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The Future of EU-Russia economy
(mid-term) perspective and EU
interests
2
3
PROs (positive forces: towards cooperation)
пѓј Strong economic interrelations:
80% of cumulative foreign investment to Russia,
Russia is the E.U.’s 3rd most important trading partner.
пѓј The E.U. provides
пѓј
пѓј Common security interests: Russia as a key geopolitical partner for EU. Common goals against
rising India& China, world terrorism, loss of leadership in technology, illegal migration, organized crime, cyber crime,
climate change, and the conflict of civilizations.
пѓј Energy issue: Russia is the most important supplier to the E.U. not only of gas and oil, but also of coal and
uranium.
пѓј Russia as one of the largest holders
of euro-denominated assets in the world.
пѓј Research, education and culture:
strong mutual interest in nuclear safety, education
(Bologna process), exchange of know-how. Russia needs new
technologies, EU needs developed Russia to continue provide
resources.
42% of EU
gas comes
from
Russia
CONs (negative forces: towards conflict)
пѓј Inconsistent, bi-lateral policy of EU =>Russia. EU needs to restructure and act as a Unit with
a certain defined position.
пѓј Russian straightforward foreign policy:
пѓј Georgian conflict,
пѓј unilateral recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia
пѓј Chechnya issue
пѓј Raising concerns about stability of gas supplies: Ukrainian conflict + insufficient upstream
investments in the face of expanding demand.
пѓј Old and out of date PCA, as a main strategic document. Need for a new document.
 No common strategic vision on future cooperation – Russian and EU leaders DON’T SEE same reasons
on WHY to closely cooperate
Example: “Partnership for modernization” by Russia, Rostov summit 2010
EU vision: political
modernization (political freedom
Russian vision: technical
modernization (know-how and
& human rights)
investments)
6
Legislative base
• Agreement of the USSR and EU "About trade,
economic and commercial cooperation“ – 1989
• the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement –
1994(1997)
• 4 road maps:
– On the space of freedom, safety and justice
– On a Common Economic Space
– On a Common Space of External Security
– On the common space of science and education
Exported/imported services
•
•
•
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•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Transport
Travelling
Communications
Constructing
Insurance
Financial services
Computer and information services
Royalty and license payments
Personal and cultural services
Governmental services
Other business services
Export of services
Import of services
Geographic structure of Russia’s goods export
• 2000: Germany, Italy, Great Britain, The
Netherlands, Finland
• 2001-2002: Germany, Italy, The Netherlands,
Great Britain, Finland
• 2003: Germany, The Netherlands, Italy, Great
Britain, Finland
• 2004: The Netherlands, Germany, Italy,
Finland, Great Britain
Geographic structure of Russia’s goods export
• 2005: The Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Great
Britain, Finland
• 2006-2009: The Netherlands, Italy, Germany,
Poland, Great Britain
Geographic structure of Russia’s goods import
• 2000-2005: Germany, Italy, France, Finland,
Great Britain
• 2006: Germany, France, Italy, Finland, Great
Britain, Poland (new)
• 2007: Germany, Italy, France, Great Britain,
Finland, Poland
• 2008: Germany, Italy, France, Great Britain,
Poland
• 2009: Germany, France, Italy, Poland, Finland
Geographic structure of Russia’s services export
• 2000-2002: Germany, Great Britain, Finland,
France, Italy
• 2003-2004: Germany, Great Britain, Finland,
France,
• 2005: Germany, Great Britain, Cyprus, France,
Finland
• 2006-2007: Germany, Great Britain, Cyprus,
The Netherlands, Finland
• 2008-2009: Great Britain, Germany, Cyprus,
The Netherlands, France
Geographic structure of Russia’s services import
• 2000-2002: Germany, Finland, Great Britain,
France, Italy
• 2003-2004: Germany, Finland, Great Britain,
France, The Netherlands
• 2005-2007: Great Britain, Germany, Finland,
Cyprus, France
• 2008-2009: Great Britain, Germany, Finland,
Cyprus, The Netherlands
EU countries’ investments to the economy of Russia
(mln $ U.S.)
Russia’s investments to the economy of EU countries
(mln $ U.S.)
Antidumping measures
• According to the article VI GATT(the General
agreement under tariffs and trade) the dumping
is defined as a sale method for export at which
В«the goods of one country are sold in another
country at a price below normalВ».
• Now it is necessary to result some figures testifying to gravity
of given not tariff restriction for Russia:
• For December, 31st, 2007 the Community applied concerning
Russia 11 definitive antidumping measures and did not apply
any time antidumping measure. Obligations have been
accepted concerning 5 of these 11 cases. The total cost of the
import mentioned by these measures in 2007, has made €167
million that makes only 1,3 % of all import of Russia. The size
of the antidumping duties entered on Russian production in
2007, has made less €20 million. That means that the average
level of the entered duty was somewhere about 12 %.
• For September, 30th, 2008 the Community applied
antidumping measures concerning import of 12 kinds of goods
from Russia. Cost of the import on which the measures were
imposed during first half of 2008, has made €93 million (1,5
% of import). However the sum of the declared antidumping
duties equaled only €3,4 million, i.e. the average duty was
Prospects
• EU expansion can have for Russia a number of negative
consequences in trade - economic sphere:
• - A mode of quantitative restrictions for import of the Russian
steel to EU.
• - 12 measures of antidumping protection concerning export of
the Russian steel products and chemical fertilizers
• - Quota System for the Russian export of grain to EU.
• - Losses in trading of fuel-energetic products
• - Worsening the access to specialized markets
• EU expansion has variety of the essential favorable aspects for
economy of Russia. Especially in the long-term plan. Here are
uniform rules of a competition, trade and transit, both stability of
calculations and protection of the intellectual Russian property.
24
Why Partnership of Modernization?
Modernization goals driven by EU’s interest to invest in and
source reliably from Russia – Russia needs know-how
“Russia forward!”
Trade asymmetry
WTO membership
Asian boom
Stability
Modernization
vs.
 Focus on stability

after Gaidar-shock and
crisis of 1998
Shift to modernization
with the new
presidency of
Medvedev
 EU highly dependent

on Russian primary
exports (gas, oil)
High-tech industry has
been neglected, which
results into
dependence on
manufactured goods.
 Low level of foreign

direct investments due
to unfavorable
investment climate
Tariffs and
protectionism prolong
WTO application
procedure
 Global markets put

Russian industries
under pressure
Production factors are
globally mobile;
modernization as local
competitive advantage
The Partnership of Modernization (PoM)
Main goal and objectives of the Partnership
“to implement a concrete modernization of the most important sectors of Russian
economy and society, in order to promote international multilateralism and benefit to
both parts in the long run”
European Union
 Increase business and cooperation
opportunities with Russia
 increase commitment in international
institutions
 concrete projects with a modernized
partner
 improve situation of EU countries,
along Russian borders
Russian Federation
 standard alignment (economy,
bureaucracy, policy etc.)
 develop internal sectors
 increase commitment in
international institutions
 increase trade
 attract western investments
 improve commitment with border
countries
Implementation of the PoM
Possibilities of implementation in the four spheres
Technology
 energy efficiency
 energy conservation
 new fuels
 nuclear technologies
 space technologies
 telecommunication
 medical technologies
 pharmaceuticals
 IT
Six projects selected by
Russian Government,
with high potential of
cooperation for EU.
Economy
 stimulate investments
 stimulate growth of small
and medium enterprises
 attract venture capitals
 reform the very large
public sector (privatization)
 listing of mayor
companies
 improve financial market
 standards (IAS/IFRS)
 corporate law (premium)
 taxation
Policy and
governance
 reduction of state
controls
 corruption
 clarify tasks of public
administration
 transparency
 reform bureaucracy
 simplify registration
procedures for foreign
companies
 visa deal (with EU)
Research and
education
 high level research
centers
 new modern
universities in strategic
areas
 cooperation with EU
universities
 shared research
projects with EU
 attract EU experts
The Future of EU-Russia Energy Dialogue
• Russia is a major player in world energy markets
• Russia is reluctant to accept EU insistence on common regulatory regime
in the energy area.
• The EU is very much concerned about being over-dependent on the
Russian oil and gas imports. (The Nabucco pipeline project. transport gas
from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and potentially Iran across the Balkans to
Western Europe)
• Russia is moving from constructing transit pipelines to direct pipelines,
mostly built offshore. Thus, it strengthens Gazprom’s bargaining power visà -vis transit countries such as Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova
• Russia will continue to be Europe’s main suppliers of natural gas
• EU’s energy policy needs to address questions such as how to secure
delivery and distribution of gas and how to provide more stable demand
forecasts
28
29
Social Cooperation - 1
Quality of life
Education
Culture
• Program of Cooperation between the International Labour Organization
• An institutional foundation is being formed due to the absence of the Decent
Work country program in Russia
• Several development projects funded by TACIS
• The cooperation axis ICT for Health was added after the open consultation
campaign (January-April 2008)
• Three EU educational programs in Russia
• Innovations Center in Skolkovo
• The Europe 2020 Strategy for Smart, Sustainable and Inclusive growth and
the concept of long-term social-economic development of Russia to 2020
• Bologna process
• World cultural summits
• Cooperation between EU and Russian artists
• Proposal from Russia to extent PPC to the cultural sphere
Social Cooperation – 2. Goals
Quality of life
• Sustainable and increasing quality of life healthcare
• The implementation of the Decent Work Agenda
Education
• largely promoting cooperation among universities and two-way mobility of
students and academic staff
• coordinating and synchronising actions within the EU and Russian research
EU and Russian research programmes
Culture
• improving mutual knowledge and understanding of each other’s culture
• a special focus on strengthening the European identity and opportunities
for synergy
32
Opportunities
(what can be done to support further cooperation)
• Development and adoption of new PCA. Should be not a nominative
document, as “four common spaces” is, but a detailed one, delivering common
strategic vision for future cooperation
“The EU expects the New EU-Russia Agreement to provide for a
comprehensive legally binding framework to cover all main areas of the
relationship based on our shared interests and the international commitments
which the EU and Russia have entered into, including promoting respect for human
rights and the rule of law. Moreover, in order to underpin our growing economic
interdependence a Free Trade Area (FTA) would be of mutual interest”.
• Acceptance of Russia into WTO - enlargement and further development of
economical relations (should finish by end of 2011).
• Creation of free travel zone with Europe – visas as huge barrier for
•
business and cultural cooperation of Russia-EU (in discussion).
Partnership for modernization – further development of
the concept in order to arrive to the common vision.
Threats
(what can ruin further cooperation)
• EU continues to act inconsistently towards Russia
• Russian bi-lateral conflicts with EU countries. Example:
conflict with Georgia. Georgia is opposing Russia’s acceptance into WTO,
using its member’s veto right.
• US implicit or explicit intervention into Russia-EU
relations
• New problems with gas supply
• Results of presidential elections of 2012 in Russia
Ways to future-1
• EU’s view: “The future of EU-Russia relations, a way forward
in solidarity and the rule-of-law”. February, 2009.
Basis for a better EU-Russia relationship = neither confrontation, nor isolation, nor
unconditional cooperation, but a policy based on solidarity and the rule of
law”. Let’s act together and influence our relationships with Russia.
• Putin’s view: “Russia and Europe: From learning the
lessons of the crisis to a new partnership agenda.”,
November 2010.
“our joint attempt at achieving success and competitiveness in the modern
world,”
– Common economic policy: free trade zone, Russia’s WTO accession, joint projects “RU
resources & EU technology”, common European energy complex (to avoid gas transit countries)
– Supporting science and education
– Removing barriers: visa-free regime for business and educational cooperation
Ways to future-2
• Sergey Karaganov, Chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign
and Defense Policy (CFDP), Dean of the School of the World Economy and International Affairs of the
State University–Higher School of Economics, September, 2010:
way towards creation
of Alliance of Europe in
order to oppose 2 existing poles:
Ukraine
Russia
China
USA
Turkey
Kazakhstan
Thank You for Attention!
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