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Task Force on POPs, 1-3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
Results from EMEP on
emission inventories,
monitoring and modelling of POPs
Sergey Dutchak
EMEP/Meteorological Synthesizing
Centre – East (MSC-E)
Moscow, Russia
1
EMEP/MSC-E
Task Force on POPs, 1 – 3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
Protocol on POPs
Items addressed to EMEP
Article 3
Basic obligations
…
8. Each Party shall develop and maintain
emission inventories for the substances listed in
annex … It shall report this information in
accordance with the (EMEP) reporting
requirements set out in article 9 below.
2
EMEP/MSC-E
Task Force on POPs, 1 – 3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
Protocol on POPs
Article 9
Reporting
…
3. In good time before each annual session of
the Executive Body, EMEP shall provide
information on the long-range transport and
deposition of POPs.
3
EMEP/MSC-E
Task Force on POPs, 1 – 3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
Protocol on POPs
Article 8
Research, Development and Monitoring
The Parties shall encourage research related,
but not limited, to:
(a) Emissions, long-range transport and
deposition levels and their modelling.
(b) Pollutant pathways and inventories in
representative ecosystems.
4
EMEP/MSC-E
Task Force on POPs, 1 – 3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
Protocol on POPs
PREAMBLE INCLUDES STATEMENT ABOUT
INTERCONTINENTAL TRANSPORT
Recognizing that emissions of many POPs are
transported across international boundaries and
are deposited in Europe, North America and the
Arctic, far from their site of origin, and that the
atmosphere is the dominant medium of transport.
5
EMEP/MSC-E
Task Force on POPs, 1 – 3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
EMEP output in the period 1998-2003
in the following areas:
пЃ± Emissions
пЃ± Monitoring
пЃ± Modelling
6
EMEP/MSC-E
Task Force on POPs, 1 – 3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
Emissions
EMEP/CORINAIR - Atmospheric Emission Inventories
Guidebook (including POP sections);
пЃ± EMEP Guidelines for estimating and reporting
emission data
пЃ± Official information on POP emissions:
Pollutants
PAH
PCDD/F
HCB
Countries Pollutants
26
PCB
26
HCH
13
Countries
15
8
Short-chained chlorinated paraffins (SCCP) - 5
Pentachlorophenol (PCP) - 10
7
EMEP/MSC-E
Task Force on POPs, 1 – 3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
PCDD/F official emission data, g TEQ/y
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Austria
160
134
75
67
56
58
59
59
55
51
50
52
Czech Rep.
1252
1220
1220
1140
1135
1135
922
830
767
643
744
620
33
31
32
33
34
32
32
32
32
31
31
Country
Finland
30
France
1859
1933
1958
2023
2014
1809
1592
1105
957
658
560
468
Hungary
157
151
126
122
104
116
108
103
94
93
99
104
Italy
504
501
477
445
373
307
273
271
253
244
245
240
Monaco
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
Norway
130
98
96
95
94
70
49
41
35
39
34
34
Poland
529
535
517
592
520
515
484
440
381
381
333
447
Spain
186
195
206
200
192
162
159
132
134
141
146
142
Sweden
70
63
55
57
52
49
47
44
43
42
44
45
The UK
1181
1161
1136
1089
1002
874
644
471
411
395
346
341
12 countries –for all years from 1990 to 2001
EMEP/MSC-E
8
Task Force on POPs, 1 – 3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
Emission expert estimates
Pollutant
PAH
PCDD/F
PCB
HCB
g-HCH
PCB
Level
Year
1990
EMEP
Expert
Baart et al., 1995
Berdowski et al.,
1997
1970-1995 Pacyna et al., 1999
Global 1936-2001 Breivik et al., 2002
9
EMEP/MSC-E
Task Force on POPs, 1 – 3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
Trend of emissions
Europe
France
30
25
25
20
20
k g T E Q /y
30
15
10
15
10
5
5
0
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
PCDD/Fs expert estimates, kg TEQ/y
PCDD/Fs official data, kg TEQ/y
10
EMEP/MSC-E
2000
Task Force on POPs, 1 – 3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
Changes in spatial distribution
of emissions
1980
2000
PCDD/F
EMEP/MSC-E
11
EMEP/MSC-E
S pain
S lovak ia
R ussia
H unga ry
S w ede n
P oland
C roatia
C zech_ R ep
Italy
B ulgaria
S loven ia
A ustria
F rance
UK
N orw ay
B elgium
N ether lands
R ed u c tio n
Task Force on POPs, 1 – 3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
Reduction of PCDD/F official emissions
1990 - 2000
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
12
Task Force on POPs, 1 – 3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
Spatial distribution of emissions
in the Northern Hemisphere
Expert estimates – PCB, 1996
EMEP/MSC-E
13
Task Force on POPs, 1-3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
Monitoring of POPs (CCC)
EMEP monitoring network
13 sites
Air
Precipitation
Air+prec.
Monitoring Strategy for 2004 - 2009
Core sites Level 1
No POPs
Core sites Level 2
PAHs, PCBs,
HCB, chlordane,
HCHs and DDTs
(priority compounds)
Core sites Level 3
More specific
measurements
(e.g PCDD/F congener
composition)
14
EMEP/MSC-E
Task Force on POPs, 1-3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
Monitoring of POPs (CCC)
Sites
From
POPs in air and aerosol
POPs in precipitation
BE04
1996
Pesticides, HCHs
CZ03
1999
PAHs, PCBs, pest., HCHs
FI06
1996
PAHs, PCBs
DE01
1996
PAHs, PCBs, pest., HCB, HCHs
DE09
1996
PAHs, PCBs, pest., HCB, HCHs
IS91
1995
IE02
1994
LT15
2000
NL91
1996
NO99
1991
HCB, HCHs
NO42
1993
PAHs, pest., HCHs, HCB, PCBs
SE02
1994
PAHs, PCBs
PAHs, PCBs
SE12
1995
PAHs, PCBs
PAHs, PCBs
PCBs, pest., HCB, HCHs
PAHs, PCBs
PCBs, pest., HCB, HCHs
PCBs, pest., HCHs,
Benzo[a]pyrene
Benzo[a]pyrene
g-HCH
HCB, HCHs
15
EMEP/MSC-E
Task Force on POPs, 1-3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
Monitoring of POPs (CCC)
150
150
N O 99
N O 42
NO 99
NO 42
CZ03
SE02
F I9 6
IS 9 1
IS 91
100
p g /m
p g /m
3
3
100
50
0
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
Trend of annual averaged
HCB concentrations in the
surface air
EMEP/MSC-E
50
0
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
Trend in annual average
g-HCH concentration in
air and aerosols 16
Task Force on POPs, 1-3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
Modelling
1. Model approach
2. Model output:
пЃ± Pathways
пЃ± Intercontinental transport
 Spatial distribution / “hot sports”
пЃ± Long-term trends
пЃ± Source-receptors
пЃ± Risk assessment
пЃ± New substances
пЃ± Country-specific information
EMEP/MSC-E
17
Task Force on POPs, 1-3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
Multicompartment approach
for POP modelling
D
e
g
r
a
d
a
t
i
o
n
Emissions
Atmosphere
Out
Vegetation
Soil
Sea
18
EMEP/MSC-E
Task Force on POPs, 1-3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
Regional/hemispheric approach
EMEP
30 - 80%
Compound
Outflow, %
POP emissions
B[a]P
30
PCB
50
PCDD/F
60
HCH
75
HCB
80
19
EMEP/MSC-E
Task Force on POPs, 1-3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
EMEP model approach is based on
POP model intercomparison
List of the models:
пѓ�
пѓ�
пѓ�
пѓ�
пѓ�
пѓ�
пѓ�
пѓ�
EVN-BETR
UK
UK-MODEL
UK
ChemRange
Switzerland
ClimoChem
Switzerland
ELPOS
Germany
ADOM-POP
Germany
SimpleBox the Netherlands
EUROS
the Netherlands
First meeting –
пѓ�
пѓ�
пѓ�
пѓ�
пѓ�
пѓ�
пѓ�
пѓ�
пѓ�
CAM/POPs
Canada
MEDIA
Canada
GLOBO-POP
Canada
DEHM-POP
Denmark
INERIS
France
G-CIEMS
Japan
POPCYCLING-Baltic Norway
HYSPLIT 4
USA
MSCE-POP
MSC-E
November 2002, Moscow
Second meeting – December 2003, Moscow
Next meeting –
EMEP/MSC-E
August 2004,
Moscow
20
Task Force on POPs, 1-3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
Model output
Pathways of atmospheric transport
May
January
October
Monthly
dynamics of
PCB-153
transport from
North-western
Europe sources
for 1996
21
EMEP/MSC-E
Task Force on POPs, 1-3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
Model output
Intercontinental transport of PCBs
Spatial
distribution of
contamination
by PCB-153
from American
sources in 1996
22
EMEP/MSC-E
Task Force on POPs, 1-3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
Model output
Spatial distribution of PCB in
different media
g/km2/y
g/km2/y
Emissions
Air concentrations
Depositions
23
EMEP/MSC-E
Task Force on POPs, 1-3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
Model output
Spatial distribution of PCB in
different media
Soil
concentrations
Vegetation
concentrations
Seawater
concentrations
24
EMEP/MSC-E
Task Force on POPs, 1-3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
Model output
3
2 .5
20
15
10
5
2
300
S o il c o nc e ntra tio ns
240
1 .5
180
1
120
0 .5
A ir c o nc e ntra tio ns
60
0
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
PCDD/Fs emissions
0
PCDD/Fs concentrations in air
and soil
25
EMEP/MSC-E
S o il, fg T E Q /g
25
A ir, fg T E Q /m
E m iss ion s, kg T E Q /y
Long-term trends in Europe
Task Force on POPs, 1-3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
Model output
Reduction of PCDD/Fs concentrations
in air
1980
EMEP/MSC-E
2000
26
EMEP/MSC-E
0
Concentration decrease 2-10 times for 26 countries
27
B u lg a ria
A rm e n ia
Cze ch Re p u b lic
G eo rg ia
S lo vakia
Ukra ine
A ze rb aija n
Cro a tia
S e rb ia an d M o n te ne g ro
P o la n d
T h e F Y R of M a ce do n ia
B o sn ia & He rze g o vin a
Hu n g a ry
Re p . o f M o ld o va
Ro m a n ia
T u rkey
B e la ru s
Ru ssia
Cyp ru s
G ree ce
S w it ze rla nd
K a za kh st an
S lo ven ia
A lb a n ia
L ithu a n ia
Ita ly
A u stria
L a tvia
P o rtu g a l
G ree n la n d
E sto n ia
L u xe m b o urg
M a lt a
De n m a rk
Ire la nd
M o n ako
No rw ay
Icela n d
B e lg ium
S p a in
Un ite d K in gd o m
F in la n d
S w e de n
F ra n ce
G erm a n y
Ne th e rlan d s
Task Force on POPs, 1-3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
Model output
Decrease of PCDD/Fs air
concentrations in European countries
for 1980-2000
10
8
6
4
2
Task Force on POPs, 1-3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
Model output
PCDD/Fs concentrations in soil
1980
2000
little changes in comparison with air
EMEP/MSC-E
28
Task Force on POPs, 1-3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
Model output
Distribution of POPs between environment
compartments (mass balance for 20 years)
PCB
S ea
V e g e ta tio n
4%
6%
PCDD/Fs
A ir
1%
Soil – 89%
Sea
V e g e ta tio n
3%
4%
HCB
S ea
Air
0 .0 2 %
S o il
Soil – 93%
g-HCH
1%
0 .1 %
A ir
0 .4 %
Soil – 99%
89%
V e g e ta tio n
0 .5 %
V e g e ta tio n
Air
S o il
2%
15%
S o il
S o il
93%
99%
Sea – 82%
Sea
82%
EMEP/MSC-E
29
EMEP/MSC-E
0%
R e-em issio n in % fro m n atio n al em issio n s in 2000
S w itze r la n d
C ze ch _ R e p .
U kra in e
S lo va ki a
Hungary
P o la n d
R o m a n ia
D e n m a rk
C ro a tia
R u ssia
UK
B u lg a ri a
B e lg iu m
S p a in
Ita ly
G e rm a n y
G re e ce
F ra n ce
R e-em ission
Task Force on POPs, 1-3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
Model output
PCDD/Fs re-emission flux from soil
15%
10%
5%
30
A lbania
R ep. of M oldova
N etherlands
A rm enia
B elarus
A ustria
C yprus
G reece
S w itzerland
R ussia
S lovakia
B elgium
D enm ark
C roatia
S w eden
H ungary
F Y R of M ac edonia
U kraine
B ulgaria
S lovenia
Latvia
B osnia& H er zegovin
C zech R epu blic
E stonia
N orw ay
Ireland
Lithuania
A zerbaijan
K azakhstan
R om ania
S erbia& M on tenegro
P ortugal
F inland
Italy
P oland
U nited K ing dom
F rance
S pain
G erm any
Iceland
G eorgia
Im p o rt, %
Task Force on POPs, 1-3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
Model output
Transboundary pollution
100
80
80 - 20%
60
40
20
0
Transboundary contribution to the air concentration
of BaP in European countries in 2000
31
EMEP/MSC-E
Task Force on POPs, 1-3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
Model output
Source-receptor relationship (France)
O th e r
6%
U n ite d K in g d o m
2%
Ita ly 3 %
S p a in 4 %
G e rm a n y 8 %
F ra n c e
77%
Contribution of European countries
to B[a]P deposition in 2000
23 % as total
EMEP/MSC-E
Contribution of transboundary
depositions of B[a]P in 2000
to different grid squares from
32
10 up to 60 %
Task Force on POPs, 1-3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
Model output
INTERCONTINENTAL TRANSPORT
Source-receptor relationship (Arctic)
Emissions
E m issio n s
Deposition to the Arctic
D ep o sitio n to th e A rctic
S ou th -eastern
A sia
A frica an d
3%
C en tral A sia
S ou th -eastern
A sia
A frica an d
R u ssia
6%
C en tral A sia
11%
5%
13%
S ou th -eastern
E u rop e
20%
R u ssia
18%
A m erica
S ou th -eastern
E u rop e
A m erica
22%
17%
17%
N orth -w estern E u rop e
N orth -w estern E u rop e
28%
40%
Contributions of main source groups of the Northern
Hemisphere to the deposition of PCBs to the Arctic
33
EMEP/MSC-E
Task Force on POPs, 1-3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
Contribution to the Risk Assessment
Working Group on Effects (WGE)
Areas where mean
diurnal
concentrations of
B[a]P in air exceed
1 ng/m3 more than
100 days per year
34
EMEP/MSC-E
Task Force on POPs, 1-3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
Contribution to (WGE)
пЃ± Deposition on different types of underlying
surface
пЃ± Concentration of POP in various media with
resolution 50x50/150x150 km
пЃ±
Long-term trends of contaminations in
different compartments
35
EMEP/MSC-E
Task Force on POPs, 1-3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
New Substances
Long-range Transport Potential and Overall Persistence
D ico fo l
Dicofol
a- End o sulfan
a- Endosulfan
PC N -47
P C N - 47
P eC Bz
P eC Bz
H C BD
HC BD
0
2000
4000
6000
T rans p o rt Dis tanc e (Euro p e), km
Transport distance, km
8000
0
200
400
600
800
O verall P ers is tanc e (Euro p e), d ays
Overall
Persistence, days
PCN-47 – polychlorinated naphtalen;
PeCBz – pentachlorobenzene; HCBD - hexachlorobutadiene
36
EMEP/MSC-E
Task Force on POPs, 1-3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
Country-specific report on POPs
Contents:
Transboundary pollution
by POPs
• Emissions
• Depositions
• Concentrations in:
- Air
- Soil
- Vegetation
• Transboundary transport
37
EMEP/MSC-E
Task Force on POPs, 1-3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
Cooperation
International organizations
пЃ± AMAP: participation in the RAIPON/GEF project
пЃ± HELCOM: evaluation of g-HCH pollution of the Baltic Sea
пЃ± OECD: POP model intercomparison study
пЃ± UNEP: participation in the UNEP/GEF Project
“Regionally Based Assessment of POPs
пЃ± Joint projects with countries
www.msceast.org
38
EMEP/MSC-E
Task Force on POPs, 1-3 March 2004, the Hague, the Netherlands
Conclusions
пЃ± Submission and quality of official emission data
needs further improvement
пЃ± Monitoring data in different environmental
compartments are highly appreciated
пЃ± Assessment of POP pollution in Europe should
take into account intercontinental transport
пЃ± More close cooperation with other international
organizations such as UNEP, AMAP, OSPAR,
OECD is highly important
39
EMEP/MSC-E
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