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The office and retail market in London

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Further
Alterations
to the
London Plan
2014
Consultation draft
Purpose of the Further Alterations to
the London Plan (FALP)
• Develop concept of the Plan as the �London expression
of the National Planning Policy Framework’;
• Provide robust, interim planning framework to address
the key housing and employment issues arising from a
substantial increase in population and to support
recession recovery, until the long term implications of
these are clear
• Minor changes in terms of fact; changes in national
policy; support for the Mayor’s Housing and other
strategies and where relevant address other advice to
the Mayor eg from the Outer London Commission.
London’s demographic challenge
• London population 2001 (revised):7.34 mil
• London population 2011 (Census):8.17 mil
= 83,000 pa increase
BUT
London Plan 2011 – 2031 assumes 51,000pa
AND
new GLA trend projection 2011 – 2036 suggests 76,000
pa, and over 100k in earlier years….
London’s demographic challenge
Population growth 1971 - 2036
London’s demographic challenge
Age structure change 2011 - 2036
London’s demographic challenge
Distribution of population growth 2011 - 2036
London’s employment growth
Distribution of employment growth
The office policy review process
• Trends and emerging market issues NB
recession: structural cf cyclical changes
• Quantum of growth
• Nature of growth
• Distribution of growth
• Key issue: CAZ and competing land uses
• Key issue: Outer London - managing
consolidation and PD rights
• Other policy issues eg �mega-schemes
• Market testing
• Plan, monitor and manage
Market data: supply and demand
Office starts, Central London, 1984-2011
Market data: supply and demand
Availability and take-up, Central London, 1990-2011
Market data: supply and demand
Central London office rents, 1980–2011 (2011 prices)
Market data: benchmark 1
Ratio: permissions to average previous three years starts
Market data: benchmark 2
City availability ratio versus headline rent, 1986-2011
Employment and floorspace forecasts
Office employment forecasts by borough, 2011-2031
Borough
London
2011
2031
2011 - 31
2011-31
% change
1,741,382
2,174,478
433,096
25%
City
296,577
358,946
62,369
21%
Westminster
317,967
370,319
52,352
17%
Camden
134,257
179,887
45,630
34%
Tower Hamlets
127,374
162,424
35,051
28%
Southwark
106,474
136,943
30,469
29%
Islington
98,751
127,243
28,491
29%
Hackney
30,620
39,959
9,339
31%
Employment and floorspace forecasts
London needs an additional five million sq m by 2031
Borough
London
2011-31 floorspace
(Sq m NIA)
2011-31 floorspace
(Sq m GIA)
5,098,405
6,454,862
City
734,203
929,541
Westminster
616,291
780,258
Camden
537,161
680,075
Tower Hamlets
412,616
522,394
Southwark
358,685
454,116
Islington
335,401
424,637
Hackney
109,941
139,191
Prospects for non-CAZ office centres
London office stock change, 2000-12
Concentration of growth in Tower Hamlets and the City is clear.
Fringe boroughs of Camden, Southwark and Islington increased by c 200,000 sq m.
Relatively low growth in Westminster. Outer London’s demise is clear.
Croydon and Harrow each experienced a loss of over 100,000 sq m.
Prospects for non-CAZ office centres
Office floorspace completions in Outer London, 2000-08
In 2008, no new office buildings were built in nine of 20 Outer London boroughs.
In any of the five years leading up to 2008, between 10 and 13 Outer London
boroughs delivered no new office construction.
The picture was particularly acute in the East London boroughs.
Workstyles and occupation densities
Occupancy densities, BCO research 2013
Sector
Corporate
Professional
Public
TMT
Financial
2.5 million sq m; 381 properties; 1,331 floors
Mean: 10.9 sq m
Density
sq m NIA
13.1
12.3
12.1
10.5
9.7
London’s mega schemes: first generation
London’s mega schemes: second generation
Office to residential
London floorspace losses 2009-2012
Stage
Number of
sites
B1 floorspace
losses (sq m)
Residential
units
Completed
767
-505,800
11,400
Started
379
-515,100
13,200
Not started
1,019
-654,700
14,400
Total
2,165
-1,675,600
39,000
Office to residential
Loss of B1 to residential - % of total London losses
Borough
Westminster
Tower Hamlets
Croydon
City
Lambeth
Kensington & Chelsea
Camden
Islington
Southwark
Hammersmith & Fulham
London (sq m)
% of B1 floorspace losses
Completed Started Not started
31
19
7
5
8
8
2
2
4
8
2
11
5
5
3
4
2
3
3
1
-505,800 -515,100
16
12
4
9
3
2
4
6
7
6
-654,700
Total (sq m)
-361,500
-138,200
-104,600
-82,700
-77,700
-77,200
-76,600
-73,000
-69,500
-62,500
-1,675,600
Hybrid office/industrial activity
Audio-visual equipment installation
Cash and carry
Design and manufacture of applied arts
E-trading
Event catering
Freight forwarding
Graphic design
Maintenance contractor
Manufacturer of sweets
Oriental food supplier
Recording equipment repair
Short-run digital printing
Specialist provider of gift wrapping
Wine importer
Production
Assembly
Craftwork
Customisation
Design
Engineering
Food preparation
Graphic design
Maintenance
Packing
Printing
Repair
Storage & consolidation
Support
Management and administration
Goods dispatch/receipt
Customer support (call centre)
Customer consultation
Demonstration
Retail & wholesale sales
Sales & marketing
Technology
Training
Software development
Showroom
Entertainment and hospitality
Conclusions from LOPR 12
Occupiers
• Structural slowdown in office economy = lower demand growth.
• Changes to business process + workstyles = spaceless growth.
• Public sector rationalisation.
Business geography
• Looser business geography, with shifting and emerging clusters.
• Further concentration of business activity in mega schemes.
• Less demand in Outer London? Less demand in West London?
Workplace
• Working practices: flexible working styles; utilisation.
• Diversity of stock (quality, size, location) for a diverse occupier base.
• Loose fit buildings: economic, lower spec, flexible space.
Conclusions from LOPR 12
Property market
• Implications of the mega scheme pipeline: plenty of capacity.
• Outer London: further decline? 1960s/1970s stock a lost cause?
• More refurb and less new build?
Spatial planning policy
• Capacity is not the issue: issue is more sensitive spatial policy.
• TMT: you can’t plan creativity!
• Mixed use space and how to integrate office space.
The known unknowns
• Employment forecasts and economic change?
• Hub airport strategy: potentially huge impact on west London offices?
• The impact of resi values on marginalising commercial activity?
Retail policy review process
• Trends and emerging market issues NB
�austerity’, population, multi channel
• Quantum and nature of growth: independent
assessment
• Distribution of growth
• Key issue: town centres first – London approach
• Key issue: retail and resi - integrated action
• Other policy issues eg out of centre, PD rights
• Market testing
• Plan, monitor and manage
The drivers of change: assessing the
balance between retail supply and shopping
demand
SUPPLY
DEMAND
Improved
Retail space
efficiency
Loss to
Internet
Major Retail
development
nodes
Economic
growth
Pipeline of
Retail
developments
Population
growth
Existing Retail
supply
Existing
demand
population and
spend
“Special forms of trading” assumptions
– projected share of non-store retail
sales
Demand - residential spend by
centre 2011
Demand - tourist spend by centre
2011
Demand - commuter spend by centre
2011
Supply - current floorspace provision
Supply - current vacancy
Supply - current pipeline
….and also in the wider city region (nb �Duty
to Cooperate’)
Experian scenarios = �what if?’
…. and, for example, adding in 4 (or 8)
major development nodes
Brent
Cross+
40%
Stratford
+40%
Westfield
+25%
Romford
+25%
Uxbridge
+40%
Kingston+
25%
Croydon+
25%
Bromley
+25%
Growth scenarios
Scenario
2011 ВЈ18.6 bll.
2036 ВЈbll:
Gross
floorspace
requirement
2011 – 2036 mll
sq m
Net floorspace
requirement
2011 – 2036 mll
sq m
Baseline
ВЈ39.2
2.2
0.94
Pipeline
ВЈ39.5
1.6
0.37
4 Nodes
ВЈ39.6
1.6
0.40
8 Nodes
ВЈ39.8
1.7
0.48
Quality
adjustments
ВЈ39.7
1.7
0.48
…gives, at LB level, for the �Pipeline’, a
net balance of…
…or for the �8 Nodes’ scenario, a net
balance of …..
… or for the �Quality Adjustment’ scenario,
a net balance of…
…. also available at centre level eg if all pipeline constructed and
4 nodes ….
Brent Cross, Westfield, Westfield Stratford & Croydon
Base spend 2036 top shopping centres
Croydon gains
It impacts Kingston,
Bromley, Sutton and
Bexleyheath
Westfield Stratford
It impacts Stratford
and Ilford
The 2011 Plan town centre network: is a
network based approach still the best to
achieve the Mayor’s objectives?
“How should the town centre network respond to
changing levels and patterns of consumer
expenditure”
• Do these scenarios reflect what might
actually happen? Alternatives?
• Retain existing �town centre first’ policy
• How far can we go with existing
policies/SPG in addressing these
challenges?
• Are the challenges so great that we need to
change existing policy through FALP?
• If so, how and over what timescale?
How can the housing potential of town
centres be realised? Existing policy…
•
Accommodating
residential
development in town
centres
•
Housing from surplus
offices
(redevelopment /
conversions)
•
Implementation of
mixed use and
housing
•
Housing density
…and average household size
increasing from 2.3 to 2.5….
• 2011 London Plan assumed household size would
decline from 2.34 to 2.19 persons to 2031
• approximated to 34,000 extra (and generally small)
households pa
•BUT
• 2011 Census shows 2.47 average across London with a
lot of local variation
• GLA projection suggests c40,000 pa more households
2011 – 2026 …and housing requirement could be 49 62k pa
•General housing implications: higher overall requirement
with more small households in some places, more big (over
crowded?) ones elsewhere?
….what role can town centres have in
addressing this need?
• Great uncertainty over long term future pop
and hhld growth
• Must plan responsibly/sustainably:
considerable capacity already therefore not
GB development/new town
• Emerging SHLAA suggests conventional
approach may find capacity for +32k pa
• BUT how to fill the gap between this and
need: key roles for town centres and
Opportunity/ Intensification Areas
…..possible policy approaches and
mechanisms for town centre
intensification
• Link with response to reconfiguration of town centre
economic/social roles
• Retail and office floorspace contraction; social, service and
civic expansion?
• Varies by centre type - and local circs
• …. and with PTAL
• Flexibility to go to the top of the density range (and above in
some circs?)
• How to reconcile with local character objectives
• How to enhance quality of the centres themselves – for C21st
• What partnership/funding arrangements required?
The policy response….
Consultation draft Further
Alterations to the London Plan
The office policy response: Further
Alterations to the London Plan
• “where justified by local and strategic office demand
and supply assessments and in areas identified in
the LDF as having a particular need for local office
provision, provide protection for small scale offices
(under 500sqm) within the CAZ.”
• “where justified by local and strategic office demand
assessments and in areas identified in LDF as
having a particular need for local office provision,
require residential proposals within the CAZ which
would otherwise result in the loss of office space to
make a proportionate contribution to provision of
new office space within, or nearby, the
development.”
The retail/ town centres policy
response: Further Alterations to the
London Plan
• Update retail need figures taking account of changes in
consumer expenditure behaviour
• Net comparison need 0.4 – 1.6 mll sq m cf 1.3 – 2.2 mll
sq in 2011 Plan
• Strong cross ref to Policy 2.15 on different approaches to
development in small, medium sized and larger centres
• Links London Plan policy to proposed retail PD rights
criteria
• Planning criteria to help manage �negative clusters’ eg of
betting shops, takeaways
Town centre network
Potential future changes to the town
centre network
FALP Timetable
12 week public consultation from
15 January to 10 April 2014
FALP launch event at City Hall on
31st January 2014 at 2pm
Series of consultation events with
voluntary sector, business sector,
POS event, the wider South East,
5 London sub region.
EIP late summer 2014
Final publication spring 2015
Questions?
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