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BRICS’ Role in Global Development up to 2020
Sergey Vasiliev
Deputy Chairman
1
April, 2012
BRICS ROLE IN WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
2000-2010: BRIC –
demonstrated high growth
rates, became drivers of
the world economy
2010-2020: BRIC keep
their role in world
economy, but with lower
growth rates
World GDP, %
Emerging markets
Developed countries
100%
80%
60%
40%
2020-2050: Emerging
markets will produce 6070% of world GDP
20%
0%
1980
1990
2
Source: Goldman Sachs
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
EMERGING MARKETS:
MULTIPLE CENTERS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH
Annual GDP Growth Rate, %
9
Emerging markets
will become new
drivers of the world
economy growth,
demonstrate the
highest growth rate
8
BRIC
7
6
Faster growth in
emerging economies
outside BRIC
N-11
5
4
World
3
Developed
2
1
0
2000-2009
2010-2019
2020-2029
2030-2039
2040-2050
3
N-11: Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Korea, Mexico,
Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, Vietnam
FACTORS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH
2000-2010
Population
growth
4
2020-2050
Small contribution
to growth after
2020
Constant driver
of growth
Capital
accumulation
Factor
productivity
2011-2020
Increasing input to
economic growth
BRICS GROWING CONTRIBUTION TO INTERNATIONAL TRADE
Share of BRICS in world trade (%)
Over the last 20 years
share of BRICS
countries increased
sharply
This growth mainly
determined by
increasing exports to
developed countries
18%
17,1%
16%
14%
Exports
Imports
12%
10%
9,0%
8%
7,5%
6%
4%
3,7%
4,0%
2%
0,8%
0%
5
1990
2000
2011
MUTUAL TRADE AMONG BRICS COUNTRIES
World Trade Flows in 2011 (All Exports = 100%)
To:
From:
BRICS
In recent years mutual
trade between BRICS
countries enlarged
fivefold, but still
remains quite low
BRICS
G3
Other
countries
6
Other countries
G3
1,5%
4,4%
7,4%
7,4%
8,1%
27,5%
14,1%
15,5%
14,0%
CASE FOR NATIONAL SETTLEMENT CURRENCIES
IN FOREIGN TRADE
Benefits
- More transparent pricing in bilateral trade
- Reduce dependence on other currencies fluctuations
- Lower trade transaction costs (estimated up to 4% volume)
What do BRICS development institutions do to extend
international use of national currencies:
Agreement on Financial Cooperation within the BRICS Interbank Cooperation Mechanism
Master Agreement on Extending Facilities in Local Currency under BRICS Interbank
Cooperation Mechanism.
7
Opening new credit lines and implementing joint investment projects on bilateral and
multilateral basis
CO-FINANCING INVESTMENT IN BRICS ECONOMIES:
RDIF EXAMPLE
Bilateral investment among BRICS countries remains very low:
• 1.8 % of total foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows
• 1.2 % of total FDI outflows
Similar may be true for bilateral investment between other emerging countries
Facility to promote
investment:
8
Russian Direct Investment Fund
• $10 billion fund established in 2011 by
Russian government
• Targets equity investments in the Russian
economy
• Mandated to co-invest with large investors
globally
Management Company of the Fund is a 100% subsidiary of Vnesheconombank and
will operate according to international best practices of investment governance.
LONG TERM INVESTMENT CHALLENGE
Investment
needs
Constraints:
В«short-termismВ»
Areas for
action…
… and cooperation
9
Solutions to various structural problems (such
technology transfer, innovation catch-up and
infrastructure demands) in emerging economies
require long-term investment.
Perceived economy growth risks and government
budget deficits preserve В«short-termismВ» in
financing – a key challenge faced by long-term
investors.
Needed steps:
Bring private financing to projects
Implement frameworks to manage environmental and
social risks
Seek favorable financial regulation for long-term
investment
•
•
•
Best practices exchange and joint pilot projects will help
advance in these steps.
Major development finance institutions joined to Long
Term Investors Club to address these challenges.
VNESHECONOMBANK GROUP
Core Russian subsidiaries
VEB CAPITAL
Russian bank for
Small and Medium
Enterprise Support
Roseximbank
VEB Leasing
VEB Capital
(Russia)
(Russia)
(Russia)
(Russia)
0.4% of Total Assets
5.6% of Total Assets
0.3% of Total Assets
3.6% of Total Assets
Representation in CIS countries
Banks bailed out by the Government during crisis
Belvnesheconombank
Prominvestbank
Sviaz-Bank
Globexbank
(Belarus)
(Ukraine)
(Russia)
(Russia)
1.6% of Total Assets
5.0% of Total Assets
6.8% of Total Assets
7.3% of Total Assets
10
1. Assets split provided based on 1H 2011 management accounts
VNESHECONOMBANK STRATEGY 2015:
KEY TARGETS
11
1.1.2011
1.1.2016
INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO, bn RUB
349
850
SHARE OF INNOVATIVE PROJECTS
IN INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO, %
15
20
SME SUPPORT
(THROUGH SUBSIDIARIES), bn RUB
121
150
EXPORT CREDIT FINANCE,
INSURANCE GUARANTEES, bn RUB
25,6
90
Thank you !
9 Ak. Sakharov ave.
Moscow, Russia
tel.: +7 (495) 721-18-63
fax: +7 (499) 975-21-43
www.veb.ru
12
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