www.siemens.com/pof Pictures of the Future The Magazine for Research and Innovation | Spring 2009 Affordable Solutions Robust, Energy-Efficient Technologies for Developing Markets Product Life Cycle Planning Digital Watchmen Products that use fewer resources from raw materials to recycling Innovations that improve safety, from smart detectors to RFIDs Pictures of the Future | Editorial 2 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 S ome 125 years ago Werner von Siemens said, “I won’t sell the future for a short-term profit.” Today we use the term “sustainability” to describe this attitude. And the principle of thinking long term rather than being shortsighted has become more important than ever before. That is true not only of the worldwide system of finance and business, but also of the ef- fects that our actions — or lack of them — have on the environment and the climate. And here climate protection and eco- nomic growth are by no means mutually exclusive. On the contrary, in the years ahead, environmental technologies will be an engine of economic development. Barbara Kux is a member of the Siemens Managing Board, Head of Supply Chain Management and Chief Sustainability Officer at Siemens AG purchase price is cost-effective if the loco- motives’ energy consumption can be re- duced by as little as two percentage points (p. 24). The same principle applies to en- ergy-saving motors. Here, the purchase price represents less than three percent of total costs, while electricity accounts for 95 percent of lifetime costs. Such motors pay for themselves in less than two years, sometimes even within one year. Long-term thinking is also well worth the effort when it comes to buildings, and even entire cities. A study showing how Munich could become CO 2 -free, for in- stance, reveals that the additional costs required to boost the energy efficiency of most of the city’s buildings would amount to about €200 per resident annually. In the end, though, the measures would yield savings of at least €1,200 per resident per year — not to mention an annual reduc- tion of three million tons of CO 2 for the entire city (p. 6). Some improvements don’t even require big start-up investments — just an ability to see the “big picture” and all its intercon- nected aspects. Specialists at the Lifetime Management department at Siemens’ En- ergy Sector, for example, upgrade existing power plants by fine-tuning various param- eters, including pump flow rates and feed- water temperatures, and by adjusting the control systems accordingly. This reduces the time needed to start up plants by more than half — an optimization that pays for itself after just one year (p. 27). Siemens is also developing many simi- larly smart solutions for the unique needs of customers in developing countries and emerging markets (pp. 72–105) — includ- ing solar-powered energy-saving lamps for African regions that are far from power grids; affordable, robust equipment for monitoring pulse rates at maternity wards in rural India; and the combination of tradi- tional medicine and Western image pro- cessing technology in China. These examples confirm that one thing is paramount when it comes to intelligent solutions: people who understand not only the possibilities of modern technology, but also the requirements of different markets. Or, as Kuan Chung Tzu, a Chinese philoso- pher, put it 2,300 years ago, “If you are planning for one year, plant grain. If you are planning for a decade, plant trees. If you are planning for a lifetime, enlighten the people.” That is the essence of the principle of sustainability. Cover:Worldwide, 1.6 billion people either live in the dark at night or are forced to use expensive and danger- ous kerosene lanterns. But for fisher- men on Lake Victoria in Kenya, clean, affordable light is now available thanks to battery-powered lanterns from Osram that can be recharged at solar-powered “Energy Hubs.” That’s because such technologies are often focused on efficiency gains. Innovations in this sector can therefore conserve resources, thereby cutting costs. Just how effective this approach can be is covered in this issue of Pictures of the Future, which features many impressive examples of efficiency (pp.10–37). Energy- saving lamps, for instance, last 15 times longer than an incandescent light bulb of the same brightness, while consuming about a fifth of the electricity. As a result, the extra purchase cost can be recouped within 800 hours. What’s more, thanks to the lower electricity consumption involved, less carbon dioxide is produced. In fact, the amount saved per lamp is higher than the amount of carbon dioxide that a tree can absorb in an equal period of time (p. 16). At Siemens, life cycle assessments have become invaluable tools. They have been used to determine, for example, that over 90 percent of the environmental impact of household appliances occurs during opera- tion. Transport and recycling are nearly negligible factors, and even production adds only a few percentage points. Applying this knowledge, engineers have developed an entirely new heating pump for a dryer, which consumes 40 per- cent less electricity than the limit required by Europe’s Class A designation — making it the new energy-efficiency world cham- pion (p. 32). Siemens is conducting similar in-depth studies with regard to locomotives. The results show that a ten-percent increase in Seeing the Big Picture Pictures of the Future Contents Innovations for New Markets Digital Watchmen Life Cycle Planning Sections 110 Scenario 2025 Energy-Saving Sleuth 112 Trends Assessing Product Impact 116 Lamps Let There Be Savings! 118 Interview: Michael Braungart Remaking the Way We Make Things 120 Holistic Assessments Products from Dust to Dust 122 Interview: Stig Irving Olsen Developing a Holistic Approach to Environmental Impact 124 Rail Systems Timely Trains 127 Power Plant Optimization Oh What a Tune-Up! 130 Manufacturing High-Speed Throughput 132 Appliances Miracle in the Laundry Room 135 Facts and Forecasts The Energy-Efficiency Pay Off 136 Financing Clean Investment 140 Scenario 2025 Cold Comfort 142 Trends One Step Ahead 145 RFID Chips Products that Don’t Lie 148 Banking No More Mr. Nice Guy 150 Quantum Cryptography Code of Silence 152 Interview: Anton Zeilinger A Quantum Computer in Your Cell Phone 154 Neural Quantum Computers Catching Worms with Quanta 157 Parking Lots Driving out the Crooks 158 Facts and Forecasts Boom in IT Security Technologies 160 IT Security in Medicine Indefatigable Guardians 162 Bacteria Detection Closing in on Deadly Enemies 164 Fire Lab Where There’s Smoke, There’s... 1 172 Scenario 2025 Goddess of Wisdom 174 Trends Tapping New Sources of Hope 178 China Innovations Tailored for China 183 Smart Cameras for India Affordable Vision 184 Interview: Rajendra K. Pachauri Reflecting on the Simple Things 186 Interview: Nandan Nilekani Imagining India’s Future 188 Biomass in Brazil Sweet Savings 190 Interview: José Goldemberg Brazil’s Ethanol: Liquid Solar Energy 191 Facts and Forecasts Objective: Affordable Products 192 Energy Hubs for Africa Light for Lake Victoria 196 The Future of the Electric Car Electric Ecosystem 102 Interview: Eileen Claussen Toward an Energy-Efficient U.S. 103 Saving Energy in the U.S. 00 4 Short Takes News from Siemens’ Labs 00 6 Study of a CO 2 -Free Munich Paths to a Better Planet 0 38 Research in Russia Fresh Oil from Old Wells 0 68 Economic Crisis Engines of Tomorrow’s Growth 69 Interview: Ottmar Edenhofer Climate Protection: Not Optional 71 Interview: E.-U. v. Weizsäcker Efficiency and Civilization 106 Feedback / Preview Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 3 Pictures of the Future | Short Takes 4 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 5 T he Acuson SC2000 is the world’s first ultrasound sys- tem that can generate full vol- ume images of the heart in a sin- gle heartbeat in real time. An unprecedented information rate of 40 volumes per second at a depth of 16 cm replaces conven- tional techniques requiring four or more heartbeats to stitch to- gether a volume. Enabled by the active cooling technology in the transducer, the system’s full-vol- ume acquisition capability has the potential to improve diagnos- tic confidence and to reduce exam times. In addition, the new system allows the examination of a wider range of patients, including those with arrhythmias and those who cannot hold their breath or stay still long enough. Using intelligent software and an expert database, the Acuson SC2000 recognizes anatomical patterns and land- marks and enables automatic measurements. Safe Drinking R esearchers from Siemens Corporate Technology have developed a fully automatic system to test drinking water for the presence of toxic substances. A lab demonstration model can analyze water samples every 15 minutes and can detect over 100 toxins, such as insecticides. At the heart of the system is a biosensor that measures the activity of special enzymes. The sig- nal is transmitted electrically, which means that the sys- tem is fast, highly sensitive, and robust. Cold? No Way! Winning Team P ictures of the Future, the Siemens magazine for re- search and innovation, recently received the two high- est awards in the “Magazines” category of a competition that was organized by the Society for Technical Communi- cation (STC). The STC is a professional organization for technical writers, editors, illustrators, managers and educa- tors. With approximately 18,000 members in 2008, the STC is the world’s largest professional organization in its field. The awards were presented at a ceremony in Washington, D.C. Siemens’ flagship publication (circulation 100,000) not only won the top-rated “Distinguished” award, but was singled out for the “Best of Show” award, which means that the magazine was judged to be superior to all other compe- tition entries with regard to its quality, concept, execution and presentation. Commenting on the publication, one of the judges remarked: “I am impressed that a translation from German can look so great, considering all the con- straints. This is a huge effort, and was fantastically exe- cuted.” Added another, “This periodical successfully pres- ents highly technical material by balancing the details with a general perspective and a sense of the human element amidst all of the technology.” A testing system for drinking water detects chemical weapons agents. The Pictures of the Future team(standing, from left to right): Jürgen Winzeck (Picture Editor); Rolf Seufferle, Rigo Ratschke (Layout); Florian Martini (Managing Editor); Sebastian Webel (Editor). Seated: Irene Kern (Picture Editor); Natascha Römer (Illustrations); Arthur F. Pease (Publisher and Executive Editor English edition); Judith Egelhof (Picture Editor), Dr. Ulrich Eberl (Editor-in-Chief and Publisher). Light Wait I n Munich Airport’s Terminal 2, travelers can check into futuristic-looking “napcap” booths that make waiting a pleasurable experience. The booths are equipped with a couch, a desk, and Internet access. The right lighting for the booths is provided by a sophisticated concept from Osram that generates different colors and levels of brightness. Depending on the user’s preferences, this can either be a bright blue-tinged working light that pro- motes activity or a warm red light for relaxation. Airport “napcap” booths are outfitted with Osram LED lighting modules. Capturing Carbon S iemens and German energy producer E.ON are building a pilot facility for sequestering carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) at an ex- isting coal-fired power plant near Hanau, Germany. Starting this summer, the companies will test a so-called “post-combus- tion capture” procedure, which is designed to mix the flue gas from combustion with a solution that absorbs about 90 percent of the CO 2 contained in the gas. The purified exhaust gas will then be emitted into the atmosphere with a minimal amount of residual CO 2 . The technology has been tested in the lab and is especially suited for retrofitting in conventional power plants. Concept design of a coal-fired plant with a pilot CO 2 sequestration system. The Acuson SC2000 recognizes anatomical landmarks. T he latest high-speed train from the Velaro family has success- fully passed an endurance test in Russia. Before delivery to the customer, experts from Siemens tested the train in a climatic wind tunnel in Vienna. The train is slated to connect Moscow and St. Pe- tersburg from the end of 2009, and it has to withstand severe weather conditions at all times. To ensure that this will be the case, fierce snowstorms were simulated at the Rail Tec Arsenal (RTA) test- ing facility in Vienna. During these tests, storm conditions raged at wind speeds of up to 250 kilometers per hour and outside tempera- tures were as low as –40 degrees Celsius. Siemens engineers had prepared Russia’s first high-speed train to withstand such condi- tions by incorporating special-grade materials such as steel and plastic that retain their properties even at low temperatures. In ad- dition, special lubricants, a refined design, and auxiliary safety func- tions for the drive and switching systems were needed to ensure the smooth operation of the train under the most adverse tempera- ture conditions. Besides demonstrating the train’s functionality in snow and ice, the test showed that passengers are in for a comfort- able ride. Thanks to the use of enhanced thermal insulation, pas- sengers can count on remaining warm despite the icy cold.na/sw Siemens Velaro trains for Russia stay cosy even under extreme test conditions . Unique Scanner Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 7 Paths to a Better Planet Cities are responsible for four fifths of all greenhouse emissions. That means that effective steps to cut emissions in urban areas can have profound effects on the envi- ronment. A new study based on the city of Munich shows how a major metropolitan area could make itself virtually carbon-free within a few decades. Most of the technol- ogy that’s needed is already available — and putting it to work would save money. biggest impact here. The major metropolitan areas of the world are thus in a unique position to lead the way to more environmentally- friendly modes of living and doing business. How can a modern city, despite population growth, reduce carbon emissions without hav- ing to compromise on living standards or risk- ing a slowdown in economic growth? This is the question that has occupied researchers from Germany’s Wuppertal Institute for Cli- mate, Environment and Energy with the sup- port of Siemens. Their study “Munich — Paths toward a Carbon-free Future” presents a de- tailed look at what the city can do to minimize its environmental footprint between now and 2058. The study concludes that it is possible to transform a city like Munich into a practically carbon-free area. This, it says, will require close cooperation between municipal authorities, energy companies, and the population, along with a clear commitment to efficient technolo- gies, ranging from energy-saving refrigerators to power plants, as well as a general willing- ness to invest in greater use of renewable en- ergy sources such as wind, solar power, bio- mass, and geothermal energy. Cutting CO 2 by 80 to 90 Percent. The study sketches two alternative scenarios for Munich. The so-called “target scenario” adopts the very optimistic view that the vision of a carbon-free future can be more or less achieved over the 50-year span under consideration in the study. Another scenario — the so-called bridge scenario — is somewhat more conservative and assumes, for example, that increased effi- ciency in power generation will be offset by rises in demand and that individual transporta- tion will remain similar to its present-day form. Nevertheless, the results are impressive in both cases. The optimistic target scenario predicts that through the implementation of compre- hensive efficiency measures the average CO 2 emissions per inhabitant can be curbed by around 90 percent to 750 kilograms per an- num by the middle of the century. The more conservative bridge scenario, on the other hand, results in a average CO 2 reduc- tion of almost 80 percent to approximately 1.3 metric tons. In comparison, on the basis of the IPCC World Climate Report of 2007, the Euro- pean Union’s environmental ministers came up with a target of reducing greenhouse gas emis- sions worldwide by over 50 percent and thereby to an average figure of less than two metric tons per capita. Both of the Munich sce- narios undercut this target substantially. The Munich study analyzes in detail which measures will achieve the greatest reduction in CO 2 emissions and whether they are economi- cal. Almost half of Munich’s CO 2 emissions are the result of energy used to heat the city’s homes and buildings. Improving the insulation of roofs, facades, and basements would thus yield significant savings. It is therefore crucial not to scrimp in this area. In fact, the study as- sumes that the refurbishment of existing hous- ing in Munich will conform to the Passive House standard and that all future housing will also conform to this standard. This includes the use of not only the best insulation and vac- uum-insulated windows but also ventilation systems that recover residual heat from the houses’ exhaust air before it is blown outside. Source: City of Munich, 2008; Stadtwerke München; estimates by Wuppertal Institute, 2008 Munich’s Energy Requirements in 2008 CO 2 emissions from energy sector 8.2m t CO 2 per annum Losses resulting from power generation and transmission as well as energy consumption in the energy sector: 11.4 TWh = 30% Total energy requirements: 29.0 TWh per annum From coal 2.4m t From natural gas 3.2m t From crude oil 2.6m t Primary energy 40.4 TWh per annum Coal 7.4 TWh Space heating and process heat 7.5 TWh Electricity 4.3 TWh Space heating 9.5 TWh Electricity 2.5 TWh Electricity 0.3 TWh Natural gas 15.8 TWh Crude oil 9.7 TWh Renewables 1.0 TWh Trade + Industry 11.8 TWh Households 12.0 TWh Transportation 5.3 TWh Fuel 5.0 TWh Figures rounded, 1 TWh = 3.6 PJ = 122,700 t hard coal equivalent Nuclear power 6.5 TWh | Study of a Carbon-Free Munich C ities are attractive places to live. They promise work, a vibrant cultural life, and a host of leisure activities. All of which is very true of Munich, Bavaria’s capital. From here, it’s only a short hop to go climbing or skiing in the Alps, to reach crystal-clear lakes, or to drive to Italy and the Mediterranean. Little wonder then that Munich is one of the few cities in Ger- many that is set to grow in the coming decades. Although an exception in Germany, the city is, however, very much in line with the trend toward ever-larger metropolitan areas. In the world’s newly industrializing and de- veloping countries people flock to cities in search of work and education and in hope of a better life. And last year a watershed was reached. In 2008, for the first time ever, half of the world’s population lived in cities. By 2050 this figure is forecast to grow to 70 percent. This will result in huge urban sprawls that con- sume resources and pollute environments. Although metropolitan areas cover only one percent of the earth’s surface, they are respon- sible for 75 percent of the world’s energy con- sumption and 80 percent of greenhouse gases, not least carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). As such, they are storing up trouble for themselves, since ex- perts expect cities to be seriously affected by climate change. Shanghai, for example, is likely to suffer from storms and heavy rains, and Ger- many’s Federal Environment Agency predicts that by the end of the century Munich will see a significant increase in the number of hot days and “tropical” nights each year. Is there any good news about cities? Well, yes. The very fact that they are not only the biggest culprits in climate change, but that they are so concentrated offers a good oppor- tunity to tackle the problems they cause, since the key levers for climate protection have their 6 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Pictures of the Future | Short Takes Inventions in the Wind H enrik Stiesdal certainly has what it takes to be a top inventor. The oil crisis in the 1970s and the debate about fu- ture supplies of energy prompted Stiesdal, at that time a recent high school graduate, to build one of the first wind turbines ever on his parents’ farm in Denmark. He got the materials mainly from scrap yards. Today, at 51, Stiesdal is one of the most successful pio- neers in the field of wind en- ergy, having made 74 inven- tions and filed 85 patents worldwide, some of them before he joined Siemens. “Wind parks have great prospects, especially if they’re on the open sea,” he says. However, several challenges still need to be overcome, such as the fact that wind turbines use a gearbox that converts the rotor’s low rotational speed into the high speed used to generate electricity. “But gear boxes are very complex machines that are liable to break down and expensive to repair,” explains Stiesdal. To overcome this problem, he is currently working on developing a turbine without a gearbox. In- stead of a gearbox, the system uses a synchronous generator that is excited by per- manent magnets so that it can directly convert the rotor movements into electrical energy. “If the concept works, wind park operators will be thrilled,” says Stiesdal. Henrik Stiesdal wants to make wind power more robust. Facelift Fit for a Queen A ccording to researchers working in Berlin, Germany, the famous bust of Queen Nefertiti originally had a completely different face. Under the outer layer of plaster is a second face, which at first glance looks much older than the outer one. For example, there are visible wrinkles around the mouth, and the nose fits in less harmoniously with the other features. The researchers uncovered this secret us- ing a Somatom Sensation 64 computer tomograph from Siemens, whose image resolution is 0.3 millimeters. The scanner provided the team with a detailed image of the limestone core of the bust. Experts believe that more than 3,000 years ago the Pharaoh Akhenaten was dissatisfied with his spouse’s image and ordered the sculptors to remodel the bust of this queen of ancient Egypt. In line with his wishes, the sculptors emphasized Nefertiti’s cheek bones and straightened her nose. fm CT scanning reveals that a concealed face is hidden under Queen Nefertiti’s visible face. be largely satisfied by renewable sources. The study assumes that the city will continue to ob- tain electricity from larger power plants in the region as well as further afield in Germany and abroad. Such power could be generated essen- tially by large offshore and onshore wind farms in northern Europe or by solar-thermal power plants in southern Europe or northern Africa and then transported to the cities of central Eu- rope via low-loss HVDC transmission lines. Some of this power could also be generated in low-carbon power plants equipped with tech- nology for carbon capture and storage. Plugging Cars into the Picture. One of the most striking changes investigated by the study is the massive shift to electric cars. It is likely that by the middle of the century most car trips in the Munich area will be made in electric vehicles. For longer trips, people will probably still use hybrid or highly efficient diesel or gasoline cars that consume on aver- age less than five liters of fuel per 100 kilome- ters. The large number of electric vehicles in Munich will also become an important link within the power supply chain (p. 96), helping to buffer fluctuating loads from photovoltaic and wind sources, whose output of electricity differs according to the weather and the time of day. When power is plentiful (and therefore cheap), electric car batteries will serve as an in- termediate storage system. At times of high de- mand (and peak rates), they will feed some of their power back into the grid. At the same time, better town planning can help reduce the amount of traffic in Munich Source: Estimate by Wuppertal Institute, 2008 CO 2 Emissions Per Capita Annual CO 2 per capita (in kg) 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Reference (2008) Target (2058) Bridge (2058) 6,549 -89% -80% 750 1,300 CO 2 Emissions by Sector Source: Estimate by Wuppertal Institute, 2008 Thousands of metric tons CO 2 p.a. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Target (2058) Bridge (2058) Reference (2008) -87% -79% Passenger transport Commercial transport Power and heat from CHP (coal) Power and heat from CHP (natural gas) Heat from CHP (natural gas) Power from CHP (natural gas) Power generation (coal with CCS) Direct heat generation (heating oil) Direct heat generation (natural gas) Percentage of CO 2 emissions in Munich (2008) resulting from heating of buildings: 46.5% 46.5% 20% 20% 60% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 22% Total: 17.0 Source: Wuppertal Institute, 2008 Building Heating by Source TWh per annum Reference (2008) Target/Bridge (2058) 1% 77% District heating Decentralized CHP Direct supply of heat -79% Total: 3.5 and therefore reduce its CO 2 emissions. Both scenarios are based on reduced travel require- ments. Instead of building shopping malls on green field sites that can only be reached by car, the study favors the creation of urban neighborhoods in which homes, workplaces, and stores are close to one another. That way, many more trips can be completed on foot or by bicycle. The authors likewise advocate mak- ing public transit more comfortable in order to encourage its increased use. This includes the provision of individual services to inform pas- sengers about fares and connections via mo- bile terminals. Why Savings Offset Expenses. In addition to analyzing Munich as a whole, the study pre- sents a detailed plan of how to improve energy efficiency in an actual district on the periphery that contains both old and new housing. Here a 30-year period is considered. The authors conclude that it would be possible to create a low-carbon neighborhood within this relatively short period of time. Moreover, they say that the cost of refurbishing existing structures and building new ones in line with the Passive House standard would be offset by savings in energy that would have been consumed for heating within a 30-year timeframe. The sav- ings would be sufficient to fund the creation of a carbon-free district heating distribution sys- tem powered by geothermal energy. In other words, investment in a carbon-free supply of heating would not only reduce emissions sub- stantially but would also save the district an av- erage of €4 to €6.5 million per annum over the lifetime of the systems. It must be remembered that private individ- uals and the business sector also have a role to play in boosting energy efficiency, since in many cases it is they who must choose be- tween traditional technology and a more effi- cient but often, at the outset, more expensive alternative. This applies equally to the con- struction of housing, electric appliances, and industrial motors. Yet the study emphasizes that this often involves merely a change in be- havior, not a compromise in the quality of life. Frequently it is high costs that prevent a whole- sale shift in attitudes and the widespread use of low-energy technology. And frequently this is because consumers fail to appreciate the po- tential savings in energy costs over a full prod- uct lifetime. However, experience clearly shows that people’s behavior can be nudged in the right direction by the use of appropriate finan- cial assistance and incentives combined with targeted information campaigns. The study therefore concludes that greater energy effi- ciency is chiefly interesting when it makes sound financial sense. And that is almost al- ways the case. Tim Schröder CHP:Combined heat and power 8 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 9 Pictures of the Future | Study of a Carbon-Free Munich Based on the above steps, the study finds that it should be possible to reduce heating re- quirements for existing buildings from the cur- rent figure of around 200 kilowatt-hours per square meter per annum (kWh/m 2 a) to be- tween 25 and 35 kWh/m 2 , while new housing will require only between 10 to 20 kWh/m 2 a. At the same time, new buildings are to be fitted with solar power systems, so that most of them will be able to cover their remaining en- ergy requirements autonomously and even feed excess energy into the grid. In order to en- sure that the energy efficiency of most build- ings is raised to the requisite level over the next 50 years, the rate at which such refurbishment is being carried out must increase from the cur- rent figure of 0.5 percent to 2.0 percent per an- num. This means that four times as many homeowners must implement such energy im- provements than is currently the case. The idea of improving the energy efficiency of a city like Munich on a more or less whole- sale basis over 50 years sounds like a major challenge. Yet such efforts are worthwhile. Al- though it is more expensive to build according to the Passive House standard than to imple- ment the Energy Conservation Act of 2007, the additional costs involved in such refurbishment and the construction of new housing would amount to around €13 billion for the entire city Home Power. Of course, insulation is by no means the end of the story. More has to be done if CO 2 emissions are to be cut to almost zero. Greenhouse gas emissions can also be re- duced by the use of combined heat and power (CHP) systems. Such heating systems are par- ticularly efficient, since they utilize around nine tenths of the energy contained in their primary fuel. Both Munich scenarios also assume that the use of district heating will rise from the cur- rent figure of 20 percent to 60 percent. This is not an unrealistic proposition. In Copenhagen, for example, around 70 percent of all house- holds are heated this way. Improving the energy efficiency of buildings will cost €13 billion but result in energy savings of €30 billion. Other measures designed to reduce CO 2 emissions include the use of economical elec- tric appliances and lighting as well as renew- able and low-carbon energy sources such as photovoltaic systems, solar collectors, and ge- othermal systems. The study assumes that electricity will be increasingly generated on a decentralized basis — for example, by CHP plants for individual areas of the city or even micro CHP units for individual buildings, which supply not only heat but also electricity for resi- dents (Pictures of the Future, Fall 2008, p. 78). According to the study, if all the opportuni- ties to save electricity were rigorously exploited — from stoplights to tumble driers — the power consumption of a city like Munich could of Munich. That would mean extra costs of ap- proximately €200 a year per inhabitant — around one third of an average annual gas bill. By 2058, however, this additional investment would be offset by energy savings of between €1.6 and €2.6 billion per year, which translates into an annual sum of between €1,200 to €2,000 per inhabitant. The refurbishment of existing and construction of new housing in line with the Passive House standard would — according to the study — result in energy sav- ings of more than €30 billion by 2058. More- over, this scenario also applies to other areas, since the study comes to the conclusion that measures designed to enhance efficiency gen- erally pay for themselves over their lifetime. Sources of Munich’s Energy Mix 0 Reference (2008) Target (2058) Bridge (2058) TWh per annum 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Total: 8.03 Total: 5.28 Total: 7.44 Coal-fired power plant with CCS Solar-thermal electricity generation Wind power on-/offshore Biomass Geothermal Hydroelectric Photovoltaic Decentralized CHP Centralized CHP 0.16 0.79 1.18 0.37 0.68 0.38 0.28 1.44 2.75 LPT electricity LPT biofuel LPT fuel (fossil) MIT electricity MIT biofuel MIT fuel (fossil) TWh per annum 0 Reference (2008) Target (2058) Bridge (2058) 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 Total: 4.32 Source: Wuppertal Institute, 2008 Power generation: Accounts for 40.3% of CO 2 emissions in Munich (2008) 40.3% Public transport: Accounts for 12.6% of CO 2 emissions in Munich (2008) 12.6% Munich’s Transport Energy Mix MIT:Motorized Individual Transport LPT:Local Public Transport CCS:Carbon Capture & Storage -54% -32% Total: 1.99 Total: 2.92 16 Let there be Savings! Researchers have studied the life cycles of lamps from production to disposal. Result: Efficiency and life span are the keys to a healthy environmental balance sheet. 18 Making Things for Tomorrow An interview with chemist Michael Braungart, developer of the “cradle to cradle” concept, concerning the never-ending materials cycle. 20 Products from Dust to Dust The first environmental impact assessment conducted by Siemens for its Corex/Finex technologies showed that even pig iron can be produced in ways that are rela- tively environmentally friendly. 24 Timely Trains Detailed life cycle analyses help engineers design trains that are environmentally friendly in their operation, production, and recycling. 27 Oh What a Tune-Up! Modernizing old power plants can result in huge savings for opera- tors while sharply reducing CO 2 emissions. Siemens is a leader in overhauling plant control systems and replacing turbines. 32 Miracle in the Laundry Room Bosch Siemens Hausgeräte has developed a dryer that uses only half the power of conventional products — an energy-efficiency world champion. Highlights 2025 In his special lab, energy-efficiency sleuth Henry Poiret fine tunes the environmental balance sheets of new locomotives for a rail- way company. The trains and the entire pro- duction hall are represented as holograms. Poiret is assisted in his work by his avatar “Virtual Watson.” Here, he presents a new drive system that produces electricity as soon as the train brakes, and feeds it back into the power grid. 10 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 11 The scene is New York City in 2025. Henry Poiret, a former FBI scientist, is a specialist in environmental balance sheets who tracks down energy wasters of all kinds for his clients. For the very first time, he allows a journalist to watch him at work — and to get an inside glimpse of his new lab. Energy- Saving Sleuth T urn the light off for heaven’s sake!” The elderly man hurries across the room, past his secretary, and claps his hands quickly three times. The bright ceiling lights go out, and at the same time the dark-tinted panorama win- dows become transparent, revealing a view of Manhattan. “A few more kilowatt-hours saved,” he says with evident satisfaction. “Welcome to my office.” It wasn’t easy getting an appointment with Henry “the Sniffer” Poiret — least of all as a journalist, because if there’s one thing the 70- year-old former FBI scientist can’t stand, it’s publicity. Poiret prefers to work out of sight, and the prodigious wrongdoers he strives to hunt down — power hogs and energy wasters, gas guzzlers, and climate killers — often re- main elusive as well. In short, anything that consumes too much electricity, raw materials, or other resources must go. Poiret is an energy- L i f e C y c l e P l a n n i n g | Scenario 2025 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 13 Production, use and disposal. Companies are looking ever more closely at the life cycles of their products — from development and production to operation and recycling. Assessing Product Impact Anyone who wants to protect the environment while cutting costs needs to look at the entire product life cycle. With the help of environmental life cycle assessments, Siemens investigates how much in the way of energy and raw materi- als products use during their life times and what volume of harmful substances is produced as a result. These analyses are translated into efficient new technologies. of the environmental benefits, however, was unclear until recently. The scientists therefore compared Corex/ Finex with conventional blast furnaces and documented the impact on air, water, and soil (p. 20). In this analysis, each step was carefully in- vestigated and evaluated — from extraction and preparation of raw materials to processes such as dedusting, gas cleaning, and desul- phurization. “We discovered that the environ- mental life cycle assessment of Corex/Finex is significantly better than the blast furnace route,” says CT materials expert Frank Wala- chowicz. This was especially true of emissions. The amount of sulfur dioxide, nitrous oxides, and dust produced is considerably lower with Corex/Finex. Waste water is also significantly less contaminated. “With environmental life cy- cle assessment, we’ve been able to demon- strate for the first time just how environmen- tally compatible the process is compared to conventional methods,” says Walachowicz. Saving Energy. Environmental compatibility is also the credo of Bosch und Siemens Haus- geräte GmbH (BSH), Europe’s biggest white goods manufacturer. For instance, a strict in- ternal guideline at BSH stipulates that every ef- fort must be made to minimize the impact on the environment of the company’s washing machines in all phases of their life cycles. This approach is well-grounded in economics since customers want white goods that consume as little water and power as possible. By 2030, for instance, the market volume for energy-effi- cient products such as home appliances is set to almost double in the U.S., according to the American Solar Energy Society (p. 35). BSH’s environmental experts have conducted studies of their home appliances to find out how devel- mental life cycle assessment. These balance sheets summarize all the environmental im- pacts that are associated with the creation of a product or service. “This is a holistic approach in which the environmental compatibility of every step of production — from the extraction and processing of raw materials to the disposal of a product — is evaluated,” explains Professor Stig Irving Olsen, a sustainability specialist at the Technical University of Denmark (p. 22). At Siemens Corporate Technology (CT), spe- cialists involved in the detection of environ- mental changes teamed up with Professor Olsen and other partners in 2008 to examine two complex technologies. In the Corex/Finex process for steel manufacturing, pig iron is generated in a single process step from ore fines. As coking and sintering are no longer needed, resource consumption and investment fall — as do production costs. The exact scale | Trends I f goods were alive, they would lead a desper- ate existence. Monitored constantly from the moment of birth, they have to perform per- fectly throughout their entire lives. And when they grow old, they are carted away to be can- nibalized. But something that sounds like a horror story for humans is actually a desirable goal for products, since only thorough analyses can determine which products need as little en- ergy as possible while resulting in as few harm- ful by-products as possible. And in the light of climate change, growing environmental aware- ness, and the focus on energy efficiency, this has now become an important requirement in order to succeed with customers. Companies are therefore examining the journey their products take from the drawing board to the recycling yard more and more closely. A product’s environmental footprint can be determined using a so-called environ- 12 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 efficiency sleuth. In recent years, he has made a name for himself by cracking a number of spectacular cases. In 2020, for example. With- out him, the city council would surely not have succeeded in setting up an almost completely CO 2 -neutral district. And many of us remember what happened last summer, when the yellow cabs in Manhat- tan finally went green thanks to electric drive technology. The old fox had a hand in that too. At the moment, Poiret is ready to help a Eu- ropean manufacturer of railway systems. U.S. Track, the local New York transit operator, wants to use a new generation of environmen- tally-friendly high-speed trains. So it an- nounced a competition — with the contract to be awarded to the company whose locomotive can demonstrate the best energy-efficiency and most favorable environmental balance sheet throughout its service life. Naturally, the Europeans don’t want to miss the opportunity to submit a concept, and they believe they can maximize their chances with Poiret’s assis- tance. The master sleuth has taken time out for our magazine and has even agreed to give us an exclusive look at his new laboratory. “Bobby, give the lad something to drink and start up the lab, we’re going down,” the master says. His secretary hands me a cup of coffee and urges me into an elevator at the end of the room. “I’ve set up a small workroom in the basement,” says Poiret. “That’s where I also show customers my results from time to time. Mr. Watson is expecting us.” When the elevator doors open, I am met by a wave of loud factory noise. We are in the middle of a cavernous as- sembly hall; welding robots are everywhere, working on half-finished trains, and the air has a metallic taste. “Watson,” calls Poiret, “turn off that soundtrack immediately, it’s unbearable.” The din subsides in seconds. A figure that seems strangely transparent glides forward from behind a locomotive. “Allow me to intro- duce Virtual Watson,” says Poiret. “You don’t have to extend your hand, he couldn’t shake it anyway. Mr. Watson is an avatar, a hologram, just like the entire hall. An entirely new tech- nology, and not exactly inexpensive.” Poiret takes a sip of coffee. “The entire locomotive production process can be simulated down here,” he explains. “The manufacturer has already transferred the data to me, so I can find out where energy and raw materials are wasted, for example, and deter- mine the best ways to save even more.” Poiret pulls an ultra-thin folding OLED dis- play from his pocket. “But now let’s get to work. We’re not playing a computer game here. Wat- son, explain to our young friend what we’ve learned.” “Very well, sir. We invited the Europeans to our lab, and together we took the simulated trains apart literally down to the last screw, while the design stage was still under way. In the process we noticed that the designers wanted to use mainly aluminum panels from China — flawless in quality, but rather inappro- priate with regard to the train’s environmental balance sheet.” Virtual Watson straightens his perfectly sim- ulated bow tie. “Production of these panels is very energy-intensive. And in China electricity still comes to a large extent from coal-fired power plants — they have become more effi- cient in recent years, but they still haven’t inte- grated a system of CO 2 storage. So they emit a relatively large amount of CO 2 . This is why we have recommended using aluminum panels from Iceland and Norway. In those countries, the electricity comes entirely from renewable sources such as geothermal energy and hy- dropower. That would considerably improve the train’s environmental balance sheet.” Poiret nods in approval and browses through pages on his OLED display. “Of course, we had other suggestions,” reveals the energy- efficiency detective. “Watson, show us the front drive section.” The avatar strolls over to one of the locomotives and touches the under- body. As if by a magical force, the entire train becomes transparent. “The drive system is not only gearless and ultra-efficient; it also serves as a generator. Whenever the locomotive is moving downhill or its brakes are applied, it ac- cumulates braking energy. It feeds the power back into the electrical grid or uses it for its on- board systems — so the train not only con- sumes electrical energy, but also produces it.” Poiret gestures to Watson to climb aboard one of the trains. The assistant takes a seat in one of the compartments and lights up a vir- tual pipe. “Mr. Watson has just made himself nice and comfortable atop what is essentially a compost heap: All the seat covers are com- pletely environmentally compatible, and what’s more, they will even become valuable fertilizer after they have been used,” explains Poiret. “In theory, you could even eat them. In- cidentally, the whole train is completely recy- clable and contains no toxic substances what- soever. We succeeded in hunting down all the environmental polluters before it was too late.” Poiret types a combination of keys into his PDA. Slowly, the production hall disappears, and all that remains is a small white room — and Virtual Watson. “I still have a thing or two to do here. Unfortunately, my holographic room uses quite a bit of power,” he admits. “But I can hardly bear to turn off Mr. Watson.” Florian Martini Life Cycle Planning | Scenario 2025 Holistic Approach Solves Problems Companies that are planning to launch products as quickly and flexibly as possible, while maximizing quality and minimizing costs, would do well to comprehensively review the life cycles of these prod- ucts. In Product Life cycle Management (PLM), the entire chain — from idea to recycling — is minutely analyzed. “We have to make this chain more efficient by injecting technical expertise into the process and integrating it in a practical way,” explains Steffen Grünwaldt, who is a Project Manager for the PLM Technology Center at Siemens Corporate Technology (CT) in Munich, Germany. The PLM Center, which was founded in October 2008, strives to achieve this objective by bringing to- gether expertise from various CT departments — including process and production optimization, de- sign, materials management, software and factory design, as well as supplier integration and service. “The fundamental goal of our Technology Center is to support the Siemens Sectors so that they can manufacture products that satisfy market demands as quickly as possible,” says Grünwaldt. “We also provide experts from various disciplines throughout Siemens with an ideal development environment for the mechatronic integration of their planned products.” Networked workstations help achieve this, as do modern meeting rooms, databases, and 3D simulations of entire production lines. For Grünwaldt and his team, the holistic utilization of the pool of experts is paramount. “With our PLM Technology Center, we can avoid tunnel vision, since the purpose of the Center is to ensure that prod- ucts are no longer regarded from the perspective of one individual department, but rather that the en- tire added value chain can be examined for its optimization potential,” explains Grünwaldt “Very simply, the PLM Technology Center works as follows,” says Grünwaldt. “Let’s assume that the Siemens Energy Sector receives a maintenance inquiry concerning a turbine in a remote region and that the Sector’s specialists know they will have difficulty meeting this request, since it would be too difficult and cost-intensive to send an engineer there or train personnel locally. This is the kind of sce- nario in which the holistic approach of process consulting could come into play,” he says. On the one hand, CT experts would draw up a sophisticated version of remote maintenance with the Siemens Sec- tor. On the other, the project team would analyze issues that were not addressed in the original de- scription of the problem, but that could contribute effectively to a solution. In the case of turbines, this could be a recommendation to optimize the design and materials in terms of robustness, so that the turbine would be less likely to require repairs and maintenance. “Remote maintenance can therefore be the original question, but completely different factors can contribute to an economically sustain- able solution,” says Grünwaldt. As well as providing a solution- and application-oriented process consulting services, the PLM Technol- ogy Center can also help with the implementation and market launch of innovative ideas. For in- stance, the Center supports research into electro-mobility — in other words, the development of elec- tric-powered vehicles and their integration into a corresponding infrastructure (p. 96). At the moment, the Center is still in its infancy. The first pilot projects have begun, and the Center is set to officially go into operation in the second half of 2009. Additional PLM Technology Centers are already in the pipeline for Siemens locations in Princeton, New Jersey and Beijing, China. Kirstin Schliekau Saving Money. Ralf Pfitzner, Head of Product- Related Environmental Protection at Siemens, is convinced that calculating product life time energy demand will become an essential part of how amortization value is derived. “In the medium term, energy costs will continue to rise. For customers, the consideration of the entire life cycle is therefore going to play an ever greater role,” says Pfitzner. “There’s a mas- sive market for this that has yet to be tapped.” The point at which investments in environmen- tal technology innovations are balanced out by the energy costs saved varies significantly from product to product, however, and also depends on electricity prices. For instance, for an en- ergy-efficient motor that’s used 2,000 hours a year for ten years, the purchase price accounts for less than three percent of total costs. En- ergy costs, by contrast, account for more than 95 percent. “Here, higher procurement costs are amortized in less than two years,” explains Pfitzner. “Energy-efficient products don’t just spare the environment, they also save money.” In addition to demanding energy-efficient products, customers are also looking to mod- ernization of existing facilities as a way of re- ducing long-term operational costs. Many power plants, for instance, are over 30 years old and are no longer at the cutting edge of technology. In order to cut costs and emissions, however, such plants need to be operated as efficiently as possible. Siemens Energy therefore offers a kind of tune-up for power plants (p. 27). In order to turn such “dinosaurs” into racehorses, engi- neers examine all of a plant’s parameters. Of- ten, simply giving control systems new elec- tronics generates significant improvements. For instance, the time it takes to bring a plant up to full power can be shortened, saving money and avoiding the production of tons of CO 2 . Power plants can also be made more effi- cient by optimizing individual components. Consequently, Siemens fits modernized tur- bines to around 20 to 25 power plants a year — an improvement that markedly increases ef- ficiency and reduces emissions. Prof. Olsen regards life cycle assessment as one of the most powerful weapons companies can use in the battle against environmental damage. “Such assessments not only improve the environmental compatibility of products and their production processes, they also sharpen consumers’ awareness of environmen- tal issues,” he explains. Companies themselves also benefit from this process, says Olsen. “With the aid of an environmental life cycle as- sessment, they can increase their attractive- ness — both to customers and to clients from the public sector,” he says.Florian Martini 14 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 15 Life Cycle Planning | Trends opers can improve their products’ life cycle as- sessments. These studies show that product use accounts for more than 90 percent of envi- ronmental impact, while transport and recy- cling barely register. In the case of dryers, this figure is 97 per- cent, with water vaporization being especially prove their energy efficiency (p. 16). “If we can increase our light bulbs’ luminous efficiency by just one to two percent, we can achieve more than if Osram were to completely cease emit- ting carbon dioxide generated as a result of the production process,” says Christian Merz, a sus- tainability expert at Osram. “Customers want a good locomotive that also meets the highest environmental standards,” says Martin Leitel, an expert in sustainable ap- proaches at Mobility. “Life cycle analyses are frequently a precondition for participation in tendering processes.” For his analysis, Leitel uses a database con- taining many thousands of part numbers and detailed information about the materials from which each component is made. Another data- base lists the primary energy consumption and CO 2 emissions associated with each material, differentiated by region. For instance, an alu- minum sheet from Iceland, a country rich in re- generative energy sources, is rated as having a much lower CO 2 footprint than one from China, where electricity is largely obtained from coal-fired power stations. Graphics ulti- mately show where energy is consumed. Siemens launched its blueTherm dryer — the result of two years of development and testing. The dryer uses a new type of heat pump and consumes only half as much electricity as an average condenser dryer of efficiency class B. The blueTherm even undercuts the threshold of class A by 40 percent. “That makes us the en- ergy-saving world champion,” says BSH project manager Kai Nitschmann. Although the dryer is more expensive than its conventional coun- terparts, it ultimately saves money — given av- erage use and German electricity prices, it con- sumes just €18 of electricity a year, while the operation of a vented dryer costs around €50. Cutting Emissions.Siemens subsidiary Osram is also taking a closer look at the life cycle of its products, in this case light bulbs. The company wants to market only bulbs that are more envi- ronmentally compatible than their predeces- sors. The best way of achieving that is to im- up to a reduction of 450 million tons per year in CO 2 emissions — almost half of Germany’s total emissions. “You’d have to plant a forest about the size of Sweden to achieve the same effect,” says Merz. Osram’s scientists are work- ing on an environmental life cycle assessment for LEDs, which have major green potential. In terms of efficiency, the pinhead-sized lights can already compete with economical fluores- cent bulbs— and new materials are set to sig- nificantly increase their luminous efficiency. Energy dieting is also becoming popular among the products from Siemens’ Mobility di- vision, as railways leave behind a sizeable envi- ronmental footprint. Trains, streetcars, and subway vehicles therefore need to be as eco- nomical as possible and emit as few harmful emissions as possible during use, manufacture, and recycling. The Mobility division is also us- ing life cycle assessments to determine the most environmentally-friendly designs (p. 24). Freight locomotives are particularly energy-in- tensive during operation. For example, in Eu- rope, between 200,000 and 400,000 tons of CO 2 can be generated over a locomotive’s 30- years lifetime, depending on how it is utilized. Locomotive production, on the other hand, generates only around 250 tons of CO 2 . On the other hand, the recycling phase generates sav- ings of 100 tons of CO 2 because a large propor- tion of a locomotive consists of recyclable ma- terials. For engineers, Leitel’s data trove is an important tool, because life cycle assessments can be used to develop the most environmen- tally friendly railways possible. Experts at Siemens, however, don’t regard the fact that sustainable locomotives can be more expen- sive than their conventional equivalents as an obstacle to progress. “A ten percent higher pur- chase price for a locomotive still pays off for the customer if the energy efficiency is two percentage points higher,” Leitel explains. As part of a life cycle assessment of trains, Siemens mobility engineers use a database that details each component’s primary energy consumption and CO 2 footprint. Life cycle studies show that an aluminum sheet from Iceland has a lower CO 2 footprint than one from China. energy-intensive. This was reason enough for BSH to develop a dryer that puts all other appli- ances in the shade (p. 32). Developers ana- lyzed dryers of all types, counted screws, weighed components, and tested current con- sumption and noise. In September 2008 The European Union’s ban on conventional light bulbs is therefore logical. The switch to ef- ficient lighting can help save 900 billion kilo- watt-hours a year worldwide — or about one third of all the electricity used for lighting, ex- plains Merz. With today’s energy mix, this adds Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 1716 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Life Cycle Planning | Lamps M algorzata Kroban spent months traveling to manufacturing workshops and pro- duction halls every day. The young engineer visited Osram glass manufacturing centers, where glass cylinders and tubes are made from a large number of materials melted together in giant hot furnaces. Kroban witnessed lamp bodies being coated with phosphor, filled with gases, fitted with electronic circuits and stuck to plastic parts. She spoke with factory managers, researchers, and developers, and sifted through numerous databases. Her objective — which was also the Fluorescent lamp manufacturing. Most of the energy consumed during a lamp’s life cycle results from operation, while production (small images) requires a relatively small proportion of energy. Let there be Savings! Researchers who have studied the life cycles of various lamps from Osram, a Siemens subsidiary, have found that their environmental balance sheet from production to disposal is almost exclusively determined by their efficiency and life span. An energy-saving lamp lasts 15 times longer than a light bulb — and saves one megawatt-hour of electricity. topic of her doctoral dissertation at the Bran- denburg University of Technology in Cottbus, Germany — was to put together a comprehen- sive environmental balance sheet for fluores- cent lamps and various other Osram lighting systems. “This dissertation marked the first time that the entire lamp life cycle had been closely ex- amined — everything from quarry operations and extraction of the materials for the glass to recycling and disposal facilities,” says Christian Merz, a sustainability expert at Osram. It was thus at once a premiere and a complex detec- tive assignment. Every detail had to be identi- fied and recorded. Where do raw materials come from, and how are they extracted, trans- ported, prepared, and processed? What exactly occurs during the manufacturing process, and which machines and tools are needed? How much material and energy is used, and which energy sources are involved? How much elec- tricity do the lamps consume when operating; how long do they last? And finally, which sub- stances are recyclable, and can therefore be re- used when the lamp reaches the end of its service life? The results of Kroban’s extensive investiga- tion made one thing very clear: “The environ- mental balance sheet for lamps is largely deter- mined by their energy consumption during operation,” she says. As Kroban discovered, only one to two percent of total lamp energy consumption is attributable to lamp produc- tion. “That’s why efficiency during operation is the most effective lever for making lamps more environmentally friendly,” says Merz. “So, if we can raise lamp luminous efficiency even just one or two percent, we’ll achieve more than if we covered up all our smokestacks and no longer released production-related carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.” The desired efficiency increases can be at- tained through extensive refinements, such as limiting tolerances during production in order to minimize a lamp’s environmental impact. Soon, for example, it should be possible to fill lamps with precisely the amount of gas needed to make them light up most efficiently. Imple- mentation of many such measures can raise the luminous efficiency of today’s common lighting systems by around 20 percent. When Less is More. Osram’s developers can also use such life cycle analyses to identify those parts of the production process where re- sources can be conserved, and future waste then, Osram has continually updated its fig- ures. According to this data, by simply switch- ing to modern lighting solutions, around 900 billion kilowatt-hours would be saved, or one- third of the electricity currently being used for lighting. Given today’s energy mix for electric- ity production, that would be equivalent to a 450-million-ton reduction in carbon dioxide emissions each year. “You’d have to plant 450,000 square kilometers of forest — an area about the size of Sweden — to achieve the ing the same operating life span, which corre- sponds to half-a-ton less in carbon dioxide emissions than a conventional bulb. “That’s more than a tree can absorb during the same period,” says Merz. The modest energy con- sumption of fluorescent lamps also saves money. Although they cost around €10 more than a conventional light bulb, fluorescent lamps pay for themselves after about 800 hours of operation — and save their owners €250 over their entire life span. toxic heavy metal. Still, the lamps hold only one tenth the mercury that fluorescent lights had around 30 years ago. “That’s less mercury than a coal-fired power plant releases when it produces the electricity used by a conventional light bulb during its lifetime,” Merz reports. Nevertheless, over the long term, mercury will have to be eliminated from the lamps. In fact, there is already a fluorescent car headlight on the market known as “Xenarc Hg free” that employs a potassium-iodine compound that produces sufficient lighting power without any mercury. same effect,” says Merz, who adds that it there- fore makes sense to ban incandescent light bulbs. “That’s a good idea — and we’ve already got the lamps in stock to replace them with,” he says. Comparing Life Spans. For the sake of com- parison, Osram scientists have examined the energy consumption and life spans of various types of lamps. Among the light sources com- pared were a 75-watt incandescent bulb and a 15-watt Osram Dulux EL Longlife energy-sav- ing lamp, both of which have practically the Moreover, because they are long lasting, en- ergy-saving lamps — seen in a life-cycle con- text — consume less energy during produc- tion. That’s because even though the production of one lamp requires five times the energy used for a conventional bulb, a total of 15 bulbs would have to be produced to achieve a similar total luminous output. Energy-saving lamps do pose one environ- mental problem, though: They contain mer- cury. “Without mercury, their luminous effi- ciency would be two-thirds lower,” says Merz, explaining why Osram still needs to use the thus prevented. For instance, Kroban’s studies show that in some cases, energy consumption can be reduced by using less material. The Os- ram T5 fluorescent tube, for example, which is about as thin as a finger, performed much bet- ter in terms of energy efficiency than the com- monly used T8 tube, which is as thick as a broomstick. The “leaner” model actually con- sumes around 40 percent less energy while de- livering the same level of brightness. Osram and the Energy Research Center in Munich began assembling data on the energy consumption of lamps 20 years ago. Since same brightness. What the researchers found was a huge difference in energy consumption. Not only is this due to the fact that the energy- saving lamp can convert more electricity into light than heat; it’s also because the energy- saving lamp can operate for 15,000 hours, or 15 times longer than the incandescent bulb. The collective energy consumption of 15 light bulbs is therefore five times higher than that of a single energy-saving lamp that burns for ex- actly the same amount of time. Conversely, an energy-saving lamp saves a total of one megawatt-hour of electricity dur- 18 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 19 Life Cycle Planning | Lamps Kroban’s dissertation serves as a valuable foundation for further environmental balance sheets being drawn up by Osram for new prod- ucts. “Our goal is to market only those products that are more environmentally friendly than their predecessors,” says Merz. With this in mind, the company is producing an environ- mental balance sheet for light-emitting diodes. These pinhead-sized lamps can already com- pete with fluorescent lamps in terms of effi- ciency, and use of new materials should signifi- cantly increase their luminous efficiency. At the same time, a lamp developed on the basis of environmental criteria is worthless if no one buys it. “That’s why we always have to | Interview Michael Braungart, 51, is a professor of Process Technology at the University of Lüneburg, Germany. He also serves as director of the Environ- mental Protection and Encouragement Agency (EPEA) in Hamburg, which he established. Braungart works with both small companies and global corporations on the development of products that contain no pollutants and can either be composted or used in some other way after they have served their purpose. In 2003, Braungart was presented with the Presidential Green Chemistry Award by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. His supporters include film director Steven Spielberg. A documentary film about Braungart’s work will soon appear in movie theaters. You develop environmentally friendly products, yet you don’t think much of the idea of sustainability. Why? Braungart:The conventional interpretation of sustainability is boring. It’s all about reducing, minimizing, and saving. In other words, do everything the same way as before, just not as badly. Not as badly is not the same as good, however. That’s why I prefer intelligent waste- fulness. Instead of developing less damaging things, we should be developing useful things. How would this work? Braungart:It’s really not that difficult once you start to redefine the concept of waste. Take nature as an example. The world’s ants consume as much energy as 30 billion people, but only produce biomass — there’s no waste. We could do this too if we created products de- signed for a never-ending cycle. This concept is known as “cradle-to-cradle,” and with it no valuable raw materials are ever lost. Instead, they are used over and over again. Experience shows that this works. EPEA, for example, is- sues cradle-to-cradle certificates to new prod- ucts every year. For example? Braungart:It’s already possible to buy cradle- to-cradle carpets that are not only free of con- taminants but can also remove fine dust from the air. We’re also working on a new type of concrete that can clean the surrounding air. In addition, there are cradle-to-cradle seat cover- ings in the Airbus 380 that contain absolutely no harmful substances — in fact, you could even eat them. After their useful life, they can be converted to valuable peat. T-shirts that can later be used as compost are also now on the market. But you can’t convert everything to compost. Braungart:What can’t be used as humus should be designed in a manner ensuring it can be recycled over and over again without any loss of quality. This could be done with everything from office chairs to sneakers. In- stead, however, most materials today are gen- erally “recycled down,” and the result is lower and lower quality. Not only that, they often contain a lot of pollutants. Even a classical eco- logical product like recycled toilet paper can contaminate millions of liters of water. Remaking The Way We Make Things Would a cradle-to-cradle world produce absolutely no waste? Braungart:Yes: Even automobile exhaust gas could serve as a source of valuable raw materi- als. At the moment, for example, we’re work- ing on a technology that can convert nitrogen oxide exhaust into valuable fertilizer. How would complex products like TVs or computer chips be recycled? Braungart:We simply have to reinvent our products. Of course, at the beginning, there is the pure market-economy question, which is: What do customers want? Well, they certainly don’t want a TV that contains more than 4,000 different contaminants; they just want to tificate also serves as a recruiting ad for young scientists. Ultimately, our award brings to- gether those experts who are the driving forces behind intelligent innovations. In that sense the cradle-to-cradle certificate is also a communication platform. Steven Spielberg is also a big believer in cradle-to-cradle. He’s given your institute $2 million and is producing a documen- tary film about your work. Braungart:I can’t comment on that due to contractual issues. But I can say that there are many celebrities in the U.S. who publicly pro- mote the cradle-to-cradle concept, including Cameron Diaz, Brad Pitt, and Susan Sarandon. watch a movie or a show. Consumers want clean clothes, but not necessarily a washing machine. In such cases, it makes sense to sell the utility rather than the product. It’s like a kind of ecological leasing — and if the prod- ucts were to remain owned by the manufac- turer, completely different types of materials could be used to make them. These would be the best materials rather than the cheapest. Right now, for example, we’re working with an automaker to build a car body whose compo- nents will be glued rather than welded to- gether. The vehicle won’t be sold; instead cus- tomers will purchase 100,000 kilometers of use. After they’re done, the body will be im- mersed in a solution containing bacteria that will break down the adhesive, allowing the components to be used again. Isn’t the production of such high-quality products expensive? Braungart:Experience has shown that com- panies can profit quickly from their cradle-to- cradle products. Airbus has cut costs by 20 per- cent with its new seat coverings, for example, because it no longer has to dispose of the old upholstery as hazardous waste. Occupational safety costs are also lower — and in general, cradle-to-cradle products sell well because people don’t mind spending money on them. Does your institute issue cradle-to-cradle certificates to companies as well as products? Braungart:When implemented, the cradle-to- cradle concept becomes part of corporate cul- ture. Those who work for a cradle-to-cradle company tend to be proud of the fact. The cer- Arnold Schwarzenegger also recently declared California to be a “cradle-to-cradle state.” Why is Germany, your home country, so unenthusiastic about the concept? Braungart:Many Germans excessively ro- manticize nature and quickly view technical and chemical innovations as a threat. Still, it’s possible to look at cradle-to-cradle rationally, as they do in Japan, where it’s synonymous with quality assurance. In Japan, a product that contains pollutants and that can’t be recy- cled is simply considered a bad product. Do you expect the concept of never- ending cycles to take hold over the next few decades? Braungart:I’m optimistic because more and more young, motivated engineers and scien- tists are becoming top managers. In addition, developments in some countries are proceed- ing much faster than we anticipated. The Netherlands, for example, is well on its way to becoming a cradle-to-cradle nation every- where from its kindergartens to its royal palaces. We have a lot of projects there, in which we’re working on new cradle-to-cradle ideas with construction and civil engineering companies, electronics manufacturers, and government agencies. Cradle-to-cradle prod- ucts also sell very well in the Netherlands. Could legislation promote the concept? Braungart:No. People have to want to buy these products. They have to believe in the cra- dle-to-cradle concept. As this happens, a popu- lar phrase will acquire enhanced meaning: Yes, we can.Interview by Andrea Hoferichter determine how appealing a lamp is to con- sumers,” Merz explains. Such a study could ne- cessitate altering lamp shapes to conform with consumer tastes, even if a different design would offer a technologically superior solution. It’s also important that the lamps have a dim- mer function and can be easily integrated into existing lighting systems. Of course, they should also emit pleasant, natural-looking light. After all, environmen- tally-sound lighting should create a relaxing ef- fect. But there’s no time to relax for Osram’s lamp developer. They’re already busy working on the next generation of innovative lighting systems. Andrea Hoferichter The DULUX EL’s Energy Consumption and CO 2 Emissions are more than 80% Lower than those of Light Bulbs over a 15,000-Hour Life Span 15 x 60 W light bulbs (1,000 h each) Production 0.18 kg CO 2 /lamp x 15 = 2.7 kg CO 2 Use 39.78 kg CO 2 /lamp x 15 = 596.7 kg CO 2 Total: 599.4 kg CO 2 Production 0.33 kg CO 2 /lamp x 7.5 = 2.5 kg CO 2 Use 55.7 kg CO 2 /lamp x 7.5 = 417.7 kg CO 2 Total: 420.2 kg CO 2 Production 0.87 kg CO 2 /lamp x 1= 0.87 kg CO 2 Use 109.4 kg CO 2 /lamp x 1 = 109.4 kg CO 2 Total: 110.3 kg CO 2 7.5 x 42 W HALOGEN ENERGY SAVER (2,000 h each) 1 x 11 W DULUX EL LONGLIFE (15,000 h) 599.4 kg CO 2 9,723 MJ of primary energy used 6,817 MJ 1,789 MJ 420.2 kg CO 2 110.3 kg CO 2 -2,906 MJ -7,934 MJ -30% CO 2 -81% CO 2 Source: OSRAM Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 2120 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Life Cycle Planning | Holistic Assessments I t was a power company in Italy that got the ball rolling. Seeking information for its recy- cling documentation, the company asked Siemens in 2005 about the substances con- tained in its Siprotec power protection devices. Siprotec devices prevent high-voltage lines and terminal equipment from being damaged in the event of excess voltage or lightning strikes. “That was the start of life cycle assessment for the Siprotec device family,” says Frank Wala- chowicz of Siemens Corporate Technology (CT) in Berlin. Walachowicz and his team of materi- als experts were asked to completely dismantle the shoebox-sized Siprotec protection devices, study their insides, and assess their environ- mental friendliness. Among the questions to be answered by the team were the following: What resources were used in the production of the coils, resistors, circuits, and capacitors? How much primary en- ergy was used in the process? What emissions Life cycle assessments can be prepared for a variety of products, from small power protection devices (left) to the Corex/Finex process for the production of pig iron. Products From Dust to Dust Ever more companies are assessing the environmental impact of their products and production processes. One recognized method of doing this is life cycle assessment, in which environmentally relevant data are collected and visualized over a product’s entire existence —— from raw materials to recycling. Siemens has now presented its first-ever life cycle assessment, which focuses on the production process for pig iron. cycle assessment can be prepared for a single product. It can refer to a transportation process or be tailored to a plant. “When I joined CT in 1991, software was ex- tremely limited in term of its ability to process information. Nor was it possible to model process sequences and material flows for prod- ucts, production lines or locations. You had to laboriously enter all of the data into an Excel spreadsheet,” recalls Walachowicz. Today, however, his team has better tools at its disposal — namely, commercial software such as GaBi (an acronym based on German words for holistic balancing), with which com- prehensive life cycle balances can be prepared. GaBi also helps CT staff with the manage- ment of large volumes of data and the model- ing of product life cycles. “Once models have been created, we think about what can be im- proved. For example, we try to make the processes more energy-efficient and less re- term. Life cycle assessments help them to in- tensify their efforts to protect the environment while putting these efforts on an objective foundation. Why Corex/Finex Cuts Emissions. In 2008, Siemens’ Industry Solutions Division asked Walachowicz and his team to assess Corex/Finex, two innovative processes for the production of pig iron. The Corex technology (Pictures of the Future, Fall 2006, p. 39) was developed by Austrian Siemens subsidiary VAI — which today is part of Siemens Industry So- lutions — and is considered to be particularly easy on the environment. With conventional blast furnace processes, coke and sinter are re- quired to produce pig iron from iron ore. A Corex plant, on the other hand, can be oper- ated with ordinary hard coal. Finex is a refine- ment of Corex. Here, the pig iron is produced from ore fines in a single process step. Neither a coking plant nor a sintering plant are required with Corex/Finex. Thus, not only is resource consumption lower, but investment and pro- duction costs are also lower than with a con- ventional blast furnace. The Technical University of Denmark, the Technical University of Berlin, and the Univer- sity of Leoben in Austria also participated in drawing up the life cycle assessment. “Siemens contributed the steel-making expertise and the universities provided the methodological foundation for the life cycle assessment,” says Walachowicz. Scientists compared the Corex/Finex process with that of a traditional blast furnace and measured impact on air, wa- ter, and soil. Every step was assessed, from mining and preparation of raw materials to manufacturing processes and processes such as dedusting, scrubbing, and desulphurization. and wastes were produced during their manu- facture, transport, operation and disposal? The CT experts began by preparing a materials declaration and then designing a life cycle assessment model that was based on the data revealed by their research. The result demon- strated that climate-relevant emissions occur primarily during the use phase of the protec- tion devices’ life cycle. In the late 1990s, the question of the envi- ronmental impact of a product over its entire life cycle was still a rather exotic subject pur- sued by universities and research institutes. The first simplified method for measuring cli- mate-relevant emissions was introduced in early 2000. Since then, life cycle assessments have developed into a holistic tool for the col- lection, documentation, and graphic represen- tation of environmentally relevant data. A life source-intensive,” explains Walachowicz. Even though GaBi takes a lot of work off their hands, CT experts like him still spend roughly 80 per- cent of their working time looking for informa- tion about materials or component substances. One of the first orders for the preparation of a comprehensive life cycle assessment was re- ceived in 2005 from Siemens’ former Commu- nications Division, which wanted an assess- ment of a family of telephone systems. This was followed by similar orders pertaining to mobile phones and medical devices. “But it was the order from Italy for power protection de- vices that started the trend toward determining the environmental impact of products,“ says Walachowicz. The reduced availability of resources such as water and energy is forcing companies world- wide to do business with an eye to the long “There are enormous differences, particu- larly with respect to emissions. The blast fur- nace process produces significantly more sulfur dioxide per metric ton of pig iron than does Corex/Finex. Emissions of dust and oxides of ni- trogen are similarly reduced. And post- Corex/Finex waste water contains significantly less ammonia, phenols, and sulfides,” says Wolfgang Grill of Siemens VAI. Grill, an expert from VAI’s Reduction Tech- nology department, has been working on the development of the Corex process for five years. He points out that one of the major ad- vantages of the process is that steel producers can use the gas produced during the Corex process to drive turbines and thus generate electricity for their own use. “Even though the production of steel continues to be associated with the consumption of energy and resources as well as CO 2 emissions, Corex/Finex has a much better life cycle assessment than the 0 Conventional blast furnace COREX FINEX Conventional blast furnace COREX FINEX EU-25 China Brazil Life Cycle Assessment of Processes by Region Conventional blast furnace COREX FINEX The same technologies at different locations have different environmental impacts. Corex, for example, can help to reduce acidification in China because the gas produced during the Corex process can be used to generate electricity, elimi- nating the need to burn sulfur-rich coal. (Abiotic) resource consumption Acidification potential Summer smog: near-ground formation of oxidants such as ozone Eutrophication (nutrient enrichment) Greenhouse gases Unweighted CML normalization Source: Siemens 22 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 23 Life Cycle Planning | Holistic Assessments blast furnace process. Corex/Finex is particu- larly advantageous in economies where sulfur- rich coal is used to generate electricity,” con- cludes Walachowicz. That’s because the high-energy-value gas produced during the production of pig iron can replace conventional process sequences in power generation. The gas can be converted into electrical en- ergy in a combined-cycle power plant to help cover a steel plant’s own electrical power re- quirements. “The Corex process helps to reduce CO 2 emissions by up to 30 percent, but that’s not all. It also has the advantage that it does not contribute to the acidification of the environ- ment. This is of particular benefit in China, be- cause the coal-fired power plants there burn lo- cally-mined hard coal characterized by a high sulfur content,” says Walachowicz. One of the reasons that the Siemens Sectors are so interested in the expertise built up by Walachowicz and his team is that Siemens has mandated the use of efficiency-enhancing | Interview Prof. Stig Irving Olsen, 48, an Associate Professor in the Department of Quantitative Sustainability Assessment at the Techni- cal University of Denmark, was a member of the team of scientists that advised and supported Siemens’ evaluation of the Corex process for steel produc- tion. Olsen is recognized worldwide as an expert in the field of environmental life cycle assessment. What’s the purpose of environmental life cycle assessments? Olsen:The purpose is to register all of the negative impacts on the environment that are connected with the manufacture of a product, an item, or the provision of a service. It’s a ho- listic approach in which the environmental compatibility of every step of production — from the extraction and processing of raw ma- terials to the disposal of a product — is regis- tered and evaluated. This body of knowledge then has to be taken into account in the devel- opment of new products and goods. What progress have environmental life cycle assessments made so far? Olsen:The energy crisis of the early 1970s marked the birth of environmental life cycle assessments, but the concept was not subse- quently pursued consistently. In the mid 1980s the packaging industry showed interest, but that was more for marketing reasons in order to enhance its profile and position itself better in the market in comparison with other actors. A scientific approach was gradually worked out, and in 1997–2000 it was standardized by a series of ISO norms. Today, environmental life cycle assessments are part of many EU di- rectives, such as EC2002/96, which covers end-of-life electric and electronic devices. What are the limits of this method? Olsen:Environmental life cycle assessments are very time-consuming and sometimes very hard to perform. That’s especially true if the links of the production chain and the disposal process haven’t been adequately described in terms of their environmental effects. Increas- ingly short life cycles for high-tech industrial goods are a big challenge because of rapidly changing production technologies. Another problem lies in the complex processes used by the chemicals industry, where reactions are of- ten inadequately documented and thus hard to take into account. What are some examples of the use of environmental life cycle assessments? Olsen:Environmental life cycle assessments are conducted in almost all areas of industry, from the sectors that process raw materials to the consumer goods and waste disposal indus- tries. One can also conduct environmental life cycle assessments of materials such as steel, Developing a Holistic Approach to Environmental Impact aluminum, and plastics. In principle, almost all products can be evaluated using environmen- tal compatibility criteria. That also applies to complex production processes such as those that support agriculture and meat production. In these areas it is important to also take into account the production processes of the raw materials involved, such as animal feed. The petrochemical industry with its refining processes is also a candidate for environmental life cycle assessments. How did you organize your work with Siemens? Olsen:Our department has accumulated wide experience with European companies. How- Olsen:It’s obvious that an industrial company has to operate profitably. Companies have an interest in enhancing their attractiveness to customers and public sector clients with the help of environmental life cycle assessments. Such assessments not only improve the envi- ronmental compatibility of products and their production processes, they also sharpen con- sumers’ awareness of environmental issues. And they help people to identify potential ways of saving resources and reducing energy con- sumption. At universities, the focus is generally on the academic interest — in other words, on research. For politics and the public sector, environmental life cycle assessments are im- portant tools that can encourage companies to ever, many of these projects were academic in nature. In other words, they were managed by the university, but the results were not neces- sarily implemented within companies. With Siemens, it was clear from the start that the re- search results would be incorporated into the company’s own environmental protection pro- gram and implemented. Besides, it was very important for Siemens that the results be ap- plicable in practice. What have you learned from working with Siemens? Olsen:The aim was to create a framework for Siemens so that it could improve the environ- mental compatibility of its products and pro- duction processes. To do so, we had to adjust our assessment methods so that Siemens could use them effectively. The assessment process also had to be compatible with the Corex/Finex process we studied for Siemens in order to show how the method works. Of course the company couldn’t adjust its techni- cal processes to our methods; instead, we had to subordinate our method to existing produc- tion processes. As external scientific advisers, we could only offer our ideas and expertise; Siemens’ management was responsible for im- plementing them. However, we didn’t want to prepare a report that would only gather dust on a shelf once the project was over. We con- sidered it important to sensitize Siemens em- ployees to the importance of conducting envi- ronmental life cycle assessments. Do you make a distinction between the re- quirements of industry and those of public authorities or of a university? engage in greener and more sustainable pro- duction and consumption. What’s the outlook for environmental assessments? Olsen:They are increasingly developing into an instrument with whose help environmental policy directives can be gently implemented in the EU and other parts of the world. They also support the increasing interest in sustainable lifestyles by providing concrete data. In contrast to the carbon footprint, which mainly takes into account CO 2 emissions, environmental life cy- cle assessment are holistic. They take into ac- count all the substances that impact the envi- ronment. Companies everywhere are starting to recognize the signs of the times and are us- ing environmental life cycle assessments not only to optimize their products but also to cor- rect weak spots in production processes. The European Commission is now preparing a handbook with directives and data sets that will serve as universal guidelines for many indus- trial sectors. The aim is to increase trust in the assessment process and the level of acceptance within industry. The climate debate has greatly increased industrial companies’ efforts to re- duce CO 2 emissions as much as possible and produce CO 2 -neutral products. But focusing only on CO 2 isn’t the right way to arrive at the most environmentally compatible lifestyle, as it doesn’t take into account the toxic risks of many chemical substances. There’s a danger that people will assume that minimizing CO 2 emissions is the same thing as achieving a good level of environmental compatibility. We have to counteract this tendency early on. Interview by Evdoxia Tsakiridou. technologies and materials in all of its products and the avoidance of CO 2 emissions. Siemens has invested a great deal of effort over many years in continuously refining its own environ- mental management system, which includes the company standard SN 36 350 for the “envi- ronmentally compatible design of products and plants.” This standard helps company development engineers to comply with the environmental declaration that is required by the German gov- ernment. Even more important in Walachow- icz’s eyes is consideration of environmental im- pact during the development process prior to the construction of a plant and the product production process itself — a task for which life cycle assessments are ideally suited. Environmental assessments also drive com- petition for the most environmentally friendly developments. “Life cycle assessments enable Siemens business units to show how much bet- ter they are than the competition,” says Wala- chowicz.Evdoxia Tsakiridou Conventional blast furnace Conventional blast- funace & VAiron COREX FINEX -2% Corex/Finex: major reductions in resource consumption, acidification and ozone formation -35% -31% (Abiotic) resource consumption Acidification potential Summer smog: near-ground formation of oxidants such as ozone Eutrophication (nutrient enrichment in bodies of water) Greenhouse Gases Unweighted CML normalization Region EU-25 CML is a method to normalize various environmental impacts to make them comparable. Environmental Impact of Pig Iron Production Source: Siemens Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 2524 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Life Cycle Planning | Rail Systems T he assembly hall is filled with locomotives, some of them missing their roofs, others without control cabins. And some are even mounted on temporary platforms that make them appear to be floating on air. Martin Leitel, who is responsible for making life cycle assess- ments of locomotives for Siemens Mobility in Allach, Germany, points to a yellow locomotive without a roof. “That one’s going to Australia,” he says, a country where rail service operators recently started making energy conservation a At a Siemens locomotive factory in Allach, Germany, efforts to maximize product environmental compatibility and flexibility include, among other things, the use of LED signal lights (facing page). Timely Trains Today’s locomotives should consume as little energy as possible — not just when they are in operation, but also during production and eventual recycling. Life cycle assessments can help with selection of the most environmentally compatible designs. product’s life to disposal, which will soon be- come the legal responsibility of the manufac- turer. As a result, developers must now plan to recycle as many components as possible. To ensure that the associated analyses — also known as material balances — remain ac- curate, Leitel relies on an extensive database containing thousands of parts numbers and in- formation on the materials used in each com- ponent. This database reveals, for example, that the left door of a locomotive control cabin energy consumption is highest. With freight trains it’s clearly locomotive operation itself. Over a service life of roughly 30 years, a loco- motive in Europe emits between 200,000 and 400,000 metric tons of CO 2 , depending on the type of use. Locomotive production results in only about 250 metric tons of CO 2 emissions, however. And the recycling phase generates savings of 100 metric tons of CO 2 because over 95 percent of the materials in a modern loco- motive are recyclable. These materials — for ly good for the environment. A locomotive also shouldn’t be too light because it has to pull a train 20 to 30 times its own weight. When asked if all the environmental effort that is now being implemented will ultimately pay off in the form of orders, Leitel says he’s certain it will, but cautions that “the locomotive market is price-sensitive, so the sales price is still often decisive.” Nevertheless, customers are well aware of the fact that the purchase price of a locomotive A database lists the primary energy consumption and car- bon dioxide emissions associated with different materials. higher priority. In fact, the model will be the first electric locomotive on the island continent to be equipped with an energy recovery sys- tem. The system collects braking energy gener- ated on downhill stretches by trains full of coal that are traveling from the interior of the coun- try to the coast. It then feeds the energy into the grid for use by empty trains going uphill. Another locomotive, Leitel explains, is for a European leasing company. It’s equipped with a transformer that achieves optimal efficiency because it was built using more copper than is usual, which also makes it heavier than similar units. In order to compensate for the trans- former’s additional weight, other parts of the locomotive must be lighter, which is why its roof is made of aluminum. Naturally, all of this results in higher energy consumption during manufacturing. But, as Leitel points out, after only a few years of operation, the transformer’s high efficiency and the aluminum’s light weight counterbalance these energy costs. Such conflicts are a part of Leitel’s routine. In addition to conducting life cycle assessments (LCAs), his job at the Allach locomotive factory near Munich is to ensure coordination with customers when drawing up custom-tailored technical specifications for their locomotives. Combining these two goals has proved to be a good idea. “Customers simply want a good lo- comotive that meets the highest environmen- tal standards,” he says. What’s more, life cycle analyses are often a prerequisite for taking part in tendering processes. Quick LCAs. Munich has been a locomotive production site since 1841 — at one time un- der the name Krauss-Maffei, whose logo still adorns the front of the factory hall that Siemens took over in 1999. But much has changed over the years. While steam locomo- tives churned out enormous amounts of soot and carbon dioxide, their modern counterparts are subject to strict environmental regulations. And it’s not just the emissions caused by opera- tion of these powerful locomotives that need to be low; environmental impact throughout their entire life cycles must also be kept to a minimum. This begins with the manufacturing process and continues all the way through the weighs 87.1 kilograms, including 68.1 kilos of aluminum, 6.6 kilos of glass, and 4.2 kilos of elastomers, with the remaining weight ac- counted for by other materials, including steel and insulation elements. Just a few mouse clicks is all it takes to eval- uate specific assemblies or material classes and determine their proportion of total weight. An- other database lists the primary energy con- sumption and carbon dioxide emissions associ- ated with each material, as well as regional the most part metals and coolants — are reused, which obviates the CO 2 emissions that would have been produced if the materials had been manufactured from scratch. Materials Review. Leitel believes that the ma- terial analysis process can be improved. “We’re reviewing the entire range of materials now in use,” he says. The idea is to use batteries that don’t contain heavy metals, as well as coolants made of biodegradable materials — and to differences. For example, an aluminum panel made in Iceland, a country that uses a lot of re- newable energy, has a much lower CO 2 value than one from China, where most electricity is generated in coal-fired power plants. The material analysis does not extend down to the last bolt; this would require too much ef- fort and expense. “We make a general estimate of the energy consumption and emissions of small components,” Leitel explains. The analy- sis ultimately produces charts that show where generally ensure that new designs have more recyclable parts by avoiding use of composites as much as possible. “The ideal would be to loosen a few bolts and have the whole locomo- tive break apart into sets of unmixed materi- als,” Leitel explains. Not every trend is as good as it sounds, however. Although lightweight construction with plastics and composites reduces operating energy consumption, it also poses recycling problems, which means that it is not necessari- Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 27 | Power Plant Optimization Oh What a Tune-Up! It takes around a decade to plan and build a power plant. As a result, within a few years of commission- ing, most plants no longer meet the latest techno- logical standards. But in many cases, replacement of key parts and adjustments to a plant’s control system can help it to meet evolving requirements, save huge amounts of energy, and significantly reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Siemens is a leader in upgrading existing facilities. Engineers at Siemens’ Mülheim plant near Dusseldorf, Germany have developed a range of solutions for significantly improving the performance and efficiency of power plants. W hen it comes to the quest for optimal performance, nothing beats a well-oiled Formula One racing car team. Here a tightly drilled squad of mechanics waits in the pits, poised to swap tires, tighten bolts and tweak components — all in pursuit of a few more mph or a little extra traction. In some ways, tuning up a power plant is a similar endeavor. Even if it doesn’t move like a Formula One car, it often has to be run at full load, just like Felipe Massa’s Ferrari at the Nür- burgring race circuit. When operating in this mode, a power plant generates a lot of energy, usually in the form of electricity. At other times, when the grid’s hunger for power is lower, the plant is operated at partial load. But unlike racing cars, power plants do best when operated at a relatively uniform pace. No gas turbine or coal-fired boiler, for instance, can reach full power in seconds. In fact, de- pending on the type of plant, reaching full out- put may require anything between 10 minutes and several hours. Increasingly, however, electricity companies need to be able to ramp up generation on short notice, not least because the growing use of re- newable sources of energy leads to greater fluctuations in capacity. Since the wind and sun are variable factors, solar and wind farms feed power into the grid on an irregular basis. For this reason, the hours of darkness or peri- ods of calm at sea must be bridged by conven- tional base load power plants. This, in turn, means that such plants need to operate more flexibly than before in order to compensate for load variations and prevent blackouts. Older plants in particular have problems cushioning such rapid changes in load. Given the growing trend toward renewable energy 26 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Life Cycle Planning | Rail Systems is only around 15 percent of the cost of power- ing it throughout its service life. “So a ten per- cent higher list price for a locomotive still pays off for the customer if energy efficiency is two percentage points better than the competi- tion’s,” Leitel points out. Recyclable Subway. This argument is familiar to Dr. Walter Struckl, who works at Siemens Mobility in Vienna, where subway trains, rail- way cars, and trams are built. The market for these products is also extremely price sensitive, Siemens locomotives are designed to be efficient — for instance by returning braking energy to the grid that is generated when traveling downhill. A ten percent higher purchase price pays off for customers if energy efficiency is two percentage points higher . together with hook-and-loop fasteners rather than glue, for example, which makes it easy to disassemble them. The LCA, however, can still be improved. Ex- perts estimate that an additional 30 percent in energy savings could be achieved in actual op- eration and that the associated costs would be recouped in one year, says Struckl — even though the system already consumes around one-third less energy than its predecessor, mostly thanks to more efficient heating and more effective insulation. derground and its winters are warmer, mean- ing that its trains can get by with less heating and that an investment in improved insulation wouldn’t really pay off anyway. What would pay dividends, says Stuckl, would be a more ef- ficient drive unit like the Syntegra bogie with its permanently excited gearless electric mo- tors, which Siemens is testing as a prototype (see Pictures of the Future, Fall 2007, p. 70). Struckl’s goal is to turn the focus away from the LCA of individual assemblies and toward the overall mobility system. Siemens offers de- and energy-saving innovations here have to pay for themselves within two to three years. Struckl opens a copy of his doctoral disserta- tion from Vienna Technical University. In this work, Struckl calculated down to the last detail the energy balance of the Oslo subway system — probably the most efficient subway in the world in terms of resource conservation. When Struckl joined Siemens in 2003, it still wasn’t possible to market the environmental aspects of a product, but today LCAs are a normal part of the tendering process. Life cycle costs have to do with costs, but life cycle assessments ad- dress environmental concerns. People tend to confuse the two, says Struckl — but they’re not contradictory, given that greater energy effi- ciency usually has a rapid and positive effect on life cycle costs. With regard to the Oslo subway system, a total of 84 percent of its materials can be recy- cled; the rest are burned and the resulting en- ergy is exploited. There isn’t much left to im- prove here because the rail cars are held Mobility in Context. Struckl warns against generalizations, explaining there is no such thing as a “good” or “bad” LCA. Absolute num- bers, such as those for CO 2 emissions, don’t re- veal much in and of themselves. Instead, each application scenario must be carefully studied in context in order to develop optimal meas- ures. Subway trains such as those in Oslo, for vices that store braking energy either on trains themselves or as stationary units on tracks. The company also supplies efficient technologies for producing electricity at power plants and transporting it to tracks, as well as traffic man- agement systems that intelligently network rail and road transport. Siemens’ Complete Mobili- ty concept attracted lots of interest at the Inno- example, produce only 827 metric tons of CO 2 during a 30-year service life — a low figure due to the fact that 99 percent of Norway’s electric- ity is generated with hydro power. On the other hand, the same trains would emit 47,900 met- ric tons of CO 2 equivalent if operated in the Czech Republic because most of that country’s electricity comes from coal-fired power plants. But unlike Oslo’s trains, Prague’s run mostly un- trans fair in September 2008 in Berlin. These days, companies in Norway receive a cash bonus for every kilowatt-hour of energy saved; and other countries plan to introduce emission trading systems for the transportation sector. “When transport companies also begin to bear the cost of carbon dioxide emissions, many of them will quickly become interested in our in- novations,” predicts Struckl. Bernd Müller 28 Pictur es of t he F utur e | Spr ing 2009 Pictur es of t he F utur e | Spr ing 2009 29 Life Cycle Planning | Power Plant Optimization sources, a lot of base-load plants now need to be upgraded. And there’s another, equally pressing reason to modernize existing turbines, boilers, and generators: With the cost of fuels such as gas and oil set to become more and more expensive in the long term, operators are looking for optimal efficiency from their power plants. What’s more, as they invest in efficiency improvements, they and their customers stand to benefit from reduced carbon dioxide emis- sions per kilowatt of energy produced. Teasing out the maximum. According to estimates by the German Association of Energy and Water Industries (BDEW), a quarter of Germany’s total generating ca- pacity of 130 gigawatts needs to be re- placed for climate-protection reasons and due to the fact that many power plants are three or four decades old. That, says the BDEW , will require investment of 40 billion euros between now and 2020. At the same time, the International Energy Agency cal- culat es that t he colossal sum of $16 tr illion will be needed until 2030 to expand and modernize the world’s energy infrastruc- ture. Around $10 trillion of this is ear- mar k ed f or pow er suppl y systems. The modernization and upgrading of power plants is an important line of busi- ness at Siemens Energy. In the German town of Mülheim an der Ruhr, it’s the job of Ralf Hendricks and his colleagues from the Lifetime Management Unit to turn com- bined cycle power plants (CCPPs), which are operated at base load, into racing ma- c hines. On behalf of a client in the UK, for e x ample, they have recently upgraded a CCPP without having to replace any com- ponents. The f ir s t step was an inspection t our of t he facility t o determine its condi- tion, as a pr er eq uisite for puting together a package of measures that is tailored to the customer’s needs. After that, a team of ex- perts from Mülheim and Erlangen traveled to England for three days to optimize all parameters of the 400-megawatt plant, modifying the load ramps of the steam and gas turbines, for example, and adjusting the pressure rates to the boiler. By fine-tuning these parameters, the team was able to optimize the operations control system, which means full load can now be reached with maximum speed. “Optimizing the open and closed-loop con- trol technology helped us get the best out of the plant,” Hendricks confirms. As a re- sult it now takes only 60 minutes, rather than an two hours, for the turbine to run up to full load after having been shut down for ten hours. In other words, only one it now takes only 60 hours,” says Hen- dricks. That’s a time difference of four days, which is a valuable saving when an operator is waiting to start routine inspec- tion and maintenance. Energy providers that rely on this technique can save mil- lions of euros for every overhaul, for mini- mal investment costs. Efficient Megawatts In addition to shorten- ing start-up and shutdown times, improve- ments can also be made in other areas. For ex- ample, upgrading individual components not only increases the service life of a power plant but also improves its efficiency, which in turn reduces its carbon dioxide emissions. There is often also scope to extract more performance from the turbines without the need for extra fuel consumption, thereby in- largements are usually not an option in an exist- ing plant. “This is a huge benefit for customers,” explains Dr. Norbert Henkel, who is responsible for upgrading steam turbines at Siemens in Erlangen, Germany. “We fit between 20 to 25 power plants a year with upgraded turbines.” Last but not least, there is also the generator, which converts the rotary motion of the tur- bine into electrical energy. In itself, a generator has an efficiency of almost 100 percent. How- ever, it has to be tailored to other components, which as a rule age faster. In older plants, for ex- ample,the turbine blades have to be replaced either because the material has become brittle and there is a danger of failure or in order to make the turbine more efficient. “It’s like a champion cyclist getting onto a normal bike,” says Anastassios Dimitriadis from Siemens En- ergy in Mülheim. “Obviously we have to check Time saved due to a reduction in cooling time can cut the cost of overhauling large power plants by millions of euros. hour elapses from the time the gas turbine is started until it runs up to full load — and wit hout the need f or any ne w har dware. In only half the time it used to take, the power plant is up to full load and feeding its total output of 400 MW into the grid. Such improvements soon pay off. Usu- ally after one to two years’ time, the oper- ator has recovered the costs of the up- grade. But cost savings are realized not only when running up a CCPP: Using the f orced cooling technique reduces the time needed t o cool t he steam turbine. The trick is to actively cool the steam turbine by ex- tr acting air fr om t he turbine hall. “Instead of ha ving t o w ait 160 hours for the turbine t o cool bef or e the plant can be shut down, creasing generating capacity without addition- ally burdening the environment. The effective- nes s of a turbine depends ver y much on its blades and flow area. In this connection, major advances in the field of 3D computer simula- tion over the last 20 years have given rise to the development of turbine blades that exhibit very low flow resistance. Moreover, when additional improvements are made to the blade path, this reduces losses even further, thus resulting in v ery high efficiency. This means that as much t hermal energy as possible is transferred from t he g as or steam to the turbine blades. All of this, in turn, allows efficiency to be in- cr eased wit hout ha ving to increase the volume of g as sw ep t by the blades and therefore the size of t he turbine. That ’ s important, since turbine en- As might be expected, this kind of upgrad- ing is of major interest to utility companies, since it can yield substantial cost savings. “Modernization is an important step on the road toward greater cost efficiency and climate protection,” says Nikolaus Schmidt from Eon Energie in Hanover. For Schmidt, Mehrum is a great example of a successful energy efficiency project, as is the Farge coal-fired plant near Bremen, where effi- ciency has been ratcheted up by three percent- age points to 42 percent. All in all, he estimates that upgrading at Mehrum and Farge has re- sulted in the creation of 200 “green megawatts” of additional generating capacity, which for operator Eon will mean a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions of almost a million metric tons by 2010. “Inevitably, the state of technology in the energy industry tends to lag behind the latest t echnological developments,” points out Thomas Sattelmayer, Professor of Thermody- namics at the Technical University in Munich.F or this r eason, ev er y new power plant that goes online is already to a certain extent out of date. “It therefore makes good sense to upgrade efficiency when conducting routine maint enance,” sa y s Satt elma y er, who is spokesman of “Kraftwerk 21,” a Bavarian energy research alliance. Sattelmayer sees huge business opportunities in the optimiza- tion of power plants. Whatever the outcome of that prediction, government interest in reducing carbon diox- ide emissions from power plants certainly co- incides with the goals of utility companies, whic h want to operate the most efficient plants pos sible. Consider ing this, we can ex- pect to see a major increase in the number of pr ojects intr oduced t o upgrade the efficiency and s t ar t-up speeds of power plants in the y ear s t o come. Jeanne R ubner whether the existing generator is up to handling the increased performance.” If necessary, a new rotor has to be installed or the coils rewound. Upgrading Output. Over the years Siemens has ramped up the performance of many power plants. At the Forsmark nuclear power plant in Sweden, for example, all the internal parts of the low-pressure turbines were re- cently replaced, which not only boosted the ca- pacity of the facility by 30 megawatts — or al- most three percent of its total rating of 1,200 megawatts — but also extended its service life. The same applies to coal-fired power plants. Using Siemens technology, the output of the 690-megawatt Mehrum facility, which is situ- ated east of Hanover, in northern Germany,was increased by 38 megawatts, thus boosting efficiency from 38.5 to 40.4 percent. St art-Up Times for Full-Load Operation Output (%) Almost 100% output after 40% of the time formerly required Gas turbine ignition Time (%) 0 40 100 Upgraded power plant Standard power plant 20 40 60 80 100 Power plant efficiency can often be significantly improved by upgrading operational instrumentation and control systems (below right). Enhancing individual components can also improve efficiency. Sour ce: Siemens Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 3130 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Life Cycle Planning | Manufacturing T he scales fell from my eyes when I saw what the Siemens Production System could mean for us,” says Wolfgang Machate, production director at Messgerätewerk Berlin, Germany, (MWB), a part of Siemens’ Energy Automation Division. MWB manufactures digi- tal protection devices of the SiProtec family. The devices prevent high-voltage lines and ter- minal equipment from being damaged in the event of excess voltage or lightning strikes. Machate isn’t the only one who suddenly saw the light. The 400 other employees at the plant are equally energized. “All of us were so used to the shortcomings in our working meth- ods that we were blind to them,” says Machate. “Now, we see things in a different light and are much better at identifying waste and potential improvements.” Machate is not referring to machine produc- tion times, nor is he alluding to the use of ma- terials. He means, for instance, that inventories of fully assembled equipment used to collect dust in the production hall; that workers had to go long distances to pick up materials and had to waste time during functional testing; that they would repeatedly interrupt their duties to prepare for the next step in a process, sort tools, or organize records; and that after every step, the product would end up in a container where it would wait for the next worker to carry out the next step. Time was therefore wasted again and again. Today, everything at MWB is different. The Siemens Production System (SPS) was intro- duced at MWB in the spring of 2008. And it The “Siemens Production System” is optimizing processes with U-shaped work cells such as those at the Messgerätewerk plant in Berlin (left), and at plants that produce wind and industrial turbines. High-Speed Throughput The new Siemens Production System is the first company-wide mechanism aimed at dramatically optimizing production. At one location it led to a 90 percent reduction in throughput times as well as higher quality and productivity. lated departments, such as purchasing and de- velopment. There are also training programs designed to develop SPS specialists. “One im- portant element is communication. We start at the very top with decision-makers. They have to believe in SPS and set an example. That’s the only way they can get workers onboard,” says Müssig. By 2010, 80 percent of all Siemens plants will have launched the SPS — which means there is plenty of work for Müssig’s team. After all, Siemens runs approximately 300 produc- tion sites in 40 countries. At the moment, U-shaped cells. And since May 2008, they have been working together in these U-shaped areas in a permanent group. With this arrangement, all the work steps are synchronized, and the re- quired materials are ready at hand, as are tools and testing equipment. When employees complete a shift, they can pass unfinished products to incoming col- leagues so that the next step can be completed without missing a beat. Each worker passes un- finished products on to the next person in the production chain until each product is ready and packaged. Seamless Flow. The plant has thus moved away from batch production and now concen- trates on “one-piece flow” production. Whereas, previously, a typical 50-piece order went through a process and then waited for the next step, each individual piece now runs through the entire process chain without any intermediate stops. This rearrangement results in many advantages: The work area has not only been optimized for each step in the process, but has become smaller and easier to navigate. The distance between workstations is as short as possible. And re-sorting stages and needlessly subdivided steps have become a thing of the past. “Our processes are now more synchronous and better adjusted to one another,” says Machate, who points out that productivity has already risen 20 percent at MWB, and that throughput time has been shortened by more than 90 percent. In the past, it took four days for a product to be produced, fully packaged and ready for transport to the warehouse. But today it takes only an hour. The number of unfinished parts has been reduced by 95 percent and the reject rate by 25 percent. What’s more, SPS has freed up about 1,200 square meters of space at the MWB plant, a savings of 30 percent. Lean production is currently experiencing a renaissance. Nevertheless, Müssig concedes, the pioneer in this field — Toyota — is still unri- valed. So far, no other technology company has succeeded in introducing a uniform, inte- amounted to the first company-wide effort to focus on lean production — a methodology that Toyota introduced to the auto industry in 1940. But although the concept has been around for a long time, the trick to its success is to implement it systematically at all times. “Our SPS strategy is to design and carry out all processes on the basis of whether they add value,” says Dr. Bernd Müssig of Corporate Sup- ply Chain Management and Procurement (CSP). His department is the extended arm of the Global Manufacturing Board, which is the highest-level Siemens committee responsible for production and represents all of Siemens’ divisions. The Global Manufacturing Board initiated the new production system in 2005 and is re- sponsible for its development. In the SPS, any processes that benefit the customer are viewed as adding value. “That’s why we define as waste the periods in which a product is not pro- gressing because employees are busy rearrang- ing things, sorting or waiting. The customer shouldn’t be expected to pay for rejects or for product storage,” says Müssig. Eliminating Waste. Machate remembers well when representatives of the Corporate Supply Chain Management and Procurement organi- zation visited his plant. There was a desire for more space to expand production. It was only for this reason, in fact, that the CSP experts for plant design were originally called in. “The per- son from CSP wanted to show me how we could gain more room even without an annex while increasing both quality and productivity,” says Machate. “At first, I didn’t understand that.” But the fact that MWB’s parent, the En- ergy Automation Division, could see plenty of ways of improving its subsidiary’s operations should not have come as a surprise given the fact that that Division has led its competitors for many years and can boast increasing earn- ings and growing market share. And the tip to “first eliminate the waste” was therefore not understood immediately. Every- one asked themselves what it was that they could do better. The training session on “learn- ing to see” then revealed the waste that was lurking all around. Machate stood in the production hall inside a circle marked with chalk. For a whole hour, he simply watched. And that opened his eyes. “I was suddenly surprised to see inventories ly- ing all around. If they hadn’t been there, there would have been more space available. It also struck me that workers had to stand around and wait for things. Does that serve the cus- tomer?” says Machate, a 30-year veteran of Siemens, as he recounts his impressions. After the training session, things moved very quickly. In just a few weeks, the workers reorganized their workstations themselves. Be- forehand, they analyzed the whole production process and completely redesigned their work- stations, which they simulated with cardboard models. As they did this, they changed the se- quence of the process steps. The production lines at which they had formerly sat in parallel separated by large spaces were converted into It used to take four days for a product to be produced and packaged. Now it takes only one hour. grated production system. In fact, for most companies, “lean” means little more than an add-on program aimed at cutting costs. But at Siemens, the objective is to make “lean” a vital part of corporate culture. The Siemens Production System should therefore not be be seen as a modular set of building blocks or ready-made concepts imposed on production centers from outside. “The princi- ples of SPS are always the same, but the solu- tion is different in each plant,” says Müssig. “The nice thing about all of this is that it can be implemented right away. You can redesign your production the next day.” The SPS includes training sessions for all employees involved in production and for re- about ten percent of the company’s plants are in the process of implementing the system. But this is only the beginning of Siemens’ transformation into a lean company. “The next challenge is getting leaner in other areas — in logistics, accounting and purchasing, for exam- ple” says Müssig. Those in charge at MWB see things the same way. “We have laid the foundation for production. Next in line are order processing, the technology planning units, and our opera- tions department,” says Machate. Asked what will become of the 1,200 square meters of “ex- tra space,” he doesn’t hesitate for a moment before answering: “That’ll be used for new products.” Evdoxia Tsakiridou Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 3332 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Life Cycle Planning | Appliances T he number-one manufacturer of home ap- pliances in Western Europe, Bosch und Siemens Hausgeräte GmbH (BSH) of Munich, Germany is committed to minimizing the envi- ronmental impact of its products. “Before we develop any new household appliance, we al- ways conduct a thorough analysis of its poten- tial impact,” says Dr. Arno Ruminy of the BSH Environmental Protection department. In fact, a strict internal guideline stipulates that all washing machines, refrigerators, and dryers must have a minimal impact on the environ- ment in all phases of their life cycles. Before the development process even begins, each prod- uct idea is carefully examined in order to iden- tify the most environmentally-compatible and recycle-friendly materials, determine the areas where material savings can be achieved, and produce a design that allows the easy replace- ment of used parts. “Every new device must be better than its predecessor in terms of environ- mental protection,” says Ruminy. By designing energy efficient appliances, BSH is also meeting the needs of its customers. That’s because appliances still account for around 40 percent of total energy consump- tion in private households — despite the effi- ciency gains achieved with refrigerators and such over the last ten years. Life cycle studies carried out by BSH environmental experts also show that such appliances mainly impact the environment through electricity and water con- sumption when they’re being used. “Transport and recycling play only a minor role, and re- At the heart of Siemens’ new dryer is an innovative heat pump (right). Designed to be the most efficient dryer on the market (center), blueTherm passed endurance tests (left) with flying colors. Miracle in the Laundry Room Once considered to be power gluttons, dryers are becoming much more conservative in their energy demand. For instance, Siemens’ new blueTherm heat-pump dryer consumes 40 percent less energy than is permitted within Europe’s top Energy Effi- ciency Class A — a new record. A visit to the develop- ers at BSH Bosch und Siemens Hausgeräte GmbH in Berlin reveals how they achieved this latest success. greenhouse gas, which is why BSH commis- sioned the Institute for Applied Ecology in Freiburg, Germany to determine whether the heat pump approach made sense. As Ruminy explains, the institute established that “the lower energy consumption by far offsets the greenhouse gas potential involved.” The Freiburg experts did, however, emphasize the importance of effective recycling. Specifically, steps would have to be taken to ensure that the dryer’s coolant, like that of a refrigerator, would be disposed of properly and not released into the environment at the end of the ma- chine’s service life. source consumption in production accounts for only a small percentage of the total resources used. In contrast, operation is responsible for more than 90 percent of the overall environ- mental impact of most appliances,” says Ru- miny. In the case of dryers, this figure is as high as 97 percent. “Making things more efficient here will benefit the environment and save consumers money,” Ruminy says. Heat Pump Strategy. Back in August 2006, BSH engineer Kai Nitschmann was given the assignment to develop a clothes dryer equipped with heat-pump technology that would outperform all other dryers on the mar- ket in terms of energy efficiency. The first thing Nitschmann and his colleagues did was to de- fine target values. “We were looking to achieve energy consumption of 2.1 kilowatt-hours for seven kilograms of laundry, which was just slightly above the world record at that time,” Nitschmann recalls. His development team at BSH’s Berlin plant started out by disassembling all types of dryers, counting their nuts and bolts, and weighing their plastic parts. They also measured the dry- ers’ energy consumption and loudness. Their analysis resulted in the conclusion that the only way to achieve their ambitious energy effi- ciency goals was to use a heat pump — a tech- nology that had never before been used in a dryer. “A heat pump prevents the energy con- tained in the vapor and hot air from escaping from the dryer,” says Nitschmann. The results of the team’s efforts are pre- served in a glass case in Nitschmann’s office. There are, for example, copper arteries through which a coolant flows. Circulation is main- tained by a powerful electric motor whose out- put is four times that of the motor that turns the dryer drum. A compressor pumps the con- densed and thus heated coolant into the cop- per pipes, which repeatedly twist through two aluminum frames. The first of these frames is a heating unit in which the coolant transfers the heat it contains to the circulating air. This heated air then flows into the dryer drum, where it absorbs moisture. A second aluminum frame works as a cooler. When hot, humid air returns from the drum, it comes into contact with this frame, which has been cooled down by the cooled coolant. Moisture condenses as the air cools, and the heat obtained from the air is then transferred back into the coolant. “The energy in the hot dryer air and in the vapor is tem- porarily stored in the coolant and then used for heating purposes,” Nitschmann explains. Ruminy points out that the coolant, which is known as R407c, conducts heat very effec- tively, which significantly reduces energy con- sumption. Unfortunately, however, it is also a Meanwhile, developers in Berlin were faced with the challenge of incorporating heat-pump technology into a dryer for the first time, since up until that point they had been used only in refrigerators, air conditioners and heating units. “If it hadn’t been for our Spanish col- leagues’ experience with air conditioners, we wouldn’t have succeeded so quickly,” says Nitschmann. The team in Berlin also had to in- tegrate a second new technology for optimiz- ing efficiency: an innovative lint cleaner for the condenser. “Tiny pieces of lint in the wash can eventu- ally clog condenser frames — and that nega- More than 90 percent of the environmental impact of household appliances results from their operation. Global Market for Environmental Technologies: One Trillion Euros Absolute growth of annual market volume 2005–2020 (in billions of euros) CAGR 2005–2020 Key technologies Source: Roland Berger Energy efficiency 5% Measuring and control technology, electric motors Sustainable water management 6% Decentralized water treatment Energy generation 7% Renewable energy sources, clean power generation Sustainable mobility 5% Alternative drive systems, clean engines Natural resource & material efficiency 8% Biofuels, bioplastics Closed systems, waste, recycling 3% Automated material separation processes 450 290 190 170 90 20 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 35 The Energy-Efficiency Pay Off | Facts and Forecasts T he purpose of energy-efficient products is to help de- couple economic growth from energy consumption. Whereas the global market volume for energy-efficient products and solutions totaled €450 billion in 2005, that figure could rise to approximately €900 billion by 2020, according to an analysis conducted by the Roland Berger consulting firm. The effects of the current economic crisis were not taken into account in the study, but various new stimulus programs that focus on the application of energy- efficient solutions make the future look bright for the sec- tor. Among growth drivers here are energy-saving motors. According to the German Copper Institute, use of a high- efficiency motor to drive a cooling water pump at full ca- pacity for 8,000 hours a year can reduce energy costs by €405 if such a motor replaces a 30 kW standard motor. Given procurement costs of €1,650 for the high-efficiency motor and €1,300 for the standard motor, the amortiza- tion period for the additional cost of the energy-saving motor is only 9.5 months. In combination with frequency converters, for exam- ple, energy-saving motors can help reduce the amount of electricity needed by pumping systems, which according to the EU Commission, account for four percent of global electricity consumption. An important market for this sec- tor is India, where business with pumps and compressors for use in the construction industry, infrastructure proj- ects, agriculture, and the processing industry is booming. According to the Indian Pump Manufacturers Association (IPMA), the sector’s market volume increased at an annual rate of 12–15 percent between 2003 and 2006, when it totaled approximately €1.8 billion. The U.S. is another major market that offers great po- tential for energy-efficient products. An American Solar Energy Society (ASES) study found that market volume for energy-efficient household appliances, lamps, computer equipment, and buildings (including windows and doors) was $160 billion in 2006 and will nearly double by 2030. Developments here are driven mainly by energy-efficient buildings, but energy-saving lamps — from high-pressure gas-discharge lamps to LEDs — are also in demand. Measures to boost energy efficiency in buildings and households also pay off in Germany, where, for example, insulation of a basement ceiling in a one-family house costs approximately €2,000 and reduces heating costs by €150 a year. Combined with a subsidy from the govern- ment’s building renovation program, this investment will pay for itself in around ten years — or even sooner if oil and gas prices increase. A high-efficiency refrigerator (A++) is about €50 more expensive than a less efficient device, but will save its user €11 a year. Investment in en- ergy-saving lamps also pays off, as their higher procure- ment costs compared to conventional incandescent light bulbs are amortized after as little as 240 hours of opera- tion — which is why the EU plans to ban the use of light bulbs soon. Some 3.7 billion incandescent light bulbs are now being used in Europe, compared to only around 500 million energy-saving lamps. Sylvia Trage Amortization Periods of Energy-Efficient Solutions Amortization period for additional costs (through energy savings) Source: Own research Energy-saving lamp vs. incandescent lamp of the same brightness Conversion from incandescent to LED traffic lights Speed-controlled energy-saving motor vs. conventional motor A++ refrigerator vs. an appliance in a lower efficiency class Energy-efficiency-based building renovation through technical measures Energy-efficient solutions for rail vehicles Optimization of control system at combined cycle power plant** (p. 27) 800 hours of operation About 5 years 0.5–2 years 4–5 years 5–10 years 2–3 years About 1 year * Based on a family of 4 using a dryer 229 times per year. **Based on 50 starts per year and €80 per megawatt 34 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Life Cycle Planning | Appliances were put to work drying one wash load after another in the huge testing hall at the BSH plant. In the end, each one handled about 2,000 washes. “These endurance tests ensure that our appliances will operate error-free for ten to 15 years,” says Nitschmann. Champion Energy Saver. The result of all this development work was launched in September 2008 in the form of a dryer known as blueTherm. The appliance uses only half as much electricity as a conventional Efficiency Class B condenser dryer, and 40 percent less energy than the permitted limit for a Class A machine, which itself appeared unattainable just a few years ago. “In other words, we really are the energy-saving world champion,” says Nitschmann. That’s not all. Freiburg’s Institute for Applied Ecology also found that the heat-pump dryer’s overall environmental impact is only around half that of a conventional air-vented dryer. “The dryer is in some cases even more econom- ical than a clothesline,” says Carl-Otto Gensch, who managed the institute’s study. “Contrary to popular belief, you don’t necessarily con- serve energy by hanging up the wash to dry. For instance, if you do so in a heated room, you’ll use more energy than the heat-pump dryer consumes.” Although at around €1,000, blueTherm is more expensive than a conventional dryer, the investment pays off. According to the institute, blueTherm consumes 1.9 kWh per load, or 10 percent less than was originally planned. A nor- mal air-vented dryer needs 4.1 kilowatt-hours for one load — so assuming average use and German electricity prices, blueTherm will cost €18 per year, while a conventional air-vented dryer will cost approximately €50. tively affects heat transfer,” says Nitschmann. The team rejected the conventional solution of removing lint with a filter. “The user would then have to clean, wash, and dry several filters — it’s simply too much effort,” says Nitschmann. In addition, tests conducted at BSH labs showed the energy efficiency of a so-called A- Dryer falls to the level of a less efficient C or D- Dryer if the filters aren’t regularly cleaned. En- gineers therefore came up with a completely new solution: a type of shower for the con- denser. Here, the condensate is pumped into a container on top of the dryer and then pumped out again four times per drying cycle, rushing over the condenser like a waterfall, and thus washing away the lint. “Energy consumption here is consistently low over the dryer’s entire service life — and the customer doesn’t have to do anything,” says Nitschmann. While all these technical questions were be- ing addressed and prototypes were being im- proved under various test conditions in the labs, Nitschmann began considering which production lines could accommodate the new dryers, which tools and machines should be used, and whether suppliers would be able to provide enough compressors in time to meet pre-series production. Despite these pressures, everything went according to plan. The pre-series machines Condensate washes away lint, which reduces energy consumption, and eliminates the need for a filter. Source: UN 2005 Distribution of Impact over Appliance Life Cycle Production (Consumption of raw materials, energy, and water) Distribution (Energy consumption for merchandise transport) Use (Consumption of water, energy, and chemicals) * Depending on product and use Disposal (Consumption of raw materials, energy, and water) Raw materials (Non-ferrous metals, steel, plastics, glass, other) 90-95%* of appliance’s total environmental impact < 0.5% < 0.5% 4–9% World record: The blueTherm dryer uses only half as much electricity as a conventional dryer. And operating costs are expected to be re- duced even further in the future. “We’re contin- ually working to enhance efficiency,” Nitschmann reports. “There’s definitely poten- tial for improvement.” For example, use of al- ternative coolants and improved drive motors for the cooling cycle could save a few kilowatt- hours. Consumers, in any case, need no further convincing. BSH marketing experts had ex- pected to sell 10,000 units in blueTherm’s first three months on the market — but the com- pany ended up selling 50,000 instead. Ute Kehse BlueTherm dryer compared to efficiency class “B” dryer* (p. 32) About 3.9 years 36 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Life Cycle Planning | Financing E mission regulations are becoming more de- manding in the U.S., where the Environ- mental Protection Agency (EPA) intends to dra- matically reduce emissions of nitrogen oxide and particulates from engines in heavy-duty commercial vehicles such as buses and trucks. California, which has been particularly hard-hit by air pollution, has stipulated that carbon dioxide emissions must be cut by 30 percent by 2020. The state is now being backed in these efforts by President Barack Obama, who an- nounced that the federal government intends to provide funding for fuel-efficient vehicles and introduce more stringent CO 2 limits. These goals are ambitious for heavy vehi- cles like trucks and buses, given their high fuel requirement and intense stop-and-go drive cy- cles. ISE Corporation, a young American com- pany, is doing its part by providing environ- mentally-friendly hybrid technology for such vehicles. ISE’s mature products and good mar- ket prospects have also impressed managers from Siemens Venture Capital (SVC). As a re- sult, Siemens investment specialists joined four other venture capital firms last November in in- vesting a total of $17.5 million in ISE, which was established in 1995. The investment is in- tended above all to help ISE further develop its products and sales network. Decoupled Engine. ISE, which employs 136 people, has enjoyed Siemens’ support in its de- velopment work for years and uses Siemens electric motors and converters in its drives. The company offers a hybrid system in which elec- trical components and energy sources can be modularly exchanged depending on the appli- cation. “ISE’s series hybrid drive system is tech- nically superior to conventional parallel hybrid systems,” says Gerd Götte, a managing partner Around 225 buses outfitted with ISE series hybrid drives are already in use. An electric motor drives the axles, and a small combustion engine charges the energy storage system. Clean Investment With its environmentally-friendly hybrid drive systems for heavy-duty commercial vehicles, ISE Corporation, a young, California-based company, is targeting a rapidly growing market. Siemens Venture Capital (SVC) recently invested in this long-standing Siemens partner. Growth prospects for efficient, low-emis- sion hybrid technology are good. “The hybrid bus market alone can be expected to grow by 50 percent or more in coming years,” says Götte. “And it’s not just the U.S.; we’re seeing an increasing interest in hybrid technology in Europe and parts of Asia as well.” ISE is set to profit greatly from these developments. The company’s sales have in fact been growing at an average annual rate of 141 percent since 2006. With ISE’s order books well-filled at pres- ent, this trend is likely to continue — despite the currently difficult economic situation. Sales of gasoline hybrid vehicles in particular are ex- pected to increase rapidly in the near future, because they meet the tighter limits on nitro- gen oxide and particulate emissions that are al- ready in effect in smog-plagued southern Cali- fornia — and which will become law throughout the U.S. in 2010. The outstanding environmental compatibil- ity of ISE drive systems is also important to SVC. “Environmentally-oriented investments are a top priority for us,” reports Götte. “That’s because the clean-tech sector offers Siemens opportunities for major growth. Siemens gen- erated sales of €19 billion with its environmen- tal portfolio in 2008 — and that corresponds to around 25 percent of the Group’s total sales.” Accordingly, some 25 percent of SVC’s total venture capital volume of €800 million is cur- rently invested in clean-tech innovations such as ISE’s hybrid drives — and this percentage is increasing. SVC believes its clean-tech invest- ment volume will continue to grow despite the current economic crisis. This is because the sector benefits from a unique demand profile: the urgent need to solve infrastructure prob- lems worldwide in a rapid, environmentally-re- sponsible manner.Anette Freise at SVC, and a member of ISE’s supervisory board. The great advantage of ISE’s technology is that the combustion engine it uses is smaller than those in conventional, heavy-duty com- mercial vehicle drive systems. That’s because the engine isn’t connected to the drive shaft and is only used to provide power to the energy storage system or electric motor that propels the vehicle. That’s why it always operates in the most optimal, efficient manner possible, which means low CO 2 emissions. The ISE system also ensures that the energy storage system is charged when the vehicle is braked. This “brake energy recovery” and the use of high-performance energy storage sys- tems like double-layered ultracapacitors — or “ultracaps” (ISE’s Ultra-E 500) — enables the system to deliver brief power spurts for acceler- drive systems can be offered with a choice of either a diesel engine, a gasoline engine, or a fuel cell system. “ISE has the broadest product range in a dynamically growing market,” says Götte. As a result, ISE ideally meets the expec- tations SVC has of companies it invests in. “An investment such as this should provide Siemens with access to new technologies, while at the same time generating a good re- turn,” says Götte. Fuel Cell Bus. Approximately 225 buses equipped with the ISE hybrid system are al- ready on the road. Customers include 19 trans- portation agencies, among them Transport for London, which is planning to purchase at least eight hydrogen fuel cell buses by 2010. At the heart of ISE’s successful technology is the com- The hybrid bus market can be expected to grow by 50 percent or more in coming years. ation or inclines, without requiring the com- bustion engine to provide additional energy. “ISE has important expertise in energy storage and energy management,” says Götte. The combustion engine in a conventional parallel hybrid operates less continuously than in ISE’s series hybrid. That’s because the engine has to cover increased energy demands by op- erating at a higher power level to immediately supply extra power to the vehicle drive, along- side the electric motor. This increases fuel con- sumption and emissions when parallel hybrids are used in heavy vehicles like buses, which are often driven in stop-and-go traffic. Another advantage of the ISE technology is that the company’s series-produced hybrid pany’s adaptable control software, which regu- lates the finely-tuned interaction between the combustion engine, the generator, the energy storage system, and the electric motor. ISE’s proprietary control software is used with its diesel hybrid drive systems, gasoline hybrids, and fuel cell variants. The software and the Ultra E-500 Energy Storage System are critical contributors to ISE’s high energy efficiency. “The control software is what enables us to obtain the maximum yield from brake energy recovery, and it also allows for automatic cutoff of the combustion engine whenever a vehicle comes to a stop or reduces its power demand,” explains Kevin Stone, ISE Director of Engineering Applications. In Brief Companies are taking an ever-closer look at the life cycle of their products. A product’s en- vironmental footprint can be determined us- ing life cycle assessments, which measure all of the environmental loads associated with its production. Such analyses are often a pre- requisite for participating in tenders. Osram has studied the life cycles of various lamps from production to disposal. The result: The life cycle assessment is largely deter- mined by energy consumption during their operation, with only a small fraction of con- sumption attributable to lamp production. The key to making lamps more environmen- tally friendly is thus making them more en- ergy-efficient. (p. 16) Siemens has for the first time prepared a life cycle assessment for a new pig iron pro- duction process. The assessment shows the Corex/Finex technology to be substantially more environmentally friendly than conven- tional methods: Not only are pollutant emis- sions significantly lower, but toxin levels in the wastewater are lower as well. (p. 20) Today’s locomotives should consume little energy and emit few pollutants — not just in operation but also during production and eventual recycling. Siemens uses life cycle as- sessments to identify the most environmen- tally compatible design. (p. 24) Many power plants have been in operation for at least 30 years and no longer meet the latest technological standards. Modernization measures offered by Siemens, such as over- hauling the instrumentation and control sys- tem or replacing a complete turbine, can help to make the plants more efficient and reduce costs and CO 2 emissions. (p. 27) An internal guideline stipulates that appli- ances made by Bosch Siemens Hausgeräte must have a minimal impact on the environ- ment. The new blueTherm dryer consumes only half as much electricity as a conventional dryer. The blueTherm is thus not only the world’s most energy-efficient dryer, it’s also easy on the wallet. (p. 32) PEOPLE: Life Cycle Assessments for Lamps: Christian Merz, Osram firstname.lastname@example.org Holistic Assessments: Frank Walachowicz, CT email@example.com Wolfgang Grill, Siemens VAI firstname.lastname@example.org Life Cycle Assessments of Trains: Martin Leitel, Mobility email@example.com Dr. Walter Struckl, Mobility firstname.lastname@example.org Power Plant Modernization: Ralf Hendricks, Energy email@example.com Dr. Norbert Henkel, Energy firstname.lastname@example.org Anastassios Dimitriadis, Energy email@example.com Siemens Production System Dr. Bernd Müssig, CSP firstname.lastname@example.org The World’s Most Efficient Dryer: Dr. Arno Ruminy, BSH email@example.com Kai Nitschmann, BSH firstname.lastname@example.org Fridolin Weindl, BSH email@example.com Financing Green Technolgies: Gerd Götte, SVC firstname.lastname@example.org LINKS: Institute for Applied Ecology: www.oeko.de EPEA Internationale Umweltforschung GmbH: www.epea.com Website Prof. Michael Braungart: www.braungart.com ISE Corporation: www.isecorp.com EPA — U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: www.epa.gov American Solar Energy Society: www.ases.org Technical University of Denmark, Dept. of Management Engineering: www.man.dtu.dk Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 37 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 39 Fresh Oil from Old Wells Oil deposits need to be regularly cleaned to keep them viable. A promising new process developed by Siemens in Russia and oil company Rosneft uses a special foam that cleans oil wells more efficiently, ensuring significantly higher oil throughput. 38 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 I t’s a well-known fact that crude oil can’t be pumped out of the ground until a well goes dry. The amount of oil that can be extracted from a well depends on the nature of the de- posit and the properties of the oil that lies within it. The average recovery factor world- wide today is between 35 and 40 percent of a total deposit. And only around ten percent of the petroleum is initially channeled by natural pressure into boreholes, which can extend to depths of between three and six kilometers. From there it is pumped to the surface for fur- ther processing. Once the natural pressure in a deposit be- gins to abate, oil companies need to get cre- ative. One method they use is to pump water or gas into the ground in order to increase reservoir pressure. The artificial pressure dis- Research Cooperation | Oil Well Efficiency places the oil and forces it into the borehole. Use of this technique often raises the rate of extraction by 20 percent, or by 30 percent at most. Another option is to pump in steam. This in- creases reservoir pressure and lowers the oil’s viscosity, which allows it to flow more easily into the borehole. Despite their varying de- grees of effectiveness, these methods have the same drawback: They require sophisticated technology that is also very costly in relation to the amount of oil it frees up for pumping. That’s why it used to be a very common practice to close a well when it showed signs of exhaustion, and then to move on to a new oil field. Today, however, a growing number of oil drilling companies are taking another look at extracting more crude from older deposits — not least because of the anticipated high price for crude oil over the long term. A recent study conducted by the U.S. De- partment of Energy found that “mature” de- posits in the West contain up to 200 billion bar- rels of oil (one barrel = 159 liters), and that at least 89 billion barrels of this oil could be ex- tracted in subsequent operations using the methods described above. This figure can also be expected to increase as extraction tech- niques improve. One man who is working on refining such extraction techniques is Russian physicist Dr. Andrey Bartenev, the director of the Power En- gineering and Energy Resources department at Siemens Corporate Technology (CT) in Moscow. A key area that Bartenev’s team is fo- cusing on is the modernization of old oil- drilling facilities in Russia. Here, the team has succeeded in gaining the state-run oil company Rosneft as a research cooperation partner. Ros- neft, Russia’s leading oil producer, extracts about 110 million metric tons of oil annually and has a workforce of 75,000 people. Acidic Foam. Siemens engineers Dr. Vitaly Malinin and Dr. Stepan Polikhov, who work in Bartenev’s department, have been specializing in oil-deposit cleaning techniques. Together with RN-Ufanipineft — a research institute op- erated by Rosneft in the city of Ufa near the Ural mountains — they have developed an effi- cient, cost-effective method for increasing the oil-flow rate in the near–borehole zone of an oil reservoir. The technique uses a foam con- sisting of water, hydrochloric acid, and other chemicals. The method is based on a long-applied tech- nique for cleaning oil wells. It involves use of an acid solution to dissolve impurities, such as calcium, gypsum, and barium sulfates, which are found in oil-bearing sediments and would otherwise block the flow of oil into the bore- While researching the process of multi- phase filtration, specialists from Siemens Cor- porate Technology found a way to ensure that the solution gets to precisely where it should be. “This foam that’s pumped into the bore hole in the first step seals off most of those ar- eas of the underground reservoir that don’t need to be cleaned, but which nevertheless soak up large amounts of the solution,” said Bartenev after extensive computer simulations. After just five months of work, and with the help of computer systems from Siemens CT Russia, research was completed in February 2008. As Bartenev explains, the results not only provide a solution to flow-process prob- lems; the numerical calculations also were sup- plemented by development of an analytical model that gives researchers a better under- standing of technological aspects of the clean- ing process. Rosneft has been using the results since the spring of 2008. “The new solution has provided us with deeper insight into how to lower the permeability of the highly porous sediment segments, and into how the acid mixture reaches exactly those areas where confirmed, however, that the new model does result in a significant increase of oil production compared to conventional chemical cleaning methods. After monitoring 27 wells, the researchers determined that conventional acid cleaning re- sulted in an average increase of only 8.6 metric tons in the daily flow, while the foam-plus-acid technique boosted it by an average of around 17 metric tons. In addition, the sealing effect of the foam method means that it requires the use of fewer chemicals. This not only yields savings in time and money; it also helps to pro- tect the environment. More Projects Planned. Because CT re- searchers were able to benefit from the practi- cal experience of Rosneft’s staff, as well as from the company’s extensive data, “we suc- ceeded in obtaining valuable new knowledge in the field of foam-acid treatment. This al- lowed us to clearly demonstrate our capabili- ties, which will serve as an excellent founda- tion for future business relations with Rosneft,” says Bartenev. “In fact, we have already begun hole. The reservoir is first flooded with the so- lution, which is then pumped out and the af- fected rock is washed with water. Without this treatment, which is normally carried out once every two to five years, the product extracted from roughly one million boreholes, which yield 30 billion barrels annually worldwide, would be around 30 percent less. Still, the cleaning method’s effectiveness hasn’t entirely measured up to expectations so far. “When you use an acid solution alone to clean the reser- voir rock of an oil deposit, you often find a large portion of the chemicals don’t necessarily get into the places you want them to be in or- der to eliminate the blockages,” says Bartenev. That’s because when the solution flows into the borehole, part of it disappears into layers of sediment where it just isn’t needed. blockages need to be eliminated. Then the oil flows more easily to the pump,” Bartenev re- ports. In order to be able to investigate the effect of the acid-foam solution, Bartenev’s team ob- tained extensive data from Rosneft on bore- hole depths, permeability, pressure ratios, and flow rates, which the state-run company had systematically gathered and kept at its oil fields. “Thanks to all that data from the bore- holes, we were able to develop a detailed ana- lytical model for foam-acid treatment,” Bartenev says. The Foam method does not return extrac- tion levels to the average value achieved at new wells — around 700 barrels per day, with an average Rosneft well producing only about 100 barrels of oil per well — but It has been talks with the aim of intensifying our coopera- tion on efforts to substantially improve equip- ment used in oil and gas industry automation systems.” Another area of activity that the partners are looking into is extraction of oil from oil shale, for which a feasibility study is already under way. Rosneft is also optimistic about the success of the partnership. “The work we ac- complished together was very stimulating for both sides,” says Vladimir Savichev, head of Production, Development, and Research at the research center in Ufa. “We have been able to exchange concrete, specialized knowledge while combining the strengths of Siemens CT Russia and RN-Ufanipineft. That has shown us how we should be moving forward in the fu- ture.” Thomas Veser A foam-based process developed under the leadership of Andrey Bartenev (right) and Rosneft Oil increases oil well flow, and therefore the effectiveness of production sites. 45 Products that Don’t Lie Thanks to new algorithms and reductions in power require- ments, radio frequency ID chips track sterile pads in the operating room, make transfusions safer, and help to prevent product piracy. 48 No More Mr. Nice Guy According to crime statistics, banking transactions are anything but safe. New technologies for online banking and ATMs will make life tougher for criminals. 50 Code of Silence The IT industry is discovering quantum physics. Examples in- clude a quantum computer soon expected to achieve a previously unheard-of level of computational power, and a quantum cryptogra- phy chip that encrypts data with absolute security. Pages 51, 52 57 Driving out the Crooks The digital camera is a real jack of all trades. In addition to protect- ing against theft and vandalism in parking lots, when used with a fire alarm it can identify and report fires. Pages 57, 64 60 Indefatigable Guardians Thanks to an innovative remote maintenance concept, computer viruses are under fire in hospitals. Live bacteria are also heading for trouble as Siemens develops promising new methods of early identification. Pages 60, 62 Highlights 2025 In the ice of the Svalbard archipelago, re- searchers of the ReLife Institute have discov- ered organisms millions of years old based on previously unknown genes, which could revolutionize the biotechnology industry. Competitors are alarmed. Biologist Magnus Caspersen and his brother, IT specialist Ole, have been sent to look for a way to get into the research center — or at least to get their hands on the research results. 40 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 41 Svalbard, 2025. On this archipelago north of the Arctic Circle, scientists at a research station owned by ReLife are studying unknown micro-organisms frozen in the perma- frost millions of years ago. But are they safe from spies? Cold Comfort T he mountain has a huge underground facil- ity inside it, Magnus.” Ole is surprised when, after several laborious attempts with his thick gloves, he finally succeeds in unrolling an e-paper display with a cross-sectional view of a gigantic laboratory. He holds it up against the mountain range. An IT security expert, Ole knew, of course, that his native Svalbard is de- scribed as the “largest laboratory in the world” for arctic research. But he had no idea there was such a large research station here. “Impres- sive, isn’t it?” replies his brother, biologist Mag- nus Caspersen. “Among other things,” he adds, “this station conducts research on algae that used to grow here when there were still sub- tropical temperatures, before they were frozen D i g i t a l W a t c h m e n | Scenario 2025 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 43 Counterfeit products cause financial damage that adds up to billions every year. Customs agents are largely powerless and reduced to simply destroying the counterfeits they do find. A total of 6,284,661 crimes were reported in Germany in 2007; in the U.S. the number was 11,260,000. Obviously it takes more than just the police to prevent such crimes, and cries for preventive measures go hand-in-hand with rising crime rates. One glance at figures for Se- curity 2008, the world’s largest security trade show, which takes place in Essen, Germany, confirms this trend. The number of visitors in attendance doubled from the previous year, and the 1,100 exhibitors also set a new record. Among the fair’s highlights were new video monitoring capabilities — including solutions provided by Siemens (p. 57) — and the latest generation of fire alarms, which literally “sniff out” invisible and toxic carbon monoxide. Man- ufacturers also presented innovative fire extin- guishing systems, such as the Sinorix H 2 O Gas from Siemens, which features a special nitro- gen-water mixture (p. 64). The latest financial figures confirm that the industry is booming, with worldwide growth of about ten percent. And the engine that is driv- ing this growth will surely continue to hum along (p. 58), particularly in sectors with rising crime rates such as information technology (IT), since life without a computer and the In- ternet is now unimaginable. Criminals at Work. The Internet is already the marketplace of the future. Experts estimate that online sales in Germany alone will rise to 694 billion euros by 2009; in 2005 the figure was 321 billion euros. The number of online customers is growing too. According to the German Federal Statisti- cal Office (Destatis), 27 million Germans made Internet purchases in 2007, thus putting their personal data into circulation online. This represents a potential feast for scam- mers, reports Dr. Udo Helmbrecht, President of the German Federal Office for Information Se- curity (BSI) in Bonn. “Internet crime has be- come a flourishing, globally organized under- ground economy,” he says. “While computer hackers use Trojan horses to gain unauthorized access to other people’s computers, where they steal and sell private data such as account numbers and PINs, scammers make targeted use of this data to get their hands on money.” And lots of it, in fact. According to BitKom, an IT trade association, 4,100 such cases of theft, with damages totaling 19 million euros, were reported in Germany in 2007 alone, and the German Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) estimates that the number of unreported cases is actually much higher than that. The corporate world also has suffered enor- mous damage. A survey conducted by Corpo- rate Trust, a consulting firm, found that roughly 20 percent of German companies sur- veyed had been victims of at least one case of espionage in recent years, cases in which confi- dential company information was the primary target. And the situation is not any better abroad. The Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3), a U.S. consumer protection agency, re- ported a record-breaking $240 million in dam- ages in the U.S. alone in 2007 — an increase of 20 percent from the previous year’s figure. BSI President Helmbrecht explains, how- ever, that just a few precautions are needed in order to substantially limit damage. “Many users underestimate the danger on the Inter- net,” he says. “It’s as if they were running around with an open wallet full of money while shopping from their livingrooms.” He adds that Internet users have to be aware of potential risks at all times and take appropriate security measures. “That begins with a healthy distrust of dubious e-mails and installation of security solutions,” he says. Such solutions can include biometric sys- tems external to the PC, such as a credit card- sized Internet ID card bearing the user’s finger- | Trends One Step Ahead Online scammers are defrauding us of huge sums while dangerous counterfeit products flood markets. The security sector is working overtime on solutions that include RFID and quantum cryptography chips. O ne of the most spectacular criminal cases in recent years began back in May 1988 in Germany. At that time, Arno Funke, an extor- tionist, threatened to detonate bombs in a number of department stores and demanded a hefty sum of money, throwing not only depart- ment store owners but also the police into a state of chaos. Funke was made famous by the media as “Dagobert” (the German name for Walt Disney’s Scrooge McDuck character was used as a code name during the negotiations). He used a sur- prising number of intricate mechanical devices, including remote-controlled vehicles with false bottoms and a mini submarine where money was to be placed — and repeatedly managed to evade the police. Funke was finally captured in April 1994, af- ter six years and a total of 30 attempts to hand over the money. Media coverage of the case took on the character of a road movie, with the ingenious criminal making fools of the police time and again. The public eagerly followed the story, which provided a picture of criminality that was entertaining, and thus entirely inaccurate. Crime, after all, was and remains omnipresent — and it’s anything but amusing. Digital Watchmen | Scenario 2025 for millions of years. And the scientists are bringing them back to life, as the name ReLife suggests. In the revitalized organisms, these re- searchers have discovered previously unknown genes that could revolutionize the entire biotechnology industry — and even be useful for clean power generation. Now you see why our client wants to know at all costs whether it’s possible to obtain the research results and, if so, how.” While Ole’s gaze scans the sketch in front of him, Magnus signals with a hand gesture to the huskies, commanding the dogs to be ab- solutely quiet. “Let’s start figuring out how to gain access. Is there any way we can get in- side?” he asks. Ole can’t help but laugh faintly in reply. “Not very likely,” he answers. “As you can see, every inch of the outer area is carefully monitored with video cameras. They register not only anything that is approaching but also what the object is — whether a bird, a polar bear, or a person. And if it’s the latter, you can be sure they’ll sound an alarm.” Magnus stares raptly at the reclining dogs for a moment and then tramps over to Ole to take a closer look at the layout of the station. “Even if we could make our way into the mountain,” Ole contin- ues, “we’d reach a dead end in front of every laboratory door, according to this map. There are hand scanners that use infrared technology to examine the structure of hands, down to the smallest wrinkles, including veins, and then au- tomatically compare the structures with a data- base — and that in combination with biometric voice identification. It’s going to be impossible to crack all that.” His brother Magnus is slowly running out of patience. “But we have to get in there some- how,” he insists. He sneezes. “Well, your cold is- n’t going to make it easier,” says Ole, trying to see the humor in their predicament. “There is also a biochip detector in front of every labora- tory door. In just a few seconds it tests your breath for the presence of DNA components of certain bacteria, and other organisms that shouldn’t be allowed in the labs.” “That re- minds me,” says Magnus, wiping off the fogged-up e-paper. “Pretty soon we won’t be able to see anything at all anymore thanks to our breath. If we can’t get in physically,” he ponders, “then maybe virtually — for example with a specially programmed Trojan horse that we can use to spy on the computers and…” “Not a chance,” interrupts Ole without look- ing up from the map. “A completely new anti- virus program provides security for their IT sys- tem. It’s coordinated from the mainland headquarters with a quantum computer that can simulate all imaginable virus combinations and identify them during an attack.” Ole looks thoughtfully at the northern lights. “But the station here and the headquar- ters have to communicate with each other somehow. With a high-performance computer, we could crack the encryption and eavesdrop on the data traffic,” he points out. But Magnus dismisses this too. “Forget it,” he says. “Even a biologist like me can see from the e-paper that the satellite connection is using a quantum- cryptographic encryption system. And that means it’s not physically possible to crack the data flows — they’d notice any attempt at eavesdropping.” Ole is growing irritated. “Then it looks like there’s just no way for us to get the results. If that’s the case, our client says that we should then examine how we can manage to at least put a stop to the ReLife research.” His biologist brother considers for a long moment. “We could use a drone to drop gas cartridges near the air shafts. That would destroy the highly sensitive micro-organisms.” “That won’t work,” says Ole. “I can see from the diagram that the whole complex, including the ventilation sys- tem, has fire alarms installed, equipped with gas sensors that our informant says are incredi- bly precise. Each of these devices can sniff out dangerous gases in the air and sound the alarm if there are any irregularities. Apparently, the same thing applies to the containers holding the organisms, in the storage rooms. Each of them has a wireless sensor chip that not only measures ambient data and the temperature but also uses an automated system to ensure the ideal air composition — which is different for each species of organism and storage chamber. As soon as these tiny sensors detect even the slightest anomaly, they seal off the air intake and mix their own air by means of re- serve tanks.” “Well, I guess that settles it then,” says Mag- nus wearily. He steps onto the dog sled and snaps his fingers. The dogs leap up instantly and jostle into formation. “What’s settled?” asks Ole. “The station is an impregnable fortress. What’s your opinion?” Ole nods and grins, plac- ing a checkmark on the e-paper and putting it away. “Inspection passed,” he says and climbs onto the sled as well. “ReLife — your client and my employer — is going to be very pleased, in- deed,” says Magnus. “I don’t think there is any- one who would stand a chance of infiltrating this place. Let’s write the report and call it a day. You’ll stay for dinner I hope, brother? Emma is making her famous reindeer roast tonight.” “I wouldn’t consider missing out on a chance to experience the culinary skills of my sister-in-law,” says Ole with a hearty laugh, giv- ing the huskies a shout that sets them in mo- tion: “Ready — let’s go!” Sebastian Webel 42 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 45 | RFID Chips Products that Don’t Lie Wireless identification tags made their first appearance over 40 years ago as bulky antitheft devices in warehouses. Today, thanks to advanced algorithms, reductions in chip power requirements, and other improvements, their applications are far more diverse. Siemens’ engineering laboratories are developing counterfeit-proof radio chips that will prevent product piracy, track sterile pads in the operating room, and make transfusions safer by ensuring that blood has been consistently cooled. RFID chips (bottom, left) have many uses — whether it’s in the operating room to count and track abdom- inal pads (large photo), to monitor banked blood, or to ensure that products are not counterfeit. F rom watches, jewelry and clothing to water faucets and brake disks —virtually no product is safe from counterfeiters. Product piracy is a booming business. Dr. Michael Braun, Project Manager for RFID Security Sys- tems at Siemens Corporate Technology in Mu- nich, Germany, estimates that the worldwide economic damage due to counterfeit products amounts to at least €56 billion annually. And he emphasizes that this figure is based on very conservative calculations. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in Brussels estimates the figure to be five times higher. Product piracy therefore is a major threat to manufacturers, who face the prospect of immense losses in sales. It is there- fore not surprising that they want to prevent such nefarious activities and are striving to pro- tect their products against counterfeiting as ef- fectively as possible — in much the same way as governments protect paper money. Solu- tions involve the identification of products with color-changing inks, reflective pigments, wa- termarks, holograms, and bar codes. The ultimate identification technology uses electronic tags, known as RFID chips (Radio Fre- ticity of a product offline at any point,” says Braun. The chip encodes a query from a reader device with its own private key. The receiver is then able to verify the correctness of the an- swer to this query by means of the matching public key. The prototype device functions perfectly. But Braun sees areas that still need improve- ment before the system can be brought to market. His team is working closely with cus- tomers and semiconductor manufacturers to start several pilot projects. The projects are designed to determine which additional func- tionalities over and above pure authentication may be needed for a range of different user scenarios. The results of this work will support the successful introduction of a mass-market product. But even as RFID chips gradually enter the mainstream, they certainly will not offer a uni- versal solution to the plague of counterfeit products. Experts fully expect the neck-and- neck race between criminals and security tech- nology to continue in the years ahead. It’s a cat-and-mouse game — one in which the bad guys certainly are inventive. But unlike Dagob- ert, most will never experience even a moment of public sympathy. Sebastian Webel 44 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 prints (p. 48). With this technology, for in- stance, authentication data never comes in contact with the PC, putting it out of reach of anyone trying to spy — at least for now. Over the long term, however, it could prove difficult to find a tool for fighting Internet crim- inality, since ongoing technological develop- ment benefits not only the security industry, but also the scammers. Take, for instance, the quantum computer, which uses quantum physics to achieve unparalleled computing per- formance (p. 54). The BSI considers this kind of computer, which is still in the development When Counterfeits Kill. When it comes to counterfeit products, most companies can only dream of achieving victory over criminals. In product categories ranging from brand-name jeans to luxury watches to MP3 players, trade in counterfeit products causes approximately 30 billion euros worth of damage each year in Germany alone, according to the Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce. And the EU Commission estimates that losses suffered worldwide as a result of product coun- terfeiting are somewhere between 200 and 300 billion euros. along the supply chain has to support this in- frastructure and be trustworthy. What’s more, it wouldn’t take a lot of effort to copy the code and print it on a counterfeit. No systems are available that can tell the difference.” Copy protection is Braun’s area of expertise. His team recently developed a solution that could deliver the blow to the counterfeiters that is so eagerly anticipated by industry: a copy-protected RFID chip based on public key cryptography, allowing reliable verification of its authenticity (p. 45). “Our radio chip makes it possible for the first time to verify the authen- stage, to be one of the greatest challenges fac- ing the entire IT security industry. In Helm- brecht’s opinion, as soon as such a computa- tional powerhouse hits the market, Internet criminals will have no problem cracking today’s standard method for encrypting data. “As the central IT security services provider to the Ger- man federal government, the BSI must be able to anticipate future scenarios such as the quan- tum computer — and to work with research in- stitutions on the development of solutions that can thwart this previously unimaginable level of computing power,” says Helmbrecht. One such defense mechanism could be the quantum cryptography chip developed by the Vienna-based Austrian Research Center in co- operation with Graz Technical University and Siemens (p. 50). This chip protects data by gen- erating a random sequence of numbers from light particles — also known as photons. Be- cause quantum mechanical processes alter the photons, any attempt at tapping is recognized immediately and the chip simply generates a new key. Here, the laws of physics themselves make it impossible for anyone to crack an en- crypted message. If it ever goes into produc- tion, the chip would be a tremendous benefit to security technology. Even worse, counterfeit products are be- coming a health hazard in the pharmaceutical sector. In a best case scenario, medications contain powdered milk or starch instead of an active substance. But in the worst case, the wrong dose or even the wrong active sub- stance is used. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that ten percent of the Euro- pean market was affected by these “risk cock- tails” in 2007. The corresponding figure during this same period was 20 percent in the former Soviet states, and it has reached 30 percent in parts of Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The European Union Commission is well aware of the issue. In late 2008, it published a proposal for combating pharmaceutical piracy. One suggestion calls for special 2D bar codes on packaging to be scanned by the manufac- turer and stored in a central database. The data can then be compared online to verify its au- thenticity as the product moves through sales chains. “But such bar codes offer only limited pro- tection,” cautions Dr. Michael Braun of Siemens Corporate Technology in Munich. “Everyone Product authenticity can be verified using copy-protected RFID chips (left) and a reader. With an Internet ID, sensitive data never finds its way online (right). Digital Watchmen | Trends 46 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 quency Identification), which make counter- feiting particularly difficult. RFID operation is based on a secret key that is known both to the chip and to the reader. This approach is there- fore referred to as a symmetrical method. Such chips may for instance store encoded product data or a serial number. The reader receives this information by a radio signal and uses the same key to decode the contents. However, as RFID expert Michael Braun is quick to emphasize, anyone who manages to steal the secret key could hack into this sym- metrical security system. “At Siemens we have therefore chosen what’s known as the asym- metrical approach, which is based on the pub- ing optimized algorithms. Instead of a pro- grammable processor, they use fixed, nonpro- grammable circuit elements. This substantially reduces the energy consumption and size of the chip, which are important cost factors. Braun therefore believes this new technology has a great chance of establishing itself in the market for authenticity verification. And there’s another advantage. In addition to providing maximum security, the technology costs only around one-tenth as much as com- parable smart card technology. In addition, it can, for instance, be used throughout the en- tire value chain from supplier to customer for authenticity testing without a database link. basket by the end the operation. If the two numbers agree, it’s clear that no pad was left behind in the patient. “But despite this safety procedure, in rare cases a pad does get left be- hind,” admits chief surgeon Prof. Hubertus Feußner, who adds that this happens in roughly one out of every 5,000 (mostly ab- dominal) operations, and can result in a life- threatening infection. Although aluminum strips have been wo- ven into sterile pads and are visible in x-ray im- ages, forgotten pads may be difficult to see in post-op medical images depending on their po- sition. In 2007 Siemens therefore launched a three-year program in cooperation with Intel, lic key concept, to develop a counterfeit-resist- ant system,” he says. In this system the reader operates with a commonly accessible public key, which is consequently of no interest to hackers. The RFID tag, on the other hand, con- tains a private, secret key the chip uses to en- code a test inquiry of the reader. This asymmet- rical method is presently used, for example, to encode e-mails and digital signatures. To ensure that the private key isn’t copied and transferred to another chip, Siemens re- searchers have additionally developed an algo- rithm that interacts with so-called elliptical curves. “The RFID tag gives a different response to each inquiry by the reader. This means that criminals can only clone obsolete information that is of no use in attacking a security system,” explains Braun. But until recently, such methods could not be applied to RFID chips, which have limited computing power. Now, however, Siemens re- searchers have solved this problem by develop- Researchers have already developed a proto- type and presented it at the CeBIT 2009 com- puter fair. RFIDs in the O.R.In the surgery suite of the Klinikum Rechts der Isar, a major medical cen- ter in Munich, a patient lies on an operating Fujitsu Siemens and the Klinikum Rechts der Isar medical center to develop an RFID system that detects and counts radio chips sewed into the sterile abdominal pads. The system makes it possible to count the number of pads on the preparation tray, in the patient, and in the waste bin. When the operation is completed, RFID chips equipped with temperature sensors can monitor the entire cooling chain of banked blood. table with his abdominal cavity open for treat- ment. The surgeons use sterile pads to stop any bleeding. One pad after another disappears into the fissures and spaces between the or- gans, only to be removed and discarded soon afterward. A surgical nurse counts the number of pads she has handed to the surgeons, as well as the number that have accumulated in the waste the system displays the totals of counted pads on a monitor — and the surgical staff knows exactly where the pads have ended up. That’s the idea. “But there’s still quite a bit to be done, before the system is market-ready,” cautions Thomas Jell, Head of RFID Delivery at Siemens IT Solutions and Services. For exam- ple, development engineers intend to at least double the present wireless range of the radio Developments in RFID tag technologies are making it possible to track sterile pads in the operating room...Ensure that donated blood has been kept cool, and... How a Crypto Chip Works The secret key used in Siemens’ crypto chip employs a computational method based on so-called elliptical curves. If these formulas are visualized as an x/y-axis graph, the resulting curve resembles the cross-section of a doorknob. Initially, two points (P and Q) are defined on this curve. A straight line through these points intersects the curves at a third point R, which is reflected symmetrically to inter- sect the lower arc of the curve. This arithmetic formula is then repeated one trillion times. As a conse- quence, the new end points are always created at different locations on the elliptical curves. Final results are computed from these values. The secret of the key lies in the multiplicity of times this process is repeated. With every query that the reader poses to a digital chip, the computation starts all over again and creates a new resulting point transmitted to the reader as a response. This method has been known to mathematicians for about 30 years, but was too complicated for the computing power of small, “passive” RFID chips that lacked an integral power supply. Such chips derive the energy required for computation from the electromagnetic field of their associated reader. Considering this stringent requirement, Siemens researchers have compressed the algorithm upon which calculations are based to the point where reasonably priced, passive standard tags can use it. This is where the special know-how of crypto re- searchers comes in. For instance, RFID experts have managed to transfer some of the computational functions to the reader in order to reduce demands on the passive crypto chip. Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 47 chips from the present limit of 50 cm. That’s es- pecially important in order to allow the reader’s antenna underneath the operating table to register an RFID chip in a pad that is inside a very obese patient. The solution will be to use abdominal pads outfitted with a sewn-in antenna that is several times longer and therefore more effective than the one in the previous prototype. Another issue involves the RFID’s transmit- ting frequency. By transponding on the stan- dard high frequency of 13.56 MHz, the device could interfere with operating room medical equipment. Jell can now exclude this for Siemens products. “We’re in the process of On an elliptic curve you can easily define the n-fold product of a number with itself (the diagram symboli- cally shows an addi- tion). But to recalcu- late the factor n from the result is virtually impossible. This fact makes it possible to develop an efficient encoding method that combines short key lengths with fast cod- ing times. Such a solu- tion is ideal for chip cards and mobile phones. E: y 2 =x 3 +ax+bmodp with a=2 b=98041560852373919804497702945164778239981033357 p=1461501637330902700854603783655214859383685196123 consists of 10 146150163733090270085460620150685408864185482153 points. donor to recipient and also store additional data, such as the blood group. This is impor- tant because blood spoils rapidly when it is stored without effective cooling. “The system not only records the tempera- ture of every blood bag but also closes the communications gap between donor stations,” explains Harald Speletz, who heads the RFID Solutions Department at Siemens Process Au- tomation in Linz, Austria. “Our solution enables complete documentation from vein to vein and substantially improves patient safety. Siemens scientists are committed to making the cooling chain of banked blood completely transparent using this new recording system,” he said. Using this new solution, medical personnel will attach an RFID chip to each blood bag as soon the blood has been donated. And that chip will stay with the blood throughout its life cycle from whole blood to blood cell concen- trate — even in the centrifuge. The electronic chip’s system, which includes a temperature sensor with a battery, is so robust that it can withstand being spun at a centrifugal force of up to 5,000 g. “This RFID system for monitoring banked blood is now sufficiently mature to enter the market,” says Speletz. So it won’t be long be- fore wireless tags help to ensure the safety of a range of medical procedures. Rolf Sterbak making our system compatible with currently- available operating room equipment,” he says. But that still leaves the fact that some med- ical devices, such as electrocoagulation sys- tems, emit high-frequency pulses that can in- terfere with RFID systems. Responding to this challenge, Siemens researchers have devel- oped reader software that simply filters out these brief interruptions Tracking Blood. Another major area in which RFID tags could save lives is in monitoring the temperature of donated blood. With this in mind, in 2008, a consortium consisting of Siemens, French blood bag manufacturer Ma- coPharma, and circuit board manufacturer Schweizer Electronic of Schramberg, Germany, clinically tested a temperature sensor-equipped RFID system in collaboration with the Medical University in Graz. The newly-developed RFID tags monitor the entire cooling chain of banked blood from Track blood products throughout their life cycle. P Q R Digital Watchmen | RFID Chips Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 49 No More Mr. Nice Guy Banks are under fire for not taking sufficient steps to ensure security. That’s not surprising, given that misuse of banking data is on the rise — in some cases leading to disastrous consequences for banks and their customers. New technologies from Siemens are set to make life a lot tougher for criminals. 48 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 O nline banking conducted from the con- venience of the customer’s home is be- coming increasingly popular. In fact, in Ger- many alone, there are more than 35 million online accounts that generate nearly 1.7 bil- lion online fund transfers per year. But the other side of the coin is that crime in the on- line realm is also on the rise — in the form of phishing scams, for example, where hackers try to gain access to bank account data by set- ting up fake web sites. According to Germany’s Federal Criminal Police Office, Internet scams in 2007 alone re- sulted in damages totaling approximately €19 million, which was 50 percent higher than the figure from 2006. Also not to be underesti- mated is the damage these scams can cause to a bank’s reputation. In an effort to combat this problem, Siemens is developing several solutions that Digital Watchmen | Banking Thanks to scanners and optical sensors, verification data for Internet identification doesn’t even need to pass through a PC.Non-contact hand vein scanners will make banking more secure — and life tougher for anyone attempting online fraud. will make banking more secure — not only on- line but also over the phone and at bank branches. “Many Internet users prefer to do their banking conveniently online, but they are nevertheless worried about the security of their personal data,” says Olaf Badstübner, who is responsible for Worldwide Banking and Insurance Security Services at Siemens IT Solu- tions and Services in Frankfurt am Main. “Our goal is therefore to offer solutions that com- bine user-friendliness with the highest security standards. The key question here always boils down to how we can securely identify our- selves via anonymous communication chan- nels such as the Internet and telephone lines.” Mini Scanners. Together with a Swiss bio- metric solutions company, Siemens now offers an Internet ID product that puts a stop to on- line scamming. The device, which is the size of a credit card, is equipped with a fingerprint scanner and six optical sensors. It requires no additional hardware or software installation, which means that it can be used with any In- ternet-enabled computer. Any user wishing to conduct a bank trans- fer initially identifies himself or herself by means of a fingerprint. This print is compared to a previously made copy of itself, which is al- ready stored on the device. The bank’s website then sends a flicker code to the user’s com- puter, and the code is registered and de- crypted by the ID card’s sensors. During this process, the user’s monitor displays six rapidly flickering fields. In addition to the transfer data already entered using the computer key- board, the flicker code contains the associated shops and services,” he says. The system is al- ready being widely utilized within Siemens, es- pecially with applications that involve external partners. In such cases, the device ensures that only authorized persons can gain access to internal Siemens data. “Because users iden- tify themselves with their fingerprint, you al- ways know that the individual in question was physically present when they logged onto the system,” Badstübner explains. “That means there’s absolutely no possibility that a third party can get in by stealing a password.” Despite the varied range of application pos- sibilities, Badstübner continues to focus on the banking sector. One reason: manipulation of ATMs is increasing dramatically. Approximately 5,000 instances of ATM fraud were recorded in Read My Hands. The new system works as follows: An infrared scanner installed in the ATM registers the vein structure in the cus- tomer’s hand. This data is then transferred to a biometric data recognition unit that compares the scan with the user’s stored information. “This type of ID provides customers with addi- tional security to supplement their PIN num- ber,” Badstübner explains. Siemens developed the technical equip- ment for data recognition and comparison, while Fujitsu supplied the infrared scanner and sensor. “Along with enhanced security, this procedure also offers the benefit of touchless operation. Unlike the fingerprint ID, the hand- vein reading unit doesn’t require the customer to touch the scanner,” says Badstübner. Voiceprint by Phone. Badstübner’s develop- ment laboratory has also come up with a third verification application, one that makes use of speech biometrics technology. Speaker recog- nition is an ideal solution for telephone bank- ing — and Siemens is now offering a system that registers the individual characteristics of a user’s voice and then uses this data as a basis for verifying the customer’s identity in all fu- ture telephone transactions. And to prevent fraud attempted by means of replaying recordings of the user’s voice, the system also generates a random number se- quence that the customer must repeat. Then the customer’s voice is compared with the stored data to ensure completely secure identi- fication. Customers who use the hand vein scanner don’t even need to touch the device in order to be identified. transaction authentication number generated by the bank (TAN). Using an integrated cryptographic key, the ID card deciphers the code and displays the in- formation on its small screen. The user can check the data to make sure it’s correct and then complete the transaction by entering the TAN. “The new ID eliminates the need for sepa- rate passwords and TAN lists,” explains Bad- stübner — and that makes the system not only easier to use but also much more secure than conventional setups. At the moment, the Internet ID device is be- ing offered exclusively to banks, but Badstüb- ner believes it could also be used for less secu- rity-critical online applications. “Whether you’re booking travel arrangements or down- loading music from the Internet — the ID has 128 different keys and could theoretically be used for a corresponding number of online Europe in 2007, but that number had climbed to more than 6,000 in just the first six months of 2008 — a staggering increase of 143 per- cent. Three out of every four such incidents in- volve what is called “skimming” — a method by which a thief gains access to bank card data “What’s more, the scanner avoids the problem that even just a little dirt or a slight cut can lead to an error in fingerprint identification, which could otherwise impede the authentica- tion process.” Hand-vein scanning can be used to identify customers doing business inside a bank Siemens is currently involved in negotia- tions with German, Spanish, and Turkish banks that are interested in using its speaker-recogni- tion technology, which could simply be added on to a bank’s existing telephone banking sys- tem. And Siemens is already successfully using the system internally to prevent the time-con- suming documentation process that had been necessary for retrieving or changing pass- words. “Now, when employees forget their pass- words, they simply call a number where their identity can be confirmed on the basis of their recorded voiceprint,” Badstübner reports. They can then reset their password quickly, easily, and securely. Secure, fast, and easy — these are exactly the qualities that apply to all three of the secu- rity solutions from Badstübner’s development department. Kirstin Schliekau by installing a mock-up card slot, equipped with a scanner and miniature camera, in the cash machine. A new system that uses hand vein scanning could put a stop to that, be- cause each individual’s vein structure is unique and can therefore be used as a means of iden- tification. branch as well, eliminating the need for them to present their IDs. Time-consuming signa- ture checks would also become a thing of the past. Several British banks are particularly in- terested in this technology and are now en- gaged in talks with Siemens about the possi- bility of obtaining the system. calibrated in a painstaking process. We’d love to turn it into an easy-to-manufacture product that costs under €10,000, but that’s going to require two years and a development partner who can make the hardware more compact. We still haven’t found that partner. Who would be your customers? Monyk:The financial sector has expressed great interest; banks could use the system for secure data communication between branches and headquarters. Public agencies, hospitals and, of course, police and the military are also interested. And the average consumer? Monyk:At some point it will generate interest among private individuals, but only after many households have fiber-optic connections. It’s easy to imagine inserting a quantum cryptog- raphy device into a computer like a USB stick. Computing power is not an issue here — any PC could handle the device. Interview by Bernd Müller. Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 51 Code of Silence No encryption code is secure — unless it’s created in keeping with the laws of quantum physics. Siemens and partners in an EU project have shown that unbreakable quantum cryptography is ready for widespread use. 50 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Digital Watchmen | Quantum Cryptography G od does not play dice with the universe,” said Albert Einstein once in criticism of quantum physics. But it was Einstein who had helped to launch the most successful physics theory of the 20th century, with a Nobel Prize- winning paper on light quanta (photons) back in 1905. Today we know that God does “play dice” in the sense that certain phenomena in quantum physics can’t be predicted; instead they become real only at the moment in which they are measured. Einstein was also wrong about something else: The peculiar entangle- ment of light particles, which he dismissed as “spooky action at a distance” in 1935, is a real phenomenon. When specially prepared twin pairs of photons are created, one photon al- ways knows the state of the other — without any delay in time and across any distance, even that of the entire universe. This unusual behavior that so irritated Ein- stein is ideally suited for data encryption. Physi- cists working in this field exploit the entangle- ment of the twin photons and the fact that their state can only be determined at the mo- ment they are measured. If such photons are sent through fiber-optic lines in order to ex- change encryption keys, anyone “listening in” can still pick up the data, but the laws of physics ensure that their eavesdropping will not go unnoticed, and that action can then be taken. This is because if one of the photons is measured by an outside party, the transmitter and receiver will immediately see this in the Christian Monyk, 43, of the Austrian Research Centers (ARC), is head of the SECOQC project, whose other partners include Graz Technical University and Siemens. In this interview, Monyk talks about applications of quantum cryptography. Affordable Quantum Cryptography How did the SECOQC project come about? Monyk:Our goal was to liberate quantum cryptography from its academic isolation and take a decisive step toward an actual applica- tion. Although commercial solutions already exist, they are only suitable for point-to-point connections. Our cryptochip, on the other hand, makes possible the creation of networks with many participants, and thus the bridging of great distances. Is your cryptochip market-ready? Monyk:It’s ready to be used and we could of- fer it to customers right now — but at €100,000 per unit, the system is still very expensive. That’s because it’s built by hand and has to be tween two parties. Because photons are lost as they pass through glass fiber lines, system range has also been limited to just a few kilo- meters. What has been missing here is a super- ordinate authority that passes the code on across several point-to-point connections and controls the quantum cryptography devices linked with the network. In October 2008 partners in an EU project known as SECOQC (Secure Communication based on Quantum Cryptography) presented the first such network at a conference in Vien- na. Consisting of seven participants, the net- work was able to pass a quantum key from node to node, and it can be expanded to in- clude any number of connections. The project partners included the University of Vienna and Siemens IT Solutions and Services Austria, with the latter providing the network infrastructure. The project was managed by Austrian Research Centers (ARC) in Vienna. Entangled Twins. The project’s cryptographic network used commercially available devices whose operation is based on different quan- tum cryptography technologies. Their effec- tiveness is limited, however. Devices that use photon phase shifts as a quantum property, for example, are susceptible to inaccurate meas- urements. That’s why the network relied for the first time on a system for generating entan- gled photons, which was developed by Anton Zeilinger, a professor at the University of Vien- before sending the particles out via two fiber- optic lines. Their oscillation direction, known as “polarization,” is initially uncertain. It’s only when a photon has been measured that it pos- sesses a specific polarization. At this point the information unit, the bit, takes on the value of either zero or one. As if it were telepathic, the second photon registers this and takes on ex- actly the same value. If a hacker attempts to eavesdrop on either one of the glass fiber lines, the transmitter and receiver (designated “Alice” and ”Bob” by cryp- tographers) notice this through a comparison of their measurements. The cryptographic de- vice then repeatedly creates new keys until the hacker (“Eve”) gives up and exits the line. The comparison of measurement data can take place on unsecured lines like the Internet or a state of the twin. They can then take measures to make the bits and bytes incomprehensible to the hacker. Although commercial quantum cryptogra- phy systems have been in use for a number of years, their success has been held back by high costs and technical limitations — more specifi- cally by the fact that they have, until recently, only allowed point-to-point connections be- na who is considered a pioneer of research into new quantum phenomena (see interview, p. 52). In fact, Zeilinger caused a sensation in the 1990s when he “beamed” specific properties from one photon to another. For his cryptography approach, Zeilinger ac- tually uses the “spooky action at a distance” that occurs between twin particles, which his team generates in a crystal by means of a laser, | Interview Detectors measure the polarization of photons generated by a laser, and a cryptochip uses these measurements to continually create new encryption codes. Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 5352 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Digital Watchmen | Quantum Cryptography | Interview Anton Zeilinger, 63, is a professor at the University of Vienna and the Austrian Academy of Sciences’ Insti- tute for Quantum Optics and Quantum Information. Considered a quantum physics pioneer, Zeilinger sparked the imagination of science fiction fans in the 1990s by teleporting pho- tons. He has also taken part in philosophical talks with the Dalai Lama on quantum physics and the nature of time and space. Among other things, his work today focuses on ap- plications for data encryp- tion systems and random number generators. Quantum physics is already a hundred years old, but it seems that its practical applications are only now becoming a reality. Zeilinger:That’s not true because all semicon- ductor technology is based on quantum physics, and lasers would also be unthinkable without it. Certain phenomena addressed by your work, such as entanglement of photons, weren’t even studied or applied until a few years ago. Why not? Zeilinger:It’s true that studies concerning photon entanglement didn’t begin to emerge until the 1970s, although Erwin Schrödinger had described the phenomenon as early as 1935, a time when Albert Einstein also was ex- amining the “spooky action at a distance,” as he referred to it. The phenomenon was then neglected for several decades because scien- tists considered it a question for philosophers rather than for physicists. I wasn’t taken seri- ously when I began looking into the question with some colleagues in the 1970s, and only about 30 people attended the first conference we held on the topic. Today, there’s a confer- ence every month attended by hundreds of re- searchers, more than I can even go to because of time constraints. So we are experiencing a revival of interest in the fundamental ques- tions of quantum physics, and several entirely new applications have been emerging since the 1990s, including quantum cryptography. What are the benefits of using quantum physics to help with data encryption? Zeilinger:It makes encryption completely se- cure because you notice immediately if some- one is trying to eavesdrop on the fiber-optic line that’s used to exchange the keys. This isn’t some kind of technological trick; it’s a funda- mental aspect of physics. In the project that we worked on with Austrian Research Centers, which Siemens was also involved in, we used entangled photons to transmit the keys. One photon always knows the state of the other, so if one is measured, say by a hacker, we can im- mediately see this in the measurement reading for the twin. We are now able to generate twin photons at a rate of ten million per second. We used around a dozen keys per second in the project with ARC, and that represents a com- pletely new dimension compared to conven- tional procedures in which keys are exchanged A Quantum Computer in Your Cell Phone on an unsecured line, and possibly used for years at a time. Are there drawbacks to your procedure? Zeilinger:Because you can’t measure the photons without destroying the entanglement, you unfortunately can’t reinforce them. Losses in the fiber-optic lines lead to a loss of pho- tons, which is why the maximum bridging dis- tance in the line has been limited so far to around 30 kilometers. During wireless trans- mission experiments between the islands of Tenerife and La Palma, however, we have achieved a distance of 144 kilometers. That’s more than enough for the purpose of secure data transfer between government offices or initially didn’t realize how many different things could be done with their inventions. But scientists seem to have a very firm idea of what can be achieved with quan- tum computers, although they understand it will take a long time to do this. Zeilinger:There’s a big race going on with quantum computers today. When a quantum computer is actually built and can function properly, it will be in a class by itself, truly un- precedented. The exceptional feature of such a computer is that it will be able to process sev- eral operations simultaneously rather than in succession, because it will exploit the quantum mechanical overlapping of atoms. (Editor’s note: see article, p. 54) What can be done with such tremendous computing power? Zeilinger:One application would be Shore’s algorithm for breaking down large prime num- bers, which is a necessary component in the process of cracking an encrypted code. This would amount to the counterpart of quantum cryptography — but it would be useful for breaking only today’s conventional codes, not those generated by quantum cryptography. Another application could involve a search for a name in an unsorted database, for example. When you use conventional algorithms here, you might end up having to search the entire database if you’re unlucky, which would mean a million computing steps for a million entries. A quantum computer with just eight quantum bits, by contrast, could do the job in less than 4,000 steps. Some of your colleagues doubt that there will ever be a quantum computer. They say that phenomena in the quantum world cannot simply be transferred to the macroscopic world. Zeilinger:I’m absolutely certain we will even- tually see quantum computers. There is no ob- stacle inherent to physics that would prevent this. According to Moore’s Law, the number of transistors that can be placed on a chip doubles every 18 months. So, you could also say that the number of electrons needed to store a bit is reduced by half every 18 months. If you project that, you’ll find that in 20 years only one atom will be required to store one bit — and with that we have the quantum computer. We have a lot of work to do, of course, because we still aren’t able to control complex quantum sys- tems. Nevertheless, it’s only a question of time until we will do this, and some day every cell phone will contain such a quantum computer. Interview by Bernd Müller. banks in a given city. We also have to be care- ful to prevent side-channel attacks, which eavesdrop on the electromagnetic signals cre- ated in the transmitter and receiver when the keys are generated in the crypto-hardware sys- tem. But we’ve already taken appropriate measures to deal with that. Are there any other applications for quan- tum physics that are ready for the market? Zeilinger:Yes — generation of random num- bers, for example, which are needed for online gambling systems, certain types of optimiza- tion algorithms, and for calculation of integrals in mathematical problems. Today such random numbers are generated with computers by set- ting a starting value for the program and then letting it run for a certain period of time. If the circumstances are the same, though, you’ll end up with the same numbers, which is why these are called “pseudo-random” numbers. Someone working in a computer center who understands how a certain process works can use that knowledge to hit the jackpot at an on- line gambling site. We, on the other hand, generate true random numbers by shooting photons onto a semitransparent mirror and then measuring when the light particles either pass through or are reflected, which is a com- pletely random process that can’t be predicted. We’ve developed a market-ready generator that creates billions of random numbers per second, and we’re already talking to compa- nies that want to build and sell it. In general, however, quantum physics is currently in the same application stage that we saw with semi- conductors and lasers when they were still in their infancy. By this I mean that the inventors phone line, and even the transmission of the data encoded using the quantum key can be in- tercepted without giving the eavesdropper any valuable information. Zeilinger’s team proved this in 2004, when they transferred €3,000 from Bank Austria to Vienna City Hall, a dis- tance of 1.5 kilometers. The great accomplishment of the SECOQC project is that it has scaled down this simple physical effect, which nevertheless used to re- quire a lot of machinery, into a system that fits into the housing of a conventional PC. The housing contains the optical components for generating the photons using a laser, the de- tectors that determine polarization direction, extended period of time; changing keys fre- quently enhances security. Ideally, a crypto- machine should generate a new key of the same length for every 128-bit data package, because it is impossible to crack such a “one- time pad” — even if one of the code keys is suc- cessfully broken, hackers would only have a snippet of data. What’s more, it would take them months to break each key. ARC’s cryptochip moves cryptography into a new dimension in this regard. It generates a new quantum key five to ten times per second, and each key can be as long as 256 or 512 bits. Then, after sending out these keys, it immedi- ately destroys its record of them. “We could and a cryptochip that uses light measurements to continually create new keys and exchange them via the fiber-optic line. The same housing also holds the computer that uses the quantum keys to encode the actu- al data with cryptographic algorithms. The data then races in encrypted form through the Inter- net at a speed of several gigabits per second. The keys are usually 128 bits long. “That’s se- cure enough and is doable with limited re- sources,” says Dr. Johannes Wolkerstorfer of Graz University of Technology. The university is collaborating with ARC and Siemens to develop the cryptographic machine hardware and soft- ware, including an easy-to-use interface, as part of the Quantum Cryptography on Chip project. A length of 128 bits corresponds to 10 38 different possibilities that a hacker would have to work through. That’s the equivalent of searching through ten billion people for a spe- cific, individual atom. Quantum Keys. Still, even 128-bit encryption can eventually be broken with the help of sta- tistical analysis of the encrypted data. That’s why one and the same key should never be used to encrypt large amounts of data over an also switch the keys more often by stockpiling them,” says Christian Monyk of ARC, who coor- dinates the SECOQC project. “We took part in the project in order to gain new knowledge about quantum cryptography applications,” says Robert Jonas, head of Securi- ty Solutions at Siemens IT Solutions and Services in Vienna. As Jonas points out, Siemens sees it- self as a systems provider that advises customers and creates solution packages encompassing hardware, software, and infrastructure. Devel- opment of quantum cryptography hardware was never part of this approach, however. As a result, Siemens is interested not only in the hardware developed by ARC, Anton Zeilinger’s research group, and Graz University of Technology; other components that are al- ready commercially available, including those from idQuantique in Geneva and MagiQ in New York, are also suitable for such applica- tions. So Jonas is optimistic. “Once the system attracts greater interest, and customers such as banks and military organizations begin asking for it, the cost of hardware components will fall and our commercial solutions will become more attractive. We’re ready for that day,” says Jonas. Bernd Müller The SECOQC system changes its quantum keys several times per second. Each key can be as long as 512 bits. Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 5554 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Digital Watchmen | Neural Quantum Computers I t’s an eternal battle. Criminals conceive ways to hack into computer systems and send their creations through the Internet, while soft- ware developers at companies and public agencies scramble to block intrusions and pro- tect users from damage. But as soon as one dangerous code is cracked, a new one springs up in the virtual world. Malicious software can trigger undesirable functions in an infected computer. Such programs usually operate in the background, unnoticed by computer users — but they can cause considerable damage, in- Researchers Rodion Neigovzen (left) and Steffen Glaser from the Technical University of Munich are using sodium formate molecules (see model at right) to realize a neural quantum computer. Catching Worms with Quanta The digital watchmen of the future will repel computer attacks, relying on a neural network’s adaptability and a quantum computer’s lightning speed. Siemens is already developing a prototype. Regardless of the anomaly-identification methodology, however, both require amazing speed. In fact, conventional computers trying to do the same thing would quickly be hin- dered by their physical limitations. With this in mind, Sollacher’s team is planning to combine neural networks with a technology that is still in its infancy: quantum computing. “For com- plex tasks like pattern recognition, a quantum computer really has what it takes,” say Sol- lacher. Trained as a physicist, Sollacher (48) uses a special property of quantum systems for his work. As a rule quanta are not in a single, un- cluding manipulation or deletion of entire files, detrimental changes to a computer’s online se- curity software, and unauthorized gathering of data for marketing purposes or for spying on the user. In 2005 the FBI conducted a study that in- cluded a survey of security experts at American companies, government agencies, and univer- sities. The survey respondents reported an av- erage loss of approximately $200,000 as a re- sult of online crime. The most commonly cited causes of the financial damages were viruses and worms. A particularly nasty form of attack is the computer worm. Unlike a virus, which attaches itself to a file that must be opened by the user in order to do its damage, a worm au- tonomously spreads through networks and at- tempts to burrow into other computers. To date, roughly 2,000 computer worms have been uncovered. Their codes are known, so their bit sequences can be “sniffed out” and barred by suitable security software, known as “sniffers.” But new worms, different from those already known, can emerge every day. That’s why we all need “digital watchmen” — elec- tronic systems that can automatically identify these new threats. With this in mind, specialists at the Learning Systems department of Siemens Corporate Technology (CT) are working on far-sighted so- lutions designed to permanently put worms out of business. Their weapon: development of a combination of neural networks with a quan- tum computer. Less Wiggle Room for Worms. When it comes to neural networks, Siemens experts rely on processes that work in a way similar to those in the human brain. “In neural networks, all nodes are connected with one another. The information is found in the strength of the indi- this nearly magical ability of neural networks that the Siemens researchers are now taking advantage of in their efforts to hunt down new worms. They can use it to recognize potentially dangerous signatures, much like the way fin- gerprints are used to recognize criminals. How- ever, if a worm is based on an entirely new process, a neural network will not catch it any- more than an FBI database will catch a first- time criminal. This is why Störmann recommends taking the opposite approach. “A sniffer that rapidly recognize patterns reads entire data transfer processes. It allows everything to pass through that corresponds to normal business transac- tions. But the instant it detects something new and unexpected, it sounds an alarm. Then the task is to determine if the anomaly represents a threat,” he says. This method is particularly suited for use in companies where the data be- ing transferred internally is very well known. ambiguous state but rather are simultaneously in all possible states, “superposed” on one an- other. A conventional computer calculates with bits, which have a value of 0 or 1, but a bit in a quantum computer can be 0 and 1 at the same time due to superpositioning. In the quantum world this kind of bit has even been assigned its own official name: “qubit.” Exploiting a Universe of Possibilities. A sys- tem composed of two qubits can assume the following states: 00, 01, 10, and 11 — and all simultaneously. And the number of possible combinations rises rapidly. For instance, with 32 qubits there are four billion possibilities. The idea in quantum computing is therefore to ex- ploit this multiplicity, with each calculation pro- ceeding in all states at the same time. It is therefore easy to see why the achievement of such technology could result in a super-power- ful parallel computer capable of working many vidual connections,” explains Dr. Rudolf Sol- lacher, of the Learning Systems center at CT. “These networks can be used to recognize new patterns without having to be given specific rules, for example.” Specialists call this adaptive learning. For instance, with regard to interpreting handwriting, Christof Störmann, who works closely with Sollacher, explains that, “A neural network that is trained using the letter ‘a’ writ- ten in many different ways will learn in time how an ‘a’ is supposed to look and then will be able to recognize an ‘a’ written in a style differ- ent from the ones it has already learned.” It is Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 57 Driving out the Crooks Services at airports should be secure, efficient, and convenient. And parking is no exception. That’s why Siemens is using overlapping imaging systems to help manage parking lots around Moscow’s booming Domodedovo Airport and make them safer. T he Russian capital of Moscow and its sur- rounding area can be reached by air via five airports. One of them — Domodedovo Interna- tional Airport — has become the largest and most rapidly expanding airport in Russia over the past few years. Between 2001 and 2007, passenger volume at the airport, which is lo- cated in the south of the city, rose from 3.8 mil- lion to around 18 million per year. This increasing volume poses new chal- lenges for the airport’s parking lot manage- ment system. To tackle this challenge, airport management turned to Siemens. “We opted for a parking lot solution from Siemens because, in addition to enabling the expansion of the exist- ing system, it provided parking lot users with a high level of security and convenience,” says Dmitrij Ognev, project manager for Domode- dovo Airport. Since November 2005, Siemens’ | Digital Parking Lots A car is allowed to leave the parking lot only if the number on a ticket agrees with its previously- photographed license plate. Cameras record the driver and the vehicle’s condition. Mobility Division has gradually installed state- of-the-art technology at three of the airport’s large parking lots with space for a total of 2,400 cars. As a result, the airport now has the most modern and secure parking lot system in Russia. One of the principal features of the Siemens solution is a license plate reading system. “This is one of the project’s most innovative compo- nents,” says Kirill Golovinski, who manages the project for Siemens in Russia. “It is without par- allel in Russia and very few comparable sys- tems can be found anywhere in Europe.” The system is equipped with three cameras. The first of these is an infrared camera that records the license plate numbers of entering vehicles. The camera can even read license plates when it’s dark or when weather condi- tions are bad. Meanwhile, a second camera takes a picture of the driver, while a third films the entire vehicle, documenting its color, brand, and condition. The data is transmitted via a broadband connection to a database, where it is stored. When a vehicle is about to leave the parking lot, the system compares the sets of data, al- lowing the driver to leave only if the car’s li- cense plate number and the number on the parking ticket match. The images from the other two cameras’ are also compared. “In this way, we were able to combat the previously frequent car thefts and manipulations of vehicle damage, which have since become more difficult and less common,” says Ognev. “The new system is especially good at defeating the parking lot defrauders who se- cretly sold short-term parking passes to long- term parkers.” 56 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Digital Watchmen | Neural Quantum Computers Rodion Neigovzen puts a solution of sodium formate and water into a spectrometer to manipulate qubits. times faster than conventional computers when recognizing patterns. And such a feature is a must if a sniffer is expected to check for malicious codes in real time in an avalanche of data that can easily amount to many gigabits per second. There’s one big problem with all of this, however: The kinds of quantum computers that would be needed to perform such opera- tions don’t exist. What’s more, those quantum tion under the supervision of Prof. Wilhelm Zwerger, the chair of Munich Technical Univer- sity’s Theoretical Physics department. “This simulation works with as many network nodes as you like,” says Neigovzen, “but only if the computer has the required capacity.” Neigovzen’s simulation of a neural quantum network functions beautifully in the virtual world. In fact, Sollacher's team at CT has al- ready used the algorithm to predict how a real exciting breakthrough. In December 2007, in the basement of the Chemistry building, the two teams completed the world’s first experi- ment creating a neural network which con- sisted of two bits running on a simple quantum computer. Reality Check. The researchers who con- ducted the experiment, Neigovzen and the uni- versity’s Dr. Jorge Neves, used a solution of wa- ter and sodium formate, whose molecules each have one carbon and one hydrogen atom. They poured the solution into a test tube, which they placed in a nuclear magnetic resonance spectrometer. NMR spectrometry is often used by chemists to perform structural analysis of biomolecules. However, the method can also be used to manipulate qubits. The NMR principle is based on the fact that most atomic nuclei — and particularly hydro- gen nuclei — behave like tiny bar magnets, spinning and tilting in a magnetic field. Thus, when the test solution is placed in a powerful magnetic field, its atomic nuclei arrange them- selves along the lines of the field, as a result of their spin and magnetic moment. Then, using appropriate high-frequency pulses, the atomic nuclei are “perturbed” — the equivalent of en- tering information into the quantum computer. The nuclei start to rotate like tops around the lines of the magnetic field, giving off character- istic radiation, which can be measured. This step corresponds to reading out the desired data. In the case of the researchers’ neural quantum computer, the measured signals agreed exactly with the values predicted by the simulation, confirming that Neigovzen’s simu- lation of a quantum computer delivers correct results in practice. Researchers have succeeded in creating the world’s first neural network using a quantum computer. computers that have been developed to date can handle only a few qubits, and these proto- types are too complex and cumbersome for everyday use. That’s why Sollacher and his col- leagues decided to assess the advantages of running a neural network on a quantum com- puter by simulating how such a system would work. Simulating a Quantum Network. The man who was given this complex simulation assign- ment is 29-year-old quantum computing spe- cialist Rodion Neigovzen. “I started by transfer- ring the spatial and chronological development of a neural network into the quantum world and developing the associated mathematical formulas,” he reports. Neigovzen used a con- ventional computer to simulate this process, an original development for his doctoral disserta- quantum computer running on a neural net- work would behave in detecting patterns. But do the results reflect reality? To determine the answer, Sollacher’s team looked for a way to observe the results in an experiment. Their search led them to Prof. Steffen Glaser and his colleagues at Munich Technical Univer- sity’s Chemistry department, where re- searchers had been working for years toward the realization of quantum computers and the ability to control qubits in theory and practice. This encounter quickly led to the the estab- lishment of a partnership between Siemens Corporate Technology and the Technical Uni- versity —a partnership that soon produced an As far as Prof. Glaser was concerned, the ex- periment constituted something like a contact with another world — the world of neural net- works. “It’s exciting to combine Siemens ex- pertise in this area with our know-how in quan- tum computing,” says Glaser. And for Siemens, this collaboration could be the seed that grows into a neural quantum computer, one that can detect computer worms faster and more effectively than any system available today. A prototype of such a computer is expected to be ready in one to two years. “But it will still be a few years before it all results in a product,” says Sollacher.Brigitte Röthlein Growing Boom in IT Security Technologies Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 59 the user into transferring funds to such sites. In December 2007 an anti-phishing initiative, APWG, recorded more than 25,000 attacks per month. And in a series of studies from 2008 titled “Banking IT in 2023,” U.S. market re- searcher Forrester forecasts that convenient use of new types of mobile terminals will become the standard means of conducting banking processes and transactions. In this series, Forrester Vice President Jost Hoppermann sees a two-fold authentication process, for example using finger- prints and passwords, as indispensable. Another area of application for “digital watchmen” is protection against counterfeit products by means of radio frequency identification chips (RFIDs). Between 2006 and 2016 in Germany, sales generated with RFID components are expected to rise by an average of 19 percent annually, from more than €1.1 billion today to €16 billion. And ac- cording to an assessment by Deutsche Bank Research in a current study titled “RFID chips: Enabling the efficient ex- change of information,” annual growth rates worldwide may be as high as 25 percent. “Transport of goods and re- lated logistics are the largest areas of application, and use of the chips with costly medications and lifestyle drugs is increasing,” says Stefan Heng, an analyst at Deutsche Bank Research. Pharmaceutical companies are attaching RFID tags and electronic certificates of authenticity to bulk packages of medications. Using a reading device, a phar- macist can quickly check a medication’s authenticity. This market is expected to develop strongly. Market researchers at IDTechEx, for example, predict the market for RFID equipment used in the health care and pharmaceutical sectors will grow from its 2008 level of about $20 million to more than $400 million by 2018. This is due to the number of counterfeit medications being produced, which has been rising sharply for years. Statistics released by EU customs authorities indicate they found 2.7 million coun- terfeit medications in 2006. And the number of such med- ications seized in 2007 increased by 51 percent compared to the previous year’s total. In 2008 alone, customs per- sonnel taking part in an EU-wide operation found 34 mil- lion counterfeit medications in only two months. “The market for security technologies overall has grown from what initially were only loosely linked niche markets into a vibrant new sector shaped by its high-tech applications and dynamic growth,” concludes Wolfgang Pflüger, chief economist at Berenberg Bank. And there are still areas of potential to be opened up in this market. “Use of new materials and security mechanisms, as well as de- velopment of innovative application scenarios for modern high-security technologies, must guarantee improved pro- tection against identity theft,” says Ulrich Hamann, CEO of Bundesdruckerei GmbH, in assessing this growth market. Nikola Wohllaib Worldwide RFID Demand Sales in billions of euros Average growth +25% p.a. 0 2006 2008 2011 2016 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Source: Deutsche Bank Research, 2008 RFID Applications Percentage of the projects covered by the survey Transport Production control Product information Access control Customer cards/ payment Leisure/ household Health care Public services 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 n = 493 companies in Germany Source: IIG Freiburg, 2008 Germany Projected Increases in Mobile and Internet Banking Users aged 16 years or older (in %) 0 4 10 20 30 40 50 France Great Britain Italy Internet banking users 2007 Internet banking users 2010 Mobile banking users 2007 Mobile banking users 2010 8 6 6 20 25 25 25 Source: Celent Europe Phishing Victims in Germany 0 2005 2006* 2007* 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 2,609 3,309 4,135 * Extrapolation, basis: approx. 90% of the population Source: BITKOM 58 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 | Facts and Forecasts D emand for security technologies has increased tremendously in recent years. This is a result, in part, of our awareness of the risks related to public safety is- sues. Security standards have been upgraded at railway stations and airports, and for commercial buildings. This has been confirmed in recent years by the booming busi- ness in biometric solutions — including systems that rec- ognize fingerprints, speech, and faces — and in access control systems (Pictures of the Future, Spring 2008, p. 99). Also showing strong growth are security technologies Post-crisis,” IDC forecasts that growth rates will decrease from their 2008 level of 13.2 percent to 9.8 percent in 2009, before slowly rebounding to about 10.3 percent in 2010. IDC analyst Brian E. Burke expects “demand for se- curity products will continue to be stronger than that for other IT technologies in 2009.” This is because companies will have to comply with legal requirements imposed by European and international guidelines, Burke explains. For 2010 and beyond, for instance, Burke predicts that addi- tional requirements in the field of data protection and more stringent regulations for financial reporting will lead to a robust increase in companies’ expenditures for secu- rity solutions. Analysts at Celent, an international market research firm, expect a big increase in online and mobile phone banking by customers in Western Europe. Today only six percent of bank customers in the region use mobile bank- ing, a figure expected to rise to 25 percent by 2010. This development could also result in damages and losses for a growing number of users. For 2007 in Germany alone, the German Association for Information Technology, Telecom- munications, and New Media (Bitkom) recorded a 25-per- cent increase in unauthorized use of PIN numbers com- pared to 2006, and monetary damages of €19 million. Another important factor in online banking is “phishing.” Criminals who engage in phishing send an e-mail contain- ing “malware” (malicious software) that installs itself on a user’s computer, where it works undetected, gathering PIN numbers and passing them on to unauthorized users. mal- ware can also direct an online banking user to a counter- feit web site designed to appear legitimate, thus tricking related to video surveillance systems used in subways (Pic- tures of the Future, Fall 2006, p. 93). What’s more, the in- creasing digitalization of everyday life and stronger meas- ures for protecting sensitive corporate data have generated an enormous demand for solutions that can prevent identity theft. Security technologies are used with authentication and transaction processes for online and telephone banking, and to provide protection against counterfeit medications. Given this broad spectrum of security- and safety-re- lated concerns in today’s information society, analysts of the Hamburg Institute of International Economics and the Berenberg Bank collaborated on a study titled “Security In- dustry — Strategy 2030.” The study forecasts that the worldwide market for security services will reach $231 bil- lion by 2015, doubling its 2005 level. IDC, a U.S.-based market research institute, is also predicting high rates of growth in the security products field in coming years, a prediction that has been adjusted downward only slightly since the emergence of the financial crisis. In a market analysis titled “Worldwide Security Products 2008 — 2012: 2005 2010 2015 Global Market for Security Services Billions of U.S. dollars 0 50 100 150 200 250 Worldwide U.S. Germany Japan China Source: Calculations by Berenberg Bank on the basis of current market data Digital Watchmen 58 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 To make arrivals and departures more com- fortable for those who use the parking lots fre- quently, Siemens incorporated a Hughes Iden- tification Device (HID) — a contactless permanent parking pass system. Unlike normal parking lot users, airport employees and se- lected customers do not receive the usual pa- per ticket, but instead a credit-card-size perma- nent parking pass equipped with a transponder containing a ten- to 12-digit code number. On the basis of this ID, the airport assigns parking rights for particular spaces. Contactless reading devices for permanent parking passes have been set up at all parking lot entrances and ex- its. If a driver shows a pass in the vicinity of one of these devices, the data — for example, the number of the parking pass and the car’s li- cense plate number — are read and evaluated. If all of the data matches, the driver is allowed to proceed. Secure Payments. By requiring the input of a PIN code, the solution for processing a credit card at an automatic payment machine also in- creases security. Here, the data is coded twice and sent from the airport to an associated bank. Third party interference is thus virtually impossible. Unlike the offline processes used by other providers, this system does not put the data into intermediate storage during pay- ment, but instead processes the information, which it records with the help of fiscal printers. Incorporated into the payment machines, these printers contain a roll of paper for print- ing out receipts as well as a memory chip for recording all transactions. Such printers are needed so that the Russian internal revenue service can check all of the payment processes. “In the future, transactions will increasingly be handled in such online cash flows,” says Svet- lana Sabirova from the Siemens sales organiza- tion in Moscow. Siemens’ know-how and expertise will con- tinue to be in demand at Domodedovo Airport. “It’s very likely that Siemens’ next order from Domodedovo will be for the parking lot for the buses and vans used in local public transport,” says Andreas Schneider of Siemens Mobility in Berlin, who manages the project from Ger- many. “And the way things are looking at the moment, it probably won’t be the last order ei- ther.” That’s because news of the parking lot system’s success has spread throughout Moscow and beyond. In addition to two addi- tional airports near Moscow, the city of Sochi, the venue of the 2014 Winter Olympics, has also expressed interest in high-tech access so- lutions from Siemens, which could also meet increased demands for security and help to fight crime. Julia Wetjen Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 6160 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Digital Watchmen | IT Security I t’s seven o’clock on a Wednesday morning, and things are still quiet at the Siemens Up- time Service Center (USC) in Erlangen, Ger- many. But that can change in a second. All of the fault reports and queries from customers throughout Germany who have Siemens med- ical equipment are processed and collated here, and there are around 41,000 such sys- tems. Worldwide, Siemens monitors roughly 200,000 medical systems ranging from CT scanners to MR and PET diagnostic systems. With its remote maintenance centers and software updates, Siemens can eliminate up to 50 percent of the faults in large-scale medical equipment worldwide via data networks. Indefatigable Guardians When it comes to medical technology, equipment reliability and availabil- ity are indispensable. To guarantee uninterrupted service, Siemens offers an innovative remote-maintenance concept that makes it possible to detect and eliminate faults — often before they cause any problems. providing prompt processing of customer queries, preventive maintenance, and rapid resolution of fault reports. If a customer experiences problems or sim- ply has a query, he or she can contact the Up- time Service Center around the clock. An ex- pert at the center will go online (frequently even during the same telephone call), log into the customer’s network, and initiate a diagnos- tic process. This functionality requires the sys- tem to be connected to the Siemens Remote 24/7 Solution. In up to 50 percent of the faults reported worldwide, the problem can be fixed by the USC and therefore eliminated re- motely. If this is not possible, Siemens experts have access to a spare parts catalogue and can order any part that may be required without delay. In 97 percent of all cases, the customer has the part on the very next day — world- wide. In particularly urgent situations, for ex- ample in the event of a total failure, the re- quired components can be sent immediately by Today, the diagnosis and ordering of spare parts by the remote service team takes place within about 30 minutes. Should on-site serv- ice be required, most of the engineering call- outs for the next day can be planned online, and in around three quarters of all cases the fault can be eliminated during an engineer’s first visit. The platform for this online access and re- mote maintenance service is provided by SRS (Pictures of the Future, Spring 2005). Siemens specialists from the USC use a reliable IT infra- structure based on a securely-encrypted VPN (Virtual Private Network) connection to con- nect directly to the system and the customer. “It is like a central forum where service engi- neers and customers exchange information with each other,” says Head of Product Support Dr. Stefan Henkel. Certified Data Protection. At Siemens Re- mote Service, data security is considered to be of supreme importance — as it should be, given the fact that “we are dealing with highly services, including virus protection — a partic- ularly important feature since more and more clinical equipment is integrated into network systems. This integration has considerable ad- vantages. For instance, using a panel at the pa- tient’s bedside, the attending physician can call up patient-related data stored in a central data- base (Pictures of the Future, Spring 2008, p. 70) or transmit images from a computer tomo- graph to a digital patient file at the press of a button, immediately after they have been taken. Virus Hunt. Damage inflicted by viruses can severely compromise a hospital’s operations — for instance by causing a system crash with sig- nificant associated delays, by putting emer- gency patients at risk, or by losing vital data. This is why the radiology department at Switzerland’s University Hospital Basel chose a comprehensive VP solution in 2007. The hospital records more than 10,000 digi- tal patient images a day, a figure that requires some 18 gigabytes and is nevertheless steadily increasing. What’s more, the facility’s imaging systems operate at full capacity, which is why all systems must be available for use at all times in order for workflows to proceed smoothly. To ensure the highest level of data security, as well as seamless operation, the Siemens Ser- vice Center not only monitors hospital systems, but works closely with the customer. Every hospital employee is required to report any ir- regularities. Siemens uses an extensively tested and proven virus scanner from Trend Micro. The product can continuously monitor elec- tronic systems without interfering with the hospital’s processes. The product is also pre- These functions certainly boost the effec- tiveness of a hospital’s workflows in terms of time and labor requirements. But they also bring with them a spectrum of risks that every computer user is familiar with — risks that range from USB sticks containing data down- loaded from the Internet, and growing num- bers of viruses, worms and Trojans that can penetrate and damage systems. To combat this problem, Siemens has devel- oped Virus Protection (VP), a scanning program that prevents hostile attacks by detecting bit sequences that are typical of viruses and block- ing them before they can be activated. sensitive patient information,” says Michael Püschel, head of the System Management Cen- ter for Siemens’ Healthcare Sector, which pro- vides the infrastructure. “It is precisely at this critical point where sensitive data and net- worked systems come together that Siemens offers maximum security,” he adds. This is con- firmed by TÜV Süd, a certification organization, which has certified that the center’s informa- tion security management system is in compli- ance with the ISO 27001 international stan- dard. The possibilities that SRS offers have en- abled Siemens to develop further innovative taxi — and in areas that are difficult to access, for instance the mountains of Canada, even helicopters can be chartered. At the same time, the USC will inform a local engineer and simul- taneously dispatch him with the spare part to the customer. Things weren’t always this easy. Only a few years ago, around two hours after a report was received, an engineer would arrive at the cus- tomer site and it would take another hour for the diagnosis to be completed. Only then were spare parts ordered. Yet another visit was re- quired for the actual repair. As a result, exten- sive down time were often experienced. Service (SRS). After entering the customer’s system ID, the Siemens expert will be looking at the same screen content that a service engi- neer would see. Without interrupting the operation of the device, the Siemens expert first looks at the log files and the entries that provide any informa- tion about the location of the fault. In the case of a magnetic resonance scanner, for example, he may look for problems that occur when slid- ing the table in, or coils that may have been in- correctly connected by the customer that would cause signal interference and thus im- age degradation. As is so often the case, there are peak hours with particularly intense bursts of activity. “In Germany alone, we processed more than 100,000 reports in 2008,” recalls Arne West- phal, who heads the USC. In most countries where it is represented, Siemens has established Uptime Service Cen- ters to support international customers in their own national languages. Together with its Regional Support Center and Headquarters Support Center, which spe- cializes in unusual and complex problems, the Uptime Service Centers form the Siemens cus- tomer support network that is responsible for Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 63 W hen Alexander Fleming discovered peni- cillin in 1928, he achieved a medical milestone. The antibiotic gave mankind its first effective weapon for combating bacterial pathogens. Unfortunately, this success did not last. By 1961, the first bacteria resistant to all active ingredients of the penicillin group ap- peared: methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus), or MRSA for short. Since then, MRSA has spread rapidly, partic- ularly in hospitals. According to the U.S. Cen- ters for Disease Control and Prevention, MRSA’s share of total infections at intensive care units in the U.S. rose from two percent in 1974 to 64 percent in 2004. Of the estimated 292,000 in- fections caused yearly in hospitals by S. aureus, around 126,000 are due to MRSA, and 19,000 of these are fatal. primary isolates and determining their antimi- crobial susceptibility are so popular. Siemens’ MicroScan Systems combine such methodologies for isolate identification and antimicrobial susceptibility testing on one test panel. The MicroScan Systems use direct growth-based susceptibility testing that allows for the true expression of resistance. The test panels contain multiple “wells” for holding cul- ture media, biochemicals, and antibiotics in various concentrations. Once the panels have been prepared with a previously isolated cul- ture of the organism at a determined concen- tration, they are placed inside a MicroScan WalkAway instrument for processing. There, the bacterial isolate is incubated with identifi- cation substrates and other materials. The sys- tem’s software interprets the measured bacter- ial concentrations and analyzes the test to detect any atypical or unknown reactions. The results are then transferred to the physi- cian to verify if the patient’s current therapy is appropriate and, if not, to immediately admin- ister effective antibiotics as determined by the test. “We offer a range of different microtiter plates, including several for use in the rapid identification of the isolate with key antimicro- bial results in as little as four and one-half hours,” reports Laura Jackson, Global Product Manager at MicroScan. “The susceptibility incu- bation period can be automatically extended to 16 hours when absolutely accurate resistance information is needed. In this case, the system offers the same degree of precision as manual tests. This degree of accuracy has been proved by direct comparisons of clinical isolates such as S. aureus.” Until 1997, doctors faced with cases of MRSA infection were able to fall back on van- comycin. However, in that year, the first strain of S. aureus with reduced susceptibility to this powerful antibiotic appeared in Tokyo. The Mi- croScan system is the first fully automatic sys- tem to be approved by the FDA that can iden- tify this vancomycin-resistant S. aureus (VRSA). Breaking Bacterial Resistance. To ensure that mutated pathogens like these can be quickly and reliably recognized and diagnosed, scientists at Siemens Corporate Research (SCR) in Princeton, New Jersey, are now focusing their research on new identification methods that target the bacteria’s genetic material and proteins. Gayle Wittenberg and her colleagues at SCR are working together with the Power and Sen- sor Systems department of Siemens Corporate Technology (CT) in Erlangen, Germany, to de- velop such a process. Unlike the MicroScan system, which directly uses a sample to deter- mine what antibiotic concentrations are effec- tive, the SCR approach relies on a rapid method for analyzing the genetic material. Once this has been done, researchers look for an effec- tive antibiotic, using the genetic data stored in a computer. “The advantage of our approach is that we can not only develop rapid tests, pro- viding results in one hour, but we have also de- veloped a framework that will allow us to de- velop new diagnostic tests rapidly based on the genetic sequence of the pathogen,” Wittenberg explains. The system is still in the development stage. Wittenberg wants to conduct the rapid tests with lab-on-a-chip technology (Pictures of the Future, Fall 2004, p. 74). With this technology, a drop of saliva or blood, for example, is placed on a mobile examination plate equipped with a microscopic diagnostics lab. Here, the bacteria are automatically opened, and the genetic ma- terial is deciphered using the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) method. This method multiplies the DNA in vitro (outside of a living organism). Finally, the individual DNA building blocks are detected using a special biochip. To this end, the individual building blocks are marked with special molecules and measured on the basis of a voltage change. It will take at least another year until the first prototype becomes avail- able. Because its design will make it so easy to handle and operate, the lab-on-a-chip system is not intended for use in laboratories, but in treatment rooms themselves. The technology will allow doctors and nursing staff to take blood from a patient, analyze it, and receive a result from an associated computer within a few minutes — no external labs required.Be- sides being suitable for hospitals, the system is also a solution for applications in the food in- dustry, where products have to be tested for microbial contamination. Thanks to the speed of the analysis and the mobile nature of the lab-on-a-chip, the system could also be used to regularly check sterile areas such as operating rooms — or even to provide early warning of epidemics, and defend against bio-terrorism. Wittenberg and her team are already plan- ning the next step, which will include identify- ing bacteria not on the basis of their genetic material alone, but also on their proteins. How- ever, they still have to develop the marker mol- ecules that will be needed for this process. Suc- cess here would allow faster and simpler identification of bacteria. “Focusing on proteins in addition to genes will help us identify bio- markers linked directly to the mechanisms of drug resistance. These should be less sensitive to the organism’s ongoing evolution,” explains Wittenberg. Michael Lang Because these bacteria multiply exponen- tially, effective antibiotics have to be adminis- tered as quickly as possible. If it is suspected that a patient is suffering from an infection, for example due to a deterioration of his or her overall condition, hospital staff take a sample, which is then analyzed in a diagnostics lab to determine which antibiotics would be most ef- fective in combatting it, and in what concen- tration. Traditionally, microbiology labs run a series of biochemical identification procedures along with disk diffusion tests to determine a bacteria’s antimicrobic susceptibility profile. These procedures are extremely personnel-in- tensive, however, which is why new, some- times fully automatic, processes for identifying | Bacteria Detection Siemens’ Microscan systems (below) identify bacte- ria and their susceptibility to antibiotics. Research is moving forward rapidly in developing lab-on-a-chip technology (right) that will accelerate diagnostics. Closing in on Deadly Enemies More and more bacteria are developing resistance to antibiotics — a deadly trend for weakened patients in hospitals. Siemens offers processes that can be used to quickly identify highly resistant bacteria — and provide fast results regarding the effectiveness of antibiotics. Researchers are also developing and testing promising new methods based on genetic and protein targets. 62 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Digital Watchmen | IT Security ventively and constantly updated with informa- tion regarding the latest virus signatures, which are tested in advance for relevance and compatibility with the imaging system in ques- tion. “This makes it possible to minimize risks with little effort on the part of the hospital,” says Christian Kluth, head of Medicine and Op- erational Technology at University Hospital Basel. Built-in Brains. For particularly important equipment that requires the highest possible level of system availability — for instance in the context of interventional cardiology or emer- gency computer tomography — Siemens offers an additional level of proactive service: the Guardian Program. Around the clock and in real time, this sys- tem monitors key device parameters including the functionality of X-ray tubes in angiography systems, the temperature and flow speed of coolant in magnetic resonance tomographs, and the rotation speed and vibration of com- puter tomographs. The number of parameters to be monitored varies tremendously depending on the system being monitored. It is not unusual for 100 or even 200 threshold values to be monitored in- dividually or in correlation with one another. Such values are pre-defined by Siemens device engineers during the device’s pilot phase, and are constantly checked. As soon as one of these values exceeds or falls short of its set limits, this is registered on- line. “The systems have their own intelligence,” explains Püschel, who is an expert in machine pattern analysis. “They automatically tell us if there are indications of a possible fault.” Employees at the Siemens Service Center can then respond promptly and, under ideal circumstances, eliminate the fault directly in the system — before device users have noticed any sign of a problem. In a recent development, this has also be- come possible for X-ray tubes in computed to- mography scanners from the Somatom Defini- tion family. TubeGuard, an additional option to the Guardian Program, provides problem-free patient images around the clock. More than ten sensors monitor tube functions, ensuring that deviations can be spotted and reported via data transfer through SRS before problems ac- tually occur. And TubeGuard is just one of many recent service innovations from Siemens. According to SRS Product Support head Henkel, further in- novative services are already in the pipeline, because, as he says, “the service development process never stops.” Stephanie Lackerschmid Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 6564 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Digital Watchmen | Smoke Detectors Regardless of whether the source of danger is weld- ing, a smoldering fire, or an open blaze (below) — Siemens detectors know when to sound an alarm. Markus Späni monitors signals at the Fire Lab (right). Where there’s Smoke there’s… Smoke detectors that automatically distinguish between false alarms and dangerous blazes, cameras that transmit real-time images from the scene of a fire, and extinguishers that smother flames in seconds — Siemens Building Technologies’ Fire Lab in Zug, Switzerland is the place where the company’s hottest fire-fighting innovations are demonstrated. completely absorbed. If, however, the light rays encounter smoke particles, the light will be scattered and some of the rays will hit photo- electric cells integrated into the unit. Smoldering fires produce light-colored smoke containing large particles that can be better detected through a forward scatter than a back scatter system. The exact opposite is T he pieces of wood on the hot metal plate are beginning to smoke, first in thin plumes, which become thicker and thicker. Af- ter three or four minutes, a column of white smoke has formed directly above the glowing wood chips. The air in the rest of the room is clear, how- ever — and this is how dangerous smoldering fires generally begin. The moment of truth is therefore at hand for a test involving eight dif- ferent kinds of smoke detectors installed on the ceiling of the room. When will each sound an alarm? “Most major blazes begin as smoldering fires,” says Markus Späni, head of Siemens Building Technologies’ (BT) Fire Lab, which is located in Zug, Switzerland. “Such fires initially produce little smoke. What’s more, tempera- tures don’t rise much either.” The Fire Lab is where the fire detection systems developed and tested by BT researchers and engineers are actually demonstrated. While the wood chips continue to smoke away on the 500-degree Celsius hot plate, curves depicted on a monitor reveal which of the detectors have recognized the danger. Sev- eral of the optical detectors from Siemens have already sounded an alarm. But an ionization smoke detector — for many years the detector of choice — has yet to notice anything. Ionization detectors use a weak radiation source to ionize the air, thus making it conduc- On the other hand, the signals produced by the optical detectors that appear on the moni- tor clearly indicate the danger posed by the thin smoke at a very early stage. Detectors uti- lized in Siemens’ new Sinteso S-Line fire protec- tion system are particularly fast and reliable, as they are equipped with two optical sensors — rather than one, as was previously the case — and because they have two temperature sen- sors. “There are no other detectors like these at the moment,” says Späni. The units operate ac- cording to the principle of optical forward and back scatter. Inside each unit’s housing is a kind of labyrinth with many plastic walls. The labyrinth steers the scattered light onto precise pathways. If no smoke is present, the light will hit the walls of the labyrinth, where it will be smoke is made possible by advanced signal analysis (ASA) technology developed by Siemens. ASA software enables the processor in the detector to convert the signals recorded by the photoelectric cell and temperature sen- sors into mathematical values. Specially-developed algorithms then com- pare the signal values with predefined value levels, and the resulting analysis allows the sys- tem to differentiate between a real fire for which an alarm needs to be triggered, and harmless steam from cooking or even smoke from welding. “Every detector equipped with ASA technol- ogy can be precisely calibrated for the environ- ment in which it is to be used,” Späni explains. A good example of the importance of such a feature is offered by industrial applications, Unlike ionization detectors, optical devices can detect smoldering fires at a very early stage. tive. Air conductivity decreases if the ions col- lide with smoke particles, causing the detector to sound an alarm if it measures the lower cur- rent. “This system works great when there’s a blazing fire — but when a substance is simply smoldering, the number of smoke particles is so low that the detector won’t notice them un- til some time after an optical unit does,” Späni explains. true of open fires, which generate smaller dark particles. Here, back scatter produces a stronger signal than forward scatter. A proces- sor in the detector analyzes all this data, calcu- lates what type of fire is most likely occurring, and then sounds an applicable alarm. Recognizing Harmless Smoke. The detec- tor’s ability to distinguish between types of Siemens’ Sinteso detectors distinguish between light and fire and measure CO concentrations. 66 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Digital Watchmen | Smoke Detectors Sinteso can be adapted to location-specific needs.Historical books stayed dry after Sinorix put out a fire. where harmless smoke or steam is frequently formed, and generally causes conventional de- tectors to trigger an alarm. “That’s not the case with multi-sensor detectors equipped with ASA software,” says Späni. “They recognize that smoke from welding can not be a blaze be- cause the typical intervals of the welding process mean that the resulting smoke doesn’t form continually.” To ensure such functionality, the parameter sets in the detector must be precisely aligned with the types of fires expected at a given facil- tels, skyscrapers, and shopping malls. In fact, such facilities can no longer be safely operated without such state-of-the-art technology. As a consequence, new smoke detectors have to be integrated into high-performance safety sys- tems. To this end, Siemens developed its Sin- teso fire detection center systems, which are modularly designed and equipped with stan- dard interfaces. These systems can be ex- panded at any time to accommodate new building wings or the modernization of older equipment. another. Put simply, this has meant that cam- eras have not been programmed to automati- cally record images from the area where an alarm has been sounded. With this in mind, Siemens has developed a combined system that automatically transmits live images from the areas affected by a fire, so that such images can be analyzed both immediately and later. Such images can provide valuable information on the causes of a fire as well as the real-time situation that firemen and rescue services per- sonnel will confront at the scene. flash point for objects in the room. Both extin- guishing agents flow through the same pipe network and nozzles, whereby the nitrogen propels the water in a manner that ensures a consistent and moderate flow. It takes only a small amount of water to substantially cool down overheated devices or surfaces, thereby offering further protection in addition to the gas’ flame-retardant effect. In addition, the mist reduces the danger of re-ignition. If the greatest possible extinguishing effec- tiveness is to be achieved, the nitrogen-water mixture must be precisely aligned with the spe- cific properties of, and the expected fire risks in, the area in question. Siemens has therefore developed a program that precisely calculates the dimensions required for the pipes and spray nozzles for diverse application areas, as well as the distances involved and the time it will take to spray specific rooms. Both the ex- tinguishing device and the calculation program have been evaluated by the German Property Insurance Association (VdS). The result: Sinorix H 2 O Gas is the only combined gas-water indoor extinguishing system to be approved to date. Sinorix H 2 O Gas was also presented with the Security Innovation Award at the 2008 Security trade fair in Essen, Germany. Such outstanding references played a key role in convincing safety officials at the Danish Royal Library in Copenhagen to choose Sinorix for its fire protection needs — and the protec- tion of its valuable books and documents. “They brought some valuable historical books with them and we demonstrated how a Sinorix extinguishing procedure causes no permanent damage to them,” Mann reports. In fact, the dampness of the books was so minimal that they didn’t even have to be dried off. Katrin Nikolaus Nitrogen-Water Mixture. Fires are usually extinguished by sprinkler systems. The idea is to cool flammable objects and prevent a blaze from spreading quickly. “This technique is not, however, suitable for facilities such as archives, museums, and libraries because water dam- ages or destroys their valuable papers, books, and paintings,” says Dr. Thomas Mann, head of the Extinguisher Competence Center at Siemens BT in Zug. In order to avoid such consequences, an al- ternative method is to smother a blaze by fill- ing the area in question with a non-flammable gas, which displaces the oxygen in the room. When the oxygen component in the air falls be- low a certain level, the flames automatically die out. A number of fire extinguishing systems based on natural gases function along these lines. Siemens has come up with a solution that combines gas and water while keeping each at a minimum. And thanks to its natural con- stituents, the system is environmentally friendly and safe for humans. Known as the Sinorix H 2 O Gas extinguishing system, it uses nitrogen to lower oxygen concentrations, while at the same time emitting a mist that re- duces the ambient temperature to below the The systems independently monitor all de- tection devices and evaluate their data. Several systems can be networked and operated either locally or via a control center. The systems also have a unique emergency backup feature, which, even in the event of a complete failure of the main processor, enable them to register and trigger any alarms initiated by a detector, notify the fire department, and take measures to ensure the evacuation of a building. This ity, as well as with data on the activities that could trigger a false alarm. A unique feature here is the device’s ability to issue alarms in stages. If the measured sensor signals do not allow for a definitive conclusion, the system nevertheless reports to the control center that a dangerous situation may be in the process of developing. “In the case of a full-fledged alarm, the system automatically contacts the fire de- partment,” says Späni. Electrochemical cells enable detectors to register even odorless, toxic carbon monoxide. Safer Skyscrapers. Multi-sensor detectors can do even more, however, as they are equipped with an electrochemical cell that en- ables them to register the presence of carbon monoxide (CO), which is invisible and odorless, and therefore especially dangerous. Just a few lung fulls of CO can kill, and carbon monoxide poisoning is the number one cause of death in fires. Thanks to CO multi-sensor detectors and other technical features, Siemens is moving into a new dimension in fire protection for ho- makes it possible to utilize Sinteso even in large areas such as airports and shopping centers. Europe’s largest shopping mall — Westfield London — is monitored by a Sinteso system, for example. Sinteso’s modular design enables control centers to be continually updated with the lat- est technology, including a combination of video and fire detection systems. Video images can be very helpful in a fire — but up until re- cently video surveillance and smoke detection system functions were not aligned with one Two infrared light sources (forward and back scatter) In the absence of smoke, light will be completely absorbed by the walls. Smoke particles, on the other hand, scatter light rays, which then hit a photoelectric cell. The positioning of light sources and the forward or back scat- tering of light helps the system distinguish between light and dark smoke particles. A precise, sophisticated, and patented labyrinth steers light onto special pathways in order to prevent false alarms being sounded due to coincidental reflections. Two temperature measurement sensors CO sensor for measuring carbon monoxide concentrations. 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 In Brief In the age of globalization and IT technol- ogy, criminality has taken on a completely new face. Counterfeit products cause up to €300 billion of damage each year, while on- line scammers score large sums of money with a single mouse click. However, help is now on the way in the form of a novel Inter- net ID card and a copy-protected RFID chip from Siemens. (p. 42, 45, 48) Internet users can take some simple meas- ures to make life more difficult for online scammers, such as using encryption. Siemens and its partners in an EU project recently demonstrated that unbreakable quantum cryptography is now ready for a market launch. (p. 50, 51) Quantum physics can be used to forge high-tech solutions. For example, Siemens has developed a prototype of a neural quantum computer that in the future could perform several billion calculations simultaneously. In addition, it will be capable of working together with other neural networks in order to ward off cyber attacks. (p. 54) Siemens has also specialized in security solutions that have nothing to do with the Internet. Examples include smoke detectors that automatically detect a false alarm and even odorless, toxic carbon monoxide. The company has also developed parking lot solu- tions that use intelligent camera technology and only permit a vehicle to leave the lot if the previously photographed license plate matches the number on the parking ticket. (p. 56, 64) In the field of medical technology, reliabil- ity and availability are two of the most impor- tant factors — for example, when it comes to systems for rapidly identifying highly resistant bacteria. Such systems can provide important information about the effective- ness of anti- biotics. Siemens also offers a remote-maintenance concept that makes it possible to detect and eliminate faults in medical devices long before they can cause any problems. (p. 60, 62) PEOPLE: RFID Against Counterfeits: Dr. Michael Braun, CT email@example.com RFID for Abdominal Pads: Thomas Jell, SIS firstname.lastname@example.org RFID for Blood Bags: Harald Speletz, Industry email@example.com Secure Banking Transactions: Olaf Badstübner, SIS firstname.lastname@example.org Quantum Cryptography: Robert Jonas, PSE email@example.com Quantum Computers: Dr. Rudolf Sollacher, CT firstname.lastname@example.org Parking Lot Monitoring: Andreas Schneider, Industry email@example.com Siemens Uptime Service: Arne Westphal, Germany Region firstname.lastname@example.org Siemens Remote Services: Dr. Stefan Henkel, Healthcare email@example.com Bacteria Detection: Laura Jackson, Healthcare firstname.lastname@example.org Gayle Wittenberg, SCR email@example.com Smoke Detectors: Markus Späni, Industry firstname.lastname@example.org Dr. Thomas Mann, Industry email@example.com Prof. Anton Zeilinger firstname.lastname@example.org Prof. Steffen Glaser email@example.com LINKS: German Federal Office for Information Security: www.bsi.de Austrian Research Centers: www.arcs.ac.at Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 67 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 6968 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Pictures of the Future | Economic Crisis and Opportunities T hese are difficult times for the climate. The economic crisis is dominating the political agenda and crowding out discussion of green- house gases and energy efficiency. In Ger- many, newspapers are running headlines like “Climate Protection on Hold” and “Climate Pro- tection at Risk.” Some politicians share this view and would like to suspend those climate- protection programs that are already agreed on, at least until the economy rebounds. Is climate protection a luxury for better times? “No,” says Prof. Ottmar Edenhofer, chief economist of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in an interview with Pic- tures of the Future . “Anyone who claims it is doesn’t understand the fundamentals of eco- nomics,” he says. The global recession de- mands government intervention, and this can be directed in part toward climate protection. Investments in clean technologies — from efficient and renewable power generation and transmission to green buildings and CO 2 capture and sequestra- tion — can help overcome the economic crisis. Engines of Tomorrow’s Growth As times get tougher, temptation is mounting to cut costs and relax standards in the fight against global warming. Yet investments in greater sustainability benefit not only environmental protection but also the health of economies. “In the short term, climate protection programs stimulate the economy. In the long term, they promote the spread of new technologies,” he says. That view is shared by Nobuo Tanaka, who heads the International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris, France. “If governments are spending money on economic stimulus packages, why not promote renewable energies?” he asked at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzer- land. Such investments support the economy in the short term and are also sustainable, Tanaka pointed out. At the moment, however, the falling prices of raw materials and emissions rights are re- ducing the pressure on nations and companies to find sustainable alternatives for their supply of energy. “Low prices are encouraging waste,” says environmental expert Prof. Ernst Ulrich von Weizsäcker in an interview with Pictures of the Future . He believes that some countries are now approaching the matter with reduced ur- gency. “However,” he adds, “the Chinese are on their toes, and they’ve made energy efficiency a national objective.” In the U.S., too, the new Administration is rethinking environmental issues. President Barack Obama wants to become a global leader in the reduction of greenhouse gases. His “New Energy for America” plan intends to put a mil- lion hybrid cars on American roads by 2015 and ensure that the United States gets one fourth of its electricity from renewable sources by 2025. A good ten percent of the U.S. gov- ernment’s stimulus package — in other words, around $83 billion — will be invested in the ex- pansion and modernization of the country’s energy infrastructure. In addition, a national emissions trading system will help cut the U.S.’s greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent by 2050 (for more, see page 102). In terms of private investment, in the first three quarters of 2008 alone, American ven- ture capital firms invested $4.3 billion in clean technology companies. And with investments in the fields of renewable energy and energy efficiency expected to reach $150 billion over the next ten years, at least five million green collar jobs are expected to be created in these and other areas. All of this makes a great deal of economic sense because these measures will reduce de- pendence on energy imports and cut associ- ated costs by several billion dollars per year — steps that will pay ever-increasing dividends as the world economy regains momentum and oil prices resume their ascent.Christian Buck | Interview Professor Ottmar Eden- hofer, 47, studied eco- nomics and philosophy and is deputy director and chief economist of the Potsdam Institute for Cli- mate Impact Research. He is also professor for the Economics of Climate Change at Berlin Technical University. Since Septem- ber 2008, he has been one of the chairmen of the In- tergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For the next seven years, he will lead Working Group III of the IPCC, which deals with measures to stem cli- mate change. Professor Edenhofer is particularly interested in the influence of technological change on the costs and strategies of climate protection, and on the political instru- ments that are used to shape climate-protection and energy policy. Why Climate Protection Isn’t Optional We’re currently struggling with two crises at once —— the economic crisis and the climate crisis. Is that just a coincidence, or do you see parallels? Edenhofer:There definitely is a parallel. Both are crises of sustainability. Sustainability can be formulated as an imperative: Act in such a way that you don’t destroy the foundations that enable you to act in the long run! In the financial crisis, the banking sector destroyed the foundation of its own business. Were people too greedy? Edenhofer:Maybe, but a more important fac- tor was that the banking sector worldwide was improperly regulated, so that it wasn’t possible to stop the greed. The emphasis on share- holder value made investors focus on short- term results. For the U.S., in particular, there was the added problem that the Federal Re- serve Bank — through its cheap-money policy — essentially transferred the dot-com bubble to the mortgage bubble. All of that destroyed the foundations of the economy. And in the climate crisis, we’re in the midst of destroying the foundations of our existence. Is human short-sightedness the source of both crises? Edenhofer:I think it would be more correct to call it institutional short-sightedness. The sys- tem doesn’t permit any longer-term horizons — that’s the crucial point. Every manager has to satisfy the demands of the capital market and his or her shareholders. I think it’s naive to believe the problem can be cured just by ap- pealing to people’s sense of ethics. Policy-makers want a new regulatory framework for the global financial mar- ket. What regulations would they have to establish to ensure better treatment of the climate? Edenhofer:More than anything else, we need a global emissions cap and trade system with two basic prerequisites. First, an agreement among nations that emissions of greenhouse gases must be cut by 50 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. That way, there’s an 80 percent probability that global warming will be limited to two degrees Celsius. Emissions trading lim- its CO 2 where prevention is most cost-effec- 70 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 71 Pictures of the Future | Economic Crisis and Opportunities Siemens believes that investing in climate protection could promote growth. Others disagree. Is this something we can afford only when the economy is strong? Weizsäcker:That’s the impression being given now by some. This thinking has its roots in the regulation of pollutant emissions, where only the rich countries could afford environmental protection. But in the case of climate protec- tion, the problems are mostly caused by the rich. They use more energy, eat more meat and fly more. The economic crisis offers a great op- portunity to reverse this course and create jobs at the same time. In Europe and Japan, that’s already understood. Now it seems that this idea is being accepted in the U.S. as well. Professor Ernst Ulrich von Weizsäcker, 69, is a physicist and biologist. He has served as a professor at German universities, as director of the UN Center for Science and Technol- ogy in New York, as president of the Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, and as a member of the German Bundestag for the SPD. Most recently, Profes- sor von Weizsäcker was dean of the Donald Bren School for Environmental Science and Management at the University of California in Santa Barbara. He is considered a leading force behind the concept of sustainable development. Why Increased Efficiency Will Lead to a More Advanced Civilization tive. Second, we also need a concept of fair- ness. We have to distribute emissions rights among countries in an evenhanded way. In my view, a fair proposal has been made in this re- gard. By 2050, the rights should be redistrib- uted in such a way that every person on earth has the same right to emissions — for exam- ple, two tons per person per year. Will developing countries accept that? After all, up to this point, pollution has been caused mostly by the rich countries — at the rate of 19 tons per person per year in the U.S. and eight tons in the EU. China is at two to three tons already, and India is at 1.5 tons per person. Edenhofer:There will continue to be consid- erable conflict and disagreement about the al- location, because the developing countries also want to take historical emissions into ac- count. What is more important, though, is that we agree that we have only a limited amount of capacity in the atmosphere for more CO 2 , and it has to be allocated reasonably fairly. Af- ter that, we have to achieve a carbon-free global economy. If we develop the innovations needed for that, we can also resolve the alloca- tion conflict much more easily. Does that mean that we will have to start living more modestly? Edenhofer:Only if economic growth cannot be decoupled from emissions. For decoupling to occur, however, pricing mechanisms will have to set the right incentives — which is what emissions trading is designed to do. No new moderation, in other words? Edenhofer:No one should be prevented from exercising more moderation. But I think that the global economy can continue to grow at a rate of two to three percent per year, because there is no reason why economies should be dependent on increased energy use to grow. In the last 150 years, labor productivity has risen faster than energy productivity. Now we have to reverse that relationship. What sort of technological progress do we need to achieve a CO 2 -free economy? Edenhofer:More energy efficiency, the cap- ture and storage of CO 2 , the promotion of re- newable energies, a moderate expansion of nuclear energy, and the development of more advanced nuclear power plants. That sounds like a huge economic stimu- lus plan. Do you think we can extricate ourselves from the economic crisis through climate protection investments? Edenhofer:We could indeed, yes. What is im- portant is that we now boost the economy with investments that also make sense for the long term. That’s why we need an emissions trading system that sends a clear price signal for CO 2 — a signal for every sector that pro- duces greenhouse gases; not just the electric- ity sector and energy-intensive industries, but above all buildings and cars. There are many options here that don’t cost anything and actu- ally generate revenue through energy savings. Is emissions trading working in the areas where it is already established? Edenhofer:We’re not in bad shape in that re- gard. Emissions will surely fall in the electrical power sector. But there is a sustainability prob- lem here too. Investors need a signal that emissions have to continue to fall after 2020. That, in my view, is the responsibility of the cli- mate conference in Copenhagen (Denmark) in December 2009. The climate protection discussion involves concepts similar to those in the financial sector, such as certificates, for example. Are these systems similar in structure? Edenhofer:Yes. At some point, we will also need a central bank for climate protection. Such an institution would regulate the market for CO 2 certificates and prevent speculative bubbles. That’s similar to what a central bank does in the financial sector. In terms of global emissions trading, the U.S., together with Europe, could take the lead in creating a trans- Atlantic carbon market of the kind proposed by the EU in January 2009. The prospects for this are good. This would be a signal to India, China, and others. We need to involve these large emerging economies because they can limit CO 2 emissions much more cost-effectively than the West can, where most power plants already meet a high standard of efficiency. How can the BRIC nations be persuaded to take part in this? After all, they still have a lot of catching up to do economi- cally. Edenhofer:China and India are well aware that, in the future, they will not only be the largest sources of emissions, but will also be the ones who suffer most from climate change. Many of their largest cities are located on the coasts, where a rise in sea levels could be very dangerous. In addition, these countries need new technologies to cope with their heavy dependence on coal. In this connection, we’re right in the midst of a global renaissance of coal. In light of that, it should be possible to put together a good package — with power plants that capture CO 2 , which is then stored, for example. As a member of the IPCC, you have first hand experience with global climate protection politics. Is it realistic to think that the community of nations will agree on an effective plan? Edenhofer:We cannot afford a catastrophe. If it becomes possible to see and feel climate change, it will be too late. In the next ten years, we must create an agreement that com- prises at least the six countries that produce the most greenhouse gas emissions. Maybe the chances of developing a sensible response aren’t very high. But when we are confronted by historic challenges, we should ask not about probabilities, but about necessities. In short, climate protection isn’t optional... Edenhofer:Exactly. Anyone who claims it is doesn’t understand the fundamentals of eco- nomics. That would be like saying we want to have a market economy, but prices will be al- lowed to express the scarcity of goods only when it’s convenient. That kind of thinking led to the collapse of the Soviet economy, where there was always a reason to continue with subsidies. Because of the long-term distortion of prices, the system was doomed to fail. The ability of our atmosphere to store CO 2 is also a limited asset. Environmental protection is therefore not optional; it’s about implementing price systems that express a very real scarcity. Interview by Christian Buck. times more energy efficient with simple meas- ures. But as long as energy is cheap, that does- n’t happen. We could make energy more ex- pensive in small steps through taxes or emissions certificates, in parallel with increas- ing energy efficiency. That’s fair in social terms and makes efficiency more profitable. Investors could make long-term plans. Habits will change, possibly even our relationship to the automobile. There might be more car-sharing instead of ownership, for example. Raw materials’ prices are falling because of the crisis. Couldn’t that cause countries such as China to become less concerned with energy efficiency? Do you expect the U.S. to take a leading role in climate protection? Weizsäcker:Obama can’t change the U.S. overnight. But the country is more receptive to climate protection than commonly thought. Some states have been involved for years, and many companies are far ahead of the politi- cians, too. Now the federal government is fol- lowing suit. Obama’s rescue plan for the auto industry puts a lot of emphasis on the environ- ment. That’s a big step in the right direction. Why does Europe have an edge here? Weizsäcker:In Europe, people earn a good liv- ing from environmental protection and energy efficiency. That’s where the future lies, in my view; that’s becoming the rhythm of technolog- ical progress. Energy and water are scarce. We should learn to use both three times, five times, ten times more efficiently, and especially the end user. Then it’s fine if energy and water get more expensive. Japan showed how to do this in the ‘80s, when electricity and gasoline were very expensive. After its modernization programs, the country was twice as efficient as Australia or the U.S. at the time of the Kyoto Conference in 1997, providing twice as much prosperity per kilowatt-hour. Is higher energy efficiency the key in the fight against climate change? Weizsäcker: Yes. Today, we can conjure up ten times more light from a kilowatt-hour than just a few years ago. Buildings can be kept warm with a tenth of the heating energy used back then. The whole country could become five Weizsäcker:Yes, low prices are encouraging waste again. But the Chinese are on their toes, and they’ve made energy efficiency a national objective in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan. How do you rate the economic stimulus programs as they relate to climate protec- tion? Weizsäcker:The German government and the U.S. are acting pretty sensibly. The focus is on rescuing the credit institutions. At the same time, Obama is pushing the auto industry to- ward more efficiency, and he wants to spend billions on renewable energies. Environmental considerations can help overcome the disorien- tation of the economy. Are you optimistic about the future? Weizsäcker:We’ll manage, assuming that key countries, such as the U.S. and China, have the courage to adopt a climate-friendly course. I believe that we’re moving toward a new, long- term Kondratiev wave — with a paradigm shift toward more energy efficiency and the associ- ated innovations and investments. I like to compare our current infrastructure and prod- ucts with the dinosaurs. Our cars, houses and appliances are wasteful and outdated. The coming society will be more efficient and more elegant than today’s. In that society, for exam- ple, people will use computers that don’t waste energy and are as efficient as the hu- man brain. That won’t entail a drop in the quality of life. On the contrary, I see us enter- ing a new epoch of advanced civilization. Interview by Christian Buck. | Interview China’s Yuhuan power plant has achieved record efficiency using Siemens turbines. 78 Innovations Tailored for China Siemens is developing innovations in China that are simple, affordable, reliable and tailored to local needs. They range from traffic monitoring via mobile radio to combinations of traditional Chinese and Western medicine. 83 Affordable Vision Intelligent vision systems from Siemens provide economical, automated quality control in the production and processing of cookies, cigarettes, grains of rice and auto parts. They are also helping to reduce the cost of medical imaging systems. 84 Reflecting on Simple Things An interview with Rajendra K. Pachauri, holder of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize and Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, on India’s path to environmental protection. 88 Sweet Savings Millions of cars in Brazil run on al- cohol from sugar cane. Intelligent innovations from Siemens help to save energy during its production. 92 Light for Lake Victoria Osram is offering fishermen energy-saving lamps as an alternative to dirty and dangerous kerosene lamps. The new lamps can be recharged cheaply at solar-powered Energy Hubs. Highlights 2025 Within a decade, many of today’s poorest villages will be on the road to a higher standard of living. The reason: Affordable, carbon-neutral technologies for local energy generation, water purification, lighting and communications. Such services will extend productive hours and improve health. Here, a group of students use new software to simulate ways of making their village more energy efficient. 72 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 73 2025. In a small, energy-independent village in rural southern India, high school students get a chance to test a new interactive program that allows them to discover how even minor changes affect their village’s energy economy — thus helping it to earn carbon credits. Goddess of Wisdom Innovations for New Markets | Scenario 2025 I guess I got bitten by the energy efficiency bug when I was just a little girl of seven. I still remember the day. It was November and the rain had finally stopped. A big truck rolled down the dirt road to our village. It backed into a small clearing in our palm forest and un- loaded a huge, box-like machine. Before he drove away, the driver shouted playfully at all the kids that the machine would turn coconut shells into electricity and make us rich. It sounded like magic. I couldn’t wait to find out how it could do that. Until then, we had quite literally lived in the dark — at least Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 75 In India, Siemens subsidiary Osram and the Energy and Resources Institute provide battery-powered lamps for less than the cost of kerosene. The lamps are recharged at solar charging stations. trary, our research shows that between now and 2025, the annual purchasing power of the 650 million poorest people in India will triple to over one trillion dollars.” Lanterns that Change Lives. “It is a tragic sit- uation that in this day and age people are living literally in darkness,” says Dr. Rajendra K. Pachauri (page 84), Chairman of the U.N. inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change and Di- rector-General of The Energy and Resources In- stitute in New Delhi. “In view of this, my institute has launched a program called Light- ing a Billion Lives in which Siemens is involved through its Osram subsidiary. Here, we are ad- dressing the problem of the 1.6 billion people around the world who have no access to grid electricity.” The program, he explains, has de- veloped a solar lantern and solar-powered vil- lage charging station where people can drop off their lamps for charging during the day and rent them for a few pennies per night. “The lanterns offer enormous benefits because they allow people to work or study after dark, thus contributing to the economic welfare of their villages,” says Pachauri. Not only is light coming to many of the world’s off-grid villages. Power is on the way as well. Engineers at Siemens Corporate Technol- ogy’s (CT) Renewable Energy Innovation Center in Bangalore, India are developing what amounts to a portable power plant. Already op- erating so efficiently that it meets U.S. emis- sion requirements, the plant needs about 35 kg of coconut shells per hour to generate enough electricity for a typical Indian village of 50 to 100 families. “Our partial oxidation combustion process produces a hydrogen and carbon monoxide gas that is fed into a reciprocating internal combustion engine that generates 25 phones in Kenya (page 92), and from software developed in China that can analyze an entire city’s traffic status (page 78) to a turbine de- signed specifically for the combustion of gas produced by a Brazilian sugarcane biomass fa- cility (page 88). What’s more, by providing technologies that help developing economies and low-income people around the world to bootstrap them- selves into a more productive future, Siemens is tapping what groundbreaking author C. K. Prahalad called ‘The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid.’ “Every major company is develop- ing strategies for satisfying the needs of those at the bottom of the pyramid,” says Dr. B. Bowonder, Dean of the Tata Management Training Center in Pune, India and a world- renowned expert on technology and innova- tion management. “These people are not to be dismissed because they are poor. On the con- Siemens is testing new technologies that will help developing economies and their poorest citizens boot- strap themselves into a more productive future. On tap are generators that will turn coconut shells into electricity, self-powered sewage treatment plants that will turn effluent into fresh water, and a vision of tomorrow that will turn reliable and affordable products into stepping stones to a better life. 74 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 | Trends C an you hear the heartbeat of an unborn child in a village that has no electricity? Can a family light a room even if the cost of diesel fuel for a lamp becomes unaffordable? Or filter its water to ensure that it is free of ar- senic? Is it possible to develop cameras so so- phisticated and inexpensive that even small companies in developing countries can afford to automate quality control? Or to develop medical diagnostic equipment that almost any hospital can afford? Absolutely. These, and dozens of other solutions that broadly fit Siemens’ “simple, maintenance- friendly, affordable, reliable, and timely-to- market” (SMART) definition, are now in the company’s innovation pipeline. They range from an image processing module for an X-ray system that will be 75 percent cheaper than its predecessor (page 87) to solar-powered “en- ergy hubs” for charging lanterns and cell Tapping New Sources of Hope 74 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 after the sun went down. My father was one of the men who volunteered to be trained to op- erate and maintain the machine, which, as I quickly learned, did indeed turn coconut shells into electricity, but by very unmagically inciner- ating them into a gas that could be burned by an engine. Often, after school, I would think about what my teachers were saying about the ma- chine — that thanks to the power it generated for lights and tools, people were using the evening hours to study or to make things. That fewer babies would be born. That fewer people would move away to the cities. That… well, that was 10 years ago. Today, everything is different. In fact, to give you an idea of just how much things have changed, a few weeks ago our village got an- other kind of generator. But instead of arriving on the back of a truck, this one came in as a free download; and instead of producing elec- tricity, the new one may generate ideas that help us to save electricity and manage our re- sources more efficiently. Yes! Imagine, it allows us to see how a change in one part of our en- ergy and resources ecosystem might affect other parts of the system. Our village leader, Dr. Advani, calls it our Saraswathi — the Hindu Goddess of wisdom and learning. He says the new software will probably help make our vil- lage more successful in terms of selling carbon credits. The software takes a high-definition 3D satellite image of our village and augments it with real-time, geographically-registered infor- mation from hundreds of tiny, inexpensive SIM card-equipped power consumption sensors that all machines are equipped with — some- thing the government mandated years ago to help everyone track and reduce the amount of energy they use. This morning, Dr. Advani joined our class to find out what people my age — I’m 17 — would do to make our village more efficient. We have a large display pulpit in our classroom and for a while everyone squinted at the little red bubbles showing energy inputs and out- puts next to different systems. We watched with fascination as the stream of dried waste represented in grams per minute on the display — actually clean-burning coconut shells from our warehouse — was fed into the generator by an electrically-powered conveyor belt. The generator produces a maximum of 500 kW — more than enough for the couple of hundred households in our village. In fact, Dr. Advani says that a lot of our power is sold to the smart grid and that thousands of villages like ours, each contributing what it can, have replaced several coal-power plants. As we watched the big display, we could see the power levels and locations of several small robotic collector vehicles as they scoured the floor of our palm forest for coconuts, as well as the locations of a dozen Bonnet macaque mon- keys equipped with GPS neck collars. The mon- keys are trained to shake the big nuts out of the trees, break them open, and separate the shells for processing. As the vehicles’ batteries reached given levels, we could see them re- turning toward the warehouse where they would unload and recharge. The big display also showed the status and output of dozens of other efficiency-enhancing systems in our small village — everything from the power demand of an electric pump that supplies fresh, charcoal-filtered water from our rainwater-collection cistern to the flow in our water pressure-powered sewage treatment plant that uses specially-engineered bacteria to eliminate 99 percent of organic substances. I guess I must have looked pretty impressed by all of this, because after a few moments Dr. Advani turned his deep black eyes on me like a spotlight and said, “Well, Ms Agamya, you seem to be taking this very seriously. Do you have any thoughts on how we might improve our energy efficiency?” “Sir, our street lights burn all night even though most of us are asleep,” I said as I touched the representation of a solar-powered street lamp on the screen, causing a red bubble to appear beside it showing ‘100 W.’ “But in the mornings, when the street lights would be very helpful, they are out of power. As a result, peo- ple charge batteries for flashlights several times per week.” I touched a few houses on the screen, and in each case a short list of “Appli- ances in use” appeared. Most included “Electric Torch Charging” with an indication of the power being drawn. “If most of these could be switched off,” I continued as I marked the menu item and opened a navigation command that said ‘Switch off All’ “then our generator would save something in the neighborhood of,” I looked up at the image of the generator, where a red bubble had appeared and pointed to the number, “2.5 kilowatt-hours, which of course could be sold to the grid.” “Very elegant, Ms. Agamya,” answered Ad- vani, “but what would get people to turn off most of those chargers?” “Simple,” I said, “just add movement sensors to the streetlights. That way they would be off most of the time and would still have plenty of power on dark morn- ings. And by the way,” I added, “if we can store three hours of unused energy from each of our 60 or so street lights, that should save even more — 18 kWh per night to be exact.” Arthur F. Pease Innovations for New Markets | Scenario 2025 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 77 world’s poorest people are now taking shape. But there’s more. In India, where almost 85 percent of the population has no access to medical care, the government is about to more than double its healthcare budget to almost two percent ($20 billion) of GDP. And technolo- gies designed to improve basic healthcare serv- ices are in the pipeline. For instance, with a view to ensuring a safe delivery for the 30 mil- lion babies born each year in India, thirty per- cent of whom — about 27,000 per day — are at risk, Siemens is developing a Fetal Heart Rate Monitor (FHRM) that vastly simplifies the diagnosis — and potentially accelerates the treatment — of problem pregnancies. “This will be an exciting product because there is nothing else like it on the market,” comments D. Raga- van, head of Siemens’ Healthcare Sector for In- dia, which grew by 25 percent in 2008. that’s when the device will trigger an alarm to call a doctor to the mother’s bedside,” Power Lines that Cut Carbon Emissions. Whether its consumers, manufacturers, or the public and private organizations that build and manage infrastructures, demand is growing throughout the developing world for solutions that are robust and provide long-term opera- tional savings. And across this entire spectrum, Siemens is providing solutions that meet these needs. “There is tremendous demand for sys- tems that can improve energy efficiency,” says V. V. Paranjape, who heads Siemens’ Industry Sector for India. He points out, for instance, that his organization, which employs nearly 3,500 people, is supplying the complete elec- trical systems for the new trains ordered by Mumbai’s public transit network. “Thanks to Something like a digital stethoscope, the monitor — now a functional prototype — is outfitted with sophisticated electronics and al- gorithms developed by CT India that result in an inexpensive device capable of distinguish- ing the sound of the fetal heart from the sound of the mother’s heart. Combined with a waist belt, a wireless mod- ule, an acoustic sensor and an accelerometer- based muscle-contraction sensor that is now under development, the device will offer the potential of continuous monitoring in mater- nity wards. “As a contraction comes to an end, the fetal heart rate needs to return to normal,” explains Senior Research Engineer Archana Kalyansundar, who is responsible for Siemens rural healthcare technologies for India. “If it fails to do so, that is a sign of trouble. And our regenerative breaking technology and the efficiency of our motors and control system, trains not only use as little power as possible, but can run closer to each other, thereby maxi- mizing passenger-carrying capacity,” he says. Similarly, in the electrical distribution sector, Siemens technology has made it possible to in- crease the transmission capacity of existing power lines by up to 25 percent, thus cutting transmission losses and associated CO 2 emis- sions. “Thanks to R&D in control systems and the intelligent devices that continuously moni- tor power lines, we now hold a 100 percent share of the Indian market for so-called flexible alternating current transmission systems,” says Ajay Kumar Dixit, Vice President for Siemens’ Energy Sector for South Asia and Head of Prod- uct Innovation for India. From basic services to major infrastructures, demand for improved quality and reduced prices will continue to grow. But how can even greater efficiencies be realized? One possibility is called ‘The City of the Future,’ a scenario gen- erator developed by Siemens and Singapore University. “This is the first solution anywhere in which Siemens is interactively showcasing its answers for cities,” says Klaus Heidinger, Se- nior Vice President for City Management at Siemens IT Solutions and Services in Singa- pore. “The system lets users see how services such as transportation and energy generation are linked. It’s a great way of understanding complexity — and it could be the next step in discovering the synergies that can further im- prove services while cutting costs.” Arthur F. Pease A power plant small enough to fit on the back of a truck produces enough electricity from coconut shells to power an entire village. The resulting ash can be used for water purification. 76 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 to 300 kW of electricity,” explains Peeush Ku- mar, who is responsible for energy systems de- velopment at CT India. “What is unique about our solution is that, thanks to new electrostatic precipitator technology now being developed in Munich, it will require very little cooling wa- ter. What’s more, it produces carbon ash that can be converted into activated charcoal for lo- cal water purification and can even become a significant source of revenue if sold externally.” A Corkscrew that Purifies Waste Water. If there’s one thing that is even more essential than light and power, it is clean, safe water. Here too, Siemens is developing solutions that will transform the lives of people rich and poor. In Singapore, for instance, where the company established its global headquarters for water technology R&D in 2007 and is a key player in 1000 liters for less than half a cent,” he says. Once captured, the arsenic can be precipitated from the filter and bound to cement, thus per- manently removing it from the environment. The technology will be tested in the U.S. in early 2009. Meanwhile, back in Bangalore, CT re- searchers are developing a sewage treatment system that can already remove 95% of organic substances and up to 99% of nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphates from effluent without any outside power source. “Most sewage treat- ment facilities have very high energy require- ments because they rely on powerful aerators to support the bacteria that metabolize organic matter,” explains Senior Research Engineer Dr. Anal Chavan. “But with our unique system, spe- cially-adapted microorganisms produce the oxygen themselves.” A new filter system can purify up to 1,000 liters of water for less than half a cent. the city state’s “Water Hub,” a center dedicated to developing affordable water treatment solu- tions (Pictures of the Future Fall 2008, p.39), Siemens Water Technologies (WT) is working with CT to develop new materials that can se- lectively adsorb (bind) dangerous contami- nants such as arsenic. Arsenic occurs naturally in toxic concentrations in wide areas of north- ern India, eastern Bangladesh and the south- western United States. “In view of the danger of arsenic poisoning in many parts of the world, we have developed and tested an ar- senic adsorbing particle as well as a filtration system that can capture it,” says Richard Woodling, PhD, who is in charge of technology development at WT’s global R&D center in Sin- gapore. “The system can be downsized to the needs of an individual farmer and can process Shaped something like a corkscrew, the treatment system can be powered by the force of effluent as it cascades downward, thus turn- ing the corkscrew and exposing the water to its surface area, which is colonized with bacteria. lot facility. “This is a perfect example of a SMART technology,” says Varghese. “It can be scaled up to any desired size, trucked into a vil- lage, and can, with only minimal additional treatment — possibly based on the activated Siemens researchers in Bangalore have developed an algae-based sewage treatment system that can remove up to 99% of nutrients from effluent without any outside power source. “What’s more,” adds Dr. Zubin Varghese, de- partment head for smart innovations at CT In- dia, “the same technology — but with different organisms — can be adapted to treating water contaminated with chemical or petroleum wastes.” CT India is now working with Siemens Water Technologies to identify a village for a pi- charcoal from our coconut gasification system — turn sewage water into potable water.” A Stethoscope that Recognizes Hearts. Light, energy, clean water — the technological building blocks for affordably offering these in- dispensables to hundreds of millions of the Innovations for New Markets | Trends Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 79 China is increasingly becoming a center of research and development. As it does so, it is coming up with entirely new solutions that reflect its specific needs. Siemens is systematically harvesting this tremendous potential for innovation. 78 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Innovations for New Markets | China Siemens’ Chinese research team concentrates on low-maintenance technologies that are optimally conceived for the Chinese market. Remote condition diagnostics for wind power systems (photos) is an example. pensive mix of manpower and sophisticated technology. To monitor the turbines, critical components are equipped with motion sensors, e.g. vibration sensors, that register irregularities and immediately notify a control center should they occur. In addition to accounting for several percentage points of the total cost of building a wind turbine, such technology requires that a team of highly skilled engineers evaluate oper- ating data. On top of that, the sensors them- selves need to be maintained. “Turbine manufacturers are very concerned about this problem,” says Xing. “Wind park op- erators are not only demanding very reliable systems with long warranty periods; they also want their wind parks to cost less in terms of maintenance, and they expect to be able to manage with personnel who have far less train- ing than their Western counterparts.” As Xing W hen Xing Jianhui recently read that China plans to increase its wind energy capacity ten-fold to 100 gigawatts by 2020, his thoughts turned not only to the many thou- sands of wind turbines that would soon be spinning on the North China steppe, but also to the extensive maintenance efforts the ma- chines would one day require. “Thinking like that is part of my job,” says Xing, who has a PhD in engineering and works as a developer for the Automation and Switch- ing Division at Siemens Corporate Technology China in Beijing. “After all, even the best sys- tems eventually suffer from wear and tear.” And in the case of wind turbines, which are continuously exposed to the elements, strain on materials and the resulting need for mainte- nance work is particularly great. “If a turbine suddenly breaks down, the cost of deploying a ently from the way in which they are supposed to, the currents will show different patterns,” explains Xing. “The measurements are so pre- cise that we can create algorithms that target the wear and tear of individual components and make it recognizable.” Doing so has made ex- pensive motion sensors superfluous while at the same time improving functionality. That’s because changes in currents allow wear and tear to be detected earlier than was previously the case, and the software provides operators with specific information regarding which part has to be replaced, and when. As a result, maintenance and personnel costs can be substantially reduced, while capacity utilization and profitability can be markedly increased. “The manufacturers were surprised to see how simple the solution is,” says Xing. Siemens signed a letter of intent with Goldwind, a major repair crane alone can easily amount to €10,000,” explains Xing. That’s why the tur- bines must be continuously monitored. But how is that possible, given the size of Chinese wind parks, which consist of hundreds or even thousands of turbines at remote locations in the countryside? Minimizing Maintenance. The Chinese aren’t the first people in the world to have tackled this problem, of course. Since the early days of wind turbines, maintenance has always been among the biggest challenges faced by operators. That’s because it is essential to ensuring that wind energy can be used cost-effectively. Until recently, however, maintenance involved an ex- and his colleagues became aware of this situa- tion, they began to look for a technology that would be better adapted to China’s needs. They eventually found the solution right next to the parts that are subject to wear and tear — in the motor of the pitch system, which controls the angle of the rotor blades. Siemens wind turbines do not use conven- tional motion sensors to monitor these critical components. Instead, highly sensitive sensors from the Simotion series are used. The electric voltages that these measure as a matter of course actually contain all of the information that the engineers require. “The system meas- ures the electric currents flowing into the mo- tors. If parts of the pitch system move differ- Chinese turbine manufacturer, for a trial use project in the Xinjiang province, where the first wind turbines to be equipped with the new technology will be put into operation this year. In view of the pace of development in China, it won’t take long before the system is employed on a large scale. SMART Researchers. Achieving this feat will not only be a breakthrough for the wind energy sector, but also for Siemens, because the new condition monitoring technology is one of the first innovations the company has developed in China for China. This did not happen by chance, however. Instead, it is part of Siemens’ new de- velopment strategy, which is summarized by Innovations Tailored to China’s Needs Innovations for New Markets | China Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 8180 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Traditional Chinese Medicine Meets Western Technology Doctors intend to combine the advantages of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) with those of Western science. To do so, new approaches to medical technology are needed. A special research team assembled by Siemens in Bei- jing is taking on the challenge. “Doctors have indecipherable handwriting,” says Han Bin. And he knows what he’s talking about. As a pro- fessor at the Beijing Academy for Chinese Medicine and one of the city’s leading acupuncture specialists, Han’s expertise is constantly in demand not only at the university hospital, but at other health centers as well. But no matter where he goes, Han encounters patient files that are impossible to understand. “Chi- nese medicine is thousands of years old and requires doctors to make very detailed examinations of clini- cal pictures and use complex recipes and formulas,” he explains. “The work involved in documenting all of this is immense.” The fact that many of his col- leagues hardly take the time to do so not only makes us the opportunity to determine if this is the case and to combine the best features of both traditions.” Wu and her colleagues have enhanced the features of Siemens’ magnetic resonance scanners, for exam- ple, so that they can be used to visualize acupotomy procedures in a targeted manner. A treatment devel- oped recently from acupuncture, acupotomy is used to treat illnesses of the locomotory system, for ex- ample, including chronic pain, slipped discs, and arthrosis. The technique involves the use of needle scalpels to make small incisions in muscles and ten- dons in order to restore a patient’s bio-mechanical balance. In Western medicine such cases are gener- ally treated with painkillers and surgical procedures, some of which call for removing parts of a disc. Acupotomy, on the other hand, is only a minor, mi- cro-surgical procedure — with clinically proven ef- fectiveness. Until now, doctors practicing this tech- nique have relied on their experience and their “feel” for the treatment at hand. In some cases this has un- our medicine on a more sound scientific footing; it will also allow us to precisely study how Chinese and Western treatment methods interact.” It is exactly in this interaction that many medical ex- perts see great potential for gaining new insights. Even though TCM and Western medicine have little common ground, scientists from all over the world are increasingly coming to the conclusion that both approaches can benefit considerably from each other. As a result, the development of the TCM hos- pital software is only one of many projects Siemens is using to help promote progress in this area. “Doc- tors can only create links between the two ap- proaches if medical technology does the same,” says Xu Xiaodong, who heads a six-person team at Siemens Corporate Technology in Beijing that coor- dinates projects for merging Western and Chinese medicine. The team consists of engineers, computer scientists, and medical practitioners. “You often hear claims that Chinese medicine is unscientific,” says Wu Changsheng, a doctor who earned her M.D. at the Beijing Academy for Chinese Medicine and now works on Xu’s team. “Modern technology is giving fortunately resulted in severed or damaged blood vessels and nerves. But using an MR scanner in such instances can provide doctors with valuable naviga- tional assistance. State-of-the-art imaging systems like these are thus making traditional Chinese medi- cine safer, and also increasing the likelihood that such techniques can be successful in Western coun- tries. “High-resolution MR images will enable us to better investigate and improve acupotomy,” says Wu. “It will also have a big impact on how doctors are trained.” A number of other developments are already in the pipeline. “China’s government has declared the link- ing of Western and traditional medicine to be one of the country’s key areas of research,” says Xu. “This gives us an opportunity to collaborate with leading Chinese research institutes.” Such institutes have high expectations when it comes to working with Siemens. “We are now in the midst of one of the most exciting periods in medical history,” says Pro- fessor Han Bin. “So it is only natural for leading or- ganizations in this field to pool their resources.” Bernhard Bartsch treatment more difficult; it also obstructs research. “Many valuable insights are lost as a result,” says Han. Help may soon be on the way, however. For a year now, Han has been testing the first fully-integrated hospital information system (HIS) for TCM. The pro- gram, which was developed by Siemens in Beijing, provides TCM doctors with the same kind of com- puter-based support for their work that has long been enjoyed by doctors practicing Western medi- cine. The system comes with a database that en- ables a quick description of symptoms. At the click of a mouse, users can enter acupuncture points on a three-dimensional depiction of the human body or put together herb mixtures. The system automati- cally produces an alarm if the doctor’s choices could lead to unwanted interactions. “This is a big advance for TCM,” says Han. “Although many Chinese doctors are not yet used to working with computers, the pro- gram is very easy to use.” The TCM module will soon be integrated into the Chinese version of Siemens’ hospital information system. “I expect it to be a big help for researchers,” says Han. “Not only will it put the acronym “SMART,” which stands for simple, maintenance-friendly, affordable, reliable, and timely to market. Although this development maxim does not apply exclusively to China, there aren’t many other countries where high-tech companies like Siemens have a better opportunity to rethink tried-and-tested solutions. “Necessity is the mother of invention — and in China this neces- sity is enormous,” says Dr. Arding Hsu, Head of Siemens Corporate Technology in China. “As a result, China’s potential is no longer extraordi- regions are still deeply mired in the pre-indus- trial age. “You only need to take your car and drive for one hour out of Beijing to see how dif- ferent the needs are within this country,” says Hsu. “Our company wants to help China’s devel- opment, so we have to adapt ourselves as best as possible to the country’s wide range of needs.” nary just as a sales market, but also as a devel- opment location.” The modernization project currently under way in China — where approximately 40,000 employees of the Siemens business units gener- ated sales of approximately €5 billion in 2008 — is probably the biggest in history. Every- where you look, from the energy sector to the transport infrastructure and the healthcare sys- tem, the country is trying to create the basis for catching up with the industrialized nations of the West. And even though its successes have long been visible, the challenges are just as ob- vious. While China’s major cities have long since ar- rived in the 21st century, most of the country’s same path as elsewhere; instead they can move in completely new directions.” This is good, given that real progress can’t be achieved by just copying known approaches. Although Hsu estimates that distinctly Chinese products and solutions make up barely more than 20 percent of the total market, he believes, unlike repre- sentatives of many Western companies, that niches for locally-developed solutions have great potential. After all, many innovations have been born because developers looked for solutions beyond mainstream areas. “In the 1970s, hardly anyone in the com- puter industry thought computers would one day be found in every household. Back then, you had to study for years at a university to day use by customers, because the market pro- vides you with the best sense of where develop- ments are headed.” Counting Cars with Cell Phones. An example of a product designed to fit a distinctively Chi- nese situation is being pursued by Qiu Wei, manager of a SMART project in the southern Chinese province of Guangdong. The project’s title, “Recording Traffic Information for Megaci- ties,” may sound mundane — and it is — until you find out how the project achieves its goal, which is anything but mundane. “China has dozens of cities with a million or more inhabitants, and handling the huge vol- ume of traffic is one of the biggest challenges in China has embarked on what might be the largest modernization project in human history. Instead of using expensive roadside tracking systems to measure traffic in China’s megacities, Qiu Wei (left) intends to use millions of cell phone signals. Despite being so obvious, this approach is still completely new to most multinational cor- porations, which until now have primarily fo- cused on supplying China with products that have been successful in other markets and are much better than anything new competitors in- side China can produce. “Such a strategy works very well in many cases,” says Hsu. “But devel- opments in China do not always follow the learn how to navigate through programs by key- board,” says Hsu, who has a PhD in computer science and was among the industry’s pioneers in Silicon Valley. “But Steve Jobs had an idea, and the rest is history.” Because it is very likely that some of the chapters in the history of technology will be written in China in the future, Siemens Corpo- rate Technology has assembled a team of around 200 developers in Beijing and Shanghai. But instead of searching for the “next big thing” in laboratories, the researchers are taking a more down-to-earth route and are focusing on how to accelerate progress in areas where it is already under way. “For instance,” says Hsu, “we are working closely with Siemens’ business units to develop customized products for every- Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 83 With roughly 1.1 billion people and an average hourly wage — including benefits — of only $1, India is not only one of the world’s biggest markets, but also one of the most price-sensitive locations to do business. Microprocessor-equipped cameras that are sim- ple, maintenance free, affordable, reliable, and timely to market (SMART) have a good chance of breaking into the Indian subcontinent’s rapidly-expanding industrial markets. Smart Cameras Affordable Vision In India, Siemens is developing low-cost vision systems and associated software that can be customized for applications ranging from medical diagnostics to quality control in production. T hroughout India, rows of cookies are marching from baking ovens at ever-in- creasing speeds. Cigarettes are zipping by at a rate of 150 per second, and production lines originally designed to stamp, squeeze or ex- trude 500 widgets per minute are routinely be- ing upgraded to achieve new throughput records. Whether its grains of rice, bakery prod- ucts, or engine parts, nearly everything Indians buy or export starts out on a production or pro- cessing line. And to an ever-increasing extent, 82 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Innovations for New Markets | China Making Imaging More Affordable Offering a complete spectrum of diagnostics for a small budget — that’s exactly the approach Siemens researcher Wang Jianmin adopted together with colleagues in Germany, England and China in order to help achieve a breakthrough for one of today’s key diagnostic technologies, magnetic resonance imag- ing (MRI). In a field where innovation mostly consists of developing ever more sophisticated diagnostic features, Wang and his colleagues chose an alternative approach: simplifying existing technology without com- promising Siemens’ key qualities and standards, in order to make MR affordable for institutions with very limited budgets. “Today, progress in medical technology not only means steadily improving the devices, but also making them available to more and more patients,” says Wang. “That is not only correct from an ethical point of view, but also from an economic one.” Wang’s words are based on his own experience. In his native country China, few hospitals can afford state-of-the-art magnetic resonance imaging equipment. And it is not only developing countries and emerging markets where the cost pressure on the medical sector is high. That’s why Wang, who stud- ied in Germany and lived there for 17 years before returning to China in 2002, was happy to join a team with an ambitious objective: to dramatically cut MR production costs. One of his goals was to make Siemens’ cutting-edge MR technology, the so called Total imaging matrix (Tim), also available for customers with budget constraints. Tim makes it possible to flexibly combine up to four different coils, which enables the user to image almost any part of the body without the need to move the patient to a different bed, or to enter new settings on the machine. Tim also makes parallel imaging possible, which leads to greatly reduced ac- quisition times. All of these benefits translate into workflow improvements as well as increased patient throughput, not to mention associated savings. As an example, a complete examination of the central nervous system using Tim technology can be performed in less than ten minutes. To achieve a significant reduction in production costs, it was necessary to find new ways of integrating components into the system. One of the most complex components in MR systems is the control sys- tem for the matrix coils. “The control of these coils is a very complicated procedure, which results in high manufacturing costs,” says Wang. “That motivated me to try to see if it might be possible to de- velop a simpler switching system for Tim systems.” With this in mind, he worked with multiple teams in Oxford, England, Shenzhen, China, and Erlangen, Germany, to develop a streamlined version of the switching system for the Tim coils. For this achievement, he received Siemens’ “Inventor of the Year 2007” Award. Other innovations that have contributed to the success of Siemens’ MR scanner, the MAGNETOM ESSENZA, help cut installation space, power requirements and associated construction costs. In part, this is due to its light weight, 3.5 ton magnet, which makes it possible for the system to be installed above the basement and first floor. What’s more, if an ESSENZA replaces an existing MR system, it can reduce energy consumption by up to 50 percent thanks to its high-performance electronics. And since the system’s state-of-the-art magnet has zero helium boil-off, there is no need to regularly refill the unit with this expensive substance, meaning that the system is always ready for operation. The ESSENZA is now in service in a number of clinical settings worldwide ranging from small hospitals to large academic institutions. Bernhard Bartsch terms of making those cities truly livable,” says Qiu. Techniques for measuring the volume of traffic were introduced a long time ago to en- sure, for example, that traffic light times could be optimally set. To make such measurements, researchers insert sensors into road surfaces or install cameras to record traffic flow. While such techniques are effective, the infrastructure they require makes them very expensive. In the future it will be much easier to chart traffic volume using small auxiliary devices that hadn’t even been thought of when the sensor plates and camera systems were initially devel- oped. Those devices are cell phones. “Today al- most every car has a cell phone that is continu- ously in contact with transmission masts,” explains Qiu. “The positioning information pro- vided by all those phones gives us all the data we need to make traffic measurements dynami- cally. And of course, the cell phone owners re- main anonymous in this process.” Undreamed of Possibilities. The principle is very simple, but it takes sophisticated software to turn the location data from hundreds of thousands of cell phones into usable informa- tion that can be employed for a practical appli- cation in real time. To conduct the project, Qiu has teamed up with a Siemens business unit to work together with cell phone service provider China Mobile. “The telephone companies are very interested in this information because it would allow them to offer new types of serv- ices,” Qiu says. For example, it may prove possible to opti- mize directions given by automotive navigation systems through mobile phone networks or to allow cell phones to serve as GPS devices. Such developments are also of interest to the adver- tising industry, which could use them in the fu- ture to transmit location-specific shopping or restaurant tips. Due to the rapidly-growing number of vehi- cles on Chinese streets, the project was put on a fast track and has developed rapidly since its in- ception in 2007. Indeed, the first marketable version of the application is scheduled to be completed this year. But that is expected to be just the beginning of a far-reaching series of innovations. “Devel- opment is a process that never ends,” says Hsu. “A product is good if it has the potential to be continuously improved.” Siemens’ develop- ments in China are not makeshift solutions for an emerging market. They are technological in- novations that will eventually be used in the most highly developed countries as well. That’s true of wind turbines and traffic measurement systems alike. If that’s not SMART, nothing is! Bernhard Bartsch major training complex, uses no power from the grid at all. A network of tunnels beneath the building ensures a constant temperature, and a solar chimney allows hot air from the south-side rooms to escape. We need a shift in direction in this country that has to translate into incentives and disincentives and, most im- portant, much greater public awareness. For instance, it should be clear to people that there is an economic benefit to them when they build an energy-efficient building. So I think we need to reorient our fiscal instru- ments such that they carry us to a state of en- vironmental sustainability. What’s the role of the Internet in this? Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 85 What can individuals do to help the environment? Pachauri:One area where I think many con- sumers can make a difference is by simply eat- ing less meat. The meat cycle is very intensive in terms of energy consumption. The Food & Agriculture Organization did a study on this. They found that the entire livestock cycle ac- counts for 18% of all greenhouse gases pro- duced on this planet. So I’ve been telling peo- ple to eat less meat. This goes hand in hand with other lifestyle changes. We need to start reflecting on the simple things — things like using lights at home. When I step out of my of- fice, as a matter of habit, I switch off the lights, even if it’s for five minutes. We should Pachauri:Fortunately, the government is working to make the Internet accessible to more and more people in India. But there are many associated problems. For instance, in ru- ral areas with no electricity, how can you run a computer? So we need a package of solutions that provide electricity, which is a precondition for the Internet. And this is again an area where a company like Siemens can get in- volved to come up with renewable energy technologies that can be used on a decentral- ized, distributed basis, thus making it possible to access the benefits of the Internet. those lines run faster than any human eye can see. Nevertheless, even as processing revs into a high-speed blur, quality levels continue to climb and prices remain steady or actually de- cline. How? Welcome to the world of the af- fordable “thinking” camera. Thanks to faster, cheaper, more powerful processors and ever-improving, locally-pro- duced, tailor-made algorithms, cameras used on an increasing number of Indian production lines to catch product imperfections are be- coming affordable and increasingly reliable. Dr. Mukul Saxena, who heads Siemens Corporate Technology (CT) in India, explains: “It is impor- tant that such products be built here in India in order to be price-competitive with products from local companies. For example, we are working with Siemens’ Industry Automation Di- vision and a local academic institute to develop a low-cost camera application that will look at the size and polish of each grain of rice as it cascades in a processing center to automati- cally quantify the quality of the product.” Adds Dr. Zubin Varghese, department head for SMART innovations at CT India, “The algo- rithms that allow camera capabilities to be tai- lored to a customer’s unique needs are also the key to keeping the price of service and up- grades as low as possible. For instance,” he ex- plains, “with regard to a major Indian cigarette manufacturer that needed to improve product quality, all that was needed was a minor modi- fication in the camera’s firmware, along with a new image processing algorithm. We per- formed these adaptations, which immediately eliminated the quality problems — and sal- vaged our relationship with the customer.” Smart Cookies. Camera technology can also help to save energy. For instance, a major In- dian biscuit manufacturer recently switched a range of its automation activities to Siemens thanks to a new algorithm from Corporate Technology that “allows a camera to see each biscuit in terms of color and thickness — two key indicators of baking process accuracy,” says Sameer Prakash, who is in charge of marketing for Siemens Automation and Drives’ Food and Beverage business in India. “Not only have quality and production throughput increased substantially as a result of this, but the camera information is fed back to the baking oven to optimize its operations — the first solution of its kind anywhere. This has resulted in a five percent cut in energy use.” In addition, he points out that “by being able to customize our intelligent camera’s ca- pabilities to the customer’s needs, we were able to differentiate our offer from those of competitors. This opened up the rest of the | Smart Cameras also encourage people to walk and use bicy- cles more. What recommendations would you give the Obama Administration? Pachauri:All I would ask President Obama to do is to live up to the promises he has made. It is not going to be easy. But if he just does what he has stated, I think the U.S. will be pretty much on its way to bringing about improve- ments at the global level and certainly for its own citizens. Interview conducted by Arthur F. Pease Researcher Swaminathan with a new medical vision system that draws on experience in surveillance systems. Mit enormen Investitionen baut Chongqing eine konkurrenzfähige Industrie auf. 84 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Dr. Rajendra K. Pachauri, 68, is the Chairman of the United Nations Intergov- ernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Represented by Dr. Pachauri and former U.S. Vice Presi- dent Al Gore, the IPCC was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for the year 2007. Since 1981, Dr. Pachauri has been Director-General of The Energy & Resources Institute (TERI), a global organization focused on environmental sustainabil- ity. Pachauri holds PhDs in Industrial Engineering and Economics. He has been a member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister of India, the Advisory Board on Energy, which reported directly to the Prime Minister, and a Senior Advisor to the Administrator of the United Nations Development Program. Reflecting on the Simple Things What are the most significant environmen- tal threats faced by India? Pachauri:We are confronted by a range of en- vironmental threats, from soil degradation and water and air pollution to deforestation and loss of biodiversity. All of these are being af- fected by climate change on an increasing scale. This set of impacts will affect every seg- ment of our economy and of our population. What is India doing about these threats? Pachauri:We have very strong legislation, a strong NGO movement, and a very active press. So it is not easy to pollute without at- tracting a lot of attention. But unfortunately, when coordinated action is required, we have in such a way that they can be applied on a large scale. The corporate sector should also work with our government on a set of policies that contribute to energy-efficient solutions. What technologies should be empha- sized? Pachauri:Renewable energy technologies have enormous potential in this country. In Delhi, my institute is working with a group of investors to develop a large-scale solar-thermal generation facility. We are talking about 3,000 to 5,000 MW. This is the kind of thing where Siemens can do a great deal. My institute has also launched a program called “Lighting a Bil- lion Lives” — in which Siemens is involved not been very successful. And to be quite hon- est, some of our enforcement mechanisms are weak, and not as effective as they should be. Many countries want to cut their CO 2 emissions below 1990 levels. Should India be working along these lines as well? Pachauri:As far as CO 2 is concerned, India does not have any goals. And legitimately, there can’t be any at this point because our per capita emissions are about 1.1 tons per person per year, compared to over 20 for the U.S. De- veloped countries are the big polluters and the ones who have caused the problem. If they don’t move, I don’t think there is any basis at all for a developing country like India, where 400 million people do not have access to elec- tricity, to reduce its emissions. It would be un- ethical and totally inequitable. It is up to the developed countries to make the first move. The emphasis in India is on reducing local pol- lution. Nevertheless, energy efficiency is in India’s best interest… Pachauri:Certainly. We have a serious prob- lem of energy shortages. And if we can use en- ergy more efficiently, then more of it becomes available for others to use. Are there ways in which a company like Siemens can help? Pachauri:Being a technology leader, Siemens can certainly make a major difference. One of the most important things such companies can do is to work with partners to ensure that tech- nologies are customized for Indian conditions through its Osram subsidiary. Here, we are try- ing to address the problem of the 1.6 billion people worldwide who have no access to elec- tricity. To help them we have developed a solar lantern and solar-powered village charging sta- tion where people can drop off their lamps for charging during the day. Where will India be in 20 years? What is your vision? Pachauri:I would like to see much greater use of renewable energy in this country because we have wind, solar, and biomass in abun- dance. I would also like to see much more R&D with a view to using agricultural residues on a large scale, perhaps converting these to liquid fuels. For instance, my institute is engaged in a large-scale project for growing jatropha for biodiesel. This plant grows under degraded land conditions, requires little moisture, and does not in any way affect food prices or dis- place food production. So my vision is to see India move rapidly toward large-scale exploita- tion of renewable energy sources, while ensur- ing that these resources are accessible to the poorest of the poor. What policies are needed to accomplish this? Pachauri:We will need fiscal incentives and disincentives. For instance, we have done a study for the Ministry of Finance on taxation of automobiles, and to an extent the government has implemented its recommendations. We now have differential taxes on small cars as opposed to big cars. In the area of energy-effi- cient buildings, my institute has been in the lead. In fact, one of our buildings, which is a Innovations for New Markets | Interview Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 87 now. Our new campuses are now under con- struction, and they will all be green. Can you make money with such a vision? Nilekani:Oh you can make tons of money with it! You may want to sell an energy man- agement system to a city. You could manage a network of IP-enabled streetlights. Today, cities are paying to light their streets all night long at full intensity, regardless of whether anyone is around. Tomorrow, they could dim their lights selectively, ensuring substantial savings. Your book suggests that a large population can be an advantage. Nilekani:My point is that India’s strength comes from its people. And to that extent, we now think of people as human capital. But the other factor is that India is now enjoying a de- mographic dividend. It is the only country that has more people in its working-age population than in either its very young- or very old-age segments. The bulk of our population is between 15 and 65, which means that the ratio of those working to those who need to be supported is very positive. For us, the next 30 years should be a demographic golden era, and we will be the only major country to have that — the only young country in an aging world. So I am not saying that it is good to have a huge popula- tion per se. I am just saying that the current demographic contours of India are strategically good. A demographic golden era? You sound bullish on India. Nilekani:Bullish may be too strong a term. But I am cautiously optimistic. Global factors are to our advantage. One such factor, as I mentioned, is demographics. Second, India has a very strongly entrepreneurial culture and one of the highest populations of entrepre- neurs anywhere. Third, it has technologies that are now seen as empowering. It has the Eng- lish language, which is the language of global business. And finally, because India is a demo- cratic society, it has no obstacles to informa- tion flow. Therefore it’s easier for us to get things right. No other country has all these things. Interview conducted by Arthur F. Pease | Smart Cameras customer’s business for us, including ovens, sensors, oxygen analyzers, controllers and hu- man-machine interfaces.” Siemens’ investments in microprocessor- based SMART camera technologies are paying some surprising dividends in the context of the world economic downturn. “Keeping in mind the new financial realities, one possible out- come is that businesses may not want to invest in new plants,” observes J. K. Verma, Vice Presi- dent for Business Development and Sales at Siemens’ Industry Automation & Drive Tech- The new cameras can even look at the size and polish of an individual grain of rice. Here, a thorough analysis of ways to improve the C-arm’s camera and image processing mod- ule has not only led to improving the system’s resolution, but also to a dramatic reduction in price. “We expect to soon transition from an OEM-produced platform that costs around $2,000 to a superior device developed by CT In- dia that we will produce locally for around $500,” says Siemens India Healthcare Sector Executive Vice President D. Ragavan. Adds Dr. Vishnu Swaminathan, head of CT India’s Embedded Hardware Systems Program, nologies Division near Mumbai. “But they are likely to invest in technologies that will improve the efficiency of their existing plants. Our inno- vative smart camera project in the biscuit busi- ness is an example of that. We can help our customers gain competitive advantage through improved productivity and also create pull for our other products.” Sharper Medical Images. Another area in which Siemens is on the road to delivering sig- nificant technological innovation through im- age processing is its C-arm interventional fluo- roscopic X-ray system, which is produced in Goa, India to meet the extremely tight price de- mands and basic needs of developing markets. which is developing the C-arm camera, “The new camera is not a cheap copy of a Western model. We redesigned everything from scratch with a view to cutting costs while meeting the specific needs of local doctors.” Drawing on experience in India’s extremely- price sensitive market for surveillance cameras, Swaminathan’s team came up with a hard- ware-software co-design. This included outfit- ting the new camera with the same inexpen- sive light conversion technology used in most digital cameras, but bolstering it with addi- tional image processing technology. Meanwhile, to achieve improved resolution, the researchers opted for a digital video inter- face instead of an analog one. “The result is Split-second inspection: In India, a camera system from Siemens monitors the production of engines for the Tata Nano, whose price of $2,500 makes it the world's most affordable car. But it has to be high-quality too. Mit enormen Investitionen baut Chongqing eine konkurrenzfähige Industrie auf. 86 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 As co-chairman and co- founder of Infosys Tech- nologies Limited, which had $4 billion in informa- tion technology sales and over 100,000 employees in 2008, Dr. Nandan Nilekani, 54, has been a key player in India’s eco- nomic rebirth. Named by Time magazine in 2006 as one of the 100 most influ- ential people in the world and by Forbes Asia in 2006 as “Businessman of the Year,” Dr. Nilekani, is a member of the World Eco- nomic Forum Foundation Board, a member of the Board of Directors of the Peterson Institute for Inter- national Economics, and a member of the Board of Governors of the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT). He is also the author of a new book, Imagining India, Ideas for the New Century . Imagining India’s Future How have information technologies changed India? Nilekani:Thirty to 40 years back, IT was seen as a job killer. Today it is seen as empowering and transformational. Mobile phones are an example. Ninety percent of them in India are prepaid, and most are used by people who earn less than $2000 per year. Information technology has transformed many key parts of our economy. For example, our stock markets are today among the most modern because we have used technology effectively. And India is the only large country in which all votes — over 400 million in a general election — are cast electronically. Nilekani:Yes. But we will need a new ecosys- tem — batteries that can be replaced at a mo- ment’s notice, charging stations, electric cars, and a de-carbonized electricity grid, which means getting the grid to be smart, and then creating thousands of renewable generators. Once your electricity is de-carbonized, you can start introducing electric or hybrid vehicles; and added power can be generated from sec- ond-generation biofuels based on non-food, agricultural wastes. If you build a smart grid and de-carbonize energy production, you are solving multiple problems. You reduce carbon dioxide emis- sions, you create a whole new economy where What are the major areas in which information technology will play a role in India’s future? Nilekani:Healthcare and energy distribution — two areas in which Siemens is in a strategic position to provide solutions. In healthcare, I believe there will be a new paradigm charac- terized by a hub-and-spoke configuration. Through advanced information technology we can bring excellent diagnostics out to the tip of the spoke — the point of care. Non-specialized workers can deliver much better service by be- ing able to access an information hub — a sys- tem, for instance, such as ReMeDe or Remote Medical Diagnostics now being piloted in parts of India. The system combines low-bandwidth video/audio conferencing with a network of clinics and pharmacies and could be combined with portable medical records. In the energy generation and distribution sector, the paradigm will be just the opposite. For instance, instead of building, say, one 500 MW coal plant, it might be better to invest in 500 one-MW solar, biomass, biogas, or wind plants. But the moment the grid starts to de- pend on generators whose energy production is based on natural phenomena, it has to be smart enough to cope with uncertainty. Infor- mation technology is the key to this. What is happening today in power generation is just like what happened in computing when we evolved from the mainframe to the PC. I think that paradigm sums up our energy future. Do you also see IT playing a role in the re- lationship between mobility and smart grids? every village has its own micro grid with its own biofuels plant, its own solar plant, and its own turbines. And all of this creates jobs and spreads economic wealth. What is your company doing for the environment? Nilekani:Here at Infosys, we are in the process of making our new buildings as green and sustainable as possible. We are looking at dramatically reducing energy consumption. We are working on passive buildings, systems for piping lighting through buildings, and us- ing more natural lighting. We are also investing in biodiversity. We are planting a wide range of species on our cam- puses — essentially giving a new meaning to the term ‘business park’! And we are investing in rain water harvesting, and water reuse and recycling with a view to deriving much of our water from rain rather than having to tap into water systems. Another energy-saving concept that we are now implementing at one of our campuses is to network the street lights by giving each light its own IP address. This allows them to respond appropriately to local lighting needs, yet in a coordinated fashion. Imagine, for instance, that the lights would brighten and then dim as you drive or walk down a street. That’s the idea. There is no rea- son to have all the lights go on or off at a spe- cific time, regardless of ambient lighting condi- tions. That’s dumb. The point I’m making is that the smarter we get, the more we can fine tune the granularity of our efficiency. And the time frame for this is Innovations for New Markets | Interview Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 89 fuel is made from sugar cane — and the amount of CO 2 released when it is burned is equivalent to the amount absorbed through photosynthesis before harvesting. “Ethanol already accounts for 50 percent of the fuel burned in motor vehicles in Brazil,” says Costa, “and this proportion is about to in- crease further.” One factor that makes the fuel attractive is the fact that the energy stored in ethanol ultimately comes from the sun. Still, people sometimes forget that the production of ethanol also requires energy, but that much of this energy can eventually be gained from the sugar cane as well. Use of more efficient processes can minimize the amount of energy needed here, however, and technology from Siemens is helping to do just that. “When Brazil launched its ethanol program in 1975, the sugar mills that produced the alco- hol would just burn the fibrous residue of the crushed sugar cane stalks behind their plants,” Costa recalls. “But this material — the bagasse — also contains a lot of energy.” That’s why biomass power plants with outputs ranging be- tween 25 and 70 MW now use bagasse to gen- ciency — a key consideration because competi- tion in the industry has become much more in- tense over the last few years. What’s more, the precipitous drop in crude oil prices in recent months has made it all the more difficult to produce competitively-priced ethanol made from sugar cane. “But,” says Electricity and steam for the refining processes are provided by sugar cane-fired biomass power plants. around 30 percent lower than the original model, making it more affordable for sugar mills throughout Brazil. For example, the de- sign of the extraction valve was modified in or- der to reach higher pressures of up to 32 bar. And the unit’s compact size substantially re- duces costs. Sugar cane is converted into ethanol in Brazil’s distilleries. To increase the energy efficiency of the process, the residues of crushed stalks are used to generate power using Siemens turbines (above). Such benefits appeal to Marcos Monaco, in- dustrial director of the Usina Santa Cruz sugar mill. “Our decision to buy the turbines from Siemens was based on the performance and availability of the equipment, which met our project specifications and conditions to the ex- tent that we ordered three units,” he says. Usina Santa Cruz is one of 25 major sugar mills that operate in Brazil. Usina’s high production volume (some four million tons of sugar cane are processed after each harvest) ensures a considerable competitive edge in terms of effi- Costa, “by improving our efficiency, Siemens’ turbines are helping us survive in this challeng- ing environment.” Word has gotten around about the advan- tages offered by the turbines, which is why they are now being installed in other Latin American countries, including Peru, Argentina, Colombia, and Mexico. This new development ensures that even more energy from the sun will now find its way into automobile fuel tanks. Andreas Kleinschmidt Around 40 percent of motor vehicles in Brazil now run on alcohol made from sugar cane. And this figure could rise to 60 percent over the next five years, which would reduce oil depend- ence and the burden on the environment. Siemens is doing its part by providing technology that saves energy when converting sugar into fuel. 88 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Innovations for New Markets | Brazil M ost people in the southern Brazilian me- tropolis of São Paulo hardly even notice the smog that covers their city every day. The haze seems to belong to São Paulo the way samba belongs to Brazil. But Paulo Costa, who works in Jundiai, some 60 km north of São Paulo, as a sales and marketing manager for Siemens Industrial Steam Turbines, isn’t willing to get used to the pollution. When Costa travels to the city, he helps to ensure that the smog doesn’t increase — by driving a flex-fuel vehi- cle, which he switched to several years ago. Numerous studies suggest that such cars emit fewer pollutants than conventional gasoline- powered vehicles. “If the millions of cars creeping along the city’s highways every day were all burning gaso- line,the air quality in São Paulo would likely be far worse,” says Costa. More and more Brazilians are now switching to highly efficient flex-fuel vehicles that run on a mixture of alcohol and gasoline. Some of these cars can even be driven on pure ethanol, which costs less than gaso- line. The CO 2 balance of flexible engines is es- pecially favorable in Brazil, where ethanol bio- Sweet Savings that the image you capture and the image that appears on the monitor are identical and that there is no loss of resolution. No competing de- vice in India has this,” says Swaminathan. The researchers also plan to outfit the image pro- cessing module with DICOM (a standard for digital communication in medicine) and other software that will allow radiologists to flip im- ages or invert colors to get improved contrast or perspective. A prototype of the new C-arm device is expected late in 2009. Nano Vision. SPM India Ltd in Bangalore, a machine manufacturer that specializes in con- veyer systems, is developing the assembly line for the Tata Nano’s two cylinder, fuel injection engine. With an expected price tag of about $2,500, the Nano, which will hit the market this year, will be the world’s least expensive four-wheel private vehicle. Yet the Nano is not only designed to tap a huge new consumer market, but to deliver outstanding quality. With this in mind, SPM has asked Siemens to de- velop an extremely affordable camera-based engine inspection, quality control and docu- mentation system. “The system is designed to inspect the automated insertion of the split (snap-in) rings used to hold the engine valves in place,” explains CT Senior Research Engineer Thirumalai Kumar. With algorithms designed to catch inaccura- cies in ring placement, and the presence of dirt and other anomalies, the camera is crucial to Tata’s goal of accelerating conveyor belt speed from 3 to 4 meters per minute to 6 to 12 in the near future. Although still in its pilot stage, the camera already offers a number of advan- tages. “We chose it because it’s programmable, accu- rate and supports documentation,” says SPM co-owner and director Dr. G.D.R. Krishna. He explains that the camera, which uses optical character recognition to read each motor’s se- rial number and then combines it with an im- age documenting correct placement of the rings, transmits its images via a wireless local area network to a storage system. “This sup- ports the warranty for as long as the customer requires,” he adds. Having proven the viability of its prototype, Siemens Corporate Technology in India is using its detailed knowledge of the customer’s needs to develop a lighting system designed to accel- erate the camera’s processing time from around 300 milliseconds per image to 200. “This will help meet the customer’s conveyor belt automation requirements,” says Kumar. “We are working out how to accomplish this while bringing the price down even further.” Arthur F. Pease erate electricity and steam for other industrial processes. As a result, the absolute energy yield per sugar mill has risen about tenfold over the last ten years. Brazilian companies are very specific about what they want from the turbines they use in their biomass plants. “Our customers are gen- erally price-sensitive, Costa explains. “That means that the trade-off between the cost of the initial investment and efficiency gains over the lifetime of the equipment is slightly differ- ent in this particular market.” In response, Siemens has adapted one of its successful European turbine models to the re- quirements of the Brazilian market, creating a new version of the SST300 steam pressure tur- bine. “A team of Siemens engineers working in Germany and Brazil spent months altering the model to ensure that the specific demands of Brazilian customers could be met more effec- tively, and that the unit could be manufactured using materials and facilities available in Brazil,” Costa explains. No compromises were made in terms of quality and safety, of course. But the price tag for the modified turbine is Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 91 Objective: Affordable Products | Facts and Forecasts I n emerging economies such as those of India and China, product requirements are different from those in highly-industrialized nations. What is needed are so-called S.M.A.R.T innovations (p. 74). The price of such robust, easy-to-use, and easy-to-maintain products must be ori- ented according to local consumers’ purchasing power. The objective is the development of high-tech, low-cost products that may cost as little as one-tenth of what they cost in North America. Although McKinsey estimates that the per capita in- come of Indian consumers will triple by 2025, it is cur- rently still at only US $793 per year. Some 28 percent of the population of India still lives below the poverty line of $1 per person per day, and more than 50 percent of the population lives on less than $2 per day. India is, however, on the way to becoming the world’s fifth-largest consumer market. According to analyses by McKinsey Global Institutes, more than 291 million Indians will liberate themselves from poverty in the next 20 years. During the same period, the middle class will grow more than tenfold, from 50 to 583 million people. And by 2025 more than 23 million Indians will belong to the nation’s wealthy upper class. According to the trade journal Electronics For You, the Indian market for automation technology — which was valued at nearly $2 billion in 2007 — is expected to grow by approximately 7 percent per year through 2012. How- ever, the high capital costs for such technology are forcing small and medium-sized businesses to choose low-cost automation solutions that can be amortized within one year. In most cases, existing manufacturing facilities are retrofitted. Maintenance costs can also be reduced through the use of condition monitoring systems, which enable ex- perts at remote locations to identify impending damage by analyzing machine data. Market research company Frost & Sullivan estimates that the global market volume for such condition monitor- ing systems will grow by approximately 60 percent to $2.3 billion by 2014. Intelligent cameras with digital signal processors and sensors (p. 83) are one cost-effective solution for auto- matic product inspection. Their components cost up to 80 percent less than previous systems. According to the Auto- mated Imaging Association, a U.S. trade association, the world market volume for image processing systems and their components totaled roughly €7.4 billion in 2005 and is expected to grow to €16 billion by 2015. Demand for healthcare and medical systems is also in- creasing sharply in fast-growing and populous countries such as China and India. According to the Federation of In- dian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, the market vol- ume for medical technology systems in India totaled ap- proximately $2.4 billion in 2007, and this amount is expected to double to nearly $5 billion by 2012. In addition to hospital equipment, there is a particu- larly high demand in rural areas for medical technology products that allow rapid diagnosis, independent data col- lection, and communication with the closest hospital. Devices will soon be available in which complex and costly ultrasound technology is replaced with tiny micro- phones (p. 74), which make the devices significantly smaller, more compact, and more robust. While imports are still generally used to meet the demand for complex products such as ultrasound machines or even LED and xenon lamps for operating rooms, local products are also making inroads here.Sylvia Trage Worldwide Distribution of Per Capita Income* Source: World Resources Institute Source: “Medical Buyer” 2008, figures for 2007 0.5 billion Developed markets more than $20,000 $3,260 to $20,000 < $3,260 2 billion Developing markets 4 billion people Underdeveloped markets * 2005 annual income, adjusted for purchasing power Source: World Resources Institute Average Per Capita Income Levels US$ per capita and per year Although real per capita income in India roughly doubled between 1985 and 2000, it is still 10 percent of the worldwide level. 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2007 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Worldwide average income Asia (not including Middle East) India Indian Medical Technology Market Device type Sales Annual growth rate (in millions of euros) (2008–2012, in %) Ultrasound machines 79.5 15 Magnetic resonance imaging machines 70.1 15 to 20 Computed tomography machines 54.8 12 to 15 Cardiac catheter labs 35.3 - Dialysis machines 34.4 25 Patient monitoring systems 24.7 10 to 15 Positron emission tomography machines 23.0 25 to 30 Mit enormen Investitionen baut Chongqing eine konkurrenzfähige Industrie auf. 90 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Brazil launched its ethanol program in 1975. Since then, alcohol has increas- ingly served as a substitute for costly imported oil. Three years after the country’s ethanol program was launched, physicist Prof. José Goldemberg, 80, began calculating its economic and ecological value added. His findings attracted a great deal of interest worldwide and helped to achieve a break- through for ethanol fuel in Brazil and other countries. Goldemberg, who has also worked with U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu, was recently named one of Time magazine’s “Heroes of the Environment” and in 2008 he received the Blue Planet Prize from the Asahi Glass Foundation of Japan. How did you come up with the idea of studying ethanol fuel in the 1970s, when it was still an obscure topic? Goldemberg:I was working as a professor at the Institute of Physics of the University of São Paulo at the time, and a colleague from the agricultural economics department who was studying alcohol fuels asked me to help him. Even back then everyone knew replacing gaso- line with ethanol was technically feasible. The problem was that until that point no one had calculated the precise energy balance. The fact is that it takes energy to produce ethanol, be- cause you need energy for seeds, fertilizer, har- vesting, transport, and distillation. The key question therefore was whether or not it made How big is the Brazilian ethanol fuel mar- ket today? Goldemberg:We produce around 22 billion liters of ethanol a year over a total area of ap- proximately 9.9 million acres. Around a quarter of all cars in Brazil, including all new ones, can run on ethanol. The Brazilian market for ethanol could triple in volume by 2020. Other countries, such as India, South Africa, Colombia, and many Caribbean nations, also have the con- ditions needed to achieve similarly good results. Will ethanol one day be able to completely replace gasoline made from crude oil? Goldemberg:Ethanol can help to make our oil reserves last longer, and also to slow down sense to produce ethanol at all. My studies clearly showed that every unit of fossil fuel en- ergy used to produce ethanol from sugar cane ultimately yields ten times the energy originally expended. The reason for this is simple: sugar cane captures and stores solar energy and con- verts it into the sugar from which ethanol can be obtained. So in a way, Brazilian fuel made from alcohol is a type of solar energy. So people who fill up with Brazilian ethanol instead of gasoline don’t produce any additional CO 2 emissions? Goldemberg:Yes, that’s almost the case. Pro- ducing ethanol from sugar cane needs a certain amount of energy, which in turn leads to extra CO 2 emissions. However, using ethanol instead of fossil fuels can result in an overall emission re- duction of up to 90 percent per unit of energy. Does this also apply to ethanol produced elsewhere, or from different plants? Goldemberg:Unfortunately it only applies to a limited extent. Most of the ethanol produced in the U.S., for example, comes from corn. The overall energy balance here is much less posi- tive. That’s because the plants themselves con- tain less energy than sugar cane — but it also has to do with the fact that more machines are used in the U.S. for farming and harvesting, and you need energy from fossil fuels to oper- ate all that equipment. This affects the CO 2 balance, of course. It also costs twice as much to produce ethanol in the U.S. as it does in Brazil, and production costs in Europe are actu- ally four times as high. Here in Brazil, we have the benefit of a climate with enough rainfall and a lot of sunshine. climate change. According to my calculations, ethanol could replace 10 percent of global gasoline consumption by 2020. Doesn’t producing ethanol from sugar lead to sugar cane monoculture and deforestation? Goldemberg:Sugar cane in Brazil is grown far from the Amazonian rain forest, so the idea that sugar cane cultivation destroys a great number of trees is a myth. The monoculture aspect does pose some concerns, however. Having served as environmental minister, I am aware of these problems. Nevertheless, our active environmen- tal protection policy is producing very good re- sults today. Among other things, monoculture has been banned in certain corridors, which has led to increased biodiversity — and not just lo- cally. The authorities know very well that envi- ronmentally-friendly ethanol must not be al- lowed to negatively impact biodiversity. Sugar cane yields other liquids, such as cachaça, the Brazilian sugar cane spirit used to make caipirinhas. Be honest with us: as a connoisseur, doesn’t it seem a ter- rible waste to burn ethanol made of sugar cane in cars? Goldemberg:Let me just say that one tenth of a liter of cachaça a day is more than enough for most people. Cars, on the other hand, are really “heavy drinkers.” My car consumes an av- erage of ten liters of pure alcohol daily. Still, until now demand for fuel hasn’t been putting distilleries producing “cachaça” out of business. That’s not going to happen either, because we Brazilians love our national drink too much. Interview by Andreas Kleinschmidt. Brazilian Ethanol: Liquid Solar Energy Innovations for New Markets | Interview Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 93 Inexhaustible Light for Lake Victoria On the shores of Lake Victoria, people have been using kerosene lamps to catch fish and light their homes for generations. But this dirty fuel poses a serious threat to health and the environment. That’s why Siemens subsidiary Osram is conducting a pilot project that offers local residents energy-saving lamps that provide a clean, safe lighting source far from power grids — without straining household budgets. 92 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Innovations for Developing Markets | Energy Hubs in Africa For generations, fishermen on Lake Victoria have been attracting omena sardines with lanterns — but these days they’re using energy-saving lamps from Osram. W hen night falls on Lake Victoria and the waters grow dark, that’s when the work- ing day begins for Pottas Aboy and his three co- workers. The four Kenyan fishermen paddle their boat out onto Africa’s largest lake — and keep going until the shore is visible as only a thin sliver in the distance. The men then care- fully place a small raft into the water. The raft contains a blue battery; above it an Osram en- ergy-saving lamp dangles from a support made of branches. The water shimmers dark green in Equipped with their new electric lamps, Aboy and his three colleagues are pioneers among the approximately 175,000 fishermen who fish in the waters of Lake Victoria. While it’s true that native fishermen have been using light as bait for generations, the light source has been kerosene lamps. According to the Global Nature Fund (GNF), a development aid organization, this tradition has had fatal conse- quences: The highly flammable kerosene has resulted in many fishermen being seriously burned. The kerosene also leaks, further pollut- ing what is already not the cleanest water. Greenhouse gases are an issue as well. The kerosene burned in lamps used around the lake produces around 50,000 tons of CO 2 per year, reports the GNF. Nevertheless, it has been very difficult for people in the region to break with their tradi- tion, especially in view of the fact that most of the approximately 30 million people who live around Lake Victoria have no access to electric- ity. So they are left with no choice but to use the toxic kerosene fuel — not just for fishing, but also to light their homes. Things changed in April 2008, though, when Osram and the GNF began to offer an alternative to provide clean and safe lighting sources to the people in the region, within the framework of a project known as “Umeme Kwa Wote” (Energy for Everyone). Self-Sufficient Charging Stations. This al- ternative is made possible by “Energy Hubs” — small electrical charging stations powered by roof-mounted solar cells that make the hubs completely independent of power grids. “The people in the region can lease our energy-sav- ing lamps from an Energy Hub, as well as bat- teries that they can recharge at the same loca- tion,” explains Jochen Berner, Osram’s manager for the project. “Along with the lamps, we also provide purified drinking water and a mobile phone recharging service.” Osram has already built four Energy Hubs — three in Kenya and one in neighboring Uganda. The hubs, which are operated by partner company Thames Electrical of Kenya, and by Dembe Trading in Uganda, have a bright fu- ture. Says Osram’s Chief Sustainability Officer, Wolfgang Gregor, “At the moment, we’re nego- tiating with the World Bank and industrial part- ners on expanding the project, whereby our goal is to build a further 100 or so Energy Hubs in Africa, and 20 in Asia.” One Energy Hub is located in the town of Mbita (population 15,000) on the eastern shore of Lake Victoria. The orange-white brick building that houses the hub is surrounded by corrugated iron shacks. Between the structures the light of the lamp. “The light mainly attracts omena, a type of sardine,” Aboy explains, and then gives his home-made raft a gentle shove and watches it slowly disappear in the darkness on the lake. “Now we wait until enough fish have gathered around the light of the raft,” says Aboy. “After that, we’ll toss a net around the raft and pull it back in quickly.” Aboy stares into the night, where the only thing still visible is a small shimmering light — bobbing on a lake as big as Ireland. liable Osram lamps as backups. “The grid fails for a couple of hours every day,” he points out. For Pottas Aboy and his three fellow fisher- men, it’s time to go into action on the lake again. They row to the small light they see dancing on the waves in the distance. Mosqui- toes appear as they reach the raft, but the men pay no attention as they toss out their net and begin to pull it back. The water under the net begins to bubble as the light of the lamp illumi- nates a dense school of fish, making them look like pieces of silver treasure. Aboy’s working day has begun. Florian Martini Innovations for Developing Markets | Energy Hubs in Africa Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 9594 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 a few chickens peck at the dust. Here, the world seems to be taking a siesta in the oppres- sive midday heat. But there’s plenty of activity taking place behind the walls of the local hub, with its 42 solar panels constantly pumping the energy from tropical sunlight into batteries for energy-saving lamps, at outputs of up to ten kilowatts. It takes approximately three hours to charge the batteries, each of which weighs five kilos. When completely recharged, the batteries can light up the 11-watt energy-saving lamps from Osram for up to 12 hours. “That’s more than enough for a night of fishing,” says Berner. “But the main benefit offered by our lamps is their low price.” He explains that those who would like to rent a lamp must leave a deposit of around 2,000 Kenyan shillings, or approxi- mately €20. That’s a lot of money for people whose average monthly income is only €35. On the other hand, battery recharging or ex- change at the hub costs only 100 shillings, or about €1. “We work with local institutions that specialize in micro loans to help ensure that people who need the lamps can afford to use them,” Berner says. “You have to keep in mind that the deposit costs about as much as a new kerosene lantern, with the difference being that our customers get their money back when they no longer need the lamp.” Berner also points out that the recharging fee at the Energy Hub is relatively inexpensive when you consid- er that a fisherman uses around 1.5 liters of kerosene each night, which costs approximate- ly 150 shillings. “With us, the customer only pays 100 shillings a night, so they save 30 per- cent.” In addition, customers can use the bat- teries to power other devices such as mobile phones and radios. from the store’s ceiling. “I used to have to close the store at sundown,” says Mama Austin. “Now I just turn on the lamp and keep the store open until nine — and business is better as a result.” The bright light appeals not only to cus- tomers but to children. “They can come in the evening to study without ruining their eyes or having to breathe in smoke from kerosene lamps,” she adds. The kerosene lamps are responsible for lung disease and most of the fires that the village has suffered, says Ben Otieno, who manages the Energy Hub in Nyandiwa. “Three houses problem,” says Otieno. “Osram water, on the other hand, is completely safe — and word of that has spread throughout the village.” The water is safe thanks to a sophisticated treatment unit that transforms rainwater col- lected in a tank next to the hub into very pure drinking water. The unit, which is powered by rooftop solar cells, filters out large particles, then passes the water through an activated carbon filter that binds all chemical substances and neutralizes odors. The water is then chan- neled through a micro filter to remove the tini- est substances. While this economic model may sound con- vincing, in the beginning it didn’t generate much interest, as is true of many development projects. “People here tend to cling very strong- ly to their traditions, and the social and deci- sion-making structures are completely different from those in industrialized countries,” Berner explains. “For example, if a man is interested in one of our lamps, it’s possible that his wife might veto the decision because women are of- ten responsible for the family budget in Africa.” The Osram team therefore had to do a lot of persuading and patiently establish new rela- tionships. Nevertheless, as Berner reports, they succeeded. “We now have about 600 cus- tomers using the lamps from our three Kenyan hubs, and 150 of them are fishermen,” he says. Light at Mama Austin’s. Although the clean, bright lamps were originally developed for use by fishermen, they are now increasingly being used in local households. In the village of Nyandiwa, around 50 kilometers south of Mbi- ta, for example, the lamps can be found in a store operated by Mama Austin. Her corrugat- ed shack is packed with all kinds of merchan- dise, and one wall is adorned with a poster of U.S. President Barack Obama, whose grand- mother lives nearby. A lone Osram lamp hangs once burned down in just one month,” he re- calls. “When that happens, the people are left with literally nothing.” This is why Otieno be- lieves the success of the project hinges on mak- ing people aware of the health benefits offered by the Osram lamps. Extremely Pure Drinking Water. The Energy Hubs also provide drinking water — thanks in part to the efforts of Otieno and his two col- leagues, who have succeeded in convincing lo- After that, the unit’s attention turns to any remaining bacteria or viruses, which are ex- posed to an 11-watt ultraviolet sterilization lamp that disinfects the water. “Rain permit- ting, we can process up to 3,000 liters of water per day with the unit,” reports Otieno, “and the quality of the water is superior to that offered by our public wells.” Otieno is convinced that the self-sufficient Energy Hubs with their integrated water purifi- cation service have a bright future in Kenya, One recharging at a solar hub is good for 12 hours of light — and costs 30 percent less than kerosene. cal people of the health benefits of pure water. More and more people are now coming to the small faucet at the front of the hub to fill their canisters with water, paying two shillings per liter. That’s an investment in good health, Otieno believes, because many of the villagers draw their water from Lake Victoria and drink it without boiling it — although they wash their clothes in the lake and use it as a toilet. “That’s why we are hit with a cholera epi- demic here every year, and the lack of ade- quate medical care makes that an enormous and that they can successfully compete against kerosene use. However, a new competitor will soon be trying to lure away Energy Hub cus- tomers: High-voltage power lines have now reached some villages, posing a potential threat to the energy pioneers’ prospects. Bern- er doesn’t seem concerned, though. “The elec- trical connection alone costs 32,000 shillings, and then you have to pay the bills for the pow- er you use,” he says. Hardly anyone can afford that, Berner believes, adding that even people who have electrical connections will use the re- People who do not have access to grid electricity can lease energy-saving lamps at Osram Energy Hubs — and obtain clean drinking water. Electricity is provided by roof-mounted solar cells. Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 97 A vision of mobility is emerging in which vehicles not only deliver clean trans- portation, but also store excess energy from renew- able sources. New drive systems, battery, billing, and smart grid technologies are setting the stage for tomorrow’s energy and transportation ecosystem. 96 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Innovations for New Markets | Mobility Technicians convert a Porsche into an electric car with the help of Siemens technology. Styrofoam fills the space that will later be occupied by the engine and battery block (right). I magine millions of electric vehicles in park- ing lots and garages, each drawing power from the grid. Now take the thought one step further and imagine each vehicle returning some of its stored energy to the grid during pe- riods of peak power demand. That’s the vision that is set to transform the automotive industry over the next few years. It’s a vision that is not possible with the internal combustion engine. However, it can be achieved with a bidirec- tional battery that can be charged up or used as an energy source. This vision of electric mobility has come about as the result of the convergence of a number of factors.An increasing number of people want to be mobile, while energy con- sumption is rising dramatically, especially in emerging markets such as India and China. In the past, these demands were met mainly by using fossil fuels. And indeed, for over 100 years cars have been powered by combustion engines while electrical power has essentially been produced by burning coal or natural gas. Time is running out, however, because fos- sil resources are being depleted, and the CO 2 emissions they produce are accelerating cli- mate change. More and more energy suppliers are therefore utilizing renewable and CO 2 -free energy sources, such as wind and solar power. The problem here, however, is that their yield depends on the weather. As the share of elec- tricity from such sources increases, so too does the need to develop interim storage facilities whose energy can be tapped at a moment’s notice. One idea is to use batteries in electric cars, which, depending on demand for electric- ity and price, can either be recharged from any Electric Ecosystem power outlet or return electricity to the grid. If, for example, a surplus of electricity is available, as is often the case at night or during periods of windy weather, prices could be lowered, making it attractive to “fill up” at such times. Conversely, if winds were calm, or a lot of elec- tricity was being used during the day, the price might rise accordingly, which would lead many vehicle owners to sell their electricity back to the grid at a profit. In fact, an intelligent management system installed in each car could even make the deci- sion itself, provided it knew how far its driver planned to travel that day, and how much elec- in electric cars. Achieving a range of 100 kilo- meters for a mid-sized vehicle today requires a battery with approximately 15 kilowatt-hours of energy content. Such a battery currently costs more than €10,000. However, there are other options for such mobile power plants be- sides having them financed through income from electricity. For one thing, vehicle owners wouldn’t necessarily have to buy the battery. Instead, it could be leased from an energy sup- plier. In other words, an energy company would decentralize its energy storage capacity and finance the battery through the latter’s “secondary use.” various research institutes. “My goal is to utilize electric mobility to help achieve a break- through for a new culture of mobility and a new system of urban planning,” said German Transport Minister Wolfgang Tiefensee at the conference. Environmental Minister Sigmar Gabriel added that electric cars acting as buffer storage units would establish an important link to renewable energy sources. Such a development will become important in Germany, Gabriel said, because the country plans to increase the share of renewable en- ergy sources in its electricity mix from around 15 percent today to as much as 40 percent by tricity the battery would require for that dis- tance. In any case, most cars sit idly for most of the day, which means they could be continu- ally connected to the grid from their office parking spaces, parking lots or home garages. Flexibly determining electricity prices in accor- dance with supply and demand would also eliminate any problem associated with many vehicles trying to recharge at once, which of course would cause prices to skyrocket. Cars that Generate Income. The rule of thumb is that there should be some 300 elec- tric vehicles as potential energy storage units for every wind turbine with a peak output of three megawatts. The existence of cars as mo- bile storage units would kill two birds with one stone. Assuming vehicle batteries could handle numerous charging and discharging cycles, en- ergy supply companies would be provided with a buffer against surplus energy from renewable sources, while vehicle owners would have a source of income to help them finance their relatively expensive batteries. In the foreseeable future, batteries will re- main one of the most expensive components Regardless of what form electric cars may take, and what role they will play in the elec- tricity mix, any future concept will need to in- corporate the most important stakeholders: electricity producers, automakers, suppliers, and governments, whose policies should pave the way for the necessary paradigm change. In Germany, a first step was taken in No- vember 2008, when the Ministry of Economics 2020. Secretary for Economics and Technology Dagmar Wöhrl added that it is essential for util- ities to work closely with automakers, as exten- sive R&D investment will be required — partic- ularly in the fields of energy storage, vehicle engineering, and power-grid integration. In fact, such alliances are already in place. For instance, BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen are working with major German power suppli- By storing energy that can be returned to the grid, electric cars can act as buffers for wind and solar power. and Technology (BMWi); the Ministry of Trans- port, Building, and Urban Affairs (BMVBS); the Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conser- vation, and Nuclear Safety (BMU); and the Min- istry of Education and Research (BMBF) held a National Strategy Conference on Electric Mobil- ity. The conference brought together energy suppliers such as E.ON, RWE, and Evonik; au- tomakers and suppliers such as Volkswagen, Daimler, Continental, and Bosch; electrical and electronics companies such as Siemens; and ers such as Vattenfall, RWE, and Evonik. VW also recently began working with Toshiba on the development of battery technology. Power- ful batteries are indeed the key to the entire vi- sion, which is why their development has to be supported, said Thomas Rachel from the BMBF. A total of €500 million could be spent on mobility research over the next three years within the framework of the German govern- ment’s stimulus programs. Activities here could include the development of an appropriate in- Innovations for New Markets | Mobility Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 9998 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 frastructure and all aspects of electric vehicle technology. Regardless of how the details turn out, conference participants emphasized that the overall goal is to make Germany the lead- ing market for electric mobility. Battery Alliance. Germany is already leading the way when it comes to electric mobility components for supplying energy or manufac- turing electric automobiles. The country de- signs the most efficient power plants, whether conventional, wind powered, or solar-thermal — and has also developed systems for low-loss power transmission over great distances. As far as automobiles are concerned, Ger- many remains a leader in electric motors and vehicle electronic systems. However, the situa- tion is different with regard to battery technol- ogy. Here, most new developments are taking place in China and Korea; only around one per- cent of all lithium-ion batteries are manufac- tured in Germany. Still, Germany has produced some new developments, as evidenced by the fact that a team of three scientists from Evonik’s LiTec subsidiary was nominated for the German Future Prize two years ago. The team developed a separator for lithium-ion batteries that prevents short circuits, thereby making the high-performance units much more reliable. This is important because lithium-ion cells are regarded as being the only batteries capable of powering electric cars. Basically, they are the only batteries that can deliver the power den- sity required for automotive transportation. The BMBF has thus established a “Lithium-ion Battery” alliance that will allow Germany to catch up in this field. At the same time, the BMWi has launched a “Mobility and Transport Technology” research program to develop state-of-the-art drive sys- tems. Here, in addition to hybrids, the focus is on new power electronics systems for automo- biles. A good electric vehicle requires a battery with an energy content of 42 kilowatt-hours to achieve a range of around 300 kilometers —in other words an energy consumption level of 15 By 2020 there could easily be 4.5 million electric vehicles in Germany alone. kilowatt-hours per 100 kilometers. Assuming a normal voltage of 230 volts and a current of 16 amps, it would take around 12 hours to com- pletely charge such a battery. “But at 400 volts and 25 amps, a driver could recharge in just two hours,” says Professor Gernot Spiegelberg, who heads an electric mobility team at Siemens Corporate Technology. Every German household has 400-volt potential because that’s the voltage used by a normal three- phase current connection. “The only thing missing up until now has been a suitable inter- face between vehicles and the grid,” he adds. Spiegelberg’s team, which works closely with Siemens’ Energy and Industry Sectors, is the hub for the company’s electric mobility re- search and development effort. The team’s fo- cus is on electric vehicle system requirements and the design of a mobility power grid infra- structure. Among other things, Siemens engi- neers are examining power generation and dis- tribution options, transport and energy management systems, smart metering, power electronics, software, sensors and, of course, electric drives and the recovery and storage of energy. In addition to serving as energy stor- age units, electric drives could also become an important part of Siemens’ Environmental Port- folio. That’s because they utilize energy more efficiently than combustion engines. “I believe that in Germany alone, there is po- tential for 4.5 million electric vehicles on the road by 2020,” says Spiegelberg. “All of these vehicles could get their power from the exist- ing grid. And that’s just a conservative esti- mate, because these vehicles would only add up to about half of the second cars owned by families, most of which never travel over 70 kilometers a day.” As a consequence, one out of every ten vehicles in Germany would no longer use gasoline. Selling Miles instead of Cars. Germany is not the only country pursuing new electric mo- bility concepts; ideas are also being generated and implemented in the U.S., Australia, Israel, and Denmark, as well as in other nations. In California, a start-up called Better Place is ad- dressing the entire value chain for a modern mobility system based on renewable energy sources. Launched two years ago, Better Place is working on the creation of a comprehensive infrastructure for the operation of electric vehi- cles. Following the concept used to attract mo- bile phone customers, Better Place plans to provide its customers with cars at discount prices — or even for free. Customers would then pay for the distances traveled, with their invoices based solely on the actual number of kilometers driven. Better Place believes it can provide customers with a better kilometer- based leasing deal for electric vehicles than can be obtained for a vehicle with a combustion engine. Here, battery stations designed like gas automotive companies there. At the 2008 Geneva Motor Show, for example, a Chinese plug-in hybrid electric vehicle known as the “F3DM” was unveiled by a company called Build Your Dream (BYD). The car is equipped with a small-volume combustion engine (1.0 liters displacement), a complete electric drive sys- tem, and a battery/storage unit that can be charged both internally via a generator and/or The Electric Mobility Value Chain Takes Shape 1 Energy suppliers integrate all forms of energy, from fossil to renewable, which is why intelligent power grids must be flexible and resilient. 2 An infrastructure consisting of charging stations and invoicing devices is established at public buildings and major parking lots. 3 Batteries in electric cars not only store electricity but return it to the grid if necessary. Internet-enabled cell phones are used to display all the key parameters regarding smart metering. 4 Electricity is traded like stocks, with each electric vehicle driver freely choosing to buy or sell, depending on the current price. 5 The electric car makes it possible to realize new vehicle concepts that include new electronic driver assistance systems that provide added comfort, entertainment, and safety. Service providers can utilize overarching standards to put together and market electric mobility packages. In such a setup, drivers don’t purchase a car, but instead pay for the number of kilometers they travel. 1 3 2 5 4 A Porsche is transformed as (from left) an electric motor is bolted onto the battery blocks, after which the resulting module is integrated into the body and the batteries are mounted on the rear. stations would enable batteries low on energy to be quickly exchanged for fully-charged ones. Better Place has entered a partnership with Renault-Nissan and plans to work with local en- ergy utilities to establish energy infrastructures in various countries. The first electric car-based systems are expected to be up and running by 2011. German companies have also recognized the market potential offered by electric vehicles and are working hard to develop appropriate solutions. Daimler, for example, is looking to establish an alliance with energy provider RWE that would standardize battery charging sta- tions. The fact that Abu Dhabi recently decided to become a major Daimler shareholder ap- pears to confirm that the automaker is on the right track. Through Daimler, Abu Dhabi is banking on an accelerated transition from combustion engines to alternative drive sys- tems, thus preparing itself for the “post-oil era.” Similarly, BMW and Volkswagen are working with energy companies — among other things in order to determine which types of infrastruc- ture are necessary for different mobility re- quirements. Their ultimate goal is to establish a foundation for the widespread introduction of electric vehicles. The electric automobile revolution could end up taking place in Asia, however, as com- pletely new players are now joining traditional by exploiting braking energy recovery, or exter- nally at a conventional 230-volt outlet. The ve- hicle’s range in the pure electric mode is 110 kilometers, which is more than the average one-day requirement of most commuters. BYD, which is headquartered in Shenzhen in the Chinese province of Guangdong, was es- tablished in 1995. It now has 120,000 employ- ees and is one of the top 20 companies in China. For six years now, its 6,000 engineers have been intensively studying and developing hybrid and electric vehicles. Thanks to Chinese expertise in the field of Li-ion batteries, which comes from decades of experience with cell phones and PCs, BYD is one of the few au- tomakers anywhere that can independently de- velop and produce the battery technology re- quired for modern electric vehicles. F3DM production for the Chinese market is already under way, and preparations are being made for the production of export models. BYD has also announced that at the end of 2009, it will launch the BYD e6, a pure electric car that will have a range of 290 kilometers. Outstanding Well-to-Wheel Efficiency. In addition to energy storage technology, devel- opers are also focusing on the drive train as a key electric mobility technology. In principle, drive trains for electric cars can be designed much more simply than is the case with gaso- Tomorrow’s Vehicle Alphabet The term “electric mobility” is generally used to refer to personal transport in vehicles that are driven by an electric motor and/or are equipped with batteries that store a relevant amount of energy. These vehicles are classified as follows: HEV = Hybrid Vehicle: Combination of an electric drive and a combustion engine PHEV = Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle: Hybrid vehicle with power-grid connectability BEV = Battery-Electric Vehicle: Purely electric vehicle FCV = Fuel Cell Vehicle: A vehicle that produces its own electricity through a chemical process. Many hybrid vehicles are already available on the market, and scaled-up production of all-electric vehicles will soon be launched. 100 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 101 Back to the Future On April 29, 1882, Werner Siemens drove the Elek- tromote — an electrically powered carriage — along a 540-meter test track in Halensee near Berlin. Siemens’ invention was not only the first electric ve- hicle, but also the world’s first trolley bus. The Elek- tromote was followed in 1905 by the Electric Victo- ria, which rolled through Berlin as a taxi and delivery vehicle at a top speed of 24 kilometers per hour. Al- though these vehicles were well ahead of their time, their low battery capacities, speeds, and range couldn’t compete with internal combustion engines. This state of affairs has lasted more than 100 years, and the rule of thumb even today remains that one liter of gasoline equates to nine kilowatt- hours. A lithium-ion battery with that sort of content weighs around 100 kilograms. Still, an electric car can travel around 60 kilometers on that energy, while a gasoline-powered vehicle will only manage 10 to 20 kilometers. This range superiority is due to the fact that electric motors are roughly four times as efficient as combustion engines. Lithium-ion batteries are familiar as high-performance energy stor- age devices in cell phones, PDAs, and laptops. They can store two to three times as much energy as conventional nickel-cadmium batteries of the same weight. However, a €10,000 Li-ion battery would be required to power a passenger car that uses 15 kilowatt-hours per 100 kilometers. Mass production will thus be required to bring prices down to affordable levels. Innovations for New Markets | Mobility line or diesel engines because no transmission, differential, or drive shaft are required — a situ- ation that is similar to that of 100 years ago when electric automobile pioneers built wheel hub motor vehicles. A wheel hub motor is a machine directly installed in the wheel, which means part of the motor turns with the wheel. But unlike the mechanical systems of the past, the drive systems of the future will have brains. Intelligent electronic systems will man- age components, charging and discharging procedures, as well as the brake energy recov- ery processes. And all of this will be designed to ensure that the energy efficiency, and thus the environmental soundness, of electric cars is much higher than the values achievable by combustion engines. The well-to-wheel effi- ciency (from energy source to operation) of a good electric vehicle today is over 70 percent – based on renewable energy sources –, whereas the efficiency rating of most combustion engines is only around 20 percent. prototype vehicles with electric drive trains from Siemens. “At the Geneva Motor Show in March 2009, we presented our drive systems in the “iChange” concept car, which was built by Rinspeed, and in the eRuf Greenster, a vehicle produced by Alois Ruf,” he says. Rinspeed, a Swiss firm headed by visionary Frank Rinderknecht, is well-known for its for- ward-looking concept cars. Measuring around one meter in height and 4.28 meters in length, the “iChange” is equipped with a 150-kilowatt- hour electric motor from Siemens Drive Tech- nologies that allows it to accelerate from 0 to 100 kilometers per hour in only 4.2 seconds. The car’s top speed is 220 kilometers per hour. However, when completely charged and operating at full output, the vehicle has a range of only 90 kilometers. The car’s lithium- ion batteries, which are produced by Gaia, a company located in Nordhausen, Germany, can be recharged in about three hours at a conven- tional electrical outlet. manufacture a small lot of successor models that will employ a dual-motor concept. This so- called “eRuf” will be the first electric car in the world with a bidirectional power connection, which will allow it to be recharged within an hour at a 380-volt electrical outlet — without the extra electrical circuitry typically required for recharging. The bidirectional system will also permit it to feed energy back into the power grid via the same socket. A small group of the cars is expected to hit the road in 2010. “As wonderful and powerful as these elec- tric cars are, we mustn’t forget that the vehicles themselves are just one link in an electric mo- bility chain,” says Manfried Kruska, whose work in Siemens’ Energy Sector focuses on electric mobility from an infrastructural perspective. Much still needs to be done here. For instance: ➔Power grids have to be able to react cor- rectly and quickly to fluctuations in the supply of electricity from renewable energy sources such as wind and solar facilities. ➔Standards must be defined regarding the charging voltage of the power electronics, and a decision needs to be made as to whether the recharging processes should be controlled by a system within the vehicle or one installed at the charging station. ➔Components for bidirectional operations and flexible billing for electricity still need to be developed if passenger cars are to be used as electricity storage media. And all these things must be part of the smart grid of the future. Cars Join the Grid. Siemens has years of ex- perience and tremendous expertise in all as- pects of the energy supply chain. The company is thus ideally suited to help design tomorrow’s electric mobility system — from vehicle parts to power grid components. With this in mind, when Tobias Wittmann from Siemens’ Energy Sector attended the Na- tional Strategy Conference on Electric Mobility in Berlin in 2008, he presented a software pro- gram known as the “Vehicle-to-Grid Scenario.” The software, which simulates the interaction between centralized and distributed energy systems, demonstrates the role electric cars will play as both energy consumers and energy sources. It illustrates how vehicles will be able to draw and store cheap electricity at night, and then sell the power back to the grid at a profit during the day. Siemens’ Energy Sector established a re- search alliance for such a system in February 2009, when it signed an agreement to join an international consortium in Denmark known as the EDISON project. EDISON stands for “Electric vehicles in a Distributed and Integrated market using Sustainable energy and Open Networks.” “The goal of the project is to standardize electrical energy-storage equipment and charging and discharging technologies for elec- tric and plug-in electric hybrid vehicles,” says Sven Holthusen, head of Siemens’ activities in the consortium. “Our job is to study the poten- tial for connecting electric vehicles to the pub- lic grid.” As a partner in the EDISON project, Siemens is responsible for coordinating and delivering key technologies, such as those needed for charging stations and associated control sys- tems that ensure optimal utilization of battery capacities. At the heart of the overall setup are the power electronics and communication sys- tems for managing battery charging and feed- in to the grid. All of this plugs in smartly with Denmark’s plans, which call for 50 percent of its electricity to be generated by wind by 2020. As a result, the country sees the development of solutions for storing excess electricity as crucial. “If you don’t utilize a storage option with wind, you need to install six times the normal output in order to ensure a sufficient and constant sup- ply of power,” explains Spiegelberg. Mobile Power Plants. Connecting electric ve- hicles to the power grid poses a particular chal- lenge, as large amounts of energy will need to flow quickly and in both directions if the electri- cal energy from batteries is to be used as so- called “regulating energy” during peak times. Regulating energy refers to the energy a power network operator must provide in order to off- set frequency fluctuations in the network, which arise when more energy is being used than the base-load power plants are capable of supplying. Regulating energy then has to be supplied at short notice from natural gas plants, pumped storage hydropower stations, thermal plants, or energy storage units. “This is a challenge we are well equipped for,” says Kruska. “We already have most of the compo- nents, systems, and solutions needed to estab- lish an infrastructure to connect electric vehi- cles to the power grid. Our know-how covers switchgear, inverters, and control technology — but we also have network design expertise, SIPLINK for network coupling, and local grid transformers.” As new as some of this sounds, the associ- ated Siemens innovations go back many years. In fact, the electric car is older than the com- bustion engine vehicle invented by Carl Benz in 1885/86. “The pioneering determination of our engineers to establish electric mobility has a tradition extending back more than 100 years,” said Siemens CEO Peter Löscher at the com- pany’s Annual Meeting in January 2009. “After all, it was in 1882 that Werner Siemens pre- sented the first electric vehicle, which he called the Elektromote. Today, electric vehicles have a much greater chance of becoming widespread than they did back then — at least in terms of urban transportation. What hasn’t changed, however, is the pioneering spirit with which Siemens researchers and developers are work- ing to achieve a major breakthrough for electric vehicles.” Klaudia Kunze Electric motors are roughly four times as efficient as combustion engines . In October 2008, Alois Ruf, a German com- pany that specializes in modifying Porsches, presented an electric Porsche that it now plans to further develop with Spiegelberg. “For the prototype in Geneva, we used an integrated system consisting of a motor and generator, power electronics, and an interface with a bat- tery connection,” Spiegelberg explains. The electric Porsche presented in Geneva by RUF Automobile GmbH contains a preliminary version of the innovative eDrive system from Siemens Corporate Technology. The prototype has a central motor with an output of 270 kilo- watt-hours and torque of 950 newton meters. When driven in a moderate manner, it has a range of around 200 kilometers. Ruf plans to Specialty manufacturer Ruf unveiled its eCar and inte- grated motor, generator, and power electronics sys- tem from Siemens at the Geneva Motor Show. The motor for the iChange (right) is also from Siemens. Even if the power for electric cars isn’t gen- erated from renewable sources such as wind and sun, the level of CO 2 emissions from such vehicles is still much lower than that of any combustion engine. That’s because power plants in the global electricity mix emit some 600 grams of CO 2 per kilowatt-hour, which cor- responds to 90 grams for every kilometer driven by an electric car. That’s a lot less than the 120 to 160 grams of CO 2 emitted per kilo- meter by a typical mid-range automobile with a combustion engine. High-Speed Electric. Spiegelberg, who is a recognized expert in the field of electric drive systems, was instrumental in equipping two Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 103102 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 W ind power generation is a relatively new technology. It was only 30 years ago, in 1979, that the first wind turbine — with an output of 22 kilowatts — entered service in Denmark. Today, these zero-emission genera- tion units can produce well over 100 times that output, in addition to also achieving a maxi- mum efficiency of 45 percent. So no one should be surprised that the wind turbine busi- ness is booming, especially with the looming threat of climate change and the general de- pletion of resources that the world is experi- encing. Energy from the wind is also rapidly be- Bright Future for Wind Power ness year 2008 alone, the company was awarded contracts for the installation of 1,500 MW of output. Orders here include 130 units, each with an output of 2.3 MW, to be delivered to two wind parks in Washington State, and 141 units of the same size that will be set up at Biglow Canyon Wind Farm in Oregon. The com- bined total output of these units is enough to provide 180,000 American households with environmentally-friendly electricity. In September 2007, Siemens put into oper- ation its first U.S. rotor blade factory in Fort Madison, Iowa, in order to more effectively Innovations for New Markets | Interview | Saving Energy in the U.S. Eileen Claussen,63, is the President of the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and Strategies for the Global Environment (www. pewcli- mate.org), a non-profit, non-partisan organization that produces reports and analyses for policy makers. She is a former Assistant Secretary of State for Oceans and International Environmental and Scien- tific Affairs. Prior to joining the Department of State, Ms. Claussen served as a Special Assistant to the Pres- ident and Senior Director for Global Environmental Af- fairs at the National Security Council. She has also served as Chairman of the United Nations Multilateral Mon- treal Protocol Fund. Ms. Claussen was Director of At- mospheric Programs at the U.S. Environmental Protec- tion Agency, where she was responsible for energy effi- ciency programs, including the Green Lights and Energy Star programs. Strategies for a More Energy-Efficient U.S. To what extent can the U.S. realistically reduce its greenhouse gas emissions? Claussen:The U.S. Climate Action Partnership — USCAP — a coalition of corporations and NGOs that includes, among others, both the Pew Center and Siemens, issued a blueprint in January 2009 that includes targets for green- house gas emissions reduction that are ambi- tious yet realistic. It calls for achieving at least 1990 levels by 2020. This is tougher than it sounds because the U.S. is now about 14 per- cent above its 1990 levels, which makes it nearly impossible for us to achieve Europe’s goal of reducing total greenhouse gas emis- sions by 20 percent by 2020. However, I think that by 2030 we will probably be able to catch to find a substitute for it for some time. So it is imperative that we develop affordable tech- nologies that allow us to separate and se- quester CO 2 . By the same token, we must also develop carbon-free ways of generating elec- tricity. Then there is transportation, which ac- counts for 30 percent of U.S. emissions. Here, we will have to come up with a low carbon fuel standard and move in the direction of hy- brids and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. So we have to find some way of decarbonizing our transportation system. Finally, in terms of buildings, one of the major problems in the U.S. is our patchwork of local codes. But if there is a price on carbon, owners will start to pay attention. People will want more efficient up with Europe. By then, we are talking about a reduction of about 28 percent as compared with 1990 levels, and a reduction of 66 per- cent by 2050. How can the U.S. achieve these goals? Claussen:The most important thing is to put a price on carbon, and the best way to do so is by implementing a cap and trade regime — a system that caps total emissions and allows companies that pollute less to sell credits to those that pollute more. That, more than any- thing else, will spur innovation. It will get us to deal with energy efficiency issues and it will spur us to move into new technologies and create incentives for investing in the cleanest forms of energy — meaning renewables. In ad- dition, we will have to implement tough effi- ciency standards for vehicles, appliances and industrial machines. We are already on the right track. Twenty-four U.S. states are in- volved in a patchwork of cap and trade sys- tems, and I anticipate that we will have a na- tional policy in this area within two years. In terms of setting stricter standards, California’s mileage proposal is likely to be enacted on a national basis. If approved, it would require cars and trucks to get an average of 43 miles per gallon by 2020 as compared with 25 today. Which technologies offer the greatest promise of reducing CO 2 emissions? Claussen: I think the most important technol- ogy issue today is the burning of coal for elec- tricity. Coal accounts for about 50 percent of U.S. electricity and 80 percent of China’s. It is the largest single source of carbon dioxide emissions and it is unlikely that we will be able heating and cooling systems, better windows, and much more, including passive buildings, which are energy self sufficient. Steve Chu, the new Secretary of Energy, will help us get there. Can the U.S. ratify the Kyoto Protocol? Claussen:The problem is that we are now so far behind the emissions reduction targets that we can’t ratify it. As a result, I believe that the approach of the Obama Administration will be to see how much real progress we make on do- mestic legislation, and then see what we can realistically agree to with regard to Kyoto. That’s why the idea of having a ratifiable agreement by December 2009 — the upcom- ing Copenhagen summit — may not be practi- cal for the U.S. Nevertheless, getting a global agreement here is very important. This could be a strong interim agreement that puts a full, final and ratifiable treaty within reach. Other countries are looking to us to make the first move. We have to put something on the table. On the other hand, India and China must get on a cleaner path. So I think that everybody has to play a part. Everybody will have to make changes. Some — like the U.S. — will have to make major changes. Others — like India and China — will need more time. But no one can afford to stand on the sidelines. What can Siemens do to help make the U.S. economy greener? Claussen:I think the fact that Siemens is part of USCAP is very important. USCAP is a combi- nation of NGOs and industry, and because of that, I believe that it will have a disproportion- ate effect on what our ultimate CO 2 legislation will look like. You see, the private sector has a much better idea than does government as to what is possible from a technological point of view, and what will spur innovation. So it is im- portant for Siemens to continue to make the case for reduced CO 2 legislation with those lawmakers who think this will ruin the econ- omy. I think Siemens has a pretty good idea of how to move forward in this area, and I think this strategy will probably be quite effective. Is this a win-win strategy? Claussen:Well, obviously, there is a lot of money to be made in terms of offering effi- cient solutions that cut CO 2 emissions and pro- tect the environment. But governments need to hear these arguments. They don’t necessar- ily know these things themselves. This is one of the reasons that we formed the Pew Center and work with 44 companies on our Business Environmental Leadership Council. Will the Clean Air Act eventually cover greenhouse gas emissions as pollutants? Claussen:I think that the Environmental Pro- tection Agency (EPA) will have to do an “en- dangerment finding” indicating that CO 2 emis- sions are a danger to the environment. They have actually done all the work on that al- ready, but it was disregarded by the previous Administration. So, yes, I think EPA will start to move and I believe this Congress will enact cap and trade legislation as its enforcement vehicle for cutting greenhouse gas emissions. Cutting CO 2 emissions is expensive. But what about the costs of not cutting them? Claussen:The fundamental debate is be- tween those who see investing in avoiding cli- mate change as a cost, and those who view it as a benefit. I think we also need to look at the cost of not doing something. The Stern report was a first step in this direction. It found that the cost of not acting was much higher than that of acting. Now, I don’t know if I believe all its numbers. But I think in terms of direction, it is correct. The cost of weather extremes, famines, droughts, and biodiversity impacts are enormous. They far exceed the cost of do- ing something. So not dealing with climate change is not an option. Furthermore, the more we wait, the more emissions will grow and the more we will have to reduce later on. We have waited much too long already. Interview by Arthur F. Pease In the U.S., Siemens manufactures rotor blades and has installed turbines with a total output of over 2,700 MW. coming more popular in the U.S. — not least because the country’s new administration has set itself the goal of increasing the share of re- newable energy sources in the U.S. electricity mix to 25 percent by 2025. By comparison, the share of electricity from such sources was only 2.5 percent in 2007, according to the U.S. En- ergy Information Administration. Nevertheless, the conditions required for this tremendous shift are in place. The U.S. is already the world’s largest wind energy market — and Siemens is one of that market’s leading suppliers. Siemens has installed wind power facilities with a combined output of more than 2,700 megawatts (MW) in the U.S. to date; in busi- meet the country’s growing demand for wind power. Since then, the facility has been pro- ducing around 600 rotor blades per year for the U.S. market. Each of these blades is 45 meters long and weighs 12 tons. The plant has already reached the limits of its manufacturing capac- ity, which it is now planned to double. Siemens also recently commissioned the construction of a new research and develop- ment center in Boulder, Colorado. Work at the center will be focused on improving the aero- dynamics, static properties, and reliability of Siemens’ wind turbines, thereby further con- solidating the company’s leadership in the U.S. wind energy sector. sw 104 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Innovations for New Markets | Saving Energy in the U.S. One of every three trams and light-rail systems in North America is built by Siemens. The systems help to reduce traffic jams and carbon dioxide emissions. Membrane filters: very clean water, no chemicals. St. Elizabeth’s saves over one million dollars per year. B uildings are real energy hogs. They account for roughly 40 percent of all energy con- sumption worldwide, and their electricity and heat consumption are responsible for about 21 percent of all greenhouse gas emissions. But modern technology can change that gloomy picture, reducing building energy con- sumption by around 30 percent — without sac- rificing comfort. Siemens is among the world’s leading companies specializing in this field. To date, Siemens has used its energy-efficient, en- vironmentally-friendly solutions to optimize more than 6,500 buildings worldwide, realiz- ing total energy savings of more than €2 billion and annual CO 2 emission reductions of 1.2 mil- lion tons. The majority of these buildings are in the U.S. At one location — St. Elizabeth Health Center in Youngstown, Ohio — efficient venti- lation and lighting systems have been provid- ing an atmosphere conducive to well-being since 2002. And the hospital also covers most of its energy needs by means of a special waste-incineration plant. In the first four years alone, the hospital’s operators saved more than Green Buildings Save Big Bucks $5 million on energy costs and were honored together with Siemens in 2006, receiving the Governor’s Award for Excellence in Energy, an honor presented by the State of Ohio. And in Las Vegas, Nevada, Siemens is cur- rently equipping a gigantic construction proj- ect with environmentally-friendly technology. Here, the MGM Mirage hotel chain is building its CityCenter facility, a complex with about 5,500 rooms, a theater, conference center, shopping mall, and even its own power plant. When this “city within a city” opens, a multi- tude of Siemens lighting systems, combined heat and power facilities, water treatment sys- tems, automation systems and motors — for example compressors for the air conditioning systems — will ensure a comfortable stay for guests. Siemens solutions for the project will also satisfy the demanding efficiency require- ments of the U.S. Green Building Council, an organization dedicated to sustainability. Using efficient solutions like these pays off. For ex- ample, most of the motors provided by Siemens are so efficient that they will be amor- tized within one to two years. T ransportation accounts for approximately 14 percent of the world’s total annual greenhouse gas emissions — and a consider- able amount of vehicle emissions is caused by traffic congestion. Traffic jams in the U.S. alone, for example, generate approximately 25 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions each year. Advanced transportation solutions can pro- vide relief — and Siemens’ Mobility Division is one of the market leaders for such solutions in the United States. Melding Public Transport and Traffic Guidance W ater treatment plants need to filter out a variety of substances from dirty water, including germs, agriculture-related toxins, and heavy metals such as lead. One of the most ef- fective water treatment procedures involves the use of membrane filters that are being de- veloped by Siemens in the United States. The filters’ fine hairline fibers hold back viruses, bacteria, and tiny particles when polluted wa- ter is pressed through them at high pressure. What’s more, this process does not require the use of chemical additives. Clean Water for Growing Cities Siemens, the number one company in North America for water and wastewater treat- ment facilities, has installed more than 1,650 membrane systems to date in the U.S. alone. One of the systems can be found in Waxa- hachie, Texas. Faced with a rapidly growing population, in the spring of 2009 the city put into operation a new water treatment plant containing four filter units from Siemens. The facility processes 77.6 million liters of water daily, and plans call for its capacity to be in- creased to more than 300 million liters per day over the next few decades. Another city that is preparing for projected population growth with Siemens technology is Scottsdale, Arizona. There, Siemens has ex- panded the water treatment facility and equipped it with membrane technology. The plant now purifies 190 million liters of water a day, compared to its previous daily capacity of 76.5 million liters. Because of their modular design, Siemens water filters can be used on a very small scale as well. One example is offered by the portable water treatment solution known as SkyHy- drant, which can purify 10,000 liters of drink- ing water per day. The system is used mainly in areas where people have no access to clean drinking water — in parts of Kenya, for exam- ple, as well as in regions of China and Bangladesh that have been devastated by natu- ral disasters. sw Over the past few years, the company has repeatedly demonstrated the benefits offered by efficient, local public-transport networks — and today, one out of every three trams and light-rail systems in North America is built by Siemens. Cities including Los Angeles, San Diego, Houston, and Denver use light-rail sys- tems from Siemens, which helps to get cars off the streets while also reducing the burden on the environment. Such systems, however, represent only one of several options available for significantly re- ducing road traffic. The Mobility Division’s long-term goal in the U.S. is therefore to pool and effectively utilize all traffic-related infor- mation. The first step here has already been taken, with one of every six cities in the U.S. al- ready using a traffic guidance system from Siemens. In the future, transport by car and train will be more effectively aligned with one another through the use of additional solu- tions, such as public transportation informa- tion systems, all of which will help to further reduce CO 2 emissions. sw Siemens is playing a key role in an equally exciting project in Houston, Texas, where the city government intends to modernize its pub- lic buildings. The planning for this multi-phase project calls for Siemens to initially analyze the optimization potential of the 271 structures in question and then determine which solutions can be used to upgrade them. The project also could deliver enormous savings. Experts are ex- pecting not only environmental benefits, but also annual cost reductions totaling several million dollars. sw In Brief Siemens develops products and technolo- gies that are cost-effective, reliable and easy to operate. These S.M.A.R.T. technologies (Simple, Maintenance-friendly, Affordable, Reliable, Timely to market) are customized to the needs of developing and emerging nations and cost much less than conventional solutions. (p. 74) Siemens is developing the kinds of region- ally customized solutions that are in particu- larly high demand in India, including mobile water treatment systems and small power plants that generate environment-friendly electricity from coconuts. The company is also developing intelligent camera systems that can even recognize the size and polish of a grain of rice, yet remain affordable. (p. 83) Siemens is developing customized innova- tions in China. These range from a system that autonomously monitors wind parks, and thus substantially cuts maintenance costs, to combinations of traditional Chinese and Western medicine. (p. 78) In an interview, Rajendra K. Pachauri, No- bel Peace Prize Laureate and Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, says he hopes India will make comprehensive use of renewable energies and provide the poorest of its citizens with access to these energy source. (p. 84) Around 40 percent of cars in Brazil run on alcohol made from sugar cane, and this figure is expected to rise significantly in the future. Siemens is doing its part by providing technol- ogy that saves energy when transforming sugar into fuel. (p. 88) For generations, people living around Lake Victoria in Kenya have been using kerosene lamps to catch fish and light their homes. However, these lamps pose a threat to both health and the environment. Osram is conducting a pilot project that offers people in the area an alternative: battery- powered lamps that provide clean, safe light- ing and can be recharged at solar-powered “hubs.” (p. 92) PEOPLE: S.M.A.R.T. Innovations for China: Dr. Arding Hsu, CT firstname.lastname@example.org Jian Hui Xing, CT email@example.com Qiu Wei, CT firstname.lastname@example.org S.M.A.R.T. Solutions for India: Dr. Mukul Saxena, CT email@example.com Dr. Zubin Varghese, CT firstname.lastname@example.org Dr. Vishnu Swaminathan, CT email@example.com Sameer Prakash, Industry firstname.lastname@example.org Fuel from Sugar Cane: Paulo Costa, Industry email@example.com Osram Energy Hubs: Wolfgang Gregor, Osram firstname.lastname@example.org Jochen Berner, Osram email@example.com Electric Mobility: Prof. Dr. Gernot Spiegelberg, CT T P firstname.lastname@example.org Manfried Kruska, Energy email@example.com Sven Holthusen, Energy firstname.lastname@example.org Dr. Richard Woodling, Siemens Water Technologies Singapore email@example.com Klaus Heidinger, “City of Tomorrow,” Singa- pore. firstname.lastname@example.org LINKS: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change:www.ipcc.ch Global Nature Fund:www.globalnature.org Energy Research Institute New Delhi: www.teriin.org “Lighting a Billion Lives” Initiative: http://.labl.teriin.org Infosys Technologies India: www.infosys.com Siemens Water Technologies: www.water.siemens.com Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 105 | Preview Fall 2009 Preview Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 107 Roads to New Realities The ability to merge different sources of information offers the potential of making complex objects transparent. Whether a surgeon is attempting to place a needle in exactly the right spot, or engineers are planning modifications to a plant while avoiding damage to structures embedded in floors or walls, the ability to see through surfaces offers fundamental advantages and enormous economic value. In medical and industrial areas, Siemens is helping customers to visualize and optimize processes before they happen. Smart Grids According to the International Energy Agency, by 2030 we will be consuming 50 percent more energy; yet, an ever-growing proportion of of that energy will come from renewable sources. But because renewable energy is unpredictable, smart grids are necessary. Such grids will main- tain a balance between energy production from renewable sources, conventional sources, and new storage media such as millions of cars outfitted with electric batteries — not to mention consumers linked through wide-ranging networks. Train to Tomorrow Modernizing Infrastructures Efficiency is indispensable — not only to protect the environment, but also to reduce operating costs. That applies equally to power plants, industrial facilities, traffic net- works, and water supply systems. But what happens when the infrastructure is out- dated or demand has already been satisfied and large investments must be avoided if possible? In these cases, sophisticated modernization programs can help. Even simple measures can significantly boost the performance and service life of older facilities. Would you like to know more about Siemens and our latest developments? 106 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2009 Pictures of the Future | Feedback I would like a free sample issue of Pictures of the Future I would like to cancel my Pictures of the Future subscription My new address is shown below Please also send the magazine to… (Please check the respective box(es) and fill in the address): Title, first name, last name Company Department Street, number ZIP, City Country Telephone number, fax or e-mail Brochure: Corporate Technology — Network of Competencies — Partner for Innovations Study:Sustainable Urban Infrastructures — Munich: Paths to a CO 2 -free Future Book: Innovative Minds — A Look Inside Siemens’ Idea Machine Order from:www.siemens.com/innovation/book Pictures of the Future, Fall 2008 (German, English) Pictures of the Future, Spring 2008 (German, English) Pictures of the Future, Fall 2007 (German, English) Pictures of the Future, Spring 2007 (German, English) Pictures of the Future, Fall 2006 (German, English) Additional information about Siemens innovations is available on the Internet at: www.siemens.com/innovation (Siemens’ R&D website) www.siemens.com/innovationnews (weekly media service) www.siemens.com/pof (Pictures of the Future on the Internet, with downloads — also available in Chinese, French, Russian, and Turkish) We will be glad to send you additional information. Please check the box next to the publication and language edition you need, and fax the page to +49 (0)9131 9192-591 or mail it to: Publicis Publishing — Susan Süß — Postfach 3240, 91050 Erlangen, Germany, or send an e-mail to publishing-address @ publicis-erlangen.de Please use “Pictures of the Future, Spring 2009” as the subject heading. Available issues of Pictures of the Future: From April to the end of November 2009, a “Science Express” will be touring Germany and presenting basic research results from various institutes as well as innovations from Siemens and other companies in 60 cities. Pictures of the Future will provide exten- sive reports on this expedition into the world of tomorrow. © 2009 by Siemens AG. All rights reserved. Siemens Aktiengesellschaft Order number:A19100-F-P132-X-7600 ISSN 1618-5498 www.siemens.com/pof Publisher:Siemens AG Corporate Communications (CC) and Corporate Technology (CT) Wittelsbacherplatz 2, 80333 Munich For the publisher: Dr. Ulrich Eberl (CC), Arthur F. Pease (CT) email@example.com (Tel. +49 89 636 33246) firstname.lastname@example.org (Tel. +49 89 636 48824) Editorial Office: Dr. Ulrich Eberl (ue) (Editor-in-Chief) Arthur F. Pease (afp) (Executive Editor, English Edition) Florian Martini (fm) (Managing Editor) Sebastian Webel (sw) Additional Authors in this Issue: Dr. Norbert Aschenbrenner (na), Bernhard Bartsch, Christian Buck, Anette Freise, Andrea Hoferichter, Ute Kehse, Andreas Kleinschmidt, Friederike von der Kuhlen (fk), Klaudia Kunze, Stephanie Lackerschmid, Dr. Michael Lang, Katrin Nikolaus, Bernd Müller, Dr. Brigitte Röthlein, Dr. Jeanne Rubner, Kirstin Schliekau, Tim Schröder, Rolf Sterbak, Dr. Sylvia Trage, Dr. Evdoxia Tsakiridou, Thomas Veser, Julia Wetjen, Nikola Wohllaib Picture Editing: Judith Egelhof, Irene Kern, Jürgen Winzeck, Publicis Publishing, Munich Photography: Patrick Barth, Kurt Bauer, Daniel Gebhart, Jan Greune, Simon Katzer, Thomas Klink, George Moore, Uwe Mühlhäusser, Bernd Müller, Volker Steger, Jürgen Winzeck Internet (www.siemens.com/pof): Volkmar Dimpfl Hist. Information:Dr. Frank Wittendorfer, Siemens Corporate Archives Address Databank:Susan Süß, Publicis Erlangen Graphic Design /Lithography: Rigobert Ratschke, Büro Seufferle, Stuttgart Illustrations:Natascha Römer, Weinstadt Graphics:Jochen Haller, Büro Seufferle, Stuttgart Translations German – English: Transform GmbH, Köln Translations English – German:Karin Hofmann, Publicis Munich Printing: Bechtle Druck&Service, Esslingen Photo Credits: Look (6 a.r.), Bosch Siemens Hausgeräte (12, 13 l.), Remondis (13 r.), Osram (cover t.l., 4 b., 16, 17, 69 t.l.), Prof. Braungart (18 r.), Prof. Olsen (22), courtesy of Wright Group (36 / 37), Visum (38, 39 l.), Transit (43 l.), Picture alliance / dpa (43 t.r., b.), Volker Steger (52 r.), courtesy of New York Times (68 t.r.), Ulrich Dahl / Press Office TU Berlin (69 r.), Deutsche Bundesstiftung Umwelt (71), courtesy of TERI Institute (75), Dr. Pachauri (84), Dr. Nilekani (86), Franco Turcati (87), O. Ellingvag / D.Naringsliv / Corbis (88), P. Whitaker / Reuters / Corbis (89 b.l., b.r.), S. Maze / Corbis (89 b.m.), Paulo Fridman / Corbis (90), Rinspeed (101), Eileen Claussen (102), Courtesy of Cannon Power Group (103 t.l., b.), Courtesy of Prof. Nassir Navab, TU Munich (107 m.l.). All other images: Copyright Siemens AG Pictures of the Future,Acuson, MicroScan Walkaway, LabPro, Dulux and other names are registered trademarks of Siemens AG or affiliated com- panies. Other product and company names mentioned in this publication may be registered trademarks of their respective companies. Not all of the healthcare products mentioned in this issue are commercially avail- able in the U.S. Some are investigational devices or are under develop- ment and must be approved or reviewed by the FDA and their future availability in the U.S. cannot be assured. The editorial content of the reports in this publication does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the publisher. 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