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Finland 2050

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Finland 2050
THE FUTURE OF REGIONS IN THE PERSPECTIVE OF GLOBAL CHANGE
How to use the Finnish inspiration
to develop the RegioFutures Programme?
Warsaw, June 9, 2008
Valtteri Kaartemo
Pan-European Institute
Turku School of Economics
valtteri.kaartemo@tse.fi
www.tse.fi/pei
Presentation outline
• Aim of the presentation
• Global change
• Future challenges of Finland
– Demographic change
– Service sector
• Concluding remarks
www.tse.fi/pei
AIM
Dear Mr. Kaartemo,
Welcome to the June conference.
Please consider in your presentation
the question - how to use the
Finnish inspiration to develop the
Regio Futures Programme.
Please accept my best regards,
Antoni Kuklinski
www.tse.fi/pei
AIM elaborated
• The perspective of global change
– Changes in the global division of labour
– Demographic changes
– Implications on the industry
www.tse.fi/pei
China and India keep on growing
(CIAВґs Long Term Growth Model)
www.tse.fi/pei
Projections of Finland and BSR
The role of China in the global change
www.tse.fi/pei
Global division of labour
Flow of low-competence jobs to low-cost
and close-to-the-market countries likely
to continue
Competition on knowledge-intensive
sectors increasing
Global companies create new models for
education
www.tse.fi/pei
Ennakointikulttuuri ja Suomi
(World Economic Forum 1998-2005)
www.tse.fi/pei
Global crises (Oxford Analytica)
Rank
Global Stress Point
1
CHINA/TAIWAN: Armed hostilities (x)
2
US/IRAN: US strike on Iran (x)
3
INTERNATIONAL: Human avian flu pandemic (x)
4
UNITED STATES: Deep recession (x)
5
INTERNATIONAL: Oil price shock (x)
6
PAKISTAN: State collapse (x)
7
INTERNATIONAL: Return to protectionism (x)
8
INTERNATIONAL: Terrorist dirty bomb (x)
9
IRAQ: Collapse of state institutions (x)
10
INTERNATIONAL: Chemical/biological attack (x)
11
INDIA/PAKISTAN: Armed hostilities (x)
12
INTERNATIONAL: Commodity price bust (x)
13
RUSSIA: Return to regional ascendancy (x)
14
LATIN AMERICA: Disruption to hydrocarbons sector
(x)
15
LEBANON: Civil war (x)
16
ARGENTINA: New sovereign default (x)
17
NORTH KOREA: Military conflict (x)
18
NIGERIA: Large-scale disorder in the Delta (x)
19
HORN OF AFRICA: Regional conflagration (x)
20
CENTRAL ASIA: Risk of major disorder (x)
21
BALKANS: Return to serious disruption (x)
www.tse.fi/pei
Finland’s challenges
Finland has three major challenges ahead:
•
•
•
Globalisation
Competence competition
Ageing
Requires creativity, dynamic willingness and capability to reshaping
(SITRA 2006)
www.tse.fi/pei
Key publications on
the future of Finland and BSR
Finland:
• Labour 2025
• FinnSight 2015
• Services 2020
Baltic Sea Region (BSR):
• VASAB 2010 + 2030
www.tse.fi/pei
Strategic basic options
for Finland
1. Development through crisis
2. Decline without huge crisis
3. Controlled renewal process
by exploiting future opportunities and
by preventing future threats
SITRA (2005)
www.tse.fi/pei
Opportunities and threats can be
found by analysing the changes
in the operating environment
1. Trend analysis
2. Scenario analysis
3. Weak signals/wildcards
www.tse.fi/pei
Three basic methods
in foresight research:
Trend analysis
One or several dominating
development process analysed
Scenario analysis
Several alternatives described and
analysed
Weak signal analysis
Uncertain but potentially high impact
www.tse.fi/pei
Megatrends and
development processes
Economy globalises
Globalistion
Resource allocation changes and
the importance of economies of scale increases
Technology waves
Regional and social system:
hierarchical, multi-centred or networked?
Social fragmentation
And polarisation trends
Changes in interaction between cities and rural areas
(inner-city rural areas, peripheries)
Demographic changes
Changes in the shape of cities
Challenges of sustainable
development
Changes in welfare state
Multilayered decision-making
in polictics and
international politics
Risk society or ecological modernisation?
Changes in social life
www.tse.fi/pei
Weak signals
and wild cards
Weak signals may develop new opportunities
which other operators have not yet noticed
in “the noise”
Affects companies directly or indirectly via
business environment
May provide opportunities and threats
Often underestimated by people who are
aware of the phenomenon
Takes time before turns into “mainstream”
www.tse.fi/pei
Global megatrends
1. Economic changes as a result of globalisation and economic
integration (impact of network economics)
2. Technological changes (ICT, biotechnology, and nanotechnological
revolution as a result of technological convergence)
3. Social and cultural changes (social polarisation, subcultures,
mobility, multicultural societies, ”woman power” -movement)
4. Demographical changes such as ageing and migration
5. Environmental changes and challenges
6. Political changes (increasing importance of international decisionmaking and security policy)
www.tse.fi/pei
Globalisation and
economic change
• Hierarchical world cities
• Cross-border growth regions
• Development corridors (e.g. Northern Dimension
Growth Triangle, E18, Tallinn-Helsinki)
• Importance of capital region in networking
• Global localisation
• Strategic importance of the growth of network economics
• EU’s region and development policies
• Global institutions and networks
www.tse.fi/pei
4 basic scenarios for Finland
A1: Globalising Finland:
Rapid EU enlargement
A2: Finland as an unlimited resource
exploiter:
Breakdown of semi-federalist EU
B1: Finland of sustainable development:
Slow EU enlargement
B2: Finland of local governance:
Neglection of EU enlargement
www.tse.fi/pei
What if…
Globalising
Finland
Unlimited
resource
exploiter
Sustainable
development
Finland
Local
governance
Finland
Population
Migration
Labour force
R&D
expenditure
Education
expenditure
www.tse.fi/pei
What if…
Globalising
Finland
Unlimited
resource
exploiter
Sustainable
development
Finland
Local
governance
Finland
Population
concentration
Mobility of
people
Equality
Industrial
concentration
Entrepreneurship
www.tse.fi/pei
What if…
Globalising
Finland
Unlimited
resource
exploiter
Sustainable
development
Finland
Local
governance
Finland
Unemployment
Regional
polarisation
Company
taxation
Income
taxation
Public health
expenditure
www.tse.fi/pei
What if…
Globalising
Finland
Unlimited
resource
exploiter
Sustainable
Development
Finland
Local
governance
Finland
Social
expenditure
Security
expenditure
Public debt
Usage of
renewing energy
sources
Voting activity
www.tse.fi/pei
What if…
Globalising
Finland
Unlimited
resource
exploiter
Sustainable
development
Finland
Local
governance
Finland
Share of
women in
labour
Labour
participation
rate
Networking of
people
Coal taxation
www.tse.fi/pei
Finland in structural change
• Structural change is not over after 15 years of
drastic changes
• In 2020 less than 25% of labour force in
industry, while in 1990 the share over 30%
• The share of service sector as an employer will
climb up to 73% in 2020,
while in 1990 the share about 60%
• Employment grows in electronics, business
services, hotels and restaurants, private
services, and health care and social services
• Employment continues to decrease in
agriculture, manufacturing industry (apart
from electronics), wholesales, finance, and
public administration
www.tse.fi/pei
Important point
Decrease in employment is caused also
by structural changes in the modes of
companies which affects statistics
”Number employed in industry has not
decreased significantly when outsourcing
to service sector is counted”
”This development is different from may
other countries”
Hannu Piekkola, ETLA
www.tse.fi/pei
Wild cards
Events and processes with low probability (often 10-20 %) of
occurance but high impact (economic, social, political, ecological)
on society and organisations
The following ten wild cards on Finland’s future were presented by
Research Director Jari Kaivo-oja in August 2007
www.tse.fi/pei
10 wild cards affecting Finland’s
economic and political environment
1. Sub-prime crisis into global depression
2. Fast accumulating crises from climate change
3. Russia’s new foreign policy
4. Ecological breakdown of China
5. Chaotic crisis of Pakistan and
the involvement of India
www.tse.fi/pei
DM 240922
04-2007 Copyright В© Tekes
10 wild cards affecting Finland’s
economic and political environment
6. Pandemias
7. Acute shortage of labour in Europe and
uncontrolled immigration to Europe
8. Global recession caused by speculative money
9. The end of Nokia’s success
10. Crisis of welfare services
www.tse.fi/pei
DM 240922
04-2007 Copyright В© Tekes
NOTICE!
There may also be positive
wild cards!
www.tse.fi/pei
Demographic change
www.tse.fi/pei
Global and regional competition for talents
www.tse.fi/pei
Decline in young population
- loss of dynamic forces
www.tse.fi/pei
Age pyramids in Finland
in 2003 and 2030
2003
2030
www.tse.fi/pei
Dependency ratio
by 2050
www.tse.fi/pei
Demographic change
and its implications
• Where do aged population settle –
cities or rural areas, Finland or migration
• Challenge of securing services for the aged –
need for social and technology innovations
• Need for migrant workers in 2010s
• The future of welfare cluster
• Who takes care of the elder and the babies if
shortage of labour in Finland?
• Competition for talents
www.tse.fi/pei
Social, health and
educational costs
www.tse.fi/pei
Crisis coming before 2050?
The Ministry of Finance’s 2006 Stability Programme:
pensions- related expenditure rises from 11% of GDP in
2010 to 14% in 2030 and stays there until 2050
Public expenditure as a percentage of GDP will increase
from 48% in 2010 to 58% in 2050
GDP growth rate that is expected to decline from 2.2%
in 2010 to 1.4% by 2030 and stay there until 2050
public debt will rise from 35.8% of GDP in 2010 to
an unsustainable 117.5% in 2050.
www.tse.fi/pei
McKinsey’s recipe
survival of the welfare system requires policies that will
generate annual economic growth of “well over 2% –
closer to 3%”
It is essential to strengthen . . . Finnish companies’
global competitiveness by improving productivity.
Action must be taken to create new jobs in growth
sectors.
Financing of the country’s welfare services must be
secured by raising the rate of employment.
www.tse.fi/pei
Growth in megacities
Lähde: CIA 2003
www.tse.fi/pei
Population centres
in the Baltic Sea Region
www.tse.fi/pei
European engine cities
www.tse.fi/pei
Scenarios for
regional structure in Finland
Deeply polarised: Development in favour of large
centres and the zones between them. Death of small
and mid-sized centres and rural areas
Multi-centred and balanced: More balanced than
hierarchically strongly concentrated network of large
and mid-sized cities. Successful regions in rural
areas concentrate around these various centres
Decentralised regional structure: Activities and
people move into small centres and periphery
Mustikkamäki and Viljamaa (2001)
www.tse.fi/pei
Change of population 20032030 by region in Finland
www.tse.fi/pei
Labour 2025
• “Full employment, high productivity
and good jobs will provide the
foundation for well being as the
working age population diminishes”
• economic growth rate will slow down
– but growth will continue, rise in the standard
of living
• employment in service sector will continue
to increase
– further decrease in primary production and
industry
www.tse.fi/pei
Labour 2025
• the most important objectives of economic and
social policy are to maintain a high employment
rate and a low unemployment rate
• balance of labour supply and demand
• in the 2010s the question will not be whether
enough jobs can be created for a growing
workforce, but whether new jobs can be created
elsewhere in the economy as vacancies created
by retirement remain unfilled in some businesses
or other work communities.
www.tse.fi/pei
Change in labour market
until 2050
www.tse.fi/pei
Strength of Europe?
(World Bank 2007)
www.tse.fi/pei
Where will the workers come?
www.tse.fi/pei
Population development
in Eurasia
www.tse.fi/pei
FinnSight 2015
• project examined the global and
social change factors that have
impact on Finnish business and
society
• also aimed at identifying the future
challenges of innovation and
research activity
www.tse.fi/pei
FinnSight 2015
• The dynamics in the global division of
labour are about to impact all the
countries which have opened up to the
global economy.
• In traditional industrialist states, the share
of conventional industries on production
and employment diminishes, and the role
of service sector increases.
www.tse.fi/pei
Finnsight 2015
• the market for skilled workers is strongly globalising
– possibilities to attract skillful workers to home country
– but also raises the threat of braindrain to the countries
with the best working and living environment.
• balance of power within science and technology is shifting
towards the emerging economies
– the growth in emerging economies is likely to outpace
that of Europe and the United States.
• These issues have significant impact on Finland’s
employment and international competitiveness.
• Already by 2015
www.tse.fi/pei
Services 2020
• “to anticipate the changes that will
take place in the private service
industry and the operational
environment of the individual
sectors, and to examine how these
changes will be reflected in the
competence requirements in the
sectors being evaluated”
www.tse.fi/pei
Changes in the consumption pattern in Finland
in 1900-2002: Towards service economy
100.0
80.0
5.3
12.4
19.6
4.9
3.4
14.7
5.5
28.7
2.9
6.4
12.9
10.2
60.0
59.2
40.0
7.3
8.6
46.0
28.7
Terveys
Huonekalut ja
tarvikkeet
Vaatteet ja jalkineet
Liikenne
Sekalaiset tarvikkeet
ja palvelut
Asuminen ja energia
Ruoka ja juoma
20.0
16.0
0.0
1900 1913 1925 1938 1950 1964 1975 1990 1998 2002
www.tse.fi/pei
Trend towards service economy
www.tse.fi/pei
Challenges of service sector
in Finland…
the share of services in GDP is lower than developed country
average
Productivity in services is lower than European average
Less competition in service sector than European average
Higher prices in service sector than European average
Lower level of internationalisation than European average
Lower impact on employment than European average
-Productivity could be improved by developing services
-Currently only 12% of R&D investments in services
www.tse.fi/pei
Dilemmas of innovation policy
in Finland (service perspective)
Concentration on benchmarking ideas and one model in
innovation processes
Technology needed in service innovations before taken seriously
No clear model on cross-border innovations
Not enough market research analysis in the phase of
commercialisation
Too slow processes in support and administration
Research and knowledge in immaterial rights poorly developed
on int’l level
Service design –knowledge is not on high level
Lack of capability in combining knowledge in franchising and
logistics
www.tse.fi/pei
Special challenges (and opportunities)
in franchising-business in Finland
Development of high-level research and
competence
Combination of technological expertise
in franchising
High-level competence in brand strategies
Specialisation in service innovations
in franchising
Government support for development of expertise
in marketing and customer service
Development of E-commerce models to support
Finnish companies
www.tse.fi/pei
Innovation challenges of service
economy in Finland
•
Need for regional service sector strategies
•
Lack of innovative service firm clusters
•
Lack of respect for service culture and service development
•
Acceptance for the idea that technology not always needed for service
innovation
•
Problems in commercialisation of high tech and services
•
Internationalisation of service companies must be improved
•
Digitalisation and e-commerce should need more attention
•
Also services should be able to brand and market
•
Global market research should be more used in development of science
and technology parks (tech push vs. market pull)
•
Lack of understanding on service innovations in the eyes of financers
(compared to Sweden and Denmark)
www.tse.fi/pei
DM 240922
04-2007 Copyright В© Tekes
Total entrepreneurial activity
in 2004
www.tse.fi/pei
Co-operation in Nordic innovation policy
www.tse.fi/pei
Trends in consumer market
1. Consumer Kids
2. Millennials at Work
3. Heteropolitans
4. MABYs
5. Boomers – branding to 60-100 year-olds
Lähde: Anterior Insight 2007
www.tse.fi/pei
Challenges from
the emergence of new technologies
www.tse.fi/pei
The development of Finland
in the future
• Even more innovation-driven society: vision of large
campus – considered the best justified vision
• Finland as a network of science and technology parks,
which is linked to global centres of competence
• Technological and social innovations in focus
• Increasing transparency of state borders and the
development of the EU towards a federal state
• Finland becoming more multicultural society
• Climate change makes the climate in Finland warmer, more
humid and more extreme weather conditions occur –
change needed in agriculture and forestry to match the
needs, growth in climate and environment business
www.tse.fi/pei
The development of Finland
in the future
•
Level of education further increases
•
A part of Finland focuses on recreational services –
whereas some focuses on a competence in certain sector
•
Russia and the Baltic Sea Region remain important for the
economy of Finland
•
The development of the EU is crucial for Finland
•
If entrepreneurship is not improved nationally, Finland as
”remote desktop”- and ”subsidiary”-economy
•
Connections to globalising world increasingly important
•
Current welfare state-model changes dynamically towards
emphasis on the public-private -partnership
•
Competence on nanotechnology and space science are
important on a long-term
www.tse.fi/pei
The development of Finland
in the future
Finland is mostly unable to compete in low
cost level
Possibilities are in innovation and competence
Finland remains as a home for most
demanding goods and services
Finland produces what others can not
Competitiveness of business environment
remains crucial to attract new investments
www.tse.fi/pei
Summary of key statements
in foresight publications
• With the current trend, the
question on global division of
labour is likely to become even
more crucial for Finland.
• Need for RFP from the
perspective of global change
www.tse.fi/pei
The importance of
asking the right question
• What is the question we aim at finding the
answer?
• Finland 2050:
– Economy
• Labour
• Services
– Technology
– Healthcare
– Environment
+ Slovenia 2050 + Italy 2050 + Poland 2050…
• Interrelated but vast!
www.tse.fi/pei
Questions to be solved
in the planning process
• Streamlined problematisation
with a common vision
• What is the role of comparative
studies internal to the study?
• What is the role of comparative
studies external to the EuroFutures
Programme?
www.tse.fi/pei
Concluding remarks
• What comes beyond service sector?
• We should concentrate on the issues which
are likely to matter in 2050
and present the ideas clearly
• Imagination needed from 2025 onwards
– How can we deploy the best imagination
in Europe?
www.tse.fi/pei
Finnish inspiration
for project outcomes
• regional centres for
foresight research until 2025
• regional foresight forums
(www.ennakointifoorumi.fi)
(http://nff.risoe.dk/index.htm)
until 2050
• Inter-regional co-operation
in resource allocation
www.tse.fi/pei
Loop system
Loop between regions
region 2050
country 2050
Europe 2050
world 2050
world 2050
Europe 2050
country 2050
region 2050
region 2050
country 2050
Europe 2050
world 2050
Loop between methodologies
www.tse.fi/pei
Suggestions for next steps
• Funding instruments
• Selection of partners
• Concrete research plan
with measurable outcomes
• Realistic budget and schedule
WE HAVE AN IMPORTANT PROGRAMME
AND WE SHOULD START IT
BEFORE WE LOSE OUR MOMENTUM
www.tse.fi/pei
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