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Population ageing in Finland

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Population Ageing in Finland:
Consequences and Policy Actions
Erkki Liikanen
Governor
Bank of Finland
Bank of Greece
17 January 2008
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
1
Population Ageing in Finland:
Consequences and Policy Actions
п‚Ё Demographic change is a global challenge
п‚Ё In Europe Finland is the first country to meet the steep
aging due to high post-war ( 1945- 1949) cohorts
п‚Ё Economic consequences of ageing are fundamental
п‚Ё The 2005 Pension Reform in Finland was designed to
ease ageing pressures for sustainability of pension
system and labour markets
п‚Ё But challenges still remain
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
2
T o ta l fe rtility (c h ild re n p e r w o m a n )
E u ro p e
G re e ce
F in la n d
3 .5
%
3 .0
2 .5
2 .0
1 .5
1 .0
0 .5
0 .0
2 0 4 5 -2 0 5 0
2 0 4 0 -2 0 4 5
3
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
2 0 3 5 -2 0 4 0
2 0 3 0 -2 0 3 5
2 0 2 5 -2 0 3 0
2 0 2 0 -2 0 2 5
2 0 1 5 -2 0 2 0
2 0 1 0 -2 0 1 5
2 0 0 5 -2 0 1 0
2 0 0 0 -2 0 0 5
1 9 9 5 -2 0 0 0
1 9 9 0 -1 9 9 5
1 9 8 5 -1 9 9 0
1 9 8 0 -1 9 8 5
1 9 7 5 -1 9 8 0
1 9 7 0 -1 9 7 5
1 9 6 5 -1 9 7 0
1 9 6 0 -1 9 6 5
1 9 5 5 -1 9 6 0
1 9 5 0 -1 9 5 5
S o u rc e : U n ite d N a tio n s .
L ife e x p e c ta n c y a t b irth (ye a rs )
E u ro p e
G re e ce
F in la n d
90
%
85
80
75
70
65
60
2 0 4 5 -2 0 5 0
2 0 4 0 -2 0 4 5
4
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
2 0 3 5 -2 0 4 0
2 0 3 0 -2 0 3 5
2 0 2 5 -2 0 3 0
2 0 2 0 -2 0 2 5
2 0 1 5 -2 0 2 0
2 0 1 0 -2 0 1 5
2 0 0 5 -2 0 1 0
2 0 0 0 -2 0 0 5
1 9 9 5 -2 0 0 0
1 9 9 0 -1 9 9 5
1 9 8 5 -1 9 9 0
1 9 8 0 -1 9 8 5
1 9 7 5 -1 9 8 0
1 9 7 0 -1 9 7 5
1 9 6 5 -1 9 7 0
1 9 6 0 -1 9 6 5
1 9 5 5 -1 9 6 0
1 9 5 0 -1 9 5 5
S o u rc e : U n ite d N a tio n s .
Population is greying faster in Finland than in
other Western countries
 Baby-boom (1945 – 19490) cohorts larger that
elsewhere
п‚Ё But the peak in fertility rate was also shorter than in other
countries and fertility went down soon
п‚Ё Life-expectancy has increased fast in Finland
=> An exceptionally large but also short baby-boom
together with increased longevity brings in Europe the
aging challenge first to Finland
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
5
Demographic Change: Ageing of Baby Boomers
1950
P e r ce n t
14
F in la n d
12
G re e ce
E u ro p e
U n ite d S ta te s
10
8
6
4
2
0
100+
9 5 -9 9
9 0 -9 4
8 5 -8 9
8 0 -8 4
7 5 -7 9
7 0 -7 4
6 5 -6 9
6 0 -6 4
5 5 -5 9
5 0 -5 4
4 5 -4 9
4 0 -4 4
3 5 -3 9
3 0 -3 4
2 5 -2 9
2 0 -2 4
1 5 -1 9
1 0 -1 4
5 -9
0 -4
S o u rc e : U n ite d N a tio n s .
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
6
Demographic Change: Ageing of Baby Boomers
1955
P e r ce n t
14
F in la n d
12
G re e ce
E u ro p e
U n ite d S ta te s
10
8
6
4
2
0
100+
9 5 -9 9
9 0 -9 4
8 5 -8 9
8 0 -8 4
7 5 -7 9
7 0 -7 4
6 5 -6 9
6 0 -6 4
5 5 -5 9
5 0 -5 4
4 5 -4 9
4 0 -4 4
3 5 -3 9
3 0 -3 4
2 5 -2 9
2 0 -2 4
1 5 -1 9
1 0 -1 4
5 -9
0 -4
S o u rc e : U n ite d N a tio n s .
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
7
Demographic Change: Ageing of Baby Boomers
1960
P e r ce n t
14
F in la n d
12
G re e ce
E u ro p e
U n ite d S ta te s
10
8
6
4
2
0
100+
9 5 -9 9
9 0 -9 4
8 5 -8 9
8 0 -8 4
7 5 -7 9
7 0 -7 4
6 5 -6 9
6 0 -6 4
5 5 -5 9
5 0 -5 4
4 5 -4 9
4 0 -4 4
3 5 -3 9
3 0 -3 4
2 5 -2 9
2 0 -2 4
1 5 -1 9
1 0 -1 4
5 -9
0 -4
S o u rc e : U n ite d N a tio n s .
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
8
Demographic Change: Ageing of Baby Boomers
1965
P e r ce n t
14
F in la n d
12
G re e ce
E u ro p e
U n ite d S ta te s
10
8
6
4
2
0
100+
9 5 -9 9
9 0 -9 4
8 5 -8 9
8 0 -8 4
7 5 -7 9
7 0 -7 4
6 5 -6 9
6 0 -6 4
5 5 -5 9
5 0 -5 4
4 5 -4 9
4 0 -4 4
3 5 -3 9
3 0 -3 4
2 5 -2 9
2 0 -2 4
1 5 -1 9
1 0 -1 4
5 -9
0 -4
S o u rc e : U n ite d N a tio n s .
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
9
Demographic Change: Ageing of Baby Boomers
1970
P e r ce n t
14
F in la n d
12
G re e ce
E u ro p e
U n ite d S ta te s
10
8
6
4
2
0
100+
9 5 -9 9
9 0 -9 4
8 5 -8 9
8 0 -8 4
7 5 -7 9
7 0 -7 4
6 5 -6 9
6 0 -6 4
5 5 -5 9
5 0 -5 4
4 5 -4 9
4 0 -4 4
3 5 -3 9
3 0 -3 4
2 5 -2 9
2 0 -2 4
1 5 -1 9
1 0 -1 4
5 -9
0 -4
S o u rc e : U n ite d N a tio n s .
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
10
Demographic Change: Ageing of Baby Boomers
1975
P e r ce n t
14
F in la n d
12
G re e ce
E u ro p e
U n ite d S ta te s
10
8
6
4
2
0
100+
9 5 -9 9
9 0 -9 4
8 5 -8 9
8 0 -8 4
7 5 -7 9
7 0 -7 4
6 5 -6 9
6 0 -6 4
5 5 -5 9
5 0 -5 4
4 5 -4 9
4 0 -4 4
3 5 -3 9
3 0 -3 4
2 5 -2 9
2 0 -2 4
1 5 -1 9
1 0 -1 4
5 -9
0 -4
S o u rc e : U n ite d N a tio n s .
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
11
Demographic Change: Ageing of Baby Boomers
1980
P e r ce n t
14
F in la n d
12
G re e ce
E u ro p e
U n ite d S ta te s
10
8
6
4
2
0
100+
9 5 -9 9
9 0 -9 4
8 5 -8 9
8 0 -8 4
7 5 -7 9
7 0 -7 4
6 5 -6 9
6 0 -6 4
5 5 -5 9
5 0 -5 4
4 5 -4 9
4 0 -4 4
3 5 -3 9
3 0 -3 4
2 5 -2 9
2 0 -2 4
1 5 -1 9
1 0 -1 4
5 -9
0 -4
S o u rc e : U n ite d N a tio n s .
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
12
Demographic Change: Ageing of Baby Boomers
1985
P e r ce n t
14
F in la n d
12
G re e ce
E u ro p e
U n ite d S ta te s
10
8
6
4
2
0
100+
9 5 -9 9
9 0 -9 4
8 5 -8 9
8 0 -8 4
7 5 -7 9
7 0 -7 4
6 5 -6 9
6 0 -6 4
5 5 -5 9
5 0 -5 4
4 5 -4 9
4 0 -4 4
3 5 -3 9
3 0 -3 4
2 5 -2 9
2 0 -2 4
1 5 -1 9
1 0 -1 4
5 -9
0 -4
S o u rc e : U n ite d N a tio n s .
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
13
Demographic Change: Ageing of Baby Boomers
1990
P e r ce n t
14
F in la n d
12
G re e ce
E u ro p e
U n ite d S ta te s
10
8
6
4
2
0
100+
9 5 -9 9
9 0 -9 4
8 5 -8 9
8 0 -8 4
7 5 -7 9
7 0 -7 4
6 5 -6 9
6 0 -6 4
5 5 -5 9
5 0 -5 4
4 5 -4 9
4 0 -4 4
3 5 -3 9
3 0 -3 4
2 5 -2 9
2 0 -2 4
1 5 -1 9
1 0 -1 4
5 -9
0 -4
S o u rc e : U n ite d N a tio n s .
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
14
Demographic Change: Ageing of Baby Boomers
1995
P e r ce n t
14
F in la n d
12
G re e ce
E u ro p e
U n ite d S ta te s
10
8
6
4
2
0
100+
9 5 -9 9
9 0 -9 4
8 5 -8 9
8 0 -8 4
7 5 -7 9
7 0 -7 4
6 5 -6 9
6 0 -6 4
5 5 -5 9
5 0 -5 4
4 5 -4 9
4 0 -4 4
3 5 -3 9
3 0 -3 4
2 5 -2 9
2 0 -2 4
1 5 -1 9
1 0 -1 4
5 -9
0 -4
S o u rc e : U n ite d N a tio n s .
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
15
Demographic Change: Ageing of Baby Boomers
2000
P e r ce n t
14
F in la n d
12
G re e ce
E u ro p e
U n ite d S ta te s
10
8
6
4
2
0
100+
9 5 -9 9
9 0 -9 4
8 5 -8 9
8 0 -8 4
7 5 -7 9
7 0 -7 4
6 5 -6 9
6 0 -6 4
5 5 -5 9
5 0 -5 4
4 5 -4 9
4 0 -4 4
3 5 -3 9
3 0 -3 4
2 5 -2 9
2 0 -2 4
1 5 -1 9
1 0 -1 4
5 -9
0 -4
S o u rc e : U n ite d N a tio n s .
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
16
Demographic Change: Ageing of Baby Boomers
2005
P e r ce n t
14
F in la n d
12
G re e ce
E u ro p e
U n ite d S ta te s
10
8
6
4
2
0
100+
9 5 -9 9
9 0 -9 4
8 5 -8 9
8 0 -8 4
7 5 -7 9
7 0 -7 4
6 5 -6 9
6 0 -6 4
5 5 -5 9
5 0 -5 4
4 5 -4 9
4 0 -4 4
3 5 -3 9
3 0 -3 4
2 5 -2 9
2 0 -2 4
1 5 -1 9
1 0 -1 4
5 -9
0 -4
S o u rc e : U n ite d N a tio n s .
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
17
Demographic Change: Ageing of Baby Boomers
2010
P e r ce n t
14
F in la n d
12
G re e ce
E u ro p e
U n ite d S ta te s
10
8
6
4
2
0
100+
9 5 -9 9
9 0 -9 4
8 5 -8 9
8 0 -8 4
7 5 -7 9
7 0 -7 4
6 5 -6 9
6 0 -6 4
5 5 -5 9
5 0 -5 4
4 5 -4 9
4 0 -4 4
3 5 -3 9
3 0 -3 4
2 5 -2 9
2 0 -2 4
1 5 -1 9
1 0 -1 4
5 -9
0 -4
S o u rc e : U n ite d N a tio n s .
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
18
Demographic Change: Ageing of Baby Boomers
2015
P e r ce n t
14
F in la n d
12
G re e ce
E u ro p e
U n ite d S ta te s
10
8
6
4
2
0
100+
9 5 -9 9
9 0 -9 4
8 5 -8 9
8 0 -8 4
7 5 -7 9
7 0 -7 4
6 5 -6 9
6 0 -6 4
5 5 -5 9
5 0 -5 4
4 5 -4 9
4 0 -4 4
3 5 -3 9
3 0 -3 4
2 5 -2 9
2 0 -2 4
1 5 -1 9
1 0 -1 4
5 -9
0 -4
S o u rc e : U n ite d N a tio n s .
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
19
Demographic Change: Ageing of Baby Boomers
2020
P e r ce n t
14
F in la n d
12
G re e ce
E u ro p e
U n ite d S ta te s
10
8
6
4
2
0
100+
9 5 -9 9
9 0 -9 4
8 5 -8 9
8 0 -8 4
7 5 -7 9
7 0 -7 4
6 5 -6 9
6 0 -6 4
5 5 -5 9
5 0 -5 4
4 5 -4 9
4 0 -4 4
3 5 -3 9
3 0 -3 4
2 5 -2 9
2 0 -2 4
1 5 -1 9
1 0 -1 4
5 -9
0 -4
S o u rc e : U n ite d N a tio n s .
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
20
Demographic Change: Ageing of Baby Boomers
2025
P e r ce n t
14
F in la n d
12
G re e ce
E u ro p e
U n ite d S ta te s
10
8
6
4
2
0
100+
9 5 -9 9
9 0 -9 4
8 5 -8 9
8 0 -8 4
7 5 -7 9
7 0 -7 4
6 5 -6 9
6 0 -6 4
5 5 -5 9
5 0 -5 4
4 5 -4 9
4 0 -4 4
3 5 -3 9
3 0 -3 4
2 5 -2 9
2 0 -2 4
1 5 -1 9
1 0 -1 4
5 -9
0 -4
S o u rc e : U n ite d N a tio n s .
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
21
Demographic Change: Ageing of Baby Boomers
2030
P e r ce n t
14
F in la n d
12
G re e ce
E u ro p e
U n ite d S ta te s
10
8
6
4
2
0
100+
9 5 -9 9
9 0 -9 4
8 5 -8 9
8 0 -8 4
7 5 -7 9
7 0 -7 4
6 5 -6 9
6 0 -6 4
5 5 -5 9
5 0 -5 4
4 5 -4 9
4 0 -4 4
3 5 -3 9
3 0 -3 4
2 5 -2 9
2 0 -2 4
1 5 -1 9
1 0 -1 4
5 -9
0 -4
S o u rc e : U n ite d N a tio n s .
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
22
Demographic Change: Ageing of Baby Boomers
2035
P e r ce n t
14
F in la n d
12
G re e ce
E u ro p e
U n ite d S ta te s
10
8
6
4
2
0
100+
9 5 -9 9
9 0 -9 4
8 5 -8 9
8 0 -8 4
7 5 -7 9
7 0 -7 4
6 5 -6 9
6 0 -6 4
5 5 -5 9
5 0 -5 4
4 5 -4 9
4 0 -4 4
3 5 -3 9
3 0 -3 4
2 5 -2 9
2 0 -2 4
1 5 -1 9
1 0 -1 4
5 -9
0 -4
S o u rc e : U n ite d N a tio n s .
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
23
Demographic Change: Ageing of Baby Boomers
2040
P e r ce n t
14
F in la n d
12
G re e ce
E u ro p e
U n ite d S ta te s
10
8
6
4
2
0
100+
9 5 -9 9
9 0 -9 4
8 5 -8 9
8 0 -8 4
7 5 -7 9
7 0 -7 4
6 5 -6 9
6 0 -6 4
5 5 -5 9
5 0 -5 4
4 5 -4 9
4 0 -4 4
3 5 -3 9
3 0 -3 4
2 5 -2 9
2 0 -2 4
1 5 -1 9
1 0 -1 4
5 -9
0 -4
S o u rc e : U n ite d N a tio n s .
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
24
Demographic Change: Ageing of Baby Boomers
2045
P e r ce n t
14
F in la n d
12
G re e ce
E u ro p e
U n ite d S ta te s
10
8
6
4
2
0
100+
9 5 -9 9
9 0 -9 4
8 5 -8 9
8 0 -8 4
7 5 -7 9
7 0 -7 4
6 5 -6 9
6 0 -6 4
5 5 -5 9
5 0 -5 4
4 5 -4 9
4 0 -4 4
3 5 -3 9
3 0 -3 4
2 5 -2 9
2 0 -2 4
1 5 -1 9
1 0 -1 4
5 -9
0 -4
S o u rc e : U n ite d N a tio n s .
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
25
Demographic Change: Ageing of Baby Boomers
2050
P e r ce n t
14
F in la n d
12
G re e ce
E u ro p e
U n ite d S ta te s
10
8
6
4
2
0
100+
9 5 -9 9
9 0 -9 4
8 5 -8 9
8 0 -8 4
7 5 -7 9
7 0 -7 4
6 5 -6 9
6 0 -6 4
5 5 -5 9
5 0 -5 4
4 5 -4 9
4 0 -4 4
3 5 -3 9
3 0 -3 4
2 5 -2 9
2 0 -2 4
1 5 -1 9
1 0 -1 4
5 -9
0 -4
S o u rc e : U n ite d N a tio n s .
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
26
T h e O ld -a g e D e p e n d e n c y R a tio s
F in la n d
G re e ce
E u ro p e
U n ite d S ta te s
%
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
T h e o ld -a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra tio is th e ra tio o f th e p o p u la tio n a g e d 6 5 ye a rs o r o v e r
to th e p o p u la tio n a g e d 1 5 -6 4 .
S o u rc e : U n ite d N a tio n s .
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
27
E n try to a n d e xit fro m la b o u r m a rke t in F in la n d
2 0 -2 4 ye a rs o ld
6 0 -6 4 ye a rs o ld
500 000
450 000
400 000
350 000
300 000
250 000
200 000
150 000
100 000
50 000
0
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
S o u rc e : S ta tis tic s F in la n d .
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
28
Policy challenges
п‚Ё Pension schemes under financial stress:
– Low fertility rate: Baby bust generation not able to finance baby
boom pensions => Need for pre–funding of pensions
– Increasing longevity: Steady increase in oldest age group
=> Need to lengthen economically active life span
п‚Ё Labour force start to shrink
– Labour supply decisions of the baby boom generation critical:
If they do not stay longer in work, labour shortages a big problem
=> Urgent need to increase retirement age
п‚Ё Spending on health and long term care expands
– Demand for social and health services increases dramatically
=>Need for productivity improvement in public services
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
29
The Finnish Pension system: main features/1
п‚Ё Two statutory pension schemes
– 1. National pension scheme guarantees a minimum pension
– 2. Employment based earnings-related pension scheme
п‚Ё Public pension benefits were 11 % of GDP in 2006
– Earnings-related pensions 9.5 % and national pensions 1.6 % of
GDP
– National pensions paid only when earnings-related pensions are
very small
п‚Ё Occupational and voluntary pension schemes are
negligible
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
30
The Finnish Pension system: main features/2
п‚Ё Earnings-related pension scheme is partly funded
– Pre-funded scheme covers a quarter of pension outlays
– The rest is financed through PAYG
п‚Ё Despite pre-funding, earnings-related pension scheme is of definedbenefit type
– The pre-funding is collective; it has no effect on the size of the pension.
п‚Ё Statutory pensions are taxed as earned income.
п‚Ё Financial position of earnings-related scheme:
– The system is running a surplus amounting to 2-3 % of GDP.
– The market value of pension fund’s assets was 66 % of GDP in
2006.
– Mandatory pension funds have more and more diversified their
portfolios also internationally
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
31
The 2005 Pension Reform was designed to
meet the challenges of ageing
п‚Ё The main objectives of the reform were:
1) To make the earnings-related pension system
financially more sustainable,
2) to increase labour market participation of senior
employees and
3) to make the pension system more equitable and
internally consistent
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
32
The Key Elements of 2005 Pension Reform to
improve the sustainability
п‚Ё The increase of the pre-funding
– Current mandatory pension funds are large in international
standards, but not large enough to smooth the demographic
burden in Finland,
– Funding of the pension schemes must be increased by 7.5 per
cent of the wage sum in 2006-2013.
п‚Ё The benefits will be linked to life-expectancy
– Life expectancy coefficient will adjust the pensions to the
changes in longevity as of 2009
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
33
The Key Elements of the Reform to increase
labour market participation of senior
employees
п‚Ё Flexible retirement age from 63 to 68 has been
introduced.
п‚Ё Early pension schemes have been closed or tightened of
and access to other pathways has been restricted
п‚Ё the accrual rate has been increased for senior
employees.
– In age 18-52 pension will accrue at rate 1.5, in age 53-62 at rate
1.9 and from 63 to 68 at rate of 4.5 per cent.
– In old system standard rate
п‚Ё The cap on the replacement rate has been abolished
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
34
Elements in Pension Reforms to make system
more equitable and internally consistent
п‚Ё Benefits will be based on life-time earnings
п‚Ё Pension indexation rules have been changed
– Pension index is a mix: 20 % weight of wages and 80 % weight
of consumer prices.
– Before weights were 50/50 up to age 65 and after that 20/80.
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
35
The objectives of the reform:
п‚Ё Effective pension age is expected to increase about 3
years from 60 to 63
п‚Ё Extension of working careers of older workers is
estimated to increase the overall employment rate by ВЅ1 percentage points
п‚Ё As a result, need for an increase in the contribution rate
is expected to diminish by 3-4 percentage points to 25
per cent.
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
36
Have the 2005 pension reform been a success:
What can we see from latest data?
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
37
E m p lo ym e n t ra te b y a g e g ro u p s
6 1 – 6 2 -ye a rs o ld
6 3 – 6 4 -ye a rs o ld
%
50
40
30
20
10
0
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
S o u rce : S ta tistics F in la n d .
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
38
P e n s io n re c ip ie n c y a m o n g th e p o p u la tio n a g e d 5 5 – 6 4 , ye a r 2 0 0 0
O rd in a ry d isa b ility p e n sio n
In d ivid u a l e a rly re tire m e n t p e n sio n
U n e m p lo ym e n t p e n sio n
O ld -a g e p e n sio n
S p e cia l p e n sio n s fo r fa rm e r
P a rt-tim e p e n sio n
% o f a g e g ro u p
100
80
60
40
20
0
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
S o u rce s: F in n ish C e n tre fo r P e n sio n s a n d S o cia l In su ra n ce In stitu tio n o f F in la n d .
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
39
P e n s io n re c ip ie n c y a m o n g th e p o p u la tio n a g e d 5 5 – 6 4 , ye a r 2 0 0 6
O rd in a ry d is a b ility p e n s io n
In d iv id u a l e a rly re tire m e n t p e n s io n
U n e m p lo ym e n t p e n s io n
O ld -a g e p e n s io n
S p e c ia l p e n s io n s fo r fa rm e rs
P a rt-tim e p e n s io n
% o f a g e g ro u p
100
80
60
40
20
0
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
S o u rc e s : F in n is h C e n tre fo r P e n s io n s a n d S o c ia l In s u ra n c e In s titu tio n o f F in la n d .
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
40
Future challenges
п‚Ё Pension contribution rate remains high even if the objectives of the
reform were achieved. The reform will not be able to curb the need
raise the contribution rate.
– Will the contribution rate be too high for the competitiveness?
– Does it cause efficiency losses? (According to Bank of Finland study, for
example, employment losses caused by contribution hikes can be
substantial.)
п‚Ё The long transition period protects older workers. Young generations
may challenge it.
– The reform in unemployment pensions schemes and life expectancy
adjustments will be effective only starting from age cohorts 1949 or
1950.
– Introduction of life expectancy coefficient favour older generations
п‚Ё Lack of transparency may counteract the positive labour supply
effects
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
41
Conclusions
п‚Ё Ageing is not an issue of the future but of today in
Finland
п‚Ё Policy responses have been a combinations of sticks
and carrots.
– Sticks: life-expectancy adjustment in replacement ratio and more
unfavourable pension indexation
– Carrots: generous accrual ratio for old workers.
п‚Ё Today a general view is that pension reform will ease
ageing pressures on labour market and pension
financing. Is it enough?
п‚Ё A huge challenge will be to increase productivity in social
and health services.
SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND
42
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