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The Global Outlook and Implications for Asia

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Overheating in Emerging Markets:
An Asian Perspective
Carnegie Endowment For International Peace
February 16, 2010
Anoop Singh
Director, Asia and Pacific Department, IMF
Plan of the presentation
пЃ®
Overheating in Asia: A Look at the
Evidence
пЃ®
Policy Challenges
пЃ®
Conclusions
2
Overheating in Asia
Asia continues to lead an uneven global recovery and
output gaps are closing fast across the region
Asia: Estimated Output Gap Closing
Dates
World GDP Growth
2012
2011
2010
(Year-on-year; in percent)
TWN POC
SGP
IND
World
5.0
4.4
4.5
KOR
THA
PHL
Advanced
economies
3.0
2.5
2.5
AUS
MYS
IDN
Emerging and
Developing
economies
7.1
6.5
6.5
HKG SAR
NZL
Feb-16
Mar-15
Mar-14
6.8
Mar-13
6.8
Mar-12
8.2
Mar-11
Asia
Mar-10
JPN
3
Overheating in Asia
Yet, macroeconomic policies are still very
accommodative
Asia: Real Policy Rates
Asia: Cyclically Adjusted General
Government Balance
(In percent)
December, 2009
6
(In percent of GDP)
January, 2011
2005–07 (average)
2010 (proj.)
2002–07 (average)
2009
2011 (proj.)
4
2
4
0
2
-2
-4
0
-6
-2
-8
-10
India
China
ASEAN-4
NIEs
-12
Industrial
Asia
Australia
Indonesia
New Zealand
Malaysia
Japan
Korea
Philippines
India
China
Taiwan
Province of
China
Thailand
Vietnam
-4
4
Overheating in Asia
Inflationary pressures are emerging in Asia,
fuelled by higher food prices…
Asia: Headline CPI1
Asia: Headline and Food Price Inflation
(Year-on-year percent change)
(Year-on-year; in percent)
Industrial Asia
NIEs
ASEAN-5
China
India
15
10
Headline
Food
25
20
15
5
10
1 Wholesale
prices used for India.
5
Vietnam
Indonesia
Korea
China
India
Thailand
Hong Kong SAR
Dec-10
Jul-10
Feb-10
Sep-09
Apr-09
Nov-08
Jun-08
Jan-08
-5
Singapore
Japan
0
Philippines
Taiwan
Province of
China
Malaysia
5
0
Overheating in Asia
…but there are also growing signs of spillovers to
generalized inflation
Selected Asia: Real wage/earnings
Asia: Core CPI1
(2008:Q1=100; seasonally adjusted)
(3-month percent change of 3-mma)
15
China
India
NIEs
ASEAN-4
12
Philippines
Thailand
Korea
Taiwan Province of China
Singapore
110
105
9
100
6
3
95
0
90
-3
2010:Q3
2010:Q2
2010:Q1
2009:Q4
2009:Q3
2009:Q2
2009:Q1
2008:Q4
2008:Q3
Dec-10
Jul-10
Feb-10
2008:Q2
Wholesale prices used for India.
Sep-09
Apr-09
Nov-08
Jun-08
Jan-08
1
2008:Q1
85
-6
6
Overheating in Asia
Credit growth is generally brisk, and property prices are
still growing fast in a few regional economies
Asia: Credit to Private Sector
Selected Asia: Property Prices
(Year-on-year percent change)
40
NIEs
ASEAN-4
China
(Year-on-year percent change)
Australia
Hong Kong SAR
Singapore
China
Taiwan Province of China
India
35
40
30
30
25
20
20
10
15
0
10
-10
5
-20
0
2010:Q4
2010:Q1
2009:Q2
2008:Q3
2007:Q4
Dec-10
Jul-10
Feb-10
Sep-09
Apr-09
Nov-08
Jun-08
Jan-08
2007:Q1
-30
-5
7
Overheating in Asia
Upward pressures on equities have abated and valuations
are generally in line with historical norms
Asia: Stock Markets
Asia: 12-month Forward P/E Ratios
(October 1, 2010 = 100)
Japan
NIEs (Avg)
China
120
(Relative to long-run average)
Australia
ASEAN (Avg)
India
January 2010
1.4
Latest
1.3
1.2
1.1
110
1.0
0.9
100
0.8
0.7
90
0.6
8
Japan
Taiwan POC
Indonesia
Thailand
Korea
Australia
Singapore
Philippines
New Zealand
Malaysia
Hong Kong SAR
China
4-Feb-11
21-Jan-11
7-Jan-11
24-Dec-10
10-Dec-10
26-Nov-10
12-Nov-10
29-Oct-10
15-Oct-10
1-Oct-10
India
0.5
80
Policy Challenges
But capital flows to EM Asia will need to be managed
carefully
Emerging Markets: Net Capital Flows
(In billions of U.S. dollars)
500
400
Selected EM Asia: Net Portfolio Flows
(In percent of GDP; 4qma)
3.0
Emerging Europe
Latin America
Emerging Asia
2.5
2.0
1.5
300
1.0
0.5
200
0.0
-0.5
100
-1.0
-1.5
0
03
05
07
09 10
Note: Includes India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan
Province of China, and Thailand.
10:Q3
05:Q1
2000:Q1
2001
95:Q1
-100
1991:Q1
-2.0
9
Policy Challenges
Stronger currencies will be needed across the region
Foreign Exchange Reserves
(In billions of US dollars)
REER Change
(In percent; between September 2007 and
December 2010; GDP weighted )
10
Policy Challenges
Macro-prudential measures can be useful if tailored to
country-circumstances
Asia and Other EMs: Recent Macro-Prudential Measures
Measures
Example
Tighter ceilings on L-T-V ratios
China, Hong Kong SAR, Singapore, Peru,
Turkey
Higher stamp duties on resale of properties
China, Hong Kong SAR, Singapore
Reserve requirements on non-resident
deposits, and on FX deposits
Indonesia, Peru
Limits on ratio of banks FX loans and
securities to FX borrowing
Korea
Tax on equity and bond inflows
Brazil
Withholding tax on foreigners’ bond
purchases
Korea
Withholding tax on state bonds
Thailand
Minimum holding period on investment in
CB bills
Indonesia
11
Comparing Asia with Latin America
Overheating pressures are also emerging in Latin America,
but with important differences with Asia
Domestic Demand and GDP growth
Current Account Balance
(In percent)
12
Real GDP
Domestic demand
(In percent of GDP)
8
Latin America
10
8
Emerging Asia
6
6
4
4
2
0
2
-2
-4
0
Emerging Asia
2010
2009
2005-08
2010
2009
2005-08
-6
Latin America
-2
-4
2006
Note: Latin America includes: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru.
2008
2010
12
Longer term challenges
A longer-term view: prevent the return of global
imbalances and make growth more inclusive
Global Imbalances
Vulnerable Employment
(Percent of World GDP)
ROW
EMA
JPN
CHN
OIL
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
statistical discrepancy
(In percent of total employment, 2008)
US
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
Advanced
economies
Emerging Europe
Developing America
Middle East
Northern Africa
Emerging Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
0
20
40
60
80
13
Conclusions
пЃ®
Asia is still firmly leading the global recovery, but
overheating pressures have surfaced in a few regional
economies
пЃ®
Dealing with these pressures requires a quick
normalization of both fiscal and monetary stances
пЃ®
Stronger currencies should be part of this policy mix
пЃ®
In addition to dealing with overheating risks,
policymakers need to make sure that growth will be
balanced and inclusive
14
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