation exists in all processes, and .вЂў Understanding and reducing variation are keys to success Source: Glossary of Statistical Terms, ASQ Quality Press 19 Definition Statistical Thinking is a philosophy of learning and action based on the following fundamental principles: . Source: Glossary of Statistical Terms, ASQ Quality Press 20 Definition Statistical Thinking is a philosophy of learning and action based on the following fundamental principles: вЂў All work occurs in a system of interconnected processes, Source: Glossary of Statistical Terms, ASQ Quality Press 21 Definition Statistical Thinking is a philosophy of learning and action based on the following fundamental principles: вЂў All work occurs in a system of interconnected processes, вЂў Variation exists in all processes, and Source: Glossary of Statistical Terms, ASQ Quality Press 22 Definition Statistical Thinking is a philosophy of learning and action based on the following fundamental principles: вЂў All work occurs in a system of interconnected processes, вЂў Variation exists in all processes, and .вЂў Understanding and reducing variation are keys to success Source: Glossary of Statistical Terms, ASQ Quality Press 23 Relation between Statistical Thinking and Statistical Methods 24 Steps in Implementing Statistical Thinking All work is a process Processes are variable Change process Analyze process variation Develop process knowledge Reduce variation Improved quality Control process Satisfied: вЂў Employees вЂў Customers вЂў Shareholders вЂў Community 25 Statistical Thinking Key Concepts вЂў вЂў вЂў вЂў вЂў Process and systems thinking Variation Analysis increases knowledge Taking action Improvement Role of Data вЂў Quantify variation вЂў Measure effects 26 Statistical Thinking and Methods Process Variation Statistical Thinking Data Statistical Tools Statistical Methods 27 Comparison of Statistical Thinking and Statistical Methods Statistical Thinking Statistical Methods Overall approach Conceptual Technical Desired application Universal Targeted Primary requirement Knowledge Data Logical sequence Leads Reinforces 28 Without a Process View вЂў People have problems understanding the problem and their role in its solution (turf). вЂў It is difficult to define the scope of the problem. вЂў It is difficult to get to root causes. вЂў People get blamed when the process is the problem (85/15 Rule). вЂў Process management is ineffective вЂў Improvement is slowed вЂњYou canвЂ™t improve a process that you donвЂ™t understandвЂќ 29 Without Understanding Variation вЂў Management by the last datapoint вЂў ThereвЂ™s lots of firefighting вЂ“ Using special cause methods to solve common cause problems вЂў Tampering and micromanaging abound вЂў Goals and methods to attain them fail вЂў Understanding the process in handicapped вЂ“ Learning is slowed вЂў Process management is ineffective вЂў Improvement is slowed 30 Without Data вЂў Everyone is an expert: discussions produce more heat than light вЂў Historical memory is poor вЂў Difficult to get agreement on: вЂ“ What the problem is вЂ“ What success looks like вЂ“ Progress made вЂў Process management is ineffective вЂў Improvement is slowed 31 Without Statistical Thinking вЂў Your management and improvement processes are handicapped вЂў ItвЂ™s like вЂ“ Football without a passing attack вЂ“ Growing a lawn without fertilizer вЂ“ Doing research without measurements вЂ“ Playing golf without your irons вЂњEarly on, we failed to focus adequately on core work processes and statistics.вЂќ David Kearns and David Nelder, Xerox Corporation 32 Use of Statistical Thinking Statistical Thinking Element Process Variation Data Process reengineers Process/ Measurement Reengineers > > > Data analysts Special cause Hunters Improvers > > > > > > 33 Improvement Model Business Process Customer Data Process Improvement Problem Solving Improvement System 34 Statistical Thinking for Business Improvement Business Process Customer Data s is ly Pl an a An sis al y An Pl an Data Subject Matter Theory Process Knowledge Increases 35 36 Using Statistical Thinking Without Data вЂў вЂў вЂў вЂў вЂў вЂў вЂў Reduce the number of suppliers Use a variety of communication media Reduce tampering, micromanagement, and overcontrol Provide flexible benefits and work hours Use meeting management techniques Create project management systems Create, monitor, and update plans 37 Two Case Studies вЂў WhereвЂ™s the Beef? вЂў Golden Acres Group Discussions: (15 Min.) Reports: (7 Min. each) 38 Applications of Statistical Thinking WhereвЂ™s the Beef? Golden Acres ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ 39 Use of Statistical Thinking Depends on levels of activity and job responsibility. Strategic Executives Managerial processes to guide us Managerial Managers Where the work gets done Operational Workers Where we're headed 40 Examples of Statistical Thinking at the Strategic Level вЂў вЂў вЂў вЂў вЂў Executives use systems approach. Core processes have been flow charted Strategic direction defined and deployed. Measurement systems in place. Employee, customer, and benchmarking studies are used to drive improvement. вЂў Experimentation is encouraged. 41 Examples of Managerial Processes Recruiting Coaching & Employee & Hiring Counseling Development Direction Core Business Processes Planning Budgeting Communication Customers Performance Recognition Evaluation & Rewards 42 Examples of Statistical Thinking at the Managerial Level вЂў вЂў вЂў вЂў вЂў вЂў вЂў Managers use meeting management techniques Standardized project management systems are in place. Both project process and results are reviewed. Process variation is considered when setting goals. Measurement is viewed as a process. The number of suppliers is reduced . A variety of communication media are used. 43 Examples of Statistical Thinking at the Operational Level вЂў Work processes are flowcharted and documented вЂў Key measurements are identified. вЂ“ Time plots displayed вЂў Process management and improvement utilize: вЂ“ Knowledge of variation, and вЂ“ Data вЂў Improvement activities focus on the process, not blaming employees. 44 Statistical Thinking Applications at Strategic and Managerial Levels вЂў Strategic вЂў Managerial Group Discussions: (15 Min.) Reports: (7 Min. each) 45 Applications of Statistical Thinking Strategic ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ Managerial ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ 46 Robustness - An Underused Concept вЂў Key aspect of Statistical Thinking вЂў Reduce the effects of uncontrollable variation in: вЂ“ Product design вЂ“ Process design вЂ“ Management practices вЂў Anticipate variation and reduce its effects 47 Robustness of Product and Process Design вЂў A third way to reduce variation вЂў Anticipate variation вЂ“ Design the process or product to be insensitive to variation вЂў A robust process or product is more likely to perform as expected вЂў 100% inspection cannot provide robustness 48 Robust Products are Designed in Anticipation of Customer Use вЂў вЂў вЂў вЂў вЂў Washing machine tops User-friendly computers and software Low-maintenance automobiles 5 mph bumpers Medical instruments for home use 49 Product and Process Robustness вЂў Product Performance is insensitive to variations in conditions of manufacture, distribution, use and disposal. вЂў Process Performance is insensitive to uncontrollable variations in process вЂ“ Inputs вЂ“ Transformations - activities - steps вЂ“ External factors 50 Robustness in Management вЂў Develop strategies that are insensitive to economic trends and cycles вЂў Design a project system that is insensitive to вЂ“ Personnel changes вЂ“ Changes in project scope вЂ“ Variations in business conditions вЂў Respond to differing employee needs вЂ“ Adopt flexible work hours вЂ“ Provide вЂњcafeteriaвЂќ benefits package вЂў Enable personnel to adapt to changing business needs вЂў Ensure meeting effectiveness is not dependent on facilities, equipment, or participants 51 Three Ways to Reduce Variation and Improve Quality Control the Process: Eliminate Special Cause Variation Improve the System: Reduce Common Cause Variation Quality Improvement Anticipate Variation: Design Robust Processes and Products 52 Process Robustness Analysis вЂў Identify Those Uncontrollable Factors that Affect Process Performance вЂ“ вЂ“ вЂ“ вЂ“ вЂў Weather Customer Use of Products Employee Knowledge, Skills, Experience, Work Habit Age of Equipment Design the Process to be Insensitive to the Uncontrollable Variations in the Factors 53 III. How can I apply Statistical Thinking effectively in my organization? 54 The barriers that stand between my organization and the implementation of Statistical Thinking are: ________________________________ ________________________________. 55 Affinity Mapping вЂў Phrase or Complete Sentence вЂў One Idea to a Card вЂў Place Randomly 56 Affinity Mapping вЂў Don't Talk вЂў Use "Other" Hand вЂў Group Like Ideas 57 Affinity Mapping вЂў Name the Clusters using Headers вЂў Name Captures Uniqueness of Elements 58 Interrelationship Digraph вЂў Place Headers in Circle 59 Interrelationship Digraph вЂў вЂў вЂў вЂў One Header at a Time Arrows Indicate Primary Cause Arrows One Way Only May Have No Arrow 60 Interrelationship Digraph вЂў вЂў вЂў вЂў Complete the Circle Label "In / OutвЂќ High Number of "Ins" are Effects High Number of "Outs" are Drivers (Root Causes) 2/4 5/0 2/5 2/2 0/5 2/1 4/0 2/3 2/1 61 Barriers to Statistical Thinking вЂў вЂў вЂў вЂў вЂў вЂў вЂў вЂў Lack of training Threat to authority Not a business method Don't understand it Fear of statistics Unwilling to change Too busy Don't want to be confused by the facts 49th AQC, 5/23/95 62 Barriers to Statistical Thinking 4/0 DonвЂ™t want to be confused by the facts 2/4 Lack of training Key: In/Out 3/1 Threat to authority 3/0 0/2 Not a business method Too busy 2/2 Unwilling to change 2/4 1/4 Fear of statistics DonвЂ™t understand it 49th AQC, 5/23/95 63 Circle of Influence 64 Circle of Influence I cannot control or influence I can influence I can control 65 Expanding Your Circle of Influence вЂў Find a champion вЂў Get on important teams вЂў Develop statistically-based management systems вЂ“ Product quality management вЂ“ Strategy of experimentation вЂ“ Process management вЂў Circulate information on other companies вЂ“ Six sigma activity of GE, Kodak, and Allied Signal вЂў Spur executives to action вЂ“ Do customer surveys that are actionable вЂ“ Root cause analysis of customer complaint data 66 Breakout Assignment Brainstorm ideas for addressing major barriers to implementing Statistical Thinking. Come to agreement on best ideas. Discussion Reports 30 Minutes 15 Minutes 67 Individual Breakout вЂў Develop a personal implementation plan to improve the quantity and quality of statistical thinking applications in your organization. вЂў Focus on the вЂњcircle of influence.вЂќ вЂў Consider both long and short term actions. вЂў Keep in mind the barriers and potential solutions discussed which are relevant to your situation. вЂў The plan should involve tangible actions, not just broad goals; i.e, вЂњI will set up a meeting withвЂ¦вЂќ versus вЂњI will champion the cause ofвЂ¦вЂќ. 68 Breakout Format вЂў Take 45 minutes to work on your plan. вЂў Feel free to ask the session leaders, or other participants for advice. вЂў Be creative! Use text, diagrams, bullet points, etc. вЂў You may wish to begin with a brief description of your unique situation, including barriers. вЂў We will ask a few volunteers to report their plans, to provide a benchmark for others. вЂў The reports will be limited to 2 minutes. 69 Summary Value of Using Statistical Thinking вЂў Process focus provides the context and relevancy for using statistical methods вЂ“ How we do our work for our customers вЂў Results in broader and more effective use of statistical methods вЂ“ All parts of the organization вЂ“ Manage and improve processes вЂ“ Guide strategic and managerial action вЂ“ Provides вЂњsuctionвЂќ for statistical methods 70 Feedback for Improvement ___________________ ___________________ Did Well Could do Better ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ 71

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