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Technology roadmapping

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Centre for Technology Management
UNIDO - Technology Foresight for Practitioners
Fast-start technology
roadmapping
Prague
Thursday 9th October 2003, 09:00 - 13:00
Dr Robert Phaal
Centre for Technology Management
Workshop aim
To provide:
• An introduction to the theory and practice
of technology roadmapping
Centre for Technology Management
Agenda
09:00
Overview
09:10
Technology roadmapping - principles & practice
10:30
Break
11:00
T-Plan �fast-start’ approach
11:20
Group activity - the bicycle of the future
12:30
Discussion - getting started
13:00
Review and close
Centre for Technology Management
Technology roadmapping principles & practice
Centre for Technology Management
Roadmapping - Planning for the Future
Time
M1
Market
P1
Product
Resources
P2
P3
P4
T1
Technology
R&D
programmes
M2
T2
T3
RD 1
RD 2
T4
RD 4
RD 3
RD 6
RD 5
Capital investment / finance
Supply chain
Staff / skills
Centre for Technology Management
Technology roadmapping process
Benefits
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Facilitate the integration of new technology into the business
Support for company strategy and planning processes
Identify new business opportunities for exploiting technology
Provide top level information on the technological direction of the
business
Support communication and co-operation within the business
Identify gaps in market and technical knowledge
Support sourcing decisions, resource allocation, risk management
and exploitation decisions
High-level integrated planning and control
- a common reference / framework
Centre for Technology Management
Uncertainty / risk of
prediction / investment
Time is a key dimension…
Short term
Operations
What to manufacture?
How many of each model?
What materials to order?
quantitative focus
Medium term
Innovation
Which products?
Which markets?
What cost?
Long term
New (?):
- Markets
- Products
- Technologies
- Capabilities
- Organisational structures
- Distribution channels
- Competition
Strategy
Which technologies?
qualitative focus
Time
Centre for Technology Management
Performance
Technology as a dynamic resource
New dominant
technology
(disruptive??)
Technology
discontinuity
Current
dominant
technology
Emerging
Pacing
Technology �S’ curves
Base
Shape influenced by:
• Market demand
• Scientific knowledge
• Investment / innovation
Key
�Turbulence’
Time
Adapted from Bower & Christensen, 1995
Strategic Postures
Time
Courtney et al (HBR, 1997)
3. Reserve the right to play
Performance
2. Adapt to the future
Performance
Performance
1. Shape the future
Time
Time
Centre for Technology Management
Evolution of long range planning approaches
1970
Strategic
planning
1980
Motorola develops
technology
roadmapping
approach
Co-evolution
Policy
1990
Take up in
electronics
sector
2000
Semiconductor
Technology Roadmap
Take up in
other sectors
- companies
- consortia
- government
Foresight
Forecasting
Science fiction
Futures & Scenario planning
2010
Roadmapping
approach
supports
integrated
strategic
planning
Centre for Technology Management
Technology roadmapping
Relationship to the strategic planning process
Market Information
Product-Market analysis
Product-Technology
Options Evaluation
Where are the
boundaries of
the roadmapping
process?
Roadmap
Creation
Defined
Targets
Project
Proposals
Technology Assessment
Identification of Technology
Available / Feasible / Possible
Source: EIRMA, 1997
Centre for Technology Management
Technology roadmapping
Two extremes
1. Market �pull’
2. Technology �push’
- How to reach a goal?
•
•
•
•
•
•
Planning
Market focus
Assumes product market opportunity
Deterministic
Convergent
Customer driven
- What opportunities could arise?
•
•
•
•
Technology focus
Looking for opportunities
Open ended
Divergent
Centre for Technology Management
The �fast-start’ concept:
roadmapping as an ongoing process
Programme
management
3
Project
management
Synchronise
2
Forecasting
Persuade
1
Understand
Simplification
Competitive
analysis
Fast-Start
Resource
allocation
Measure:
Accuracy
and clarity
Product
planning
Portfolio
management
Measure:
Measure:
Aligned
priorities &
decisions
Ongoing
co-ordination
Roadmapping
influence
Corporate
planning
Kappel, 2001
(Lucent Technologies)
Centre for Technology Management
Flexibility of roadmapping
Flexibility is a key strength (and challenge) of the roadmapping
approach, in terms of:
• The wide range of aims that roadmapping can contribute towards
• The timeframe covered by the roadmap (past and future)
• The structure of the roadmap (layers and sub-layers), which can be adapted to
fit the particular application
• The process that is followed to develop and maintain the roadmap/s
• The graphical format that is selected to present information and communicate
the roadmap
• The set of existing processes, tools and information sources in the firm, which
the roadmap and roadmapping process need to integrate with
Centre for Technology Management
Types of roadmap: purpose and format
Purpose
Capability
planning
Product
planning
Format
Bars
Multiple layers
Table
Strategic
planning
Single layer
Long range
planning
Generic TRM
Knowledge asset
planning
Graph
Text
Pictorial
Programme
planning
Process
planning
Flow
Integration
planning
Centre for Technology Management
Generic roadmap - links resources to objectives
Layers connect:
Past
Market / Customers / Competitors /
Environment / Industry /
Business / Trends / Drivers / Threats /
Objectives / Milestones / Strategy
Products / Services / Applications /
Services / Capabilities / Performance /
Features / Components / Families /
Processes / Systems / Platforms /
Opportunities / Requirements / Risks
Technology /
Competences /
Knowledge
Other resources:
Skills / Partnerships / Suppliers /
Facilities / Infrastructure / Organisation /
Standards / Science / Finance / R&D Projects
Now
Plans
Future
Vision
Time
(know-when)
�purpose’
(know-why)
�delivery’
(know-what)
�resources’
(know-how)
Centre for Technology Management
Technology roadmaps
Examples of applications
• Motorola
- To encourage business managers to give proper attention to the technological future
- To provide a vehicle for organising the forecasting process
- To communicate to design & development engineers and marketing personnel which
technologies will be required in future products
• Lucas
- To provide integrated project planning for engineering systems
- To supply sound technological inputs to the budget process
• Post Office Research Group
- To communicate the research plans to business sponsors
- To help focus and prioritisation of research activity
- To identify where expert knowledge is required in the future
Centre for Technology Management
Motorola Roadmap Matrix
- summary of product plans and technology forecast
Year
Tuning
Selectivity
1982
1983
Push button
Display
1985
1986
1988
LEDs
1991
Voice actuated
Data
Maps
3u CMOS
1u CMOS
Liquid crystal
Vehicular LAN
Fluorescence
Single wire
Digital modulation
PRODUCTS
1990
Digital signal processors
Paging
5u CMOS
1989
Touch pad - Synthesizers
SAWs
Stereo
Linear
1987
Push button - Synthesizers
Ceramic resonators
Subcarrier function
IC technology
1984
Glass fibre
500 kHz bandwidth
RECEIVER 1
RECEIVER 2
RECEIVER 3
Stereo
Plus:
Plus:
Scan
Personal
paging
Seek
NEXT GENERATION
FUTURE GENERATION
Plus:
A NEW SERVICE
Stock market
Road information
Remote
amplifiers
Remote controls
Super Hi Fi
Local maps
Centre for Technology Management
Lucas roadmaps - a required input to the budget process
97
External
Influences
System
Demonstrator
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
External influences
1
2
3
4
1.
2.
3.
4.
.
Component /
Sub-system
Market Trends
a)
b)
Technology
Project
c)
d)
.
.
Centre for Technology Management
Lucas Technology Road-map activity coding
Activity Description
Market Trends Addressed
Principal Participants/Collaborators
Project Status
External Funding Source
Time Window
Centre for Technology Management
Lucas - linking Technology to Business Planning
Business Planning
PP+TRMs
External :
Markets
Competitors
Technologies
...
GapAnalysis
Analysis
Gap
Gap
Analysis
Benchmarking
Benchmarking
Benchmarking
Forecasting
Forecasting
Forecasting
Acquisition
Planning
Make
Technology
Technology
Technology
Audit
Audit
Audit
Technology Base
R&D
Projects
Buy
Acquisitions
JVs
Licensing
Centre for Technology Management
Post Office Research - communicating & prioritising
Triggers /
issues
Time
Uncertain /
high impact
Germany
liberalised
Regulator
action?
Home shopping
takes off
New business Bespoke solutions Evolve
Market
trends
Existing products
& services
Best practice
E capability
Capabilities
Evolve
Increasing transport constraints,
environmental pressure, tolls, etc.
European reach
Global reach
(Europe & NA)
Timed dated products
Grow express
business
Cost reduction & efficiency improvements
EU
liberalised
Changing mail mix (> packets)
Ongoing
E-business fulfilment
Capacity & Evolve
efficiency
improvement
Network
competence
Evolve
Flexible & dynamic
�distribution’ network
Intelligent transport technologies
Routing & scheduling
Research
activity
Materials handling
Track & trace
Environmental
Key:
Requires investment
Colours relate to
existing sub-themes
Network integration
GAPS ?
Supply chain
E-access
12% reduction
in emissions
Centre for Technology Management
Foresight Vehicle technology roadmapping initiative
• The overall goal of the technology roadmapping initiative was
to support the aims of the Foresight Vehicle consortium, providing
a framework for ongoing investment in UK research partnerships,
focused on achieving sustainable wealth creation and quality of life
• This required identification of market and industry trends and
drivers that impact future requirements for road transport in the UK,
and the associated technology needs and opportunities
• The roadmapping process encouraged communication and
discussion within a creative workshop environment and the
roadmap provides a framework for continuing this more broadly
in the future
Centre for Technology Management
Road transport system: key themes
Social
Economic
Environmental
Political
Infrastructural
Technological
Social, economic and
environmental drivers
reflect the three
cornerstones of
sustainable development
Technology, policy and
infrastructure
enable or constrain
progress towards the
social, economic and
environmental goals
Centre for Technology Management
Foresight Vehicle technology roadmap: architecture
Market /
Industry
drivers
Now
S
T
E
E
P
I
+5 years
+10 years
+15 years
Trends drivers, key issues and uncertainties
Performance
measures
and targets
Evolution of required and desirable functional
performance of road transport systems of the future
Technical
Group areas
Required and desired technological response,
including research requirements
+20 years
Vision
Time
Centre for Technology Management
Foresight Vehicle technology roadmap: process
Engine and powertrain (E&PT)
Planning
(Oct �01)
Market
and
industry
trends
and
drivers
Road
transport
system
performance
measures
and targets
Hybrid, electric and alternatively
fuelled vehicles (HEV)
Consultation
Advanced software, sensors,
electronics and telematics (ASSET)
Synthesis
Advanced structures
and materials (FASMAT)
Design and manufacturing
Processes (DMaP)
Co-ordination, facilitation, data collection, analysis and structuring of information
• 10 month duration
• 10 workshops
• More than 130 participants
• More than 60 organisations
Reporting
(Sept �02)
Centre for Technology Management
Example
detailed roadmap content (1 of 28): Social trends & drivers
2002
2007
2012
80-85% of journeys
by car 39,40,103
75% of all journeys
are under 5 miles
and 45% are less
than 2 miles 31
Growth in personal mobility (70% of
drivers use car for leisure day trips
every week or month; 50% expect to be
making more by 2020) 42
Nearly one third of
UK households do
not have a car (13
million people) 31
Many different
stakeholder groups,
with different needs
from transport
system
Vehicles sold increasingly as
�lifestyle’ choices ?
Increasing
complexity of
lives ?
Increasing female vehicle purchase /
ownership (women are more likely to
describe their cars as �stylish’, �sporty’ or
�fun’) 42
Balance between
People and jobs
global, national
have moved out of
and local
the city and town
solutions ?
centres 103
Trend towards
career
�downsizing’ for
improved
lifestyle ?
UK car-centric
culture
1999: UK �leads’
world in vehicle
theft (twice global
average at
2.5%); cost of
vehicle-related
crime ВЈ6bn 46,47
2000:
3,500 road traffic
deaths and 40,000
serious injuries in
UK, at an estimated
cost of ВЈ13.3bn
(40,000 deaths and
1.7 million injuries in
EU, representing a
cost of 2% of GDP)
8,37,39,40
Key:
Journey times increasing (70% longer
by 2016 in peak travel periods) 67
Increasing proportion of women in
paid employment (9.9 million in
1984 to 12.2 million in 1999) 73
More than half of drivers exceed speed
limits on motorways, dual carriageways
and residential roads 66
Individual
�time
budget’ for
travel
remains
constant ?
2010: Passenger
numbers through
UK airports
increase by 50% 30
Between 8 and
20% of carowning
households
experience
vehicle-related
crime each year,
depending on
region 41
Mobility & congestion
Increasing
concern about
crime, security
and safety
Lifestyle & attitudes
2010: 50%
increase in rail
passenger miles 30
2031: 40% increase
in bus / coach
vehicle miles,
compared to 1996 1
2022: 70%
increase in journey
times in many UK
cities 1996 80
2010: 25% of UK
workforce
teleworking at
least two days per
week 57
Shift in social
attitudes to
speeding
Younger
generation more
IT-literate
2007: working at home becoming
common (currently more than 66% of
European organisations with more
than 500 employees already practice
teleworking) 28,39,40
Health, safety & security
New working /
living patterns
Legal issues and
frameworks ?
Shift from car ownership
to car access ?
Increased
use of car
pools ?
2015: 400 million
people live in
megacities of more
than 10 million
inhabitants 57
Social
attitudes
towards road
transport and
the
environment?
2016: 4 million (25%)
increase in housing (80%
single-person), increasing
demand for travel 1,67
Continued
growth of
cities and
towns, mainly
in South East
2022
2031: 57% increase in
UK road traffic,
compared to 1996 80,103
journeys 30
Increasing
mobile
working
Demographics
2015: 150%
increase in
international air
traffic; 100%
increase in
domestic,
compared to
1995 1
2012: Bicycle
2010: 20-50%
increase in European journeys
31
road passenger and double
13,80
haulage traffic
Frustration with congestion and public
2010: 10% increase transport continues ?
(journey time no longer predictable)
in bus passenger
Increasing
leisure time 39,40
More residential traffic calming schemes
and pedestrianisation of town centres
Demand to
reduce deaths
and injuries on
roads
2017
2016: 25% increase in number
of UK households, 80% of
growth due to single person
households; 1.3% rural land
use predicted to change to
urban land use 39,40
2030: population
in the UK is
forecast to
increase by
3.3%, to 61
million 1,39,40,67,
after which it will
decline to 57
million by 2050 73
2030: 22- 27% of
UK population
over retirement
age, compared to
19% in 1998;
pension costs rise
from 4.5-5.5% of
GDP 1,25,39,40
2021: Households
in South-east
forecast to grow by
19% on 2001
levels 41
Vision
Cheap,
safe,
reliable,
clean
convenient,
comfortable
transport
for all
Centre for Technology Management
Example summary roadmap content:
Social trends & drivers
2002
2007
2012
2017
2022
Growing demand for mobility
Society
Congestion and pressure on infrastructure
Changing working and living patterns
Social attitudes towards
transport and the environment
Ageing population
Increased mobile and home working
More single person households
Continued growth of cities and towns
Continued growth of
South East
Consumer demand for greater variety, quality and performance of products and services
Increasing concern for health, safety and security
Cheap, safe,
convenient,
comfortable,
clean and
secure
transport
for all
Centre for Technology Management
Example summary roadmap content:
Social performance measures & targets
Society
2002
Aim for
�equitable’
mobility
(same price
for same
journey for
all groups
in society)
2007
2005: 70% user
satisfaction with
all transport
modes (measure
of �convenience’)
2012
2010: 80% user
satisfaction with
all transport
modes
2017
2022
2020: 85%
user
satisfaction
with all
transport
modes
2010: Vehicle security (resistance to attack) 5
- Door locks: 5 minutes; Secure storage area in vehicle: 5
minutes
- Alarm systems: 5 minutes; Immobilisers: 20 minutes; Window
glass: 2 minutes
2005: Road
traffic noise
reduced by 3dBA
from 1998 levels
2010: Road traffic
noise reduced by
4dBA
2020: Road traffic noise reduced
by 6dBA;
Homologated noise reduction of
4dBA and 8dBA for light and
heavy vehicles, respectively
Vehicle
adaptability
Urban people
transport
Effective
selling and
customer
support
Centre for Technology Management
Example summary roadmap content:
Hybrid, electric and alternatively fuelled vehicle technology
Hybrid, electric & alternatively
fuelled vehicles
2002
2007
2012
2017
2022
Hybrid, electric and alternatively fuelled vehicle technology development, leading to new fuel and power systems,
such as hydrogen and fuel cells, which satisfy future social, economic and environmental goals
Increasing
variety and
use of hybrid,
electric,
multi-fuel and
alternatively
fuelled
vehicle
technologies,
and
development
of fuels and
infrastructure
Continuous improvement in terms of range, life, safety and
Pilot trials and local
performance; development of legislation and standards
fuel distribution
infrastructure
development
trucks and buses first
50kW fuel cells
and subsystems
200kW fuel cells
and subsystems
for heavy vehicles
Use of hydrogen in IC engines, and with
fuel cells as auxiliary power units
Development of electrics, electronics and battery
systems for new engine and powertrain systems
Development of supporting technologies (storage systems, compressors,
air supply, reforming, materials, thermal management, etc.)
Hydrogen fuel
cell
technology
and
infrastructure
becoming
viable on a
large scale
?
Sustainable
vehicle fuel
and engine
systems, that
meet the
needs of
society,
industry and
the
environment
Centre for Technology Management
Faraday Partnership technology roadmapping
Aims:
• To develop a �first-cut’ technology roadmap for Faraday Partnership,
bringing together industrial and research communities
• To collect, structure and share knowledge about recent and future
developments in markets and technology, together with requirements
and capabilities of future applications
• To identify key emerging strategic issues, research challenges,
and way forward
Centre for Technology Management
Faraday Partnership technology roadmapping approach
Architecture
Now
Past
Trends &
drivers
Process
Plans
Future
1a
2a
3
Applications
2b
Technology
2a
1b
2b
Vision
1a) Map trends & drivers
1b) Map technology
2a) Application needs
2b) Application capabilities
3) Applications
- Map
- Research challenges
- Skills
- Way forward
Centre for Technology Management
Faraday Partnership technology roadmap process
Phase 1
Phase 2
Potential TRM �modes’
Detailed TRM
Summary TRM
Planning
1 day
Workshop
(knowledge
mapping &
strategic
review)
Review
meeting
Strategic TRM
Thematic TRM
Template TRM
Project TRM
Co-ordination, facilitation, data collection, analysis and structuring of information
Roll-out
Centre for Technology Management
Software for technology roadmapping
Software supports the roadmapping process, in terms of data storage
Integration and communication, particularly as the process matures…
A number of systems are used:
• MS PowerPoint or other graphics software
• MS Project or other Gantt software
• MS Excel or other spreadsheet software
• US Office of Naval Research �Graphical Modelling System’ (GMS) - free!
- http://www.onr.navy.mil/gms/gms.asp
• The Learning Trust �Geneva Vision Strategist’ - enterprise solution (Motorola)
- http://www.learningtrust.com
Centre for Technology Management
Useful references
• Willyard and McClees (1987), �Motorola's Technology Roadmap process’, Research Management, Vol 30, No 5, pp13-19
• EIRMA (1997) �Technology Roadmapping - delivering business vision’, Working Group Report No 52
• Groenveld (1997) �Roadmapping integrates business and technology’, Research Technology Management, Vol 40, No. 5, pp. 48-55
• Kostoff, R.N. (1997), �Science and Technology Roadmaps’, Defense Technical Information Center,
http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/kostoff/index.html
• Garcia & Bray (1997) �Fundamentals of technology roadmapping’, Sandia National Lab, http://www.sandia/gov SAND97-0665
• Schaller(1999) master roadmap bibliography: http://mason.gmu.edu/~rschalle/master.html
• Kappel (2001) �Perspectives on roadmaps: how organizations talk about the future’, Journal of Product Innovation Management,
Vol 18, pp39-50
• Research Technology Management - special edition on technology roadmapping, Vol 42, No. 2, March 2003 (5 papers, including
Domino Printing Sciences, Lucent Technologies, Roche and Rockwell Automation experience)
• OEM Roadmaps - lots of links to (mainly) sector roadmaps: http://www.oemroadmaps.com
• US Department of Energy guide to applying science and technology roadmapping in environmental management (Draft), DoE-EM50,
July 2000, http://emi-web.inel.gov/roadmap/links.html
• Australian guide to developing technology roadmaps - technology planning for business competitiveness, August 2001:
http://industry.gov.au/library/content_library/ 13_technology_road_mapping.pdf
• Industry Canada - Technology roadmapping - a strategy for success, including a guide for government employees:
http://strategis.ic.gc.ca/epic/internet/intrm-crt.nsf/vwGeneratedInterE/Home
Centre for Technology Management
T-Plan �fast-start’ approach
Centre for Technology Management
Roadmapping challenges
50
Response (%)
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Starting up
the TRM
process
Developing a
robust TRM
process
Roll-out of
the TRM
process
Keeping the
TRM process
'alive' on an
ongoing
basis
Other
Source: CTM survey, 1999
Centre for Technology Management
T-Plan aims
• To support the start-up of company-specific TRM processes
• To establish key linkages between technology resources and
business drivers
• To identify important gaps in market, product and technology
intelligence
• To develop a �first-cut’ technology roadmap
• To support technology strategy and planning initiatives in the firm
• To support communication between technical and commercial
functions
http://www-mmd.eng.cam.ac.uk/ctm/pubs/TPlan/index.htm
Centre for Technology Management
T-Plan Applications
Sector / product
Aims
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
-
Industrial coding (x3)
Postal services (x10)
Security / access systems
Labelling software
Surface coatings
Medical packaging (x2)
Automotive sub-systems
Power transmission
Railway infrastructure (x3)
National infrastructure
Building controls
Road transport
Technical consulting (x6)
Automotive / Aerospace
Academic (x2)
Biochemicals
Satellite navigation
Food processing
Pneumatic systems
Emerging technologies
Automotive
Retail (x2)
Construction
Product planning
Integration of R&D into business; business planning
Product planning
Product planning
New product development process
Business reconfiguration
Service development & planning
Business opportunities of new technology
Capital investment planning and technology insertion
Research programme planning
New product / service opportunity; business reconfiguration
Defining the national research agenda for the sector
New product / service development, strategy
Corporate co-operation and synergy
Strategic planning
Research priorities / network development
Research priorities / network development
Research priorities / network development
Innovation strategy
Research priorities
Innovation opportunities
Business and product strategy
Global production strategy
Centre for Technology Management
Fast-start TRM process
Standard and Customised process
Roadmapping
Standard process
Planning
Integrated
product-technology
strategic planning
Roll-out
Customised process
General strategic
planning
Centre for Technology Management
Standard T-Plan process
Procedure: 4 half-day workshops
Workshop 1
Market
• Performance
dimensions
• Market / business
drivers
• Prioritisation
• SWOT
• Gaps
• Setting up
the process
Workshop 2
Product
• Product feature
concepts
• Grouping
• Impact ranking
• Product strategy
• Gaps
Workshop 3
Technology
Workshop 4
Roadmapping
• Technology
solutions
• Grouping
• Impact ranking
• Gaps
• Linking
technology
resources to
future market
opportunities
• Gaps
• Managing the process
• Following on
from the process
Centre for Technology Management
Roadmap input data & structure development
Technology
Roadmap
time
Product /
Service /
Production
Technology /
Resources
Technology solutions
Business /
Market
Product features
Analysis
Grids
Product features
Business / Market drivers
Centre for Technology Management
Example Market-Product grid (Softco)
Market
Softco
Ranking:
2
4
6
7
5
7
5
7
9
6
10
=1
= -1
пЃ“ Cell scores x Driver priority
Normalised: max score = 10
8.3
4.9
4. Services
5.0
4.1
3.8
5. Data management
10.0
10.0
3.0
6. Labelling
9.6
9.9
9.5
5.9
5.8
2.5
8. Flexible implementation
6.8
7.5
10.0
9. Softco requirements
0.7
0.8
2.7
10. User friendly
3.2
4.2
5.2
7. Global solution
C. Time to market
8.7
3. Compliance
B. No. 1
1.1
A. Reusability
4.2
8. Future proof
4.7
7. Connectivity
2. Validated software
6. Ease of use
4.5
5. Leading edge
4.8
4. Globalisation
5.5
3. Cost of trial
1. Security
Product
Feature
Concepts
2. Integrity of trial
Softco
1
8
CRO
6
2
Major
Pharmaceutical
7
10
1 year after release
10
10
E. Improving bottom line
Market /
Business
Drivers
9
9
D. Motivation of staff
Major Pharmaceutical:
CRO:
1. Time to market of drug
Prioritisation:
(scale of 10)
*
**
* 1 for difficulty, 2 for size ** Payback later
Centre for Technology Management
0.7
0.8
2.7
3.2
4.2
5.2
Ranking:
=1
= -1
пЃ“ Cell scores x Driver priority
Normalised: max score = 10
CRO
Softco
6.8
7.5
10.0
Major
Pharmaceutical
5.9
5.8
2.5
10. User friendly
9.6
9.9
9.5
9. Softco requirements
10.0
10.0
3.0
8. Flexible implementation
5.0
4.1
3.8
6. Labelling
*
8.7
8.3
4.9
5. Data management
Technology
Areas
1. Security
Product
Feature
Concepts
*
4.7
4.2
1.1
4. Services
*
5.5
4.8
4.5
3. Compliance
Major Pharmaceutical:
CRO:
Sofco
2. Validated software
Prioritisation:
- from Grid 1
(scale of 10)
7. Global solution
Example Product-Technology grid (Softco)
1. Alliances
7.8
7.6
7.2
2. System architecture
10.0
10.0
10.0
3. Design
7.1
7.2
7.1
4. �Soft’ technologies
6.9
6.8
6.5
5. Output technologies
6.4
6.4
6.3
6. Securing technologies
8.6
8.4
7.6
8.3
8.2
7.5
7. Core technologies (re-use)
**
* must have
** -ve re-use past, + re-use future
Centre for Technology Management
Example first-cut technology roadmap (Softco)
Year 0
Market /
Business
Product Features
1. Security
Competitor
threat
Time out
security levels
User
rights
Digitally
signed labels TA6
Audit
trail
Advanced
automation
Form TA5
printing
Validated protocol Multi-language
database
design module
TA7
6. Labelling
Labelling
Printer
XML data
libraries independent format
TA2
7. Global
Solution
UNICODE
TA2
8. Flexible
Implementation
Windows
platform
TA2
support
Customisable
Software
protection
User
documentation
2. Sys. Arch.
3. Design
4. �Soft’ Tech.
5. Output Tech.
Domain expert
partner
Network of
contacts
Legal
expertise
Other bar- TA7
code types
User group
& conference
Graphic
User formatrepresentation
ting tool
of R&S phrases for forms
Global
support
Database partners
(harmonised phrases
& legislation)
CH / JAVA / CORBA
component architecture
Platform inde- Modular design
A
UML / OOD
spec. pendent design
Develop
Validatable Build
Dev.
Mngmnt
Test
eChem
sales
Team
team GNP procedures from
plan
tech.
model
(FDA)
source
stability leader
Report
generation
Inter-site User-docs EU lang Email
security (EU lang) modules notifications
TA1 for UI
User-docs Far East TA1
XML data
WAP
language
import / export (Far East)
TA1
modules for UI
Multiple
Internet
platform
compatible
support
Web
enabled
Protocol
design wizards
Enhanced
network of
contacts
Appoint
distributors
outside UK
ISO 9000
TickIT
On-line
tutorials
ERP
link
TCP / IP
CGI / ISAPI
Internet
updates
24 hour
support
Enhanced
report generation
Write once
technology
Rapid &
Pipe ++
7. Core Tech.
Raise
ВЈ x million
Recruitment
software &
management
New
building
TA1
Label set
libraries
6. Securing Tech.
Other
Resources
TA5 TA6
Database
escrow TA6
Biometric
passwords
TA2
10. User
Friendly
1. Alliances
Label
design
module
Watermarked
forms & reports
Billing &
inventory
management
Statistical
analysis
Secure
archiving
Windows
Code 39 & 128 Blinded
printers:
PDF 417
labels
PS / PCLS / PDF
barcodes TA7
Enhanced
randomisation
Upgrade path
for existing
users
Multi-level
training
4. Services
5. Data
Management
Phase 5 Year 3
Validated
Ver. 330
Validated
Ver. 2
Validated
Ver. 1
Protocol
Randomised
design module design package
Phase 4
Digital signatured
audit trail TA6
2.Validated
Software
3. Compliance
Phase 3 Year 2
Phase 2
Version 1
release Price: ВЈ10
-15K/seat
Competitor
threat? Market
launch
Legislation?
9. Company
Requirements
Technology Areas
Year 1
Phase 1
Enhanced
development
team stability
Scanning &
storage of
hand-written forms
TAx = link to Technology
Area x
Centre for Technology Management
Group activity the bicycle of the future
Centre for Technology Management
Biko: Introduction
• Biko, a small traditional but well regarded bicycle manufacturer
has just been taken over by a large sports equipment and
clothing manufacturer, Sportco
• The new owner has requested a technology roadmap outlining
how Biko proposes to develop its market offering over the next
10 years, and if convinced by their business case is willing to
make significant investment
• A preliminary market review and SWOT analysis have resulted
in two areas of potential interest being identified:
1. Power assisted bicycles
2. High performance �lifestyle’ bicycles
Centre for Technology Management
Biko: Instructions
Read handout & follow step-by-step guidance
• Step 1: Market & Business
• Step 2: Product & Service
• Step 3: Technology
Resources /
Other
Technology
Product
Business Market
(Internal) (external)
Drivers
Centre for Technology Management
Now
+2y
+5y
Time
+ 10 y
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Feedback
• What lessons have been learnt about roadmapping?
• How would you take it forward from here?
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Discussion - getting started
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Planning
(customisation checklist)
• Context: scope, focus, aims and resources
• Roadmap architecture
• Process
• Participants
• Standard process:
- Follow the guide
• Customised process:
- Creative and collaborative
design activity
• Workshop scheduling
• Integration: systems, processes & information
• Preparatory work
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Roadmapping design: an iterative collaborative process
Focus, scope, aims
Plan
Business need
Domain
knowledge
dialogue
Business
owner
Architecture
TRM process
owner
Process
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Implementing roadmapping
Individual planning & discussion
See planning sheet:
– Objectives, scope, stakeholders, architecture, process,
information sources, key issues, next steps
• Individually (or with colleagues) work through �planning sheet’
- 10 minutes
• Pull out key points for discussion
Centre for Technology Management
Roadmapping success factors
Response (%)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Clear business need
Desire to develop effective business processes
Company culture & politics supported
participation / progress
Right people / functions were involved
Commitment from senior management
Required data / information / knowledge available
Timing of initiative was appropriate
Clear and effective process for developing TRM
Effective tools / techniques / methods
Effective facilitation / training
Other
Source: CTM survey, 1999
Centre for Technology Management
Communication roadmaps
• What is the message?
• Who are you communicating to?
• Information representation / graphic design challenge,
drawing on detailed TRM… focus on the �story’ and
�big picture’
Centre for Technology Management
Conclusions
Benefits of roadmapping:
• A focus for integrated strategic planning
• Can be applied in a wide range of contexts
• Supports communication and network development
Challenges of roadmapping:
• Not a magic bullet - initially more questions than answers likely
• Maintaining the process - the real benefit lies in its ongoing use
• The process and roadmap typically need to be customised
Centre for Technology Management
Review
• Has the workshop met your expectations?
• Will you give roadmapping a try?
• Any questions?
Further support:
• Contact us: Rob Phaal at rp108@eng.cam.ac.uk
• TRM User Group: http://www-mmd.eng.cam.ac.uk/ctm/trmug.htm
Centre for Technology Management
Close
Centre for Technology Management
Example Biko output
Product
Style
Comfort
+2y
New owner
- Investment
Demonstrator
Designer look
Ergonomic
design
Technology
On-line design
Customised frame
Direct drive
design Materials /
mechanics
“Chip-on-bike”
Networked
factory
Automatic”
mass customisation
Ergonomics
CADCAM
Visualisation
Security
Communications
Alliances: gear / drive; styling; electronics
Skills
Capital
Branding & promotion
+ 10 y
2nd Generation
“Design your own bike”
Moulded
seat
Networked
business
Time
Legislation: VAT off bikes; cycle paths, etc.
New Range
Expand range
Electronics
Resources
/ Other
Competition
Trends: leisure, health, disposable income
Technical
Internet
+5y
Sportco
ВЈ500-1000
“Super-bike”
Business Market
(Int.)
(Ext.)
Drivers
Now
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