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Presentation on Kaliningrad (spring 2003)

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Slide 1 of 24
Economic Development of
Kaliningrad Oblast
presentation by
Evgeny Vinokurov
IMEMO RAS, Moscow, UPMF, Grenoble
E.Vinokurov Economic Development
of Kaliningrad Oblast
E.Vinokurov Economic Development
of Kaliningrad Oblast
Slide 3 of 24
Kaliningrad: general information
• territory – 15 100 sq. km (0,1% of the Russian
Federation)
• population – 943 500 (0,6% of the Russian
Federation)
• Exclave of Russia / semi-enclave of the EU
• part of North West Federal District (total 11 regions
in it)
• nominal GRP in 2002 – appr. USD 1100 mln.
E.Vinokurov Economic Development
of Kaliningrad Oblast
Slide 4 of 24
Kaliningrad: general information
• History (the 750th anniversary of Königsberg in
2005)
• Special Economic Zone (SEZ) regime
• Federal Task Programme for Kaliningrad Oblast
development up to 2010
E.Vinokurov Economic Development
of Kaliningrad Oblast
Slide 5 of 24
SEZ regulations
• Free custom zone – no import taxes
• no taxes for outflows into Russia, if:
- for electronics and household appliances - 15%
VA + changing TN code’s 5th digit;
- for other goods - 30% VA + changing TN code’s
4th digit (+ extra criteria for automobiles, tractors, etc.)
• import quotes in 35 groups - meat imports most
sensible. Attempt to defend local producer.
E.Vinokurov Economic Development
of Kaliningrad Oblast
Slide 6 of 24
Shadow economy
• Input-output matrix (Tatarinov) – 55% from the official
economy
• Household income survey (Fedorov) – real incomes
47% in excess of officials ones
• Delphi method (Samson, Elisseeva) – 60-95% from the
official economy
• 70% of SE are non-illegal activities
E.Vinokurov Economic Development
of Kaliningrad Oblast
Slide 7 of 24
Main economic sectors
• fuel industry
• machine building
• food industry
• agriculture
• trade and catering
E.Vinokurov Economic Development
of Kaliningrad Oblast
Slide 8 of 24
Kaliningrad GRP
15
10
5
0
-5
Russian Federation
Kaliningrad region
-10
-15
-20
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
E.Vinokurov Economic Development
of Kaliningrad Oblast
2000
2001
Slide 9 of 24
Most dynamic sectors
• food industry (Russian markets)
• trade and catering
• communication
• transport (European-Russian trade)
• light industry
• furniture (SEZ success story)
• machine building
E.Vinokurov Economic Development
of Kaliningrad Oblast
Slide 10 of 24
GRP (PPP)
• PPP comparison Lithuania-Kaliningrad made by
I.Samson group (based on 2001 data)
• PP 95% from Lithuania (not taking into account
investments and state budgets)
• Final estimation – 90% from Lithuania, close to
Warminsko-Mazurskie Voevodsvo, 75% from Poland
• further research needed
E.Vinokurov Economic Development
of Kaliningrad Oblast
Slide 11 of 24
GRP by sector in 2000
GRP by sector in 2000
Health, physical culture and
social security
3%
Real estate
2%
Communications
3%
Other sectors
9%
Industry
39%
Public administration
3%
Education
3%
Construction
7%
Agriculture
8%
Transport
9%
Trade and catering
14%
E.Vinokurov Economic Development
of Kaliningrad Oblast
Slide 12 of 24
Employment structure in 2000
Employment structure in 2000
Housing and
communal services
5%
Construction
7%
Other sectors
5%
Trade and catering
21%
Transport and
communications
7%
Health, physical
culture and social
security
8%
Industry
20%
Administration
8%
Agriculture
9%
E.Vinokurov Economic Development
of Kaliningrad Oblast
Education
10%
Slide 13 of 24
Industrial production growth
Industrial production growth (% to previous year)
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Russian Federation
Kaliningrad region
-5
-10
-15
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
E.Vinokurov Economic Development
of Kaliningrad Oblast
2000
2001
Slide 14 of 24
Consumer price indices
Consumer price indices (% to previous year)
120
100
80
60
Russian Federation
Kaliningrad region
40
20
0
1998
1999
2000
E.Vinokurov Economic Development
of Kaliningrad Oblast
2001
Slide 15 of 24
Investment dynamics
Fixed capital investments (% to previous year)
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Russian Federation
Kaliningrad region
-5
-10
-15
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
E.Vinokurov Economic Development
of Kaliningrad Oblast
2000
2001
Slide 16 of 24
Foreign investments, tnd. USD
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
23548
11292
39371
18266
19143
24563
Direct investments
21505
10630
9211
4089
6618
3248
Portfolio investments
580
18
56
-
-
-
Other
investments
(trade and other loans)
1463
644
30104
14177
12525
21315
Foreign
Total
investments
•Investment boom in Kaliningrad in 1999-2001 was
generated by investments from mainland Russia
(estimations 5-10 times more than FI).
•FDI comparisons with neighboring countries are thus
E.Vinokurov Economic Development
incorrect.
of Kaliningrad Oblast
Slide 17 of 24
Trade flows, 2000, mln.USD
Russia
468.90
CEEРЎ
432.20
249.70
201.20
EU+CEEРЎ
642.00
Kaliningrad Oblast
354.90
EU (15)
392.30
153.70
245.80
Rest of the world
97.60
Import
Export
343.40
670.15
996.90
E.Vinokurov Economic Development
of Kaliningrad Oblast
Slide 18 of 24
Foreign exports and imports
Foreign Trade, USD mln
1400
1200
1000
800
Exports
600
Imports
400
200
E.Vinokurov Economic Development
of Kaliningrad Oblast
01
20
00
20
99
19
98
19
97
19
96
19
95
19
94
19
93
19
19
92
0
Slide 19 of 24
Exports and imports per sector
1. Return to highest levels reached in 1995-97, 2. Exports of raw and semi-finished goods. 3. Imports of food products (consumption and
food processing) as well as machinery for modernizing industries.
Export, mln.$
TN VED Sectors
Codes
1999 2000 2001
01 – 24 Food products
30,5
36,1
46,9
27 Fuel industry
91,7 159,1 133,0
28-35, 37-40Petrochemical industry
26 ,8
33,7
44,4
41-43 Raw leather and furs
3,7
5,2
7,3
Wood and its products,
44,47, 48 incl. printing production
28,4
59,0
56,8
61-64 Clothes and footwear
20,3
19,7
21,2
72-81 Metallurgy
31,0
35,8
21,3
84-90 Machine building
47,2
86,8
58,7
Other goods
7,9
17,2
13,6
OVERALL:
287,7 452,2 403,1
Import, mln.$
2001 in
2001 in
% to
% to
1999
1999 2000 2001
1999
153,6 265,5 356,3
348,3 131,2
145,0
22,6
12,7
5,9
26,1
165,6
47,5
64,0
77,7 163,6
197,3
5,7
6,3
7,5 131,6
200,0
27,4
33,1
42,9
104,4
16,5
20,3
26,6
68,7
24,3
40,5
49,4
124,4 359,8 270,6
343,6
172,0 105,9
83,4
108,7
140,2 875, 2 888,0 1010,5
E.Vinokurov Economic Development
of Kaliningrad Oblast
156,6
161,2
203,3
95,5
102,6
115,5
Slide 20 of 24
Main trade partners
• Export: led by Poland – 27,5% (mainly raw oil), then
Germany and Lithuania
• Import: led by Germany – 25%, then Poland and
Lithuania
• 70-75% of foreign trade is realized the EU and
accession countries.
• 5,8% fall on CIS countries except Russia.
E.Vinokurov Economic Development
of Kaliningrad Oblast
Slide 21 of 24
Trade with mainland Russia
TN VED
The data for 2000
Inflows,
Outflows,
mln.USD mln. USD
01 – 24
27
28-35,37-40
41-43
44,47, 48
72-81
Food products and raw materials
Fuel and energy industry
Petrochemical industry
Raw leather and furs
Wood and products
Metals and products
Other sectors
Whole:
89,1
185,2
72
0,1
34,4
24,3
63,8
468,9
340,8
13,2
1,5
1
18,6
1,5
55,6
432,2
• In 2001 outflows grew up to 619 mln. USD (min. estimation) and
outweighed exports.
• Trade flows with mainland Russia grew rapidly and constantly since
1999.
E.Vinokurov Economic Development
of Kaliningrad Oblast
Slide 23 of 24
EU enlargement and Kaliningrad economy
• “EU and Kaliningrad” Communication of the Commission (2001): Enlargement will be
favourable for Kaliningrad because accession countries will apply Common external
tariff
• Lower import tariffs of new EU members (most important Poland and Lithuania) –
present export structure does not let use this advantage; non-tariff barriers
remain/increase
• Little changes on local markets
• Lower Russian import tariffs may lead to lower price competitiveness of Kaliningrad
goods on the Russian markets ( due to lower barriers for CEEC goods and lower costs
of production for Russian enterprises) + РЎAP for accession countries
• Visa problem
• Energy problem
• Cargo transit problem
• Lower volumes of shuttle trade – especially important for small border towns
E.Vinokurov Economic Development
of Kaliningrad Oblast
Slide 24 of 24
WTO accession and Kaliningrad economy
Specifics:
• Compatibility of Kaliningrad SEZ regime and WTO regulations in
question
• May lead to abolition of regional quotes on imports
• No anti-dumping measures against Kaliningrad producers yet
less relevant than for other Russian regions
–
• Possible increase in European-Russian trade would render positive
effects on the region
E.Vinokurov Economic Development
of Kaliningrad Oblast
Slide 24 of 24
People’s perceptions and desires for the future
What option suits you the best?
• 21% - Oblast will have with equal rights with other Russian regions
• 38% - Oblast will remain Russian region, but it will have a special
status
• 19% - Oblast will remain Russian region, but it will act under its own
laws (China – Hongkong model)
• 5% - Oblast will become independent state
1.
Practically no separatism
2.
Wide support for special
rights and status
• 3% - Oblast will be returned to Germany
• 14% - found it difficult to choose
E.Vinokurov Economic Development
of Kaliningrad Oblast
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