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ВЕСТНИК
МГСУ
2/2011
ɇȺȽɊɍɁɄɂ ɂ ȼɈɁȾȿɃɋɌȼɂə ɇȺ ɁȾȺɇɂə ɂ ɋɈɈɊɍɀȿɇɂə.
əȼɅȿɇɂȿ ɄɈɋɆɈȽȿɇɇɈɃ ɗȼɈɅɘɐɂɂ ɂɇɌȿɇɋɂȼɇɈɋɌɂ
ȽɅɈȻȺɅɖɇɕɏ ȼȺɊɂȺɐɂɃ ɆȺɄɋɂɆȺɅɖɇɕɏ ɂ
ɋɊȿȾɇȿɋɍɌɈɑɇɕɏ ɌȿɆɉȿɊȺɌɍɊ ɇȺ
ɍɊȻȺɇɂɁɂɊɈȼȺɇɇɕɏ ɌȿɊɊɂɌɈɊɂəɏ
LOADINGS AND INFLUENCES ON BUILDINGS AND
CONSTRUCTIONS. THE SPACEGENIC EVOLUTIONS
PHENOMENON OF THE MAXIMAL AND DAILY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES INTENSITY GLOBAL VARIATIONS IN THE
URBANIZED TERRITORIES
ȼ.ɂ. Ɍɟɥɢɱɟɧɤɨ, Ɇ.ɋ. ɏɥɵɫɬɭɧɨɜ,
ȼ.ɂ. ɉɪɨɤɨɩɶɟɜ, ɀ.Ƚ. Ɇɨɝɢɥɸɤ
V.I. Telichenko, M.S. Hlystunov, V.I. Prokopjev, J.G. Mogiluk
ɆȽɋɍ (ɇɂɍ)
ȼ ɫɬɚɬɶɟ ɪɚɫɫɦɚɬɪɢɜɚɸɬɫɹ ɦɚɬɟɪɢɚɥɵ ɨɬɤɪɵɬɢɹ ɦɟɬɨɞɨɦ ɜɚɪɢɨɦɟɬɪɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ
ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɨɝɨ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ ɧɟɢɡɜɟɫɬɧɨɝɨ ɪɚɧɟɟ ɹɜɥɟɧɢɹ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ ɜ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɟ ɞɟɣɫɬɜɢɹ ɝɪɚɜɢɞɢɧɚɦɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɜɨɡɦɭɳɟɧɢɣ ɜ ɨɤɨɥɨɡɟɦɧɨɦ ɤɨɫɦɢɱɟɫɤɨɦ ɩɪɨɫɬɪɚɧɫɬɜɟ.
In article are presented materials of opening by a spectral variametric analysis method
of the unknown person before phenomenon of temperature global variations as a gravidynamic indignations action result in a circumterraneous space.
ɉɪɨɛɥɟɦɚ ɢɡɧɨɫɚ ɢɧɠɟɧɟɪɧɵɯ ɤɨɦɦɭɧɢɤɚɰɢɣ, ɫɬɪɨɢɬɟɥɶɧɵɯ ɤɨɧɫɬɪɭɤɰɢɣ ɡɞɚɧɢɣ
ɢ ɫɨɨɪɭɠɟɧɢɣ, ɤɚɤ ɜ Ɋɨɫɫɢɢ, ɬɚɤ ɢ ɡɚ ɪɭɛɟɠɨɦ, ɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɨ ɨɛɨɫɬɪɹɟɬɫɹ ɧɟ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɢɪɭɟɦɵɦ ɪɚɧɟɟ ɪɨɫɬɨɦ ɢɧɬɟɧɫɢɜɧɨɫɬɢ ɦɚɥɨɢɡɭɱɟɧɧɵɯ ɪɚɧɟɟ ɚɜɚɪɢɣɧɨ ɨɩɚɫɧɵɯ ɤɥɢɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɢ ɝɟɨɥɨɝɨ-ɝɟɨɮɢɡɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɨɜ ɢ, ɤɚɤ ɫɥɟɞɫɬɜɢɟ, ɧɟɧɨɪɦɢɪɨɜɚɧɧɵɯ
ɫɜɟɪɯɩɪɨɟɤɬɧɵɯ ɧɚɝɪɭɡɨɤ ɢ ɜɨɡɞɟɣɫɬɜɢɣ ɧɚ ɡɞɚɧɢɹ, ɫɨɨɪɭɠɟɧɢɹ.
ɇɚɫɬɨɹɳɚɹ ɫɬɚɬɶɹ ɹɜɥɹɟɬɫɹ ɩɟɪɜɨɣ ɢɡ ɫɟɪɢɢ ɩɭɛɥɢɤɚɰɢɣ ɚɜɬɨɪɨɜ ɜ ɨɛɥɚɫɬɢ ɦɚɥɨɢɡɭɱɟɧɧɵɯ ɪɚɧɟɟ ɹɜɥɟɧɢɣ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɚɤɬɢɜɚɰɢɢ ɝɟɨɥɨɝɨ-ɝɟɨɮɢɡɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɢ ɤɥɢɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɨɜ ɧɚ Ɂɟɦɥɟ ɝɪɚɜɢɞɢɧɚɦɢɱɟɫɤɢɦɢ ɜɨɡɦɭɳɟɧɢɹɦɢ ɜ ɨɤɨɥɨɡɟɦɧɨɦ ɤɨɫɦɢɱɟɫɤɨɦ ɩɪɨɫɬɪɚɧɫɬɜɟ.
ȼ ɫɬɚɬɶɟ ɪɚɫɫɦɚɬɪɢɜɚɸɬɫɹ ɨɫɧɨɜɧɵɟ ɦɚɬɟɪɢɚɥɵ ɢɫɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɧɢɣ ɚɜɬɨɪɨɜ ɜ ɨɛɥɚɫɬɢ
ɨɛɧɚɪɭɠɟɧɢɹ, ɤɥɚɫɫɢɮɢɤɚɰɢɢ, ɢɧɬɟɪɩɪɟɬɚɰɢɢ ɢ ɜɟɪɢɮɢɤɚɰɢɢ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɯ (ɦɢɪɨɜɨɝɨ
ɦɚɫɲɬɚɛɚ) ɤɨɥɟɛɚɧɢɣ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ, ɜ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɟ ɤɨɬɨɪɵɯ ɛɵɥɨ ɨɬɤɪɵɬɨ ɧɟɢɡɜɟɫɬɧɨɟ
ɪɚɧɟɟ ɹɜɥɟɧɢɟ ɤɨɫɦɨɝɟɧɧɨɣ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɢ ɢɧɬɟɧɫɢɜɧɨɫɬɢ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɦɚɤɫɢɦɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɢ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɵɯ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪ ɧɚ ɭɪɛɚɧɢɡɢɪɨɜɚɧɧɵɯ ɬɟɪɪɢɬɨɪɢɹɯ ɜ
ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɟ ɞɟɣɫɬɜɢɹ ɝɪɚɜɢɞɢɧɚɦɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɜɨɡɦɭɳɟɧɢɣ ɜ ɨɤɨɥɨɡɟɦɧɨɦ ɤɨɫɦɢɱɟɫɤɨɦ
ɩɪɨɫɬɪɚɧɫɬɜɟ.
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Ɍɟɨɪɟɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɟ ɨɬɤɪɵɬɢɟ ɹɜɥɟɧɢɣ ɤɨɫɦɨɝɟɧɧɨɣ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɢ ɢɧɬɟɧɫɢɜɧɨɫɬɢ ɤɥɢɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɢ ɝɟɨɥɨɝɨ-ɝɟɨɮɢɡɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɨɜ ɛɵɥɨ ɪɟɚɥɢɡɨɜɚɧɨ ɚɜɬɨɪɚɦɢ ɞɨ ɜɡɪɵɜɚ
ɤɨɦɟɬɵ ɒɭɦɟɣɤɟɪɚ-Ʌɟɜɢ ɧɚ ɘɩɢɬɟɪɟ ɢ ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɥɟɧɨ ɜɦɟɫɬɟ ɫ ɮɨɪɦɭɥɨɣ ɨɬɤɪɵɬɢɹ ɜ
ɞɨɤɥɚɞɟ ɧɚ I Ɇɟɠɞɭɧɚɪɨɞɧɨɦ ɚɷɪɨɤɨɫɦɢɱɟɫɤɨɦ ɤɨɧɝɪɟɫɫɟ ɜ ɚɜɝɭɫɬɟ 1994 ɝɨɞɚ, ɚ ɷɤɫɩɟɪɢɦɟɧɬɚɥɶɧɨɟ ɩɨɞɬɜɟɪɠɞɟɧɢɟ ɷɬɢɯ ɹɜɥɟɧɢɣ ɜ ɞɨɤɥɚɞɚɯ ɧɚ VII Ɋɨɫɫɢɣɫɤɨɦ ɫɢɦɩɨɡɢɭɦɟ
«Ɇɟɯɚɧɢɤɚ ɧɟɜɟɫɨɦɨɫɬɢ. ɂɬɨɝɢ ɢ ɩɟɪɫɩɟɤɬɢɜɵ ɮɭɧɞɚɦɟɧɬɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɢɫɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɧɢɣ ɝɪɚɜɢɬɚɰɢɨɧɧɨ-ɱɭɜɫɬɜɢɬɟɥɶɧɵɯ ɫɢɫɬɟɦ» ɜ 2000 ɝ., ɧɚ IV ȼɫɟɪɨɫɫɢɣɫɤɨɦ ɷɤɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɨɦ ɫɟɦɢɧɚɪɟ (ɘɇȿɋɄɈ-ɐɉɄ ɢɦ.ɘ.Ⱥ.Ƚɚɝɚɪɢɧɚ, 2000 ɝ.), ɧɚ IV ȼɫɟɪɨɫɫɢɣɫɤɨɣ ɧɚɭɱɧɨɣ
ɤɨɧɮɟɪɟɧɰɢɹ «Ɏɢɡɢɱɟɫɤɢɟ ɩɪɨɛɥɟɦɵ ɷɤɨɥɨɝɢɢ (ɗɤɨɥɨ-ɝɢɱɟɫɤɚɹ ɮɢɡɢɤɚ)» ɜ 2004 ɝ. ɢ
ɧɚ Ɇɟɠɞɭɧɚɪɨɞɧɨɣ ɤɨɧɮɟɪɟɧɰɢɢ «ɉɨɜɵɲɟɧɢɟ ɛɟɡɨɩɚɫ-ɧɨɫɬɢ ɡɞɚɧɢɣ ɢ ɫɨɨɪɭɠɟɧɢɣ ɜ
ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɟ ɫɬɪɨɢɬɟɥɶɫɬɜɚ ɢ ɷɤɫɩɥɭɚɬɚɰɢɢ» ɜ 2009 ɝ.
Ⱦɥɹ ɷɤɫɩɟɪɢɦɟɧɬɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɜɟɪɢɮɢɤɚɰɢɢ ɹɜɥɟɧɢɹ ɤɨɫɦɨɝɟɧɧɨɣ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɢ ɢɧɬɟɧɫɢɜɧɨɫɬɢ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɤɨɥɟɛɚɧɢɣ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɧɵɯ ɧɚɝɪɭɡɨɤ ɧɚ ɭɪɛɚɧɢɡɢɪɨɜɚɧɧɵɯ ɬɟɪɪɢɬɨɪɢɹɯ, ɚ ɬɚɤɠɟ ɜ ɰɟɥɹɯ ɢɞɟɧɬɢɮɢɤɚɰɢɢ ɩɪɢɱɢɧɧɨ-ɫɥɟɞɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɯ ɫɜɹɡɟɣ ɢ ɝɪɚɜɢɞɢɧɚɦɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɦɟɯɚɧɢɡɦɚ ɟɝɨ ɪɟɚɥɢɡɚɰɢɢ, ɚɜɬɨɪɚɦɢ ɛɵɥ ɩɪɢɦɟɧɟɧ ɦɟɬɨɞ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɨɝɨ ɜɚɪɢɚɦɟɬɪɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɨɧɧɵɯ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɨɜ ɩɨ ɞɚɧɧɵɦ ɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ
ɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɣ ɦɚɤɫɢɦɚɥɶɧɵɯ, ɦɢɧɢɦɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɢ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɵɯ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪ ɜ ɪɹɞɟ ɝɟɨɝɪɚɮɢɱɟɫɤɢ ɪɚɡɧɟɫɟɧɧɵɯ ɝɨɪɨɞɨɜ Ɂɟɦɥɢ (Ɇɨɫɤɜɚ, Ʌɨɧɞɨɧ, Ⱥɧɤɨɪɢɞɠ, Ȼɭɷɧɨɫ-Ⱥɣɪɟɫ,
Ʉɚɧɛɟɪɪɚ, Ɍɨɤɢɨ ɢ ɞɪ.), ɜ ɩɟɪɢɨɞɵ: ɞɨ ɢ ɩɨɫɥɟ ɜɡɪɵɜɚ ɤɨɦɟɬɵ ɒɭɦɟɣɤɟɪɚ-Ʌɟɜɢ ɧɚ
ɘɩɢɬɟɪɟ. Ɍɚɤɨɟ ɫɨɩɨɫɬɚɜɥɟɧɢɟ «ɞɨ ɢ ɩɨɫɥɟ» ɛɵɥɨ ɜɵɛɪɚɧɨ ɜ ɰɟɥɹɯ ɨɛɧɚɪɭɠɟɧɢɹ
ɜɥɢɹɧɢɹ ɜɫɩɥɟɫɤɚ ɝɪɚɜɢɬɚɰɢɨɧɧɨɝɨ ɜɨɡɦɭɳɟɧɢɹ ɜ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɟ ɜɡɪɵɜɚ ɤɨɦɟɬɵ ɧɚ ɘɩɢɬɟɪɟ (ɫ 16 ɩɨ 22 ɢɸɥɹ 1994 ɝɨɞɚ) ɜ ɩɪɟɞɟɥɚɯ ɫɨɥɧɟɱɧɨɣ ɫɢɫɬɟɦɵ ɧɚ ɚɤɬɢɜɚɰɢɸ ɤɨɫɦɨɡɟɦɧɵɯ ɫɜɹɡɟɣ ɢ ɨɠɢɞɚɟɦɨɟ ɩɨɫɥɟɞɭɸɳɟɟ «ɜɨɡɛɭɠɞɟɧɢɟ» ɩɪɢɪɨɞɧɵɯ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɨɜ ɧɚ
Ɂɟɦɥɟ ɢɥɢ ɨɬɫɭɬɫɬɜɢɟ ɬɚɤɨɝɨ ɜɥɢɹɧɢɹ.
Ⱦɥɹ ɜɵɩɨɥɧɟɧɢɹ ɢɫɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɧɢɣ ɦɟɬɨɞɨɦ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɨɝɨ ɜɚɪɢɚɦɟɬɪɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɨɧɧɵɯ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɨɜ ɚɜɬɨɪɚɦɢ ɛɵɥɚ ɫɮɨɪɦɭɥɢɪɨɜɚɧɚ ɧɚɭɱɧɚɹ ɝɢɩɨɬɟɡɚ ɨ ɡɚɤɨɧɨɦɟɪɧɨɫɬɹɯ ɚɤɬɢɜɚɰɢɢ ɢɡɭɱɚɟɦɨɝɨ ɹɜɥɟɧɢɹ, ɨɞɧɢɦ ɢɡ ɫɥɟɞɫɬɜɢɣ ɤɨɬɨɪɨɣ ɹɜɥɹɥɚɫɶ
«ɝɢɩɨɬɟɬɢɱɟɫɤɚɹ» ɫɯɟɦɚ (ɪɢɫ.1) ɪɟɚɥɢɡɚɰɢɢ ɩɪɟɞɩɨɥɚɝɚɟɦɨɝɨ ɦɟɯɚɧɢɡɦɚ ɜɥɢɹɧɢɹ ɝɪɚɜɢɬɚɰɢɨɧɧɨɝɨ ɜɨɡɦɭɳɟɧɢɹ ɧɚ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɢ ɢɧɬɟɧɫɢɜɧɨɫɬɢ ɤɨɥɟɛɚɧɢɣ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ ɜ ɩɪɢɩɨɜɟɪɯɧɨɫɬɧɨɦ ɫɥɨɟ ɚɬɦɨɫɮɟɪɵ.
Ɋɢɫ.1. ɋɯɟɦɚ ɩɨɫɬɭɥɢɪɭɟɦɨɝɨ ɦɟɯɚɧɢɡɦɚ ɜɥɢɹɧɢɹ ɝɪɚɜɢɬɚɰɢɨɧɧɨɝɨ ɜɨɡɦɭɳɟɧɢɹ ɧɚ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɢ
ɢɧɬɟɧɫɢɜɧɨɫɬɢ ɤɨɥɟɛɚɧɢɣ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ ɜ ɩɪɢɩɨɜɟɪɯɧɨɫɬɧɨɦ ɫɥɨɟ ɚɬɦɨɫɮɟɪɵ Ɂɟɦɥɢ
Ɉɩɟɪɚɰɢɨɧɧɚɹ ɫɯɟɦɚ ɦɟɬɨɞɚ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɨɝɨ ɜɚɪɢɚɦɟɬɪɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɢ
ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɥɟɧɚ ɛɥɨɤ-ɫɯɟɦɨɣ ɚɥɝɨɪɢɬɦɚ ɟɝɨ ɪɟɚɥɢɡɚɰɢɢ ɧɚ ɪɢɫɭɧɤɟ 2, ɫɨɝɥɚɫɧɨ ɤɨɬɨɪɨɣ ɜ
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МГСУ
2/2011
ɩɟɪɜɨɦ ɛɥɨɤɟ ɨɩɟɪɚɰɢɣ ɮɨɪɦɢɪɭɟɬɫɹ ɦɚɫɫɢɜ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɣ ɡɚ ɩɟɪɢɨɞ [t1,t2] ɤɨɥɟɛɚɧɢɣ ɩɚɪɚɦɟɬɪɚ ɢɫɫɥɟɞɭɟɦɨɝɨ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɚ Ɍ(t), ɜɨ ɜɬɨɪɨɦ – ɜɵɞɟɥɹɸɬɫɹ ɢ ɧɨɪɦɢɪɭɸɬɫɹ ɩɨ ɦɚɤɫɢɦɚɥɶɧɨɦɭ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɸ ɡɚ ɩɟɪɢɨɞ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɣ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɢ ɷɬɨɝɨ ɩɚɪɚɦɟɬɪɚ, ɧɚ
ɬɪɟɬɶɟɦ – ɜɵɱɢɫɥɹɟɬɫɹ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɵɣ ɨɛɪɚɡ ɷɬɢɯ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ.
Ɋɢɫ.2. Ȼɥɨɤ-ɫɯɟɦɚ ɚɥɝɨɪɢɬɦɚ ɪɟɚɥɢɡɚɰɢɢ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɨɝɨ ɜɚɪɢɚɦɟɬɪɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ
ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɢ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ ɜ ɩɟɪɢɨɞɵ [t1,t2] ɢ [t3,t4]
ɇɚ ɱɟɬɜɟɪɬɨɦ ɷɬɚɩɟ, ɮɨɪɦɢɪɭɟɬɫɹ ɬɟɨɪɟɬɢɱɟɫɤɚɹ ɦɨɞɟɥɶ ɦɟɯɚɧɢɡɦɚ ɪɟɚɥɢɡɚɰɢɢ
ɢɫɫɥɟɞɭɟɦɨɝɨ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɚ, ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɵɣ ɨɛɪɚɡ ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɦɨɞɟɥɢ ɤɨɬɨɪɨɝɨ Ɇ(f),
ɩɨɥɭɱɟɧɧɵɣ ɩɭɬɟɦ ɩɪɟɨɛɪɚɡɨɜɚɧɢɹ Ɏɭɪɶɟ ɟɝɨ ɧɨɪɦɢɪɨɜɚɧɧɵɯ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ, ɫɨɩɨɫɬɚɜɥɹɟɬɫɹ (ɨɩɟɪɚɰɢɹ «5») ɫɨ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɦɢ ɧɨɪɦɢɪɨɜɚɧɧɵɯ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɣ. ȼ
ɫɥɭɱɚɟ ɫɨɜɩɚɞɟɧɢɹ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɨɜ ɦɨɞɟɥɶɧɵɯ ɢ ɧɚɬɭɪɧɵɯ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɬɟɨɪɟɬɢɱɟɫɤɚɹ ɦɨɞɟɥɶ
ɦɨɠɟɬ ɛɵɬɶ ɜɟɪɢɮɢɰɢɪɨɜɚɧɚ, ɤɚɤ ɚɞɟɤɜɚɬɧɚɹ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɟɦɨɦɭ ɹɜɥɟɧɢɸ ɢɥɢ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɭ.
ɋɨɩɨɫɬɚɜɥɟɧɢɟ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɨɜ (2-1) ɢ (2-1ɚ) ɩɨɡɜɨɥɢɬ ɜɵɹɜɢɬɶ ɧɨɜɵɟ ɢɥɢ ɪɨɫɬ ɚɤɬɢɜɧɨɫɬɢ ɭɱɬɟɧɧɵɯ ɪɚɧɟɟ ɩɪɢɱɢɧɧɨ-ɫɥɟɞɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɯ ɫɜɹɡɟɣ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɢ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɧɵɯ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɨɜ ɜ ɩɟɪɢɨɞ [t3,t4] ɩɨɫɥɟ ɜɡɪɵɜɚ ɤɨɦɟɬɵ ɩɨ ɫɪɚɜɧɟɧɢɸ ɫ ɛɨɥɟɟ ɪɚɧɧɢɦ ɩɟɪɢɨɞɨɦ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɣ [t1,t2].
ȼ ɫɥɭɱɚɟ ɧɟɚɞɟɤɜɚɬɧɨɫɬɢ ɦɨɞɟɥɟɣ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɟɦɨɦɭ ɹɜɥɟɧɢɸ ɢɥɢ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɭ ɮɨɪɦɢɪɭɟɬɫɹ ɧɨɜɚɹ ɝɢɩɨɬɟɡɚ ɢ ɷɬɚ ɩɨɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɬɟɥɶɧɨɫɬɶ ɨɩɟɪɚɰɢɣ «4» ɢ «5» ɩɨɜɬɨɪɹɟɬɫɹ ɞɨ
ɬɟɯ ɩɨɪ, ɩɨɤɚ ɞɨɫɬɨɜɟɪɧɨɫɬɶ ɜɟɪɢɮɢɤɚɰɢɢ ɧɟ ɞɨɫɬɢɝɧɟɬ ɬɪɟɛɭɟɦɨɣ ɬɨɱɧɨɫɬɢ ɢɥɢ ɞɨɫɬɨɜɟɪɧɨɫɬɢ ɫɨɨɬɜɟɬɫɬɜɢɹ (ɚɞɟɤɜɚɬɧɨɫɬɢ) ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɟɦɨɦɭ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɭ.
Ɉɩɟɪɚɰɢɢ ɜɟɪɢɮɢɤɚɰɢɢ ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɦɨɞɟɥɟɣ (ɬɟɨɪɟɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɝɢɩɨɬɟɡ) ɦɨɠɟɬ
ɛɵɬɶ ɪɟɚɥɢɡɨɜɚɧɵ ɢ ɜ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɨɛɥɚɫɬɢ, ɤɚɤ ɩɨɤɚɡɚɧɨ ɧɚ ɪɢɫɭɧɤɟ 3.
Ɋɢɫ. 3. ȼɚɪɢɚɧɬ ɛɥɨɤ-ɫɯɟɦɵ ɚɥɝɨɪɢɬɦɚ ɨɩɟɪɚɰɢɣ ɩɨ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɜɟɪɢɮɢɤɚɰɢɢ ɬɟɨɪɟɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɦɨɞɟɥɢ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɨɧɧɨɝɨ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɚ
70
2/2011
ВЕСТНИК
МГСУ
ɉɨɤɚɡɚɬɟɥɟɦ ɚɞɟɤɜɚɬɧɨɫɬɢ ɬɟɨɪɟɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɦɨɞɟɥɢ ɛɭɞɟɬ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɟ ɤɨɷɮɮɢɰɢɟɧɬɚ
ɤɪɨɫɫɤɨɪɪɟɥɹɰɢɢ ɢɥɢ ɫɜɟɪɬɤɢ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɨɛɪɚɡɨɜ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɟɦɨɝɨ ɢ ɦɨɞɟɥɢɪɭɟɦɨɝɨ
ɩɨ ɝɢɩɨɬɟɡɟ ɩɚɪɚɦɟɬɪɚ Ɍ ɢɫɫɥɟɞɭɟɦɨɝɨ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɚ.
ȼɚɪɢɚɦɟɬɪɢɱɟɫɤɢɣ ɚɧɚɥɢɡ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɢ ɤɥɢɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɨɜ, ɩɪɨɜɟɞɟɧɧɵɣ ɚɜɬɨɪɚɦɢ ɩɨ ɞɚɧɧɵɦ ɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɣ ɜ ɪɹɞɟ ɝɟɨɝɪɚɮɢɱɟɫɤɢ ɪɚɡɧɟɫɟɧɧɵɯ
ɝɨɪɨɞɨɜ Ɂɟɦɥɢ ɩɨɤɚɡɚɥ, ɱɬɨ ɫɩɟɤɬɪ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɢ ɢɧɬɟɧɫɢɜɧɨɫɬɢ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ ɜɨ
ɜɫɟɯ ɩɟɪɟɱɢɫɥɟɧɧɵɯ ɝɨɪɨɞɚɯ, ɤɚɤ ɩɪɚɜɢɥɨ, ɫɨɞɟɪɠɢɬ ɞɜɟ ɝɪɭɩɩɵ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɤɨɦɩɨɧɟɧɬ: ɨɞɧɚ ɢɡ ɧɢɯ ɧɨɫɢɬ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɣ, ɨɛɳɟɩɥɚɧɟɬɚɪɧɵɣ ɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪ ɢ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɟɬɫɹ ɜɨ
ɜɫɟɯ ɩɟɪɟɱɢɫɥɟɧɧɵɯ ɝɨɪɨɞɚɯ, ɚ ɜɬɨɪɚɹ ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɥɹɟɬ ɫɨɛɨɣ ɨɬɪɚɠɟɧɢɟ ɥɨɤɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɩɪɢɪɨɞɧɵɯ ɢ ɬɟɯɧɨɝɟɧɧɵɯ ɩɪɨɹɜɥɟɧɢɣ ɤɥɢɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɨɫɨɛɟɧɧɨɫɬɟɣ ɧɚ ɩɪɢɥɟɠɚɳɟɣ ɤ
ɝɨɪɨɞɚɦ ɬɟɪɪɢɬɨɪɢɢ ɢ ɩɨɞɥɟɠɢɬ ɤɥɢɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɦɭ ɪɚɣɨɧɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɸ, ɧɚɩɪɢɦɟɪ, ɧɚ ɩɪɟɞɦɟɬ ɜɵɞɟɥɟɧɢɹ ɢɥɢ ɢɞɟɧɬɢɮɢɤɚɰɢɢ ɞɨɦɢɧɢɪɭɸɳɢɯ ɥɨɤɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɰɢɤɥɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ (ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɵɯ) ɤɨɦɩɨɧɟɧɬ.
ɇɚɩɪɢɦɟɪ, ɟɫɥɢ ɭɫɬɚɧɨɜɥɟɧɧɚɹ ɡɚɤɨɧɨɦɟɪɧɨɫɬɶ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɢ i-ɝɨ ɩɚɪɚɦɟɬɪɚ ɤɥɢɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɨɜ, ɧɚɩɪɢɦɟɪ, ɦɚɤɫɢɦɚɥɶɧɵɯ, ɦɢɧɢɦɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɢɥɢ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɵɯ
ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪ ɞɥɹ ɤɨɧɤɪɟɬɧɨɝɨ j-ɝɨ ɝɨɪɨɞɚ ɢɥɢ ɬɟɪɪɢɬɨɪɢɢ, ɛɭɞɟɬ ɜ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɨɦ ɨɬɨɛɪɚɠɟɧɢɢ ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɥɟɧɚ ɜ ɜɢɞɟ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɮɭɧɤɰɢɢ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɢ kij ( f ) , ɬɨ ɬɨɝɞɚ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɚɹ ɫɨɫɬɚɜɥɹɸɳɚɹ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɢ ɷɬɨɝɨ ɩɚɪɚɦɟɬɪɚ K iɝɥ ( f ) ɦɨɠɟɬ ɛɵɬɶ ɜɵɞɟɥɟɧɚ ɜ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɟ ɤɪɨɫɫɤɨɪɪɟɥɹɰɢɢ ɜ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɨɛɥɚɫɬɢ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɨɧɧɵɯ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɵɯ
ɮɭɧɤɰɢɣ ɩɨ ɜɫɟɦ ɢɫɫɥɟɞɭɟɦɵɦ ɝɨɪɨɞɚɦ ɢɥɢ ɬɟɪɪɢɬɨɪɢɹɦ, ɬɨ ɟɫɬɶ
1
Kiɝɥ ( f )
ª J
ºJ
«– kij ( f ) » , ɝɞɟ J – ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɨ ɥɨɤɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɬɨɱɟɤ (ɪɚɣɨɧɨɜ) ɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɹ
¬j1
¼
ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ i-ɝɨ ɤɥɢɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɩɚɪɚɦɟɬɪɚ.
ȼ ɫɜɨɸ ɨɱɟɪɟɞɶ ɫɨɫɬɚɜɥɹɸɳɚɹ ɥɨɤɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɩɪɨɹɜɥɟɧɢɣ ɦɟɫɬɧɵɯ (ɥɨɤɚɥɶɧɵɯ) ɡɚɤɨɧɨɦɟɪɧɨɫɬɟɣ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɢ ɤɥɢɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɩɚɪɚɦɟɬɪɚ ɜ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɨɦ ɨɬɨɛɪɚɠɟɧɢɢ ɞɥɹ
ɤɨɧɤɪɟɬɧɨɝɨ j-ɝɨ ɝɨɪɨɞɚ ɢɥɢ ɤɨɧɤɪɟɬɧɨɣ j-ɨɣ ɭɪɛɚɧɢɡɢɪɨɜɚɧɧɨɣ ɬɟɪɪɢɬɨɪɢɢ ɦɨɠɟɬ
1
ɛɵɬɶ ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɥɟɧɚ ɜɵɪɚɠɟɧɢɟɦ: Kiɥɨɤ ( f )
Kij ( f ) kij ( f ) ª¬ kij ( f ) Kiɝɥ ( f ) º¼ 2
ȼ ɢɧɢɰɢɚɬɢɜɧɨɦ ɩɨɪɹɞɤɟ ɚɜɬɨɪɚɦɢ ɛɵɥ ɪɚɡɪɚɛɨɬɚɧ ɩɪɨɝɪɚɦɦɧɵɣ ɤɨɦɩɥɟɤɫ «Evolution-7MG», ɜ ɬɨɦ ɱɢɫɥɟ, ɜɯɨɞɹɳɢɣ ɜ ɧɟɝɨ ɩɚɤɟɬ ɩɪɨɝɪɚɦɦ «Evolution-Ɍ», ɞɥɹ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ
ɢ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɚ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɢ ɦɚɤɫɢɦɚɥɶɧɵɯ, ɫɪɟɞɧɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɵɯ ɢ ɦɢɧɢɦɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɧɵɯ
ɪɟɠɢɦɨɜ ɷɤɫɩɥɭɚɬɚɰɢɢ ɡɞɚɧɢɣ ɢ ɫɨɨɪɭɠɟɧɢɣ.
ȼ ɧɚɫɬɨɹɳɟɣ ɫɬɚɬɶɟ ɨɝɪɚɧɢɱɢɦɫɹ ɪɚɫɫɦɨɬɪɟɧɢɟɦ ɩɨɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɬɟɥɶɧɨɫɬɢ ɚɧɚɥɢɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɨɩɟɪɚɰɢɣ ɩɨ ɨɛɧɚɪɭɠɟɧɢɸ ɢ ɜɟɪɢɮɢɤɚɰɢɢ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɡɚɤɨɧɨɦɟɪɧɨɫɬɟɣ ɜɥɢɹɧɢɹ ɜɫɩɥɟɫɤɚ ɝɪɚɜɢɬɚɰɢɨɧɧɨɝɨ ɜɨɡɦɭɳɟɧɢɣ ɜ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɟ ɜɡɪɵɜɚ ɤɨɦɟɬɵ ɧɚ ɘɩɢɬɟɪɟ,
ɧɚɩɪɢɦɟɪ, ɩɨ ɞɚɧɧɵɦ ɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɣ ɦɚɤɫɢɦɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɢ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɵɯ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪ ɜ ɝɨɪɨɞɚɯ: Ʌɨɧɞɨɧ, Ⱥɧɤɨɪɢɞɠ, Ȼɭɷɧɨɫ-Ⱥɣɪɟɫ ɢ Ʉɚɧɛɟɪɪɚ. Ⱦɚɧɧɵɟ ɦɟɬɟɨɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɣ, ɤɚɤ ɩɪɚɜɢɥɨ, ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɥɹɸɬɫɹ ɧɚ ɫɚɣɬɚɯ ɫɨɨɬɜɟɬɫɬɜɭɸɳɢɯ ɫɥɭɠɛ ɜ
ɜɢɞɟ ɬɚɛɥɢɰ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɣ: T-Mean temperature (ɨC); TM-Maximum temperature (ɨC); TmMinimum temperature (ɨC)
Ⱦɥɹ ɢɫɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɢ ɜɟɪɢɮɢɤɚɰɢɢ, ɜ ɫɥɭɱɚɟ ɩɨɞɬɜɟɪɠɞɟɧɢɹ ɝɢɩɨɬɟɡɵ, ɪɚɫɫɦɚɬɪɢɜɚɟɦɨɝɨ ɹɜɥɟɧɢɹ ɛɵɥɢ ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɧɵ ɞɚɧɧɵɟ ɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɣ ɜ ɭɤɚɡɚɧɧɵɯ ɜɵɲɟ ɝɨɪɨɞɚɯ ɜ ɩɟɪɢɨɞ ɫ ɹɧɜɚɪɹ 1973 ɝɨɞɚ ɩɨ ɚɜɝɭɫɬ 2009 ɝɨɞɚ ɜɤɥɸɱɢɬɟɥɶɧɨ.
ɉɪɢ ɩɨɫɬɪɨɟɧɢɢ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɨɜ ɤɨɥɟɛɚɧɢɣ ɢ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɧɵɯ ɩɚɪɚɦɟɬɪɨɜ ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɥɢɫɶ ɞɜɚ ɦɚɫɫɢɜɚ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ: ɞɨ ([t1,t2] - ɫ ɹɧɜɚɪɹ 1973 ɝɨɞɚ ɩɨ ɞɟɤɚɛɪɶ 1993 ɝɨɞɚ,
ɜɤɥɸɱɢɬɟɥɶɧɨ) ɢ ɩɨɫɥɟ ɩɚɞɟɧɢɹ ɤɨɦɟɬɵ ɒɭɦɟɣɤɟɪɚ - Ʌɟɜɢ ɧɚ ɩɥɚɧɟɬɭ ɘɩɢɬɟɪ ([t3,t4] -
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ɫ ɚɜɝɭɫɬɚ 1994 ɝɨɞɚ ɩɨ ɚɜɝɭɫɬ 2009 ɝɨɞɚ ɜɤɥɸɱɢɬɟɥɶɧɨ). Ⱦɢɚɩɚɡɨɧ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚɥɶɧɨɝɨ ɩɪɟɨɛɪɚɡɨɜɚɧɢɹ (fmin-fmɚɯ) ɥɟɠɚɥ ɜ ɩɪɟɞɟɥɚɯ ɨɬ 2,1*10-9 ɞɨ 2,89*10-6 Ƚɰ, (4-5488 ɫɭɬɨɤ).
ȼɚɪɢɚɰɢɢ ɩɨ ɤɚɠɞɨɣ ɞɚɬɟ ɜɵɱɢɫɥɹɥɢɫɶ ɩɨ ɨɬɤɥɨɧɟɧɢɸ ɢɫɫɥɟɞɭɟɦɨɝɨ ɩɚɪɚɦɟɬɪɚ ɨɬ
ɫɪɟɞɧɟɝɨ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɹ ɩɨ ɞɚɧɧɨɣ ɞɚɬɟ ɡɚ ɜɫɸ ɢɫɬɨɪɢɸ ɦɟɬɟɨɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɣ (ɛɨɥɟɟ 100 ɥɟɬ).
ɋɩɟɤɬɪɵ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɦɚɤɫɢɦɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɣ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ ɩɨ ɷɬɢɦ ɝɨɪɨɞɚɦ ɩɪɢɜɟɞɟɧɵ ɧɚ ɪɢɫ.4 (ɫɢɧɹɹ ɢɥɢ ɧɢɠɧɹɹ ɨɝɢɛɚɸɳɚɹ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɚ - ɩɨ ɞɚɧɧɵɦ ɫ ɹɧɜɚɪɹ 1973 ɝɨɞɚ
ɩɨ ɞɟɤɚɛɪɶ 1993 ɝɨɞɚ, ɤɪɚɫɧɚɹ ɢɥɢ ɜɟɪɯɧɹɹ - ɫ ɚɜɝɭɫɬɚ 1994 ɝɨɞɚ ɩɨ ɚɜɝɭɫɬ 2009 ɝɨɞɚ
ɜɤɥɸɱɢɬɟɥɶɧɨ).
Ɋɢɫ.4. ɋɩɟɤɬɪɵ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɣ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ ɜ Ʌɨɧɞɨɧɟ ɢ Ⱥɧɤɨɪɢɞɠɟ
ɇɚ ɪɢɫ.5 ɩɪɢɜɟɞɟɧɵ ɤɪɨɫɫɤɨɪɪɟɥɹɰɢɨɧɧɵɟ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɵ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɦɚɤɫɢɦɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɢ
ɫɪɟɞɧɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɣ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ ɩɨ ɜɫɟɦ ɱɟɬɵɪɟɦ ɝɨɪɨɞɚɦ.
ɋɩɟɤɬɪɵ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɦɚɤɫɢɦɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɢ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɣ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ ɜ Ʌɨɧɞɨɧɟ, Ⱥɧɤɨɪɢɞɠɟ, Ȼɭɷɧɨɫ-Ⱥɣɪɟɫɟ ɢ Ʉɚɧɛɟɪɪɟ ɜ ɩɟɪɢɨɞɵ ɞɨ ɢ ɩɨɫɥɟ ɜɡɪɵɜɚ ɤɨɦɟɬɵ ɧɚ ɘɩɢɬɟɪɟ,
ɚ ɬɚɤɠɟ ɢɯ ɤɪɨɫɫɤɨɪɪɟɥɹɰɢɨɧɧɵɟ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɵ, ɩɨɞɬɜɟɪɠɞɚɸɬ ɝɢɩɨɬɟɡɭ ɨ ɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɨɜɚɧɢɢ
ɧɟɢɡɜɟɫɬɧɨɝɨ ɪɚɧɟɟ ɹɜɥɟɧɢɹ ɤɨɫɦɨɝɟɧɧɨɣ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɢ ɢɧɬɟɧɫɢɜɧɨɫɬɢ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɯ
ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɦɚɤɫɢɦɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɢ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɵɯ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪ ɧɚ ɭɪɛɚɧɢɡɢɪɨɜɚɧɧɵɯ
ɬɟɪɪɢɬɨɪɢɹɯ ɝɪɚɜɢɞɢɧɚɦɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɩɪɨɢɫɯɨɠɞɟɧɢɹ.
Ɋɢɫ.5. Ʉɪɨɫɫɤɨɪɪɟɥɹɰɢɨɧɧɵɟ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɵ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɦɚɤɫɢɦɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɣ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ ɜ
Ʌɨɧɞɨɧɟ, Ⱥɧɤɨɪɢɞɠɟ, Ȼɭɷɧɨɫ-Ⱥɣɪɟɫɟ ɢ Ʉɚɧɛɟɪɪɟ
Ⱦɨɦɢɧɢɪɭɸɳɢɟ ɰɢɤɥɵ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɨɧɧɵɯ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ ɢɦɟɸɬ ɛɨɥɟɟ ɜɵɫɨɤɭɸ ɱɚɫɬɨɬɭ (ɦɟɧɶɲɢɣ ɩɟɪɢɨɞ), ɱɟɦ ɫɟɡɨɧɧɵɣ ɝɨɞɢɱɧɵɣ, ɱɬɨ ɩɨɞɬɜɟɪɠɞɚɟɬɫɹ ɫɟɬɤɨɣ
ɨɪɛɢɬɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɱɚɫɬɨɬɚɯ ɢ ɱɚɫɬɨɬ ɝɪɚɜɢɞɢɧɚɦɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɪɚɞɢɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɪɟɡɨɧɚɧɫɨɜ ɩɥɚɧɟɬ, ɚ
ɬɚɤɠɟ ɤɨɦɛɢɧɚɰɢɨɧɧɵɯ ɝɚɪɦɨɧɢɤ ɢɯ ɧɟɥɢɧɟɣɧɨɝɨ ɜɡɚɢɦɨɞɟɣɫɬɜɢɹ ɦɟɠɞɭ ɫɨɛɨɣ ɢ ɫ
ɜɨɡɦɭɳɟɧɢɹɦɢ ɧɚ ɋɨɥɧɰɟ.
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ɇɚɪɹɞɭ ɫ ɷɬɢɦ ɫɪɚɜɧɢɬɟɥɶɧɵɣ ɚɧɚɥɢɡ ɫɩɟɤɬɪɨɜ ɜɚɪɢɚɰɢɣ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪ ɢ ɫɟɬɤɢ ɝɪɚɜɢɞɢɧɚɦɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɪɟɡɨɧɚɧɫɨɜ ɩɥɚɧɟɬ ɫɨɥɧɟɱɧɨɣ ɫɢɫɬɟɦɵ ɢ ɢɯ ɝɚɪɦɨɧɢɤ, ɩɨɞɬɜɟɪɠɞɚɟɬ
ɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɭɸ ɪɨɥɶ ɷɬɢɯ ɪɟɡɨɧɚɧɫɨɜ ɜ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɢ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɧɵɯ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɨɜ ɜ ɩɪɢɩɨɜɟɪɯɧɨɫɬɧɵɯ ɫɥɨɹɯ ɚɬɦɨɫɮɟɪɵ, ɤɚɤ ɜɚɠɧɨɣ ɫɨɫɬɚɜɥɹɸɳɟɣ ɭɫɥɨɜɢɣ ɠɢɡɧɟɞɟɹɬɟɥɶɧɨɫɬɢ
ɱɟɥɨɜɟɤɚ ɢ ɛɢɨɫɮɟɪɵ ɜ ɰɟɥɨɦ, ɚ ɬɚɤɠɟ ɨɞɧɢɦ ɢɡ ɞɨɦɢɧɢɪɭɸɳɢɯ ɮɚɤɬɨɪɨɜ ɩɨɬɟɧɰɢɚɥɶɧɨɝɨ ɫɧɢɠɟɧɢɹ ɤɥɢɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɭɫɬɨɣɱɢɜɨɫɬɢ ɢ ɧɚɞɟɠɧɨɫɬɢ ɫɬɪɨɢɬɟɥɶɧɵɯ ɨɛɴɟɤɬɨɜ
ɜ ɭɫɥɨɜɢɹɯ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɨɝɨ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɹ ɤɥɢɦɚɬɚ, ɜ ɬɨɦ ɱɢɫɥɟ ɜ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɟ ɦɧɨɝɨɰɢɤɥɨɜɨɣ
ɬɟɪɦɨɞɟɮɨɪɦɚɰɢɨɧɧɨɣ ɭɫɬɚɥɨɫɬɢ ɫɬɪɨɢɬɟɥɶɧɵɯ ɤɨɧɫɬɪɭɤɰɢɣ ɢ ɫɨɨɬɜɟɬɫɬɜɭɸɳɟɣ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɢ ɝɟɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɢ ɝɟɨɷɤɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɨɜ ɜ ɝɪɭɧɬɚɯ ɨɫɧɨɜɚɧɢɣ.
Ʌɢɬɟɪɚɬɭɪɚ
1. Ɍɟɥɢɱɟɧɤɨ ȼ.ɂ., Ʉɨɪɨɥɶ ȿ.Ⱥ., ɏɥɵɫɬɭɧɨɜ Ɇ.ɋ. Ⱦɟɬɚɥɶɧɵɟ ɢɫɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɢ ɚɧɚɥɢɡ ɦɚɥɨ ɢɡɭɱɟɧɧɵɯ ɩɪɢɱɢɧɧɨ-ɫɥɟɞɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɯ ɫɜɹɡɟɣ ɢ ɦɟɯɚɧɢɡɦɨɜ ɩɨɞɝɨɬɨɜɤɢ ɢ ɪɟɚɥɢɡɚɰɢɢ ɚɜɚɪɢɣ ɧɚ ɫɬɪɨɢɬɟɥɶɧɵɯ ɨɛɴɟɤɬɚɯ. - Ɇɨɫɤɜɚ-ɂɜɚɧɨɜɨ: ȼɟɫɬɧɢɤ ɨɬɞɟɥɟɧɢɹ ɫɬɪɨɢɬɟɥɶɧɵɯ ɧɚɭɤ ɊȺȺɋɇ, ɬɨɦ 2, 2010,
ɫɬɪ.324
2. Ⱦɠɚɧɢɛɟɤɨɜ ȼ.Ⱥ. ɏɥɵɫɬɭɧɨɜ Ɇ.ɋ., ɉɨɞɭɜɚɥɶɰɟɜ ȼ.ȼ. Ʉɨɫɦɨɝɟɧɧɵɟ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɫɵ ɞɟɝɪɚɞɚɰɢɢ
ɝɟɨɬɟɯɧɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɧɚɞɟɠɧɨɫɬɢ ɩɪɨɦɵɲɥɟɧɧɵɯ ɨɛɴɟɤɬɨɜ ɢ ɬɟɯɧɨɫɮɟɪɵ ɦɟɝɚɩɨɥɢɫɨɜ. IV ȼɫɟɪɨɫɫɢɣɫɤɚɹ
ɧɚɭɱɧɚɹ ɤɨɧɮɟɪɟɧɰɢɹ «Ɏɢɡɢɱɟɫɤɢɟ ɩɪɨɛɥɟɦɵ ɷɤɨɥɨɝɢɢ (ɗɤɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɚɹ ɮɢɡɢɤɚ)». ɋɛ. ɬɪɭɞɨɜ. –Ɇ.:
ɂɉɆ ɊȺɇ –ɆȽɍ ɢɦ.Ʌɨɦɨɧɨɫɨɜɚ Ɇ.ȼ., 2004
3. ɇɢɤɢɬɫɤɢɣ ȼ.ɉ., ɏɥɵɫɬɭɧɨɜ Ɇ.ɋ. ɉɪɨɛɥɟɦɚ ɤɨɧɬɪɨɥɹ ɭɪɨɜɧɹ ɦɢɤɪɨɝɪɚɜɢɬɚɰɢɢ ɧɚ ɛɨɪɬɭ
ɤɨɫɦɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɫɬɚɧɰɢɢ ɢ ɦɟɠɞɭɧɚɪɨɞɧɚɹ ɩɪɨɛɥɟɦɚ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɤɚɬɚɫɬɪɨɮ. Theses " International aerospace congress IAC "94" –Ɇ-H.: NASA, Org. committee IAC " 94, 1994
Literatura
1. Telichenko V.I., Korol' E.A., Hlystunov M.S. Detal'nye issledovaniya i analiz malo izuchennyh
prichinno-sledstvennyh svyazei i mehanizmov podgotovki i realizacii avarii na stroitel'nyh ob'ektah. Moskva-Ivanovo: Vestnik otdeleniya stroitel'nyh nauk RAASN, tom 2, 2010, str.324
2. Djanibekov V.A. Hlystunov M.S., Poduval'cev V.V. Kosmogennye processy degrada-cii
geotehnicheskoi nadejnosti promyshlennyh ob'ektov i tehnosfery megapolisov. IV Vse-rossiiskaya nauchnaya konferenciya «Fizicheskie problemy ekologii (Ekologicheskaya fizika)». Sb. trudov. –M.: IPM RAN –
MGU im.Lomonosova M.V., 2004
3. Nikitskii V.P., Hlystunov M.S. Problema kontrolya urovnya mikrogravitacii na bortu
kosmicheskoi stancii i mejdunarodnaya problema global'nyh katastrof. Theses " International aerospace congress IAC "94" –M-H.: NASA, Org. committee IAC " 94, 1994
Ʉɥɸɱɟɜɵɟ ɫɥɨɜɚ: ɡɞɚɧɢɹ, ɫɨɨɪɭɠɟɧɢɹ, ɨɫɧɨɜɚɧɢɹ, ɧɚɞɟɠɧɨɫɬɶ, ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɟ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɹ ɤɥɢɦɚɬɚ, ɧɟɢɡɜɟɫɬɧɨɟ ɪɚɧɟɟ ɹɜɥɟɧɢɟ, ɤɨɫɦɨɝɟɧɧɚɹ ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɹ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ, ɬɟɪɦɨɞɟɮɨɪɦɚɰɢɢ, ɜɚɪɢɨɦɟɬɪɢɱɟɫɤɢɣ
ɦɟɬɨɞ, ɰɢɤɥɢɱɟɫɤɚɹ ɭɫɬɚɥɨɫɬɶ, ɷɜɨɥɸɰɢɨɧɧɵɟ ɰɢɤɥɵ, ɚɥɝɨɪɢɬɦɵ ɜɟɪɢɮɢɤɚɰɢɢ, ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡ
Keywords: buildings, constructions, bases, reliability, climate global changes, unknown earlier phenomenon, spacegenic, temperature evolution, thermodeformations, variametric analysis method, cyclic
weariness, evolutionary cycles, verification algorithms, forecast
129337, Ɇɨɫɤɜɚ, əɪɨɫɥɚɜɫɤɨɟ ɲ.26, ɬɟɥ.769-73-87, mcxmgsu@mail.ru
Ɋɟɰɟɧɡɟɧɬɵ: ɞ.ɬ.ɧ., ɩɪɨɮ. ȼ.Ȼ.ɇɢɤɨɥɚɟɜ, ɡɚɦ. ɧɚɭɱɧɨɝɨ ɪɭɤɨɜɨɞɢɬɟɥɹ ɈȺɈ «ɇɂɂ ɗɧɟɪɝɟɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɫɨɨɪɭɠɟɧɢɣ Ɋɨɫɝɢɞɪɨ» - ɡɚɦ. ɞɢɪɟɤɬɨɪɚ ɇɌɐ ɋɨɨɪɭɠɟɧɢɣ, ɤɨɧɫɬɪɭɤɰɢɣ ɢ ɦɚɬɟɪɢɚɥɨɜ;
Ɂɚɦ.ɞɢɪɟɤɬɨɪɚ ɩɨ ɧɚɭɤɟ ȼɇɂɂȽɂɆ, ɤ.ɬ.ɧ. Ɇ.Ⱥ.ȼɨɥɵɧɨɜ, ɋ.ɧ.ɫ. ȼɇɂɂȽɂɆ, ɞ.ɮ.-ɦ.ɧ. ɇ.Ɇ. ȿɜɫɬɢɝɧɟɟɜ
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