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Conflict Analysis

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Conflict Analysis
Farrokh Alemi, Ph.D.
Monday, February 09, 2004
Objectives
Turn conflict into win-win situations
пЃ® Learn how to analyze conflict
пЃ® Learn how to use the analysis for better
insights into the conflict
пЃ®
Not just model building &
formulas but also a process
Who Is the Decision Maker?
пЃ®
Several constituencies
– e.g. department heads meeting to resolve
conflict on budget
пЃ®
Two people
– e.g. negotiations between a clinician and a
manager at an HMO
пЃ®
On person
– Role playing of an objective outsider
Analyst meets with each
party one on one
Premises
People have cognitive biases
When two parties negotiate some conflict is due
to miscommunications
пЃ® A conflict is easier to grasp if it is broken into
components
пЃ® Individuals can specify their values and prioritize
them
пЃ® The analyst can provide reduce conflict due to
miscommunication, provide insight into the
thinking of each party and identify solutions
overlooked by both parties
пЃ®
пЃ®
A Conflict Analyzed Is a
Conflict Understood
Prevent escalation of conflict
Analysis Forces
Rationality into Conflict
Increase self insight
Steps in Analysis of Conflict
Step Phase
Action
1
Hold informal interviews with people
informed about the conflict.
2
Understand the
problem
3
4
Identify constituencies and their
spokespeople.
Analyze assumptions.
Structure the problem
Perform an in-depth interview with one
or more objective outsiders.
5
In separate sessions with each
constituency, identify issues, and
levels of resolution.
6
Assess importance of issues & value
of resolution levels
7
Explore the solution
Form and score treaties
8
Analyze the treaties
9
Develop a strategy of negotiation
10
Present results to all constituents.
1. Understand the problem
пЃ®
Identifying constituencies
– Not just vocal groups
– Representation
пЃ®
Identifying spokespeople
– Maybe role playing
Identifying assumptions
пЃ® Get the catchwords
пЃ®
1. Understand the problem
пЃ®
Identifying constituencies
– Not just vocal groups
– Representation
пЃ®
Identifying spokespeople
– Maybe role playing
Identifying assumptions
пЃ® Get the catchwords
пЃ®
1. Understand the problem
пЃ®
Identifying constituencies
– Not just vocal groups
– Representation
пЃ®
Identifying spokespeople
– Maybe role playing
пЃ®
Analyzing assumptions
Example Assumptions
2. Structure the Problem
пЃ®
Identify issues
– What do we have control over that can be
changed?
пЃ®
Identify levels of resolution
–
–
–
–
What is this side’s position on the issue?
What resolutions might it accept?
What resolutions are totally unacceptable?
Why are the levels considered in this way?
2. Structure the Problem
пЃ®
Identify issues
– What do we have control over that can be
changed?
пЃ®
Identify levels of resolution
–
–
–
–
What is this side’s position on the issue?
What resolutions might it accept?
What resolutions are totally unacceptable?
Why are the levels considered in this way?
Interviews
пЃ®
Which components of family planning
should be available to minors and under
what conditions.
– Education
– Counseling
– Services
Heart of the Conflict
пЃ®
пЃ®
пЃ®
пЃ®
пЃ®
Should values and morals be taught when delivering
family planning services?
Should counseling of adolescents start from the position
that premarital sex among adolescents is bad?
Which is more important, allowing easy access to
services or having services controlled by organizations
with what are considered high morals?
What are the optimum technical qualifications of the
personnel?
Who, if anybody, should regulate the provision of family
planning services to adolescents?
Example Issues & Resolutions
3. Explore Solutions
Elicit importance of different issues and values of
different resolutions on each issue
пЃ® Create and score treaties
пЃ®
– Treaty: a set of possible resolutions on each issue
пЃ®
Perform optimal analysis
– Focus on Pareto optimal treaties
– Logroll
Organize process of negotiations
пЃ® Deescalate the conflict
пЃ®
Value
Models
Value Models Continued
3. Explore Solutions
Elicit importance of different issues and values of
different resolutions on each issue
пЃ® Create and score treaties
пЃ®
– Treaty: a set of possible resolutions on each issue
пЃ®
Perform optimal analysis
– Focus on Pareto optimal treaties
– Logroll
Organize process of negotiations
пЃ® Deescalate the conflict
пЃ®
Sample Treaty
A2
Programs stress abstinence.
B2
Require programs to strengthen the family
C2
Adolescent parents must be notified
D2
All providers must have medical qualifications.
E2
Educational institutions will carry out programs.
F2
State governments must regulate programs.
Try
It
Scoring of a Treaty
Sample Treaty Scored
A2
Programs stress abstinence. (.14*30)
B2
Require programs to strengthen the family (.20
*30)
Adolescent parents must be notified (.25* 80)
C2
D2
E2
F2
All providers must have medical qualifications
(.11*60)
Educational institutions will carry out programs
(.23*60)
State governments must regulate programs
(.07*40)
Total value = 53.4
Orthogonal Design for Treaties
with Two Issues
Treaty 1
Treaty 2
Issue A
Best
Best
Issue B
Best
Worst
Treaty 3
Treaty 4
Treaty 5
Best
Best
Worst
Best
Worst
Best
Treaty 6
Treaty 7
Treaty 8
Worst
Worst
Worst
Worst
Best
Worst
Orthogonal Design for Treaties for
Three Issues
Issue A
Issue B
Issue C
Treaty 1
Best
Best
Best
Treaty 2
Best
Best
Worst
Treaty 3
Best
Best
Best
Treaty 4
Best
Best
Worst
Treaty 5
Best
Worst
Best
Treaty 6
Best
Worst
Worst
Treaty 7
Best
Worst
Best
Treaty 8
Best
Worst
Worst
Treaty 9
Worst
Best
Best
Treaty 10
Worst
Best
Worst
Treaty 11
Worst
Best
Best
Treaty 12
Worst
Best
Worst
Treaty 13
Worst
Worst
Best
Treaty 14
Worst
Worst
Worst
Treaty 15
Worst
Worst
Best
Treaty 16
Worst
Worst
Worst
3. Explore Solutions
Elicit importance of different issues and values of
different resolutions on each issue
пЃ® Create and score treaties
пЃ®
– Treaty: a set of possible resolutions on each issue
пЃ®
Perform optimal analysis
– Focus on Pareto optimal treaties
– Logroll
Organize process of negotiations
пЃ® Deescalate the conflict
пЃ®
Score for Constituent A
Pareto Optimal
60
Pareto Optimal
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
20
40
60
80
Score for Constituent B
Points inside the plot are different treaties
Search for Pareto
Optimal Treaties
Use the information to improve
one constituents situation without
deteriorating the other
Example of Negotiating Every Issue
Example of Logrolling
3. Explore Solutions
Elicit importance of different issues and values of
different resolutions on each issue
пЃ® Create and score treaties
пЃ®
– Treaty: a set of possible resolutions on each issue
пЃ®
Perform optimal analysis
– Focus on Pareto optimal treaties
– Logroll
Organize process of negotiations
пЃ® Deescalate the conflict
пЃ®
Organize Process of Negotiation
De-escalate the conflict
Prevent the parties from negotiating on
the overall treaty until some agreements
have been reached
пЃ® Discuss issues in a sequence that
minimizes frustration
пЃ® Divide the conflict into component issues
increase the probability of finding a few
areas of agreement
пЃ®
Summary
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