Further Alterations to the London Plan 2014 Consultation draft Purpose of the Further Alterations to the London Plan (FALP) вЂў Develop concept of the Plan as the вЂ�London expression of the National Planning Policy FrameworkвЂ™; вЂў Provide robust, interim planning framework to address the key housing and employment issues arising from a substantial increase in population and to support recession recovery, until the long term implications of these are clear вЂў Minor changes in terms of fact; changes in national policy; support for the MayorвЂ™s Housing and other strategies and where relevant address other advice to the Mayor eg from the Outer London Commission. LondonвЂ™s demographic challenge вЂў London population 2001 (revised):7.34 mil вЂў London population 2011 (Census):8.17 mil = 83,000 pa increase BUT London Plan 2011 вЂ“ 2031 assumes 51,000pa AND new GLA trend projection 2011 вЂ“ 2036 suggests 76,000 pa, and over 100k in earlier yearsвЂ¦. LondonвЂ™s demographic challenge Population growth 1971 - 2036 LondonвЂ™s demographic challenge Age structure change 2011 - 2036 LondonвЂ™s demographic challenge Distribution of population growth 2011 - 2036 LondonвЂ™s employment growth Distribution of employment growth The office policy review process вЂў Trends and emerging market issues NB recession: structural cf cyclical changes вЂў Quantum of growth вЂў Nature of growth вЂў Distribution of growth вЂў Key issue: CAZ and competing land uses вЂў Key issue: Outer London - managing consolidation and PD rights вЂў Other policy issues eg вЂ�mega-schemes вЂў Market testing вЂў Plan, monitor and manage Market data: supply and demand Office starts, Central London, 1984-2011 Market data: supply and demand Availability and take-up, Central London, 1990-2011 Market data: supply and demand Central London office rents, 1980вЂ“2011 (2011 prices) Market data: benchmark 1 Ratio: permissions to average previous three years starts Market data: benchmark 2 City availability ratio versus headline rent, 1986-2011 Employment and floorspace forecasts Office employment forecasts by borough, 2011-2031 Borough London 2011 2031 2011 - 31 2011-31 % change 1,741,382 2,174,478 433,096 25% City 296,577 358,946 62,369 21% Westminster 317,967 370,319 52,352 17% Camden 134,257 179,887 45,630 34% Tower Hamlets 127,374 162,424 35,051 28% Southwark 106,474 136,943 30,469 29% Islington 98,751 127,243 28,491 29% Hackney 30,620 39,959 9,339 31% Employment and floorspace forecasts London needs an additional five million sq m by 2031 Borough London 2011-31 floorspace (Sq m NIA) 2011-31 floorspace (Sq m GIA) 5,098,405 6,454,862 City 734,203 929,541 Westminster 616,291 780,258 Camden 537,161 680,075 Tower Hamlets 412,616 522,394 Southwark 358,685 454,116 Islington 335,401 424,637 Hackney 109,941 139,191 Prospects for non-CAZ office centres London office stock change, 2000-12 Concentration of growth in Tower Hamlets and the City is clear. Fringe boroughs of Camden, Southwark and Islington increased by c 200,000 sq m. Relatively low growth in Westminster. Outer LondonвЂ™s demise is clear. Croydon and Harrow each experienced a loss of over 100,000 sq m. Prospects for non-CAZ office centres Office floorspace completions in Outer London, 2000-08 In 2008, no new office buildings were built in nine of 20 Outer London boroughs. In any of the five years leading up to 2008, between 10 and 13 Outer London boroughs delivered no new office construction. The picture was particularly acute in the East London boroughs. Workstyles and occupation densities Occupancy densities, BCO research 2013 Sector Corporate Professional Public TMT Financial 2.5 million sq m; 381 properties; 1,331 floors Mean: 10.9 sq m Density sq m NIA 13.1 12.3 12.1 10.5 9.7 LondonвЂ™s mega schemes: first generation LondonвЂ™s mega schemes: second generation Office to residential London floorspace losses 2009-2012 Stage Number of sites B1 floorspace losses (sq m) Residential units Completed 767 -505,800 11,400 Started 379 -515,100 13,200 Not started 1,019 -654,700 14,400 Total 2,165 -1,675,600 39,000 Office to residential Loss of B1 to residential - % of total London losses Borough Westminster Tower Hamlets Croydon City Lambeth Kensington & Chelsea Camden Islington Southwark Hammersmith & Fulham London (sq m) % of B1 floorspace losses Completed Started Not started 31 19 7 5 8 8 2 2 4 8 2 11 5 5 3 4 2 3 3 1 -505,800 -515,100 16 12 4 9 3 2 4 6 7 6 -654,700 Total (sq m) -361,500 -138,200 -104,600 -82,700 -77,700 -77,200 -76,600 -73,000 -69,500 -62,500 -1,675,600 Hybrid office/industrial activity Audio-visual equipment installation Cash and carry Design and manufacture of applied arts E-trading Event catering Freight forwarding Graphic design Maintenance contractor Manufacturer of sweets Oriental food supplier Recording equipment repair Short-run digital printing Specialist provider of gift wrapping Wine importer Production Assembly Craftwork Customisation Design Engineering Food preparation Graphic design Maintenance Packing Printing Repair Storage & consolidation Support Management and administration Goods dispatch/receipt Customer support (call centre) Customer consultation Demonstration Retail & wholesale sales Sales & marketing Technology Training Software development Showroom Entertainment and hospitality Conclusions from LOPR 12 Occupiers вЂў Structural slowdown in office economy = lower demand growth. вЂў Changes to business process + workstyles = spaceless growth. вЂў Public sector rationalisation. Business geography вЂў Looser business geography, with shifting and emerging clusters. вЂў Further concentration of business activity in mega schemes. вЂў Less demand in Outer London? Less demand in West London? Workplace вЂў Working practices: flexible working styles; utilisation. вЂў Diversity of stock (quality, size, location) for a diverse occupier base. вЂў Loose fit buildings: economic, lower spec, flexible space. Conclusions from LOPR 12 Property market вЂў Implications of the mega scheme pipeline: plenty of capacity. вЂў Outer London: further decline? 1960s/1970s stock a lost cause? вЂў More refurb and less new build? Spatial planning policy вЂў Capacity is not the issue: issue is more sensitive spatial policy. вЂў TMT: you canвЂ™t plan creativity! вЂў Mixed use space and how to integrate office space. The known unknowns вЂў Employment forecasts and economic change? вЂў Hub airport strategy: potentially huge impact on west London offices? вЂў The impact of resi values on marginalising commercial activity? Retail policy review process вЂў Trends and emerging market issues NB вЂ�austerityвЂ™, population, multi channel вЂў Quantum and nature of growth: independent assessment вЂў Distribution of growth вЂў Key issue: town centres first вЂ“ London approach вЂў Key issue: retail and resi - integrated action вЂў Other policy issues eg out of centre, PD rights вЂў Market testing вЂў Plan, monitor and manage The drivers of change: assessing the balance between retail supply and shopping demand SUPPLY DEMAND Improved Retail space efficiency Loss to Internet Major Retail development nodes Economic growth Pipeline of Retail developments Population growth Existing Retail supply Existing demand population and spend вЂњSpecial forms of tradingвЂќ assumptions вЂ“ projected share of non-store retail sales Demand - residential spend by centre 2011 Demand - tourist spend by centre 2011 Demand - commuter spend by centre 2011 Supply - current floorspace provision Supply - current vacancy Supply - current pipeline вЂ¦.and also in the wider city region (nb вЂ�Duty to CooperateвЂ™) Experian scenarios = вЂ�what if?вЂ™ вЂ¦. and, for example, adding in 4 (or 8) major development nodes Brent Cross+ 40% Stratford +40% Westfield +25% Romford +25% Uxbridge +40% Kingston+ 25% Croydon+ 25% Bromley +25% Growth scenarios Scenario 2011 ВЈ18.6 bll. 2036 ВЈbll: Gross floorspace requirement 2011 вЂ“ 2036 mll sq m Net floorspace requirement 2011 вЂ“ 2036 mll sq m Baseline ВЈ39.2 2.2 0.94 Pipeline ВЈ39.5 1.6 0.37 4 Nodes ВЈ39.6 1.6 0.40 8 Nodes ВЈ39.8 1.7 0.48 Quality adjustments ВЈ39.7 1.7 0.48 вЂ¦gives, at LB level, for the вЂ�PipelineвЂ™, a net balance ofвЂ¦ вЂ¦or for the вЂ�8 NodesвЂ™ scenario, a net balance of вЂ¦.. вЂ¦ or for the вЂ�Quality AdjustmentвЂ™ scenario, a net balance ofвЂ¦ вЂ¦. also available at centre level eg if all pipeline constructed and 4 nodes вЂ¦. Brent Cross, Westfield, Westfield Stratford & Croydon Base spend 2036 top shopping centres Croydon gains It impacts Kingston, Bromley, Sutton and Bexleyheath Westfield Stratford It impacts Stratford and Ilford The 2011 Plan town centre network: is a network based approach still the best to achieve the MayorвЂ™s objectives? вЂњHow should the town centre network respond to changing levels and patterns of consumer expenditureвЂќ вЂў Do these scenarios reflect what might actually happen? Alternatives? вЂў Retain existing вЂ�town centre firstвЂ™ policy вЂў How far can we go with existing policies/SPG in addressing these challenges? вЂў Are the challenges so great that we need to change existing policy through FALP? вЂў If so, how and over what timescale? How can the housing potential of town centres be realised? Existing policyвЂ¦ вЂў Accommodating residential development in town centres вЂў Housing from surplus offices (redevelopment / conversions) вЂў Implementation of mixed use and housing вЂў Housing density вЂ¦and average household size increasing from 2.3 to 2.5вЂ¦. вЂў 2011 London Plan assumed household size would decline from 2.34 to 2.19 persons to 2031 вЂў approximated to 34,000 extra (and generally small) households pa вЂўBUT вЂў 2011 Census shows 2.47 average across London with a lot of local variation вЂў GLA projection suggests c40,000 pa more households 2011 вЂ“ 2026 вЂ¦and housing requirement could be 49 62k pa вЂўGeneral housing implications: higher overall requirement with more small households in some places, more big (over crowded?) ones elsewhere? вЂ¦.what role can town centres have in addressing this need? вЂў Great uncertainty over long term future pop and hhld growth вЂў Must plan responsibly/sustainably: considerable capacity already therefore not GB development/new town вЂў Emerging SHLAA suggests conventional approach may find capacity for +32k pa вЂў BUT how to fill the gap between this and need: key roles for town centres and Opportunity/ Intensification Areas вЂ¦..possible policy approaches and mechanisms for town centre intensification вЂў Link with response to reconfiguration of town centre economic/social roles вЂў Retail and office floorspace contraction; social, service and civic expansion? вЂў Varies by centre type - and local circs вЂў вЂ¦. and with PTAL вЂў Flexibility to go to the top of the density range (and above in some circs?) вЂў How to reconcile with local character objectives вЂў How to enhance quality of the centres themselves вЂ“ for C21st вЂў What partnership/funding arrangements required? The policy responseвЂ¦. Consultation draft Further Alterations to the London Plan The office policy response: Further Alterations to the London Plan вЂў вЂњwhere justified by local and strategic office demand and supply assessments and in areas identified in the LDF as having a particular need for local office provision, provide protection for small scale offices (under 500sqm) within the CAZ.вЂќ вЂў вЂњwhere justified by local and strategic office demand assessments and in areas identified in LDF as having a particular need for local office provision, require residential proposals within the CAZ which would otherwise result in the loss of office space to make a proportionate contribution to provision of new office space within, or nearby, the development.вЂќ The retail/ town centres policy response: Further Alterations to the London Plan вЂў Update retail need figures taking account of changes in consumer expenditure behaviour вЂў Net comparison need 0.4 вЂ“ 1.6 mll sq m cf 1.3 вЂ“ 2.2 mll sq in 2011 Plan вЂў Strong cross ref to Policy 2.15 on different approaches to development in small, medium sized and larger centres вЂў Links London Plan policy to proposed retail PD rights criteria вЂў Planning criteria to help manage вЂ�negative clustersвЂ™ eg of betting shops, takeaways Town centre network Potential future changes to the town centre network FALP Timetable 12 week public consultation from 15 January to 10 April 2014 FALP launch event at City Hall on 31st January 2014 at 2pm Series of consultation events with voluntary sector, business sector, POS event, the wider South East, 5 London sub region. EIP late summer 2014 Final publication spring 2015 Questions?