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Post-Soviet Central Asia
2000
1998
A Personal Experience
Daene McKinney
Central Asia
Some Statistics
Source: CIA World Fact Book, 2006
http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html
Aral Sea Basin
Surface Water Availability
Average Year
Water Balance
Inflow to sea ~ 60 kmВі
Amu Darya
78 kmВі
Rivers ~ 50 kmВі
Syr Darya
37 kmВі
Groundwater ~ 5 kmВі
Total
115 kmВі
Precipitation ~ 5 kmВі
Evaporation ~ 60 kmВі
Available to use ~ 55 kmВі
in the basin
ARAL SEA
Not much change over
100 years, but then …
Aral Sea 1989 - 2005
The Shrinking Aral Sea
Aral Sea Crisis
пѓ�12
x maximum permitted DDT
пѓ� 3/4 of people suffer from illness
пѓ� 70 % of fishermen are pre-cancerous
пѓ�5 x death rate of former Soviet
republics
�…
the environmental costs are so high
that they go beyond the economic
capacity of the newly independent
republics in Central Asia.
- The World Bank
Recent Water
Balance
E
Northern Aral Sea
Syr Darya
E
P
Southern Aral Sea
Will it dry up completely?
Why or why not?
Amu Darya
Aral Sea Basin States:
Some Statistics
Does this allocation seem fair to you?
Why or why not?
Aral Sea Basin Flows (1989 –
2000)
Can irrigated agriculture be
sustained while minimizing
environmental impacts?
Water used
in irrigation
Finding the Aral Sea
Finding the Aral Sea - 2
The Boats
Can you say “Gydro-uzel”?
Kazakhstan
Almaty
(where we lived)
Astana - Ice City
Syr Darya Basin
Who should get the water? When?
How can these needs be balanced?
Transboundary Water Resources:
Upstream – Kyrgyzstan
Water for electricity (heating) needed in winter
Downstream – Uzbekistan
Water for irrigation needed in summer
Syr Darya Basin
Ag Prod.
Ag Prod.
Keep
Warm!
Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyz Fuel Availability
USSR Breakup
Toktogul Reservoir
Toktogul Reservoir 19882000
Some Kyrgyz Sights
A computer lab in a Kyrgyz School
Bazarbai Mambetov
Central Asia
Water & Energy Round Table
USAID supported
Water and energy representatives of
Kyrgyzstran, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan
Created by Governments to
Develop treaty on Syr Dayra
Develop country positions on issues
Serve interests of all countries equally
Identify directions agreeable to all countries
Obtain advocacy for activities within each country
Bring work to attention of Presidents
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Amirkhan Kenshimov
The Future
Any Questions?
No cameras allowed!
KGB museum, Moscow, June 2000
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