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Corporation bond price fluctuations and commercial bank investment policy

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NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY
CORPORATION BOND PRICE FLUCTUATIONS
AND
COMMERCIAL BANK INVESTMENT POLICY
A DISSERTATION
SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL
IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS
for the degree
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY
DEPARTMENT OF FINANCE
BY
WALTER ATHERTON FOY
EVANSTON,
ILLINOIS
MARCH I9I4O
P ro Q u e st N um ber: 10101417
All rights re se rv e d
INFORMATION TO ALL USERS
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uest
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
Chapter I
REVIEW OF THE PROBLEM AND ITS SOLUTION
1
Page
A bank practice problem in corporate bond price
fluctuations. Size of corporate bond portfolio
dependent on risk of market loss in bonds and
loss absorbing power of b a n k . ......... .
1
Past maximum bond price declines as an aid to
estimate of future losses. Price fluctuations
related functionally to bond quality and matur­
ity..............................................
1-2
Moody1s rating used as standards ofquality...... 1-2
Method of selecting historically theperiod of
greatest bond price d
e
c
l
i
n
e
. 2
Loss absorbing power of a bank represented by
surplus, undivided profits, unallocated reserves
plus or minus any appreciation or depreciation
of prices of bonds from book value......... ..... 2-3
This study not a forecast, purely descriptive.
It tells the banker maximum price loss incurred
in past by bonds of various maturities and dif­
ferent quality. It supplies a generalized method
for relating this past loss to the present loss
absorbing power of the bank......................3-14-
Chapter II STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM AND REVIKE OF THE
LITERATURE
5
Increasing present day importance of bonds for
commercial banks. The bankTs great dependence
on marketability of its bond portfolio......
5”7
The general problem of the dissertation...... .
8
Analysis of How Banks Buy Bonds by Ostrolenk
and Mas si e .
.........................
9-12
TABLE OF CONTENTS
(continued)
Page
Chapter II STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM AND REVIEW OF THE
LITERATURE (continued)
Page
Analysis of Investment Policies for Commer­
cial Banks by Wilkinson .......... .
. • •• 9-12
Analysis of Banker’s Handbook of Bond In­
vestment by W o o s t e r ..........................
12-16
Analysis of ’’Loan Policies of Country Banks
as Influenced by Types of Investment Holdings” ,
an article by Garlock in Agriculture Finance
21-23
Relyew.......................
Analysis of the contributions of Laurence R.
Lunden as made available in Financial and
Investment Review, School of Business Admin­
istration, University of Minnesota
• •••
2i*-28
Analysis of unpublished contributions of
Moody’s Investors Service, Inc
...........
28-32
The problems Involved in the use of Moody's
ratings as standards of quality with especial
reference to Bond Ratings as an Investment
Guide by Gilbert Harold*.........
33“3§
Melchior Palyi’s study of the ratings in his
article ’’Bank Portfolios and the Control of
the qapital Market,” ......
38“39
Conclusions.......
39-1+0
Chapter III
MATERIALS AND METHODS
1*1
The use of indexes of bond prices and yields
to determine the fourteen month period of
individual bond price study.......... .........
1*1-1*2
R0lation of the Comptroller of the Currency’s
rulings to the selection of rating classes
l*2-l_*5
TABLE OF CONTENTS
(continued)
Page
Chapter III
MATERIALS AND METHODS (continued)
Page
The statistical tests applied and considered
in selecting marketable bonds for the study.
Only bonds of |5>000,000 size or over select­
ed.........
h5-bl
Only domestic, Canadian, and Cuban corporate
bonds used...... .............. ...............
1*7
Quotations taken as of first of each month
May 1931 "k° S-ftd including June 1932 from
Fitch Bond Record books............. .
1*8
Bonds ratings assigned to the ll*13 different
bonds selected as of May 1, 1931
no'^
changed throughout the study .•••.•••.••••••••
1*8-1*9
Maturity classes selected: Up to 2 years, 2
to 5 years, 5
10 years, 10 to 20 years,
20 to 30 years, and J>0 years and over
^0
Averages calculated:
medians
50
arithmetic means and
Method of calculating price declines and
.........
percentage declines
50*51
Data and methods involved in study of history
of Moody1s bond ratings from 1919 to 1938 ....
52-511-
Chapter IV RESULTS OF INVESTIGATION OF MARKET
DECLINES OF BONDS BY RATING AND MATURITY
Presentation of summarized data on indexes of
prices and yields upon which information the
period from May 1931 "t0 s^d including June
1932 was selected as containing the twelve
months period of greatest bond price decline
since the World War
.....................
55
53*60
TABLE OF CONTENTS
(continued)
Page
Chapter IV RESULTS OF INVESTIGATION OF MARKET
DECLINES OF BONDS BY RATING AND MATURITY
Page
Presentation in tables of averages and per­
centages of bond price declines May 1931*
June 1932
......
61-66
Presentation of charts of arithmetic means
of monthly bond prices by rating and matur­
ity from May 1931 ^0 ari<i including June
1932 .......................................
67-77
Chapter V
RESULTS OF BOND RATING STUDY
78
The discussion of this chapter is based
not only upon the tables contained in the
chapter itself but upon the material in
Appendices Cand D •........................
78
Validity of the ratings as measures of
differential quality shown by "durability"
of the ratings and violations of contract
of the ratinggroups ••••.........
79-90
1.
Durability and violations of con­
tract from 1930-1931
from 1931“
1932 for Aaa and Baa groups, pp. 79-82
2. a. Average durability of Aaa, Aa, and
Baa ratings two years after being
rated and five years after being
rated for period 1919-1931* PP* 83-85
b. Average violations of contract of
Aaa, Aa, and Baa ratings two years
and five years after being rated
for period 1919-1931* PP* 85-88
3.
Average durability and violations of
contract of Aaa, Aa, and Baa ratings
by maturities one to six years after
being rated, pp. 88-90
TABLE OF CONTENTS
(continued)
Page
Chapter V
RESULTS OF BOND RATING STUDY
Page
Reasons for not using yield classifica
tion as standards of quality rather
than the ratings .•.... •..... .......
Quantitative and qualitative evidence
for believing the ratings are homo­
geneous in quality regardless of in­
clusion of railroad, public utility,
industrial, etc. bonds within each
rating group ...... ............... .
90-93
93,9*,97,98
Evidence for belief that greatest
decline in ratings occurred in 1931-
1932 ........
9^-96
Chapter VI
APPLICATION OF THE RESULTS OF THE
STUDY OF BOND PRICE DECLINES TO THE
INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO OF THE INDIVIDUAL BANK
99
Explanation of a method by which percen­
tages of bond price decline may be applied
to the bond portfolio of an individual bank .... 99-102
Explanation of method by which the total
loss in market value of the bond portfolio
(as of the past period of maximum decline)
may be related to the equity available
for absorbing losses. This gives a per­
centage which is called "Risk Ratio."........... lOl-lOl*
A brief general consideration of the
"Risk Ratio."
.......
10l*-105
Bibliography
106
Appendices
108
Appendix A- CORPORATION BOND PRICE AND YIELD
INDEXES COVERING THE PERIOD 1915-1938
109-159
TABLE OF CONTENTS
(continued)
Pa are
Appendix B
Appendix C
Appendix D
Appendix E
Appendix F
Appendix
Appendix H
MONTHLY PRICE QUOTATIONS ON 1,1+13
CORPORATE DOMESTIC CUBAN AND
CANADIAN BONDS CLASSIFIED BY
MOODY*S RATINGS AND BY MATURITIES
160-282
HISTORY OF Aaa RATINGS ON ALL
BONDS SO RATED ANY TIME FROM
1919 TO 1938
283-301
HISTORY OF Baa RATINGS ON ALL
BONDS SO RATED ANY TIME FROM
1919 TO 1938
302-321
WORKING PAPERS FOR CALCULATIONS OF
MONTHLY ARITHMETIC MEAN’S OF PRICES
M Y 1931 - JUNE 1932
322-328
DISTRIBUTION OF BONDS BY MATURITIES
AND RATINGS
329-330
ARITHMETIC MEANS, MONTHLY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MEANS, CUMULATIVE MONTHLY DECLINES AND
YEARLY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MEANS OF
CORPORATE BOND PRICES LISTED IN
APPENDIX B
331-31+6
ADVANCES BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
ON OTHER THAN ELIGIBLE COLLATERAL
3U7-3U9
LIST OF TABLES
WOOSTER*S CALCULATION OF MAXIMUM YIELD INCREASES
WOOSTER*S CALCULATIONS OF MAXIMUM PRICE DECLINES
PERCENTAGES REALIZED, OR PRESUMABLY REALIZABLE,
AS OF THE LAST OF JUNE 1932 FROM INVESTMENTS
MADE IN 1929 IN CORPORATE SECURITIES OF VARIOUS
RATINGS AND MATURITIES
LUNDEN*S CALCULATION OF THE "RISK RATIO”
MOODY’S STUDY OF YIELD FLUCTUATIONS FOR ALL DOMESTIC
CORPORATE BONDS 1919-1937
(Aaa bonds of Various Maturities)
MOODY1S STUDY OF YIELD FLUCTUATIONS (continued)
(Aa, A and Baa 30 y ear Maturity)
EXAMPLE OF APPLICATION OF DESIRABILITY WEIGHTS
TO HYPOTHETICAL PORTFOLIOS
NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AVERAGE PRICE OF DOMESTIC
BONDS 1925 - 1938
DOW JONES BOND INDEX 1915 - 1938
MOODY’S BOND YIELD AVERAGES, 120 DOMESTIC CORPORATION
BONDS 1919 - 1938
MOODY’S BOND YIELD AVERAGES, Aaa DOMESTIC CORPORATION
BONDS 1919 - 1938
MOODY’S BOND YIELD AVERAGES, Aa DOMESTIC CORPORATION
BONDS 1919 - 1938
MOODY’S BOND YIELD AVERAGES, A DOMESTIC CORPORATION
BONDS 1919 - 1938
MOODY’S BOND YIELD AVERAGES, Baa DOMESTIC CORPORATION
BONDS 1919 - 1938
DECLINES IN POINTS IN CORPORATE BOND PRICES BY RATINGS
AND MATURITIES FOR TWELVE MONTHS 1931 - 1932
(May to May and June to June 1931-1932)
(Monthly Arithmetic Mean of
Corporate 3onds of five million size or over)
LIST OF TABLES
(continued)
MAXIMUM DECLINES IN POINTS IN CORPORATE BOND PRICES
BY RATINGS AND MATURITIES FOR TWELVE MONTHS
1931 - 1932
(May to May or June to June Whichever Larger)
(Monthly Arithmetic Mean of Corporate Bonds of five
million size or over)
DECLINES IN POINTS IN CORPORATE BOND PRICES BY RATINGS
AND MATURITIES FOR TWELVE MONTES
1931 - 1932
(May to May and June to June 1931“1932)
(Monthly Medians of Corporate Bonds of five million
si ze or over)
MAXIMUM DECLINES IN POINTS IN CORPORATE BOND PRICES
BY RATINGS AND MATURITIES FOR TWELVE MONTES
1931 - 1932
(May to May or June to Jim© Whichever Larger)
(Monthly Medians of Corporate Bonds of five million
size or over)
PERCENTAGE DECLINES IN CORPORATE BOND iRICES BY RATINGS
AND MATURITIES FROM MAY TO MAY AND JUNE TO
JUNE 1931 “ 1932
(Monthly Arithmetic Means of Corporate bonds of five
million size or over)
MAXIMUM PERCENTAGE DECLINES IN CORPORATE BOND PRICES
BY RATINGS AND MATURITIES FOR TWELVE MONTHS
1931 “ 1932
(May to May or June to June Whichever Larger)
(Monthly Arithmetic Mean of Corporate Bonds of five
million size or over)
PERCENTAGE DECLINES IN CORPORATE BOND PRICES BY RATINGS
AND MATURITIES FROM MAY TO MAY AND JUNE TO
JUNE 1931 “ 1932
(Mont h l y Median of Corporate Bonds of five million size
and over)
LIST OF TABLES
(continued)
Page
MAXIMUM PERCENTAGE DECLINES IN CORPORATE BOND PRICES
BY RATINGS AND MATURITIES FOR .TWELVE MONTHS
1931 " 1932
(May to May or June to June "Whichever Larger)
(Monthly Medians of Corporate Bonds of five million
size or over)
6h
MAXIMUM MONTHLY DECLINES IN POINTS IN CORPORATE BOND PRICES
BY RATINGS AND MATURITIES DURING THE PERIOD
MAY 1931 TO JUNE 1932
(Monthly Arithmetic Mean of Corporate Bonds of five million
size or over)
65
MAXIMUM MONTHLY PERCENTAGE DECLINES IN CORPORATE BOND PRICES
BY RATINGS AND MATURITIES DURING THE PERIOD
MAY 1931 TO JUNE 1932
(Monthly Arithmetic Mean of Corporate Bonds of five million
size or over)
65
MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE MONTHLY DECLINES OF BOND PRICES IN POINTS
FOR THE PERIOD MAY 1931 TO JUNE 1932
(Based on Monthly Arithmetic Means of Corporate bonds of five
million size and over)
66
MAXIMUM PERCENTAGE CUMULATIVE MONTHLY DECLINES OF BOND
PRICES FOR THE PERIOD MAY 1931 TO JUNE 1932
(Based on Monthly Arithmetic Means of Corporate bonds
of five million size or over)
66
DURABILITY OF Aaa, Aa AND Baa RATINGS FOR TIVO YEAR AND
FIVE YEAR PERIODS
(Moody’s Ratings)
&k
PERCENTAGE VIOLATIONS OF CONTRACT OF Aaa, Aa AND Baa RATINGS
FOR TVIO YEAR AND FIVE YEAR PERIODS
86
HISTORY OF BONDS BY RATINGS AND MATURITIES
- PERCENTAGE SAME OR HIGHER RATING OR CALLED
- PERCENTAGE VIOLATIONS OF CONTRACT
89
RATINGS DURING VARIOUS PHASES OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE
9 ,-96
APPLICATION OF PERCENTAGE DECLINES BY RATINGS AND MATURITIES
TO AN INDIVIDUAL BANK’S BOND
PORTFOLIO
100
CALCULATION OF AVAILABLE EQUITY AND ITS RELATIONSHIP TO
MAXIMUM BOND PORTFOLIO LOSS
101
LIST OF CHARTS
MONTHLY MEAN PRICES OF BONDS MATURING TO 2 YEARS
CLASSIFIED BY RATINGS
(May 1931 - June 1932)
MONTHLY MEAN PRICES OF BONDS MATURING 2 TO 5 YEARS
CLASSIFIED BY RATINGS
(May 1931 - June 1932)
MONTHLY MEAN PRICES OF BONDS MATURING 5 TO 10 YEARS
CLASSIFIED BY RATINGS
(May 1931 “ June 1932)
MONTHLY MEAN PRICES OF BONDS MATURING 10 TO 20 YEARS
CLASSIFIED BY RATINGS
(May 1931 - June 1932)
- MONTHLY MEAN PRICES OF BONDS MATURING 20 TO 30 YEARS
CLASSIFIED BY RATINGS
(May 1931 “ June 1932)
MONTHLY MEAN PRICES OF BONDS MATURING 30 YEARS AND OYER
CLASSIFIED BY RATINGS
(May 1931 “ June 1932)
MONTHLY MEAN PRICES OF Aaa BONDS CLASSIFIED BY MATURITY
(May 1931 - June 1932)
MONTHLY MEAN PRICES OF Aa BONDS CLASSIFIED BY MATURITY
(May 1931 ” June 1932)
MONTHLY MEAN PRICES OF A BONDS CLASSIFIED BY MATURITY
(May 1931 ” June 1932)
MONTHLY MEAN PRICES OF Baa BONDS CLASSIFIED BY MATURITY
(May 1931 - June 1932)
MONTHLY MEAN PRICES OF MISCELLANEOUS BONDS CLASSIFIED
BY MATURITY
(May 1931 “ June 1932)
1
Chapter I
REVIEW OF THE PROBLEM AND ITS SOLUTION
The motive leading to the research in this dissertation was the desire
to obtain a more effective set of methods for determining the proper si2e
and composition of the bond portfolio of an individual bank*
The problem
therefore, is one in banking practice and policy but is limited to bond
portfolios alone, ±n fact, being restricted to corporate bonds*
MHow large a bond account can a bank hold without fear of suffering
a crippling loss in value?”
The answer, in general, is that a bank can
hold a portfolio of bonds the loss on which it can afford to absorb.
are two implicit problems posed by this answer.
the loss be in a group of bonds?"
The first is:
There
"What will
Such a question can never be answered
with certainty because the future is never certain.
to look to the past as an aid to the future.
But we are permitted
The greatest decline in bond
prices in the past may be measured statistically and Is so measured in this
dissertation.
Maximum price declines are determined for domestic, Canadian^
and Cuban corporate issues by maturities and by ratings which ratings are
accepted as criteria of quality.
A subsidiary problem of this dissertation
is to show that the ratings are satisfactory standards of quality.
clusion is that the Moody’s ratings are good measures of quality.
The con­
The
statistical evidence for this conclusion was provided by Moody's Investors
Service.
±t contains a complete (not a sample) study of the Aaa, Aa and
Baa ratings from 1919 to 1938.
A further conclusion from the study of the
data supplied by Moodys* is that the 1931-1932 period which is the period
2
selected as that of maximum bond market decline, is also the period of
the greatest decline in quality, i.e., the ratings.
The ratings of Moody's
Investors Service are used as measures of the bond quality in this disser­
tation.
The period of maximum yearly price decline is decided upon by exam­
ining the action of a series of index numbers.
The period judged, that
of maximum decline by this method, is from May 1931 to and including June
193^*
After the period was determined, individual corporate bond prices
were collected monthly for the fourteen months May— June 1931-1932.
Aver­
ages of the yearly figures on a monthly basis, monthly prices, and cumula­
tive monthly prices are shown by rating and maturity groups.
are also given in percentage form.
The averages
The result is a set of tables indicating
the maximum percentage by which bonds declined in price since 1919*
This
gives the answer to the first problem.
The second problem implicitly contained in the answer to the question,
"Kow large a bond account can a bank hold without fear of suffering a crip­
pling loss in value?" is "What is the loss absorbing power of the bank?"
The answer given is that it is the sum of the surplus, undivided profits,
and unallocated reserves, if any, plus the appreciation of the market value
of the bond account over its book value, or minus the depreciation of the
market value below the book values.
This gives the "cushion" of the bank
available for the absorption of losses in any of the assets held.
Because
we are interested only in the amount available for absorption of bond losses
a portion of this cushion must be set aside for losses in the other assets,
the chief of which are the loans and discounts.
Therefore, from the "cushion"
3
3% of loans and discounts is deducted.
3>% represents approximately the
maximum yearly loss suffered by banks since
1927 on their loan accounts.
(1)
The remaining figure represents in dollars the amount of loss in bonds which
the bank can take and still retain its capital stock unimpaired.
In brief
this is the answer given to the second problem.
The relationship of
the maximum loss which the bank would have taken
had it held bonds of like maturity and rating in the May-June 1931-1932
period as it holds now and the loss absorbing power of the bank in indi­
cated finally in one figure which is called the "Risk Ratio."
The "Risk
Ratio" is obtained by dividing the maximum loss figure by the "cushion"
available to absorb bond losses.
it in percentage form.
The meaning of the "Risk Ratio" is best explained
by a few simple examples.
works out to be lOO^o.
The answer is multiplied by 100 to put
Suppose the "Risk Ratio" of a particular bank
This means that the bank's bond loss absorbing power
is equal to the maximum loss suffered on a portfolio of like quality and
maturity.
If the "Risk Ratio" is say, 110% it means that the maximum bond
loss figure is 10% greater than the loss absorbing power of the bank.
If
the "Risk Ratio" is 90% then the maximum bond loss is only 90% of the loss
absorbing power of the bank.
The above indicates very briefly the generalized method proposed as a
policy tool to aid bank management in determining the size and, to a degree
the composition of its bond portfolio.
1
See Chapter II, p. 20
^t is based on the past action
and Chapter ¥1, p. 101and 103-
of
k
the bond market hut it does not pretend to forecast the future movement
of hond prices.
It is descriptive.
It tells the hanker what the maximum
loss in market values of honds similar in quality and maturity has heen
and relates that loss to the hanker1s own bank*s loss absorbing power.
On this information plus any other pertinent influences affecting him the
hanker may exercise his judgment as to the proper size of his hond port­
folio.
But it is claimed that the data and methods suggested in this dis­
sertation give hank management a more adequate basis on which to supervise
the hond portfolio.
5
Chapter II
STATEMENT OE TEE PROBLEM
AML
REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE
The problem of hank hond investments has become increasingly important
during the last ten years.
Banks traditionally favor the making of loans
and discounts over the purchase of bonds.
As a result of the depression
years, however, loans and discounts shrank considerably and became a smaller
source of income to banks generally.
On the other hand the bond portfolios
of commercial banks began to play an increasingly important role among the
earning assets and as a source of income.
So important did the investments
become in relation to the loans that in the early part of 193 ^ the dollar
volume of investments held by reporting member banks in 101 leading cities
1
passed the dollar volume of loans. At that time investments rose above
$9*^00*000,000 while loans remained slightly below $9*000*000,000.
From
the early part of 193 ^ to the middle of 193 ^ the investments rose rapidly
to just over $14,000,000,000.
Loans, however, declined slowly and again
rose slowly not passing the $9 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0 figure until the end of 193 ^Investments, after reaching a figure slightly higher than $14,000,000,000
in the middle ©f 19 3 ^ declined to around $1 2 ,000 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0 at the end of
1937 and then again rose to over $14,000,000,000 in the last months of
1939*
Loans rose after the end of 193& to $10,000,000,000 in 1937 and
thereafter declined.
In the later months of 1939 loans were around
$3,500,000,000.
It ^s evident from the above figures that the reporting member banks
in 101 leading cities have become more and more like investment trusts
1
Federal Reserve Charts on Bank Credit Money Rates and Business, Board
of Governors of Federal Reserve System, p . 1 4
because the banks are holding greater amounts of securities.
of commercial banks to investment trusts is only superficial.
The similarity
Besides the
fact that banks do not invest in stocks the ban k ’s investment problem is
much different from that of the investment trust because of the necessity
of maintaining a greater or less degree of liquidity.
The commercial bank
is under the necessity of meeting any demands for cash made upon it by its
depositors.
This the investment trust is not under obligation to do.
The
potential necessity of supplying cash to the depositors forces the bank at
all times to consider the ways and means of providing this cash.
It makes
little difference as far as the individual bank is concerned whether we
call the items used to get this cash liquid or shiftable,
xt is enough as
far as the purposes of this dissertation are concerned .to note that cash may
be obtained by the use of short maturities, marketability and by borrowing
or selling to other banks including the Federal Reserve Banks.
The principal means of obtaining cash from the b a n k ’s bond portfolio
is through marketability.
Although it must be recognized that in the case
of United States government obligations member banks may borrow from Federal
Reserve for fifteen days, it is the exceptional case for other bonds (See
Appendix H) .
Therefore in so far as the bank’s portfolio is composed of bonds
other than United Spates government obligations, commercial banks are thrown
back upon marketability and short maturities as devices for obtaining liquidity.
Because money market and bond market conditions were such in 1939 and for
several years previous that longer term bonds gave larger yields than shorter
term bonds of equal quality, banks have had to sacrifice income whenever they
have purchased the shorter term bonds in preference to the longer term issues.
There was, therefore, a tendency for banks to favor longer term bonds for the
7
greater income involved.
This meant that the liquidity of the bond portfolio
in the case of the longer issues depended entirely upon marketability.
From
this the importance of marketability becomes evident.
The importance of market conditions in relation to bank investments is
emphasized when consideration is given to the influence of the business cycle
on both the banks1 deposits and the price of the bonds themselves.
Xt is not
necessary for the purposes of this dissertation to maintain that there is a
positive correlation between low bond prices and deposit withdrawals.
But
there is a theory which says that deposits are first withdrawn; then the banks*
bonds are sold which results in lower price quotations for the bonds.
Under
this theory the banks are the marginal element in the bond market thereby being
the important influence in bond price determination.
In the cyclical down­
swing the withdrawal of deposits or in any event the prospect of withdrawal
of deposits may be taken as the cause leading to the sale of bonds by the
bank.
Because it is true that all prices are interrelated and it is there­
fore difficult to isolate the direction in which cause and effect, flow in
the above theory and because our problem is not concerned with the inter­
relations of price particularly but with an attempt to make an estimate of
the greatest decline of bond prices in the last twenty years, in order to
relate such decline to the risk absorbing power of the bank, the above
theory may be passed over.
Because bond prices are low at the same time that deposits are with­
drawn it is sometimes difficult for individual banks to realize enough cash
by the sale of their bonds along with the realization of eash from other
sources to pay off all deposits as demanded.
This comes about for two
reasons.
In the first place the market for the bonds which the bank holds
may have dried up.
In the second place the price which the bank gets for
the bonds may be excessively low.
If the bank cannot realize enough cash
to pay off deposits it must, of course, close its doors.
Even though an individual bank may be able to realize enough cash from
its bond sales and other sources to pay off its deposit demands the loss
which it must take on the sale of its bonds at low prices may be great
enough to wipe out the undivided profits and surplus and even impair the
capital stock.
Assuming the bank is a national bank, an impaired capital
stock means that the bank legally must be closed.
Viewing the situation
from the standpoint of the owners of the banks' capital stock and the banks'
management, such a situation must be avoided.
The general problem of this dissertation is to measure the greatest
decline in bond prices that has occured
in any year and in the intervening
months of that year in order to relate that decline to the loss absorbing
capacity of the bank as represented by its equity account exclusive of its
capital stock account or in other words its surplus,undivided profits and
its contingency
of unallocated reserves.
The purpose of this is to pro­
vide the management of an individual bank with information which will en­
able it to properly supervise the size and composition of its corporate
bond portfolio.
Because there is not only a market risk involved in a
bond portfolio but also a risk of deterioration of quality a measurement
of this quality risk is undertaken in this dissertation.
The problem is made more clear if we consider an example.
Let us
suppose a small bank with $100,000 capital, $100,000 surplus and $25*000
9
undivided profits.
The question which the management first faces is:
big a bond portfolio can we hold without excessive risk of loss?”
in general terms is:
’’How
The answer
"The bank can carry in its portfolio a total of bonds,
the risk of loss on which will not exceed the surplus and undivided profits.”
The risk of loss, both in market and in quality cannot be greater than this;
because if it is, the capital stock may become impaired by the losses and the
bank be closed.
Moreover, if the risk of loss is much greater, not only may
the capital, surplus and undivided profits be wiped out but the deposit lia­
bility may not be all paid, either in complete liquidation of the bank or
immediately upon demand.
The literature in the field of bank bond investment in connection with
this question is sparse indeed.
There was little written in either banking
texts or investment texts on the subject.
It was not until 1932 that a
specialized text on bank bond investment appeared.
In that year Bernhard
(2)
Ostrolenk and Adrian M. Massie wrote How Banks Buy Bonds.
These writers
suggested the following as a way for the management to determine the size of
the bond account.
”To insure reasonable safety of the bank, the regular
bond account should be considered not more than.......two and a half times
(3)
the liquid capital funds..... ”
The authors define liquid capital funds
as ” •...the total capital funds less the amount invested in banking house,
m
furniture, and fixtures."
The authors further state:
” ....we must assume that prudence dictates that the management of
the bond account be so conservative that even under the most ad­
verse circumstances the loss in the bond account should not exceed
50% of the liquid funds, so that the remainder of the liquid capi­
tal funds may still be available as a protection for depositors
against a decline in other assets.” (5)
It is important to inquire as to how the figure of
2.
3
b
5
Ostrolenk and Massie, How Bg.nks Buy Bonds, Harper Brothers 1932
Ibid., p. 155
Ibid., p. Ib3
Ibid., p. lb5
10
two and a half times the liquid capital funds is determined.
This is found
by the author* s examination of the decline in Standard Statistics average for
sixty high-grade bonds from the high point in 1928 to April 13, 1932.
decline amounted to 22.2 percent.
This
Therefore the conclusion is reached:
**Let us assume, therefore, that the decline in the bond account
against which a bank must protect itself is approximately twenty
percent......... This figure represents approximately two and
a half times the total liquid capital funds and would seem to
be the maximum volume of bonds, subject to fluctuation, which
this country bank would be justified in holding if it is to
withstand the maximum strain to be placed on it under the most
unfavorable circumstances. 11 (5 )
Let us 'apply the standard set up above to our bank having a capital of
$100,000, surplus of $100,000 and undivided profits of $25*0 00 . We
shall assume
that there are no deductions
these items
tobe made from the total of
by way of furniture, fixtures and banking building.
total liquid capital funds will then amount to $225*000.
times this amount
value of the
The
Two and a half
will give us $562 ,500 * It will be the total maximum
bond account which this bank
should hold.
This type of
analysis is satisfactory as a rough estimate of the maximum bond port­
folio of a commercial bank but there are a number of objections and
criticisms which may be made.
In the first place, from the fact that the
authors used the Standard Statistics Index for high grade bonds means
that this tegt may be applied to bank bond portfolios which contain only
high grade bonds.
In other words the twenty percent decline which this
index measured applies only to the best grade bonds. It is plain that many
banks do not hold highest grade bonds to the exclusion of the other issues
5
Ibid., p. 1^5
In order more accurately to measure the problem of loss in
the bank’s bond
portfolio, it is necessary to
decline in bond
determine the maximum market
of quality lower than the highest.
It is suggested that a suitable way to
accomplish this is to determine the maximum amount of the market decline
experienced in bonds of different ratings.
Thus in this dissertation an
attempt is made to measure the maximum declines in corporate bond ratings
Aaa, Aa, A, Baa, and those bonds of lower rating and no rating at all which
will be classified as miscellaneous.
In the second place, Ostrolenk and Massie have not taken account of
the fact that the market declines of bonds of different maturities may be
expected to be different.
Theoretically we may expect that the longer the
maturities, the greater the market decline in bond prices.
To test this
theory, corporate bond prices
are examined historically by maturities in
this dissertation in order to
ascertain the amount of maximum decline for
various maturity groupings.
In the third place it is plain that the authors do not take account
of possible deterioration in quality of bonds held in the bank’s portfolio
On first sight it appears evident that there is not only a risk of market
decline but also a risk of loss from a decline in quality of the bonds
held.
This problem raises a number of questions.
How are we to determine
what bonds are high grade, what bonds are medium grade and what bonds are
speculative in nature?
one group to another?
How are we to determine the changes of bonds from
Because in this dissertation we are using Moody's
Bond Eatings in studying the amount of market declines by quality, we
12
shall also examine changes in quality itself by an examination of the
sufficiency of the ratings*
In the fourth place, Ostrolenk and Massie deduct from the total
equity of the bank those items on the asset side -which they consider to
be non-liquidating such as banking house, furniture and fixtures.
does not seem necessary.
This
It must be assumed that the bank has not in­
vested a disproportionate amount of its assets in these ’'fixed" items
and that these items are calculated at reasonable value.
It is, of
course, true that if the bank cannot obtain its book value for such
fixed assets in its final liquidation it will then not be able to pay
off its stockholders at the equity values stated on the books but such
a condition does not occur until after a bank has failed.
In a going
institution the first losses charged against undivided profits and sur­
plus are the losses on loans and discounts, losses on the investments,
and the losses on the secondary reserve items.
As a practical matter $
if there is an adequate amount in the equity accounts not including the
capital stock account, the bank will be able to continue business because
there will be no impairment of capital stock.
The problem is therefore
not one involving the deduction of fixed non-liquid assets such as banking
building but is one involving the adequacy of the equity accounts to
absorb losses taken in the loans and discounts, investments and securities
reserve.
A better approach to this phase of the problem will be presented
in Chapter VI.
Another book concerned with the problem of bank bond investment
policy is that of J. Harvie Wilkinson, Jr., called "Investment Policies
for Commercial Banks."Mr. Wilkinson
problem of the proper
takes the same approach to the
size of the bond
as did Ostrolenk and Massie.
portfolio of the commercial bank
Wilkinson, by his definition of the secondary
reserve assumes that there will be no loss on any bond items held therein.
Arbitrarily all bonds maturing at four years or less are considered secondary
reserves if such bonds are also of prime quality.
Wilkinson means by a bond investment account.
maturity dates longer
than four years.
mines the size of the
bond account?
It is easy to see what
It includes all bonds with
What does Wilkinson believe deter­
He says: "The size of the account will
be determined by several factors, the dominant one of which is the size and
condition of the capital account of the institution."
This idea is similar
to the one advanced by Ostrolenk and Massie for determination of the bond
account size.
A valuable new idea is introduced at this point and this is
that banks buy bonds on margin.
Expressing the ideas of this dissertation
rather than of Wilkinson, it is clear that the funds of the bank are pro­
vided by two chief sources; by the capital stock holders and by the depositors
The stockholders are owners and the depositors are creditors of the institu­
tion.
If the stockholders have provided $1.00 of funds and the depositors
have provided $9*00 of funds, every bond purchased may be thought of as
consisting of 10^ of stockholderfs money and 90 ^ of depositorTs money for
every dollar invested.
In as much as the depositors are fixed creditors,
any loss in the bond must be deducted from the stockholder^ 10^.
If the
loss is greater then the depositors will suffer and quite plainly, the bank
will close.
7
8
J. Harvie Wilkinson, Jr., Investment Policies for Commercial Banks,
Harper and Brothers, 1938*
Ibid., p. 14+
Ill
The margin is the stock holder's contribution.
We may look upon a hank's
bond investment as we would look upon the purchase of bonds in a brokerage
account in which we have placed our margin and borrowed the balance from the
broker*
In the case of
the broker and of the bank, losses are first deducted
from the ’'owner" of theaccount or the institution,
Wilkinson mentions the idea of liquid cspital as advanced by Ostrolenk
and Massie,
As stated above, it is not believed that this idea is particularly
helpful.
A further new idea is that not only must the liquid capital, which is
now called the "cushion” absorb losses from the bond portfolio but also
must absorb losses from the loans and discounts.
The question here arises
as to the medium of allocating the amounts of the "cushion" to the bond
account on the one hand
Wilkinson suggests that:
and the loans and discounts portfolio on the other,
"Liquid capital
should be allocated as a cushion
for the bond investment account and the loan account on the same percentage
(9)
basis that each of these portfolios bears to the total of the two," This
is one solution.
There are other ways to handle this problem and they will
be discussed later,on.
Wilkinson's conclusions as to the maximum size of the bond portfolio
are slightly different from those of Ostrolenk and Massie.
He says:
"On the basis of the behavior of different groups of securities
in the periods from 19225-1932 an<l from 1917 “1920 , it can be
said that a bank’s bond investment account should range between
two and one half and four times the amount of net capital funds
allocated to the support of bonds. Never should the size of
the account exceed the more distant outpost." (10 )
9
10
Ibid. , p.
Ibid., p. bh
The author arrives at his figures of two and one half to four times liquid
capital funds by examining the actions of a number of indexes.
He states
that the Standard Statistic composite average for ^'forty-five high grade
bonds declined between March 1928 and December 1932 to the amount of 22#7
percent and that the decline was 2 8 .8 percent if we extend the period to
March 1, 1933•
Ee therefore selects a figure of 25 percent as representa­
tive of the decline during this general period.
Because this index re­
presents only high grade issues, he then examines the New York Stock Ex­
change index of all corporate listed bonds.
price was 97*^ percent of par.
He finds that the 1928 high
As of December 3 1 , 1932, these bonds were
quoted at 6 3 .2 8 percent of par.
declined to 60.17 percent of par.
As of March 1, 1933*
figure had
Furthermore he observes that there
was a decline of about *40 percent by all listed foreign government bonds
including foreign government state and municipal issues.
These figures
are taken as an indication of the general trend including, not only the
high grade issues but all types of quality bonds.
His conclusions from
these f igures is that the run-of-mine bonds declined *40 percent in the 19281933 period.
Wilkinson also takes Standard Statistics composite index of
January 1 7 , to July 1920 and finds a decline of 23*2 percent.
This is
not much different from the decline experienced from 1928 to 193 3 *
figures are available for the New York Stock Exchange listed bonds for
the 1917-1920 period.
The point is stressed that if in the future a *40 percent decline is
experienced in the prices of bonds held by a bank that not only will
16
the capital fund exclusive of the capital stock be lost but also all equity
items will be wiped out.
This means that the capital stock would not merely
be impaired but would be completely eliminated.
As Wilkinson says:
"One
does not like to have capital impaired! „ (ll)
Wilkinson has made advances over the proposals of Ostrolenk and Massie.
He has differentiated between the price minimums of high price bonds and
lower grade bonds.
He also makes a more penetrating study of the division
of the equity between the loans, discounts and the investment account.
Commenting upon Ostrolenk and Massie who assumed that the equity could be
divided fifty-fifty between loans and discounts, Wilkinson states that if
the bond portfolio is weak in quality while the loans and discounts are
sound then the fifty-fifty division of the equity is not satisfactory.
A
greater amount of the equity should be allocated to the investment port­
folio.
In 1939 James W. Wooster, Jr., wrote a book called Banker's Handbook
(12)
of Bond Investment.
Wooster's approach to the problem of the maximum
size of the bond portfolio of the commercial bank is similar to that of
the authors already discussed.
He says:
"Broadly speaking, the size and composition of the Investment
Reserve will be determined by the amount of potential risk
involved and the ability of the bank to properly assume this
risk. The rough measure of this ability is the size and com­
position of the equity items which provide the margin of pro­
tection for the depositors.” (13)
In general the term "Investment Reserve" as used by Wooster means all
the U. S. (Government bond holdings due after five years and other
11
12
13
Ibid., p. ip.
James W. Wooster, Jr., Banker's Handbook of Bond Investment, Harper
and Brothers, 1939*
Ibid., p. 108
1?
securities including corporates and municipals.
It is pointed out that there
are two types of potential risk in the bond portfolio, one being due to
changes in the level of interest rates which is applicable to high grade
bonds, the other being due to a change anticipated in general business con­
ditions or in the credit standing of the bond.
This is a well known classi­
fication of bonds.
Wooster mentions the same standards as T'/ilkinsan.
He says that index
numbers of bond prices declined between 1929 and 1933 by 25 percent and i+0
percent.
He is critical, however, of the use of these figures by which
the bond account would be limited to two and one half to four times the
net equity.
He objects because he does not believe that this quantitative
rule takes into consideration what he calls qualitative factors.
For ex­
ample he states that the maximum fluctuation in government bond prices has
been much less than the maximum fluctuation in Baa ^ilroads.
What this
criticism really amounts to is that the "two and one half to four times"
rule is not a refined enough tool for the proper analysis of bond portfolios.
A further objection to the use of this rule is made by Wooster when he states:
"A solely quantitative yardstick also overlooks the fact that price fluctua­
tions, particularly in the higher quality brackets, are also influenced by
maturities."
The solution given by Wooster to this problem is found by
taking Moody’s monthly index of yields of bonds by ratings and industries and
determining the maximum spread of yields in any year and the maximum yield
increase in any one movement.
lh
Ibid., p. lll+
These figures are obtained from the use of the
indexes of a nineteen year period* The following table shows his results in
(15)
terms of yields*
WOOSTER* S CALCULATIONS OF MAXIMUM YIELD INCREASES
Average Maximum
Maximum*
**
Spread
Spread
Yield Increase
Maximun
Per
Any
Any One
Total
Year
Year
Movement
Spread
U.S. Gov't*
•h7%
l.Olfo
1.22'/o
3 -b9fo
Aaa-Rail
Util •
Ind.
•1+2
.ho
.1+0
1.30
0.96
1.03
1-77
1*37
I .03
2.76
3-75
3-57
Aa -Rail.
Util.
Ind.
.68
.50
.52
2.7U
1.03
1.3U
2.89
1.28
2*06
3-89
3.61
J4.06
A
-Rail.
Util.
Ind.
•93
•75
.66
3-75
1.83
2 .3U
5-31
2.76
2.96
6.15
I4..1I4.
1+.1+7
Baa-Rail.
Util.
Ind.
1.60
1.07
1.02
6.22
3 *22
3-95
9.2U
5.52
5-15
9.32
6.20
6.71
*Translated into the terminology of this dissertation this heading means:
"Maximum Cumulated and Uninterrupted Monthly Rise in Yield."
**This means the spread between high and low yields for the nineteen year
period•
The above table does not include the element of maturity which is, of
course, an important factor in yield changes*
This is definitely one of the
differences of Wooster's approach.
Because commercial bankers are interested not in the changes of yields
but in decline in terms of dollar value, Wooster has converted the yields
and the yield increase into terms of price quotations and dollar value de­
clines.
He assumes certain maturities for the bond portfolio and also as­
sumes an average coupon for each one of the ratings and those groups shown
in the above table.
Finding the yields on this assumed portfolio he adds
the proper yield increase found under the column "Maximum Yield Increase
15
Ibid., p. 117
19
Any One Movement."
This gives the yiaTd which would prevail if prices
declined after December 31* 1938 by
amount represented by the maximum
monthly rise in yields in the nineteen year period.
Further assuming that
the particular bank’s portfolio is being analyzed of December 31* 193$ he
makes calculations of the potential declines in points of the bonds involved.
(16)
These estimates are as follows:
WOOSTER’S CALCULATIONS OF MAXIMUM PRICE DECLINES
Quality
Group
Aaa
Aaa
Aaa
Industry
Group
Dec. 31* 1938
Equivalent
Minimum
Prices
Projected
for
Prices for
Bonds of
Bonds of
Type
Type
Assumed
Assumed
U.S. Gov’ts.
103
90%
Railroads
Utilities
Industrials
98 3/1+
108
111-J-
971b
82%
9O2
Est
Potential
Potential
Dollar
Point
Amount
Declines
of Declines
from
for
Deo. 31*
Assumed
1938
Portfolio
Prices
(In Millions) (17)
12%
16%
17s'
12 3/b
21
929
75
79
62
96
67
101
Aa
Aa
Aa
Railroads
Utilities
Industrials
98%
111
112
77s
9&£
892
A
A
A
Railroads
Utilities
Industrials
97 3/8
108%
Ill's
60
82
81 3/b
37 3/8
26%
29 3/+
173
119
13^4-
Baa
Baa
Baa
Railroads
Utilities
Industrials
83 3/h
102 5/8
107 3/8
1+5
62
67
1+0 3/+
1+0 5/8
1+0 3/8
185
183
182
ll+ 3/1+
22%
The next step in the problem is to relate the potential risk of
market decline to the risk assuming ability of the bank.
in much the same way as Wilkinson.
This he does
He makes the interesting observation
that a bank whose equity consists predominately of capital stock should
assume less risk in relation to total equity than would be proper for a
16
17
Ibid., p. 123
Wooster is basing his estimates of dollar decline on a composite
bond portfolio for the banking system.
20
bank with total equity consisting to a greater extent of surplus undivided
profits and reserves.
We have taken notice of this fact previously by
saying that the capital stock account cannot be considered as available for
absorption of losses in bond account because the capital stock cannot be
impaired.
A further interesting observation is that losses on loans should nor­
mally be charged against income and not against capital but he recognizes
that in certain years the income will not be sufficient to cover losses on
loans.
Then the loss must be written off against the equity accounts.
A
new and more refined idea of the proper way to allocate the equity by the
loans and discounts and investments is advanced by Wooster.
H© says that
the net losses on loans of all member banks in the year 1927-193& reached a
maximum in the year
loans.
193h when the total net losses were 3*3 percent of total
He therefore suggests that this maximum loss on loans as determined
historically should be deducted from the equity before arriving at the figure
representing the amount available to absorb bond market losses.
A further refinement is brought to light in the discussion of book value
of bonds as against their market value.
It should be observed that if the
book value of the bonds is greater than the market value of the bonds on the
date of analysis the equity of the bank is over-stated by the difference
between the total market value and the book value.
This means that the risk
absorbing capacity of the bank is over-stated and the difference should be
subtracted from the equity before ascertaining the figure which may be allo­
cated against bond market losses.
The general conclusions for policy action in connection with the bond
21
portfolio of a bank are clearly shown by the following conditions.
"Conservatism would dictate that potential market fluctuations
during any cycle embracing consecutive years of decline be
limited to an amount not greater than that portion of equity
available for this purpose.
In some instances a reduction in
the size of the investment reserve will be necessary in order
to bring total estimated potential risks within the bank’s
capacity." (18)
It is rather apparent that Wooster has made a distinct advance in
bettering the methods of analysis involved in the determination of the
proper size of a bank's bond portfolio.
The imperfections, it is be­
lieved, will be brought out later by the discussion of the results of
the investigations made for this dissertation.
One of the imperfections of Wooster’s method is the use of the
Moody’s bond yield indexes as the only basis for estimating the poten­
tial risk involved in bonds of different quality.
The imperfection of
this method is further emphasized by the estimate Wooster makes of the
maturities.
A more realistic approach to the problem can be made by
the actual statistical study of bonds by quality and by maturities.
Such a study based on a sample of lf.00 securities was made by Fred L.
Garlock, Senior Agricultural Economist, Bureau of Agricultural Economicst
in an article called "Loan Policies of Country Banks as Influenced by
Types of Investment Holdings," published in Agricultural Finance Review.
(19)
November, 1938, \7'olume I, Number 2.
The results of this study may
be indicated at least for our purposes, by a discussion of the following
(20)
table.
18
19
20
Ibid., p. 129
Agricultural Finance Review, November, 1938» Vol. I, No. 2, p. 20
Ibid., p* 2ljr_
22
PERCENTAGES REALIZED, OR PRESUMABLY REALIZABLE,
AS OF THE LAST OF JUNE 1932, FROM INVESTMENTS
MADE IN 1929 IN CORPORATE SECURITIES OF VARIOUS
EATINGS AND MATURITIES
1929 ratings _________ Maturities of Securities _____
of securities 1929-30 1931-32 1933-31*- 1934-39 19lT0^9
Percent
Percent
Grade 1
101
101
86
90
95
87
93
Grade 2
101
101
95
76
7k
60
Qb
Grade 3
102
100
73
75
63
51
77
Grade Ij.
96
89
57
61
36
38
63
Grade 3
100
65
59
J+0
30
26
53
Average of
all grades
100
91
lb
68
60
52
Percent
Percent
Average
of all
1950- maturi­
ties
Percent Percent
Percent
The following quotation from the article should be sufficient to make clear
the meaning of the figures:
"It was the general plan of the study to determine how investments
in various classes of securities fared during the period 1929 to
I933 . The data cover 5 rating classes and 6 maturity classes of
securities, or a total of 30 rating-maturity classes. Each of
these classes is represented by from 10 to 13 securities, and in
most classes there is a fairly close approach to equal represen­
tation of railroad, utility, and industrial securities. The ratings
used were those assigned in 1929 by one of the principal commercial
rating agencies, and once a bond was placed in a given rating class
it was continued there regardless of any changes that may have been
made in its rating after 1929. For reasons of policy neither the
name of this agency nor its rating symbols are revealed. Instead,
the most highly rated securities are designated grade 1 securities,
and securities or lower ratings are given correspondingly lower
designations.
The above table shows the positions, as of the last of June
1932, of investments made during 1929 in securities of various
ratings and maturities. The values given in the table refer to
the percentages of the amounts originally invested that had been
realized through collections or redemptions by the last of June
1932 or that presumably could be realized from sale of the unre­
deemed securities at the market prices prevailing at that time.
For example, all of the securities in grades 1, 2, and 3 that
matured during 1929 and 1930 had been paid by the last of June
1932, or refunded on terms that permitted the holder to receive
cash, payment; and the amounts received or receivable exceeded
slightly the market values of the securities in 1929, since the
securities were slightly below par at this earlier date. Rela­
tively few of the securities maturing after 1932, however, had
been paid or redeemed by the middle of 1932, hence the positions
of investments in such securities were governed mainly by the
prices quoted in 1932. (21)
This study indicates that there is a fundamental relationship between
the quality and the maturity of the bond on the one hand and the price quo­
tations on the other.
There are two objections to the results.
The first
is that the study is not inclusive enough, covering only I4.OO securities and
the second is that the decline shown covers a period from 1929-1932.
This
second objection is made from the standpoint of the bank management and may
be looked at in the following light.
The bank's management is interested
only in the amount of decline in bond prices which might occur before the
management could take effective action in realizing cash by the sale of
some of its bonds.
It is true that bank management considers its bond port­
folio much more often than once every four years.
Many institutions, even
though in the country bank class, revalue their bond portfolio and consider
it at board of director's meeting at least once a month.
Such banks would
be interested in knowing the maximum amount of potential decline which might
occur in one month or in consecutive months.
Although complete action might
not be effected for a number of months it would seem that the longest period
of time in which a bank management would be interested would be one year and
not four years.
One year would appear to be long enough for any bank to
carry out completely the most drastic liquidation of bonds from its portfolio
21
Ibid., p. 23.
21+
assuming the bonds to be at all marketable.
The objection is therefore,
that suoh a long range price study is of slight practical use as an instrument of bond policy determination.
A further definite contribution to the solution of the problem of the
propeifsize and composition of a bankfs bond portfolio has been made by
Laurence R. Lunden, Editor of Financial and Investment Review, School of
Business Administration, University of Minnesota.
Lunden is particularly
interested in the adequacy of reserves of Minnesota state banks to absorb
bond losses.
The problem had been discussed at bond conferences held
throughout the state by the Banking Division but "no single figure was used
(22)
to express the margin of protection that existed in an individual bank."
He further states:
"In the course of a conversation with Mr. R. M. Plaister, manager
of the bank supervisory department of Moody*s Investor’s Service
in Chicago, a suggestion was made that a ratio be worked out
showing the adequacy of the "cushion" available for absorbing
depreciation in what was termed the "net risk bond account."
The present study makes use of such a ratio. Acknowledgement
is, therefore, made to Mr. Plaister for his initial suggestion
and his subsequent contributions in this field." (23)
As already pointed out Lunden was interested in a statistical study
of the adequacy of reserves in Minnesota state banks in the event of a
falling bond market.
H
is important to outline the general steps in­
volved in such a statistical study.
The object is to find the relation­
ship between the "cushion" and the "net risk bond account."
First, the
capital stock account must be held inviolate to avoid impairment.
Second
is the calculation of the "cushion" available to absorb bond depreciation.
This "cushion" is the sum of surplus, undivided profits, reserves for
22
23
Financial and Investment Review, December 193&, Vol. V, No. 1+, p. 1
Ibid., pT"~l
25
contingencies or losses and the amount of appreciation of the earning assets
ahove book values.
Third, is the allocation of the proper proportion of the
"cushion" to the bond account.
doing this.
There are at least two possible methods of
One may be called the residual method and the other the pro­
portional method.
The residual method deducts an arbitrary percentage of
loans, say 10$,5$ or the 3*3$ suggested by Wooster because it represented
the maximum loss on loans and discounts historically, from the "cushion**.
The remainder of the "cushion** is available to absorb band market losses.
The proportional method allocates the total "cushion" according to the pro­
portion each type of earning asset bears to total earning assets.
is the determination of the "net risk bond portfolio."
Fourth,
This is accomplished
by deducting from the total bond account, those bonds which for practical
purposes are riskless.
Without the aid of a comprehensive statistical study
of bond price declines and changes in bond quality Lunden arrives at his
riskless bonds in the following manner.
"The elements of strength of government securities maturing within
five years justify in the minds of most bankers the classification
of such securities as "riskless." True, government bonds would
suffer if short-term money rates were to stiffen appreciably.
However, the nearness to maturity would preclude the possibility
of depreciation over an extended period. With equal validity,
we can include in this classification certain corporation bonds,
as well as state and municipal, that are rated Aaa, Aa or A and
mature within five years." (2 6 )
It can now easily be seen that the "net risk bond account" is found
by deducting from the total bond account all U. S. government obligations
maturing within five years and all corporate and other bonds rated A or
2i*
Ibid., p. 2
26
better.
Lunden states that considerable disagreement exists as to whether
or not A rated bonds may be considered ’’riskless" even though they mature
within five years*
The results of this dissertation will show that they
are not "riskless" in either market or quality features.
Lunden, in a later issue of Financial and Investment Review presents
“
(25)
a tabulation of the calculations necessary to find the "risk ratio."
LUNDEN S CALCULATION OF THE "RISK RATIO"
Schedule A
Surplus
Undivided profits
Reserves
(appreciation)
Bond
(depreciation)
$ 50*000
10,000
25,000
140,000*
Gross cushion
Less 5 percent book value of loans
and discounts
125,000
Cushion for bonds
105,000
*
20,000
Appreciation in this instance.
Schedule B
Total bonds
U. S. Bonds due in 5 years 12,500
Other bonds rated Aa or Aaa
due
in 5 years
none
Net risk bond account
$320,000
12,500
.
507*500
Ratio cushion for bonds tonet risk bondaccount
3U#1b%
The real meaning of the "risk ratio" as calculated above is relatively
simple.
It means that the losses on bonds may become as great as 3U*lU/^
the "net risk bond account" before the capital of the bank will be impaired.
25
Financial and Investment Review, Oct. 1937, Vol. VI, No. 2, p. 1.
27
Such a concept used as a bank management tool is very valuable.
It gives an
estimate of how much the bond account can decline before the bank gets into
fundamental difficulty.
The larger the "risk ratio” the greater the loss
absorbing power of the bank.
The smaller the "risk ratio” the smaller the
loss absorbing power of the bank.
If the “risk ratio” of a bank is 10$ then
a 10 $ decline in the price of its bonds would wipe out all equity except the
capital stock.
bank with a
The same 10$ decline in the market price of the bonds of the
"risk ratio” would not be so serious.
there are two ways to increase the "risk ratio.”
It is evident that
One way is to increase the
"cushion” which is difficult to do in a short period because the "cushion”
is only built up by yearly accretions of profits.
The second way is to
decrease the size of the "net risk bond account•"
This is more readily ac­
complished in a short period of time.
The chief flaw in the method outlined above is that although it tells
us the amount the bonds can go down in price before the capital is impaired
it does not tell us if there is any probability that the bonds held will go
down by the amount of the "risk ratio."
Lunden’s method is therefore not
similar to those of Ostrolenk and Massie, Wilkinson, and Wooster,
Let us
suppose two banks with the same "risk ratio". These two banks have the
same loss absorbing power but it is plain that one bank may be holding bonds
which may be more subject to decline in price than the bonds of the other
bank.
The first bank's bonds may be of less quality and of longer maturity,
both of which characteristics will make for a greater vulernability in
times of general bond market weakness.
It has been shown above what the
28
efforts in the past have been to measure
the maximum price declines in
different types ©f bonds so as to have a standard for judging the risk of
future decline under the most adverse conditions.
It is the aim of this
dissertation to measure the maximum amounts of declines in corporate bond
prices by ratings and maturities.
Such measures while not in any sense
being final forecasts of the future declines in bond prices will serve as
a guide t© intelligent bank management by indicating what has happened to
bond prices under the worst possible conditions in the past.
Knowing the
figures of maximum percent decline in the past, a "risk ratio” of a some­
what different sort can be calculated following the general methods of
Lunden.
The most successful attempt to determine the maximum decline
in
bond prices has been done by the Research Department of Moody's Investors
Service under the direction of Mr. Donald Woodward.
The study however has
not been completed and the results so far have not been published except
partially in Moody's "Bond Survey," a weekly advisory publication.
The
study includes all bonds of the different ratings segregated by certain
maturity groupings.
The period covered was from 1919 to 1937 inclusive.
The task of checking prices which were taken quarterly for each bond and
the task of confutation were enormous.
As stated above the investigation
has not been conpleted for all maturity and rating groups but the results
now completed were made available for use in this dissertation.
A summary of Moody's Investors Service's research on bond price
fluctuations is given in the following table:
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(Aa, A AND Baa 30 YEAR MATURITY)
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The statistical methods involved in this study are best described as
follows:
"We obtain the yield figures on each rating and maturity of securities
as of the end of each quarter of the year. We know from our study
what the high point of the yield for each class was and the differ­
ence between the two figures is the maximum risk of decline (in
price; or rise in terms of yields) in terms of experience since
the World War. We know also the maximum decline (in price; or
rise in terms of yields) in any twelve months since the War and
so show in our tables the number of years required for securities
in each classification to reach the low point from the levels
prevailing at any given time* You may remember that in calcula­
ting the present yield for each classification of securities we
obtain yields on all securities of that classification and elim­
inate by observation those which do not seem representative of
the market; prior to that step of course we eliminate those se­
curities presumably affected by call, convertibility and other
special factors." (26)
The above of course must not be taken as a complete exposition of
the methods employed but as a summary of some of the more important steps.
One salient point of methodology should be noted here because it is dif­
ferent from that presented herein.
The Moody investigation proceeded
from the individual bond prices in the class.
These prices were used for
the purpose of obtaining yields on the individual bonds.
Then these yields
were averaged as described above to get an average yield for the class. The
differences between the yields, between high and low for the whole period
and yearly were obtained.
In finding the price change in points a coupon
rate was assumed (in the table it is a
coupon rate that is assumed) and
the price change found by checking a bond yield book.
This is a flexible method and has certain advantages, e.g., yields in
different groups can be more readily compared than prices because the dif26
Letter dated December H,1939 to the author from Mr. Donald Woodward,
Moody's Investors Service, New York City
32
ferences in coupons which make for differences in prices have been eliminated
by converting to a yield basis.
Also, it may be claimed that a grouping
having a large proportion of high coupons would move differently than if it
had a preponderance of low coupon issues.
But this, it is believed, does
not eliminate differences in price change which might result if the bonds
studied had in general a different set of coupons.
The price changes ob­
tained by averaging the yields and then reconverting to prices does not
eliminate the fact that the original prico changed were not only affected
by quality and maturity but by the size of the average coupon.
Moreover,
there is a greater departure from the original individual prices by the
method of assuming a certain coupon rate as representative of the market
prevailing at the time of the calculation of the "risk ratio".
Although
the method employed by Moody’s can be criticized as above.it is probably
impossible or at least very difficult indeed to eliminate the underlying
and inherent obstacle which is involved.
To make this more clear we
should realize that so far as coupon rates are concerned the character of
bonds traded changes (radically sometimes) over a period,of years.
Before
the recovery period in bond prices set in after the middle of 1932 the
average coupon on bonds was undoubtedly higher than prevailing, say in
1939 after many bonds had been refunded at much lower coupons.
It is logi­
cal to expect that if we consider the average coupon alone a market in
which low coupons prevail will act differently from one in which high
coupons are the rule.
Therefore if we use figures of the maximum decline
in bond prices of the past as a forecast of the worst that could happen
in the future we are overlooking the influence in the effect of differences
33
in average coupons outstanding in the past and the present markets.
This
cannot be overcome by averaging prices of bonds directly but such a method
has been followed in this dissertation because such a method stays closer
to the original figures and does not involve a step into the complicated
field of mathematical yields and the assumption of an average coupon (say
b%) for the current bond market which only introduces an added source of
error.
Because the Moody figures have not been completed for all maturities
and all rating class (however, Moody's figures were sufficiently complete
to permit the practical use of their results by interpolating for the un­
finished classes) it was thought best for completeness to undertake a separ­
ate statistical study to determine the maximum decline in bond prices.
The
results obtained are an important part of this investigation.
So far the ability of the ratings to measure properly the quality of
bonds has been taken for granted.
The authors discussed have accepted the
ratings as the basis of their quality classification.
However, the
adequacy of the ratings themselves must be examined if they are to be ac­
cepted as the foundation of a study of the price declines of bonds.
It
is necessary to have a graded classificatory system of quality for a
statistical study because it is generally accepted that quality and price
are related, i.e., that the lower the quality.of the bond, the lower the
price of the bond.
It is also generally held that lower grade bonds fluc­
tuate over time in a different way than do higher quality obligations.
It
is true that some other method of quality grouping could be devised besides
that of the ratings.
For example, a statistical standard of the number of
3k
times interest had been earned could be set up but the decision as to how
many times interest would have to be earned to permit the bond to be
classed as high grade, medium grade or speculative would be arbitrary and
based on the personal opinion of the inventor of the standard.
Likewise
the ratings themselves are determined through the exercise of the personal
opinion of the rating agency itself.
Nevertheless the ratings are the
expert personal opinion of a group specialized in the field of investments.
Moreover, an attempt to set up new standards to substitute for the ratings
would lead into a much too broad subject which would confuse and not aid
the objectives and purposes of our subject of investigation.
Not only must we examine the adequacy of the ratings for the reasons
advanced above, but there appears to be a quality risk as well as a market
risk to banks which comes from the change in quality reflected by the
rating changes.
Stated somewhat differently, over a period of time a bank
must not only expect to suffer market declines in its bonds but to suffer
declines in quality which stepping down in quality will heighten market
risk.
The decline in quality over the longer period which may confidently
be expected in a portion of any group of bonds (see Chapter V and Appendices
C and D) may lead to bankruptcies and other violations of the bond contract
making for a loss to the bank.
This is a quality risk which every bondholder
undertakes.
Although the arguments advanced above are adequate reason for ex­
amining the validity of the ratings as measures of quality the attitude
here taken is that for bank management purposes over the longer period the
changes in quality risk may be overlooked in the sense that the market
35
risk at any one time will include this quality risk.
If the market decline
has been measured for each rating over a specified period, say the period of
maximum decline, the loss during the period to the bank is the amount of de­
cline thus indicated.
If the rating falls in the meantime there is obviously
a new market loss figure applicable to the bonds which have fhllen in quality.
This new market loss figure measures the worst that has happened to the rating
group in market decline.
The bank management suffers during the specified
period only by the amount of decline in the price because it is not the ulti­
mate payment at maturity that is vital in this case but rather the amount of
proceeds in cash from the sale of the bonds during the period.
made most clear by answering the question.
"What is the loss of principal
in short term, say a year, resulting from a default?"
finitely seem to be:
The idea is
The answer would de­
wThe amount by which the market has declined in conse­
quence of the default and not what eventually may be paid off on the defaulted
security."
The amounts of maximum declines show the greatest loss which would
have been suffered in the past.
This is shown by ratings.
To apply the per­
centages of maximum bond price decline given in Chapter IV to a bond account,
it Is necessary for bank management to have the latest ratings on the bank*s
bond portfolio in order that the losses from changes in quality will reflect
themselves in the changed market percent figure.
This matter of quality v. market risk will be discussed later in con­
nection with the statistical methods employed in the study.
Studies had been made of the efficacy of bond ratings.
most important is that of Gilbert Harold called
Probably the
Bond Ratings as an
36
(27)
Investment Guide*
nection with ratings.
Harold has covered a broad range of questions in con­
This broad range of questions includes the history of
the rating system; the use of the ratings* the basis of the ratings; ratings
and market action; ratings and yields; and ratings and defaults.'
Many of
these questions are interesting but of no direct purpose in so far as this
dissertation is concerned.
The most vital question in which we are interested
is that of the validity and durability of the ratings.
Harold in Chapter twelve called "Hating Changes."
This is covered by
Harold makes a statistical
study of 363 issues tabulating the ratings shown between July 15, 1929 and
July 15, 1935•
He covers both Fitch and Moody's ratings.
Although Harold
covers more than one rating service it is readily apparent that his study
is not complete because it is based on a sample and covers only one period
of time.
The results of rating which is presented in this dissertation will
cover all corporate bonds rated Aaa, Aa, and Baa by Moody's Investors Service
since 1919*
It should be apparent that the results of this study will be
more reliable because they are not based on a sample and because they are
taken from 1919 down to recent years.
Harold comes to a conclusion which is only partly confirmed by our
study of the ratings.
This conclusion concerns the efficiency of the
ratings to protect the investor against market loss.
"Looking at the evidence from the point of view of market action
it is clear that in terms of averages, the ratings operate quite
effectively to protect the investor against loss, even over a
period longer than should be contemplated by the investor
27
Harold Gilbert, Bond Eatings as an Investment Guide, Ronald Press
Co. 1938
37
without a reappraisal of the status of his investments. The
record is not perfect even in terms of averages but it is
certainly beyond reasonable oriticism.,, (28)
In connection with quality changes which were so drastic that defaults
were involved, Harold states the following.
"Regarding defaults, it has been found that the ratings are
fairly good indicators of the probability of default. The
record during the six tempestuous years of the present
study does not reveal a perfect score but considering the
circumstances the rating agencies did remarkably well*.**
...... To foresee it (defaults) some years in advance is
much more an achievement and on the whole, it must be
admitted that even on this score the rating agencies did
remarkably well*,T (29)
Gilbert Harold cites an interesting use of the ratings for testing the
(30)
merits of bond portfolios as devised by Gustav Osterhus.
The object
of his system is to weigh the quality of bank's portfolios in terms of
one figure basing the computation on the ratings. Osterhus was with
the Federal Reserve Bank in Hew York and his system was not only used
by the Hew York bank but also by otherFederal
system the bond ratings, aspublished
by
Reservebanks.
In his
therecognized agencies are
accepted as the final authority as to the quality of the portfolio.
The whole system is one of averaging the quality ratings of the bonds
held.
Certain desirability weights are applied to the ratings and these
desirability weights are multiplied times the percentage of the total
which the particularly rated bonds represent.
28
29
30
The results obtained are
Ibid., p. 216
Ibod., p. 222
Gustav Osterhus, "Flaw Tester for Bond Lists," American Banker*s
Association Journal, Vol. 29, Ho. 2, August 1933 / P* 68
38
(31 ,)
based on both of the two following illustrations:
EXAMPLE OF APPLICATION OF DESIRABILITY WEIGHTS TO HYPOTHETICAL PORTFOLIOS
List A
Rating
Amount
Held
A*
AB*
B-
$50Of,Q00
3 00,000
100,000
100,000
Percentage
of Total
50
30
10
10
Desirability
Weight
Index
100
90
80
10
Index of Quality
5 0 .0
2 7 .0
g.O
1 .0
sS.6
List B
Rating
Amount
Held
M
$500,000
100,000
100,000
300,000
AB+
B-
Percentage
of Total
50
10
10
30
Desirability
Weight
Index
100
90
SO
10
Index of Quality
5 0 .0
9.0
S.O
3.0
7 0 .0
This system seems to be about the first one to apply ratings tc bank's
bond portfolios in an effort to aid management and bank examiners.
It does
not, however, carry the step further to the point of applying a test of the
risk of market de&line attached to the various ratings.
This refinement,
i.e., the determination historically of the maximum decline in bond prices
by ratings has not been completed by any of the authors cited with the ex­
ception of the study now underway by the research department of Moody's
Investors Service.
Melchior Palyi in his study "Bank Portfolios and the Control of the
Capital Market" has discussed some of the more interesting bank bond inGilbert Harold, Bond Ratings as an Investment Guide, p. 162.
39
vestment problems as related to bank supervision predicated on investment
(32)
ratings,
Palyi is critical of the ratings because Palyi’s study is based
on a relatively small sample and because he is interested more in the social
effects than in the management policies founded on the use of ratings.
further comment on his investigation will be made here.
Wo
Such a brief comment
on this piece of work does not do it justice but because it is an important
contribution in this field it has been mentioned here.
The review of the literature in the field of the problem should have
served to make more clear the nature and difficulties of ascertaining the
proper size and composition of the bank’s bond portfolio and to emphasize
the practical importance of the problem from the standpoint of bank manage­
ment bond policy.
The problem of this dissertation is:
first, to determine
statistically the maximum decline in the market price of bonds by rating
(quality) and by maturity using the period since 1919; second, to provide
a series of methods or suggestions through which these historical maximum
risks may be related to the loss absorbing power of an individual bank so
that bank management may have a policy tool to aid it in setting the total
size and, to a degree, the composition of the bank’s bond portfolio; and
third to examine the validity and durability of the ratings in order to
validate the price study of maximum declines which is itself made by rating
groups*
The solution of these problems does not involve a forecast of fu­
ture bond prices*
It is descriptive and historical bringing to the banker’s
attention the results of the past.
32
The banker by using the results may
Melchior Palyi, "Bank Portfolios and the Control of the Capital Market,”
The Journal of Business of the University of Chicago, Vol. XI, Wo. 1
January, 193$
"
ko
mate a more accurate estimate of the loss which his "bond portfolio could
incur if the worst which happened in the past occurs again in the future.
TJsing the suggestions made later he may relate this maximum past loss to
his bankfs loss absorbing power.
of his present bond portfolio.
of the solution of the problem.
mechanical.
Then he may decide upon the desirability
Such is the recommended use of the results
The results are informational and not
They do not exclude the exercise of judgment by the banker.
Rather, they are tools to aid him in exercising his judgment.
41
Chapter III
MATERIALS AM) METHODS
Because of the physical impossibility of taking all corporate bond
prices from 1919 to 1937* a method was devised to determine the period of
greatest bond market decline by the use of index numbers.
Various index
numbers were taken monthly and their differences calculated monthly.
In
this way the maximum monthly decline between 1919 and 1937 "was found for
each different index number.
Using the same index numbers, figures of
total consecutive monthly declines were found by adding together all the
consecutive decreases in the monthly indexes.
The maximum consecutive
monthly decline was then ascertained by an examination of the figures over
the period 1919-1937*
were found.
Next, the yearly increases or decreases by months
From these figures the maximum yearly decline based on monthly
indexes was determined.
The index numbers, the monthly differences, the
total consecutive monthly declines, and the yearly changes for all the
index numbers used may be found in Appendix A.
Not only are the maximum
consecutive and maximum yearly declines discovered but also the second
largest declines are determined.
The purpose of the above is to locate in time, the greatest amount
of bond price decline generally.
"When such a period of time has been
deduced from the data, we may then proceed to an analysis of individual
bond price changes during this period.
The bond price index numbers selected were those that were arrived
at by averaging bond prices and not those which are calculated with a
base year and the consequent price relatives.
This was done in order to
avoid bias in a calculation of the monthly differences.
Averages of thi
type selected were:
Average Prices of all Domestic Bonds Listed on the New York Stock
Exchange taken for the Period 1925-1938 Monthly
Dow Jones Bond Index, 4o Bonds taken Monthly for the Period 1915“
through July, 1938
Moody’s Bond Yield Averages, 120 Domestic Corporation Bonds taken
from 1919-1938
Moody s Bond Yield Averages for Aaa Domestic Corporation Bonds
for the same Period
Moody’s Bond Yield Averages for Aa Domestic Corporation Bonds
for the same Period
Moody's Bond Yield Averages for A Domestic Corporation Bonds
for the same Period
Moody’s Bond Yield Averages for Baa Domestic Corporation Bonds
taken for the same Period.
Not only were the bond indexes mentioned above used to determine the
period of time in which this special detailed study of bond price de­
clines was to be made but the periods of time shown by Moody's Investors
Service detailed study which was discussed in Chapter II were considered
A preliminary study was made of the proper way to select the indi­
vidual bonds to be used in a detailed market study.
Only bonds rated
Baa or better were to be given detailed classification while all other
bonds of quality less than Baa and not rated were to be grouped in one
"over all” classification called miscellaneous.
In Chapter II reasons
have been given for the adoption of the ratings as indicators of quality
With the study of the validity of the ratings, the use of the ratings as
a classificatory device will be shown to be satisfactory.
No detailed classification of the ratings below the Baa level
U3
have been proposed or used for two reasons.
In the first place, it is not
believed that banks, as a matter of general policy, should buy bonds in
which the speculative element is uppermost.
According to the Moody*s
ManuoLs the Ba rated bonds are sgp^&ealative and the Baa bonds are in the
investment class.
For the sake of completeness the Baa rating definition
and the Ba rating definition are given as follows:
"Bonds carrying the Baa rating comprise that large group of
investments which are neither very good nor very bad. In
this classification some speculative elements exist. The
extent and stability of income and security may be satis­
factory but certainly not noteworthy.
Bonds carrying the Ba rating generally have some ele­
ments of uncertainty. Investment characteristics are not
entirely absent but speculative elements begin to dominate."(l)
It is plain from the above that there is no sharp division between
the Baa and the Ba rating but there is an important difference between
the two definitions of the two ratings*
In the Baa definition it is
admitted that some speculative elements exist.
On the other hand,in
the Ba rating definition, it states that speculative elements begin to
dominate.
It would seem here that if a dividing line can be drawn
between investment and speculative rating, it would be drawn between
the Baa and the Ba rating groups*
In the second place no rating groups below Baa have been examined
in detail because of the general attitude of the examining authorities
especially the Cbnptroller of the Currency toward the lower rated bonds
as National Bank investments.
(1)
This attitude of the Comptroller of the
Moody*s Industrial Manual for 1939* P* vi
kk
Currency becomes clear if we cite some of the contents of his regulation
which became effective on July 1, 1938*
This regulation governed not only
the National Banks but under the Federal Reserve Bank it is effective upon
all member banks.
Discussing the bonds which National Banks are permitted
to buy the Comptroller says in Section 2, paragraph C of the regulation:
"The purchase of investment securities in which the investment
characteristics are distinctly or predominantly speculative or
the purchase of securities which are in default either as to
principal or interest is prohibited.11 (2)
The above regulation plus the fact that the Ba bonds and lower may
be classed as speculative did seem to exclude such rated bonds from purchase
by members of the Federal Reserve.
However, this belief is further sub­
stantiated by a more direct statement on the part of the Secretary of the
Treasury, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Direc­
tors of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and the Comptroller of
the Currency, issued on June 27, 1938 in connection with bank examination.
” ....Group 1 securities are marketable obligations in which
the investment characteristics are not distinctly or pre­
dominantly speculative. This group includes general market
obligations in the four highest grades and unrated securities
of equivalent value." (3)
The above should show that the examining authorities look upon the Baa
and higher ratings as satisfactory for bank bond investment.
Moody's ratings were used alone and not in combination with other
ratings in order that they be comparable between the market study and
2
3
ibid., p. vi
Ibid., p. vi
the study of the ratings data which were made available by Moody's
Investors Service for this dissertation.
Also there appeared no reason
for attempting to devise some sort of composite rating by compounding
the ratings of the four major rating agencies.
It appeared such com­
pounding or averaging would involve difficulties not warranted by the more
representative results which might be obtained from, a use of all ratings
rather than one rating agency.
It will be noted from the excerpts given above from the Comptroller's
regulations that marketability is considered a necessary characteristic of
bonds which banks purchase.
In selecting the individual bonds to be in­
cluded in the detailed study, some criteria of marketability had to be
adopted.
What are the criteria of marketability?
Badger and Guthmann
state:
"The marketability of an issue as a general rule, depends upon
its size, whether it is listed, and the reputation of the
issuing company, although the channels through which it was
originally sold must also be considered. A small issue
brought out by a little known banking house and placed among
a narrow group of investors will naturally have a very li­
mited market. A sizeable issue handled by a syndicate of
well-known bankers, on the other hand, will be widely traded
in even if it is not listed." (U)
The above quotation gives valuable general criteria of marketability
but necessarily cannot provide statistical standards of judgment for
marketability.
It is necessary in this study to say statistically what
bonds are marketable and what bonds are not marketable so that the
marketable bonds could be included in the study.
An attempt was made
Ralph h. Badger, Earry G. Guthmann, Investment Principles and Practices, Prentice-Hall, 193^» P« 125
146
to select marketable bonds on the basis of the number of bonds traded yearly.
For example, one arbitrary standard such as ^>60 bond sales a year for each
bond might be set up.
It was found that if such a standard were used, the
sample of bonds would be relatively small.
There was an added difficulty
involved here which was that the volume of transactions could be determined
accurately only for those bonds which were listed on one of the exchanges,
XJo accurate information as to volume of trade was available for over-thecounter markets.
An additional objection to such a criterion is that in
the present bond market, there exists a great degree of marketability for
the highest quality bonds without any great volume of trading.
More speci­
fically, there are relatively few high grade bonds beipg traded in the mar­
ket today but because of the great demand for such quality bonds many in­
vestors would combine to purchase almost any amount that might come on the
market at prices close to the current level.
of present interest rates.
It seems true that marketability is affected
by changes in the public taste for securities.
quality, riskless bonds.
This assumes a continuation
The style at present is high
Styles were different in earlier periods.
If
marketability depends upon style, it is obviously most difficult to set
up statistical criteria based on style.
It can be seen immediately that a listed bond may be no more marketable
than a non-listed bond.
A most outstanding example is that of United States
government obligations which are listed on the hew York Stock Exchange but
which are traded in much greater volume in the over-the-counter markets.
U7
It was therefore decided not to neglect unlisted bonds*
From a practical
standpoint, marketability resolves itself into whether or not you can sell
your bond when you wnat to, at a price reasonably close to the last quota­
tion.
This in turn depends to a large degree, upon the number of people
who are interested in the bonds*
The determinants of how many people are
interested in a particular bond are many, including the public taste at
the moment, the industry, the company’s prospects, etc.
dominant influence is that of the size of the issue.
Probably, the
It is true that even
a very large bond issue may be concentrated in the hands of a few inves­
tors, but this is the exception.
It was assumed, therefore, that the size
of the issue was to be considered the major influence upon marketability.
The exact size selected was arbitrary.
The size chosen was ^5*000,000 par
value and larger.
Those bonds which were five million or larger in size
(5)
and were listed in the May 5* 1931 Fitch Bond Record were studied.
No governmental obligations, direct or indirect, or guaranteed, no
foreign corporation bonds except Canadian and Cuban,nor domestic, muni­
cipal or state bonds are included in the study of individual bond prices.
The study includes only domestic, Canadian, and Cuban corporate bonds of
five million size and over which were listed in the Fitch Bond Record
5
Incidentally an investigation of the relationship of volume of trading
and size of issue was made. The result of this study is that ap­
proximately 80 percent of bonds of five million size or over (as
listed in the Fitch Bond Record) consisting only of domestic, Cana­
dian and Cuban corporate bonds listed on the New York Stock Exchange
and New York Curb, were also traded, at least to the extent of 3&0
bonds per year. The volume of trading was ascertained by checking
the total b@nds traded for the year 1931 ln the Commercial and Financial Chronicle.
hB
"book of May §, 1931.
It is presumed as reasonable that the very fact of listing in the
Fitch Bond Record book is evidence that there is general interest in the
particular bonds.
It is admitted that reliance in this case, must be
placed upon the judgment of the Fitch organization in either including or
excluding bonds.
Their judgment, therefore, has influenced the sample of
bonds which has been picked.
Quotations on the bonds were obtained from the issue of Fitch Bond
Record books which was closest in time to the first day of each month
beginning May 1931 a*1*! continuing for each month for fourteen months
through June 1932*
Only quotations representing actual transactions or
quotations representing bid prices were used.
Ho asked prices were used
although in the .Appendix containing prices of all bonds for all months
taken the asked prices are recorded and indicated by (a).
do not enter into the computation of the average prices.
The asked prices
The reason for
this is that banks are not assured that they can sell their bonds at or near
an asked price; in fact an asked price really means that somebody else wants
to sell their bonds at the price designated. (They are "asking" that price
for their bonds.)
Inasmuch as prices were not always available for every
bond as of the first day of the month, quotations were taken as close to
the first as possible.
In no event were quotations used which were more
than seven days either side of the first of the month.
The bonds were rated according to the rating which each bond had as of
May 1, 1931.
These ratings were held constant as of May 1, 1931 no changes
49
in rating between then and June 1932 being allowed for.
We wanted to
examine the amount of decline of bonds of specific ratings for a twelve
months* period by months.
It was desired to see how, for example, bonds
rated Aaa at the start of the period would act throughout the period.
method permits us to answer the question:
This
"How did bonds act marketwise by
ratings in the worst twelve months of the bond market since the World War?”
Also, by holding the ratings constant as of the first of the period it is
evident that the market decline for the period was the total loss because
no quality loss, i. e., loss attributable to a reduced rating is present.
In other words
if a reduction does occur, say, in some of the bonds in the
Aaa group during the twelve months* period the extra decline in price cor­
related with the reduced rating is, by holding the Aaa rating on the bond
throughout the period, taken into account in the total market decline of
the Aaa group.
Themarket decline of all bonds retaining the Aaa rating
and the marketdecline of all bonds rated
Aaa at the start of the period
but falling in rating during the period are contained in the figures for
the Aaa group.
This method eliminates, at least over the twelve months*
period, the necessij^r of considering market decline and quality decline
separately.
The averages of market loss are representative of all loss
over the short term (in this case twelve months) including even bankrupt­
cies and other violations of contract because such events are reflected in
the market prices.
If these events are not depressants of the market then
there is no loss resulting from them in the period we are considering.
The selection of maturity classification was necessarily arbitrary but
50
such groupings-.wetfe pickedras, wero believed would allow the study of short
term, medium term, and long term bonds in their price movements in consider­
able
detail*
The maturity groupings used are:
Up to 2 years maturities;
2 years up to 5 years maturities; 5 years up to 10 years maturities; 10 years
up to 20 years maturities; 20 years up to 30 years maturities; and maturities
over 30 years*
The shorter maturities were sub-divided more than the longer
term bo:-'cheeck the theory that bonds due in five years and less with Aa or
better rating are Mriskless.n
This theory will be seen to be invalidated for
periods of greatest strain by the statistical findings presented later.
The
bonds were classified into the above maturity groups by relating each bondfs
own maturity to the date May 1, 1931 because this is the date which begins
the study of prices.
After the recording of quotations for each month for each bond and after
the classifying of the bonds by rating and maturity groups the problem of
averaging presents itself.
Two averages were calculated for the two yearly
periods of May to May 1931—1932 and June to June 1931—2.932.
are the arithmetic mean and the median.
These averages
If other types of averages had been
used there, of course, would have been slightly different answers because of
the different nature of different averages*
3Tor the fourteen months from May
1931 to June 1932, arithmetic means were calculated.
One peculiarity in the averaging must be explained for the sake of com­
pleteness.
In any particular rating— maturity group a specific number of
bonds will be found.
But, each bond does not have quotations for every
51
month for a variety of reasons.
Among such reasons are that no trading took
place in the bond (this is probably the most important reason), that the bond
matured and that the bond was called.
In the shorter high grade groups some
of the issues were paid off, but such is not the case to the same degree for
the other groups.
This may be more clearly brought to mind if it is recalled
that this was a period of intense depression with little refunding and many
defaults.
Even though a particular bond did not have quotations for all the
fourteen months whatever monthM prices it did have were averaged with the
prices of all the other bonds having quotations for those months.
This
might be considered as an influence making for a degree of discontinuity in
the averages.
But because bonds in general were not plentiful in the shorter
maturities and because, therefore, the shorter maturity groups had few bonds
contained therein, it was believed best to use all quotations available and
not eliminate a bond because it did not have prices for all fourteen months.
There is thought to be more error involved in eliminating the non-consecutively quoted bonds than in retaining them in the calculation of the averages.
By retaining them we can truthfully say:
"Here is the average price of all
bonds rated, say, Aaa and maturing in, say, 2 years which could have been
disposed of in the market at around the first of each month during the four­
teen months ’of worst bond market decline since the World War.'1
The declines in points from May to May lS^l-13^2 and June to June 1931“
1932 were found by subtracting the average of the later month from the earlier
month of the prior year.
The monthly declines were found in a similar manner.
The consecutive monthly declines were determined by adding the declines in
52
points which followed one another without being interrupted by a monthly
average rise.
These figures are in dollars (or what are called points in the language
of quotations).
The banker is more vitally interested in the dollars lost
than in any other figure.
However, before these results can be applied to
an individual bank's bond portfolio they must be converted to percentages.
The full reason for this will be evident later when the application of the
results to aid bank management are discussed.
The percentages of yearly
decline for both the arithmetic means and the mediums, the percentages of
monthly declines for the arithmetic means, and the percentages for the con­
secutive monthly declines have been calculated.
All the foregoing describes the material and procedures followed by
the writer himself in carrying out the investigation of bond market risk.
What follows is a description of the materials and methods which were em­
ployed by Mr. Donald Woodworth, Head of Bond Research, Moody's Investors
Service in making the voluminous and enlightening study of the Aaa and Baa
rating groups.
Moody's Investors Service has been so kind as to make
available to the author of this dissertation the materials, methods and
results of this comprehensive study.
In doing this a business corporal ion
organized for private profit has made its stock-in-trade available purely
for the advancement of knowledge in the field of bond investment.
6
The spirit of scientific open-mindedness of the Moody organization was
made plain to the writer when Mr. Russell Leavitt, chief of Economic
Research said, "If there is any way to improve the rating system or if
there is anything fundamentally wrong with it we want to know about it."
The Moody study analyzes the history of bonds by ratings from 1919 to
195^*
The study covers the ratings of domestic corporate bonds and does not
include foreign, municipal, financial nor government bonds; nor does it in­
clude serial maturities or income bonds.
Every domestic corporate bond which
has borne the Aaa and the Baa rating in any year since 1918 is included in
the study.
Results of the same study of Aa bonds are presented in Chapter V
but the detailed figures were not available for inclusion in an appendix.
The study is, therefore, a complete census in every respect.
are results based on a mere sample.
In no case
When the study is completed (the Aaas,
Aas and Baas are now completed and presented herein) for the group more than
20,000 different bond issues will have been examined and their history traced
from either 1919 to date (1938) °r from the year of issue if after 1919 to
1938.
The methods involved are not complicated except in cases of violations
of contract and it is believed the material in the appendix, if examined
(7 )
closely, will show just what work has been done.
Briefly, all corporate
bonds rated Aaa in 1919 were followed in all subsequent years to 1938.
The
changes in ratings, necessarily downward for the Aaas, were recorded by the
number of bonds which sank to each of the lower rating groups.
■which matured or were called in subsequent years were tabulated.
The number
The number
which violated any feature of their contract such as defaulting interest or
principal was determined.
also obtained.
After this had been completed for the 806 corporate bonds
rated Aaa in 1919» &H
7
The cumulated figures for certain groups were
corporate bonds which were rated Aaa in 1920 were used
A complete statement of the meaning of "violation of contract" may be
found in Appendix C, page28ij. under the description of "Interest De­
faulted and Deferred" and "Principal Defaulted."
5k
as the beginning of a similar new study
down through the years.There were
S92 corporate bonds rated Aaa in 1920. This figure includes not only those
bonds rated Aaa in 1919 and still retaining their Aaa rating in 1920 but
all corporate bonds receiving a new Aaa rating.
These Aaa bonds
in 1920
were then traced in every subsequent year to ascertain their rating position
and to see what number violated their contracts.
manner, from 1919 to 193 ^
Every year, in the same
made a base year and from these base years the
quality performance of the bonds by number of issues is analyzed.
study of the Baa rating group was completed by Moodys*.
The figures for
both these investigations are to be found in the Appendix.
(8)
interpreted in a later chapter.
8
A similar
The results are
tfhe data are those of Moody1s Investors Service but the interpretations
are the writerfcA. The responsibility for the interpretations of the
study does not rest therefore on Moodys1*
55
Chapter 11/
RESULTS OF INVESTIGATION OF MARKET DECLINES
OF BONDS BY RATING AND MATURITY
The results of the investigation of greatest market decline in bonds
classified by rating and maturity are best portrayed by a statistical pre­
sentation*
Therefore this chapter consists chiefly of figures in tabulated
form.
It will be remembered that indexes of bond prices including those of
the New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones and Moodys’ (this latter was broken
down into a study of the separate indexes by ratings) were examined in
order to determine the yearly period of greatest decline*
The results are
given below in a series of tables.
New York Stock Exchange Average Price of
Domestic Bonds 1925-1938
Points
Period
Duration
Maximum Monthly Decline
5*71+
Apr. -May 1932
1 month
Second Largest Monthly Decline
5*14-1
Aug.-Sept. 1931
1 month
Maximum Decline by Consecutive
Months
15 »6l
July to Dec.-1931
6 months
Mar. to May-1932
3 months
Second Largest Decline by
Consecutive Months
8* 1+5
Maximum Twelve Months Decline
21.31
May 1931-May 1932
1 year
Second Largest Twelve Months
Decline
20.20
June 1931”June 1932
1 year
Decline Peak to Bottom During
the 'Whole Period 1925-1938
27.70
Dec. 1927-May 1932
(101.27 to 73*57)
1+ years &
5 months
56
Dow Jones
Bond Index 1915-1938
(1+0 bonds monthly)
Points
Date
Duration
Maximum Monthly Decline
8.83
Mar.-Apr* 1931
1 month
Second Largest Monthly Decline
7*18
Sept•-Oct. 1931
1 month
Maximum Decline by Consecutive
Months
19•06
Aug.-Nov. 1937
1+ months
Second Largest Decline by
Consecutive Months
17*76
Aug.-Dec. 1931
5 months
Maximum Twelve Months Decline
39*81
July 1931-July
1932
12 months
June 1931-Cune
1932
12 months
Decline Peak to Bottom during the
Whole Period 1915-1938
i+l+*87
Apr. 1928-June
(86.26 - 1+1*39)
1932
1+ years
2 months
Second Largest Twelve Months
Decline
37*68
Moody*s Bond Yield Averages
120 Domestic Corporation Bonds 1919-1938
Points
Date
Duration
Maximum Monthly Decline*
“H .83
Nov.-Dec. 1931
1 month
Second Largest Monthly Decline*
•+■.69
Mar •-Apr • 193 2
1 month
Maximum Decline by Consecutive
Months
+ 1.39
Apr.-June 1932
3 months
Second Largest Monthly Decline*
by Consecutive Months
+ 1.15
Aug.-Oct. 1931
3 months
Maximum 12 Month's Decline*
+ 2.1+.6
May 1931-May 1932
Second Largest 12 Month's Decline*
9*2.1]1+
June 1931-June
1932
*
1 year
1 year
It will be noticed that the changes are increases but have been labeled
’’D e c l i n e s T h e changes in this and the following tables of the Moody's
Indexes are in yields, not prices. An increase in yield means a decrease
in price. The word decline therefore indicate price declines going with
the yield increases tabulated in the table.
Moody’s Bond Yield Averages
Aaa Domestic Corporation Bonds 1919-1938
Points
Date
Duration
Maximum Monthly Decline
4 .HU
Sept,-Oct. 1931
1 month
Second Largest Monthly Decline
+.38
Nov.-Dec. 1931
1 month
Maximum Decline by Consecutive
Months
4.8H-
Nov. 1919-Ju**© 1920
8 months
Second Largest Monthly Decline by
Consecutive Months
4 .6 3
Aug.-Oct. 1931
3 months
June 1931"June 1932
1 year
May 1931“May 1932
1 year
Maximum Yearly Decline
Second Largest Yearly Decline
41.05
-K99
Moody's Bond Yield Averages
Aa Domestic Corporation Bonds 1919-1938
Points
Date
Duration
Maximum Monthly Decline
4 .6 5
Nov.-Dec. 1931
1 month
Second Largest Monthly Decline
4 .U9
Sept.-Oct. 1931
1 month
Maximum Decline by Consecutive
Months
Second Largest Monthly Decline by
Consecutive Months
4 1 .6H- Apr.-Dec. 1931
+. 75
9 months
Apr.-June 1932
3 months
Maximum Yearly Decline
41.79
Jiiue 1931-June 1932
1 year
Second Largest Yearly Decline
41.70
July 1931 -July 1932
1 year
Moody's Bond Yield Averages
A Domestic Corporation Bonds 1919-1938
Points
Date
Maximum Monthly Decline
4.92
Duration
Apr.-May 1932
1 month
Second Largest Monthly Decline
+.80
Nov,-Dec.
1931
1 month
Maximum Decline by Consecutive
Months
42.06
Aug.-Dec.
1931
5 months
Second Largest Monthly Decline by
Consecutive Months
+1.70
Apr.-June 1932
3 months
Maximum Yearly Decline
+2.75
May 1931“May 1932
1 year
Second Largest Yearly Decline
+2.55
July 1931-July 1932
1 year
Moody's Bond Yield Averages
Baa Domestic Corporation Bonds 1919-193%
Points
Date
Duration
Maximum Monthly Decline
+I .63
Mar.-Apr.
1932
1 month
Second Largest Monthly Decline
+I.U9
Nov.-Dec.
1931
1 month
Maximum Decline by Consecutive Months
+2.80
Apr.-May 1932
2 months
Second Largest Monthly Decline by
Consecutive Months
41.3G
Maximum Yearly Decline
+H-.H-8 May 1931~1'iIay 1932
1 year
Second Largest Yearly Decline
+U*l6
1 year
Aug.-Oct.
1931
June 1931-June 1932
3 months
The above tables are the basis for selecting the period from May 1931
to and including June 1932 as the one during which individual bond prices
were studied.
To support the selection of this period it is pointed out
that all of the indexes except Dow-Jones show either May to May or June to
June 1931-1932 as the period of maximum yearly decline in bond prices.
over, Dow-Jones index shows that June 1931
second largest yearly decline.
period of maximum decline.
More­
June 1932 is the period of
The July 1931 to July 1932 period is the
Despite this the period of second largest decline
(June to June 1931-1932) is only slightly smaller than the period of maximum
decline, being 37*68 points against only 3^.01 for the period of the maximum.
Besides the fact that May to May 1931-1932 and June to June 1931-1932
appeared with only one exception as the periods of maximum decline, the same
months appeared most frequently as the period of second largest decline.
July-July 1931-1932 only appears twice as contender for the period of second
largest maximum decline.
In addition to this the indexes also show that
the low point of the bond market was not in July, but in June 1932.
July bond prices were beginning to rise.
By
Further evidence to support the
selection of the fourteen months period from May 1931 to June 1932 as the
period for the individual bond price study is found in the fact that the
maximum monthly declines and the maximum consecutive monthly declines almost
without exception occur within this period.
To summarize briefly, it is reasonable to expect, on the basis of the
evidence, that a detailed study of bond prices from May 1931 to June 1932
on a monthly basis would give averages indicating not only the maximum
losses a bank would have undergone from its bond portfolio since 1919 in
any one year but also the maximum loss in any one month or any series of
consecutive months.
The price quotations were therefore obtained monthly on all bonds
selected for the period May 1931 to June 1932 inclusive.
The results of this investigation of price quotations are given in the
following pages of statistical tables and charts.
In reading the tables
it should be noticed that all measures of decline are expressed in two ways
first, in points (dollars) and second, in percentages of decline.
The
figures for yearly declines are calculated first as arithmetic means and
second as medians.
The figures for maximum monthly declines are based on
arithmetic means only.
The charts were prepared from data not contained
in the following tables but from figures which may be found in Appendix G.
61
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Misc.
MAXIMUM MONTHLY DECLINES IN POINTS IN CORPORATE BOND PRICES'
BY RATINGS AND MATURITIES DURING THE PERIOD PROM MAY 1931 TO JUNE 1932
(Monthly Arithmetic Mean of Corporate Bonds of five million size and over)
(Ratings as of May 1931)
MATURITIES
1
1—! OJ
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MONTHLY M E M PRICES OP BONDS MATURING TO 2 YEARS
CLASSIFIED BY RATINGS
(MAY 1931-JUNE 1932)
Baa
•Miscellaneous
MONTHLY MEAN PRICES OP BONDS MATURING 2 TO 5 YEARS
CLASSIFIED BY RATINGS
(MAY 1931-JUNE 1932)
68
105
MONTHLY MEAN PRICES OF BONDS MATURING- 5 TO 10 YEARS
CLASSIFIED BY RATINGS
(MAY 1931-JUNE 1932)
■Aaa
Aa
*Baa
Miscellaneous
MONTHLY MEAN PRICES OF BONDS MATURING 10 TO 20 YEARS
CLASSIFIED BY RATINGS
(MAT 1931-JUNE 1932)
Aaa
Aa
Baa
Miscellaneous
1931
1932
70
MONTHLY MEAN PRICES OF BONDS MATURING 20 TO 30 YEARS
CLASSIFIED BY EATINGS
(MAY 1931-JUNE 1932) <
-Aaa
*Aa
-'Baa
-Miscellaneous
2P
MONTHLY MEAN PRICES OP BONDS MATURING 30 YEARS & OVER
CLASSIFIED BY RATINGS
(MAY 1931-JUNE 1932)
Aaa
Aa
Baa
Miscellaneous
1931
1932
72.
MONTHLY MEAN PRICES OP Aaa BONDS
CLASSIFIED BY MATURITY
(MAY 1931 - JUNE 1932)
73
110
105
100
-vUP TO 2 YRS.
■ 2 TO 5 YRS.
•t5 TO 10 YRS.
-.10 TO 20 YRS.
20 TO 30 YRS.
30 YRS. & OYER
MONTHLY MEAN PRICES OP Aa BONDS
CLASSIFIED BY MATURITY
(MAY 1931 - JUNE 1932)
7k
110
100
SO
-UP TO 2 YRS.
-.2 TO 5 YRS.
-.5 TO 10 YRS.
-10 TO 20 YRS.
- 20 TO 30 YRS.
- 70 YRS. AND OVER
MONTHLY MEAN PRICES OP A BONDS
CLASS IP IED BY MATURITY
(MAY 1931 - JUNE 1932)
75
mr
-UP TO 2 YRS.
~2 TO 5 YRS.
-5 TO 10 YRS.
-10 TO 20 YRS.
-20 TO 30 YRS.
-30 YRS. & OVER
55
V,
h*>4-,■”
-v w
-
ir
A
N
D
P
M
M
MONTHLY M E M PRICES OP Baa BONDS
CLASSIFIED BY MATURITY
(MAY 1931 - JUNE 1932)
100
1
1
1
I
)
)
- UP TO 2 YRS.---* 2 TO 5 YRS.
- 5 TO 10 YRS.
- 10 TO 20 YRS.--: 20 TO 30 YRS.
30 YRS. AND OYER
5
35
MONTHLY MEAN PRICES OP MISCELLANEOUS BONUS
CLASSIFIED BY MATURITY
(MAY 1931 - JUNE 1932)
7 UP TO 2 Y R S .
0
- 5 TO 10 Y R S . t
10 TO 20 YRS.
- 20 TO 30 Y RS.
- 30 YRS. & OVER
!0
Chapter V
RESULTS OP BOND RATING STUDY
The results presented inthis chapter are based on the data
on
Moody*s ratings to be found in the Apnendix with the exception of the
a)
figures on Aa bonds presented in the tables herein.
The data in the
Appendix represents such an important and comprehensive investigation
that it is apparent that the results presented in this chapter are not
the only results which can be obtained from a further study of signifi­
cant relationships of the data.
Only those facts of Moody's study are
presented here which support or deny the jusitfication for using Moody's
ratings as has been done in the previous chapter for purposes of quality
classification in the research into bond price declines.
The tables are given in the following pages adjacent to the dis­
cussion of them.
By use of the material in the following tables and the Appendix
the validity and durability of the ratings may be discussed.
The
con­
cepts of validity and durability are intertwined being difficult to
isolate one from the other.
However, validity carries the idea that the
ratings by their gradations indicate gradations of quality.
question form;
Stated in
"Are the ratings valid relative measures of quality?"
This can be answered by determining the relative numbers of Aaa and Baa
bonds which violate their contracts.
If the Aaa rating is to be con­
sidered as measuring higher quality than the Baa rating the bonds in Asa
1
The complete tabulation for the Aa ratings age not yet available al­
though the results were provided by Moody’s Investors Service.
79
rating group must not show so many violations of contract as the bonds in
the Baa rating group.
That the Aaa rated bonds were much better quality from 1930 through
1932 than the Baa bonds is plain from the following figures.
Of all the
bonds rated Aaa in 1930,(885 bonds so rated) none of them defaulted interest
or principal by 1931 » one year later.
Of all bonds rated Aaa in 1931» (735
bonds so rated) there had been no default of principal or interest by 1932,
This period from 1931
1932 is that of greatest bond market reaction and
probably the deepest phase of the depression years coming after 1929*
The
Baa rated bonds, as we may rightfully expect, do not have such a fine
record.
Of all the bonds rated Baa in 193°» (716 bonds so rated) by 1931
one had defaulted interest and eleven principal.
Of all bonds rated Baa
in 1931* (669 bonds so rated) by 1932 five had defaulted interest and
thirty-one principal.
Therefore, for the years chosen we can conclude
that the two ratings indicate a difference in quality.
The durability of the ratings may be tested by answering the following
question,
group?"
"How long do bonds of a specific rating group remain in that
The answer to this question is also an answer to the question of
validity particularly when the relative violations of contracts of the var­
ious ratings are considered.
We therefore, shall be discussing both
validity and durability of the ratings in what follows.
In 1930> 885 bonds were rated Aaa by Moodys*.
Of these by 1931> 701
were still rated Aaa; 21 had matured and been paid off; and 27 had been
called*
This means that of the 885 bonds rated Aaa in 1930* 775 were of
the same rating or just as good or better being in cash received from call
or maturity.
For this one year period, 1930 to 1931* the Aaa rated bonds
were 3^*6% durable i.e. 87*6% of the Aaa bonds in 1930 were still of the
same quality in 1931-
In 1931* 735 bonds were rated Aaa by Moodys1.
Of
these, in 1932, I|23 were still rated Aaa; 29 had matured and been paid off;
and if. had been called.
This means that of the 735 bonds rated Aaa in 1931*
L&6 were of the same rating or just as good or better being in cash received
from call or maturity.
For this one year period, 1931 to 1932, the Aaa
rated bonds were 62.0% durable i.e. 62*0% of the Aaa bonds in 1931 were
still of the same quality in 1932.
This greater decline in the number of
bonds rated Aaa in the 1931-1932 period is not because of greater viola­
tions of contract, but rather because of a greater lowering of the Aaa
bonds to Aa , A etc.
The above facts of validity (relative violations of contract in Aaa
and Baa) support the use of the ratings as a classificatory device in the
1931-1932 period.
The facts of durability above do not invalidate the use
of the ratings for classifying bond quality.
In the market study the rating
were fixed as of the beginning of the period and not changed throughout the
period.
Therefore, the greater the number of, say, Aaa bonds which fell in
rating during the period, the more the conservative bias in the market study
This is true because the figures of market decline measure the price de­
cline of bonds which fell from Aaa group during the period to Aa, A and even
81
Baa.
The prices on the "bonds which fell in rating during the year are re­
tained with the figures on the "bonds which remained Aaa.
If the fall in
(2)
rating is entirely representative of a fall in “true” quality
and if the
percentage reduction in the Aaa "bonds from I93I-I932 is greater than normal
(taken as the period of the rating study 1919 to 1937) then there is a con­
servative "bias in applying the ratings to the market study of this period.
It is a conservative "bias "because later rating groups do not change down­
ward so much.
In a less involved manner we may say that the 1931-1932
period was not only the time of maximum decline in the prices of bonds but
was also that of the greatest "mortalityw in the ratings.
This conclusion
is supported not only by the facts just discussed but also by the data in
the following tables and Appendices C and D.
The facts are similar for the Baa group as for the Aaa group.
1930* 716 bonds were rated Baa.
In
Of these, 50*+ were still rated Baa or higher
in 19311 21 had matured and been paid; and 20 had been called.
This means
that of the 716 bonds rated Baa in 1930, 5^5 were of the same rating or
better in 1931*
^or this period 1930-1931 the Baa rated bonds were 76*1$
durable, i.e., ? 6 ;l$ of the Baa T?onds in 1930 were still Baa or better in
1931.
In 1931» 669 bonds were rated Baa.
Of these, 329 were still rated
Baa Or higher in 1932; 12 had matured and been paid; and h had been called.
This means that of the 669 bonds rated Baa in 1931* 3^5 were of the same
rating or better in 1932.
2
For this period 193I-I932 the Baa bonds were 51*6$
It is doubtful in this case if this is true. The pessimistic spirit of
the 1931-1932 period undoubtedly induced Moodys 1 to take a generally
more conservative attitude.
8a
durable, i.e.,
1932.
of the Baa bonds in 1931 were still Baa or better in
As stated above in connection with the Aaa bonds, this decline in
quality is allowed for in the market study by holding the ratings constant
throughout the period of the study.
Prices of the bonds which declined in
rating were thereby retained in the price averages and therefore reflect in
themselves the decline in quality occurring in 1931 to 1932.
As maintained
previously the averages of price decline measure the risk of the market and
the risk of quality decline.
The validity of the ratings as standards
brought
out by the
of relative quality is further
additional evidence of thegreater ’’mortality1' ofthe Baa
ratings over the Aaa ratings from 1931 ^0 1932*
The Aaa rating was 62.0$
durable
(mortality
of the rating was 38.0/£) while the Baa rating was^1*6%
durable
(mortality
of the rating was J4.8.iq^) •A similar comparison is possi­
ble for the 1930-1931 period.
If the ratings are good standards of relative
quality we would expect logically that the lower ratings would not last so
long as the higher ratings.
The higher the quality of a bond the more dras­
tic must be the economic events which will jar it from its position.
test of quality is action under adversity.
The
The figures indicate that under
adversity (1930-31 and 1931*32) the Aaa rating as a rating stood up better
than the Baa rating as a rating class.
So far the discussion has been concerned with the action of the ratings
around the time of the market study.
We are also interested in the validity
and durability of the ratings over a long period of time.
The results over
the long period will help either to deny or confirm the use of the ratings
as a means of quality classification.
long periods?”
,fDo the ratings measure quality over
83
It must not be expected that ratings can be perfect measures of
quality over a long period.
They admittedly are not good standards over
a fifteen or twenty year period.
The statistical evidence for this may be
found in the Appendix by examining the record down through the years of all
bonds rated Aaa and Baa in 1919*
Furthermore, the quality of bonds as measured by the ratings is not
absolute but is rather relative.
If the relative performance of the
ratings is found to be satisfactory the use of the ratings as standards
of quality classification is largely vindicated.
Let us now examine the long term relative action of the three ratings,
Aaa, Aa and Baa for which data are available.
”T/Vhat is the average dura­
bility of each of these rating groups over the period from 1919 to 19^6?u
Let us refer to the table DURABILITY OF Aaa, Aa AND Baa RATINGS FOR TWO
YEAR AND FIVE YEAR PERIODS.
follows:
two years.
The results in this table were obtained as
For example, all Aaa bonds so rated in 1919 were followed for
The percentage of durability was then calculated by dividing
the number of bonds rated Aaa or paid two years after 1919 by the number of
bonds rated Aaa in 1919*
The percentage of durability was then calculated
for 1920 by taking the number of bonds rated Aaa in 1920 as the base.
Simi­
lar computations were made for each year following down through 1931*
Ibe
same methods were employed to obtain the percentage of durability for the
five year figures.
After each year’s percentage figure for the two year
study had been calculated an average was taken to give a generalized measure
8U
DURABILITY OF Aaa, Aa AND Baa RATINGS
FOR TWO YEAR AND FIVE YEAR PERIODS
(Moody’s Ratings)
$ that had Same Rating, better
or paid
Rated
in
Aaa
1919
9 1 .2
1920
2 yrs, later
Aa
that had Same Rating, better
or paid
5 yrs, later
Aa
Baa
Aaa
.81.4
8 0 .0
8 S .3
8 3 .5
8 6 .7
92.3
89.4
8 8 .9
84.6
82. 4
8O .7
1921
94.2
92*7
9 1 .5
86.2
84.0
78.8
1922
93.3
69*7
7 9 .4
86.6
84.0
75.4
1923
8 8 .7
84.0
6 8 .3
87.6
8 1 .5
71.2
1924
9 1 .0
8 7 .8
78.5
89.0
84.6
76.4
1925
96.6
91*7
84.4
95.0
86 .7
73.6
1926
97*6
93*^
8 5 .6
86 .5
S3-7
71.6
1927
97*5
9^*9
84.2
59.7
79.9
57.3
192 S
97*3
91*5
7^.9
58.5
62.8
47.6
1929
67*9
86.4
6 2.3
53.6
6 1.3
42.1
1930
57*2
65.1
49.0
52.9
6 2 .6
48.2
1931
53*9
52.0
In.7
59.6
59.1
50.7
Average 87.6
Percent­
age
84.6
7^.5
75.5
75.9
66.2
Baa
of durability.
Logically for the ratings to be proper measures of quality it should
be expected tt-hato the average percentages of durability of the ratings
should decline as we pass from the highest rating group downward to the
lower groups.
The results for the two year period are as expected.
The
over-all averages of those bonds which remained in the same rating group
or were paid after two years are 8?.6$ for Aaas, 84.6$ and 74.5$ for Baas.
The Aaas have the highest durability, the Aas the next highest and the
Baas the lowest.
The results for the five year period are not as expected
i.e., the Aaas are 75*5$ durable, the Aas 75*9$ durable, and the Baas are
66.2.
The Aa group is slightly more durable for the five year period than
the Aaa group.
At the end of five years the ratings are beginning to fail
to measure relative quality.
Instead of looking at durability on an over-all average basis we may
examine the percentages relative to each other in all base years.
In the
two year study in only one year, 1930 when the Aaas are 57*2$ the Aas 65*1$
and the Baas 49.0$ is the pattern of gradually declining durability for
declining ratings broken.
This is not true of the five year study.
From
1927 through 1931 the durability of the Aaa group is less than that of the
Aa.
We may conclude that both on an over—all average for the leng period
.•ml an the yearly percentages of durability for the three ratings used, the
ratings measure relative quality for a two year period but begin to lose
their effectiveness for a five year period.
86
PERCENTAGE VIOLATIONS OF CONTRACT OF
Aaa, Aa ANN Baa RATINGS
FOR TWO YEAR AND FIVE YEAR PERIODS
that violated contract
fo
Rated
in
2 yrs. later
Baa
Aaa
Aa
.2
1919
1.9
3.3
$ that violated contract
Aaa
5 yrs, later
Aa
Baa
.2
0
2*5
5*7
3.4
7*2
1920
0
1.4
5.6
1921
0
.5
3*0
.1
1.4
2.5
1922
0'
.3
4.5
.1
1.5
3.6
1923
0
.3
6.1
0
1.8
S.3
1924
0
1.0
5.6
0
1.6
6.3
1925
0
.8
2.4
.1
1.7
4.3
1926
0
.4
1.6
.6
1*9
7*4
1927
0
2.1
.7
4.1
10.3
1928
0
.7
3*1
.6
4.3
14.7
1929
0
1.2
4.9
.4
4.7
19-8
1930
.1
1.9
6.7
.6
5*9
20.1
1931
.1
1.9
12.1
.4
7.?
13.3
1.1
4.7
*3
3*3
10.9
*
0
OJ
1
Average
Percent
ages
87
Let us examine the table “Percentage Violations of Contract of Aaa,
Aa and Baa Ratings for Two and Five Year Periods."
This provides figures
for an even better test of the ability of the ratings to measure quality.
The test is applied by finding the percentages of bonds in a particular
rating which violate their contract two years later and five years later.
This test is objective because default of principal or interest is objective.
It is very plain that the higher rated bonds should show fewer violations of
contract if they are to be measures of higher quality.
The results in this
case are most definitely favorable to the ratings as good standards of quality.
The over-all average percentage of Aaa bonds which defaulted (violated their
contract) within two years is .03$; the percentage for Aa bonds is 1.1$; and
the percentage for Baa bonds is
Because the number of violations of
contract measure quality and because the percentage number of violations of
contract get successively larger as the ratings decline, the ratings over
a two year period are satisfactory standards of quality.
period this is also true.
For the five year
The percentage of Aaa bonds which violated their
contracts after five years is only .3$; "the percentage for Aa bonds is 3*3$?
and the percentage for Baa bonds is 10*9$.
interesting to note that
from these figures we can get a standard of quality, for the Aaas at least,
which approaches the absolute, absolute quality might be viewed as complete
lack of violation of contract over the limited period selected.
It is
evident that the Aaa group approximates such an absolute standard for the
two year period, the percentage of violation of contract being only ,03$.
For the five year period too, the Aaa group is above much criticism in as
much as only .3$ of all Aaa rated bonds violate their contract during the
period.
Furthermore if we trace the relative percentages of violation of con­
tract by years throughout ti® period instead of only testing by the over-all
average additional support is given to the use of the ratings as criteria of
quality.
In all base years for both the two year and the five year study
the patterns are perfect i.e., in each year the lower the rating the larger
the percentages of violation of contract.
We may conclude that both on an
* over-all average for the long period and on the yearly percentages of viola­
tions of contract for the three ratings used the ratings measure relative
quality for both a two year and a five year period.
“Do the ratings measure in just as an efficient manner the quality of
bonds if we consider maturity groups within the ratings?"
This is an im­
portant question because the market study is made on the basis, not of the
ratings as a group, but rather on maturity groups within each rating.
From
an examination of the table, "History of Bonds by Ratings and Maturities"
it can be seen that the ratings even though sub-grouped into maturities
still measure satisfactorily the relative quality of bonds.
For the same
maturities the durability is, in general throughout the section of the
table "Percentage Same or Higher Rating or Called" higher the higher the
rating.
The pattern is not perfect, a notable exception occurring between
year
the thirty Baas and thirty year Aas for the "first, second and third years
after".
Another series of exceptions to the pattern is evident between the
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twenty-five year Aaas and the twenty-five year Aas for the "3rd, Ij-th, 5th
and 6th years aftkr."
But from the standpoint of violations of contract the
pattern exists without exception for all maturities and all "years after."
The Aa£ bonds have percentages of violations of contract lower than Aa bonds
of like maturities.
The Aa bonds have percentages of violations of contract
lower than Baa bonds of like maturity*
Moreover, these exist no matter which
of the six years after the base year are considered.
Other relationships might be pointed out from the figures so far pre­
sented but it is believed that the manner of presenting the evidence has
demonstrated that the ratings justifiably may be used as a means of grading
the quality of bonds.
It is necessary to realize that there are other tests of the adequacy
of ratings as standards of quality.
homogeneity of market action itself.
One of such additional tests is the
This test states that if the Aaa bonds,
say, act alike in market action, then they are alike in quality.
More
clearly, if the yield of these Aaa bonds always fluctuates below the yield
of Aa bonds, (also if the Aa yields are lower than the A bonds and so on)
then the Aaa rating truly contains the highest quality bonds, the Aa rating
contains the next highest quality bonds and so on for the other ratings.
But for the purposes here, there are at least two objections to this yield
test of ratings.
First, it might be alleged that the rating agencies, in
this case, Moodys', did not rate the bonds on quality factors but merely
followed the market fluctuations and changed the rating of a bond when its
91
market moved into a new yield or price grouping*
Second, in the market
study a measurement is made of market decline by quality.
The results
are stated as average declines classed by degrees of quality.
in this case cannot be measured by market action.
The criteria of quality
must be external to market action for our purposes.
have been presented.
Quality
Such external criteria
This reasoning does not deny that in general lower
yields indicate higher quality.
A study of bond price movements could be made using differential yields
as the basis for a quality classification.
A further reason for using the
ratings rather than the yields for this study is that of convenience.
Prac­
tical bank management purposes are more readily served by using the ratings
as representative of quality rather than the yields.
are available at all times for the use of the banker.
are also easily calculated.
The ratings of bonds
The yields, of course,
It is also true that an expert bond buyer has
an idea of the approximate yields corresponding to bonds of various quality
grades.
But, to set up quality classifications based on yields and follow
them through time would be most difficult in practice.
Just as the rating
agencies must do with the rating groups, so with any yield classification
of quality it would be necessary, by lines, of demarcation, to mark off the
highest quality from the next highest group and so on.
moreover, whenever
at a later date the bond investor wanted to ascertain with any exacti­
tude into what groups the bonds in his nortfolio fell he would have to
make a comprehensive tabulation of the yields of a large portion of the
bonds in the market.
Moreover, if the general level of yields had changed
new arbitrary lines of demarcation between the desired quality groups would
92
have to be decided upon.
This would be a cumbersome process.
From the
standpoint of convenience in practice ratings seem more suitable than yields
for making a quality classification.
Furthermore the use of yields as standards of quality has implicitly
an element of logical error involved.
The market and therefore the yields
are representative of "intrinsic value" only if the traders in the market
are well informed and have good judgment.
But if unintelligent traders are
dominant in the determination of market prices, market prices do not reflect
or coincide with "intrinsic value."
The market land the yields) may at
times be representative of quality and at other times not representative
of quality depending upon the composition of the traders in the market.
As Graham and ^odd say*
"In other words, the market is not a weighing machine, on which
the value of each issue is recorded by an exact and impersonal
mechanism, in accordance with its specific qualities. Father
should we say that the market is a voting machine, whereon
countless individuals register choices which are the product
partly of reason and partly of emotion." (3)
it is probably true that the higher the quality of a bond the more
likely the market (yield) will approximate the true quality.
This would
seem to be true because more informed trading is undoubtedly carried on
in the higher quality issues and because, in general, judgment of an issue
(U)
can be more certain the higher the quality.
The lower the quality the
less likely the yields will measure quality well.
true of the ratings for the lower rating groups.
Probably the same is
The point is that there
seems to be no reason to expect the yields to be any better than the
3 Graham and Dodd, Security Analysis,McGraw Hill Book Co. 193^4*
ij. See p. 25 of Security Analysis by Graham and Dodd.
23
93
ratings in the lower quality groups.
It may be that the yields and the
ratings both err in this regard in the lower quality groups.
It may also
be that both the yields and the ratings under-rate the less marketable
securities.
On these scores there seems to be little reason to prefer
the yields over the ratings for use in grading the quality of bonds.
For the reasons given the ratings have been used as a basis of
quality classification rather than the yields.
Up to now, evidence has been discussed for the purpose of showing that
relative to one another, the ratings show
gradations in
year, in any of a series of years and as an over-all
of years.
quality inany one
average for anumber
In only the case at the beginning of the chapter where Aaa and
Baa bonds were traced as to durability and violation of contract from 1930
to 1931 and 1931
1932 has the record of the ratings been followed from
year to year for the same rating.
This must now be done.
It should be
recognized that constancy of ratings through time is not so vital to this
investigation as the evidence just presented that ratings do measure dif­
ferential quality.
In fact it is much more important to show that the
period of the market study was not only the period of greatest price de­
cline but was also the period of shortest
durability of
the ratingsand
greatest violations of contract.
because it is
desired tofind
This is
the amount of greatest bond loss including loss in quality so that this
maximum may be related to an individual bank’s loss absorbing power.
The
bank then has a picture of the "worst” that happened in the past in relation
to its present position.
9k
An examination of the data on Aaa and Baa rated bonds brings to light
evidence that the 1931-1932 period was that of greatest fall in durability
and greatest rise in contract violations*
The table in this chapter headed RATINGS DURING VARIOUS PHASES OF THE
BUSINESS CYCLE also lends credence to this belief.
pression period 1929-1933»
rated in 1933
'the Aaa bonds so rated in 1929 were lower
'Ufa had violated their contracts.
of Aa bonds in 1929 were rated lower in 1933
contracts.
During the boom to de­
In the same period k3»&%
In the same period 35*k%
k*k% had violated their
the Baa bonds In 1929 were lower
rated in 1933 said 16*0% had violated their contract.
These figures are all
greater than the corresponding figures for the 1919-1922 boom to depression
period*
As may be expected they are also greater than the corresponding
figures of the prosperity period 1922+-1929 and the recovery period 19331936.
Without the additional presentation of voluminous detail it may be
concluded that not only is the 1931-1932 period that of the greatest de­
cline in bond prices but also that of the greatest destruction of bond
quality.
The differential quality evidenced by the foregoing analysis of the
rating statistics is conftaation that the bonds contained within the ratings
are homogeneous in quality.
In other words the railroad, industrial and
utility bonds within a rating group are all of approximately the same qual­
ity.
If such were not the case i.e., if the railroad bonds in the Aaa
group were really of lower quality, say Aa, then such lower quality would
95
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97
be reflected over the years In a greater number of violations of contract
and less durability of the rating group.
This would lead to an overlapping
of the percentages of violations of the Aaa and the Aa rating groups and an
overlapping of the percentages of durability of the Aaa and the Aa rating
groups.
Such overlapping we found did not exist from an examination of the
table PERCENTAGE VIOLATIONS OF CONTRACT OF Aaa, Aa AND Baa RATINGS FOR TWO
YEAR AND FIVE YEAR PERIODS and the table DURABILITY OF Aaa, Aa AND Baa
RATINGS FOR TWO YEAR AND FIVE YEAR PERIODS.
The other data discussed in
this Chapter point to the same *conclusion.
In most all the cases cited the figures showing differential quality
were all sharply enough distinguished one from the others to warrant the
belief that quality is homogeneous for one rating group as differentiated
from other rating groups»
It is well, however now to consider the objections which may be raised
to the above argument advanced in favor of the homogeneity of the ratings
regardless of industry.
It is plain that a rating can only represent a
range or band of quality; it cannot represent a point of quality.
This
makes clear the fact that there exists a variation of quality within each
rating group.
For the sake of illustration we might classify all Aaa bonds
into a new set of quality groupings consisting of narrower bands of quality.
We would find that the lowest quality band of the Aaa rating would be more
like the highest quality band of the Aa rating than the highest quality band
of the Aaa rating.
What has now been said is not an argument for or against
the ratings; it is merely a further description of the rating groups.
98
If further research were carried on by breaking down the data in
Appendices C and D into railroads, industrial and public utilities, etc,
it might be found that within each rating group the railroad bonds were,
on the average in the lower levels of the rating bands (groups).
But this,
if found, would not invalidate the homogeneity of the rating bands.
The nature of the averages comprising the figures used in this chapter
on ratings may now be brought into the analysis,
it might be found that
the average of violations of contract of Aaa railroad bonds was equal to
or greater than the average for the Aa public utilities.
This would give
an upward bias (in contract violation but a downward bias in quality) to
the over-all-average for the Aaa bonds.
The over-all-average for Aaa
bonds, however would not necessarily be equal to or greater than the overall-average for the Aa.
The public utility bonds might be so high on the
average in lack of violation of contract as to counterbalance the downward
bias (in quality) of the rail bonds.
But such a condition i.e., high
quality for public utilities and very low quality for rails within the same
rating band would have to prevail not only for one rating but for all rating
groups in order that no overlapping of the averages of violation of contract
exist.
The data show no overlapping.
Such ©- condition as described under
which the rails would be consistently underrated for all rating groups and
public utilities consistently overrated for all ratings groups would not
seem very likely.
It must be granted, however, that quality within the
rating groups is a range or band and that the rail bonds might well be
found in the lower levels of some of the rating bands.
N o rt h w e s t r
University
i-ib r a r y
Chapter VI
APPLICATION OP THE RESULTS OP THE
STUDY OP BOND PRICE DECLINES TO THE
INVESTMENT PORTPOLIO OP THE INDIVIDUAL BANK
The figures showing maximum percentage monthly, cumulative monthly
and yearly declines in bond prices by ratings and maturities as given in
Chapter IV will be applied in tfrhfcs chapter to an individual bankfs bond
portfolio.
A generalized method will be proposed for arriving at a single
figure which makes clear the relationship of the bank's loss absorbing power
to the amount by which its bond portfolio would decline in market value if
a fall in bond market prices occurred in the future in the same degree as
in the 1931-1932 period.
Por a systematic presentation two forms are needed.
One is "Appli­
cation of Percentage Declines by Ratings and Maturities to an Individual
Bank's Bond Portfolio."
The second is "Calculation of Available Equity
and its Relationship to Maximum Bond Portfolio Loss".
given on the next page.
The first form is
On examination of the table the methods of cal­
culation involved should appear without difficulty.
Let us take any indi­
vidual bank's bond portfolio and follow through the steps required to get
the total dollar figure of loss which would have been incurred if the same
or similarly rated portfolio of like maturities had been held in the 1931 —
1932 period.
The first step is to put the ratings on the bonds held by the bank
and to sort out the bonds by rating and by maturity according to the groups
99
£
M
•
4-3
M
*
-jP
A
c
c
pc
4
<
«
9
A
i
Total |Book
Aa!'fcp.
•H
Total
Value
"*R
Depreciation or
Appreciation
Value
\r
Ba
Lower
Un­
Book
rated
Risk
Rr-
Book
CM
Aa
•H
PA
Baa
O
EH
Book
sa
S3
Mkt.
C/3
Book
1
>h
LOi
O
EH
C\J
Aaa
m ■”
Value!
cn
3
>h
o
Risk
o
1-3
Value
20 TO 30 years!
CiJ
Valud Risk
10 TO 20 YEARS
w
Value
5 TO 10 YEARS
APPLICATION OP PERCENTAGE DECLINES BY RATINGS
AND MATURITIES TO AN INDIVIDUAL BANK'S BOND PORTFOLIO
TOTAL
100
A0
•r*
p:
“ —
2
■—
S>
Ph
NR
Ph
t
RR
RR
NR
CO
•H
Ph
101
shown in the form.
The hook value for each "block of "bonds in each ? ;
group is next calculated and entered in the proper space in the form.
All
"bonds are then priced at the current market and the total market value of
each group is found.
These total market value figures are entered in the
proper space in the form.
Uext, the percentage of maximum yearly market
decline is applied for each group to the figures of total market value and
a dollar total representing market decline is obtained for each group.
These figures are entered in the form under the columns headed risk and
to the right of the rows labeled market.
The various rows and columns are
added and the totals placed in the correct spaces in the right hand columns
headed "Total" and in the bottom rows headed "Total.”
It is probably un­
necessary to state that like figures inccOlumns and rows only should be
added.
The total amount of market risk is found in the fight bottom space
having a column heading "Risk” and a row heading "Market."
This figure is
an estimate of the maximum decline the bond portfolio wbuld have suffered
in the past.
The difference between total book value and total market value
is the appreciation (in case the market value is greater than the book value).
This appreciation or depreciation figure is shown at the right hand bottom
part of the form.
Both this figure and the figure of total market risk are
necessary in further calculations and are used in the second form.
The second form has been called "Calculation of Available Equity and its
Relationship to Maximum Bond Portfolio Loss."
The form is shown on the next
page where actual figures for a country bank have been used.
The name of
102
CALCULATION OF AVAILABLE EQUITY
AND ITS EELAT ION SHIP TO MAXIMUM
BOND PORTFOLIO LOSS
(Calculation of the
"Risk
Ratio")
Capital
Common
Preferred
or
Debentures
Total
$^00,000
0
_____ 0
POOTOOO
Equity Cushion
Surplus
Unidvi&ed
Profits
Unallocated
Reserves
$200,000
67,072
51,090
Total Equity Cushion
Deduct: yf> of L/D and Mortgages
Total Investment Cushion
Deduct: Depreciation in In­
vestment Account
Net Investment Cushion
JlS ,l6 2
75,870
242,292
'55,572
182,720
Maximum 12 Months Market Decline
in Aaa
Aa
A
Baa
Ba and
lower
2^,692
7,177
1 ^682
79.108
66,5^4
Investment Account Risk
192,223
Risk Ratio - Investment Account Risk. 192,223 _ 102$
Net Investment Cushion
188,720
the "bank and the date of the calculations are not indicated for obvious
reasons*
Starting with the top of the form it should he noted that al­
though the common stock is given and that places are provided for showing
and preferred or debentures these items are not carried down into the
calculation of the "Equity Cushion".
The "Equity Cushion" consists of the
surplus, the undivided profits, the unallocated reserves, if any, and the
appreciation of the bond portfolio's market value over its book value.
In
case depreciation exists, it is deducted from the sum of the other items to
get the "Equity Cushion."
Next from this figure is deducted 3$
value of the Loans and Discounts, and
the book
the Mortgages. It will be noticed
the adoption of a 3$ loss figure agrees approximately with the 3*3^ figure
recommended by Wooster.
After the deduction the remainder represents the
portion of the bank's available equity apportioned to absorb losses in the
bond portfolio.
It represents the bond loss absorbing power of the bank.
In the lower portion of the table are placed the dollar values of past max­
imum market decline by ratings and a total figure obtained called "Invest­
ment Account Risk."
The figures for this are obtained from the first form
which already has been explained.
The last step in arriving at the
"Risk Ratio" is that
ofdividing the
"Investment Account Risk" (in terms of figures, $192,223) by the "Net Invest­
ment Cushion" (the bond loss absorbing power in this case is $188,720).
answer is multiplied by one hundred in order to express it in percentage
This is the "Risk Ratio" and is the single figure mentioned
The
IQl*
paragraph of this chapter measuring the risk of bond loss, assuming the
"worst" decline again occurs, in relation to the bank's loss absorbing
power.
In terms of words, the figure of 102$ means that if the bonds held
by the bank decline in price as much as similar maturing and rated bonds
did during the twelve month's period of maximum decline since the World
War, then the loss incurred will be equal to 102$ of the ability of the
bank to absorb that loss and still have enough equity to take a 3$ loss
(approximately the 1927-193& historical maximum) on its loans and discounts
and its mortgages while still retaining its capital unimpaired.
Because the intelligent banker may not be expected to sit inactively
by during a major twelve months downward movement in bond prices but will
take steps to protect his equity before the full decline has run its course,
we are interested in the maximum decline which could occur before the banker
could or would take action.
Past maximum monthly percentage declines and
cumulative monthly percentage declines have been calculated.
Using either
or both of these sets of percentage figures additional "Risk Ratios" on a
monthly decline basis or a cumulative monthly decline basis may be calculated.
The "Risk Ratio" based on monthlydecline figures would
percentage which the maximum past
power of the bank.
give, of course, the
loss in a month is of the loss absorbing
Such a "Monthly Risk Ratio" might be more satisfactory
than a "Yearly Risk Ratio" for an
alert banker in touch with the bond market.
Such a banker in the event of a decline, might be
ableto sell rather rapidly
enough bonds to quickly bring his "Risk Ratio" back up.
The URisk Ratio" on
105
the has is of maximum cumulative declines can he used in a similar way and
might he more useful than the "Monthly Risk Ratio" which if used alone might
make the hanker "jittery" (an in and out trader) because of the short time
(one month) in which he would have to act to raise his "Risk Ratio."
Although in application to certain individual cases there may he modi­
fications of procedure, the ahove provides a generalized method for calcu­
lating an index on three hases showing the market risk hased on the past
maximum declines in relationship to the loss absorbing power of an indivi­
dual hank.
The results are not in the nature of forecasts hut are descrip­
tive providing a hanker with information of past events on which may he
decided, in part, his judgment of his future bank bond policy.
io6
BIBLIOGEAPHY
107
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Periodicals
COMMERCIAL AND FINANCIAL CHRONICLE, May 1931 and January
1932 issues.
Garlock, Fred L., Loan Policies of Country Banks as Influenced by Type
of Investment Holdings; AGRICULTURAL"FINANCE REVIEW, U.S.
Dept, of Agriculture, Vol. 1, No. 2, November 1938.
FITCH BOND RECORDS of the following dates:
May 5, 1931
' Jan. 5, 1932
July 7, "
Feb. 2,
11
June 2, "
Mar. 8,
n
Aug.
"
Apr. 5,
M
Sept. 8,”
May 3,
"
Oct. 6, ”
June 7,
n
Nov. 3* "
Dec. 8, "
Lunden, Lawrence R., Extent of Reserves to Absorb Bond Losses in State
Banks; FINANCIAL AND INVESTMENT REVIEW,' December 1936,
Vol. V, No. 4.
Lunden, Lawrence R., A Reappraisal of the Adequacy of Reserves to Absorb
Bond Losses^ in State Banks; FINANCIAL AND INVESTMENT
REVIEW, October 1937, Vol VI, No. 2.
MOODY18 BOND
RECORD, December 20, 1939, Vol 6, No. 2i+.
MOODY’S BOND SHRVEYS 1931 and 1932 issues.
Palyi, Melchior, Bank Portfolios and the Control of the Capital Market,
THE JOURNAL OF BUSINESS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO,
Vol. XI, No. 1, January 1938.
Books
Badger, Ralph E, and
Guthmann, Harry G., Investment Principles and Practices
Graham, Benjamin and
Dodd, David L.
Security Analysis,193U
Harold, Gilbert,
Bond R atings as an Investment Guide, 1938
Moody’s Investors Service, Moody’s Industrial, Public Utilities, Rail­
road and Banks, Insurance, Real Estate, Investment
Trust Manuals. 1931, 1932 and 1939 issues.
Dstrolenk, Bernhard and
Massie, Adrian M . , How Baziks Buy Bonds, 1932
Wilkinson, Jr., J. Harvie, Investment Policies for Commercial Banks, 1938
Wooster Jr., James W., Banker’s Handbook of Bond Investment, 1939
Private Sources of Material
Records of Moody’s Investors Service, New York and Chicago
offices.
APPENDICES
109
APPENDIX A
CORPORATION BOND PRICE AND YIELD INDEXES
COVERING THE PERIOD 1913-1958
(Monthly Indexes with Monthly Changes,
Consecutive Monthly Declines and 12 Month
Changes)
Note:
The data in this appendix are used in Chapter IV
to determine the period of individual bond price
study•
110
AVERAGE PRICE OP ALL
DOMESTIC BONDS LISTED
ON THE
NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE
1925
Jan.
Pel).
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nev.
Dec.
1226
Jan.
Pet.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oci.
Nev.
Dec.
1221
Jan.
Pel).
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov*
Dec.
MONTHLY
INDEX
95.57
96.65
96.U9
96.99
97.57
MONTHLY AVERAGES
BY MONTHS 1925-1938
TOTAL OP
CONSECUTIVE
MONTHLY
1 MONTH
DECLINES______
4
.08
.1 6
9 7 .5 2
9 7 .1 6
9 7 .0 1
9 6 .su
9 6 .9 0
9 7 .3 9
9 7 .2 5
9 7 .9 1
9 8 .0 s
9 7 .7 6
98.85
98.73
9 8 .6 7
98.U9
98.39
98.21
98.60
9 8 .9 6
99.U2
4 .66
4 .17
- .32
+- I .09
— .12
- .06
- •18
- .1 0
— .18
4 .39
4
4
.15
.17
•06
.49
ll4
4
4
4
4
4
4
.37
.02
.3 2
.01
.12
.48
.31
.36
.2 0
.17
,U6
f
.01
i
4
4
—
-.16(1 me.)
.50
.58
.05
4
+
4
4
-
99.79
99.81
10 0.13
1 0 0.12
100 .2 U
99.76
1 0 0.07
1 00 .U3
1 0 0 .6 3
100.30
1 0 1 .2 6
101.27
12 MONTHS
-.73 (4moe.)
-.l4 (1 me*)
-.32 (1 mo.)
-.64 (5 mos.)
“ .01 (1 mo.)
— .48 (1 mo.)
+ 1 .3^
+ 1.^3
4 1.27
4 1.86
* 1.16
+ 1.15
+ 1*33
+ 1 .3 8
4 1*37
+ 1 -70
+ !•**
+1.73
+ 2.37
+ 1 .2 7
4 1.5 1
4 1.09
+
+ 2 .ou
■* 2 .U2
+ 2.20
+ 2.30
+ i.*5
Ill
AVERAGE PRICE OP ALL
DOMESTIC BONDS LISTED
ON THE
NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE
MONTHLY AVERAGES
BY MONTHS 1925-1938
(continued)
192 s____
Jan*
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1929
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct*
Nov.
Dec.
i222.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
MONTHLY
INDEX
101.17
101.00
1 0 1 .1 6
100.73
99*82
99.27
98.26
98.34
98.31
98.61
98.69
97*98
1 MONTH
- .10
- .17
4 .1 6
- .*3
- .91
- .55
- 1 .0 1
4 .08
- .03
4 .30
4 .08
» .71
97.72
97.02
95.81
96.69
97*21
9 6 .0 5
96.40
96.19
95.58
95.64
9 6 .8 0
97.03
- .2 6
- .70
- 1.21
4 .88
4 .52
- 1 .1 6
4 .35
- .21
- .61
4 .06
- 1 .1 6
+ .23
96.71
97.27
98.53
9747
97.90
97.64
9 8 .2 9
98.58
98.83
9 9 .5 7
9 6 .51
9 5 .9 0
- .32
4 .56
4 1 .2 6
- .76
4 .13
- .2 6
4 .65
+ .29
4 .25
- 1 .2 6
- 1 ,0 6
- .61
TOTAL OP
CONSECUTIVE
MONTHLY
DECLINES
-*27 (2 mos.)
•2 .9 0 (4 m®s.)
—,03 (1 mo.)
12 MONTHS
1.3S
1.19
1 .0 3
•6l
- .42
- .**9
- 1.81
- 2.04
- 2 .3 2
- 2 .1 9
- 2.57
- 3-29
-2, 88 (1+ mos, )
-
-l.l6 (1 mo.)
-
-.82 (2 mos.)
—I.l6 (1 mo.)
- .3 2
(1 mo.)
— .7 6 (1 mo.)
— .2 6 (1 mo.)
-2.93 (3 mos.)
+
4
4
4
+
a
+
*
+
-
3.^5
3*98
5 .3 5
4.04
2 .6 1
3.22
1 .8 6
2.15
2.73
2.97
1 .8 9
.95
1 .0 1
*25
2.72
1.08
.69
1.59
1 .8 9
2.39
3*25
1.93
.29
1 .1 3
112
A5TE1AGE PRICE OP ALL
DOMESTIC BONDS LISTED
ON THE
NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE
MONTHLY AVERAGES
BY MONTHS 1925-1938
(continued)
1221
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nev.
Dec.
Jan.
Pet).
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1221
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
MONTHLY
INDEX
96.10
9 6 .6 3
96.110
95.70
9 I+.88
95.86
95.1*9
93.75
8 8 .31+
S6 .1 3
81+.D3
SO.1 9
1
+
+
+
-
MONTH
.20
.53
-23
.7 0
.82
.98
.37
S0 .3 I+
82.02
80.57
79.31
73-57
75.66
79.25
83.70
83-93
82.04
si. 36
81.65
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
.15
1 .6 S
1 .1+5
1 .2 6
5.7i*
2 .0 9
3.59
4.1+5
.2 3
1.89
.68
.2 9
83.32
79.09
78.58
80.07
81+.73
86.81+
8 8 .0 3
87.91
85.82
81+.70
82.98
85.11
*
+
+
4
+
+
1 .6 7
1+.23
0 .5 1
1.1+9
1+.66
2.11
1.19
0.12
2.09
1.12
1.72
2 .1 3
TOTAL OP
CONSECUTIVE
MONTHLY
DECLINES
12 MONTHS
75T
- .6*+
-
- 1.75
l.jk
2 .2 1
2 .0 0
3.9i*
2 .1 3
2 .0 7
3 .0 2
1.78
2.80
1+.83
-10 .1+9
-1 1 .1+U
-1 2 .3 s
-15.71
-
-1 5 *6l (6 mos.)
- 8.1+5 (3 mos*)
- 2 .5 6 (2 mos,)
-I+.7 I+ (2 mos.)
-15.76
-1 I+.61
-15.83
-16.39
-21.31
-20.20
-1 6 .21+
-1 0 .0 5
- 1+.1+1
- 1+.09
- 2 .7 7
+• 1 .1+6
+ 2 .9 S
- 2.93
- 1.99
+ .76
+11.16
+1 1 .IS
+ s.78
— 5*05
mos.)
+
+
+
+
f
1+.21
1.89
2 .6 6
1 .6 2
3-^6
113
AVERAGE PRICE OF ALL
DOMESTIC BONDS LISTED
ON THE
NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE
MONTHLY AVERAGES
BY MONTHS 1925-193S
(continued)
193*1
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
A?r.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
MONTHLY
INDEX
88.77
9 0 .1 2
91.09
92.5*1
92.32
93.16
9 2 .0 0
91.13
90.05
91.23
9 1 .6 s
92.57
1221
Jan.
Fel).
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1956
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
93-35
93-35
91.79
92.95
9 2 .8 1
93.9*1
9 4 .1 2
93.07
92.65
9 2 .8 U
93.69
9M 7
9 6 .1 6
97.22
97.26
9 6 .6 9
97.38
97.63
98.19
9 8 .SI
99.27
99 .U1
100.55
1 0 0 .7 6
1
4
4
+
+
4
4
4
+
MOHTH
3 .6 6
1-35
.97
1.45
.2 2
.S4
1 .1 6
.87
l.OS
1.18
.*15
.89
4
.78
t
+
4
t
4
4
1 .5 6
1 .1 6
,lU
1.13
.18
1 .0 5
.42
-19
.85
.78
4 1.69
4 1 .0 6
4 .oU
- .57
4 .69
4 .25
4 .5 6
4 .6 2
4 .*16
4 .1*1
■f 1 .1*1
4 *21
TOTAL OF
CONSECUTIVE
MONTHLY
DECLINES
12 MONTHS
•h 5**45
fll.0 3
4-12.51
4-12.^7
-*22 (1 mo*)
- 7.59
+ 6 .3 2
+ 3.97
+ 3.22
-3*11 (3 mos.]
+ 14.23
+ 6.53
1 S . 70
f 7**46
— I.56 (l mo.)
- .1*4 (1 mo.)
+ if.53
* 3.23
+ .70
+ .145
+ .*49
+ .7 8
+ 2.12
— 1.1*7 (2 mos.)
— .57 (1 mo.)
+ 1.9^
+ 2 .6 0
*hl. 6l
•w 2.01
+ 1.90
+ 2.81
+ 3.37
+ 5**47
4- 3*7*4
+ *4*57
+ 3*69
•f *4.07
t 5*7*4
t- 6 .6 2
+ 6.57
+ 6.86
4 6 .2 9
Ilk
AVERAGE PRICE OP ALL
DOMESTIC BONDS LISTED
ON THE
NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE
MONTHLY AVERAGES
BY MONTHS 1925-1938
(continued)
1937
Jan.
Peb*
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct*
Nov.
Dec*
1938
Jan.
Pet)*
Mar*
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec*
MONTHLY
INDEX
1 0 0 .0 5
99*83
9 6 .36
96.27
96.79
95.84
9 6 .32
95*64
94.54
93*17
92.36
92.75
91.64
92.44
S8 .7 1
90.84
9 0 ,81
91.97
93*32
92.53
9 2 .1 0
93*70
93*30
94.35
1
+
+
+
MONTH
*71
.2 2
2.97
*59
*52
*95
*98
1.18
1 .1 0
1*37
*81
.39
1 .1 1
.80
3*73
2 .1 3
.03
1 .1 6
1*35
*79
.*3
1 *60
- .4o
+ 1 .0 5
+
+
+
+
-
POINTS
Maximun Monthly decline
5.7*
Second Largest Monthly decline
5*41
12
months
decline
2
1 .3 1
Maximum
i
ecline
20*20
Second Largest 12 months <
Decline Peal: t® Bottom for
Whole Period 1925—1938
27.70
(101.27 to
73-57)
TOTAL OP
CONSECUTIVE
MONTHLY
DECLINES
4.49 (4 mos*)
*95 (1 mo.)
-4.46 (4 mos.)
l . U (1 mo.)
3 .7 3 (1 mo.)
.0 3 (1 mo.)
1 .2 2 (2 mos.)
i ,
v
.40 (1 mo.)
12
+
+
-
MONTHS
3.39
2 .6l
.4o
.42
*59
I .79
1*37
3*17
- 6.24
- S .19
- 8 .0 1
-
8.4l
7*39
8 .1 5
5*43
5 .9 8
3*87
3*50
3.11
2.44
+ *5?
+ .94
<+ 1 .6 0
DATE
DURATION
Apr.-May 1932
1 month
Aug.-Sept. 1931 1 month
May 1931-May 1932 1 year
June 1931“
1 y®ar
June 1932
Dec. 1927-May
4 years
1932 5 months
115
AVERAGE PRICE OP ALL
DOMESTIC BONDS LISTED
ON THE
NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE
MONTHLY AVERAGES
BY MONTHS 1925-1938
POINTS
Maximum Decline toy Consecutive
Months
Second Largest Decline toy
Consecutive Months
Highest Point in 1928 to Bottom
15*61
8 .M5
27.60
(1 0 1 .17 -
DATE
DURATION
July to Dec. 1931
6 months
Mar. to May 1932
3 months
Jan. 1928-May 1932 b years
U months
73.57)
Highest Point in 1929 to Bottom
2^.15
(9 7 .72 -
Jan. 1929-May 1932
3 years
H months
Sept. 193°“May 1932
1 year
8 months
Feto. 1931“^ay 1932
1 year
3 months
73.57)
Highest Point in 193®
Bottom
Highest Point in 1931
Bottom
Peak to Lowest Point in 1931
Peak to Lowest Point in 193^
Peak to Lowest Point in 1929
Peak to Lowest Point in 1928
25.26
(98 .83-
73.57)
2 3 .0 6
(9 6 .63 73.57
21.08
(101.2780.19
5*37
(101.279 5 .9 0 )
5 .6 9
(1 0 1 .27 9 5 .53 )
3 .2 9
(1 0 1 .27 97.98)
Dec. 1927-Dec. 1931 ^ years
Dec. 1927-Dec. 1930 3 year®
Dec. 1927-Sept. 1929 1 year
9 months
Dec. 1927-Dec. 1928
1 year
ll6
DOW JONES
BOND INDEX
(40 BONDS MONTHLY)
1915
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1916
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1211
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
MONTHLY
INDEX
76.51
74.80
75.19
76.75
75.91
75.97
75.50
75.3^
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
7 6 .0 2
78.63
8 O .3 4
80.11
- 1.71
+ *39
+ 1.56
- 0.84
■i* .0 6
- .47
- .1 6
+ .6 8
V 2 .6l
+ 1.71
- .21
80.49
80.42
8 0 .51
80.29
80.77
8 0 .5 0
79.77
79.58
80.01
8 1 .0 3
8 1 .5 6
81.00
+ .3 8
- .07
*► .09
- .2 2
¥ .48
- .27
- *73
- .19
+ .4 3
+ 1 .0 2
* .53
- .56
8 1 .91
79.97
79.66
77.82
75.73
75.26
76.10
75.40
73-85
72.76
70 .21
6 8 .3 0
¥
.91
- 1.94
- .31
- 1.84
- 2 .0 9
- .4 7
¥ .84
- .7 0
- 1.55
- 1 .0 9
- 2.55
- 1.91
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
YEARLY
DIFFERENCE
- 1.71
-
.84
-
.6 3
-
.21
-
.07
-
.22
- 1.19
-
.56
- 6 .6 5
- 7 .8 0
*
+
*
+
v
¥
t
+
+
r
t
+
3.9S
5.62
5.32
3.54
4.86
4.53
4.27
4.24
3.99
2.40
1.22
.S9
f
-
1.42
.45
.85
2.47
5.04
5.24
3.67
- 4.1s
- 6 .1 6
- S.27
-11.35
-1 2 .7 0
11?
DOW JOKES
BOND INDEX
(HO BONDS MONTHLY)
(continued)
1918
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1919
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec .
MONTHLY
INDEX
69.2b
70.05
69-27
6S.92
70.0H
69.31
68.76
68.52
67.79
69.57
73.58
73.06
71.68
71.27
70.87
70.05
71.03
71.3S
70.3H
68.18
67.HO
67.97
65.23
63.3S
1920
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
0c6*
Nov.
Dec.
6U.18
61.77
62.03
59.>+5
57-29
57-H5
57.37
57.36
59*12
62.07
60.6H
57-72
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
4 .96
4 .79
- -78
- .35
4 1.12
- -73
- .55
- .2H
- .73
4 1 .7s
+ H.01
- .52
- 1.38
- .41
- .Ho
- .82
4 .98
v .35
- 1 .0H
- 2.16
- .78
+ .57
- 2 .7H
- 1.85
.80
- 2.Hi
4 .26
- 2.58
- 2.16
4 .16
- .08
- .01
- .76
+ 2.95
- I.H3
- 2.92
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
difference
- 1.13
YEARLY
DIFFERENCE
-12.65
- 9*92
-10.39
- S.90
- 5-69
- 5.95
- 7-3^
-
- 2.25
6.88
- 6 .0 6
- 3.19
4 3.37
■v ^ .7 6
t 2.H2
t
-
3.53
1 .2 2
4 1 .6 0
4 1.13
4 .99
4 2.07
t 1-5^
-
- 3.9s
- H.59
- .39
- 1 .6 0
- 8.35
- 9.68
- 2.Hi
- 7.50
- 9.50
4
- S.SH
- H.7H
-
.85
- H.35
-10.60
-13-7^
-13.93
-12.97
-10.82
8.28
- 5.90
- H.59
4 5*66
118
DOW JONES
BOND INDEX
(llO BONDS MONTHLY)
(continued)
1921
Jan*
Feb.
Mar*
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug*
Sept*
Oct.
Nov.
Dec*
MONTHLY
INDEX
6 0 .Si
6o.es
5 9 .21
59.39
59.S6
57.75
58.39
59.59
60.7S
59.83
62.13
6S.10
MONTHLY
DIITKEENCE
+ 2.69
- .1 6
- 1.0S
+ .18
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
difference
YEARLY
DIFFERENCE
3.77
1.52
.
2 32
*06
1.20
-
4 .07
- 1.71
2.17
.3©
1.52
2.2 3
1 .6 2
2*2*1
l.*19
6 .3 S
- 1.71
4 l.lS
+
.70
+ 1.15
- .91
4 2.30
+ 1.97
.91
1922
Jan*
Feb.
Mar*
Apr*
May:
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct*
Nev.
Dec.
1222
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
70.22
70.71
71.85
73.69
7^.72
7S.28
75.SS
76.80
77.S7
75.96
7S.10
7S.i1
73.76
73*S2
7 1 .6 5
71.29
71.71
71.80
71.SO
71.86
71.22
70.56
70.96
71.OS
4 6.12
+ .51
.01
+ 9.31
■♦10*19
412 .6*1
+1 *1.30
415.26
416.53
416.55
417.21
416.73
416.13
+11.97
410.01
- *35
4 3.5^
4 l.lS
4 1.8S
+ I.03
- .ss
4 1.16
4 1.36
4 .67
- I.51
- 1.86
+
- .*1*1
- 3*37
+ 2.71
- *3**
- 1*77
-
-
1
+
+
4
2.32
.20
- 2.U0
3*01
:8
-
.09
- 2.*±S
.Uo
.*16
.6*1
*66
.*40
.os
-
.*10
- 3.6*1
- k.sk
- 6.2 5
- 1*30
- 5 .*10
- 3.1*1
- 3.07
119
DOW JONES
BOND INDEX
(40 BONDS MONTHLY)
(continued)
1924
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1923
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1926
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
MONTHLY
INDEX
72.23
72.15
72.35
72.67
73.17
74.59
75.81
75.93
75.*W
75.7^
7 6 .0 6
75.77
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
- 1 .1 9
- .08
4 .20
+ *32
4 .50
4 1.42
+ 1 .2 2
4 .1 2
- .53
4 .34
4 .32
4 .29
78.46
77.56
76.3^
76.92
7 6 .7 8
77.12
77.56
4 .0 3
+ .75
- .44
4 .13
4 1.46
t .50
- .90
- 1 .2 2
4 .58
- .19
4 .3 9
+ M
78.59
79.69
79.32
80*16
8 0 .0 8
80.82
8 0 .5 6
80.48
80.42
80. 31
si. 36
8 1 .9 5
+ 1 .0 3
4 1.10
- .37
4 .84
- .08
4 .7*
- .2 6
- .OS
- .0 6
- .11
4 1.05
4 .59
7 6 .0 7
7 6 .8 2
7 6 .3 8
76.51
11*31
COMULATIYE
MONTHLY
BIFFEBENCE
1.27
•53
.44
YEARLY
DIFFERENCE
- 1.53
- 1.27
4 .70
4 1.38
- 1.46
4 2.79
- 4.4l
4 4.07
4 4.18
+ 5.1S
4 5-10
4 4.73
+ ?.S4
4 4.67
4 4 .0 3
4 3.84
- 2.12
- .19
-
-37
-
.OS
4
+
+
+
4
+
4
4
4. SO
3-^9
1.75
.^3
1 .5 2
.99
1.06
1.79
- 2.52
t 2.87
4 2.94
4 3.65
4 2.11
2.36
4 3.00
+ 4.l4
4
+ 3.50
.51
4 3 .5 8
+ 4.24
4 **.39
120
DOW JONES
BOND INDEX
(kO BONDS MONTHLY)
(continued)
1927
Jan*
Feb.
Mar*
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug,
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
MONTHLY
INDEX
82.52
82.23
82.66
83.19
S3.37
82.69
82.81
83.98
84.35
85.05
85.43
85.9S
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
+ .57
- .29
4 .43
*• *53
4* .18
- .68
* .12
f 1.17
f .37
* .70
+ .38
4 .55
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
- .29
- .68
86.15
86.13
86.04
86.26
85.54
83.54
82.45
81.68
82.53
82.79
83.31
82.34
1929
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
82.39
81.48
80.34
80.00
79.33
78.37
77.99
77.43
77.23
78.23
78.08
79.65
4 .17
- .02
- .09
4* .22
- .72
- 2.00
- 1.09
- .77
+ .87
4 .26
+ .52
- .97
4* .05
- .91
- 1 .1H
- .34
- .67
- .96
- .38
- .56
- .20
+ 1.00
- .15
t 1.57
4 3.93
4 2.54
4 3.34
+ 3.03
4- 3.29
4 1.87
4 2.25
4 3.50
U S
+ H.07
+ ^.03
1928
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
YEARLY
DIFFERENCE
- .11
* 3.63
* 3.90
+ 3.38
. 3.07
+ 2.17
.85
- .36
- 2.30
4
- 4.58
~ .97
- 1.82
4 2.26
- 2.12
- 3.64
—
-
3.76
r
j*
4.65
._
5.70
6.26
6.21
5.17
- 4.46
\. _
-
-
5.16
- .15
_
^.25
5.30
4.56
5.23
- 2.69
+
-
121
DOW JONES
BOND INDEX
1930
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept*
Oct*
Nov*
Dec *
122 L
Jan*
Feb;
Mar*
Apr*.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec*
1932
Jan*
Feb.
Mar.
Apr*
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept*
Oct*
Nov.
Dec*
MONTHLY
INDEX
79.44
79.58
(UO BONDS MONTHLY)
(continued)
- CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
DIFFERENCE
*21
-
8 1 .2 7
8 1 .2 3
81.20
8 1 .1 0
81.43
82.93
84.26
82. Ug
81.10
78.96
+
+
+
+
-
8 1 .9 8
8 2 .0 6
82.20
80.86
¥ 3*02
1*69
.04
.03
*10
•33
1*50
1.33
1.77
1*39
- 2.14
79.07
80.99
77.05
72.24
65 .O6
64.08
53.23
*08
¥ *l4
-» 1.3*
- i: 2
4- 1*92
- 3 .9 *
- 4.81
- 7.18
- .98
- .85
57.47
57.23
58.25
1(9.42
43.08
41.39
42.98
53.35
5 5 .0 1
4 9 .8 6
47.51
44.05
4.24
.2*
1*02
8 *8 J
6.34
1.69
1.59
.37
1*66
5.15
2**55
3.46
so.4s
-
*21
.I k
-
¥
¥
¥
-
- 2*95
- 1.90
+ *93
+
1.23
+ 1*87
-
.17
♦ 2*73
+ 3*i&
+ 5.50
+ 7.03
4. k.2S
¥ 3-02
- 5.30
- .69
4- 2*5*
+ 2**8
+
-
YEARLY
DIFFERENCE
* *93
- .37
- .72
- 3.13
- 2*03
- .w
- 5.88
-
12*02
-17**3
-17.76
-17.02
-25.73
-2U* 51
-
.2k
—16*86
-24.33
-23.95
-31.44
-37*40
-37.68
-
38.01
-23.70
-17.23
- 15.20
-16.57
-10.96
- 9 .1 8
122
DOW JONES
BOND INDEX
(1+0 BONDS MONTHLY)
(continued)
1221
Jan.
Feb.
Mar*
Apr*
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov*
Dec.
122
*
Jan.
Feb.
Max.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1221
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec .
MONTHLY
INDEX
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
_
4 2.89
1+5.22
1+2 .0 1
1+1 .3 5
.66
-
4 9.29
67.67
+17.03
69.56
66*99
62 .11+
65*1+6
4
+
5.33
.33
3.09
2.59
1+.85
3.32
71.69
6 .1+3
77.65
79.73
5.96
83 .U2
82*93
83.89
- 5.59
-
10.86
3.69
- .1+9
8++.12
81*66
78.97
81*25
82.05
2 .1+6
8 3 .9 1
1.86
86*02
8 3 .1 6
79 .00
4 2.11
2.86
- 1+.16
- .6 3
4 1 .2 3
4 1.1+8
+ .8 7
- .0$
- .08
- 2 .3 1
78*37
79.60
81.08
81*95
81.90
81.82
79.51
83.52
86.50
2.69
- 5.15
2.28
.80
4 1+.01
+ 2.98
-1 2.01
-1 6 .21+
- 8 .0 7
4 7.56
+26.28
t30 .0 2
+19.32
1.88
.1+9
.96
YEARLY
DIFFERENCE
-10.53
- 1.72
- 3.21
50.61+
73.00
72.67
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
+11+.57
417.13
4II+.63
421.1+1
+2H.95
+32.63
+37.72
+42.07
+32.29
+1 6 .2 2
+11.12
4 8.99
+ 9*1+0
+11+.26
+19.91
+18.1+5
41U.13
+ 5.31
- 7.65
- .73
“ 5.05
- 3.33
- 2.81
- 2.17
4 .21+
4 2.85
- 2 .1+U
- 1.71+
4 1.1+7
+ 2.59
123
DOW JONES
BOND INDEX
(HO BONDS MONTHLY)
(continued)
1936
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
■Apr,
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1221
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
-Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D$c.
i22£
Jan.
Feb.
Mar*
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
MONTHLY
INDEX
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
92.70
+ 6.20
+ 3.71
+ .09
- 1.53
- .09
+ 1.23
+ 1.24
+ 2.03
+ 1.81
+ l.Ho
+ .11
+ .3^
96.H1
96.50
9^.97
9H.88
96.11
97.35
99.3S
101.19
102.59
102.70
103.oH
102.91
101.32
98.86
95.61
96.60
95.56
96.71
95.65
90.79
8H.32
77.65
77.73
72.77
72.31
66.70
63.62
67.09
60.36
68.72
- .13
- 1.59
- 2.H6
- 3.05
+ .79
- l.oH
+ 1.15
- .86
- 5.06
- 6.H7
- 6.67
+ .08
- H.96
.H6
- 5.61
- 3.08
+ 3.^7
- 6.73
+ 8.36
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
YEARLY
DIFFERENCE
+ 6*Ss
+13.25
+17.50
+16.60
- 1.62
+15*28
415.03
+15.Ho
+17.H8
+19.37
+23.OS
+19.16
+16.5H
+10.21
H.91
2.36
- 7.23
- l.oH
-19.06
-lH.ll
.SH
I.72
- .55
- .6H
- 3.53
-10.Ho
-is.27
-25.05
-25.31
-30.1H
-29.01
-32.16
-32.19
-29.51
-35.20
-27.99
DOW JONES
BOND INDEX
(HO B O N D S M O N T H L Y )
(continued)
MOUNT
Maximum Monthly Decline
Second Largest Monthly Decline
Maximum Decline by Consecutive
Months
Second Largest Decline by
Consecutive Months
Maximum 12 Months Decline
Second Largest 12 Months
Decline
Decline Peak to Bottom
(Whole Period 1915-1936)
DATE
DURATION
April 1932
October 1931
1 month
1 month
1 9 .0 6
Aug. - Nov. 1937
H months
17.76
38.01
Aug. - Dec. 1931
July 1931-J^y 1932
S.S3
7.18
5 months
12 months
June 1931-June 1932 12 months
April 1928- J u n e 1932 H years
- H i . 87
2 months
(8 6 .2 6 — to.3 9 )
23 years
37.68
125
MOODY'S BOOT) YIELD AVERAGES
120 DOMESTIC CORPORATION BONDS
BY RATINGS
(ALL 120 BONDS)
1919
Jan*
Fe*b.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1920
Jan.
Fe*b.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov*
Dec *
I92I
Jan.
Pe"b.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
MONTHLY
INDEX
6.16
6.20
6.20
6.22
6.15
6.10
6.13
6.25
6*35
6*33
6.fe
6.66
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
YEARLY
DIFFERENCE
+ .ob
4 .06
4
4
.02
.07
.03
.03
.12
4
.1 0
4 .25
- .02
4 .13
4- .18
♦ *33
4
6 .65
6.Si
6.86
7*02
7*26
7*29
7.29
7-29
7.12
6*99
7.09
7-3^
4
4
4
.01
.16
,05
.16
4 ,2b
4 .03
-—
---
7*20
7.15
7*19
7.20
7*21
7*27
7.23
7.14
7.02
6.92
6*57
6.36
«
4
4
+
4
-
- *17
- .13
4 .10
f .25
„lk
.09
.04
.01
.01
.06
.oU
.09
.12
- .10
- .35
- .21
4
4
,Gb
4 *35
4 .10
.1*9
4 .61
4 .66
4 .61
4 1 .11
+ 1.19
+ 1.16
4 1.0U
t .77
4 .66
4 .61
4 .63
.55
4
4
,jb
*
4
-
-33
.18
.05
.02
.06
.15
.10
.07
.52
*92
126
MOODY* S BOND YIELD AVERAGES
120 DOMESTIC CORPORATION BONDS
BY RATINGS
(ALL 120 BONDS)
(continued)
1922
Jan*
Eeb,
Mar*
-Apr*
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov*
Dec.
1925
Jan.
Eet.
Mar*
-Apr*
May*
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov*
Dec.
MONTHLY
INDEX
6.35
6.?U
6.17
6.01
5.89
5.92
5.sit
5.78
5.71
5.76
5.83
5.89
5.37
5.90
6.03
6.09
6.0lt
6.05
6.10
6.0lt
6.0S
6.11
6.09
6.0S
MONTHLY
DXSmUNON
- .01
-
6.01
5.98
5.96
5.9^
5.83
5.79
5-70
5.72
5.72
5.67
_
-
+
.03
.06
.07
.05
.os
+
.13
*01
- .02
+ .03
+ .13
+ .06
~ .05
+ .01
+ .05
- .06
* .O^
•
1* .03
.85
.91
— 1.02
.16
- .OS
+
+
+
YEARLY
DIEEERENC
_
.11
.07
.12
<+ *03
+ .22
+
1.19
- 1.32
- 1.35
- 1.39
- 1.36
- 1.31
- 1.16
- *69
- •*+7
.U6
- .lH
+ .OS
+ .15
+ .13
.06
.26
.07
+ .26
+ •37
+ .35
- *02
™ .01
+
+
.21
.19
.07
.03
+
+
-
.11+
IJZk
Jan.
EeL.
Mar.
.Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep*
Oct.
Nov.
Dec*
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIEEERENCE
~
+
.02
.02
.06
.09
*09
.02
=— —
5.63
-‘.05
~ .04
5.61
- .02
+ .02
.OS
.07
.15
.16
.26
.140
.w
.1+6
.1+7
127
MOODY'S BOND YIELD AVERAGES
120 DOMESTIC CORPORATION BONDS
BY RATINGS
(ALL 120 BONDS)
(continued)
1925
Jan*
Fet>.
Mar.
Apr.
May.
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1?26
Jan.
Fe*b.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1?27
Jan.
Fet>.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
MONTHLY
INDEX
5 .6 0
5 .5^
5 .5 ^
5 .5^
s.to
5 .to
5 .to
5 .to
5-to
5 .to
5 .to
5.to
5.3®+
5.29
5.31
5.25
5.17
5 .1 6
5.17
5.1S
5.18
5.18
5 .1 H
5.10
5 .0 6
5.07
5.03
U .9 8
M s
5 .0 0
5 .0 0
MONTHLY
DXFFBHEHCE
- .01
- .0 6
+
+
«
+
+
+
-.09
.05
.OU
*oH
.03
.02
.01
.02
,0 6
.05
.02
.0 6
.08
.01
.01
.01
~
-—
.ok
.ok
- .ok
■*- .01
- .ok
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
+ .08
M5
M3
M 9
to 86
to 83
~ .03
- .ok
- .0 3
- .2 k
- .27
- .2 k
- .21
- ,21
+ .02
-
.26
.25
*23
.29
.28
.2 k
~ -27
+ .02
~
- .05
— + .02
-- .05
- .02
YEARLY
DIFFERENCE
- .41
- M
- .kz
- ,ko
- .**3
- *39
- .26
+ .01
+ .02
-
.30
*27
.25
.28
.30
- .28
- .22
- .28
- *27
- *19
- .16
- *17
- *23
- *25
- .29
- .28
- *27
128
MOODY* S BOM) YIELD AVERAGE
120 DOMESTIC CORPORATION BONDS
BY RATINGS
(ALL 120 BONDS)
(continued)
192S
Jan.
EeL.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
192 ?
Jan.
Eel).
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1950
Jan.
Eelo.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
MONTHLY
INDEX
4.S3
U.S3
U.S2
|*.S3
U.8S
H.99
5.02
5 .01+
5 .0 2
5 .0 0
fc.97
5 .0 1
5 .0 ^
5 .0 s
5 .1 6
5 .1 6
5 .1 6
5 .2 5
5 .2 5
5 .3 0
5. 3*
5 .3 2
5.27
5.17
5.17
5.18
5.08
5.05
5 .0 H
5.05
5.02
^.97
H .9 2
5.02
5.17
5.38
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
-- - .01
+ .01
+ .05
+ .11
+ *03
+ .02
- .02
- .02
- .01
4 .04
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIEEERENCE
4 .22
— |
4*
+
4
+
+
4 .01
4 .10
i
r
.01
.10
.03
.01
.01
.03
.05
.05
*10
.15
.21
*2?
.24
.21
.15
.11
.01
.02
.09
»09
.11
At .14
4 .IS
+ -37
+ .09
*05
.0 ^
*02
.05
.10
"
“
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
+
+
+
4
4
4
4 .03
4 .04
+ .OS
+
+
.
-
YEARLY
DIEEEREN
.21
.25
.34
-33
.28
.26
.23
.26
.32
4 .32
4-.30
4 .16
4 .13
+ .01
4M
+
.OS
.11
.12
.20
.23
.33
.42
.30
.10
.21
129
MOODY1S BOND YIELD AVERAGES
120 DOMESTIC CORPORATION BONDS
BY RATINGS
(ALL 120 BONDS)
(continued)
MONTHLY
MONTHLY
1931__________ INDEX_______DIEEERENCE
Jan.
5.20
.is
Eel.
5.20
Mar.
5*20
Apr.
5.35
4 .15
May
5.%
♦ .1 3
June
.09
4
5.57
—
.10
July
5*%
Aug.
5 .6 5
4 .IS
6 .0 0
Serp.
4 .35
* •62
Oct.
6 -62
6 .6 0
.02
Nov.
Dec.
4 •S3
7.^3
1222
— .56
Jan.
6 .8 7
_ a0k
6 .8 3
Eel.
_ .21
Mar.
6 .6 2
Apr.
+ .69
7.31
May
7-91*
4 .63
June
S.01
4 .07
_
July
7.69
— .2U
6 .U5
Aug.
6.08
Sep.
•37
Oct.
6 .1 2
+ .Ok
Nov.
6.2H
4 .12
Dec.
6 .3 1
4 .07
1935
Jan.
Eel.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
5 .9 s
6 .1 3
6.H6
6.6U
6 .0 2
5 .6 3
5.35
5 .3 ^
5.57
5 .6 U
6 .0 2
5-93
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIEEERENCE
4
*37
4
1 .1 5
4
.S3
4 1.39
4
.23
•33
4 .15
4 •33
.62
_ •39
•
— .28
.01
4 *23
4 .07
4 •3s
- .09
4
4
4
4
4
4
.to
.52
.^5
.68
l.OS
1.5S
4
4 •^3
4 2.05
1.67
1 .6 3
1 .U2
1 .9 6
2 .U6
4 2.kk
4 2.22
4
.SO
.OS
4
b
.50
c
u .36
- 1.12
4
4
4
4
4
_
4 .IS
YEARLY
DIEEERENCE
4
.03
.02
4
.12
4
4
.66
—
-
4
.68
-
.89
.70
.16
1.27
1.92
2 .3 S
2 .3U
1.11
.51
.kg
.22
•38
130
MOODY *S BOND YIELD AVERAGES
120 DOMESTIC CORPORATION BONDS
BY RATINGS
(ALL 120 BONDS)
(continued)
1931*
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1955
Jan.
Neb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug*
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1936
Jan.
Eeb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov*
Dec.
MONTHLY
INDEX
5.52
3 .1 0
5*02
lt.8 7
U .8 5
H.Sl
It.81
H .9 6
5-03
H .9 2
it.86
H.79
MONTHLY
DIEEERENCE
- .4l
- .42
- .OS
- .15
- .0 2
- .04
t .15
4 .07
- .11
- .06
- .07
.11
.OS
.06
.02
.0 9 .
H.6 S
lt.6 0
U. 66
lt.6 *t
^•55
lt.M-7
it.uo
^ .39
jt.3 6
>t.3lt
lt.27
lt.19
4
-
U.oU
- .15
- .09
3.95
3*95
3.97
3 .9 6
3 .9 H
3 .9 0
3.S5
3*79
3*75
3-71
3*67
+
-
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIEEERENCE
4
* .22
4
.06
.OS
.07
.01
.03
.02
.07
.OS
.02
.01
.02
.64
.05
.06
.04
.04
.04
■f .02
YEARLY
DIEEERENI
- .46
- 1 .0 3
- 1.44
- 1.77
- 1 .1 7
- .82
- .54
- .3 ?
- .54
- .72
- 1 .1 6
- i.l4
- .84
- .50
- .36
“ .23
- .30
- .34
- .41
- .57
- .67
- .52
- .59
- .60
-
.64
.65
.71
.67
.59
.53
.50
.54
.57
.59
.56
.52
131
MOODY1S BOND YIELD AVERAGES
120 DOMESTIC CORPORATION BONDS
BY RATINGS
(ALL 120 BONDS)
1221
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
122s
Jan.
Eeb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
MONTHLY
INDEX
3-67
3.75
3* *7
3.97
3.91
3.90
3 .8 S
3 .SS
3.9S
4 .1 2
U.21
U.l6
U .19
U.23
U .3 6
U .50
U.2S
U.Uo
U .17
U .09
u.17
U .0 3
3-95
3-95
MONTHLY
DIEEERENCE
—
4 .OS
4 .12
+ .10
- .0 6
- .01
- .02
-- 4 .10
4 .iU
*4 .09
- .05
4
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIEEERENCE
4
YEARLY
DIEEERENCE
- -37
- .20
- .OS
-30
- .05
- .oU
4 -33
- .02
4 -03
4 -19
* -37
+ -50
r. .U9
+
.03
b .04
b .13
4
-52
.US
4 .U9
+ .14
- .22
+ .3 ^
+ .12
- *23
.OS
4 .OS
- .1U
- .OS
1
.12
* .os
4 .53
4 -37
4 .50
4 .29
+ .21
4 .19
4 *09
- .26
- .21
-AMOUNT
Maximum Monthly Decline
+ .S3
Second Largest Monthly Decline4 .69
DATE
December 1931
April 1932
DURATION
1 month
1 month
Maximum Decline "by Consecutive
Months
+ 1.39
Second Largest Monthly Decline
by Consecutive Months 4 1.15
ipr.-June 1932
3 months
Aug.-Oct. 1931
3 months
Maximum Yearly Decline
4 2.U6
Second Largest Yearly Decline + 2.UU
May to May 1931-32 1 year
June to June 1931“32 1 year
132
MOODY* S BOND YIELD AVERAGES
120 DOMESTIC CORPORATION BONDS
BY RATINGS
(Aaa
1211
MONTHLY
INDEX
MONTHLY
DIEEERENCE
5.35
5.35
.0 5
.05
.01
5.39
3.HO
5.^
.oh
5*5^
.0 6
.12
.07
5.66
5.73
5.26
5.75
4 .02
4 .11
5.92
4
6 .3^
6.30
6.22
6.05
6.os
6.26
.08
.17
.03
.18
+
4
4
5.60
5.50
.ho
+ .51
4
4
4
+
4
4.
.sU
4. .21
.12
.06
4
.62
4
.51
4
.h2
4
.53
4
4
4
.05
.07
•06
-
•06
_
.09
.24
—
-
.10
•60
.86
4 .92
I .90
4 .7*
4
.02
4
•53
4
.oh
S.ih
5.99
5.!
-f .21
.06
.12
.21
.13
.04
6.0s
6.0s
6.06
6.11
6.1s
6.12
+ .09
.12
5.60
6.32
YEARLY
DIFFERENCE
.oh
5.56
6.25
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIEEERENCE
.oh
?:S
6 .0U
BONDS)
4
+ .12
—
•39
.22
.16
.02
.ih
.20
.22
.31
.29
.21
M
.76
133
MOODY’S BOND YIELD AVERAGES
120 DOMESTIC CORPORATION BONDS
BY RATINGS
(Aaa BOOTS)
(continued)
192k
.oU
*03
.11
*01+
.0 6
.01
.01
•06
4 .OU
- .01
.02
4 .16
YEARLY
DIEFERENC
.SO
•79
- .35
«. .91
- .93
- 1.10
- 1.12
- 1 .0 3
- 1.00
.37
.51
- .U2
-
4
.IS
4
+
4
4
4
.OU
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
.
..
_
.01
.02
.0*+
.05
4
.01
-
.. .o*+
•
—
1—wn
-
- .03
+ .02
+ .01
O
.
5 .0 9
5 .0 9
5 .1 0
5.08
5 .01+
M 9
M 5
M 5
M 5
M 2
M*+
M 5
4
4
+
_
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIEEERENCE
+
Jan.
Eeb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug,
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
5 .0 H
5 .0 7
5 .1 s
5 .2 2
5 .1 6
5 .1 5
5 .1 U
5 .0 s
5 .1 2
5 .1 1
5 .0 9
5 .0 9
MONTHLY
DIEFEBENCE
- .16
- .05
- ,0 6
.08
- .02
**» .05
- .OS
“* .01+
- .03
4 .04
4 .12
~ .01
-
.30
.22
.05
.07
.03
.07
.lU
.12
.14
0 I
H 1
1922
Jan.
Eeb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1923
Jan.
Eeb.
Mar*
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
MONTHLY
INDEX
5.3*
5.29
5.23
5.15
5.13
5.0S
5.00
H .9 6
u .9 3
1+.97
5 .0 9
5 .0 s
.0 5
.02
.OS
.11+
.12
.16
.19
•13
.17
.19
.15
.11+
I3ij.
MOODY*S BOND YIELD AVERAGES
CORPORATION BONDS
BY RATINGS
120 DOMESTIC
(Aaa BONDS)
(continued)
1925
Jan.
Feb.
Max.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
...
MONTHLY
INDEX
4.95
*+-95
M l
U.87
M 3
M
M
3
7
Mo
U.S7
M5
MU
M5
1926
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1927
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
■Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
M 2
M7
U.79
M U
M i
U.72
M i
U.72
U.72
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
--
+
♦
+
.01+
*
*
*
+
.03
.05
.03
.03
.02
.01
.01
.02
.05
.03
.01
.01
.01
.os
4 .07
4 .01
.05
.OS
.07
.10
.10
4 .02
.13
.IS
.12
.13
+ .01
4 .01
U.66
U.67
U.62
U.5S
U.57
U.58
U.60
U.56
U.5U
U.51
U.U9
U.U6
+
4
.02
.01
.12
.11
.16
.IS
.15
.11+
.16
.17
——
M i
TEAELT
DIFFERENCE
- .ib
.iH
.19
.21
.21
•16
- .oU
- .0*+
- .0*+
„ *01
- .03
U.68
U.68
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
•l6
.05
.01+
.10
.17
.16
.01
.01
.02
.01+
.02
.lU
.12
.16
.IS
+
- .03
~ .02
- .03
4 .01
.ll+
4 .03
.20
.19
.02
MOODY'S BOND YIELD AVERAGES
120 DOMESTIC CORPORATION BONDS
BY EATI1TG-S
(Asa BONDS)
(continued)
192S
Jan#
Eeb.
Mar.
Apr#
May
June
Jul.
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1222.
Jan.
Eeb.
Mar,
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep •
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1950
Jan.
Eeb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dee.
MONTHLY
INDEX
4.46
4.46
4.46
4.46
4.49
4.57
4.61
4.64
4.6l
4 .6 1
4 .5 s
4 .6 1
4 .6 2
4.66
4.70
4.69
4.70
4.77
4.77
4.79
4.80
4-77
4 .7 6
MONTHLY
DHTEBEHCE
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIEEERENCE
+
.03
+ .OS
+ .0^
+ .03
- .03
+ .IS
YEARLY
DIEEERENCE
- .20
- .21
- .16
- .12
- .OS
*-■ .01
4 .01
+ .OS
•1 .OS
+ .10
- .03
- .03
t .09
+ .15
1 .01
4 .16
4 .20
+ .2U
4 •23
4 .21
4 .20
4 .16
4 .15
H .19
4 .16
4 .IS
i .06
* .0U+ .ok
4 .09
~ .01
4 .01
+ .07
--
t .02
+ .01
U.67
. .03
^ .01
- .0 9
4.66
4.69
4.62
4.60
4.60
4.57
4 .5 2
4.47
4.42
4.42
4.47
4.52
- .01
+ .03
- .07
- .02
-- .03
- .05
- .05
- .05
— + .05
4 .05
4
.11
4 .03
4 .oH
+ .03
.os
•*-
•09
.10
.20
•25
.32
-
f .10
.35
.29
- .15
136
MOODY!S BOND YIELD AVERAGES
120 DOMESTIC CORPORATION BONDS
BY RATINGS
(Aaa BONDS)
(continued)
1931 ____
Jan,
Fe"b.
Mar*
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec,
1?32
Jan.
Fet>.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug*
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1222
Jan.
Fet).
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug,
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
MONTHLY
INDEX
b .k z
b.b?
^•39
U.So
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
- .10
4 .01
- .ob
>+.55
4 .01
- .0 3
- .01
-— »
4 .oh
* .1 ?
1+.9 H
5.32
- .05
■i1 .3 ^
5 .2 0
3-23
4 .9 s
5.17
5*36
5.Hi
5*26
H.si
U .70
- .1 2
4 .01
- .25
+ .19
4- .19
+ *05
- .15
- .39
_ .21
- .06
- .01
1
H .3 6
U .16
b.Sb
b .63
^*59
- .ob
b.bb
b.bZ
- *15
4 .Ob
4- .20
4 .10
- .15
- .1?
+ .10
- .06
i .06
- .02
4 .20
U. 6S
U. 7S
^ .63
H.H6
^ .3 6
H .30
H .36
b.?b
U. 5I+
U .50
- .ob
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
4 .01
4 .01
+ -63
+ .3s
4 *01
+ **+3
YEARLY
DIFFERED
- . 2b
- .26
- .23
- .20
~ .23
- .21
- .16
- .07
4 *13
4 *57
4- .^7
4 .SO
4 .7S
4 .SO
4 .39
4 .77
4 .99
41.05
4 .90
4 *51
4 *15
- *35
- .31
- *73
- *IS
+ .3^
+ .10
■* .06
4 .20
-
*75
.30
*39
*73
*95
.90
.61
*3^
.30
.09
.09
137
MOODY'S BOND YIELD AVERAGES
120 DOMESTIC CORPORATION BONDS
BY RATINGS
(Aaa BONDS)
(continued)
193^
Jan.
Fel.
Mar.
Apr.*
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nor.
Dec.
1935
Jan.
FeL.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
MONTHLY
INDEX
^•35
U .2 0
**.13
i+.07
**.01
3*93
3*S9
3.93
3.96
3.90
3 .S6
3*S1
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
- .15
- .15
- .07
- .0 6
“» .06
- .OS
- .0 *+
♦ .0 **
+ .03
- .06
- .0 **
- .0 5
3.77
3.69
3.67
3 .6 6
3.65
3 .6 1
3.56
3 .6 0
3.59
3.52
3.^7
3 .1*1*
4
.0*4.OS
.02
.01
.01
.oH
.0 5
.oU
.01
- .07
- .05
- .03
3.37
3.32
3.29
3.29
3.27
3 .2 U
3.23
3.21
3.1S
- .07
- .0 5
- .0 3
m k
Jan.
Fet>.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
3 .1s
3.15
3.10
—
.0 2
.03
.01
.02
.03
—
- .03
- .0 5
-
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
4 .07
+ .oU
YEA B M
DIFFERED
- .09
- .28
- .55
- .71
™ *62
*53
- .^7
“
*?7
- .5o
** .6S
- .69
- .58
- *51
ma (
- .**1
- .36
- *32
- *33
- *33
- .37
- .38
- *39
- *37
.Mo
* .37
-
- .3s
- .37
» .3s
- .37
- .33
- .41
- .3*
- .32
- *3^
138
MOODY'S BOND YIELD AVERAGES
120 DOMESTIC CORPORATION BONDS
BY RATINGS
(Aaa BONDS)
(continued)
1957
J an •
Feb.
Mar*
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
w*
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug •
Sep*
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
MONTHLY
INDEX
3*10
3-22
3.32
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
—
-
4
+
4
-
.12
.10
3.42
3.33
3.2S
3.25
3*24
3 .2s
.10
.09
- .05
- .03
mm .01
+ *o4
3.27
- .01
~ .03
- .03
3*24
3.21
3*17
3.20
3*22
3*30
3*22
3*26
3.22
3 *1S
3*21
3*15
3.10
3.05
_ .o4
4 .03
4. .02
+ .os
- .os
+ .04
: .oh
_ ,o4
4
»03
- .06
- .05
- .02
AMOUNT
+ .44
,3&
Maximum Mon tilly Decline
Second Largest Monthly Decline
4
Maximum Decline by Consecutive
Months
+ .84
Second Largest Monthly Decline
by Consecutive Months
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
4 ,6 3
Maximum Yearly Decline
+ 1.05
Second Largest Yearly Decline f .99
4
.32
4
.01*
YEARLY
DIFFERED
- .27
- .10
.03
.13
♦ .06
4 .04
4 .02
4
4
4
.03
+ .10
4 .09
4 .09
4 .11
4 .07
- .02
4 .05
+ .04
4 »03
- .10
- .12
- .11
* .02
- .03
- .06
- *07
- .12
- .14
- *13
DATE
October 1931
December 1931
DURATION
1 month
1 month
November 1919*
June 1920
S months
Aug.-Oct. 1931
3 months
June to June 1931-32 1 year
May to May 1931-32
1 year
139
MOODY1S BOND YIELD AVERAGES
120 DOMESTIC CORPORATION BONDS
BY RATINGS
(Aa BONDS)
1919
Jan.
Feb*
Mar*
Apr*
May
June
July
Aug*
Sep*
Oct.
Nov.
Dec*
1920
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr*
May
June
July
Aug*
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1921
Jan.
Feb*
Mar*
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
MONTHLY
INDEX
5.75
5.79
5-76
5. so
5-75
5-71
5-76
5-S5
5-96
5-90
6.02
6.21
M0MHL1
DIFFER®;
4 .oU
.03
4 .04
- .05
•04
4 •05
‘ 4 .09
•4 •11
.. .0 6
4 .12
4 .19
6.19
6.2S
6.1*2
6 .5 U
6. 7s
6-79
6.69
6.76
6.65
6.56
6 .6 3
6.84
6 .6 4
6 .6 0
6.59
6.68
6.69
6.76
6 .7 s
6 .64
6 .5 6
6.%
4
4
.02
.09
.14
•12
•2U
•01
.10
•07
.11
•09
•07
.21
w
.20
mm
.oU
4
4
4
4
4
+
4
4
4
4
mm
6.18
5-95
mm
.01
*09
.01
•07
.02
,lU
• OS
*09
•29
.23
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
YEARLY
DIFFERENCE
4 .OU
.
4 0*1
4 .25
+ -31
.UU
•66
.7*+
1*03
1.0s
•93
4 .60
4
*07
.91
.69
•66
.61
.63
.'45
*32
-
4
.19
-1?
.1^
.09
.03
4 *09
.12
-
.09
- .09
-
.^5
.29
i4o
MOODY1S BOND YIELD AVERAGES
120 DOMESTIC CORPORATION BONDS
3Y RATINGS
(Aa BONDS)
(continued)
1922
Jan.
Eel.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug..
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1925
Jan.
Eel.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
192^
Jan.
Eel.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
MONTHLY
INDEX
5.9^
5.S0
5.79
5.71
5*62
5.6k
5.57
5M
5-35
5.36
5-%
5*Ul
5 .U2
5^9
5*62
5.73
5*66
5*66
5*63
5.63
5.65
5.65
5*63
5.63
5*55
5.52
5*57
5.56
5M
5*^3
5.3S
5.3S
5.3S
5.35
5*32
5.31
MONTHLY
DIEEERENCE
- .01
-
,l k
- .01
.. .OS
~ .09
+ .02
- .07
- .13
- .09
* .01
♦ •09
„ .oU
♦
+
♦
4
-
.01
.07
*13
.11
.07
♦ .03
« .0 6
♦ .02
— ~
.. .0 2
——
♦
-
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIEEERENCE
.os
.03
*05
.01
.07
.0 6
.0 5
—
-
-- *03
- .03
- .01
4 .02
4 .10
4 .32
4 .03
\ .02
YEARLY
DIEEERENCE
- .70
- .SO
- .so
- .97
-1 .0 7
»1.12
-1.21
-1.20
-1.21
-1.11
" *73
- .54
♦
4
4
4
+
4
4
4
4
4
4
.05
4
-
-
.52
*31
.17
.02
.OH
.02
.12
.19
.30
.29
.IS
.22
.13
.03
.05
-17
.17
.23
.31
.25
.27
-30
-31
.32
MOODY*S BOND YIELD AVERAGES
120 DOMESTIC CORPORATION BONDS
BY RATINGS
(Aa BONDS)
(continued)
1925
Jan*
FeL*
Mar,
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1926
Jan.
Fe“b.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1327
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep,
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
MONTHLY
INDEX
5*30
5.25
5.2^
5. 2k
5 .1 9
5 .1 5
5 .1 7
5.21
5.18
5.17
5.1^
5.lW
MONTHLY
DIEFEEEliCE
- .01
- .05
- .01
-- .05
- .oh
+ .02
+ .Oh
» .03
- .01
- .03
5.07
5.0U
5.05
^.99
H.9 U
^.92
H.95
^.95
H .97
M 5
^•93
1+.S9
~ .07
- .03
4- *01
- .0 6
- .0 5
- .0 2
+ .03
— + .02
- .02
- .02
- .oh
U.S7
H .87
H.S3
U.80
^•79
It.SO
- .02
—
- .oU
- .03
- .01
+ .01
— - .07
_
- .01
- .0 ^
- .03
u.so
{*•73
^.73
^ .69
k.S5
k .62
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
4 .0 6
+ .01
+ .05
YEARLY
DIFFERENC
—
.25
- .27
- 03
- .32
- .30
- .28
- .21
- *17
.20
- .IS
- .18
W. .17
.23
- .21
.19
- .25
- .25
.23
- .22
- .26
'■ .21
- .22
.21
... *25
t ■ .20
+ .01
. •17
- .22
- .19
- .15
-■ .12
* .13
.2U
-■ .2h
_ .26
_ .28
-- •27
MOODY'S B03STD YIELD AVERAGES
120 DOMESTIC CORPORATION BONDS
BY EATINGS
(Aa BONDS)
(continued)
192s
Jan*
EeL.
Mar*
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
MONTHLY
INDEX
4.61
4.61
4.59
4.60
4.64
4.75
4.79
4.S2
4.79
4.7S
4.75
4.77
MONTHLY
DOTEHENCE
- .01
■Mipmifct
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIEEERENCE
.26
.26
B .2U
.20
-
«
.01
+ *01
4 .03
4 .11
-
+
+
+
.Oif
.03
.01
.01
.03
YEARLY
DIEFERENC
-
-
- .01
4
.22
.02
4
.09
4
.06
4
.09
4
.10
.15
4
1929
Jan.
EeL.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec*
1220
Jan.
EeL.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
4.79
4.S6
4.92
4.91
4.91
4.9S
4.97
4.99
5.01
5.01
4.94
4.S4
4.S6
4.89
4. SO
4.78
4.77
4 .7 6
4 .7 !+
4.6S
4.65
4.67
4.75
4.S5
4 .02
4 .07
+ *06
- .01
♦
.07
- .01
4 .02
♦ .02
4
4 .17
4
.07
•is
4 .25
4 •33
4 •3i
4 •27
4 •23
4 .18
4 .0^
.07
- .10
+ .02
+ ,03
» .09
- .02
*15
*05
4
.17
4
4
.
4
.12
•23
4
4
♦
.05
4
•19
•07
.07
.03
.12
- .14
.22
-
... .01
.01
... .02
-
~ .06
— •31
. .03
+ .02
+ .08
* .10
—
—
.36
.3^
•19
4
.01
4
.20
.23
l53
MOODY*S BOOT) YIELD AVERAGES
120 DOMESTIC CORPORATION BOOTS,
BY RATINGS
(Aa BOOTS)
(continued)
1931
Jan.
Feb*
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep*
Oct*
Nov*
Dec,
1222
Jan.
Feb.
Mar*
Apr.
MONTHLY
INDEX
k. 70
5.70
5.67
5.76
H .7 6
5. Si
5. Si
5.25
3.0S
5*57
5 .6 1
6 .2 6
6.0S
6 .1 3
' 5*^5
6 .1 1
6 .3s
6 .6 0
6 .5 1
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1933
Jan.
Feb.
Mar,
5.23
5.55
5.51
5.57
5*60
Apr,
5*21
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
5.50
5.30
5.35
5*61
5.09
5.23
5,77
5.36
5.97
5*35
5-27
MONTHLY
DIFFEREl
- .05
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
~ .03
4 *09
4
*05
4 .05
4 *2S
4 *53
4 *04
4- .65
»« *15
+ #05
- .22
.26
.27
4 *22
« .09
YEARLY
DIFFERENCE
‘ ” “ 6—
- .19
- .13
- .02
- .01
♦ .05
4 .07
4 .17
4 .53
4 .90
4
* 1.65
4 .05
.26
l.5i
4
4 1.32
+ 1*5-3
1.12
1.35
1.62
4
4
4 *75
.62
i*7§
- .29
- .03
4 .06
4 *03
4 *46
- .06
- *o5
- *66
4 *09
- ,30
. .0 5
+ .2 6
_
-
4
* .20
~
.51
*31
.26
.0 6
•51
1.51
-
- 1.68
- 1.06
4 -IS
-
4, .01
-
4
-
.38
- .02
.78
*7f
*25
.30
*9S
.53
*55
.22
- -33
Ikk
MOODY* S BOND YIELD AVERAGES
120 DOMESTIC CORPORATION BONDS
BY RATING-S
(Aa BONDS)
(continued)
193^
Jan,
Feb.
Mar,
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug,
Sep,
Oct,
Nov,
Dec,
1935
Jan.
EeL.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec,
19 J6
Jan.
Feb.
Mar,
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
MONTHLY
INDEX
5 .0 0
U .7 0
U.55
U.U3
U.37
M o
U .2 S
U.3 U
U.U2
U .3 6
U.2 S
U.27
U .21
U .13
U.ll
U.OS
U .0 3
3.99
3-39
3*37
3**5
3.32
3*73
3.65
3.57
3.55
3-55
3.57
3.53
3.51
3 .Us
3 .UU
3 .U1
3*37
3.31
3.23
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
- *27
- .30
- *15
- ,12
- .0 6
- .07
- .02
+ .0 6
+ .OS
- .0 6
- .OS
- .01
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
+ .lU
YEABE’S
DIFFERED
- *30
- 1 .1 6
- 1 .3 S
1 .0 3
- .79
- •55
- .U3
•54
.61
- 1 .0 7
1 .0 0
-
~ .0 6
- .OS
- .02
.03
.05
,oU
,10
.0 2
.02
.03
.09
- ,0 S
—
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
r~
-
-
—
.OS
.0 2
-
_
-
-
.02
,oU
.02
.03
.04
.03
.04
.06
.03
•3U
•31
.47
*57
*5U
*55
.62
~
„
-
•?7
.UU
-
-
-
.79
*
.02
—
.
Vi
-
.53
*53
•51
*50
.us
.Ui
•ft
.UU
.U5
.U2
*37
145
MOODY'S BOND YIELD AVERAGES
120 DOMESTIC COEPORATION BONDS
BY EATINGS
(Aa BONDS)
(continued)
Jan.
Eeh.
Mar* ■
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
3.50
3.51
3.56
3-73
3.56
3.62
3.62
3-57
3.60
3-53
3 .U6
3 .U2
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
♦ .02
+ .10
+ *10
+ .07
- .09
- .05
- .02
+
♦
+
-
.05
.07
.01
.04
♦
4♦
♦
+
-
.01
.05
.17
.17
,12
,06
.05
•03
.07
.07
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIEFEBSNCE
•
ro
1937
Jan*
Eel*
Mar*
Apr*
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct*
Nov.
Dec.
MONTHLY
INDEX
3*30
3 .S0
3-50
3-57
3.HS
3.^3
3.Hi
3.Hi
3.H6
3-53
3.5H
3.50
♦ .13
♦ -23
+ .12
♦ .03
Maximum Decline "by Consecutive
+1 .64
Mon ths
Second Largest Monthly Decline
by Consecutive Months + .75
Maximum Yearly Decline
Second Largest Yearly Decline
+
+
♦
+
.05
.OS
.07
.03
.05
.16
.23
.22
♦
♦
+
♦
.20
.11
.06
*16
+ .os
♦
*
*•*
+
.25
.21
.16
.16
—
- .OS
- .OS
- ,o4
AMOUNT
Maximum Monthly Decline
* .65
Second Largest Monthly Decline ■* *49
YEARLY
DIFFERED
- -27
- -15
- .05
* DATE
December 1531
October 1931
DURATION
1 month
1 month
Apr.-Dec. 1931
9 months
Apr.-June 1932
+i<79 June $6 June 1331-32
+1*79 July To July 1931“32
3 months
1 7ear
1 year
ll|6
MOODY'S BOND YIELD AVERAGES
120 DOMESTIC CORPORATION BONDS
BY RATINGS
(A BONDS)
i m
Jan*
Feb.
Mar*
Apr,
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct,
Nov.
Dec.
MONTHLY
INDEX
b.42
6.U5
6M
6 .U0
6*35
6.26
6.26
6.UU6.56
6.52
6.70
6.91
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
4
+
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
*03
.03
YEARLY
DIFFERENCE
.06
- .02
- ,05
- .09
+ .12
4 .12
- .oU
4 .12
♦ .30
.21
♦ *39
4
1920
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct,
Nov.
Dec.
6.22
7.15
7*11
7.3U
- .03
4 .27
- *oU
4
+ .U9
7*56
*23
.26
- ,02
7.62
4
,oU
7*69
4
.07
7*60
7 .us
7.3^
7.%
7.71
4
4
- .21
- .lU
4 .11
4 .26
4
.27
+
7.52
7*50
7*53
7*53
7.50
7*5S
7*53
7*43
7*23
7*03
6.62
6.39
-
4 .91
4 .11
4 .32
4 *22
+ ®3 (
*19
- .02
*03
4
4 .75
4 .20
4
+ .03
__—
- .03
4
.'OS
~
.05
.10
.20
.20
,Ul
.23
.6
+ 1.23
+ 1.32
+1.36
41.25
1921
Jan*
Feb,
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep*
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
,U6
+ .70
.6U
*35
4
4 *42
4 .19
-
.10
4 .02
- .09
- .26
- *25
- *31
- .23
- 1*32
147
MOODY* S BOND YIELD AVERAGES
120 DOMESTIC CORPORATION BONDS
BY RATINGS
(A BONDS)
(continued)
1922
Jan.
Eet>.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1923
Jan.
Eel.
Mar.
Ap r.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1924
J an.
Eet>.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep,
Oct,
Nov.
Dec.
MONTHLY
INDEX
6.41
6.33
6.22
6.05
5.93
5.9-7
5*68
5.35
5-79
5.91
5.99
6.04
6.o4
6.07
6.24
6.25
6.17
6.19
6.21
6.06
6.15
6.23
6.22
6.20
6.16
6.16
6.10
6.09
6.00
5.90
5*79
5.64
5*33
5*73
5-72
5*72
MONTHLY
DIEEERENI
4 .02
- .06
- .11
- .17
- .12
4 .04
- .09
- .03
- .06
4 .12
4 .08
4 *05
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIEEERENCE
4 .02
YEARLY
DIEEERENCE
-
1.11
-1.17
-11 '?1
.
i.4s
4 .o4
-1.57
~i.6i
- 1.65
- 1.58
-l.44
1.12
.63
-
4
.25
- .35
•37
_
4
4
4
4
4
4
+
. -
.03
.17
.01
.06
*02
.02
,15
.09
.08
.01
.02
- .04
.02
- .08
- ,01
- .09
- .10
- .11
4 .05
- ,01
- .05
- .06
——
4
+ .21
.26
* .02
4 .20
* .24
+ .22
.04
4 *33
4
.17
.21
4 >36
4 -32
4 .23
+ .16
4
.02
4
4. .12
4»
.05
4*U
«
_
«
~
.
.14
.16
.17
.29
.42
-
*22
2
5
.50
.48
li+8
MOODY*S BOOT) YIELD AVERAGES
120 DOMESTIC CORPORATION BONDS
BY EATING-S
(A BONDS)
(continued)
1925
Jan*
Ee"b.
Man*
lapr*
May
June
July
Aug*
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
MONTHLY
DIEEERENCE
* .02
- .09
+ .05
- .03
- .17
- .02
+ .07
+ *05
- .03
♦ .01
- .03
- .05
5.32
5.33
5.3$5.2?
5.15
5.15
5.21
5.23
5.23
5.23
5.17
5 .1 6
+
-
5.11
5.13
5.12
- .05
4 .02
- .01
- .06
•* .01
4 .01
- .02
- .03
5.06
5*05
5 .0 6
5.0**
5.01
5.01
H.97
1+.9 U
4.92
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIEEERENCE
4
.05
+ .12
+ .01
♦ .05
- .04
- .03
- .02
-M
- .54
.46
- *2 S
- .28
- .24
*3?
.21
- .26
-
.28
.32
.36
.28
.26
*30
*33
.30
- .3 U
- .30
- .0 6
- .01
......
- .57
- M
- *32
.OS
.05
.01
.07
.09
+ .03
♦ .02
YEARLY
DIEEERENCE
-\Ti3r
H
O.
J an.
Eeb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov*
Dec.
1927
Jan.
Eet).
Max.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
MONTHLY
INDEX
5*70
5.61
5*66
5.63
5M>
5.*&
5.51
5.56
5.53
5.54
5*51
5.^6
«. .02
4
.01
~
-
.27
.20
.22
.21
.13
.12
.17
.22
.22
.26
.23
.24
li£
MOODY*S BOND YIELD AVERAGES
120 DOMESTIC CORPORATION BONDS
BY RATINGS
(A BONDS)
(continued)
192s
MONTHLY
INDEX
MONTHLY
DIEEERENCE
Jan.
Eel).
Mar.
-Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
4.91
H.92
M 2
U.91
No?.
M9
5*08
- .01
4 *05
4 .11
4 .02
4 .01
- .03
- .03
- .05
4 .09
Jan.
5.10
4 .02
Teb.
5.1^
5 .2U
5.23
5.24
5*31
5.32
5.39
5.43
5.3S
5-33
4
Dec.
M 6
5.07
5.09
5.10
5*07
5.0H
1311
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
J an.
Eel).
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
- .01
4 .01
4
.01
4 .19
.10
- ,01
+ .25
*01
.07
.01
.07
.OH
YEARLY
DIEEERENCE
.20
- .21
.20
- .15
- .09
4 .01
+ .05
+ .09
+ .06
♦ .07
+ .05
+ .16
+ .19
.OH
4
4
4
4
4
4
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIEEERENCE
4
.20
+
.22
+
4
+
4
+
4
+
.32
.32
.28
.2U
.23
.29
.36
-
.05
- .05
4 .2U
4 .3^
5.21
- .11
4 .13
5.23
5.25
5.15
4 .02
4 .02
5.12
5.07
.OU
- .10
.03
- .05
5.06
4 .01
.02
5.00
4.9^
.06
_ .06
5.06
5.21
+ .12
4 .15
5.^3
4 .22
5.0S
4
4 .13
t .11
- .09
-
4 .01
+ .^9
.11
- .17
- .23
- .26
-.39
- .%
- .32
- .12
4 .22
150
MOODY* S BOND YIELD AVERAGES
120 DOMESTIC CORPORATION BONDS
BY EATINGS
(A BONDS)
(continued)
1231
Jan.
Eel).
Mar.
-Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
No t .
Dec.
1932
Jan.
Fet>.
Mar*
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1932
Jan.
Fe"b.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
MONTHLY
INDEX
5.26
5-29
5.30
5.52
5.65
5-75
5.64
5.33
6.22
6.88
6.20
7.70
MONTHLY
DHTEBBNCE
- .17
♦ .03
♦ .01
+ .22
+ .13
..j. .10
- .11
+ .2H
+ .Hi
4 .59
+ .02
•+ .so
7.06
7.06
6.80
7.4s
8.40
s .50
8.12
6.84
6.45
6.44
6.53
6.61
- .6H
—
- .26
* .68
+ .92
4 *10
- .31
-1.35
- .39
- .01
+ -09
+ •OS
6.16
6.30
6.64
6.85
6.22
5.38
5.53
5.51
5.70
5.76
6.22
6.21
4
4
4
4
+
4
-
.H5
.iH
*3H
.21
.56
.Hi
*30
.07
.19
.06
.H6
.01
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
4 .H9
+2.06
+1.70
♦ «17
4 .69
+ *71
YEARLY
DIFFERENi
+ .03
4 .04
4 .15
4 .HO
4 .58
4 .67
4 .58
4 .SS
41.35
41.S2
41.69
42.27
41,30
41,77
41.50
41.96
42.75
42.25
42.55
4 .96
4 .16
- *HH
- ,37
-1.09
- .90
- .76
- .16
- .63
-2.11
“2.62
-2.61
-1,33
' ,75
“ .68
“ ,31
- .fc
151
MOODY'S BOND YIELD AVERAGES
120 DOMESTIC CORPORATION BONDS
BY EATINGS
(A BONDS)
(continued)
193 U
Jan#
Feb#
Mar*
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug#
Sep#
Oct*
Nov*
Dec.
MONTHLY
INDEX
5.72
5.2U
5.12
U.97
U .9 6
U #96
U.93
5.09
5.17
5*00
U.93
U.S6
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
- .U9
. .US
~ .12
- .15
- .01
.— «
- .03
4 *16
+ .OS
- .17
- .07
- .07
Jan.
Feb.
Mar#
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
U.7 U
U .63
U .67
U.S9
U.59
U .5 2
U.U6
U.U9
u.us
U.U9
H.U5
U.35
+
+
+
*
-
.12
.11
.OH
#02
*10
.07
#06
#03
.01
.01
.oU
.10
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec,
U .21
U .12
u .10
u .1 2
U.ll
U .09
U .0 5
3 .9 9
3 .9 U
3*90
3.S5
3-7^
„
4*
.
.lU
.09
.02
.02
.01
.02
.OU
.06
.05
,04
.05
.07
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
+ #2U
YEARL1
DIFFERE1
- .44
- 1 .0 6
- 1.52
l.SS
- 1*33
- *92
.65
- .U2
.53
- .76
1 .2 9
- 1-35
-
-
.
.98
- .61
.U5
_ •2S
•?7
-
+ .06
+ *03
* .01
„
„
.53
.51
.57
- .57
_ ♦Us
.U3
.Ui
.50
•5U
— .59
.60
.57
—
—
+ .0 2
.4 4
•U7
.60
.69
.51
•Us
.51
t-
15Z
MOODY *S BOND YIELD AVERAGES
120 DOMESTIC CORPORATION BONDS
BY RATINGS
(A BONDS)
(continued)
1937
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct,
Nov,
Dec.
193S
J an *
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep .
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
MONTHLY
INDEX
3.77
3.85
3.97
M-.OU
3.9S
3.9,6
3.9^
3.9^
H.02
H .16
^.20
14-.20
H.2U
U.3U
4.28
4.4i
4.21
4.13
4.20
4.0S
4.02
4.02
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
- .01
4 .OS
4 .12
4 .07
- .06
- .02
- .02
—
4 .OS
4 .l4
4 .OS
- .04
4 .04
4 ,10
4 .15
- .21
4 .13
- .20
- .OS
+ .07
- .12
- .06
——
AMOUNT
Maximum Monthly Decline
4 *92
Second Largest Monthly Decline + .£0
Maximum Decline "by Consecutive
Months
4 2*06
Second Largest Monthly Decline
hy Consecutive Months 4 1*70
Maximum Yearly Decline
Second Largest Yearly Decline
4 2*75
+2*55
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
4 -27
4
.30
YEARLY
DIFFERENCE
- .44
- .27
- .13
- .OS
- .13
- *13
- .11
- .05
4 .OS
4 .26
4 .39
4 M
+ A3
» .39
+ *37
4
*29
4 .%
4 .30
4 .13
4 .07
DATE
May 1932
December 1931
4
.%
4 .27
4 -19
4 .is
- .OS
- .22
- .18
DURATION
1 month
1 month
Aug.-Dec* 193-
5 months
Apr.-June 1932
3 months
May to May 1931“"32
1 y^ar
July to July 1931-32 1 year
153
MOODY *S BOND YIELD AVERAGES
120 DOMESTIC CORPORATION BONDS
BY RATINGS
(Baa BONDS)
1919
Jan*
FeB.
Mar,
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug*
Sep.
Oct,
Nov,
Dec.
1920
Jan.
FeL.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1?21
Jan.
Fe"b.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
MONTHLY
INDEX
7.12
7.20
7*15
7.23
7.09
7*0U
7*06
7*13
7.27
7.3^
7*5^
7.77
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
4 .OS
- .05
4 .OS
*■ *lU
- .05
► *02
4 .07
4 ,iU
4 .07
4 .20
v .23
7.7S
7.9^
4
4
.01
.16
7.97
4
.03
s.17
8*39
4 .20
♦ .22
S.39
s.52
8.3?
s.ib
...
.13
- .13
8,21
+
S.U2
s.55
S.53
8.52
s.56
gM
8.51
8 .3b
S.3I+
7.8S
7.61
.OS
+
.OS
4
.22
*35
+
v
-
.06
.OS
.13
,02
.01
.OU
.OS
4
.03
- .17
- —
-*H6
- .27
YEARL1
DIFFERED
4
.66
4
.7^
4
.82
.9^
t 1.30
4 1*35
4
*
Ij+S
- .25
- .15
s.50
4
-—
+
7.99
s.56
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
4
*57
4 1M
4
1.26
4
4
4
,27
.65
4
*79
4
.82
4
.13
4
4
4
t. *oU
4
.03
4
.67
M
.58
.36
.13
.17
.oh
.12
4
4 .20
Hr *35
*33
*95
MOODY'S BOND YIELD AVERAGES
120 DOMESTIC CORPORATION BONDS
BY RATINGS
(Baa BONDS)
(continued)
1922
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov*
Dec.
1923
J an.
Feb.
Mar,
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
192*1
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
MONTHLY
INDEX
7.70
7.55
7.^5
7 .1 U
6 .8 9
6.97
6 .8 9
6 .S5
6*75
6 .7 s
6 .9 8
7 .0 2
MONTHLY
DIEEERENCE
4 *09
- .15
- .10
- .31
- *25
+ .08
- .08
- .ob
- .10
4 .03
4
4
.08
*20
* .ob
6 .9 s
6.97
7 .0 9
7.17
7.17
7 .2 1
7*3^
7.3S
7*3f
7.%
7**10
7*38
- .ob
7*2^
7*lH
7*08
7*03
6 .9 7
6.82
6.6 7
6.69
6.73
6 .6 2
6.5^
6.U6
+
_
+
♦
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIEEERENCE
4 .09
+ .27
-
+ *59
.1 ^
.10
.0 6
.05
.0 6
*15
.15
.02
+ .ob
- .08
- .08
.72
- *53
- .36
- .03
4 .28
.01
.12
.08
— ..
<!• .oU
4 .23
4 .04
— -I- .08
- .06
- .0 2
YEARIiY
DIEEERENCE
- .80
- *87
-1 .10
-I .39
-I .63
-1 *59
-1 *59
-1 .6 6
-1 *59
-1 *56
- .90
— *59
4 *06
4
4
. zb
.b$
4
4
4
4
4
.53
.63
.68
.b2
.36
4 .26
4 *17
- .01
- .ib
- .20
- .39
- .67
- .69
• .65
.8^
_ .86
• *92
155
MOODY*S BOND YIELD AVERAGES
120 DOMESTIC CORPORATION BONDS
BY RATINGS
(Baa BONDS)
(continued)
1925
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
MONTHLY
INDEX
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
6 .4 4
6.36
6.36
6.41
6. 3O
6.18
6.20
6.2 4
6.20
6.17
6.17
6.15
- .02
- .OS
6.09
6.02
6.05
5.93
5.36
5.30
5.79
5.31
5.79
5.31
5.77
5.68
+
~
+
-
5.61
5.5?
5.5 4
5. us
5-50
5.55
5.55
5. us
5.U2
5*33
5*35
5.32
-
+
+
+
-
.05
.11
.12
.02
.oU
.oU
.03
_
- .02
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
YEARLY
DIEEERENCE
- .SO
+ .05
“ .73
- .72
- .62
- .67
- . 6U
+ *06
- .U5
- .1*5
- .37
- .31
1926
Jan*
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
.06
.07
.03
.07
.12
.06
.01
.02
.02
+ .02
+ .oU
- .09
♦ *03
■
-?1
::S
+ .02
:;g
::8
+ .06
: #*TV
g
- .U7
1927
Jan.
Fe*b.
Mar.
Apr,
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct,
Nov.
Dec.
.07
.02
.05
.06
+. .02
+ .05
—
- .07
- ,06
- .oU
- .03
- .03
- .Us
- .*3
- .51
- .50
+ .07
- .36
- .25
- , 2U
- *33
-
.37
.%
.42
.36
156
MOODY *S BOND YIELD AVERAGES
120 DOMESTIC CORPORATION BONDS
BY RATINGS
(Baa BONDS)
(continued)
1922
Jan.
EeL.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Pet).
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1930
Jan.
Eel.
Mar.
Apr.
May
JuneJuly
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
MONTHLY
INDEX
5.35
5-33
5*32
5.33
5.42
5.55
5.52
5 .6 1
5.59
5.52
5.55
5 .6 0
5 .6 3
5 .6 6
5.79
5 .2 0
5 .2 0
5.9^
5.95
S.Oh
6 .1 2
6 .1 1
6 .0 3
5.95
5.92
5.29
5.73
5.70
5.72
5.72
5.77
5.73
5.65
5.9*+
6 .2 5
6 .7 1
MONTHLY
DIEEERENCE
+ .03
- .02
~ .01
+ .01
4 .09
4 .13
+ .03
+ .03
- .0 2
- .01
- .03
4. .05
4
4
*
4
.03
.03
.13
.01
+
+
4
+
-
.ih
4
4
~
-
.0 3
.03
.16
.03
.0 2
.06
.01
.01
.09
.os
.01
.os
.OS
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIEEERENCE
t .03
+ .29
+ .28
♦ *33
* .57
4 .OS
.oh
- .08
4 .29
4 .31
4 .46
,x YEARLI
DIEEEREN
- .26
- .26
- .22
- .15
- .OS
—
4 .03
4 .13
+ .17
+ .20
4 .20
4 .28
4
+
4
+
4
t
4
4
4
.U7
.32
.39
*37
.43
*53
.53
4
+
-
.29
*23
.06
.10
.08
.16
.IS
£
- •
.47
-1 .0 7
4 .22
4 .76
“
+1 .0 6
M
.35
157
MOODY'S BOND YIELD AVERAGES
120 DOMESTIC CORPORATION BONDS
BY RATINGS
(Baa BONDS)
(continued)
1931
Jan.
Eel •
Mar*
•Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec *
MONTHLY
INDEX
6.41
6. 3S
S .m
6.72
7.15
7.36
7. 0s
7.H7
8*07
9. 0U
8.93
10. *+2
MONTHLY
DIEEERENCE
- .30
- .03
4 .06
+ .28
4 .H3
4 .11
- .28
+ .39
4
• SO
4 *97
«
.11
+
1.14-9
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIEEERENCE
4
.88
+
1.96
* 1.H9
YEARLY
DIEEERENCE
4 “.J*9
+ .H9
+ .71
+ 1.02
+ 1 .H3
+ 1.58
+ 1 .3 1
+ I.7 U
+ 2 .H2
+ 3 .1 0
+ 2.68
+ 3*71
1932
Jan.
EeL.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec*
1933
Jan.
Eel.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep •
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
9.1 3
8.87
8.83
10. H6
11.63
11.52
10.79
8.22
7.61
7.87
8. 2H
8.H2
8.01
8.37
8.91
9*12
7.7^
7.07
6.62
6.77
7.27
7.^9
7.9S
7.75
- 1.29
- .26
- .oH
+ 1.63
41.17
-
*73
-2 .5 7
~ .61
•* .26
4 .37
4 .18
4
.Hi
.36
.5H
+
.21
4
+ 2.80
*11
- 1.38
»
.67
=* .H-5
4 .15
4 .50
4 .22
+ .H-9
- .23
+ 2 .7 2
4 2.^9
+ 2.39
♦ 3.7U
4 U.HS
4 U.16
+ 3.71
4 .75
4 .81
4 1.11
- M
- 1 .1 7
- .69
■» 2 .0 0
- 1.12
- .50
+ .08
- 1 .3 ^
-3.89
-
U.U5
- U .17
- I.U5
-
+ 1.36
_
_
.34
.38
.26
.67
158
MOODY'S BOED YIELD AVERAGES
120 DOMESTIC CORPORATION BONDS
BY RATINGS
(Baa BONDS)
(continued)
1934
Jan.
Eet>.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Jun£
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1935
Jan.
Eel.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nev.
Dec.
1936
Jan.
Eet>.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec. „
MONTHLY
INDEX
7.01
6.27
6 .2 6
6 .0 1
6 .0 5
6 .0 6
6 .1 3
6.49
6.57
6.4o
6.37
6 .2 3
MONTHLY
DIFEEREN
.74
- -7^
- .01
- .25
+ .04
4. .01
4 .07
+ .36
+ .08
*- .17
- .03
_ .14
5.98
5.95
6 .2 0
6.13
5 .9 4
5 .7 7
5 .6 7
5 .5s
5.5 3
5 .5 4
5 .4 3
3 .3 0
+
-
5 .0 0
4.so
4*86
4 .9 1
4*94
4 ,9 0
4.s4
U .714
4 .6 2
4 .5 4
4 .5 2
4*53
- .30
- .20
■+ .0 6
+ .05
4 .03
- .04
- .0 6
- .10
- .12
- .08
- .02
4 .01
+
-
.25
.03
.25
.07
.19
.17
.10
*09
.05
.01
.11
.13
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIEEERENCE
YEARLY
DIEEERENCE
- 1.00
- 2.10
- 2.65
- 3.11
- 1.69
- 1.01
- .49
.44
- .28
- .70
- 1.0 9
- 1.61
- 1.52
- 1.Q3
+ .25
+
4 .01
.32
.06
.12
.11
.29
.46
.91
i.o4
-
.86
-
.94
-
.93
-
.98
- 1 .1 5
- 1 .3 4
- 1.22
.14
- 1.00
-
-
. 77
+ .01
.87
.83
.84
.91
1.00
.51
-
199
MOODY1
*S BOOT) YIELD AVERAGES
120 DOMESTIC CORPORATION BONDS
BY RATINGS
(Baa BONDS)
(continued)
1937
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
lJjS
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
MONTHLY
INDEX
4 .49
4.53
4 .6 s
4 .2 4
4 .2 4
4 .9 3
4.91
4 .92
5.16
5-52
5.82
5.73
5.89
5.97
6.30
.6 .4 7
6.06
6.25
5.63
5.49
5.65
5 .36
5.23
5.27
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
- .04
CUMULATIVE
MONTHLY
DIFFERENCE
+ .o4
+ .15
4- .16
+
+
+
+
+
-
.09
.02
.01
.21+
.36
*3°
.09
+ .1*
+ .91
+ .16
+
+
+
+
-
+
-
.OS
-33
.17
*1
*19
.62
.lU
.16
.29
+ .7^
+ .19
+ .16
+ !oi+
AMOUNT
Maximum Monthly Decline
+1 „63
Second Largest Monthly Decline +1.1+9
Maximum Decline "by Consecutive
Months
+ 2 .SO
Second Largest Monthly Decline
hy Consecutive Months +I .9 6
Maximum Yearly Decline
Second Largest Yearly Decline
+1+.1+S
+U„ 16
YEARLY
DIFFERENCE
.51
.27
•IS
.07
.10
.03
.07
.IS
.5^
+ 1.0S
+ 1 .3 0
+ 1.20
+ 1.1*0
+ 1.1*
+1 #62
+ I .63
+ 1.22
+ 1 .3 2
+ .72
+ .57
+ *9
- .16
- .59
- .1+6
DATE
April 1932
December I93 I
1 month
1 month
Apr.-May 1932
2 months
Aug.-Oct. 1931
3 months
DURATION
May to May 1931“32
1 year
June to June 1931-32 1 year
160
APPENDIX B
MONTHLY PRICE QUOTATIONS ON 1,1+13
CORPORATE DOMESTIC CUBAN AND
CANADIAN BONDS CLASSIFIED BY
MOODY*S RATINGS AND BY MATURITIES
(These bonds are all of 5*000,000 size
or over which were included in
the May 5* 1931 Fitch Bond Record Booh)
Note:
The data contained in this appendix are the
basic material of the individual bond price
study discussed in Chapter IV.
161
E x p la n a tio n
L e tte r in g
b e fo r e
V
-
S
L e tte r in g
p a r tic u la r
-
lis te d
o f bond so d e s ig n a te d
p ar v a lu e f o r th e
,0 0 0
o n N ew Y o r k S t o c k E x c h a n g e
C
- lis te d
o n N ew Y o r k
0
s tr a d e d
o v e r -th e -c o u n te r
d e s c r ip tio n
P.U.
- p u b lic
IND
- in d u s tr ia l
R .R .
—r a ilr o a d
R .E .
s real
F IN
- fin a n c ia l
C u rb E x c h a n g e
o f bond
u tility
e sta te
d e s c r ip tio n
B a n d X,
B a,
bond d e s c r ip tio n
V o lu m e o f t r a d i n g
w as a t l e a s t $3 6 0
y ea r 1931
fo llo w in g
F o llo w in g t h e
su ch a s
th e
o f L e tte r in g
o f th e
M is c e lla n e o u s
B onds a r e th e
r a tin g s
X i n d i c a t e s t h a t M oody’ s a s s ig n e d no r a t in g t o t h a t
bond.
The u s e
o f th e
above
s y m b o ls m ay b e
illu s tr a te d
by th e
fo llo w in g
e x a m p le :
V -S .
C e r ta in te e d
The V i n d i c a t e s
to
in
1931
S.F. 5 e s (IN D )
an
on th e
o f b o n d s.
N ew Y o r k S t o c k E x c h a n g e .
in d u s tr ia l.
The B i s
B
e n d in g D ecem b er t h i s
t h e e x t e n t o f $ > 3 6 0 ,0 0 0 p a r v a l u e
lis te d
is
th a t
P rod.
th e
r a tin g
is s u e w as tr a d e d
The S m ea n s t h e
T he " (IN D )"
a s s ig n e d
sta te s
le a s t
is s u e w as
th a t th e
b y M oody’ s a s
at
is s u e
o f M ay 1 ,
1931-
162
r j -—* <1 O t e 4
tel bd 1 tel ca
» 0
0
•
ct*
Cj OQ
a
tel — 0
0
p*
M*
i-1
H4
O •
•
ct . ,
<D tel
d
CO te4
•
te
Ml
m
h
Ml
H4
CD
I—*
H
•
H
jn
^>1
t-3 O
04
04
tel
P»
H*
•
d M
CD •
CD
£
O
O
r-3
04
ro
04
o
o
t-*
o
o
&
Ol*—1
O
.no
O
t-4
K->4
o
M
04
H4
O
ro
tei
co o
O
O
CO
IM3
ro
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B
QUOTATIONS
MISCELLANEOUS BONDS MATURING AT 30 YEARS AND OVER
5 /l/6l and longer
H
H
H»
283
APPENDIX C
HISTORY OP Aaa RATINGS
ON ALL
BONDS SO RATED ANY TIME FROM
1919 TO 1938
Note:
The data in this appendix along with
that in Appendix D are the bases of
the material discussed in Chapter V*
304
HISTORY OP BQHDS BY MOODY'S RATIHSS
Key to Column Headings
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
Aaa
Aa
A
Baa
Ba
B
Caa and Lower.
Matured*
Cumulative Matured.
Called.
A. Called.
B. All Owned by Company,
XL
Cumulative Called.
A. Cumulative Called. B. Cumulative All Owned by Company
XII
Interest Defaulted or Deferred.
XIII Cumulative Interest Defaulted or Deferred.
XIV
Principal Defaulted.
A. Receivership, Foreclosure, and Bankruptcy.
B. Principal Hot Paid, including Reorganization and Hew Securities
issued in Exchange.
C. Modifications as to Due Date and Interest, including Extensions
of Maturity Date, Mergers with Exchange of Securities, and
Changes in Interest Rate.
XV
Cumulative Principal Defaulted.
A. Cumulative Receivership, Foreclosure, and Bankruptcy.
B. Cumulative Principal Hot paid, including Reorganization, and Hew
Securities issued in Exchange for Old.
C. Cumulative Modifications as to Due Date and Interest, including
Extensions of maturity Date, Mergers with Exchange of Securities,
and Changes in Interest Rate.
XVI Hot Rated.
XVII Hot Listed.
265
Status in Each Succeeding Year of All Domestic American and Canadian
Corporate Non-Serial Bonds
_______
S>06 Bonds Rated Aaa in 1919
(Revised, May 1938)
Yr.
I
II
III IT
V VI VII VIII
IX
X XI XII XIII
XIV
XV
XVI
XVII
1920 723
16
11
H
1-921 655
37
15
3
37
81
H
H
1922 602
Hi
19
2
ho
121
2
6
2
1
12
1923 570
35
17
2
33
15H 1
7
2
3
16
192U 535
HH
18
3
1H
168
2 9
2
6
21
1925 H92
59
20
3
3
19
187
9
2
9
22
1926 k j 2
57
18
5
1
19
206
2 11
1
1
2
13
20
1927 HHs
51
18
7
22
228
5 16
1
1
2
15
20
192S H30
^7
13 10
21
2H9
2 18
1
1
2
16
20
1929 H05
36
16 11
25
27H
6 2k
1
1
2
13
2H
1930 388
31
12 lH
1
23
297
2k
2
2
2
lH
21
1931 331
H9
22
7
9
29
326
2 26
1
2
H
16
15
Hs 26
8
H
28
35^
26
1
2
H
15
13
1932 191 116
HH
1
1
7
2
2
9
2
1933 1^7
88
88 32 lH
3
17
371
26
3
H
1
5
16
13
193^ lHl
83
76 39 13
3
19
390
26
3
H
1
5
lH
13
1935 132
72
71 ^5 13
5
1
7
397
6 32
2
5
3
7
16
13
1936 122
6H
66 38 lH
9
1
18
Hi5 5 37
H
7
1
7
16
13
1937 10H
63
59 35 11 17
1
23
U38
3 Ho
1
7
3
10
16*
11**
1938
56
1+6 52 37 20
H
8
m
1 Hi
2
8
11
21
15*
H**
55
retired at various dates.
* 6 of these should have "been :
**
Retired at various dates.
266
892 Bonds Rated Aaa in 1920
Yr.
I
II III
IV V
VI VII VIII
IZ
X
(Revised, May 193%)
XI XII XIII XIV XV
XVI
XVII
1921
796
37
8
1
4i
4i
4
4
1922
726
44
8
2
49
90
3
7
2
13
1923
677
l+o
l4
2
35 125
3
10
7
17
192 U
636
1+6
14
4
is 143
4
l4
i4
21
1925
57S
67
19
4
3
18 l 6l
2
16
15
29
1926
555
61
23
4
2
22 183
3
19
2
2
19
24
1927
526
57
22
6
2
24 207
7
26
2
2
19
25
1928
504
53
16
9
24 231
6
32
2
2
18
27
1929
471
1+0
24
10
31 262
6
38
2
2
IS
27
1930
448
3^
19
l4
1
31 293
1
39
2
2
18
24
1931
371
63
27
8
9
35 328
2
4l
2
3
2
22
19
1932
204 131+ 63
36
9
3
32 360
4i
2
3
2
20
18
1933
153 109 101
4o 19
4
19 379
4i
4
5
4
19
19
193^
i46 103
81
56 IS
3
20 399
4i
4
5
4
18
19
1935
138
89
79
54 21
6
1
10
409
6
47
3
6
6
20
19
1936
130
7^
76
45 16 16
1
IS
427
9
56
5
8
6
17
19
1937
ill*
74
68
44 11 19
1
24 451
3
59
3
8
5
11
16 *
21 **
193S
55
64
57
60 44 22
5
9 46o 1
60
k
9
12
23
16
22
*5
5 -
these should have "been paid at various dates*
**l6 ©f these should have been paid at various dates.
2
2
2
267
906 Bonds Hated Aaa in 1921
11
Yr.
I
1922
814 21
2
1923
75 U
27
1924
707
1925
(Revised, May 1958)
VI VII VIII
IX
X
1
54
54
4
4
2
8
5
1
37
91
4
8
6
i4
36
9
1
18
109
3
11
14
19
639
63
13
2
2
19
128
4
15
16
28
1926
60 S
56
21
1
2
24
152
6
21
1
i
21
23
1927
575
52
22
2
1
27
179
7
28
1
1
23
23
192 S
551
51
IS
3
22
201
8
36
1
1
21
24
1929
516
36
25
6
33
234
6
42
1
1
22
24
1930
490
31
21 11
32
266
1
43
1
1
21
22
1931
402
66
28
38
304
3
46
2
2
25
19
1932
211 153
32
336
46
2
2
24
17
20
356
46
4
4
2
21
19
22
378
46
4
4
2
21
19
4
22
18
4
19
20
III IV
V
XI XII XIII XIV XV XVI XVII
8
6
69 32
7
3
1933
157 120 116 44
17
3
193^
151 114
90 61
20
1935
143
98
89 55
23
6
13
391
8
54
3
5
1936
135
86
84 45
l4
18
21
412 12
66
3
5
1937
117
84
73
11
25
23
435
4
70
2
5
1
5
23*
193^
55
74
60 63
42
23
9
444
2
72
2
6 l4
19
22 *
1
5
*5 of which should have heen retired at various times*
**15 of which should have "been retired at various times*
2
2
266
934 Bends Rated Aaa in 1922
Yr.
I
II
III
1923 857
13
2
1924 soo
32
6
1925 720
63
13
3
1926 685
54
21
2
1927 646
1+9 23
5
27 133 10
192S 621
45
19
5
25 158
9
1929 584
36
26
6
1930 557
30
20
10
1931 455
73
27
8
6
1932 240 175
76
39
6
3
1933 179 139 131
4l
23
2
1934 171 132 106
64
20
1935 163 115 102
60
23
6
1936 151 108
97
49
14
18
22 376 l4
1937 3-31 101
89
49 11
22
26 *402 3
81
74
75
48
23
193S
66
IV
V
VI VIII VIII
IX
(Revised, May 1938)
XII XIII XIV XV XVI XVII
X
XI
44
l|lj. 5
5
4
9
20
64
2
7
12
13
1
IS
82
5
12
15
25
1
24 106
1
5
1
1
25
19
30
1
1
25
22
39
1
1
24
22
29 187
6 45
1
1
27
22
33 220
3
*48
1
1
28
20
42 262
4
52
2
2
32
17
34 296
52
2
2
29
16
21 317
52
4
4
2 25
18
24 341
52
4
4
2 24
IS
13 354
8 60
3
5
4
26
18
74
3
5
4
21
19
77
2
5
1
5
25* 20**
2 79
3
7
16
21
24* 21**
12 4i4
8 20
* 10 of which should have heen retired at various times.
**13 of which should have heen retired at various times*
2
2
269
967 Bonds Rated Aaa in 1923
Yr.
I
II
III
1924 S95
26
1
1925 S03
65
8
1
1926 762
59
17
2
1927 720
58
19
192S 635
56
1929 644
IV
V
VI
VII VIII
(Revised, May 1938)
IX
X
XI
XII XIII XIV XV XVI
XVII
1
23
23
2
2
11
8
1
1
23
46
7
9
16
17
1
1
25
71
8
17
23
i4
4
1
26
97 10
27
24
17
16
4
1
28
125 10
37
24
19
46
24
4
1
33
15S
6
43
28
19
1930 615
3S
18
8
1
1
33
191
4
47
30
18
1931 502
S3
28
8
5
46
237
7
54
2
2
1
32
15
1932 274 186
82
4i
5
3
3S
275
54
2
2
1
30
l4
1933 207 149 l40
46 18
2
27
302
54
4
4
3
26
15
1934 19s 143 114
66 20
22
324
54
4
4
3
25
16
1935 138 126 111
63 23
6
13
337
9
63
2
5
5
27
16
1936 173 116 108
51 l4
13
23
360 15
73
2
5
5
23
19
1937 151 108
92
53 12
22
28
338
2
80
1
5
2
7
14*
19**
193s
74
S5 50
32
17
405
3
S3
3
7
11
18
32*
is**
* 9
SI
86
1
which should have "been retired at various dates*
**10 of which should have "been retired at various dates.
1
2
2
__________37% Bonds Rated Aaa in 192 H____
_____ .
Yr.
I
II III
IV
l
(Revised, May 193$)
V
VI VII VIII
IX
X XI XII XIII XIV XV
XVI
XVII
1
25
25
7
7
9
10
1
26
51
8 15
15
9
77
1925
869 56
1926
82H
50
13
1927
780
52
17
26
6 21
19
12
1928
73S 55
15
28 105 12 33
18
lH
1929
69H
1+9 18
3
32
137
6 39
21
17
1930
663
Ho
17
b
38
175
3 b2
1931
537
95
29
6 l
be
221
8 50 1
1932
292 203
si
1
35
256
50
1933
220 165 150
50 21
l 1
2'4 280
193^ 210 15S 123
73 20
1
23
303
1935
198 139 120
69 2U
7
1936
183 127 115
58 13
18
1937
15S 119
99
93
76
193S
S5
1
1
21
15
1
1
2
25
11
1
1
1
3
25
10
50
1
1
3
6
22
11
50
1
1
6
22
11
13
316 11 6l
2
2
6
25
11
1
2b
3*40 17 IS
3
3
6
22
lH
62 11
23 2
28
368
b 82
2
3
2
8
28*
16**
93 57
22 9
21
3S9
b 86
b
5
15
23
25*
16**
U2
8
*7 of which should have heen retired at various times*
** 7 of which should have heen retired at various times.
312 Bonds Rated Aaa in 1925
I
II
1926
860
S
1927
SI 5
lU
192 S
773
1929
Yr.
ill
IV
V
VII VIII
IX
X
2S
28
8
8
8
2
2b
52
6
lU
11
u
17
2
30
82
9
23
9
6
72 U
16
5
36
118
6
29
12
8
1930
690
IS
5
1
29
1 U7
1
13
8
1931
561
S5
15
1
hi
IBS
2
16
6
1932
307 209
76
J>b
6
30
1933
233 166
1 U9
U2
16
193^
221 162
123
61
1935
20 S 1 U1
123
1936
192 130
1937
193S
VI
(Revised, May 193%)
XI XII XIII XIV XV XVI XVII
1
29
37
1
1
1
218
37
1
1
1
3
16
5
1
2b 2b2
37
1
1
3
6
lU
5
IS
1
21
263
37
1
1
6
lU
5
53
22
5
ib
277 11
US
2
2
6
17
5
117
5U
7
15
2
23
300 17
65
3
3
6
15
6
165 123
100
63
S
16
2
26
326
69
2
'3
2
8
17 *
&**
9S
73
96
57
19
7
21
3^7
75
3
b 10
IS
18*
37
8
6
* 5 of which should have heen retired at various dates.
**3 of which should have heen retired at various dates.
.
292
907 Bonds Rated Aaa in 1926
Yr.
I
II
ill
1927
S53
9
192 S
1929
IV
V
VI VII VIII
IX
l
30
30
80*+ i k
l
33
753
ib
k
35
1930
716
18
5
1931
580
S3
15
1
1932
319
21k
75
3*4-
1933
Zkk
193^
230 167
1935
6
(Revised, May 195%)
XI XII XIII XIV XV XVI XVII
X
7
3
k
63
11 18
2
5
9S
6 2k
6
8
29 127
2k
8
8
1+2 169
12 36
1
29 198
l 37
7
1
1
1
3
k 12
1
1
1
5
12
6
3
8
11
6
6
1+2 16
1
23 221
37
1
I
126
60
17
1
22 2^-3
37
1
1
8
11
6
215 lHs
122
5S
21
5
lb 257 Ik 51
2
2
8
13
7
1936
19S 135
116
53
7
16
1
2k 281
18 69
3
3
8
11
9
1937
168 127
101
62
8
16
2
26 307
7 76
2
3
2
10
IS* 10 **
193S
86 102
77
97
57
18
7
22 329
6 82
2
k 13
23
15* 11 **
*
173 lUs
2 of which, should have "been retired earlier.
** 5 ©f which should have "been retired earlier.
293
883 Bonds Rated Aaa in 1927
Yr.
I
IX
III
IV
V VI VII VIII
IX
X
(Revised, May 1953)
XI XII XIII XIV
XV
XVI XVII
33
35 10
10
1
1
H
3H
67
7
17
3
6
13
5
29
96
79
15
2
1932 330 220
76
31
1933 25H 176
1H9
H-2 16
193^ 237 171
127
1935 220 152
1928 S30
8
1929 777
9
1930 7Ho
1931 59S
17
1
1
5
6
Hi
137 lH
31
1
1
3
H
10
6
28
165
1
32
1
1
1
5
10
6
1
2H
189
32
1
1
3
8
9
6
62 16
1
23
212
1
33
1
1
8
10
5
123
60 20
5
lH
226 16
H9
2
2
8
12
6
1936 201 137
118
54
7 16
1
23
2H9 22
71
3
3
1
9
10
7
1937 168 130
102
62
9 16
2
27
276
7
78
2
3
2 11
18*
79 100 55 18
7
20
296 .6
8H
H
5
2H
15*
1938
*
88 103
7
2 of which should have been retired earlier*
**H of which whould have been retired earlier.
13
10 **
29k
____ 867 Bonds Rated. Aaa in 1928________ (Revised, May 195&)
Yr.
X
II
III
1929
811
3
1930
772
1931
VI VII VIII
IX
X
3
3^
3^
8
9
b
30
Gb
623
80
15
bb
108 17
25
1
1
1932
3I+2
227
81
29
137
2
27
1
1
1
1933
266
18^
151
1+3 li+ 1
25
162
27
1
1
3
133k
2^7
1JB
128
63 15
1
25+
186
3
30
1
1935
229
159
125
59 20
5
15
201 16
1+6
1936
206
ibb
118
51+ 6 17
1
26
227 25
1937
171
136
102
62
7 16
2
28
255
1933
90
109
80
99 53 19
7
19
27U
*
IV
30
V
6
2 of which should have "been retired earlier.
** b of which should have "been retired earlier.
XI XII XIII XIV XV XVI XVII
8
3
5
8
5
5
10
5
1
10
5
1+
9
5
1
b
9
5
2
2
1+ 11
6
71
3
3
1
5
8
8
79
2
3
2
7
19*^
7
86
b
5
ib 21
16*
7
295
899 Bonds Rated Aaa in 1929______ (Revised, May 1938)
Yr.
I
II
in
1930
853
9
1
1931
683
88
lb
1932
390 2b0
82
1933
30b 196
157
193^
281 ISb
133
1935
257 175
1936
IV
V
VI
VII VIII IX
32
29
8
X
XI XII XIII XIV
X? XVI XVII
2
2
2
78 27
29
7
32
32 110
3
32
1
1
7
3
k
6
b
6
lb
1
29 139
2
3^
6k
15
1
26 165
2
36
128
61
21
5
15 180 22
58
1
1
k
8
1
225 156
122
55
6
18
1
28 208 32
90
2
2
b
6
6
1937
180 ikk
105
6H
8
16
2
31 239 16 106
1
2
2
6
1938
93 115
sb 103
55
20
7
23 262
2
3
ik
20
*
2 of which should have "been retired earlier.
** 2 of which should have heen retired earlier
7 113
10 * 16 **
_____________________ 885 Bonds Bated Aaa in 1930
III
IV
V
VI VII VIII
IX
X
XI XII XIII XIV
XV XVI XVII
^7
1*7
27
27
30
77
3
30
1
1
5
1
3
b b
1
b b
1
1931
ro
o>
II
__
f*-
I
H
O
Yr.
(Revised, May 193%)
12
1932
399 2 U 5
sh
9
1933
308 200
162
50 ib
1
31
108
3
33
193^
285 198
137
70 15
1
26
13^
3
36
1935
262 179
133
61 26
5
15
lU9
21
57
1
1
b
6
2
1936
225 160
128
61
5
18
1
29
178
36
93
2
2
b 5
5
1937
181 lUg
108
70
6
18
2
32
210
18 ill
1
2
2
6 17 *
7 **
193S
9 ^ 116
87
106 59
18
7
20
230
7 118
3
b
19
25 15 *
7 **
*
2 of which, should have "been retired earlier,
** 2 of which should have "been retired earlier.
5
297
735 Bonds Bated Aaa in. 1931
1
II
in
IV
1932
1*23 226
36
1933
32 S 193
193*4-
Yr.
V
VI VII
(Revised, May 193%)
XI XII XIII XIV XV XVI XVI]
VIII
IX
X
15
29
29
1*
1*
116
28
32
61
3
7
30 H 191
106
35
26
87
3
10
1935
27 s 172
99
1*5
11* 101 2k
3^
1
1
1
3
1
1936
231* 15k
96
kO
25
126 1*1* 78
2
2
1
3
1
1937
1 S 6 i **3
87
1*0
3
2
31
157 IS
96
1
2
2
3 15
2
193 s
100 11 U
80
S7
30
9
23
180
8 10 H
1
2
13
16 13
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
298
*4-37 Bonds Rated Aaa in 1932
Yr,
I
II
III IV
V
VI VII VIII
IX
X
(Revised, May 1938)
XI
1933
3^1 5S
15
2
IS
18
3
3
1934
30s 6s
16
b
is
36
2
5
1935
279
63
22
h
1936
223 56
22 k
1937
1S1 56
21
193s
99 74
9
^5 is
XII XIII XIV XV XVI
23
1
21
66 39 62
1
1
6 1
1
16
82 15 77
1
1
34 IS 10
3
1^
96H i
1
1
3
1
1
10
10 11 10
xvii:
299
353 Bonds Bated Aaa in 1933
II
III
Yr.
I
193 U
319 11
2
19
1935
290 10
6
8
1936
231 16
5
15
*+2
36
55
1
1
3
1937
186 27
b
1
13
55
13
68
1
1
11
1938
108 61
1
11
66
b
72
1
1
15 lU
IV
V
VI
VII VIII
IX
19
27
X
(Revised, May 193^)
2
17
XI XII
XIII XIV XV XVI XVII
2
19
1
k
k
11
300
3^-6 Bonds Sated Aaa in 193*1
Yr.
I
1935
II
III
311
2
1
1
g
g
1936
2 U5
10
1
1
ih
22
bi Gb
3
1937
192
23
2
1
13
35
16 go
13
I93 g
111
63
11
bG
U Bb
13
IV
lb
V
VI
VII VIII
IX
(Revised, May 1958)
X XI XII XIII XIV XV XVI XVII
23 23
2 2
13
301
329 Bonds Rated Aaa In 1935
Yr.
I
II
1936
262
III
IV
VIII
IX
8
ik
ll+
1+2 1+2
3
1937
202 2l+
13
27
25
67
9
193 S
116 68
6
73
13
V
11
VI
VII
(Revised, May 1938)
11
X XI XII XIII XIV XV XVI XVII
38
3
3
7
277 Bonds Rated Aaa in 1937
1937
1938
222
18
132 73
11
10
13
13
8
21
16
16
6
22
8
2
2
236 Bonds Rated Aaa in 1937
1938
11+6
65
11
8
8
1+1+
2 2
151 Bonds Rated Aaa in lf3^>
Brought up to date
October 193^*
6
302
APPENDIX D
HISTORY OF Baa RATINGS
ON ALL
BONDS SO RATED ANY TIME FROM
1919 TO 1938
Note:
The data in this appendix along with
that in Appendix C are the bases of
the material discussed in Chapter V.
HISTORY OP BONDS BY MOODY1S RATINGS
Key to Column Headings
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
XI
XII
XIII
XIV
XV
XVI
XVII
Aaa
Aa
A
Baa
Ba
B
Caa and Lower
Matured.
Cumulative Matured.
Called.
A. Called.
B. All Owned by Company
Cumulative Called.
A. Cumulative Called.
B. Cumulative All
Interest Defaulted or Deferred.
Cumulative Interest Defaulted or Deferred.
, Principal Defaulted.
A. Receivership, Foreclosure, and Bankruptcy,
B. Principal Not Paid, Including Reorganization and New Securities
issued in Exchange,
C. Modifications as to Due Date and Interest, including Extensions
of Maturity Date, Mergers with Exchange of Securities, and Changes
in Interest Rate.
Cumulative Principal Defaulted.
A. Cumulative Receivership, Foreclosure, and Bankruptcy.
B. Cumulative Principal Not Paid, including Reorganization, and
New Securities issued in Exchange for Old.
C. Cumulative Modifications as to Due Date and Interest, including
Extensions of maturity Date, Mergers with Exchange of Securities,
and Changes in Interest Rate.
Not Rated.
Not Listed.
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APPENDIX E
WORKING PAPERS FOR CALCULATIONS OF
MONTHLY ARITHMETIC MEANS OF PRICES
MAY 1931 “ JUNE 1932
(Number of Bonds in Each Maturity
Group Number of Quotations Available
Each Month, Totals of Quotations, and
the Monthly Means)
Note:
These data support the analysis
Chapter IV.
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329
APPENDIX F
DISTRIBUTION OF BONDS BY MATURITIES
AND RATINGS
(Number of Bonds rated Aaa each
year having maturities of
8,
15 * 25, and 30 years.
Number of Bonds rated Aa each
year having maturities of I4., 8,
15> 25 , ahd 30 years.
Number of Bonds rated Baa each
year having maturities of I4., 8 ,
15, 25 , and 3° years.)
Note:
The data in this appendix supplements
the table HISTORY OF BONDS BY RATINGS
AND MATURITIES; PERCENTAGE SAME OR
HIGHER RATING OR CALLED - PERCENTAGE
VIOLATIONS OF CONTRACT in Chapter V.
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331
APPENDIX G
ARITHMETIC MEANS, MONTHLY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MEANS, CUMULATIVE MONTHLY DECLINES AND
YEARLY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MEANS OF
CORPORATE BOND PRICES LISTED IN APPENDIX .B
(Results are shown by Rating and by Maturity)
Note:
The data in this appendix are discussed in
Chapter IV.
332
Aaa, MATURITIES UP TO 2 YEARS
1331
M
J
J
A
S
0
V
D
Means
Monthly
Difference
102. *4-2
102.*&
102.6*4102.69
102.12
100.39
99.2*499.20
4 .02
4 .20
+ .05
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97 .su
98.02
98'.5^
92.61
100 .H2
91.75
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+ .18
+ -32
+ .27
+1.81
-s. 67
Cumulative
Monthly Declines
Yearly
Difference
i m
J
TP
M
A
M.
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- 8,67
2.00
10.69
Aaa, MATURITIES 2 TO 5 YEARS
1931
M
J
J
A
S
0
N
D
102.89
102 .H 6
102.69
102.81
101.69
99.23
97.77
95.56
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29.99
90.16
93.10
92.35
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1932
J
E
M
A
M
J
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- g.28
13.67
17.6>+
333
Aaa, MATURITIES 5 TO IQ YEARS
Monthly
Difference
Means
M
J
J
A
103.53
103.64
10^.03
10^.23
s
1
0
3
Cumulative
Monthly Declines
Yearly
Differences
+ .11
4- .39
+ .20
.
-
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0
99*^2
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w
96. hz
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D
95.77
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1932
J
F
M
A
M
J
91.73
90.87
92.5^
92.32
92.^8
90.38
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- .86
+1.67
- .22
+ *l6
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-13.36
-
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11.05
13.26
Aaa, MATURITIES 10 TO 20 YEARS
1931
Means
M
J
JA
S
0
N
D
1 0 0 .6 8
1 0 1 .2 2
101.39
1 0 0 .2 0
99.71
SUM
91.^3
90.64
Monthly
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Cumulative
Monthly Decline s
Yearly
Differences
+ .5^
.17
-1.19
- M
-5.30
- 2 .9s
- .79
1932
J
F
U
A
U
J
8 U.U6
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86.3^
8 6 .6 7
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-
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15.^9
33k
Aaa, MATURITIES 20 TO 50 YEARS
1931
M
J
J
A
S
0
N
D
Means
Monthly
Dif ferei
1
100.5S
101.25
101.00
101.09
99.97
93.71
89 .76
90.17
+ .67
- .25
+ .09
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-6.26
-3.95
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84.15
84,00
S3.80
84.39
84.74
81.06
-6.02
- .15
- .20
* .59
+ .35
-3 .6S
Cumulative
Monthly Declines
Yearly
Differences
*11.33
1932
J
3?
M
A
M
J
- 6.37
- 3 .6s
15.3k
20.19
Aaa, MATURITIES OVER 30 YEARS
1931
M
J
J
A
S
0
et
D
100.53
100.76
100 .68
100.Ho
98.30
91.80
86.51
83.88
+ .23
- .08
- .28
- 2.10
- 6.50
-5.29
-2.63
79.68
79.69
81.22
78.35
76.18
71.92
-4.20
+ .01
+1.53
- 2.87
-2.17
-4.26
1932
J
y
M
A
M
J
-21.0S
- 9.30
2H.^5
2&.%k
335
Aa, MATURITIES UP TO 2 YEARS
1931
M
J
J
A
S
0
N
D
Means
Monthly Difference
100.88
101 .l>i+
101.00
101.31
100.85
100.28
99 .34
99.50
♦
+
+
99.88
100.25
98.00
98.82
98.25
98.19
+ .38
+ .37
-2.25
+■ .82
- .57
- .06
.56
.iti*
.31
.46
.57
.94
.16
Cumulative
Monthly Declines
-
Yearly
Difference
.kk
- 1.97
1932
J
F
M
A
M
J
- 2.25
- .63
2.65
3.25
Aa, MATURITIES 2 TO
1931
M
J
J
A
S
0
jst
D
103.71
IO3.38
10U.09
104.00
103.01
98.73
98.33
97*49
- .33
+ .71
- .09
- .99
-4.28
- .40
- .84
-
92.13
95.50
94*35
92.73
88.60
84*10
-5.36
*3.37
-1.15
- 1.62
-4.13
-4.50
-11.96
.33
1952
j
F
M
A
M
J
- 11.Uo
i5 .ll
19.28
336
Aa, MATURITIES 5 TO 10 YEARS
Monthly
Differences
1931
Means
M
J
J
A
S
0
N
D
1 0 2 .6 2
1 0 2 .7 6
1 0 1 .5h
102.69
99.03
93.71
9 0 .8 9
S7.52
+ .1^
-1.22
+1.15
-3 .6 6
-5.32
-2 .8 2
-3.37
79.91
S2 .9 H
S3* 71
8 0 .8 3
7 6 .3 6
7 1 .1 8
-7.61
+3.03
+ .77
-2 .8 8
-U.i*7
-5.18
Cumulat ive
Monthly Declines
Yearly
Differences
- 1.22
1932
J
F
M
A
M
J
-22.73
j
-12.53
26.26
31.5^
Aa, MATURITIES 10- TO 20 YEARS
1951
M
J
J
A
S
0
N
D
102.09
101 .9 7
102.28
1 0 2 .5 6
101.11
96.54
93.63
9^.37
- .12
+ .31
+ .28
-1.U5
-^.57
-2.91
+ .7^
-
.12
-7 .*+o
- 7 .U0
- S . 93
1932
J
F
M
A
M
J
86.97
3 7 .1 3
86.9s
86.02
S4.57
80.45
+■ .1 6
- .15
- .96
-1 .U5
-U.12
17.52
- 6.68
21.52
337
1331
M
J
J
A
S
0
IT
D
Aa, MATURITIES 20 TO 30 YEARS
Monthly
Cumulative
Means
Biff erei
Monthly .Peeline s
IOO .53
100.67
IOO .57
IOO .39
98.12
93.91
91.13
S7.79
+ .lH
- .10
- .18
-2.27
-H .21
- 2.78
- 3 .3^
79.83
80.90
81.13
80.83
79.21
76 .H9
- 7.96
+1.07
+ .23
- .30
-1.62
- 2.72
Yearly
Differences
1932
J
F
M
A
M
J
- 20 .8k
21.32
- H.6H
2H.I8
Aa., MATURITIES OVER 50 YEARS
1931
M
J
J
A
S
0
ST
D
97.68
97.27
98.27
97.69
9H.52
86.09
83.69
78.92
- .Hi
+1.00
-
.Hi
- .58
-3.17
-8.H3
-2.Ho
-H.77
1932
J
F
M
A
M
J
72.52
76. H3
77.59
7H.66
72.27
6H.92
-6.Ho
+3.91
-25.75
41.16
-2.93
-2.39
-7.35
25 .Hi
-12.67
32.35
338
A, MATURITIES UP TO 2 YEARS
Monthly
Difference
Cumulative
Monthly Decline
1931
Means
M
J
J
A
S
0
IT
D
99.69
96.93
97 .7^
96.82
93.73
91.39
91.00
8U.U3
-2.76
4 .81
- .92
-3.09
-2 .3U
- .39
-6.37
- 2.76
76.96
86.93
89.30
82 .5U
76.07
72.07
-7^7
+9.97
+2.37
- 6.76
- 6 .U7
-M-.OO
-20.78
Yearly
Difference
1932
J
F
M
A
M
J
-17.23
23.62
24.86
A, MATURITIES 2 TO 5 YEARS
1931
M
J
J
A
S
0
N
D
95.60
93. S9
93.32
95.1^
89.70
80. Ho
80.58
7U.HU
-1.71
- .57
+1.82
-5.1+U
-9.30
+ .18
-Jo*lH
71.^
76.31
75.56
7^*07
6H.87
62 .H9
-3.00
+ H .87
- .75
-I.H9
-9.20
- 2 .3S
- 2.28
-1J+.7H
1932
J
F
M
A
M
J
- 9.1U
-13. &
30.73
31 .Up
539
A, MATURITIES 5 TO 10 YEARS
1951
M
J
J
A
S
0
N
D
Means
9^.39
92.96
93.13
92.23
89.^3
S2 .1U
Monthly
Difference
-I.U3
20.39
+ .17
- .90
-2. SO
-7.29
-1.75
76.23
-Ua6
71.83
73.95
75.01
73.63
67.
62.50
-U.Uo
+2.12
+1.06
-1.38
-6.%
-U.6U
Cumulative
Monthly Difference
Yearly
Difference
- 1.1*3
1932
J
F
M
A
M
J
-21.30
27.25
-12.51
30. U6
A t MATURITIES 10 TO 20 YEARS
1931
M
J
J
A
S
0
N
D
9 2 .0 2
91.79
- .23
77.89
75.21
- .23
+ .6 6
- .65
-2.SU
-S.U9
-2.58
- 2 .6 S
6S.71
71.35
7 2 .0 2
6 9 *6U
65*^6
59.39
- 6 .5 0
+ 2 .6U
+ .67
-2 .3 S
-U.is
- 6 .0 7
-23-7^
92 >^5
9 1 180
88.36
8 0 . kj
1932
J
F
M
A
M
J
26.56
-12.63
32. Ho
3ho
A, MATURITIES 20 TO 30 YEARS
12S.
M
J
J
A
S
0
1ST
D
Means
Monthly
Difference
Cumulative
Monthly Decline
95.60
93.91
94.60
9^.16
91.90
82.92
80.52
77-^
-1.99
+ .69
- .1*
- 2.26
-S.9S
-2.^*0
-3*03
-1.99
70.32
72.26
72.75
68.63
65.25
60.02
-7.12
+l.9h
+ -U9
- U ,12
-3.33
-5.23
-2U.28
Yearly
Difference
1932
J
S
M
A
M
J
-12.73
30-35
33.39
A, MATURITIES OVER 30 YEARS
1931
M
J
J
A
S
0
N
D
9It-.1+7
93*13
93*32
91.57
37*19
75.50
7^.60
6S.66
-I.3U
+ -69
-2.25
-*K33
-11.69
- .90
-5.91*
-1.3^
61.21
63-97
64.
56 .
53*09
U9 .U1
- 7-^5
+2.76
+ -S7
-S.39
-3*36
- 3 .6S
-32.61
1932
J
S'
M
A
M
J
-15.^3
**1.38
^3-72
3U1
Baa, MATURITIES UP TO 2 TEARS
1931
M
J
J
A
S
0
N
D
Means
98.71
96.70
98.10
95.50
9H .25
86.75
86.31
83 .ll
Monthly
Difference
Cumulative
Monthly Beeline
-2.01
+1.140
- 2.60
-1.25
-7.50
- .44
- 3.20
-2.01
-8.78
+ 5.17
-23.77
Yearly
Difference
1932
J
F
M
A
M
J
7^-33
79.50
79-58
77-^5
7H.05
76.28
+ .os
-2.13
- 3 .1*0
+ 2.23
-5-53
2U .66
20.kz
Baa, MATURITIES 2 TO 5 TEARS
1931
M
J
J
A
S
0
N
D
95.70
95*22
94.57
93.6k
91.89
84.1+2
62. J2
79.91
- .48
- .65
- .93
-1.75
-7.47
-1.70
-2.81
J
F
M
A
H
J
66.14
69.51
71.81
64.03
54.28
47.69
-13.77
+3.37
+2.30
-7.78
-9.75
-6.59
-29.56
-2H .12
Hi. 1+2
H7.53
3M2
Baa, MATURITIES 5 TO 10 YEARS
1951
Means
Monthly
Difference
M
J
J
A
S
0
N
D
91.71
S7.85
90.29
89. S3
86.84
78.1*3
76.20
70.81
-3.S6
+2.41*
- .46
-2.99
-S.Ul
-2.23
-5.39
-3.86
63.22
68.39
68.27
64.91
63.66
61.20
-7-59
+5.17
- .12
-3.36
-1.25
-2.46
-27.07
Cumulative
Monthly Decline
Yearly
Difference
1952
J
E
M
A
M
J
-7.19
28.05
26.65
Baa, MATURITIES 10 To 20 YEARS
1931
M
J
J
A
S
0
E
D
86.11
81. 66
85.01
83 .3S
so. 23
69.70
68.26
63 .5s
-4.45
+3.35
-1.63
-3.15
-!°•53
-1.1+4
-4.68
55 .5s
5S .57
5S.82
54.02
1*9.29
1*3.28
- 8.00
-*2.99
+ .25
-4.80
-4.73
- 6.01
-4.45
1932
J
E
M
A
M
J
-29.^3
-15>5^
36 .22
3S.3S
3k3
Baa, MATURITIES 20 TO 30 YEARS
Monthly
Cumulat ive
Difference
Monthly Decline
1931
Means
M
J
J
A
S
0
N
D
83.S9
82. 1*3
83.76
83.36
79- 30
67.27
65 .9^
63.^7
-4.06
-12.03
-1.33
- 2.47
56.36
59-13
62.30
55-9^
1+9.96
to.Ug
-7.11
-2.77
- 3.19
- 6.36
-5.92
-5.47
-1.46
Yearly
Difference
- i.lt6
1?32
J
F
M
A
M
J
- 27.to
-17.Si
33.93
37-91*
Baa, MATURITIES OVER 30 YEARS
1931
M
J
J
A
S
0
N
D
82.5*1
79 .2^
81.31
78.02
7^.18
60.96
60.19
57.16
- 3 .2O
-2.07
-3.29
-3.84
-13.22
- .77
-3.03
- 3.20
51.12
55.0^
55-5*1
*17-71
1*2.99
36.67
-6.04
-3.92
- .50
-7. S3
- 4.72
- 6.32
- 30.19
19?2
J
F
M
A
M
J
-18.87
39-55
to. 57
3hk
MISCELLANEOUS MATURITIES UP TO 2 YEARS
1951.
Means
Monthly
Different
M
J
J
A
S
0
N
D
77.79
7^.73
72.82
71.39
66.70
62.25
58.53
56.72
-3.06
-1.91
-1.^3
-U.69
-U.U5
-3.72
-1.81
^5.72
45.U7
^3.70
35.^7
32.6U
29.69
-11.00
- .25
“1.77
-8.23
-2.83
-2.95
Cumulative
Monthly Decline
Yearly
Difference
19?2
J
E
M
A
M
J
*♦5.15
-Us.io
U5.0U
MISCELLANEOUS MATURITIES 2 TO 5 YEARS
1921
M
J
J
A
S
0
N
D
68.87
70.71
6H.57
60.97
63.76
51.3S
5^-97
^6.77
+1 .8H
-e.ih
- 3.60
+2.79
-12 .3 s
+3.59
- 8.20
39.90
39.27
37. *9
35.65
27.95
26.27
-6.87
“ .63
-1.3S
-2 .2U
-7.70
- 1 .6 s
-9.7^
■12.3S
1932
J
3?
M
A
M
J
^0.92
-28.70
345
MISCELLANEOUS MATURITIES 5 TO 10 YEARS
122L
Means
M
J
J
A
S
0
N
D
6 7 .0 0
65.31
6 S .4 5
65.57
63.55
55.28
5 5 .6 0
5 4.51
Difference
-1.19
+2.65
-2.3S
-2.02
-s. 27
+ .32
-1 .0 9
Cumulative
Monthly Decline
Yearly
Difference
- 1.19
-
13-17
1222
j
F
M
A
M
J
4 7 .9 5
4 7 .1 0
46.71
47.19
4 3 .SO
3 9 .7 5
- 6 .5 6
- .85
- 8.89
+ .48
-3-39
-H .05
- 7.HH
23*20
26.06
MISCELLANEOUS MATURITIES 10 TO 20 YEARS
19?1
M
J
J
A
S
0
N
D
6 1 .H6
56.5^
57-61
55-65
5H.HU
UH.H9
U2 .2 2
U0 . 2 6
-U .9 2
+1.07
-1 .9 6
-1 .2 1
-9.95
-2.27
-1.96
- U.92
3^.35
35-12
35.97
33.36
30.65
25.87
-5.91
+ *77
+ .8 5
- 2 .1 1
- 3 .2 1
-U .7 8
-23.26
1232
J
F
M
A
M
J
-10.10
30 .SI
30*68
3k6
MISCELLANEOUS MATURITIES 20 TO 30 YEARS
1931
Means
M
j
61.29
57.^6
j
57.79
A
s
0
N
d
59.19
56.19
1+2 .S5
1+2.60
U0.13
J
p
M
A
M
J
33.21*
35.18
35-55
32.32
27.62
23.22
Monthly
Difference
Cumulative
Monthly Decline
- 3.33
+ .33
+1.50
- 3.00
- 3 .3I+
- .2 5
— 2 ,1+7
- 3.33
-6.29
+1 .91+
t .37
-3.23
-1+.70
-i+.iw
-15.95
-12.33
Yearly
Difference
33.67
3^.2^
MISCELLANEOUS MATURITIES OVER 30 YEABS
1931
M
J
J
A
S
6O .63
53.29
59.^6
59.19
55.15
0
h e .50
HH .7 9
H
D
-2 .3 H
-1.17
" .2?
—U.oU
- 2.3*4-
-s.65
*+1.97
-1 .7 1
-2.S2
3^.32
37.^
39.OU
3 U.2 U
31.59
2 7 .*+5
-7.65
+3.12
41.60
-H.SO
“2.65
-U.ll*
1222
J
E
M
A
M
J
-25.1^
-11.59
29 .OU
30.3U
3k7
APPENDIX H
ADVANCES BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
ON OTHER THAN ELIGIBLE COLLATERAL
3U8
ADVANCES BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
ON OTHER THAN ELIGIBLE COLLATERAL
This appendix is in support; of the statement on page 6:
Although it must be recognized that in the case of United
States government obligations member banks may borrow from
Federal Reserve for fifteen days, this is the exceptional
case for other bonds.1’
On pages
and I4.9 of The Federal Reserve System, Its Purposes and
Functions published in 1939 by the Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System it says;
’’Advances may be made by a Federal Reserve Bank to a member
bank on the letter’s promissory note secured by collateral*
An advance secured by eligible paper may have a maturity
of not more than ninety days and is subject to the same
discount or interest charge as eligible paper itself. An
advance secured by other collateral satisfactory to the
Federal Reserve Bank may have a maturity of not more than
four months and is subject to a rate of interest not less
than one-half of one percent per annum above the current
discount rate on eligible paper.”
Ray B. 1/Vesterfield says on p. 651 of Money Credit and Banking in
speaking of these "Lombard Loans.”
"The higher rate on such advances is assumed to be sufficient
to disincline any member to resort to them except in emer­
gency and after all its paper eligible for discount and all
its government obligations are exhausted. In any case dis­
cretion as to granting the request lies with the reserve
authorities who, it is assumed, will take precautions against
abuse of the privilege."
It seems plain that the commercial banker cannot confidently depend
upon the Federal Reserve to lend at all times upon the collateral of
corporate bonds.
Generally speaking,the advance of funds based on fixed
investments is contrary to the philosophy of the Federal Reserve Act.
Furthermore ib fs questionable if, during a general period of bond market
decline, the Federal Reserve would lend even as much as the market value
of corporate bonds.
The commercial bank might better sell the bonds
at the market and not undertake the chance of having its pledged
collateral later decline in value below the face of its note to the
Federal Reserve.
VITAE
Walter Atherton Foy
Born March 20, 19P3# Omaha, Nebraska.
Academic Work
Yale University* Ph.B. (cum laude) 1925*
Major portion of work in history* Minor in economics*
Northwestern University* M*B*A* 193U-Title of Thesis: Defaulted Real Estate Securities in
the Chicago Area in 1932*
Positions Held
1925-1926
Assistant Buyer, Harford Frocks Inc*, subsidiary
of Real Silk Hosiery Mills*
1926-1927
Editor of Instructions, Business Methods Dept*
Western Electric Co*, Kearny, New Jersey*
1927-1928
Assistant Secretary, Bankers Capital Corporation,
I4J4. Wall Street, New York, N# Y.
1928-1935
Investment Statistician, Trust Investment Division,
First National Bank of Chicago*
1935-1937
Bank Investment Counselor, Moody’s Investors Service,
Chicago, Illinois*
1937-19i|D
(to date)
Assistant Professor in Economics and Business
Administration, Loyola University School of
Commerce, Chicago, Illinois*
From February, 1929 to September, 1937 part-time Instructor
in Economics and Business Administration in the evening
division of Loyola University School of Commerce, Chicago,
Illinois*
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