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Fairfield County: Office Market Demand Analysis

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Providing real estate valuation, consulting,
and due diligence services to:
•Individuals
•Lenders
•Corporations
•And their tax and legal advisors
Objective
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Highlight trends in this market place
Identify areas of risk and opportunity
Bring strategic awareness to
–
–
Market participants
Municipal leaders
Market Drivers
п‚· Office markets are driven by jobs
 “Jobs” are changing
-
Cost reduction / Technology
Education
Legal/Tax structure
Society
Definitions
• Large Floor Plate User – Corp. tenants over
15,000 SF in market
• Public
• Space needs decision not made here
• Small Floor Plate User < 5,000 SF
• Private Companies
• Professional
• Owner Lives Here
Survey Parameters
• Class A & B Office with GBA > 5,000 SF
• Locations – various logical office markets
–
–
–
–
–
–
Greenwich
Stamford
Norwalk
Westport/Fairfield
Trumbull/Shelton
Danbury LMA
What we will look at
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Brief history – How we got here
Where the jobs are locating currently
Impact of job growth on this office market
Emerging Trends
Opportunity Index – graphical representation
of risk
Fairfield County- Historically
Square Footage Additions
Square Footage Added
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
> 40k
25k - 40k
15k - 25k
5k - 15k
10,000,000
5,000,000
<1950s 1950s
1960s
1970s
Decade
1980s
1990s
2000s
Historical Space Additions
• Large floor plate buildings added in SF
1980’s - 25,000,000
1990’s - 9,000,000
2000’s - 5,000,000
Total - 39,000,000
Fairfield County- Historically
Persistently High Vacancy Rates Since 2001
18.00%
16.00%
14.00%
Vacancy Rate
12.00%
10.00%
8.00%
6.00%
Vacancy Rate
4.00%
Equilibrium
2.00%
0.00%
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Year
2003
2004
Big Picture
Dynamic Job Market
• Information based jobs are now going to the
lowest cost provider
• Higher end jobs are filling in the space – just
not filling in enough space
• Will there be enough jobs to fill the space?
Trailing 12 Months
• Strong leasing of 2.5 million SF
• Offset by downsizing, relocations, new space
– Purdue Pharma’s OxyContin issue results in 300,000 SF giveback
– International Paper’s relocation down south dumps 120,000 SF
– 901 Merritt coming on line with 375,000 SF
• 18% increase in smaller deals (10k-20k SF)
• Musical Chairs
• Investment sales are hot
Jobs
1. Who is going to occupy the current and
projected future vacant space?
–
Leaner, more educated workforce
2. Where will those jobs be located?
–
In smaller floor plate buildings
Lease Transactions by Locale
% of Transactions Market Share Activity
Total Transactions 478
6%
3%
Greenwich
Stamford
Norwalk
Danbury - Brookfield
Trumbull - Shelton
Fairfield - Westport
Bridgeport - Stratford
Mid Fairfield
11%
10%
6%
39%
9%
16%
Lease Transactions by SF Group
7%
5%
3%
0-5,000 SF
5,000-10,000 SF
10,000-20,000 SF
20,000-50,000 SF
50,000+ SF
15%
70%
Average SF Leased by Locale
Greenwich
Stamford
Norwalk
Danbury - Brookfield
Trumbull - Shelton
Fairfield - Westport
Bridgeport - Stratford
Mid Fairfield
4,321
2,300
8,266
3,992
7,766
7,081
4,401
10,151
Median SF Leased by Locale
Greenwich
Stamford
Norwalk
Danbury - Brookfield
Trumbull - Shelton
Fairfield - Westport
Bridgeport - Stratford
Mid Fairfield
1,800
1,090
2,915
1,968
3,060
4,250
2,850
2,110
By Building Age
50,000 SF and Greater
25.00%
20.00%
15.00%
145 Buildings
78 Buildings
10.00%
1980-1990
After 1990
5.00%
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
20
99
19
98
19
19
97
0.00%
Fairfield County Overall Vacancy Rates
20%
18%
293 Buildings
16%
5,000-25,000 SF
>50,000 SF
Equilibrium
14%
919 Buildings
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
TD
Q
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
19
99
19
98
19
97
0%
Fairfield County Pipeline
• Approximately 5.2 million square
feet of office space have a reasonable
expectation of coming online over
the next 10 years.
Fairfield County Pipeline
New Development Square Footage
2,000,000
1,800,000
5.2 Million SF Total
1,600,000
New Development Square Footage
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
Norwalk
Fairfield
Stamford
Danbury
Shelton
Bridgeport Wilton
Municipality
Trumbull
Monroe
Ridgefield Southport
Periodic County Employment Growth
43,000 New Jobs Added
105,000
95,000
15,000 Jobs
85,000
75,000
7,000 Jobs
65,000
55,000
45,000
2010-2013 Growth
2006-2010 Growth
7,000 Jobs
Current Employment
35,000
25,000
15,000
5,000
n
Co
st
tion
c
u
r
l
t
l
s
y
h
n
TTU atio ancia siona Healt pitalit e Job nmen
rm Fin ofes n &
os ervic over
H
r
o
Info
i
G
P
S
t
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uca ure a Other
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E
s
Lei
Forecasted County Vacancy Rates
18.00%
16.00%
Market Equilibrium 2012
14.00%
Vacancy Rate
12.00%
10.00%
8.00%
6.00%
Vacancy Rate
Equilibrium
4.00%
2.00%
0.00%
98
19
99
19
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
Ye ar
Now add the proposed space additions in:
Norwalk & Fairfield
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
Forecasted County Vacancy Rates
18.00%
Market Equilibrium - 2015
16.00%
14.00%
Vacancy Rate
12.00%
10.00%
8.00%
6.00%
Equilibrium
Vacancy Rate
4.00%
2.00%
0.00%
98
19
99
19
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
Ye ar
Now add the proposed space additions in:
Norwalk, Fairfield & Stamford
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
Forecasted County Vacancy Rates
18.00%
Market Equilibrium Not Achieved
16.00%
14.00%
Vacancy Rate
12.00%
10.00%
8.00%
6.00%
Vacancy Rate
Equilibrium
4.00%
2.00%
0.00%
98
19
99
19
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
Ye ar
Now add the proposed space additions in:
All Fairfield County
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
Alternative Workplace Strategies
• Historical Average of 195 per person
• What happens at 150 SF and 125 SF
• Why – reduced costs and lower space needs
per employee
Effects of AWS
18.00%
16.00%
14.00%
Vacancy Rate
12.00%
10.00%
8.00%
6.00%
Equilibrium
195 SQFT Per Person
150 SQFT Per Person
120 SQFT Per Person
4.00%
Assuming all pipeline additions
2.00%
0.00%
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
Year
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
Opportunity Index
< 5,000 SF
5,000-10,000 SF 10,000-20,000 SF 20,000-50,000 SF
> 50,000 SF
Greenwich
Stamford
Norwalk
1,807,050
6,700
Danbury-Brookfield
1,486,500
40,150
16,200
Trumbull-Shelton
592,234
Bridgeport-Stratford
70,000
Westport-Fairfield
800,000
Numbers represent partial anticipated new space online in the next 10 years
•Green – Vacancy lower than 12% with a down trend
•Yellow – Vacancy 12% - 15% with up trend
•Red – Vacancy greater than 15% with up trend
For a copy of the Opportunity
Index, or more information
www.AustinMcGuire.com
See client section
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