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Mobile Research for Google by J'son & Partners Consulting

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Google announced at «Google Mobile Day» in Moscow October 26, 2011 the results of "Mobile internet and Smartphone market in Russia" research , conducted by J'son & Partners Consulting
Google Confidential and Proprietary
Prepared by J'son
& Partners Consulting for Google
Mobile Internet in Russia
Android and Mobile Marketing, Google Russia
Android and Mobile Marketing, Google Russia
Table of Contents 1.
Mobile Internet users 1.1. Number of active mobile Internet users
1.2. Number of active mobile Internet users by regions of Russia
1.3. User profile
2.
Mobile Internet access devices
2.1. Overview of mobile Internet access devices
2.2. Tablet PCs
2.3. Smartphones
3.
Mobile Internet usage on smartphones
3.1. Frequency of mobile Internet usage
3.2. Average duration of daily session 3.3. Mobile Internet usage experience
3.4. Places where smartphones
are used
3.5. Incentivising smartphone
usage
3.6. Mobile Internet advertising
3.7. Using a smartphone
to make purchases
3.8. Purchases with a smartphone
3.9. Reasons for using mobile Internet: top 10 actions 3.9.1 Reasons for using mobile Internet: search applications
3.9.2 Reasons for using mobile Internet: video applications
3.9.3 Reasons for using mobile Internet: social networking sites
4.
Technical parameters for mobile Internet usage
4.1. 3G network coverage map 4.2. Mobile Internet traffic
4.3. Average traffic for one subscriber
4.4. Cost of mobile Internet
5.
Forecasts, trends and barriers for mobile Internet development in Russia
5.1. The dynamic of smartphone
prices and forecast
5.2. Dynamic for 3G network coverage
5.3. Growth of sales market for smartphones
and other mobile Internet access devices
2
1. Mobile Internet users
Number of subscribers, million
Average
traffic per 1 subscriber, MB
Total traffic per month, TB
3G tablets
0.3
250
75
USB modems
10.3
1,430
14,729
Smartphones
12.0
121
1,452
Mobile phones
27.2
14
381
1.1. Number of active Internet users from mobile devices as of the first six months of 2011
Data traffic from smartphones
accounts for about 75% of all data traffic from mobile devices*
*In this study, the term ?mobile device? is understood as smartphones
, mobile telephones and tablet PCs.
3G tablets
Mobile phones
Smartphones
0,3
27,2
12
250
14
121
75
381
1 452
Traffic per month, TB
Number of subscribers, million
МBOU 3
2009A
2010A
2011E
2012F
2013F
34
39
43
48
53
1. Mobile Internet users
1.2. Number and share of the population of active Internet users from mobile devices by region of Russia
The development of the mobile Internet is rapidly eradicating the ?digital divide? in the outlying regions of Russia. The share of active* data subscribers in Moscow and St Petersburg accounts for around 40% of the total population
5
-
20%
20
-
25%
25
-
30%
30
-
35% more than 35% Share of data subscribers in the total population by region of Russia, as of the end of Q2 2011:
28% of the population of Russia who are active data users** **as of Q2 2011
Subscribers for data
from mobile devices, million people
* An active data subscriber is a subscriber who has used a data service at least once in the last month 4
Gender
18 -
24
25 -
34
35 -
44
45 -
54
55 +
Average age: 30.8
Men
Women
Age
Education
Employment status
Primary
Secondary
Higher
Full time
Part
-
time employment
Student
Unemployed
/
Working from home
Monthly household
income
High
(more than RUB 50,000) Average
(RUB 25,001 ?
50,000) Low
(RUB 25,000 and lower) 2%
11%
20%
31%
37%
39%
61%
60%
36%
4%
8%
11%
12%
67%
24%
42%
27%
1. Mobile Internet users
1.3. Smartphone user profile General demographic characteristics
5
Age
1. Mobile Internet users
1.3. Smartphone user profile. Demographic characteristics by operating system
Gender
Men are the principal users of smartphones
. The majority of smartphone
users are aged between 18 and 34.
iOS
Android
Windows Mobile/Phone
Symbian
41%
40%
32%
28%
59%
60%
68%
72%
Женщины
Мужчины
iOS
Android
Windows Mobile/Phone
Symbian
49%
42%
42%
27%
30%
28%
28%
31%
14%
20%
17%
29%
8%
8%
12%
8%
2%
1%
5%
18
-
24
25
-
34
35
-
44
45
-
54
55 и старше
6
Women
55 and older
Men
1. Mobile Internet users
1.3. Smartphone user profile. Experience of smartphone
usage by operating system
Of smartphone
owners on the Android platform, the greatest share is occupied by new users (with less than one year?s experience of smartphone
use). For many smartphone
users on the Android platform, this is their first ?smart telephone?
How long have you been using smartphones
?
Android
iOS
Windows Mobile/Phon
e
Symbian
61%
44%
34%
24%
39%
56%
66%
76%
До года
Более года
Less than a year
More than a year
Symbian
Windowa Mobile/Phone
iOS
Android
7
2. Mobile Internet access devices 2.1. Overview of mobile Internet access devices: tablet PCs
In 2010, the sales volume for tablet PCs in Russia came to around 400,000 devices ?
approximately 10 times less than smartphone
sales. In 2011, we expect the size of the tablet PC market to double
8
Sales volume for PC tablets in Russia, million items 2. Mobile Internet access devices Sales volume for smartphones
in Russia, million items 2009A
2010A
2011E
2012F
2013F
1,9
3,9
8,6
11,8
15
The volume of smartphone
sales* in Russia will double in 2011 compared with that of 2010
* The smartphone
is defined as a multi
-
functional mobile communication device. The following main criteria identify a device as a smartphone
:
?
the operating system that manages the device and enables the installation of additional applications, including those from ex
te
rnal developers (Java2Me applications are not included): Symbian
(version 6 and higher), Windows OS for mobile devices, Palm OS, Linux, Android, Maemo
; Bada
?
advanced communication features ?
email, HTML page viewing, data synchronisation with PC, etc.;
?
support for standard business applications.
Share of smartphones
in total sales of mobile terminals in Russia, % 6%
11%
22%
29%
36%
2009A
2010A
2011E
2012F
2013F
2.2. Overview of mobile Internet access devices: smartphones
9
2. Mobile Internet access devices 2008A
2009A
2010A
2011E
81,2%
66,7%
71,6%
45,1%
0,8%
11,4%
33,9%
3,8%
13,5%
2,8%
6,0%
4,5%
5,0%
15,4%
26,3%
8,3%
2,4%
Other
WM
Apple
Bada
Android
Symbian
1Q2011A
2Q2011A
3Q2011E
4Q2011F
67%
58%
42%
30%
17%
25%
37%
45%
10%
11%
15%
16%
4%
4%
5%
6%
3%
2%
2%
3%
Other
WM
Apple
Bada
Android
Symbian
In Q4 2011 in Russia, sales of Android smartphones
will for the first time exceed sales of Symbian
smartphones
Smartphone sales by operating systems: 2008
-
2011
Smartphone sales by operating system: 2011
2.2.1 Smartphones
by operating system
10
2008A
2009A
2010A
2011E
2012F
2013F
518
452
377
331
305
285
Over the last 3 years, the average price for a smartphone
has fallen by 33%. There has been a significant increase in the share of sales of smartphones
costing less than 200 USD
Market structure for smartphone
sales by price segment
The average price of a smartphone
at the end of the first six months of 2011 was
350 USD
2
. Mobile Internet access dev
ices 2.2.2 Average price of smartphones
Average price of a smartphone
, USD
11
more than 500 USD
less than 200 USD
350
-
500 USD
200
-
350 USD
Dynamic of the average smartphone
price by operating system, USD
The average price of an Apple smartphone
during the last 2 years has increased by 70%, prices for smartphones
on Android, Symbian
and WM platforms have fallen
744
637
497
483
462
415
415
393
Android
683
707
719
776
986
1000
981
1066
1189
1155
Apple
399
437
488
402
391
352
306
237
300
293
Symbian
414
492
472
472
475
435
434
404
462
351
Windows Mobile 2. Mobile Internet access devices 2.2.3 Average price of smartphones
by operating system 12
The average retail price for a smartphone
by region of Russia as at the end of the first six months of 2011: The highest prices for smartphones
?
are in the outlying regions of Russia and the Moscow Region. The high cost for a smartphone
in Moscow of around 390 USD is explained by Russia?s highest share of sales in this region for Apple and Android smartphones
2. Mobile Internet access devices 2.2.4 Average retail price for smartphones
by region
More than 350 USD
330
-
350 USD
324
-
330 USD
On average for Russia
350
Moscow
390
St Petersburg
361
Average cost of a smartphone
in the first six months of 2011, USD
13
Over 5%
3 ?
5%
2 ?
3%
1 ?
2% 0 ?
1% Around 50% of all smartphones
are sold in the Top 10 Russian regions Region
Share
Moscow region, Moscow
22.4%
Leningrad Region
6.5%
Krasnodar Krai
4.2%
Sverdlovsk Region
3.5%
Rostov Region
2.7%
Tatarstan Republic
2.7%
Chelyabinsk Region
2.5%
Nizhniy Novgorod Region
2.5%
Samara Region
2.5%
Republic of Bashkortostan
2.4%
2. Mobile Internet access devices 2.2.5 Regional structure of smartphone
sales
Smartphone sales structure, Top 10 regions, first six months of 2011
Regional sales structure for smartphones
, first six months of 2011:
The Top 10 regions of Russia currently account for around a half of all smartphone
sales
14
2. Mobile Internet access devices 2.2.6 Specific sales of smartphones
by region
The highest specific sales of smartphones
-
at more than 5 devices per 1000 people per month -
are recorded in Moscow and the Moscow Region. 5 ?
5.5
4 -
5
3 -
4 0 -
3
Region
Share
Moscow region, Moscow
5.50
Khabarovsk Krai
4.61
Kaluga region
4.35
Krasnodar Krai
4.18
Tyumen Region
4.15
Sverdlovsk Region
4.09
Leningrad Region 4.00
Samara Region
3.97
Nizhniy Novgorod Region
3.79
Sakhalin Oblast
3.72
Specific sales of smartphones
, Top 10 regions, first six months of 2011
Specific sales of smartphones
: number of devices per 1000 people per month
15
16
303
452
488
547
2008
2009
2010
1H2011
69
122
142
187
2008
2009
2010
1H2011
Processor speed (MHz)
RAM (MB)
*Average
weighted
indicators
for
2008
smartphone
performance
?
first
six
months
of
2011
Processor speed and RAM*
In the last 3 years, the smartphone
has become twice as fast and three times ?smarter?
2. Mobile Internet access devices 2.2.7 Smartphone profile: performance
16
3G module
GPS module
In 3 years, there has been a significant increase in the share of touchscreen
and GPS smartphones
as well as the average screen size of smartphones
2. Mobile Internet access devices 2.2.8 Smartphone profile: functional
Touch Screen
Screen size (inches)*
2008
2009
2010
1H 2011
89%
82%
71%
73%
11%
18%
29%
27%
Нет
Есть
2008
2009
2010
1H 2011
33%
71%
72%
80%
67%
29%
28%
20%
Нет
Есть
2008
2009
2010
1H 2011
22%
62%
79%
85%
78%
38%
21%
15%
Нет
Есть
2.4
2.9
3.0
3.1
2008
2009
2010
1H 2011
Дюймы
*
average
weighted
indicator
for
2008
screen
size
?
first
six
months
of
2011
17
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
Inches
Number of installed applications
Number of applications used over the last 30 days
Number of charged applications
15 applications on average
An average of 6 applications An average of 3 applications 2. Mobile Internet access devices 2.2.9 Smartphone profile: average number of applications installed and used
On average, 15 applications are installed on a smartphone
, and over the last 30 days 6 applications were used. Charged applications account for 20% of the total number of installed applications
How many applications are currently installed on your smartphone
?
How many applications have you used in the last 30 days?
How many charged applications have you purchased through an app store?
73%
10%
3%
19%
45%
20%
6%
34%
37%
1%
8%
22%
1%
3%
14%
4%
not one
1 -
4
applications
5 -
10
applications
11 -
20 applications
21 -
50 applications
51+ applications
18
One of the fastest growing market segments for mobile content is the sale of applications in app stores. In 2010, the share of this segment increased by a factor of 2.5.
2. Mobile Internet access devices 2.3. Mobile content market
applications
(including games) -
content for smartphones
with OS RBT
(
Ringback
Tone) -
melody instead of ringtone
graphic content -
pictures and screensavers for mobiles video (incl. TV content) -
pay
-
per
-
view and/or downloading video to a mobile phone
games
-
Java games for phones with no OS
information content
?
subscription (
news, events guide, weather, currency exchange rates)
19
1133
1431
1798
2582
mobile phone content market
2009
2010
2011
2012
40
43
44
45
584
701
766
898
79
86
88
88
55
143
255
497
360
286
292
296
70
172
355
760
Information content
audio and RBT
graphic content
video and TV
games
applications
Mobile content market by content type, USD million
Android
Palm
Apple
BlackBerry
Windows
Nokia
64%
32%
28%
24%
22%
15%
36%
68%
72%
76%
78%
85%
Ratio of paid to free applications, available to download from app stores*
Average cost* of apps by type, USD:
Average app cost in store: 3.62 USD
Среднее 31%
69%
Бесплатные
Платные
Average
Free
Charged
2. Mobile Internet access devices 2.3.1 Mobile content market: app stores
A large proportion of the applications currently available in stores are paid apps. Average cost of an application is USD 3.62
*
data as at the end of second quarter of 2011
Games
News
Photography
Social
Music
Entertainment
Weather
Productivity
Sport
Finances
Health/Fitness
Lifestyle
Travel
Education
Books
Navigation
Business
1.97
2.05
2.11
2.28
2.45
2.5
2.53
2.74
2.85
2.93
2.97
3
3.66
3.71
4.44
4.99
5.7
20
Игры Развлечения
Инструменты
Социальные сети
Продуктивити
Стиль жизни
Фотография
Музыка
Путешествия
Здоровье и фитнес
24%
20%
12%
7%
7%
7%
5%
4%
2%
2%
23%
11%
6%
2%
2%
6%
1%
3%
3%
2%
Games
Games
Entertainment
Tools
Social networking sites
Productivity
Lifestyle
Photography
Music
Travel
Health and fitness
Dynamic of the total number of user app downloads in app stores, million units, 2009
-
2011.
2009
2010
2011
26
76
256
1 Q 2011 2 Q 2011
686
836
Growth dynamic of the total number of apps available in app stores for the first six months of 2011, thousand units.
Share of apps by type: in the structure of applications, available in app stores and in the structure of user downloads, first half of 2011 2. Mobile Internet access devices 2.3.2 Mobile content market: app stores
For the period from 2009 to the present, the number of app downloads from app stores has increased almost 10
-
fold. The most popular apps are games and entertainment applications
Share of apps downloaded
Share of available apps
21
3.1. Frequency of mobile Internet use (days a week)
Smartphone
PC
3. Mobile Internet usage on smartphones
32% of smartphone
owners use mobile Internet daily; around a half of users use it 4 to 7 days a week. A PC is used far more often for daily Internet access
How often in the last week have you been on the Internet (using a PC or smartphone
)?
22
7 of 7
6 of 7
5 of 7
4 of 7
3 of 7
2 of 7
1 of 7
0
5%
5%
29%
1%
17%
70%
30%
5%
15%
17%
4%
2%
One long
One short
Several long
Several short
Short and long
n/a
Smartphone
PC
3.2. Average duration of daily session 3. Mobile Internet usage on smartphones
A PC is used more often than smartphones
for several long online sessions a day. Smartphones
are used more often for one short online session.
How much time did you spend on the Internet yesterday (using a PC or a smartphone
)?
23
Experience of smartphone
usage
53%
47
%
Да
Нет
For 53% of users, this is their first smartphone
. 39% of smartphone
users have less than one year?s experience 3.3. Mobile Internet usage experience
3. Mobile Internet usage on smartphones
10%
9%
9%
15%
18%
17%
13%
9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Is this your first smartphone
?
How long have you used your smartphone
?
24
Yes
No
Smartphones
are used most often at home, ?on the go? and at work
Any time
In the last 7 days
At home
On the go
At work
On public transport
In a cafe
In shops
In public places
In a restaurant
At school
At the airport
At the doctor?s
Somewhere else
3.4. Places where smartphones
are used
3. Mobile Internet usage on smartphones
Where do you use your smartphone
?
Where have you used your smartphone
in the last 7 days?
25
The most common reasons for using smartphones
: ?to save time?, ?Internet access when other means are not available? and ?when I need specific information urgently? To save time
To access the Internet when other means are not available
To obtain information that I need urgently
A fear of missing something important (for example, messages, letters or news from friends and acquaintances)
Mobile Internet is an essential feature of modern life
The smartphone as a discrete device for Internet access at work, at school and so on
Mobile Internet as the cheapest way of accessing the Web
Using mobile Internet on a smartphone because there is no other means of accessing the Web at home
3.5. Incentivising smartphone
usage
3. Mobile Internet usage on smartphones
To what extent do you agree with the following statements
.
26
10%
20%
23%
21%
25%
Constantly
Frequently
Occasionally
Rarely
Never
In search engines
On video sites
On retailers' websites
In apps
Video advertising
Other sources
No response
3.6. Mobile Internet advertising
3. Mobile Internet usage on smartphones
90% of users notice mobile advertising when using mobile Internet from smartphones
How often do you come across advertising on the Internet or in apps on your smartphone?
Where do you encounter advertising?
27
21%
20%
18%
One fifth of all smartphone users have used their smartphone to obtain information about products when making purchases
Have you used your smartphone
to compare prices and search for product information
Have you changed your opinion about a product or service in a shop based on the information that you received
Have you changed your opinion about a product or service online based on the information that you received 3.7. Using a smartphone to make purchases
3. Mobile Internet usage on smartphones
Specifically:
Share of smartphone users
Question: Do you agree with the following statements?
28
23% have already made purchases* using their smartphone. Around a half of them made a purchase with their smartphone in the last month Yes
No
Yes
No
3.8. Purchases with a smartphone
3. Mobile Internet usage on smartphones
*
The definition of a purchase includes the purchase of paid content
?
Have you ever bought anything online using a smartphone?
?
Have you bought anything online with your smartphone in the last month?
?
How often do you make purchases online using a smartphone?
29
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
Less than once a month
74%
73%
72%
70%
68%
64%
60%
60%
52%
50%
46%
45%
42%
42%
40%
39%
25%
30%
25%
25%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Top
-
10 reasons for using mobile Internet
Email
Listening to music
Viewing websites Using search engines
Photos and videos Social networking sites
Maps and navigation Games Visiting blogs and forums
Reading news on press and media sites
Any time
In the last 7 days
The most popular reasons for using mobile Internet on smartphones: reading emails, listening to music and viewing websites
3.9. Reasons for using mobile Internet
3. Mobile Internet usage on smartphones
?
Mark all the actions that you have ever performed on your smartphone.
?
Mark all the actions that you have performed on your smartphone during the last 7 days
.
30
While using their smartphones, owners often listen to music, watch videos and TV programmes or browse the Internet using other devices 62%
42%
41%
38%
24%
18%
10%
17%
2%
Listening to music
Watching videos (online and offline)
Watching TV programmes (online and offline)
Browsing the Internet on any other device (such as a PC)
Reading books
Video games
Reading newspapers and magazines
Only the above actions when using my smartphone
online
None of the above
3.9.1 Simultaneous usage
3. Mobile Internet usage on smartphones
31
Which of the actions listed do you perform (using other devices) while you are browsing the Internet on your smartphone?
Smartphone
PC
3.9.2 Reasons for using mobile Internet: search applications
3. Mobile Internet usage on smartphones
40% of users use their smartphones for searching the Internet on a daily basis. A PC is used more often for daily access to search engines
How often do you use search engines (Google, Yahoo!, Bing etc.) on your PC/Smartphone?
32
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
Less than once a month
Smartphone
PC
3.9.3 Reasons for using mobile Internet: video applications (watching videos)
3. Mobile Internet usage on smartphones
28% of users use video applications on smartphones at least once a week. For PC users the figure is 85%
How often do you watch videos online on your smartphone (via a browser or app)?
33
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
Less than once a month
Never
Smartphone
PC
3.9.4 Reasons for using mobile Internet: Social networking sites
3. Mobile Internet usage on smartphones
52% of users use their smartphone to visit social networking sites at least once a week. How often do you visit social networking sites on your smartphone (via a browser or app)?
34
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
Less than once a month
Never
4. Technical parameters for mobile Internet usage
4.1. 3G coverage map as of 2010
-
2011
The share of the population living in areas covered by 3G networks of mobile operators
70 ?
97%
60 ?
70% 50 ?
60%
40 ?
50%
0 ?
40%
2010
1 half
2011
At the end of the first half of 2011, the share of the population living in regions covered by 3G networks was more than 50% in the majority of Russian regions
35
According to the forecasts of J?son
& Partners Consulting, Internet access traffic from mobile devices will ?double? every year over the next few years against a continually falling cost
Drivers:
?
An increase in the total number of smartphone
users
?
Development of coverage and quality of service of 3G network operators
4. Technical parameters for mobile Internet usage
4.2. Mobile Internet access traffic, PB
5
10
25
48
104
7,1
4,2
2,8
1,9
1,3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2009A
2010A
2011E
2012F
2013F
Трафик, ПБ
Средняя стоимость 1МБ, руб.
36
Traffic, PB
Average cost of 1MB, RUB
As of the end of the first half of 2011, average traffic per smartphone
user was 121 MB a month
4. Technical parameters for mobile Internet usage
4.3. Average traffic for one subscriber, MB
2010
1st half of
2011
2010
1
st
half of 2011
On average for Russia
85
121
Moscow
89
166
St Petersburg
100
143
Average traffic per 1 subscriber per month, MB
over 150
100
-
150
50
-
100
25
-
50
0
-
25
37
2010
1st half of
2011
4. Technical parameters for mobile Internet usage
4.4. Cost of mobile Internet
2010
1
st
half of 2011
On average for Russia
4
3
Moscow
6
3
St Petersburg
2
2
Average cost per 1 MB of traffic from a smartphone, roubles
As of the end of the first half of 2011, the average cost per 1 MB of traffic for mobile Internet smartphone
users was 3 roubles
More than 5
3 -
5
Less than 3
38
5. Forecasts, trends and barriers for mobile Internet development in Russia
5.1. Growth of sales market for smartphones
and other mobile Internet access devices
2009A
2010A
2011E
2012F
2013F
1,9
3,9
8,6
11,8
15
Sales volume for PC tablets in Russia, million items Sales volume for smartphones
in Russia, million items Sales drivers:
?
The current level of technology development facilitates the production of inexpensive smartphones
and PC tablets
?
Development of coverage and quality of service of 3G network operators
?
Mobile operators subsidise the purchase of smartphones
and PC tablets ?
Development and rise in popularity of mobile applications that require a ?functional? telephone and Internet access
?
Development of consumer credit programmes
According
to
forecasts
made
by
J?son
&
Partners
Consulting,
the
volume
of
smartphone
sales
in
Russia
will
be
15
million
devices
per
year
by
2013
.
39
0.4
0.74
1.02
1.23
.
40
5. Forecasts, trends and barriers for mobile Internet development in Russia
5.2. Growth in data traffic and the mobile content market
Mobile content market, USD billion Mobile data traffic, PB Drivers of growth in data traffic and the mobile content market:
?
reduction in the cost per 1 MB of traffic, including on account of a rise in sales of unlimited data tariffs
?
development of coverage and quality of 3G operator networks and increase in mobile Internet speeds
?
increase in the total number of users and a drop in the cost of smartphones
?
increase in the sales of content in app stores of mobile eco
-
systems
?
convergence of mobile and Internet spaces
According
to
forecasts
made
J?son
&
Partners
Consulting,
mobile
data
traffic
will
amount
to
104
PB
by
2013
,
while
the
mobile
content
market
will
grow
to
USD
3
.
1
billion
2009A
2010A
2011E
2012F
2013F
5
10
25
48
104
2009A
2010A
2011E
2012F
2013F
1,1
1,4
1,8
2,6
3,1
Автор
emuradyan
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