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Современные проблемы ядерной
энергетики
Профессор Мурогов В.М.
2009
1
Современные проблемы ядерной
энергетики
Лекция 1. Введение. Современное
состояние ядерной энергетики в
мире
2
Nuclear Power Today: At a glance
372 GWe installed (approx 11% of global generating
capacity)
15% of global electricity supply
More than 13,000 reactor-years of operating experience
A proven technology that provides clean electricity at
predictable & competitive costs
Continuously improved economic & safety performance
Nuclear power today:
On 1 January 2008, 439 nuclear power plants (NPPs)
operated in 30 countries worldwide, with a total
installed capacity of 371 900 MWe.
400
350
GWe installed
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
“Where does
nuclear power go
from here?”
Status of Nuclear Power in 2006
• About 13 000 reactor years of experience
•
439 power reactors in operation (installed
capacity about 372 GWe)
• Average plant load factor: >80%
• Contributions to global electricity: ~15%
• Low electricity cost, good safety records
• 2 new NPPs connected to the grid.
• 5 constructions started,
• 37 reactors under construction
Current status: October 2008
In operation
439 nuclear power
reactors [372 GW]
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
USA
104
France
59
Japan
55
Russia
31
S. Korea 20
UK
Germany
Current status: October 2008
Under Construction
37 nuclear power reactors
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
China
Russia
India
RoK
Bulgaria 2
Ukraine 2
Japan
8
7
6
4
2
Structure of global electricity supply
Global electricity
generation in 2008:
18,235 TWh
Hydro
16.0%
Renewables
2.2%
Coal
40.3%
Nuclear
15.2%
Natural gas
19.7%
Oil
6.6%
FR
A
L
SL IT NC
H
O U E
VA A
K N IA
BE RE
L P.
SW GIU
E M
UK DE
BU RA N
LG INE
AR AR
KO
M IA
RE SLO EN
A, VE IA
RE N
P IA
SW HU . O
IT NG F
ZE AR
G RL Y
E A
CZ RM N D
EC A
H NY
R
JA EP.
FI PA
NL N
TA
AN
IW
AN SP D
, C AIN
H
IN
A
US
A
RU UK
CA SS
IA
RO NAD
AR M A
G AN
EN IA
SO
T
UT ME INA
NE H X
TH AF ICO
ER RI
L A CA
N
BR DS
PA A
KI ZIL
ST
A
IN N
D
CH IA
IN
A
% of electricity from nuclear power
Nuclear share of electricity (2008)
France 78%
90
80
70
50
40
30
20
Belgium 54%
Rep. Korea 40%
60
Switzerland 37%
Japan 30%
USA 19%
Russia 16%
China 2%
S. Africa 4%
10
0
Nuclear power in weapons and non-weapons states (recent situation)
Parameter
Number of nuclear power
units:
in operation
under construction
Total installed GW(e)
in operation
under construction
In 5+2
nuclear
weapons
states
In 24 nonnuclear
weapons
states
243
200
23
14
216.3
153.3
23,8
11.2
Japan 56, S. Korea 20
Canada 18, Germany 17
Ukraine 15, Sweden 10
Spain 9, Belgium 7
Few companies (Rosatom (Russia), URENCO, USEC (USA), EURODIF (France), CNNC (China) and JNFL
(Japan) can enrich uranium on industrial scale.
Few countries (France, UK, Russia, Japan, India and China) have nuclear fuel reprocessing capacities.
Few countries have advanced fast reactor developments (Russia, France, Japan, India, China and
USA).
10
Countries are going to use nuclear energy during 2015-2030 and taking some initial actions for that.
Latin America: 3 + 2 expected new (Chile, Peru);
Western Europe: 9 + 3 expected new (Italy, Portugal, Turkey);
Eastern Europe: 10 + 3 expected new (Belarus, Kazakhstan, Poland);
Africa: 1 + 5 expected new (Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunis);
Middle East&South Asia: 3 + 1 expected new (Bangladesh);
South East Asia&the Pacific: 0 + 4 expected new (Australia, Indonesia,
Malaysia, Thailand);
Far East: 3 + 3 expected new (North Korea, Philippines, Vietnam).
In total about 21 new countries are considering to start using nuclear energy
during 2015-2030.
11
Текущее положение
Промышленные действующие АЭС (май 2008)
439
Мощность, GW(e)
372
Число стран
30
Производство электричества (2003), TWh
Оперативный опыт, реактор-год
Строящиеся АЭС
мощность, GWe
2524(15%)
12800
37(20 в Азии)
35
12
Действующие и строящиеся ядерные
реакторы в мире
Страна
Действующие
реакторы
No
Аргентина
Армения
Бельгия
Бразилия
Болгария
Канада
Китай
Чехия
Финляндия
Франция
Германия
Венгрия
MW(e)
2
1
7
2
935
376
5760
1901
4
16
8
6
2722
11323
5977
3548
4
59
18
4
2656
63363
20643
1755
Строящиеся
реакторы
No
1
3
MW(e)
692
2610
Ядерное электричество,
поставляемое в 2002г
TW*h
%
Полный оперативный
опыт на декабрь 2003
Годы
Месяцы
5.39
2.09
44.74
13.84
7.23
40.54
57.32
3.99
50
36
191
25
7
3
7
3
20.22
70.96
23.45
18.74
47.30
12.32
1.43
24.54
129
486
39
74
2
11
1
10
21.44
415.5
162.25
12.79
29.81
77.97
29.85
36.14
99
1346
648
74
4
2
0
2
13
Действующие и строящиеся ядерные
реакторы в мире (продолжение)
Страна
Действующие
реакторы
Строящиеся
реакторы
No
No
MW(e)
MW(e)
Ядерное электричество,
поставляемое в 2002г
TW*h
%
Полный оперативный
опыт на декабрь 2003
Годы
Месяцы
Индия
14
2550
8
3622
17.76
3.68
223
5
Японии
53
44139
3
3696
313.81
34.47
1123
7
Респ. Корея
19
15850
1
1040
113.13
38.62
220
8
Литва
Мексика
Нидерланды
Пакистан
Румыния
Россия
Словакия
1
2
1
2
1
30
6
1160
1310
449
425
655
20793
2442
655
2825
776
12.9
9.35
3.69
1.80
5.11
129.98
17.95
80.12
4.07
4.00
2.54
10.33
15.98
54.70
36
23
59
35
7
761
103
6
11
0
10
6
4
0
1
3
2
14
Действующие и строящиеся ядерные
реакторы в мире (продолжение)
Страна
Действующие
реакторы
No
MW(e)
Строящиеся
реакторы
No
MW(e)
Ядерное электричество,
поставляемое в 2002г
Полный оперативный
опыт на декабрь 2003
TW*h
%
Годы
Месяцы
Словения
1
656
5.31
40.74
22
3
Юж. Африка
Испания
Швеция
Швейцария
2
9
11
5
1800
7584
9451
3220
11.99
60.28
65.57
25.69
5.87
25.76
45.75
39.52
38
219
311
143
3
2
1
10
Украина
Великобритания
США
Всего
13
11207
73.38
45.66
279
10
81.08
780.10
22.43
20.34
1329
2871
8
8
2524
16
4
3800
27 12052
104 98298
442 369
26
23
12800
Прим.: Итог включает следующие данные Тайваня, Китая:
-6 ед., 4884 MW(e) действующих; 2 ед., 2600 MW(e) строящихся
- 33.94 TW*h выработки электроэнергии , представляет 20,53% от общего количества выработки 2002 года
-134 года и 1 месяц от общего эксплуатационного опыта
15
Nuclear Capacity Development
Construction Profile
45
400
Other Developing Countries
40
350
China & India
35
Jap & RoK
300
30
CIS & EE
25
GW
GW
250
200
W. Europe
150
20
15
10
100
5
50
0
1965
North America
0
-5
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Development of regional nuclear
generating capacities
140
North America
100
100
80
80
60
40
20
20
0
0
1965
80
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
1965
90
Eastern Europe & CIS
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
40
30
1965
1970
Asia
80
GWe
GWe
60
40
90
Western Europe
120
GWe
GWe
120
140
1965
1970
1975
A history of mistaken forecasts
In 1975 IAEA still forecast, globally
1990: 1000 – 1300 GW(e)
2000: 3600 – 5300 GW(e)
Actual 2008 capacity is just about 372 GW(e)
Reasons for the mid 1980s stagnation:
Energy efficiency improvements
Economic restructuring
Significant drop in electricity demand
Excess generating capacity
Oil (traded fossil energy) price collapse
Advent of the high-efficient cheap gas turbine
technology (GTCC)
Electricity market liberalization & privatization
Reasons for the mid 1980s (and beyond)
stagnation :
Little regard for supply security
Regulatory interventions after Three Mile Island
High interest rates
Chernobyl
Break up of the Soviet Union
All the above together: Nuclear power out of favour
(poor economics and lack of demand)
Nuclear Fuel Cycle
Spent fuel in storage around the world: historical data
through 2005 plus projections through 2020
160000
W e s te rn E u ro p e
140000
E a s te rn E u ro p e
120000
A s ia a n d A fric a
tH M
100000
A m e ric a
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
Year
2010
2015
2020
Relative energy content of Russian natural fuel
resources
U-238 - 86,7%
Coal - 8,7%
U-235 - 0,4%
Gas - 3,4%
Oil
- 0,8%
23
Symbiotic
Fuel Cycles
Mining &
Enrichment
Enriched UF6
Depleted UF6
Fabrication
Fabrication
Fuel Assemblies
U, PU &
Minor
Actinides
Fuel Assemblies
Thermal
Reactors
Used Oxide
Fuels
Fast Reactors
U, PU &
Minor
Actinides
Recycling
Used Metal Oxide
Fuels
Recycling
Fission Products
Fission Products &
Trace Actinides
Repository
Spent fuel and waste from a 1,000 MW nuclear
power plant operating(1) for 60 years
15,000
Low Level Waste
12,500
Intermediate
Level Waste
Packaged volumes
of spent fuel or 10,000
waste (m3)
Spent Fuel or
High level waste
7,500
5,000
2,500
0
Direct Disposal
1)
Decommissioning waste volumes are included
Re-cycle
Summary Fuel Cycle
• Extensive worldwide experience of the two main fuel
cycles
– Reprocessing
– Direct disposal
• 60 years of experience for mining, milling, enrichment,
storage and transport.
• Disposal of lower active wastes for decades
• Disposal of spent fuel and high level wastes within 15
– 20 years.
• The 3 P issue: Parity, Proportionality, Priority
Ядерные боеголовки
1945 - 2000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
27
Nonproliferation and Nuclear Security
Nuclear Nonproliferation: To curb and prevent
the spread of nuclear weapons, their delivery
means, and related materials and
technologies.
Owner Controlled
Area
Nuclear Security: The prevention and
detection of and response to theft, sabotage,
unauthorized access, illegal transfer or other
malicious acts involving nuclear material,
other radioactive substances, or their
associated facilities.
Protected Area
Double Fence
Protected
Area
Vital Area
Access Control Points
Status of major non-proliferation and security
conventions and treaties (as of April 2008)
Instrument
Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear
Weapons (NPT)
Convention on the Physical Protection of
Nuclear Material (CPPNM)
2005 Amendment to the CPPNM
Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear
Weapons in Latin America and the
Caribbean (Tlatelolco Treaty)
South Paci!c Nuclear Free Zone Treaty
(Rarotonga Treaty)
Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone
Treaty (Bangkok Treaty)
African Nuclear-Weapon-Free-Zone Treaty
(Pelindaba Treaty)
Central Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone
Treaty
International Convention for the
Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism
UN Security Council Resolution 1373
UN Security Council Resolution 1540
Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty
Contracting
states/parties
Entry into force
191
05/03/1970
136
08/02/1987
16
Not yet in force
33
25/04/1969
13
11/12/1986
10
27/03/1997
26
Not yet in force
3
Not yet in force
29
07/07/2007
28/09/2001
28/04/2004
144 (including 35
Annex 2 states)
Not yet in force
What is unique to nuclear is non-proliferation
• Preventing the misuse of nuclear materials for
non-peaceful purposes needs special attention
• It is an area where IAEA has a strict mandate
• Non-proliferation is a political problem
• NPT regimes needs strengthening
Non-proliferation – The NPT
• The basis for current non proliferation efforts is the
Treaty on Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)
– both non-proliferation and disarmament
• NPT Review Conference in May 2005 considered
strengthening verification and inspections (i.e.,
universal adoption of so-called Additional Protocol) –
No progress made
• Nuclear fuel cycle in non weapon states has become a
major focus of NPT by default
The elements of non-proliferation
Выработка АЭС электричества на душу
населения (2006)
33
Nuclear Energy and Society
Bjorn Wahlström
IAEA statute
• ARTICLE II: Objectives
• The Agency shall seek to
accelerate and enlarge the
contribution of atomic energy
to peace, health and
prosperity throughout
the world. It shall ensure, so far as it is able, that
assistance provided by it or at its request or under its
supervision or control is not used in such a way as to
further any military purpose.
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