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Climate Change Impact to
the River Runoff:
Regional Study for the
Central Asian Region
NATALYA AGALTSEVA
Research Hydrometeorological
institute (NIGMI)
Uzbekistan
Basic problems
1.
2.
Climate change in Uzbekistan
The approach to the assessment of climate changes impact on the rivers runoff
on the base of climatic scenarios: problems and solutions
3. Climate change impact on water resources of Aral See Basin
3. The water resources monitoring
Climate change in Uzbekistan
Change of mean annual temperature in Uzbekistan
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
2005
2001
1997
1993
1989
1985
1981
Change of annual sums of precipitation in Uzbekistan
200
150
2005
2001
1997
1993
1989
1985
1981
1977
1973
1969
1965
1961
1957
1949
1945
1941
50
1937
100
1933
percent of norms 1961 – 1990
There are significant variations
of precipitation under their slow
tendency to increasing.
The complicated reaction of
runoff forming zone and runoff
dissemination zone to the recent
climate changes and
anthropogenic impacts takes
place.
1977
1973
1969
1965
1961
1957
1953
1949
1945
1941
1937
-2.50
1933
-2.00
1953
∆t
0.50
Data of monitoring show:
There is a tendency to increasing
of the air temperature and changes
of cold and hot year seasons
lengths for Central Asia territory;
Climate dryness becomes more
severe;
2004 year was the warmest
during all period of observation
Climate scenario design for Uzbekistan
Grid points
SCENGEN
and
reference
stations of
Uzbekistan.
Metodology IPCC :
Application of MAGICC: selection of the emission scenarios from IPCC
SRES storylines
Application of SCENGEN: analysis of model’s uncertainty over the region
and selection of the appropriate GCMs
Application of statistical downscaling method:
Creation of archive in grid points based on observation data (area averaged
anomalies are considered as best forecasts of selected GCM).
Construction of regression equations between data in grid points and
station data.
Climate scenario design for Uzbekistan
For construction of
regional climate scenarios
it is necessary to use GHG
(greenhouse gases)
scenarios.
А1(A1B,A1T,A1FI), А2, В1,
В2 GHG scenarios are
describing various variants
of social and economic
development.
А1, А2 – the scenarios
describing a situation,
when preference to global
priorities,
В1, В2 – regional
B1. The emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social and
environmental sustainability.
Climate scenario design for Uzbekistan
Rise in temperature°С
L a t : 4 2 .5
6
L o n : 6 2 .5
5
4
CGCM1 - TR
Для оценки ожидаемых
изменений месячных
температур воздуха и
осадков были выбраны
шесть GCM моделей
CSIRO- TR
3
ECHA M4
Ha d CM2
2
CCSR- NIES
GFDL - TR
1
0
JA N
FEB
MA R A PR MA Y
JUN
JUL
A UG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Change of precipitation, % from norm
Six GCM models had been
chosen for an estimation of
expected changes of monthly
air temperatures and
precipitation
120
100
80
U K TR
60
H adC M 2
G F D L-TR
40
E CHA M 4
C S IR O -TR
20
C G C M 1-TR
0
-20
-40
JA N
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JU N
JU L
A UG
SEP
O CT
NO V
DE C
Вывод:
Усреднение ряда моделей
позволяет уменьшить
неопределенность сценариев
Conclusion:
Averaging of outputs by a few
models allows to reduce
uncertainty of scenarios
Выводы
•Для проведения оценки воздействия изменения климата
в Узбекистане предлагается
использовать региональные климатические сценарии, построенные в соответствии со
сценариями эмиссии А2 (неблагоприятный ) и В2 (умеренный).
На ближнесрочную (2030) и среднесрочную (2050) перспективы различия в ожидаемых
изменениях температуры будут невелики, а к 2080 году возрастут.
Conclusions
It is supposed to use the regional climate scenarios are based upon emission scenarios A2
(unfavorable) and B2 (moderate) to assess climate changes in Uzbekistan.
The air temperature changes will be insignificant for short-term (2030) and middle-short (2050)
perspectives but go up by 2080.
The expected air temperature changes by A2, B2 scenarios for
Uzbekistan
A2
B2
by 2030
about 1.0-1.5
1.6-1.8
by 2050
about 2.0-2.6
2.3-2.6
by 2080
about 3.9-4.5
3.2-3.6
The river flow is concentrated in the two
largest transboundary rivers:
the Amudarya (78.5 km3 per year)
and Syrdarya River (37.1 km3 per
year),
which run down from the mountains to
the plains, cross the deserts and
flow into the Aral Sea
Sustainable
development
needs to have the
rational use of the
limited fresh
water resources
Т u rk m e n is ta n
Afg a n is n a n
0 ,0 3 %
U zb e k is ta n 8
K irg h iziya
34%
17%
T a d jik is ta n
36%
K a za k h s ta n
5%
Methodical approach to the assessment of climate changes
impact to the rivers runoff
SNOW COVER
FORMATION
Melting water and
rain
contribution
The degree of the impact the expected
climate changes to the river run-off in
region can be assessed with help of the
mathematical models of run-off forming
Q пов
q
E
q~ q Q пов
Glacial
contribution
Q1
W1
Q
Transformation
of contributions
to runoff
Q 1 .2
W2
P
SET OF THE MODELS
Q2
Q m in
System AISHF
Computation and
Forecasting of Runoff
Computation of the
Snowmelt and Rain
Contribution
Yes
Glaciers?
Computation of
Glacial Runoff
No
Model of
Transformation
An automated information system of runoff formation has been developed
for practical application of the mathematical models of runoff formation
Climate change impact on water resources of Aral See Basin
The complicated reaction of runoff forming zone and runoff dissemination zone
to the recent climate changes and anthropogenic impacts takes place.
70
60
50
40
Талое
снеговое
Дождевое
30
20
Сток с
ледников
10
0
Seasonal snow plays a key role in the feeding of
the rivers in the Aral sea basin. Some reduction
snow supplies in the basins most of all rivers is
observed
Мн.
Ср.
Мл.
Sources of the mountain
rivers feeding:
a seasonal snow cover
melting,
historical accumulation of
ice and firn in the glaciers,
rains are very sensitive to
change of climatic
parameters
CHANGES OF THE PAMIR-ALAY GLACIATION EXTENT IN
THE 2nd PART OF XX CENTURY
During 1957 – 1980 the Pamir-Alay glaciers lost 113 km3 (19%) of their
water supplies. The lost raised up to 14% more of supplies by 1957.
Glaciers lost will be increased to 10% more of the initial supplies by 202025.
N
• Glaciological
W
E
S
ð.
observations were run
in the runoff formation
zones since 1957.
Ñ
àð
üÿ
#
12
11
9
#
#
#
#
10
21
7
#
3
20
# 23
13
24
#
#
19
#
#
#
#
#
18
22
#
#
#
14
Ï ëî ù àäü î ëåäåí åí èÿ
â 1 9 8 0 ã. ,êâ .êì
0 - 172
173 - 486
#
# 487 - 1239
#
#
#
1
15
•The glaciological
8
6
5
4
2
#
#
#
#
#
16
26
28
#
#
#
27
25
#
29
30
#3 1
34
33
#
ð.Ì óð ãà á
í èã
àí
17
32
35
#
ð.Ï ÿ í äæ
ð .Â
à õø
ð .Ê
#
#
#
àô
ðü
äà
àí
Ñó
ðõ
#
èð
ÿ
#
ð.
observations were
practically stopped
during last 10-15 years.
ä
ûð
37
#
ð.
#
Àì
óä
àð
üÿ
38
36
È çì å í å í è å ï ë î ù à ä è
î ë å ä å í å í è ÿ , êâ.êì
î ò -1 5 5 ä î -9 4
î ò -9 3 ä î -2 8
î ò -2 7 ä î 1
Glaciers are the single source of pure water in Central Asia
Reduction of the glacier area in the separate river basins
Currently only the separate glacial
areas are estimated on the base of
satellite information
km2
300
P ske m
Balance of the
Abramov glacier
mass in 1977
(-161 cm)
S h ah imar d an
250
S oh
100
Isfara
0
-100
200
-200
?
-300
-400
150
-500
-600
-700
During 1968-98 the Abramov
glacier lost 21 meter of water layer
and it amounts 18% of its mass.
By 2020 году loss of 17% of its ice
is expected
?
100
?
50
?
0
19 5 7
1 9 80
2000
2 0 30
20 5 0
2 08 0
Climate change impact on water resources of Aral See Basin
Для сценария А2 к 2030
году а бассейнах
Амударьи и Сырдарьи
существенных
изменений водных
ресурсов не ожидается .
The significant water
resources` changes are not
expected by 2030 per A2
scenario.
К 2050 году возможно
сокращение водных
ресурсов по бассейну
реки Амударьи на 1015%. По бассейну реки
Сырдарьи возможно
сокращение на 2-5%.
Water resources decrease
up to 10-15% for
Amudarya and up to 2-5%
for Syrdarya by 2050 is
expected
Climate change impact on water resources of Aral See Basin
2030
норма
700
Our preliminary calculations
have shown:
600
There is tendency to
decreasing of the snow
supplies;
Glaciers continue to be
reduced with rates of 0,2 % - 1
% one year;
Increase of the evaporation in
river basins;
Growth in the variability of
the precipitation and
intensification of all factors for
the years with drought
With the further increase of
air temperatures the river
runoff decreases.
400
Приток в Чарвакское вдхр
Приток в Чарвакское вдхр (нормы)
500
300
200
100
0
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
Rivers of Amu Darya river basin and
small rivers are more sensitive to
warming climate
It is expected that runoff variability of
all basins will go up.
33
Climate change impact on water resources of Aral See Basin
Выводы:
Таким образом, ни один из рассмотренных климатических сценариев,
отражающих «потепление климата», не предполагает увеличения
располагаемых водных ресурсов.
Ожидаемое повышение испаряемости в условиях потепления увеличит
потери воды в зонах орошения, что потребует дополнительных затрат
воды.
При существующей в настоящее время ситуации в орошаемом
земледелии, изменение климата неизбежно приведет к усилению водного
дефицита
Conclusion:
Thus, none of the considered climatic scenarios of « warming of a climate »,
does not assume increase in available water resources.
Expected increase of evaporation under conditions of climate warming will
increase losses of water in the irrigated areas that will increase water demand
there.
Climate change will increase of water deficit for irrigation needs under current
situation in irrigation.
Thank you for attention
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