UNECE/Eurostat Seminar on Migration statistics, Geneva, 21-23 March 2005 How Do the CIS Countries Estimate Migrants Stock (Do They)? Olga Chudinovskikh Moscow State University Outlines пЃ® пЃ® пЃ® пЃ® пЃ® UN approach to migrant stock estimation in the CIS countries: do the UN definitions always guarantee a correct result? Evolution in tradition of migrantsвЂ™ identification in RF and USSR What data valid for migrants stock estimation do the national censuses (Round 2000) in the CIS countries present? Data sources (related to migrants stock) in the Russian Federation Conclusions UN DESA Population Division: Trends In Total Migrant Stock: The 2003 Revision пЃ® The United States is the largest recipient of international migrants, with 35 migrants in 2000. It is followed by the Russian Federation (13 million), Germany (7 million), Ukraine, France and India. Estimations for the successor states were derived by taking account of пЃ® пЃ® migration flows that occurred among them in 1990-2000, and by considering the number of persons enumerated in RF, but born in other Republics of the former USSR according to 1989 census of the USSR.вЂќ (Source: Keiko Osaki. The International Migrant Stock a Global View. Paper presented at the IOM seminar вЂњWorkshop on Approaches to Data Collection and Data ManagementвЂќ Geneva, - 9 September 2003, IOM website). Problematic issue (1): Combination of criteria used for different periods пЃ® 1990- 2000 (annual statistics data)вЂў crossing the border, вЂў for residence вЂў (neither citizenship, nor place of birth) пЃ® Before 1990 вЂ“(census data) place of birth (out of the republic) Problematic issue (2): пЃ® Before the collapse of the USSR it was migration of вЂў nationals of the same state вЂў born in the same state (major part of cases) Problematic issue (3) вЂў Rules of migrants registration and statistical observation were changed in 1996 > underestimation of foreign migrants since 1996 вЂў Over- and underestimation of stock (International) migrant definition in the USSR and the RF statistics and scienСЃe Before 1990- main problems: to decrease migration from ruarl areas and to stimulate migration to the regions of rapid industrial development. No experience of international migration estimation (no special methodology, no special definitions) Demographic encyclopedia published in 1985 defined only вЂњa migrantвЂќ as вЂњa person who migrates, i.e. пЃ® crosses the administrative borders of territories and пЃ® changes place of residence for more or less long periodвЂќ. These criteria were used for statistical observation both of internal and international migrants in the USSR and Russia , neither citizenship, nor place of birth criterion is used. Since 2002 data on citizenship of migrants (annual flows)are published in satistics yearbooks. 1992-1993 вЂ“ refugees and forced migrants definitions (in special laws), 2002 вЂ“ foreign citizens and stateless persons definition (in a special law) No concrete definiton of an international migrant (Inertia or heritage of the past) UN estimation of migrant stock in selected countries. Source: UNPopulation Division, DESA,International migration 2002 (United Nations Publication, Sales No. E.03.XIII.3). Migrant stock Total Population (thousands) Belarus Russian Federation Ukraine Number (thousands) Per cent of population 10 187 1 284 12,6 145 491 13 259 9,1 49 568 6 947 14,0 Census : the main source of data for migrants stock estimation. Questions related to migration in the CIS Censuses (Round 2000) programmes пЃ® пЃ® пЃ® пЃ® пЃ® пЃ® пЃ® Place of birth Citizenship Had lived in the place of residence since birth / not since birth If not вЂ“ since what year вЂ“ Previous place of residence (Except RF ) In some countries- place of residence at the census moment (Moldova), - If was temporary absent вЂ“ (period of absence ) (Azerbaijan ), Refugees or deported (Ukraine, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan) + Languages, ethnicity In the RF census program place of previous residence was mentioned only by those who arrived in 1989-2002 and related to the date of the previous census: Where lived in 1989 (Region, Rural or Urban area) Table 1. Basic data on foreigners and foreign born population in selected CIS countries. Source: National censuses data (Round 2000) (Absloute- thousands ) Abs. Armenia % Abs. Ukraine % Abs. Belarus % Abs. Kazakhstan % Abs. Russian Federation % Born out of the rep. Citizens of the other countries and stateless pers. No answer on citizen ship Population Born in the republic 3213,0 2927,3 285,7 3185,5 27,5 100% 91,1% 8,9% 99,1% 0,9% 48240,9 43084,7 5156,2 47950,0 169,1 100% 89,3% 10,7% 99,4% 0,4% 10045,2 8886,4 1158,8 9934,5 107,8 2,9 100% 88,5% 11,5% 98,9% 1,1% 0,0% 14953,1 12839,8 2113,2 14867,9 85,2 0,0 100% 85,9% 14,1% 99,4% 0,6% 142442,4 1025,4 1269,0 98,1% 1,0% 0,9% 145166,7 100% Nationals Data are being processed 0,0 0,0 Period of residence criteria (arguments pro): Table 2. Distribution of life-time migrants (born and arrived from abroad) by period of Residence in selected CIS countries Source: National censuses data (Round 2000) Period of residence (years) 5 and < Ukraine After the collapse of the USSR total Before the collapse of the USSR Abs. % Belarus 6 -- 9 10 and more 351123 423451 4377354 5.156.240 778.886 4.377.354 6,8% 8,2% 84,9% 100% 15% 85% 198883 199738 864402 1.263.023 398.621 864.402 15,7% 15,8% 68,4% 100,0% 32% 68% Abs. % Chart 1. Distribution of lifeвЂ“time migrants born out of the republic by period of residence in selected CUS countries (source-see table 2) Ethnicity: if it can be a criterion for migrants stock identification? One must be very careful using this criterion пЃ® RF population вЂ“ 190 ethnic groups, пЃ® Ukraine, Belarus population - more than 130 ethnic groups The criterion of ethnicity partially can be applied to some categories of migrants to monitor their presence in the country. Table 3. Percentage and dynamics of titular population in selected CIS countries. (Source - National censuses (Round 2000) data, Statistics yearbook вЂњCIS countries in 2002вЂќ) Dynamics of titular population since the % of non% of titular last USSR census titular population (1989) population Azerbaijan 90,6% 1,24 9,4% Armenia 99,1% 0,98 0,9% Belarus 81,2% 1,03 18,8% Kazakhstan 53,4% 1,23 46,6% Kyrgyzstan 64,9% 1,40 35,1% Russuans 1,12 mln, 1,4 mln did not specify ethnicity 79,8% 0,97 20,2% Ukraine 77,8% 1,003 22,2% Russia- Chart 2. Foreigners, foreign born and non-titular population in selected CIS countries- what criteria is the best? 0% Armenia Belarus Kazakhstan Ukraine 5% 0,9% 0,9% 1,1% 0,6% 0,4% 15% 10% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 8,9% 11,5% 18,8% 46,6% 14,1% 10,7% Non-titular population 22,2% Foreign born Foreigners The Russian Federation sources of data on international migration : which one to choose for migrants stock estimation? Table 4. Main migration data systems in Russia Authority 2-11- parts of Central data bank of foreigners (in future) Quality of data and methodology Availability 1 Current statistics of migrants (based on registration procedure) вЂ“ both foreign and internal flows Ministry of home affairs/ Federal statistics service Unsatisfactory, considerable underestimation Available 2 Data on permits on arrival for residence (foreigners) and departure for residence (Russian citizens) Ministry of home affairs Moderate. Not processed since 2002. Was partially available up to 2002 3 Data on refugees and asylum seekers Ministry of home affairs (Federal migration service- FMS) Satisfactory Available 4 Data on work permits for foreign employees and Russian citizens l employed abroad via Russian employment agencies Ministry of home affairs (FMS) Unsatisfactory, considerable underestimation Available 5 Data on residence permits and permissions for temporary residence Ministry of home affairs (FMS) No information on methodology Not available 6 Migration cards statistics Ministry of home affairs (FMS) No information on methodology Not available 7 Border statistics Federal security service (Federal Border Service) No information on methodology Partially available Data on foreign students Ministry of science and education Satisfactory Available 9 Visas and invitations statistics Ministry of foreign affairs No information on methodology Not available 10 Ministry of Taxes data Ministry of Taxes No information on methodology Not available 11 Population Census Federal statistics service Satisfactory Available 8 Categories of foreigners covered by RF Census2002 program Full census program (questionnaire) covered: 1. Foreign citizens and stateless persons вЂ“ residents of Russian Federation 2. Persons officially employed in RF (in Russian and foreign organizations and enterprises) and students - if intended to stay in Russia for more that 1 year 3. Asylum seekers Short census program covered: 1. Foreign residents who stayed in Russia temporarily and intended to stay here for less than 1 year 2. Tourists, patients in hospitals, private guests, transit migrants Main results вЂ“ 1 mln вЂ“ citizens of foreign countries, 1,3 mlndid not identify citizenship, 40 thous. вЂ“ have double citizenship. Official annual statictics of migration. Undrestimation : since 1996 considerable part of migrants (both internal and international) are excluded from statistical observation пЃ® Since 1996 international (and internal) migrants are registered in the police by Place of residence Place of temporary stay (no time limits) Included into statistical observation Since 2002 international migrants should be excluded from statistical observation (data collected only in administrative sources, not available) пЃ® 2000. X. - foreigners need to get residence permit to be registered (many migrants from abroad are excluded from observation), пЃ® 2002- New Law on foreignersвЂ™ status вЂ“ foreigners should not be observed by current statistics (theoretically)- (additional criterion вЂ“ citizenship). пЃ® Since 2002 official annual statistics (theoretically) must observe only the RF nationals Table 5. Nationals and foreigners in international migration flows: RF annual official statistics of migration RF Nationals With double citizenship Foreigners Including: CIS and Baltic countri es Total Stateless Other foreign countries In-migration 2002 184612 166325 23847 15311 13941 1370 2976 2003 129144 108767 19060 17257 16511 746 3120 Out-migration 2002 106685 100732 5917 4626 3883 743 1327 2003 94018 89971 4863 2893 2651 242 1154 Net-migration 2002 77927 65593 17930 10685 10058 627 1649 2003 35126 18796 14197 14364 13860 504 1966 Administrative (police) sources. Main definitions of foreignerвЂ™s status in Russia (some of them define categories of migrants to be included into migrants stock). 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Temporary stay : term of stay - by visa expiry term , or <90 days. Not more than 12 months) Temporary resident (<3 years, annual re-registration) Permanent resident ( <5 years, re-registration, number of reregistrations is unlimited) Military status (5 year contract) Special status (diplomats) Foreign employee Refugee According to the Law foreign citizen must be registered in police during three days after his/her arrival. Ukraine citizens вЂ“ 90 days . Details and variables: information collected about applicant for residence permit Name, sex, date of birth, citizenship, temporary address, marital status, family members having residence permit, place of job, study, source and type of income,, В«criminalВ» background or administrative rules violation experience, moves out from Russia , where, purpose of trip. Work permits statistics: only legal workers > underestimation of irregular migrants, 2003 - 378.000 work permits, stock of irregular migrants - appr. 2 - 5 mln Basic problems (besides underestimation of flows): пЃ® Some categories of foreign citizens are not included into estimation (Byelorussians) пЃ® Primary work permits and prolonged permits are not estimated separately пЃ® Duration of contract is not estimated Table 6. The RF Statistics of forced migrants and asylum seekers :main figures. 2002 including: Forced migrants total 20504 Total forced resettlers 20453 Accumulated figures of registered migrants by 1 January 2004 since beginning of registration 2003 including: refug ees Forced migra nts total 51 4726 including forced resettler s refug ees Forced migrant s total 4668 58 360.796 forced resettlers (since 1 July 1992) refugees (since 20 March 1993) 352.071 8725 пЃ® Previous place of residence (accumulated and registered during the year under review) New place of residence (RF regions) Number of applications for refugee status Number of refugees by place of origin and place of destination Age and sex composition Level of education Ethnicity пЃ® Etc. пЃ® пЃ® пЃ® пЃ® пЃ® пЃ® Table 7. Border statistics (available data) : Foreign citizensвЂ™ purposes of trip and countries of origin/ destination Country of origin / (destination) Total (entries / (departures) 2002 Purpose of trip (entries) Service Tourism Private Residence Transit Assistant personnel 524335 1493249 23308711 429592 838786 17056693 Total 12338 3014159 3105563 15159067 1246973 578249 13951382 49667 15631 95602 370 23721 12501 197492 119710 36677 2499082 5425 114599 180500 2955993 Citizens of : CIS and Baltic countries: Byelorussia Kazakhstan, etc. 11711 Other countries: вЂ¦. Foreign citizens registration data bank - will it be a register of foreign population? Planned to be created by January 2006, responsible authority вЂ“ Federal Migration service Stage 1 (Ministry of home affairs data) 1. Migration cards information on arrivals and departures of foreigners 2. Data on refugees and asylum seekers 3. Labour migrants data (work permits data) Stage 2 (Ministry of home affairs data) 4. Residence permits, temporary residence permits and stay permits 5. Information on crimes committed against foreigners and by foreigners Stage 3 (other ministries data) 6. Federal border service data 7. Visas and invitations statistics 8. Customs Committee data 9. Ministry of taxes data 10. Other ministries and authorities data on foreigners Stage 4 Information exchange and distribution (rules are not defined) Surveys: The recent (and, perhaps, the best one) IOM survey: Irregular migrants in Russian Federation (Moscow Migration Research Program 2002 ) Questionnaire вЂ“ more than100 questions пЃ® 3034 respondents (including migrants from the CIS countries, Afghanistan, China and Vietnam, etc.) , 30% had work permit, 50% had police registration пЃ® 9 regions (including Moscow, St.Petersburg and Far East region) пЃ® Estimated ratio of irregular migrants in regional population from 0.5% to 10%. Total estimated stock of irregular migrants - 5 mln. Pedriod of stay? пЃ® 90% of irregular migrants stock вЂ“ from the CIS countries пЃ® Estimated migrants stock of Chinese - 400.000 Why data on migrants stock are considered to be important? They are supposed to create a background for the estimation of economic, political and cultural consequences of foreign migrantsвЂ™ presence in the country, their interaction with local population, etc. There is a viewpoint that migrant stock data are necessary to вЂњmonitor the size and composition of population with foreign origin having a long-term view on their integrationвЂќ (Source: Enrico Bisogno, Presentation вЂњInternational migration: practices of 2000 Round and issues for 2010вЂќ. UNFPA-UNECE-NIDI Training Programme on International Migration 24-28 January 2005). Migrants who moved before the collapse of the USSR (and partially вЂ“ after) needed adaptation rather than integration: Рјajority of them пЃ® spoke the same language, пЃ® had common cultural roots, пЃ® were born in the same country and пЃ® were nationals of the same state Our opinion upon methodology used for migrants stock estimation in the RF(and other CIS countries) Positive: without similar or closer approaches and methodologies of migrant stocks and flows estimation international data comparison becomes problematic. пЃ® Not so positive: however, in some cases methodology must be more flexible to avoid an oversimplification of the task, especially if the situation is not simple and if we deal with a heterogeneous object. пЃ® Conclusions пЃ® пЃ® пЃ® пЃ® пЃ® пЃ® пЃ® пЃ® пЃ® No concrete or uniform definition of long-term international migrant in the CIS countries Prevalence of citizenship criterion Significance of period of residence criterion (the RF viewpoint) RF is more likely to exclude migrants who moved before the collapse of the USSR from the stock, in the other CIS countries situation is not clear. Ethnicity can not be (the main) criterion for migrant identification in the CIS countries Basic source of data for migrants stock estimation вЂ“ Census Data from the other sources (RF case) either not available or not reliable. In RF the main source of annual data - current statistics on international migration is not reliable for migrant stock estimation. Practical use of migrant stock estimation must be discussed. Historical background of population should be taken into account.