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Нагрузки и воздействия на здания и сооружения. Явление космогенной эволюции интенсивности глобальных вариаций ежесуточного количества осадков на урбанизированных территориях

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2/2011
ВЕСТНИК
МГСУ
ɇȺȽɊɍɁɄɂ ɂ ȼɈɁȾȿɃɋɌȼɂə ɇȺ ɁȾȺɇɂə ɂ ɋɈɈɊɍɀȿɇɂə.
əȼɅȿɇɂȿ ɄɈɋɆɈȽȿɇɇɈɃ ɗȼɈɅɘɐɂɂ ɂɇɌȿɇɋɂȼɇɈɋɌɂ
ȽɅɈȻȺɅɖɇɕɏ ȼȺɊɂȺɐɂɃ ȿɀȿɋɍɌɈɑɇɈȽɈ ɄɈɅɂɑȿɋɌȼȺ
ɈɋȺȾɄɈȼ ɇȺ ɍɊȻȺɇɂɁɂɊɈȼȺɇɇɕɏ ɌȿɊɊɂɌɈɊɂəɏ
LOADINGS AND INFLUENCES ON BUILDINGS AND CONSTRUCTIONS. THE SPACEGENIC EVOLUTIONS PHENOMENON OF THE
DAILY PRECIPITATION INTENSITY GLOBAL VARIATIONS IN
THE URBANIZED TERRITORIES
ȼ.ɂ. Ɍɟɥɢɱɟɧɤɨ, Ɇ.ɋ. ɏɥɵɫɬɭɧɨɜ, ȼ.ɂ. ɉɪɨɤɨɩɶɟɜ, ɀ.Ƚ. Ɇɨɝɢɥɸɤ
V.I. Telichenko, M.S. Hlystunov, V.I. Prokopjev, J.G. Mogiluk
ɆȽɋɍ
ȼ ɫɬɚɬɶɟ ɪɚɫɫɦɚɬɪɢɜɚɸɬɫɹ ɦɚɬɟɪɢɚɥɵ ɨɬɤɪɵɬɢɹ ɦɟɬɨɞɨɦ ɜɚɪɢɨɦɟɬɪɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ
ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɨɝɨ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ ɧɟɢɡɜɟɫɬɧɨɝɨ ɪɚɧɟɟ ɹɜɥɟɧɢɹ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɟɠɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɝɨ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɚ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ ɜ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɟ ɞɟɣɫɬɜɢɹ ɝɪɚɜɢɞɢɧɚɦɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɜɨɡɦɭɳɟɧɢɣ ɜ ɨɤɨɥɨɡɟɦɧɨɦ ɤɨɫɦɢɱɟɫɤɨɦ ɩɪɨɫɬɪɚɧɫɬɜɟ.
In article are presented materials of opening by a spectral variametric analysis method
of the unknown person before daily precipitation intensity global variations phenomenon as
a gravidynamic indignations action result in a circumterraneous space.
Ɉɞɧɨɣ ɢɡ ɧɚɢɛɨɥɟɟ ɨɫɬɪɵɯ ɩɪɨɛɥɟɦ ɫɨɜɪɟɦɟɧɧɨɝɨ ɫɨɫɬɨɹɧɢɹ ɨɛɴɟɤɬɨɜ ɩɪɨɦɵɲɥɟɧɧɨɝɨ ɢ ɝɪɚɠɞɚɧɫɤɨɝɨ ɫɬɪɨɢɬɟɥɶɫɬɜɚ ɢ ɀɄɏ ɊɎ ɜ ɧɚɫɬɨɹɳɟɟ ɜɪɟɦɹ ɹɜɥɹɟɬɫɹ ɡɧɚɱɢɬɟɥɶɧɵɣ ɢɡɧɨɫ ɢɧɠɟɧɟɪɧɵɯ ɫɟɬɟɣ ɢ ɤɨɦɦɭɧɢɤɚɰɢɣ, ɚ ɬɚɤɠɟ ɫɬɪɨɢɬɟɥɶɧɵɯ ɤɨɧɫɬɪɭɤɰɢɣ ɡɞɚɧɢɣ ɢ ɫɨɨɪɭɠɟɧɢɣ, ɜɤɥɸɱɚɹ ɞɟɝɪɚɞɚɰɢɸ ɤɥɢɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɭɫɬɨɣɱɢɜɨɫɬɢ ɫɬɪɨɢɬɟɥɶɧɵɯ ɦɚɬɟɪɢɚɥɨɜ, ɝɟɨɬɟɯɧɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɧɚɞɟɠɧɨɫɬɢ ɫɬɪɨɢɬɟɥɶɧɵɯ ɫɢɫɬɟɦ ɬɢɩɚ «ɨɛɴɟɤɬɨɫɧɨɜɚɧɢɟ», ɝɢɞɪɨɬɟɯɧɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɢ ɩɨɞɡɟɦɧɵɯ ɫɨɨɪɭɠɟɧɢɣ, ɢɯ ɨɫɧɨɜɚɧɢɣ.
ɗɬɚ ɩɪɨɛɥɟɦɚ, ɤɚɤ ɜ Ɋɨɫɫɢɢ, ɬɚɤ ɢ ɡɚ ɪɭɛɟɠɨɦ, ɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɨ ɨɛɨɫɬɪɹɟɬɫɹ ɧɟ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɢɪɭɟɦɵɦ ɪɚɧɟɟ ɪɨɫɬɨɦ ɢɧɬɟɧɫɢɜɧɨɫɬɢ ɚɜɚɪɢɣɧɨ ɨɩɚɫɧɵɯ ɤɥɢɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ, ɝɟɨɥɨɝɨɝɟɨɮɢɡɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ, ɝɢɞɪɨɝɟɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɢ ɝɢɞɪɨɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɨɜ, ɜɤɥɸɱɚɹ, ɫ
ɨɞɧɨɣ ɫɬɨɪɨɧɵ, ɧɚɜɨɞɧɟɧɢɹ, ɫɜɟɪɯɩɪɨɟɤɬɧɵɟ ɥɢɜɧɟɜɵɟ ɨɫɚɞɤɢ, ɩɨɞɴɟɦ ɝɪɭɧɬɨɜɵɯ ɜɨɞ
ɢ ɤɚɩɢɥɥɹɪɧɨɣ ɤɚɣɦɵ ɜ ɪɚɫɱɟɬɧɨɦ ɨɛɴɟɦɟ ɨɫɧɨɜɚɧɢɣ, ɚ ɫ ɞɪɭɝɨɣ, ɡɚɫɭɯɢ ɢ ɪɟɡɤɨɟ ɫɧɢɠɟɧɢɟ ɭɪɨɜɧɹ ɢ ɞɚɜɥɟɧɢɹ ɝɪɭɧɬɨɜɵɯ ɜɨɞ ɢ ɬ.ɩ. ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɵ.
ȼ ɫɬɚɬɶɟ ɪɚɫɫɦɚɬɪɢɜɚɸɬɫɹ ɨɫɧɨɜɧɵɟ ɦɚɬɟɪɢɚɥɵ ɢɫɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɧɢɣ ɚɜɬɨɪɨɜ ɜ ɨɛɥɚɫɬɢ
ɨɛɧɚɪɭɠɟɧɢɹ, ɤɥɚɫɫɢɮɢɤɚɰɢɢ, ɢɧɬɟɪɩɪɟɬɚɰɢɢ ɢ ɜɟɪɢɮɢɤɚɰɢɢ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɯ (ɩɥɚɧɟɬɚɪɧɨɝɨ ɦɚɫɲɬɚɛɚ) ɤɨɥɟɛɚɧɢɣ ɢɧɬɟɧɫɢɜɧɨɫɬɢ ɝɢɞɪɨɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɢ ɝɢɞɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ
ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɨɜ, ɜ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɟ ɤɨɬɨɪɵɯ ɛɵɥɨ ɨɬɤɪɵɬɨ ɧɟɢɡɜɟɫɬɧɨɟ ɪɚɧɟɟ ɹɜɥɟɧɢɟ ɤɨɫɦɨɝɟɧɧɨɣ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɢ ɢɧɬɟɧɫɢɜɧɨɫɬɢ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɤɨɥɟɛɚɧɢɣ ɟɠɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɝɨ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɚ
ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ (Precipitation amount) ɧɚ Ɂɟɦɥɟ, ɜ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɟ ɞɟɣɫɬɜɢɹ ɝɪɚɜɢɞɢɧɚɦɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ
ɜɨɡɦɭɳɟɧɢɣ ɜ ɨɤɨɥɨɡɟɦɧɨɦ ɤɨɫɦɢɱɟɫɤɨɦ ɩɪɨɫɬɪɚɧɫɬɜɟ.
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Ⱦɥɹ ɜɟɪɢɮɢɤɚɰɢɢ ɷɬɨɝɨ ɹɜɥɟɧɢɹ, ɚ ɬɚɤɠɟ ɜ ɰɟɥɹɯ ɢɞɟɧɬɢɮɢɤɚɰɢɢ ɩɪɢɱɢɧɧɨɫɥɟɞɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɯ ɫɜɹɡɟɣ ɢ ɝɪɚɜɢɞɢɧɚɦɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɦɟɯɚɧɢɡɦɚ ɟɝɨ ɪɟɚɥɢɡɚɰɢɢ, ɚɜɬɨɪɚɦɢ ɛɵɥ
ɩɪɢɦɟɧɟɧ ɦɟɬɨɞ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɨɝɨ ɜɚɪɢɚɦɟɬɪɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɨɧɧɵɯ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɨɜ ɩɨ
ɞɚɧɧɵɦ ɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɣ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɟɠɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɝɨ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɚ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ ɜ
ɪɹɞɟ ɝɟɨɝɪɚɮɢɱɟɫɤɢ ɪɚɡɧɟɫɟɧɧɵɯ ɝɨɪɨɞɨɜ Ɂɟɦɥɢ (Ɇɨɫɤɜɚ, Ʌɨɧɞɨɧ, Ⱥɧɤɨɪɢɞɠ, ȻɭɷɧɨɫȺɣɪɟɫ, Ʉɚɧɛɟɪɪɚ, Ɍɨɤɢɨ ɢ ɞɪ.) ɜ ɩɟɪɢɨɞɵ: ɞɨ ɢ ɩɨɫɥɟ ɜɡɪɵɜɚ ɤɨɦɟɬɵ ɒɭɦɟɣɤɟɪɚ-Ʌɟɜɢ ɧɚ
ɘɩɢɬɟɪɟ. Ɍɚɤɨɟ ɫɨɩɨɫɬɚɜɥɟɧɢɟ, «ɞɨ ɢ ɩɨɫɥɟ», ɛɵɥɨ ɜɵɛɪɚɧɨ ɜ ɰɟɥɹɯ ɨɛɧɚɪɭɠɟɧɢɹ ɜɥɢɹɧɢɹ
ɜɫɩɥɟɫɤɚ ɝɪɚɜɢɬɚɰɢɨɧɧɨɝɨ ɜɨɡɦɭɳɟɧɢɹ ɜ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɟ ɜɡɪɵɜɚ ɤɨɦɟɬɵ ɧɚ ɘɩɢɬɟɪɟ (ɫ 16 ɩɨ
22 ɢɸɥɹ 1994 ɝɨɞɚ) ɜ ɩɪɟɞɟɥɚɯ ɫɨɥɧɟɱɧɨɣ ɫɢɫɬɟɦɵ ɧɚ ɚɤɬɢɜɚɰɢɸ ɤɨɫɦɨ-ɡɟɦɧɵɯ ɫɜɹɡɟɣ ɢ
ɨɠɢɞɚɟɦɨɟ ɩɨɫɥɟɞɭɸɳɟɟ «ɜɨɡɛɭɠɞɟɧɢɟ» ɩɪɢɪɨɞɧɵɯ ɝɢɞɪɨɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɢ ɝɢɞɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɨɜ ɧɚ Ɂɟɦɥɟ ɢɥɢ ɨɬɫɭɬɫɬɜɢɟ ɬɚɤɨɝɨ ɜɥɢɹɧɢɹ.
Ɋɢɫ. 1. ɋɯɟɦɚ ɩɪɟɞɩɨɥɚɝɚɟɦɨɝɨ ɦɟɯɚɧɢɡɦɚ ɜɥɢɹɧɢɹ ɝɪɚɜɢɬɚɰɢɨɧɧɨɝɨ ɜɨɡɦɭɳɟɧɢɹ ɧɚ
ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɢ ɢɧɬɟɧɫɢɜɧɨɫɬɢ ɤɨɥɟɛɚɧɢɣ ɟɠɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɝɨ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɚ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ ɧɚ Ɂɟɦɥɟ
Ⱦɥɹ ɩɨɫɬɚɧɨɜɤɢ ɡɚɞɚɱɢ ɢɫɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɛɵɥɚ ɫɮɨɪɦɭɥɢɪɨɜɚɧɚ ɝɢɩɨɬɟɡɚ, ɜ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɟ ɨɛɨɫɧɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɤɨɬɨɪɨɣ ɛɵɥɚ ɪɚɡɪɚɛɨɬɚɧɚ ɦɨɞɟɥɶ (ɪɢɫ.1) ɦɟɯɚɧɢɡɦɚ ɚɤɬɢɜɚɰɢɢ ɩɪɢɱɢɧɧɨ-ɫɥɟɞɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɯ ɫɜɹɡɟɣ ɝɪɚɜɢɬɚɰɢɨɧɧɨɝɨ ɜɨɡɦɭɳɟɧɢɹ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɢɧɬɟɧɫɢɜɧɨɫɬɢ
ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɤɨɥɟɛɚɧɢɣ ɟɠɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɝɨ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɚ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ, ɞɨɫɬɨɜɟɪɧɨ ɪɟɝɢɫɬɪɢɪɭɟɦɵɯ
ɫɟɬɶɸ ɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɫɬɚɧɰɢɣ.
Ɋɢɫ.2. Ȼɥɨɤ-ɫɯɟɦɚ ɚɥɝɨɪɢɬɦɚ ɪɟɚɥɢɡɚɰɢɢ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɨɝɨ ɜɚɪɢɨɦɟɬɪɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɢ
ɢɧɬɟɧɫɢɜɧɨɫɬɢ ɤɨɥɟɛɚɧɢɣ ɟɠɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɝɨ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɚ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ ɜ ɩɟɪɢɨɞɵ [t1,t2] ɢ [t3,t4]
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Ɉɩɟɪɚɰɢɨɧɧɚɹ ɫɯɟɦɚ, ɨɬɪɚɠɚɸɳɚɹ ɨɞɢɧ ɢɡ ɜɚɪɢɚɧɬɨɜ ɩɪɢɦɟɧɟɧɢɹ ɦɟɬɨɞɚ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɨɝɨ ɜɚɪɢɚɦɟɬɪɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɢ ɢɧɬɟɧɫɢɜɧɨɫɬɢ ɤɨɥɟɛɚɧɢɣ ɟɠɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɝɨ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɚ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ (Precipitation amount) ɊɊ(t) ɧɚ Ɂɟɦɥɟ, ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɥɟɧɚ ɛɥɨɤɫɯɟɦɨɣ ɚɥɝɨɪɢɬɦɚ ɟɝɨ ɪɟɚɥɢɡɚɰɢɢ ɧɚ ɪɢɫɭɧɤɟ 2.
ɉɨ ɷɬɨɣ ɫɯɟɦɟ ɜ ɩɟɪɜɨɦ ɛɥɨɤɟ ɨɩɟɪɚɰɢɣ ɮɨɪɦɢɪɭɟɬɫɹ ɦɚɫɫɢɜ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ ɦɟɬɟɨɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɣ ɟɠɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɝɨ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɚ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ ɡɚ ɩɟɪɢɨɞ [t1,t2], ɜɨ ɜɬɨɪɨɦ – ɜɵɞɟɥɹɸɬɫɹ
ɢ ɧɨɪɦɢɪɭɸɬɫɹ ɩɨ ɦɚɤɫɢɦɚɥɶɧɨɦɭ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɸ ɡɚ ɩɟɪɢɨɞ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɣ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɢ ɷɬɨɝɨ
ɩɚɪɚɦɟɬɪɚ, ɧɚ ɬɪɟɬɶɟɦ – ɜɵɱɢɫɥɹɟɬɫɹ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɵɣ ɨɛɪɚɡ ɷɬɢɯ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ.
Ⱦɚɥɟɟ, ɧɚ ɱɟɬɜɟɪɬɨɦ ɷɬɚɩɟ, ɮɨɪɦɢɪɭɟɬɫɹ ɬɟɨɪɟɬɢɱɟɫɤɚɹ ɝɢɩɨɬɟɡɚ ɢɥɢ ɢɧɬɟɪɩɪɟɬɚɰɢɹ ɦɟɯɚɧɢɡɦɚ, ɩɪɢɱɢɧɧɨ-ɫɥɟɞɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɯ ɫɜɹɡɟɣ ɢ ɡɚɤɨɧɨɦɟɪɧɨɫɬɟɣ ɪɟɚɥɢɡɚɰɢɢ ɢɫɫɥɟɞɭɟɦɨɝɨ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɚ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɢ ɢɧɬɟɧɫɢɜɧɨɫɬɢ ɤɨɥɟɛɚɧɢɣ ɟɠɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɝɨ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɚ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ, ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɵɣ ɨɛɪɚɡ ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɦɨɞɟɥɢ ɤɨɬɨɪɨɝɨ ɆɊɊ(f), ɩɨɥɭɱɟɧɧɵɣ ɩɭɬɟɦ
ɩɪɟɨɛɪɚɡɨɜɚɧɢɹ Ɏɭɪɶɟ ɟɝɨ ɧɨɪɦɢɪɨɜɚɧɧɵɯ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ, ɫɨɩɨɫɬɚɜɥɹɟɬɫɹ (ɨɩɟɪɚɰɢɹ «5»)
ɫɨ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɦɢ ɧɨɪɦɢɪɨɜɚɧɧɵɯ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ ɦɟɬɟɨɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɣ. ȼ ɫɥɭɱɚɟ ɫɨɜɩɚɞɟɧɢɹ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɨɜ ɦɨɞɟɥɶɧɵɯ ɢ ɧɚɬɭɪɧɵɯ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɬɟɨɪɟɬɢɱɟɫɤɚɹ ɦɨɞɟɥɶ ɦɨɠɟɬ ɛɵɬɶ ɜɟɪɢɮɢɰɢɪɨɜɚɧɚ, ɤɚɤ ɚɞɟɤɜɚɬɧɚɹ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɟɦɨɦɭ ɹɜɥɟɧɢɸ ɤɨɫɦɨɝɟɧɧɨɣ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɢ ɢɧɬɟɧɫɢɜɧɨɫɬɢ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɤɨɥɟɛɚɧɢɣ ɟɠɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɝɨ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɚ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ ɧɚ ɭɪɛɚɧɢɡɢɪɨɜɚɧɧɵɯ ɬɟɪɪɢɬɨɪɢɹɯ ɜ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɟ ɞɟɣɫɬɜɢɹ ɝɪɚɜɢɞɢɧɚɦɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɜɨɡɦɭɳɟɧɢɣ ɜ ɨɤɨɥɨɡɟɦɧɨɦ ɤɨɫɦɢɱɟɫɤɨɦ ɩɪɨɫɬɪɚɧɫɬɜɟ. ɋɨɩɨɫɬɚɜɥɟɧɢɟ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɨɜ (2-1) ɢ (2-1ɚ) ɩɨɡɜɨɥɢɬ ɜɵɹɜɢɬɶ ɧɨɜɵɟ ɢɥɢ ɪɨɫɬ ɚɤɬɢɜɧɨɫɬɢ ɭɱɬɟɧɧɵɯ ɪɚɧɟɟ ɩɪɢɱɢɧɧɨ-ɫɥɟɞɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɯ ɫɜɹɡɟɣ ɤɨɫɦɨɝɟɧɧɨɣ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɢ ɢɧɬɟɧɫɢɜɧɨɫɬɢ ɤɨɥɟɛɚɧɢɣ ɟɠɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɝɨ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɚ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ ɜ
ɩɟɪɢɨɞ [t3,t4] ɩɨɫɥɟ ɜɡɪɵɜɚ ɤɨɦɟɬɵ ɩɨ ɫɪɚɜɧɟɧɢɸ ɫ ɛɨɥɟɟ ɪɚɧɧɢɦ ɩɟɪɢɨɞɨɦ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɣ ɞɨ ɜɡɪɵɜɚ [t1,t2].
ɉɨɤɚɡɚɬɟɥɟɦ ɚɞɟɤɜɚɬɧɨɫɬɢ ɬɟɨɪɟɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɦɨɞɟɥɢ ɜ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɨɛɥɚɫɬɢ ɛɭɞɟɬ
ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɟ ɤɨɷɮɮɢɰɢɟɧɬɚ ɤɪɨɫɫɤɨɪɪɟɥɹɰɢɢ ɢɥɢ ɫɜɟɪɬɤɢ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɨɛɪɚɡɨɜ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɟɦɨɝɨ ɢ ɦɨɞɟɥɢɪɭɟɦɨɝɨ ɩɨ ɝɢɩɨɬɟɡɟ ɢɫɫɥɟɞɭɟɦɨɝɨ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɚ (ɪɢɫ.3).
Ɋɢɫ.3. ȼɚɪɢɚɧɬ ɛɥɨɤ-ɫɯɟɦɵ ɚɥɝɨɪɢɬɦɚ ɨɩɟɪɚɰɢɣ ɩɨ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɜɟɪɢɮɢɤɚɰɢɢ ɬɟɨɪɟɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ
ɦɨɞɟɥɢ ɤɨɫɦɨɝɟɧɧɨɣ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɢ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɟɠɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɝɨ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɚ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ
ȼɚɪɢɚɦɟɬɪɢɱɟɫɤɢɣ ɚɧɚɥɢɡ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɢ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɟɠɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɝɨ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɚ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ,
ɩɪɨɜɟɞɟɧɧɵɣ ɚɜɬɨɪɚɦɢ ɩɨ ɞɚɧɧɵɦ ɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɣ ɜ ɪɹɞɟ ɝɟɨɝɪɚɮɢɱɟɫɤɢ
ɪɚɡɧɟɫɟɧɧɵɯ ɝɨɪɨɞɨɜ Ɂɟɦɥɢ (Ɇɨɫɤɜɚ, Ʌɨɧɞɨɧ, Ⱥɧɤɨɪɢɞɠ, Ȼɭɷɧɨɫ-Ⱥɣɪɟɫ, Ʉɚɧɛɟɪɪɚ, Ɍɨɤɢɨ
ɢ ɞɪ.) ɩɨɤɚɡɚɥ, ɱɬɨ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɹ ɢɧɬɟɧɫɢɜɧɨɫɬɢ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɟɠɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɝɨ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɚ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ
ɜɨ ɜɫɟɯ ɝɨɪɨɞɚɯ, ɬɚɤɠɟ ɤɚɤ ɢ ɞɥɹ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɧɵɯ ɢ ɚɷɪɨɞɢɧɚɦɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɨɜ, ɤɚɤ ɩɪɚɜɢɥɨ, ɫɨɞɟɪɠɢɬ ɞɜɟ ɤɨɦɩɨɧɟɧɬɵ: ɨɞɧɚ ɢɡ ɧɢɯ ɧɨɫɢɬ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɣ ɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪ ɢ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɟɬɫɹ ɜɨ
ɜɫɟɯ ɩɟɪɟɱɢɫɥɟɧɧɵɯ ɝɨɪɨɞɚɯ, ɚ ɜɬɨɪɚɹ ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɥɹɟɬ ɫɨɛɨɣ ɨɬɪɚɠɟɧɢɟ ɥɨɤɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɩɪɢɪɨɞɧɵɯ ɢ ɬɟɯɧɨɝɟɧɧɵɯ ɩɪɨɹɜɥɟɧɢɣ ɤɥɢɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɢ ɨɪɨɝɪɚɮɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɨɫɨɛɟɧɧɨɫɬɟɣ ɩɪɢɥɟɠɚɳɟɣ ɤ ɝɨɪɨɞɚɦ ɬɟɪɪɢɬɨɪɢɢ ɢ ɩɨɞɥɟɠɢɬ ɤɥɢɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɦɭ ɪɚɣɨɧɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɸ ɩɨ ɟɠɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɦɭ
49
ВЕСТНИК
МГСУ
2/2011
ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɭ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ, ɧɚɩɪɢɦɟɪ, ɧɚ ɩɪɟɞɦɟɬ ɜɵɞɟɥɟɧɢɹ ɢɥɢ ɢɞɟɧɬɢɮɢɤɚɰɢɢ ɢɯ ɞɨɦɢɧɢɪɭɸɳɢɯ ɥɨɤɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɰɢɤɥɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ (ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɵɯ) ɤɨɦɩɨɧɟɧɬ.
ɇɚɩɪɢɦɟɪ, ɞɥɹ ɤɨɧɤɪɟɬɧɨɝɨ j-ɝɨ ɝɨɪɨɞɚ ɢɥɢ ɤɨɧɤɪɟɬɧɨɣ j-ɨɣ ɭɪɛɚɧɢɡɢɪɨɜɚɧɧɨɣ
ɬɟɪɪɢɬɨɪɢɢ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɹ ɢɧɬɟɧɫɢɜɧɨɫɬɢ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɟɠɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɝɨ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɚ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ ɜ
ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɨɦ ɨɬɨɛɪɚɠɟɧɢɢ ɛɭɞɟɬ ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɥɟɧɚ ɜ ɜɢɞɟ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɮɭɧɤɰɢɢ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɢ k PPj ( f ) , ɬɨ ɬɨɝɞɚ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɚɹ ɫɨɫɬɚɜɥɹɸɳɚɹ K PPɝɥ ( f ) ɦɨɠɟɬ ɛɵɬɶ ɜɵɞɟɥɟɧɚ ɜ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɟ ɤɪɨɫɫɤɨɪɪɟɥɹɰɢɢ ɜ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɨɛɥɚɫɬɢ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɨɧɧɵɯ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɵɯ
ɮɭɧɤɰɢɣ ɩɨ ɜɫɟɦ ɢɫɫɥɟɞɭɟɦɵɦ ɝɨɪɨɞɚɦ ɢɥɢ ɬɟɪɪɢɬɨɪɢɹɦ, ɬɨ ɟɫɬɶ
1
ª J
ºJ
K PPɝɥ ( f ) «– k PPj ( f ) » ,
¬j1
¼
ɝɞɟ J – ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɨ ɥɨɤɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɬɨɱɟɤ (ɪɚɣɨɧɨɜ) ɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɹ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɟɠɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɝɨ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɚ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ.
ȼ ɫɜɨɸ ɨɱɟɪɟɞɶ ɫɨɫɬɚɜɥɹɸɳɚɹ ɥɨɤɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɩɪɨɹɜɥɟɧɢɣ ɦɟɫɬɧɵɯ (ɥɨɤɚɥɶɧɵɯ) ɡɚɤɨɧɨɦɟɪɧɨɫɬɟɣ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɢ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɟɠɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɝɨ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɚ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ ɜ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɨɦ
ɨɬɨɛɪɚɠɟɧɢɢ ɞɥɹ ɤɨɧɤɪɟɬɧɨɝɨ j-ɝɨ ɝɨɪɨɞɚ ɢɥɢ ɤɨɧɤɪɟɬɧɨɣ j-ɨɣ ɭɪɛɚɧɢɡɢɪɨɜɚɧɧɨɣ ɬɟɪɪɢɬɨɪɢɢ ɦɨɠɟɬ ɛɵɬɶ ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɥɟɧɚ ɜɵɪɚɠɟɧɢɟɦ:
1
K PPɥɨɤ ( f )
K PPj ( f ) k PPj ( f ) ª¬ k PPj ( f ) K PPɝɥ ( f ) º¼ 2 .
Ɋɚɫɫɦɨɬɪɢɦ ɩɨɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɬɟɥɶɧɨɫɬɶ ɚɧɚɥɢɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɨɩɟɪɚɰɢɣ ɩɨ ɨɛɧɚɪɭɠɟɧɢɸ ɢ ɜɟɪɢɮɢɤɚɰɢɢ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɡɚɤɨɧɨɦɟɪɧɨɫɬɟɣ ɜɥɢɹɧɢɹ ɜɫɩɥɟɫɤɚ ɝɪɚɜɢɬɚɰɢɨɧɧɵɯ ɜɨɡɦɭɳɟɧɢɣ ɜ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɟ ɜɡɪɵɜɚ ɤɨɦɟɬɵ ɧɚ ɘɩɢɬɟɪɟ ɧɚ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɸ ɢɧɬɟɧɫɢɜɧɨɫɬɢ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ
ɟɠɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɝɨ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɚ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ (Precipitation amount) ¢ɊɊ(t)² ɩɨ ɨɮɢɰɢɚɥɶɧɵɦ ɞɚɧɧɵɦ ɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɣ ɜ ɝɨɪɨɞɚɯ: Ʌɨɧɞɨɧ, Ⱥɧɤɨɪɢɞɠ, Ȼɭɷɧɨɫ-Ⱥɣɪɟɫ ɢ
Ʉɚɧɛɟɪɪɚ.
Ⱦɥɹ ɢɫɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɢ ɜɟɪɢɮɢɤɚɰɢɢ, ɜ ɫɥɭɱɚɟ ɩɨɞɬɜɟɪɠɞɟɧɢɹ ɝɢɩɨɬɟɡɵ, ɪɚɫɫɦɚɬɪɢɜɚɟɦɨɝɨ ɹɜɥɟɧɢɹ ɛɵɥɢ ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɧɵ ɞɚɧɧɵɟ ɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɣ ɟɠɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɝɨ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɚ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ ɜ ɭɤɚɡɚɧɧɵɯ ɜɵɲɟ ɝɨɪɨɞɚɯ ɜ ɩɟɪɢɨɞ ɫ ɹɧɜɚɪɹ 1973 ɝɨɞɚ ɩɨ
ɚɜɝɭɫɬ 2009 ɝɨɞɚ ɜɤɥɸɱɢɬɟɥɶɧɨ.
ɉɪɢ ɩɨɫɬɪɨɟɧɢɢ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɨɜ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɟɠɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɝɨ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɚ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɥɢɫɶ ɞɜɚ ɦɚɫɫɢɜɚ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ: ɞɨ ([t1,t2] - ɫ ɹɧɜɚɪɹ 1973 ɝɨɞɚ ɩɨ ɞɟɤɚɛɪɶ 1993 ɝɨɞɚ, ɜɤɥɸɱɢɬɟɥɶɧɨ) ɢ ɩɨɫɥɟ ɩɚɞɟɧɢɹ ɤɨɦɟɬɵ ɒɭɦɟɣɤɟɪɚ - Ʌɟɜɢ ɧɚ ɩɥɚɧɟɬɭ ɘɩɢɬɟɪ ([t3,t4] - ɫ
ɚɜɝɭɫɬɚ 1994 ɝɨɞɚ ɩɨ ɚɜɝɭɫɬ 2009 ɝɨɞɚ ɜɤɥɸɱɢɬɟɥɶɧɨ). Ʉɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɨ ɫɭɬɨɤ ɩɟɪɜɨɝɨ ɩɟɪɢɨɞɚ ɫɨɫɬɚɜɥɹɟɬ 7670, ɱɬɨ ɫɨɨɬɜɟɬɫɬɜɭɟɬ ɩɪɢ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɨɦ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɟ ɦɢɧɢɦɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɜɵɞɟɥɹɟɦɨɣ ɱɚɫɬɨɬɟ fmin=1,50900575*10-9 Ƚɰ, ɚ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɨ ɫɭɬɨɤ ɜɬɨɪɨɝɨ ɩɟɪɢɨɞɚ ɫɨɫɬɚɜɥɹɟɬ 5488, ɱɬɨ ɫɨɨɬɜɟɬɫɬɜɭɟɬ ɩɪɢ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɨɦ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɟ ɦɢɧɢɦɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɜɵɞɟɥɹɟɦɨɣ ɱɚɫɬɨɬɟ fmin=2,10897851*10-9 Ƚɰ. ɍɱɢɬɵɜɚɹ ɧɟɪɟɝɭɥɹɪɧɵɣ ɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪ ɜɵɛɨɪɨɤ ɟɠɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɝɨ
ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɚ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ, ɜɟɪɯɧɹɹ ɝɪɚɧɢɱɧɚɹ ɱɚɫɬɨɬɚ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɨɝɨ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ ɛɵɥɚ ɩɨɧɢɠɟɧɚ
ɞɨ fmɚɯ =2.89*10-6 Ƚɰ, ɱɬɨ ɫɨɨɬɜɟɬɫɬɜɭɟɬ 4 ɫɭɬɤɚɦ ɩɨ ɩɟɪɢɨɞɭ ɰɢɤɥɚ.
Ɉɫɧɨɜɧɵɟ ɱɚɫɬɨɬɵ ɝɪɚɜɢɬɚɰɢɨɧɧɵɯ ɜɨɡɦɭɳɟɧɢɣ, ɜɵɡɜɚɧɧɵɯ ɞɜɢɠɟɧɢɟɦ ɩɥɚɧɟɬ
ɫɨɥɧɟɱɧɨɣ ɫɢɫɬɟɦɵ ɢ Ʌɭɧɵ, ɫɨɨɬɜɟɬɫɬɜɭɸɳɢɟ ɩɟɪɢɨɞɚɦ ɨɛɪɚɳɟɧɢɹ, ɪɚɞɢɚɥɶɧɵɦ ɝɪɚɜɢɞɢɧɚɦɢɱɟɫɤɢɦ ɪɟɡɨɧɚɧɫɚɦ ɢ ɢɯ ɨɫɧɨɜɧɵɦ ɥɢɧɟɣɧɵɦ ɢ ɤɨɦɛɢɧɢɪɨɜɚɧɧɵɦ ɝɚɪɦɨɧɢɤɚɦ ɛɵɥɢ ɜɡɹɬɵ ɢɡ ɬɚɛɥɢɰɵ 1 ɩɟɪɜɨɣ ɫɬɚɬɶɢ ɞɚɧɧɨɣ ɫɟɪɢɢ ɩɭɛɥɢɤɚɰɢɣ, ɜ ɞɢɚɩɚɡɨɧɟ
ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɨɝɨ ɩɪɟɨɛɪɚɡɨɜɚɧɢɹ (fmin-fmɚɯ), ɬɨ ɟɫɬɶ ɨɬ 2,1*10-9 ɞɨ 2,89*10-6 Ƚɰ, ɱɬɨ ɫɨɨɬɜɟɬɫɬɜɭɟɬ ɩɟɪɢɨɞɚɦ ɨɬ 4 ɞɨ 5488 ɫɭɬɨɤ.
ɇɚ ɪɢɫ.4 - ɪɢɫ.5 ɩɪɢɜɟɞɟɧɵ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɵ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɟɠɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɝɨ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɚ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ ɜ
ɝɨɪɨɞɚɯ Ʌɨɧɞɨɧɟ, Ⱥɧɤɨɪɢɞɠɟ, Ȼɭɷɧɨɫ-Ⱥɣɪɟɫɟ ɢ Ʉɚɧɛɟɪɪɟ (ɫɢɧɹɹ ɢɥɢ ɧɢɠɧɹɹ ɨɝɢɛɚɸɳɚɹ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚ - ɩɨ ɞɚɧɧɵɦ ɫ ɹɧɜɚɪɹ 1973 ɝɨɞɚ ɩɨ ɞɟɤɚɛɪɶ 1993 ɝɨɞɚ, ɤɪɚɫɧɚɹ ɢɥɢ ɜɟɪɯɧɹɹ
- ɫ ɚɜɝɭɫɬɚ 1994 ɝɨɞɚ ɩɨ ɚɜɝɭɫɬ 2009 ɝɨɞɚ ɜɤɥɸɱɢɬɟɥɶɧɨ)
50
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МГСУ
Ɋɢɫ.4. ɋɩɟɤɬɪ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɟɠɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɝɨ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɚ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ ɜ Ʌɨɧɞɨɧɟ
ɍɱɢɬɵɜɚɹ ɨɬɫɭɬɫɬɜɢɟ ɜ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ ɦɟɬɟɨɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɣ ɩɨ Ɇɨɫɤɜɟ ɢ Ɍɨɤɢɨ ɦɧɨɝɨɫɭɬɨɱɧɵɯ
ɮɪɚɝɦɟɧɬɨɜ ɡɚɩɢɫɟɣ ɟɠɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɝɨ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɚ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ, ɜ ɧɚɫɬɨɹɳɟɦ ɢɫɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɧɢɢ ɛɭɞɭɬ
ɪɚɫɫɦɨɬɪɟɧɵ ɬɨɥɶɤɨ ɞɚɧɧɵɟ ɩɨ Ʌɨɧɞɨɧɭ, Ȼɭɷɧɨɫ-Ⱥɣɪɟɫɭ, Ʉɚɧɛɟɪɪɟ ɢ Ⱥɧɤɨɪɢɞɠɭ.
Ɋɢɫ.5. ɋɩɟɤɬɪ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɟɠɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɝɨ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɚ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ ɜ Ʉɚɧɛɟɪɪɟ
Ɋɢɫ.6. Ʉɪɨɫɫɤɨɪɪɟɥɹɰɢɨɧɧɵɣ ɫɩɟɤɬɪ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɟɠɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɝɨ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɚ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ ɜ Ʌɨɧɞɨɧɟ,
Ⱥɧɤɨɪɢɞɠɟ, Ȼɭɷɧɨɫ-Ⱥɣɪɟɫɟ ɢ Ʉɚɧɛɟɪɪɟ
ȼ ɤɪɨɫɫɤɨɪɪɟɥɹɰɢɨɧɧɨɦ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɟ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɟɠɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɝɨ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɚ
ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ (ɩɨ ɞɚɧɧɵɦ ɦɟɬɟɨɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɣ ɜ Ʌɨɧɞɨɧɟ, Ⱥɧɤɨɪɢɞɠɟ, Ȼɭɷɧɨɫ-Ⱥɣɪɟɫɟ ɢ Ʉɚɧɛɟɪɪɟ) ɞɨɫɬɚɬɨɱɧɨ ɪɟɥɶɟɮɧɨ ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɥɟɧɵ ɰɢɤɥɵ ɢ ɪɟɡɨɧɚɧɫɵ ɝɪɚɜɢɬɚɰɢɨɧɧɵɯ ɜɨɡɦɭɳɟɧɢɣ ɜ ɨɤɨɥɨɡɟɦɧɨɦ ɤɨɫɦɢɱɟɫɤɨɦ ɩɪɨɫɬɪɚɧɫɬɜɟ, ɜ ɬɨɦ ɱɢɫɥɟ, ɜ ɩɨɪɹɞɤɟ ɭɛɵɜɚɧɢɹ
ɢɧɬɟɧɫɢɜɧɨɫɬɢ ɝɢɞɪɨɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɢ ɝɢɞɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɩɪɨɹɜɥɟɧɢɣ ɧɚ Ɂɟɦɥɟ:
ɤɨɦɛɢɧɚɰɢɨɧɧɚɹ ɝɚɪɦɨɧɢɤɚ ɫɭɦɦɵ ɱɚɫɬɨɬ ɨɛɪɚɳɟɧɢɹ Ɂɟɦɥɢ ɢ ɘɩɢɬɟɪɚ, ɫ ɩɟɪɢɨɞɨɦ - 336,85 ɫɭɬɨɤ;
51
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МГСУ
2/2011
ɤɨɦɛɢɧɚɰɢɨɧɧɚɹ ɝɚɪɦɨɧɢɤɚ ɪɚɡɧɨɫɬɢ ɱɚɫɬɨɬ ɨɛɪɚɳɟɧɢɹ Ɂɟɦɥɢ ɢ ȼɟɧɟɪɵ ɫ ɩɟɪɢɨɞɨɦ – 583,92 ɫɭɬɨɤ;
ɱɚɫɬɨɬɚ ɨɛɪɚɳɟɧɢɹ Ɇɚɪɫɚ, ɫ ɩɟɪɢɨɞɨɦ - 686,68 ɫɭɬɨɤ;
ɤɨɦɛɢɧɚɰɢɨɧɧɚɹ ɝɚɪɦɨɧɢɤɚ ɪɚɡɧɨɫɬɢ ɱɚɫɬɨɬ ɨɛɪɚɳɟɧɢɹ Ɂɟɦɥɢ ɢ ɋɚɬɭɪɧɚ ɢ ɝɪɚɜɢɞɢɧɚɦɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɪɟɡɨɧɚɧɫɚ ɋɚɬɭɪɧɚ, ɫ ɩɟɪɢɨɞɨɦ ɜ ɩɨɥɨɫɟ ɩɟɪɢɨɞɚ – ɨɬ 378,09 ɞɨ
383,67ɫɭɬɨɤ;
ɜɬɨɪɚɹ ɝɚɪɦɨɧɢɤɚ ɪɚɞɢɚɥɶɧɨɝɨ ɝɪɚɜɢɞɢɧɚɦɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɪɟɡɨɧɚɧɫɚ ɘɩɢɬɟɪɚ, ɫ ɩɟɪɢɨɞɨɦ -1531,57 ɫɭɬɨɤ;
ɤɨɦɛɢɧɚɰɢɨɧɧɚɹ ɝɚɪɦɨɧɢɤɚ ɪɚɡɧɨɫɬɢ ɱɚɫɬɨɬ ɨɛɪɚɳɟɧɢɹ ɢ ɝɪɚɜɢɞɢɧɚɦɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ
ɪɚɞɢɚɥɶɧɨɝɨ ɪɟɡɨɧɚɧɫɚ Ɂɟɦɥɢ, ɫ ɩɟɪɢɨɞɨɦ - 881,8 ɫɭɬɨɤ;
ɱɚɫɬɨɬɚ ɝɪɚɜɢɞɢɧɚɦɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɪɚɞɢɚɥɶɧɨɝɨ ɪɟɡɨɧɚɧɫɚ Ɂɟɦɥɢ, ɫ ɩɟɪɢɨɞɨɦ - 258,28
ɫɭɬɨɤ;
ɤɨɦɛɢɧɚɰɢɨɧɧɚɹ ɝɚɪɦɨɧɢɤɚ ɪɚɡɧɨɫɬɢ ɱɚɫɬɨɬ ɨɛɪɚɳɟɧɢɹ Ɂɟɦɥɢ ɢ ɪɚɞɢɚɥɶɧɨɝɨ
ɝɪɚɜɢɞɢɧɚɦɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɪɟɡɨɧɚɧɫɚ ɘɩɢɬɟɪɚ, ɫ ɩɟɪɢɨɞɨɦ - 414,7 ɫɭɬɨɤ.
ȼ ɨɛɥɚɫɬɢ ɛɨɥɟɟ ɜɵɫɨɤɢɯ ɱɚɫɬɨɬ ɢɥɢ ɦɚɥɵɯ ɩɟɪɢɨɞɨɜ ɰɢɤɥɨɜ ɢ ɪɟɡɨɧɚɧɫɨɜ ɬɟɪɦɵ
ɫɩɟɤɬɪɨɜ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɟɠɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɝɨ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɚ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ ɢɦɟɸɬ ɞɨɫɬɚɬɨɱɧɨ ɜɵɫɨɤɭɸ
ɩɥɨɬɧɨɫɬɶ, ɨɛɭɫɥɨɜɥɟɧɧɭɸ ɫɦɟɲɚɧɧɵɦɢ ɚɷɪɨɞɢɧɚɦɢɱɟɫɤɢɦɢ, ɛɚɪɨɦɟɬɪɢɱɟɫɤɢɦɢ ɢ
ɬɟɪɦɨɞɢɧɚɦɢɱɟɫɤɢɦɢ ɩɪɨɹɜɥɟɧɢɹɦɢ ɤɨɦɛɢɧɚɰɢɨɧɧɵɯ ɝɚɪɦɨɧɢɤ ɱɚɫɬɨɬ ɨɛɪɚɳɟɧɢɣ ɢ
ɪɚɞɢɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɝɪɚɜɢɞɢɧɚɦɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɪɟɡɨɧɚɧɫɨɜ ɩɥɚɧɟɬ, Ɂɟɦɥɢ ɢ Ʌɭɧɵ, ɜɤɥɸɱɚɹ ɤɨɦɛɢɧɚɰɢɨɧɧɵɟ ɝɚɪɦɨɧɢɤɢ ɱɚɫɬɨɬ ɝɪɚɜɢɞɢɧɚɦɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɜɨɡɦɭɳɟɧɢɣ ɋɨɥɧɰɚ.
Ɍɚɤɢɦ ɨɛɪɚɡɨɦ, ɫɩɟɤɬɪɵ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɟɠɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɝɨ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɚ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ ɜ Ʌɨɧɞɨɧɟ,
Ⱥɧɤɨɪɢɞɠɟ, Ȼɭɷɧɨɫ-Ⱥɣɪɟɫɟ ɢ Ʉɚɧɛɟɪɪɟ ɜ ɩɟɪɢɨɞɵ ɞɨ ɢ ɩɨɫɥɟ ɜɡɪɵɜɚ ɤɨɦɟɬɵ ɒɭɦɟɣɤɟɪɚ-Ʌɟɜɢ ɧɚ ɘɩɢɬɟɪɟ, ɚ ɬɚɤɠɟ ɢɯ ɤɪɨɫɫɤɨɪɪɟɥɹɰɢɨɧɧɵɟ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɵ, ɩɨɞɬɜɟɪɠɞɚɸɬ ɝɢɩɨɬɟɡɭ ɨ ɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɨɜɚɧɢɢ ɧɟɢɡɜɟɫɬɧɨɝɨ ɪɚɧɟɟ ɹɜɥɟɧɢɹ ɤɨɫɦɨɝɟɧɧɨɣ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɢ ɢɧɬɟɧɫɢɜɧɨɫɬɢ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɟɠɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɝɨ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɚ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ ɧɚ ɭɪɛɚɧɢɡɢɪɨɜɚɧɧɵɯ ɬɟɪɪɢɬɨɪɢɹɯ ɝɪɚɜɢɞɢɧɚɦɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɩɪɨɢɫɯɨɠɞɟɧɢɹ. Ⱦɨɦɢɧɢɪɭɸɳɢɟ ɰɢɤɥɵ
ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɨɧɧɵɯ ɤɨɫɦɨɝɟɧɧɵɯ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɟɠɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɝɨ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɚ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ ɬɚɤɠɟ, ɤɚɤ ɢ
ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɧɵɟ ɢ ɜɟɬɪɨɜɵɟ, ɢɦɟɸɬ ɱɚɫɬɨɬɵ ɨɬɥɢɱɧɵɟ ɨɬ ɫɟɡɨɧɧɵɯ ɰɢɤɥɨɜ, ɜɵɡɵɜɚɹ,
ɬɟɦ ɫɚɦɵɦ, ɧɟ ɬɨɥɶɤɨ ɪɨɫɬ (ɫɧɢɠɟɧɢɟ) ɟɠɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɝɨ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɚ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ, ɧɨ ɢ ɢɯ ɫɦɟɳɟɧɢɟ ɨɬɧɨɫɢɬɟɥɶɧɨ ɫɟɡɨɧɧɵɯ ɩɪɨɹɜɥɟɧɢɣ ɜ ɫɩɨɤɨɣɧɵɟ ɩɟɪɢɨɞɵ ɨɬɫɭɬɫɬɜɢɹ ɜɫɩɥɟɫɤɨɜ
ɝɪɚɜɢɬɚɰɢɨɧɧɵɯ ɜɨɡɦɭɳɟɧɢɣ ɜ ɨɤɨɥɨɡɟɦɧɨɦ ɤɨɫɦɢɱɟɫɤɨɦ ɩɪɨɫɬɪɚɧɫɬɜɟ.
Ʌɢɬɟɪɚɬɭɪɚ
1. Ɍɟɥɢɱɟɧɤɨ ȼ.ɂ., Ʉɨɪɨɥɶ ȿ.Ⱥ., ɏɥɵɫɬɭɧɨɜ Ɇ.ɋ. Ⱦɟɬɚɥɶɧɵɟ ɢɫɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɢ ɚɧɚɥɢɡ ɦɚɥɨ ɢɡɭɱɟɧɧɵɯ ɩɪɢɱɢɧɧɨ-ɫɥɟɞɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɯ ɫɜɹɡɟɣ ɢ ɦɟɯɚɧɢɡɦɨɜ ɩɨɞɝɨɬɨɜɤɢ ɢ ɪɟɚɥɢɡɚɰɢɢ ɚɜɚɪɢɣ ɧɚ ɫɬɪɨɢɬɟɥɶɧɵɯ ɨɛɴɟɤɬɚɯ. - Ɇɨɫɤɜɚ-ɂɜɚɧɨɜɨ: ȼɟɫɬɧɢɤ ɨɬɞɟɥɟɧɢɹ ɫɬɪɨɢɬɟɥɶɧɵɯ ɧɚɭɤ ɊȺȺɋɇ, ɬɨɦ 2, 2010,
ɫɬɪ.324
2. Ɍɟɥɢɱɟɧɤɨ ȼ.ɂ., Ɂɚɜɚɥɢɲɢɧ ɋ.ɂ., ɏɥɵɫɬɭɧɨɜ Ɇ.ɋ. Ƚɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɟ ɪɢɫɤɢ ɢ ɧɨɜɵɟ ɭɝɪɨɡɵ ɛɟɡɨɩɚɫɧɨɫɬɢ ɨɬɜɟɬɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɯ ɫɬɪɨɢɬɟɥɶɧɵɯ ɨɛɴɟɤɬɨɜ ɦɟɝɚɩɨɥɢɫɚ. –Ɇ.: Ⱥɋȼ, ɇɚɭɱɧɨ-ɬɟɯɧɢɱɟɫɤɢɣ ɠɭɪɧɚɥ
«ȼɟɫɬɧɢɤ ɆȽɋɍ» ɉɟɪɢɨɞɢɱɟɫɤɨɟ ɧɚɭɱɧɨɟ ɢɡɞɚɧɢɟ, ɋɩɟɰɜɵɩɭɫɤ ʋ2, 2009,
3. Ɍɟɥɢɱɟɧɤɨ ȼ.ɂ. , Ʉɨɪɨɥɶ ȿ.Ⱥ., ɏɥɵɫɬɭɧɨɜ Ɇ.ɋ. Ƚɪɚɜɢɫɟɣɫɦɨɦɟɬɪɢɱɟɫɤɢɣ ɦɨɧɢɬɨɪɢɧɝ ɜɵɫɨɬɧɵɯ ɡɞɚɧɢɣ. –Ɇ.: ɀɭɪɧɚɥ «ȼɵɫɨɬɧɵɟ ɡɞɚɧɢɹ», ʋ1, 2008
4. Ⱦɠɚɧɢɛɟɤɨɜ ȼ.Ⱥ. ɏɥɵɫɬɭɧɨɜ Ɇ.ɋ., ɉɨɞɭɜɚɥɶɰɟɜ ȼ.ȼ. ȼɥɢɹɧɢɟ ɝɟɨɷɤɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɷɮɮɟɤɬɢɜɧɨɫɬɶ ɩɪɢɪɨɞɧɵɯ ɢ ɬɟɯɧɨɝɟɧɧɵɯ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɨɜ ɧɚ ɛɟɡɨɩɚɫɧɨɫɬɶ ɩɪɨɦɵɲɥɟɧɧɵɯ ɨɛɴɟɤɬɨɜ ɢ ɢɧɠɟɧɟɪɧɵɯ
ɤɨɦɦɭɧɢɤɚɰɢɣ. IV ȼɫɟɪɨɫɫɢɣɫɤɚɹ ɧɚɭɱɧɚɹ ɤɨɧɮɟɪɟɧɰɢɹ «Ɏɢɡɢɱɟɫɤɢɟ ɩɪɨɛɥɟɦɵ ɷɤɨɥɨɝɢɢ (ɗɤɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɚɹ ɮɢɡɢɤɚ)». ɋɛ. ɬɪɭɞɨɜ. –Ɇ.: ɂɉɆ ɊȺɇ –ɆȽɍ ɢɦ.Ʌɨɦɨɧɨɫɨɜɚ Ɇ.ȼ., 2004
5. ɏɥɵɫɬɭɧɨɜ Ɇ.ɋ., Ɂɚɜɚɥɢɲɢɧ ɋ.ɂ. ɉɨɞɭɜɚɥɶɰɟɜ ȼ.ȼ. Ʉɨɫɦɨɝɟɧɧɵɟ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɵ ɞɟɝɪɚɞɚɰɢɢ
ɝɟɨɬɟɯɧɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɧɚɞɟɠɧɨɫɬɢ ɩɪɨɦɵɲɥɟɧɧɵɯ ɨɛɴɟɤɬɨɜ ɢ ɬɟɯɧɨɫɮɟɪɵ ɦɟɝɚɩɨɥɢɫɨɜ. IV ȼɫɟɪɨɫɫɢɣɫɤɚɹ
ɧɚɭɱɧɚɹ ɤɨɧɮɟɪɟɧɰɢɹ «Ɏɢɡɢɱɟɫɤɢɟ ɩɪɨɛɥɟɦɵ ɷɤɨɥɨɝɢɢ (ɗɤɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɚɹ ɮɢɡɢɤɚ)». ɋɛ. ɬɪɭɞɨɜ. –Ɇ.:
ɂɉɆ ɊȺɇ –ɆȽɍ ɢɦ.Ʌɨɦɨɧɨɫɨɜɚ Ɇ.ȼ., 2004
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6. Nikitskiy V.P., Khlystunov M.S. Ƚɪɚɜɢɬɚɰɢɨɧɧɚɹ ɦɨɞɟɥɶ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮ. –Ɇ.: "Aerospace courier",
January –February, 1999
7. ɏɥɵɫɬɭɧɨɜ Ɇ.ɋ., Ɏɪɨɥɨɜ ȼ.Ⱥ., Ⱦɭɲɟɱɤɢɧ ȼ.ɂ., Ƚɚɮɭɪɨɜɚ Ɇ.Ɏ. ɗɥɟɦɟɧɬɵ ɫɢɫɬɟɦɧɨɝɨ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ ɢ ɫɨɜɪɟɦɟɧɧɚɹ ɮɨɪɦɭɥɢɪɨɜɤɚ ɚɤɬɭɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɩɪɨɛɥɟɦ ɷɤɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɛɟɡɨɩɚɫɧɨɫɬɢ Ɋɨɫɫɢɢ. –Ɇ.:
ɇɄɗȻ ɊɎ-ɆȽɋɍ, ɇɌɈ ɢɧɜ.ʋ731, 2000
8. ɏɥɵɫɬɭɧɨɜ Ɇ.ɋ. Ƚɪɚɜɢɞɢɧɚɦɢɱɟɫɤɚɹ ɬɟɨɪɢɹ ɫɬɢɯɢɣɧɵɯ ɛɟɞɫɬɜɢɣ. ɋɛɨɪɧɢɤ ɬɪɭɞɨɜ IV ȼɫɟɪɨɫɫɢɣɫɤɨɝɨ ɷɤɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɫɟɦɢɧɚɪɚ. - Ɇ.: ɘɇȿɋɄɈ-ɐɉɄ ɢɦ.ɘ.Ⱥ.Ƚɚɝɚɪɢɧɚ, 2000
9. Nikitskiy V.P., Khlystunov M.S. A problem of the control of a level of a microgravitation onboard
a space station and international problem of global debacles. Theses " International aerospace congress IAC
"94" –Ɇ-H.: NASA, Org. committee IAC " 94, 1994
Literatura
1. Telichenko V.I., Korol' E.A., Hlystunov M.S. Detal'nye issledovaniya i analiz malo izuchennyh
prichinno-sledstvennyh svyazei i mehanizmov podgotovki i realizacii avarii na stroitel'nyh ob'ektah. - Moskva-Ivanovo: Vestnik otdeleniya stroitel'nyh nauk RAASN, tom 2, 2010, str.324
2. Telichenko V.I., Zavalishin S.I., Hlystunov M.S. Global'nye riski i novye ugrozy bezopasnosti otvetstvennyh stroitel'nyh ob'ektov megapolisa. –M.: ASV, Nauchno-tehnicheskii jurnal «Vestnik MGSU»
Periodicheskoe nauchnoe izdanie, Specvypusk ʋ2, 2009,
3. Telichenko V.I. , Korol' E.A., Hlystunov M.S. Graviseismometricheskii monitoring vysotnyh zdanii. –M.: Jurnal «Vysotnye zdaniya», ʋ1, 2008
4. Djanibekov V.A. Hlystunov M.S., Poduval'cev V.V. Vliyanie geoekologicheskoi ef-fektivnost' prirodnyh i tehnogennyh processov na bezopasnost' promyshlennyh ob'ektov i injenernyh kommunikacii. IV
Vserossiiskaya nauchnaya konferenciya «Fizicheskie problemy ekologii (Ekologicheskaya fizika)». Sb. trudov. –M.: IPM RAN –MGU im.Lomonosova M.V., 2004
5. Hlystunov M.S., Zavalishin S.I. Poduval'cev V.V. Kosmogennye processy degradacii geotehnicheskoi nadejnosti promyshlennyh ob'ektov i tehnosfery megapolisov. IV Vseros-siiskaya nauchnaya konferenciya «Fizicheskie problemy ekologii (Ekologicheskaya fizika)». Sb. trudov. –M.: IPM RAN –MGU
im.Lomonosova M.V., 2004
6. Nikitskiy V.P., Khlystunov M.S. Gravitacionnaya model' katastrof. –M.: "Aerospace courier", January –February, 1999
7. Hlystunov M.S., Frolov V.A., Dushechkin V.I., Gafurova M.F. Elementy sistemnogo analiza i sovremennaya formulirovka aktual'nyh problem ekologicheskoi bezopasnosti Rossii. –M.: NKEB RF-MGSU,
NTO inv.ʋ731, 2000
8. Hlystunov M.S. Gravidinamicheskaya teoriya stihiinyh bedstvii. Sbornik trudov IV Vserossiiskogo
ekologicheskogo seminara. - M.: YuNESKO-CPK im.Yu.A.Gagarina, 2000
9. Nikitskiy V.P., Khlystunov M.S. A problem of the control of a level of a microgravitation onboard a space station and international problem of global debacles. Theses " International aerospace congress
IAC "94" –M-H.: NASA, Org. committee IAC " 94, 1994
Ʉɥɸɱɟɜɵɟ ɫɥɨɜɚ: ɡɞɚɧɢɹ, ɫɨɨɪɭɠɟɧɢɹ, ɨɫɧɨɜɚɧɢɹ, ɧɚɞɟɠɧɨɫɬɶ, ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɟ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɹ ɤɥɢɦɚɬɚ, ɟɠɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɟ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɨ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ, ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɢ, ɨɤɨɥɨɡɟɦɧɨɟ ɤɨɫɦɢɱɟɫɤɨɟ ɩɪɨɫɬɪɚɧɫɬɜɨ, ɝɪɚɜɢɞɢɧɚɦɢɱɟɫɤɢɟ ɜɨɡɦɭɳɟɧɢɹ, ɧɟɢɡɜɟɫɬɧɨɟ ɪɚɧɟɟ ɹɜɥɟɧɢɟ, ɤɨɫɦɨɝɟɧɧɚɹ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɹ, ɜɚɪɢɨɦɟɬɪɢɱɟɫɤɢɣ ɦɟɬɨɞ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ, ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɨɧɧɵɟ ɰɢɤɥɵ, ɚɥɝɨɪɢɬɦɵ ɜɟɪɢɮɢɤɚɰɢɢ, ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡ
Keywords: buildings, constructions, bases, reliability, climate global changes, daily precipitation intensity,
variations, circumterraneous space, gravidynamic indignations, unknown earlier phenomenon, spacegenic evolution, variametric analysis method, evolutionary cycles, verification algorithms, forecast
129337, Ɇɨɫɤɜɚ, əɪɨɫɥɚɜɫɤɨɟ ɲ.26, ɬɟɥ.769-73-87, mcxmgsu@mail.ru
Ɋɟɰɟɧɡɟɧɬɵ: Ɂɚɦ.ɞɢɪɟɤɬɨɪɚ ɩɨ ɧɚɭɤɟ ȼɇɂɂȽɂɆ, ɤ.ɬ.ɧ. Ɇ.Ⱥ.ȼɨɥɵɧɨɜ, ɋ.ɧ.ɫ. ȼɇɂɂȽɂɆ, ɞ.ɮ.-ɦ.ɧ. ɇ.Ɇ.
ȿɜɫɬɢɝɧɟɟɜ, ɞ.ɬ.ɧ., ɩɪɨɮ. ɇɢɤɨɥɚɟɜ ȼ.ɉ., ɡɚɦ. ɧɚɭɱɧɨɝɨ ɪɭɤɨɜɨɞɢɬɟɥɹ ɈȺɈ «ɇɂɂ ɗɧɟɪɝɟɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɫɨɨɪɭɠɟɧɢɣ Ɋɨɫɝɢɞɪɨ», ɡɚɦ. ɞɢɪɟɤɬɨɪɚ ɇɌɐ ɋɨɨɪɭɠɟɧɢɣ, ɤɨɧɫɬɪɭɤɰɢɣ ɢ ɦɚɬɟɪɢɚɥɨɜ
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