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Real World Data Collection and Analysis Systems

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METOC Metrics - Real World
Data Collection and Analysis
Systems
Presented by:
Bruce W. Ford
bruce@clearscienceinc.com
http://www.clearscienceinc.com
904-536-7180
This Brief is UNCLASSIFIED
For official use only
http://www.ClearScienceInc.com
Online Real World Metrics System – Overview
1.
A web based system for use by METOC units in measuring
forecast performance, and the operational impacts of:
a. Forecasts
b. METOC phenomena
2.
Allows near real time data entry by METOC units:
http://web.ntsstl.nps.navy.smil.mil/Metrics/shipboard_metrics/strike_metrics/index.php
3.
Delivers metrics reports within seconds of data being entered.
4.
Standardized for use by METOC units supporting strike
operations, but readily adaptable to other customer operations
(e.g., ASW).
5.
Includes database for long term data collection and analyses.
6.
Optimized for low impact on work loads of METOC units and
their customers.
For official use only
Ford et al., METOC Metrics - Real World Data Collection and Analysis Systems, Feb 07,
bruce@clearscienceinc.com
Online Real World Metrics System – System Schematic
Carrier Strike Group (CSG)
Data obtained
by CSG
personnel via
interaction
with air wing
NPS
Data written to
database
Data analyzed per NPS
metrics procedures
Output reports delivered
via web site.
Reports available to CSG
on demand via automated
metrics calculation
process.
Data entered remotely via
web site
Reports delivered by OA
division to air wing
personnel
CSG
From NPS thesis research of LT Jeremy Callahan, USN, 2006
For official use only
Ford et al., METOC Metrics - Real World Data Collection and Analysis Systems, Feb 07,
bruce@clearscienceinc.com
Online Real World Metrics System – METOC Support and
Data Collection During Mission Planning and Debriefing
3 – 4 Days Prior
3 Hours Prior
ATO Development
Flight Brief
• Weather briefing given to ATO planners at the Combined
Air Operations Center (CAOC)
• ATO developed based on needs of the Combined Forces
Air Component Commander (CFACC) while taking large
scale weather into consideration
• ATO promulgated to supporting units
•
•
•
•
•
DD-175 and safety of flight
Airfield forecast
Enroute & target weather
Divert weather
Launch and recovery weather
Event Debrief
Mission
Execution
• Data collected during standard Intelligence debriefing
• Most weather impacts reviewed for intelligence report
• Supplemental data obtained one-on-one after intelligence debriefing
1-2 Hours After
From NPS thesis research of LT Jeremy Callahan, USN, 2006
For official use only
Ford et al., METOC Metrics - Real World Data Collection and Analysis Systems, Feb 07,
bruce@clearscienceinc.com
Online Real World Metrics System – Data Collection
Mission Data
Mission
Information
Debriefing
Information
Weather
Events
Forecast
Negative Weather
Events
Observed
Negative Weather
Events
Mission
Impact
Impacts of
Weather
on Mission
Mitigating
Actions
Changes Made
to Original
Mission by Pilot
Target Changes
And Cancellations
From NPS thesis research of LT Jeremy Callahan, USN, 2006
For official use only
Ford et al., METOC Metrics - Real World Data Collection and Analysis
Systems, Feb 07, bruce@clearscienceinc.com
Online Real World Metrics System – Data Collection
From NPS METOC Metrics SIPRNet Site:
http://web.ntsstl.nps.navy.smil.mil/Metrics/shipboard_metrics/strike_metrics/index.php
From NPS thesis research of LT Jeremy Callahan, USN, 2006
For official use only
Ford et al., METOC Metrics - Real World Data Collection and Analysis
Systems, Feb 07, bruce@clearscienceinc.com
Online Real World Metrics System – Data Collection
Mission
Information
Debriefing
Information
NPS METOC Metrics SIPRNet Site:
http://web.ntsstl.nps.navy.smil.mil/Metrics/shipboard_metrics/strike_metrics/index.php
From NPS METOC Metrics SIPRNet Site:
http://web.ntsstl.nps.navy.smil.mil/Metrics/shipboard_metrics/strike_metrics/index.php
From NPS thesis research of LT Jeremy Callahan, USN, 2006
For official use only
Ford et al., METOC Metrics - Real World Data Collection and Analysis Systems, Feb 07,
bruce@clearscienceinc.com
Online Real World Metrics System – Data Collection
Observed
Negative Weather
Events
Forecast
Negative Weather
Events
Impacts of
Weather
on Mission
Changes Made
to Original
Mission by Pilot
Target Changes
and Cancellations
From NPS METOC Metrics SIPRNet Site:
http://web.ntsstl.nps.navy.smil.mil/Metrics/shipboard_metrics/strike_metrics/index.php
From NPS thesis research of LT Jeremy Callahan, USN, 2006
For official use only
Ford et al., METOC Metrics - Real World Data Collection and Analysis Systems, Feb 07,
bruce@clearscienceinc.com
Performance Metrics
• Forecast Accuracy (FAC)
– Percent of correct forecasts
– FAC=100*(A+D)/(A+B+C+D)
• Probability of Detection (POD)
– Percent of events correctly forecasted
– POD=100*A/(A+B)
• False Alarm Rate (FAR)
– Percent of incorrectly forecasted events
– FAR=100*C/(A+C)
Forecasted
Severe
Impact
No
Severe
Impact
Total
Observed
Severe Impact
A
B
A+B
No
Severe Impact
C
D
C+D
Total
A+C
B+D
A+B+C
+D
• Bias
–
–
–
–
Indicates under or over forecasting
Bias=100*(A+C)/(A+B)
Under Bias=(-1)*(100-100*(A+C)/(A+B)
Over Bias=100-100*(A+B)/(A+C)
From NPS thesis research of LT Jeremy Callahan, USN, 2006
For official use only
Ford et al., METOC Metrics - Real World Data Collection and Analysis Systems, Feb 07,
bruce@clearscienceinc.com
Performance Metrics
From NPS thesis research of LT Jeremy Callahan, USN, 2006
For official use only
Ford et al., METOC Metrics - Real World Data Collection and Analysis Systems, Feb 07,
bruce@clearscienceinc.com
Performance and Phenomena
Metrics
Binned by Mission Phase
Binned by Phenomenon
Type
From NPS thesis research of LT Jeremy Callahan, USN, 2006
For official use only
Ford et al., METOC Metrics - Real World Data Collection and Analysis Systems, Feb 07,
bruce@clearscienceinc.com
Operational Impacts Metrics:
Mission Plan Changes – ACC & PACAF
Based only on planning forecast
Percentage of Missions
Based only on execution forecast
Based on planning and execution forecasts
Percent of missions for which indicated changes were
made due to planning and/or execution forecasts.
From NPS thesis research of Maj Karen Darnell, USAF, 2006
For official use only
Ford et al., METOC Metrics - Real World Data Collection and Analysis Systems, Feb 07,
bruce@clearscienceinc.com
Operational Impacts Metrics:
Missions and Weapons Saved - NSAWC/Fallon
a.
•
•
•
b.
c.
The percent of NSWAC missions for which the weather forecast led to the
mission being saved from:
a. delays or cancellation
b. Incorrect weapons load outs
Bar c shows the percent of missions that could have been saved from
delays, cancellations, or weapons changes had the mission plans been
changed in response to the forecasts.
Net result: 36% of missions were or could have been saved.
From NPS thesis research of LCDR Mark Butler, USN, 2005
For official use only
Ford et al., METOC Metrics - Real World Data Collection and Analysis Systems, Feb 07,
bruce@clearscienceinc.com
Operational Impacts Metrics:
Negative Impact Phenomena - NSAWC/Fallon
Percent of missions that experienced negative impacts from the indicated
weather phenomena.
From NPS thesis research of LCDR Mark Butler, USN, 2005
For official use only
Ford et al., METOC Metrics - Real World Data Collection and Analysis Systems, Feb 07,
bruce@clearscienceinc.com
Questions
Ford et al., METOC Metrics - Real World Data Collection and Analysis Systems, Feb 07,
bruce@clearscienceinc.com
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