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NRC«Kurchatov Institute»
Аppearance of a Base Reactor of the XXI
Century Following from Long-Term
Tendencies Global Regionalization
O.Dobrocheev, P.Alekseev
1
The world got closer now to the limits of population
and industrialization growth.
Forecasted by Forrester in 1970 years
Forrester
1,2
Forr -2
Turb
1
Turb -2
0,8
0,6
0,4
0,2
0
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
-0,2
2
The mechanisms of the world economy
stabilization - reduces the main source of
population growth in rural areas
deals with growth energy production and population per
square in the city (S.P. Kapitza, 2012)
q ~ 1/L,
S=L²
3
The regionalization - another mechanisms of the
world economy stabilization
- 16 autonomous
geo-economic zones of "World Bank report 2009“
4
What we have to do after these?
Thinking
But how thinking?
We need new conceptions
One of them is social turbulence hypothesis
(it allow to describe of fluctuation and selforganization processes of different types of
systems)
5
Hydrodynamic Similarity of Kolmogorov
(Колмогоров 1962 )
Fluctuations spectrum of the energy of social
and hydrodynamic flow is similar
Next steps of the hypothesis development
1978 – Synergy (Prigogine, Haken)
1989 – Theory of complexity (Per Bak, Kan
Chen
1994 – Social turbulence (Baturin, Dobrocheev)
6
The first principles of social
turbulence
1. The behavior of very large systems (VLS) of particles (which are
usually part of a larger whole) can not be defined by active forces
(causes ), but by the sustainability of the entire system of the same
elements as a whole
2. The behavior VLS can not be defined in the exact coordinates, but
only in heir fluctuations
3. The behavior VLS can be defined only from one point to another
bifurcation (long cycle existence )
4. Thus knowledge of the laws of turbulent allows us to define not only
one single direction of the system development, but a vector field of
the most likely (stable) movements (Dr W. Lelek).
5. In this logic, the decision-maker is important! Without him\she, the
solution (thinking) process is not complete
There are radically different from the mechanic and
thermodynamic
7
The social turbulence laws
1. There are critical levels of size of the stable
system, described by an exponential law of
Kuzmin – Zhirmunsky (1991)
L ~ R exp (-r),
R is size of the whole system (channel radius, for
example), r - degree
2. The Kolmogorov law for long wave period
Т³~L²
3. Energy fluctuations spectrum of turbulence
E ~ (1- l/L)² (l/L)²/³
l/L - the relative size of the fluctuations
Energy fluctuations spectrum of turbulence
(Доброчеев 1995)
E ~ (1- l/L)² (l/L)²/³
1,2
Kolmogorov law
1
0,8
0,6
my hypothesis
0,4
0,2
l/L
0
-0,2 0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
The relative size of the fluctuations l / L
9
Frequency spectrum of the social turbulence
length scale – L (size of the state),
comparison theory and dates
10 Length
Статистика
Теория
Россия
Китай, США, ...
1
1
f
10
100
friguency
0,1
частота пов торяемости
10
The first social turbulence
consequence for the global economy
wave
Long wave global economy and scientific
concepts is defined from Kolmogorov law
ТGW/TUS~(LGW/LUS)²/³ ~(12/3)²/³
Kondratiev wave TUS ~ 60 years
Global long wave ТGW ~ 140 years
Long wave of new scientific
concepts is about 140 years
1680-1710 - the dynamics of Newton,
1860 - thermodynamics of Boltzmann,
1980 – Synergy, 1990-2000 - theory of
complexity, social turbulence.
Super long wave of base of world
outlook is about 560=140x4
560 years B.C. - the Buddha,
0 year
- the Christ,
560 year
- Mohammed,
1680
- Newton
The long wave of the new base
technologies is about 70=140/2
Steam engines transport - 1825 - 1896
2. Oil and gas industry - 1900 – 1970
3. Spacecraft - 1942 – 2012,
4. Well-known stages of the nuclear project
1943 - the first reactor, 1986 (43 years after
the beginning) - Chernobyl, 2011 (68
years after the start) - Fukushima
1.
The next (2) social turbulence
consequence for the global economy
The asymptotic solution (2001 y.) of the
structure of a sustainable global world
economy l/L->1
Size of the great power L = RЗемли/2=3200 km
(examples: U.S., China, Brazil, Canada)
Unit of the great powers N = (DЗемли/L)² = 16
This solution corresponds exactly to the new geoeconomic structure of the world of the N=16
units proposed in the Report of the World Bank
in 2009
15
Scheme of asymptotic solution of the
structure of a sustainable global world
economy (Dobrocheev 2001)
16
M. Parmelee, 1949 г.
17
Dynamics of the political complexity
of the world (N units of great powers)
10
Великие державы
Прогноз 2001
my forecast, 2001
1
1900
1950
2000
2050
18
The next (3) social turbulence consequence
- decrease energy consumption per person
The regionalization of the global economy
and energy L = RЗемли/2
should lead to a more than 2-times decrease
in the density of social energy
E ~ (L)²/³
and thus necessary physical energy
19
Comparison of turbulent estimates E~(1- l/L)²( l/L)²/³
and Makarov Academician actual data give us
similar result
E2050/ E2010
~ 1/2,5
World energy consumption per person
3
2,5
Мир
2
1,5
1
0,5
0
1900
1950
2000
2050
20
The next (4) consequence
Corridor for the natural and man-made evolution
(system diameter from cycle production)
diameter
Spacecraft
Nuclear Reactor
Embryonic
Cycle, days
21
The consequence of the turbulent law
of natural and man-made evolution
The size of the reactor zone (R)
R ~ E³/²
and a period of industrial production of
a new reactor (T)
T~E
22
Next (5) social turbulence consequence
The turbulent nature of intellectual activity
The frequency spectrum of vibrations of the creative activity of Jack
London (points). Comparison with the Kolmogorov law (lines)
100
Лонд он
Ту рб
10
1
0 .0 1
0 .1
1
0 .1
23
Similar solar activity and Tutchev
(Тютчев) creative activity
Сопоставление динамики творчества Тютчева с динамикой
солнечной активности
30
С т ихот в орен ия
25
S
20
15
10
5
0
- 5 20
25
30
35
40
24
New thinking principles
are derived from the turbulent nature of intellectual activity
(
(We need it for the project of power systems stability)
1. A critical amount of background information is
described by an exponential law of critical levels
of Kuzmin - Zhirmunsky
2. The highest speed of solutions takes place in a
zone of high intellectual turbulence (highly
sensitive to small external moderators of
different nature)
3. The most stable (long term) solution of local
problem should be found at the borders of the
problem field (example, world economy for
nuclear energy)
25
Conclusion
1. 2012 is the bifurcation point of nuclear
energy. 2013 - virtual start a new nuclear
project
2. The size of the XXI century reactor will
be more than 4 - times decrease of the
base reactor of the XX century.
3. It regulation will be based on new
(turbulent) thinking principles
This work is a part of the
interdisciplinary research conducted
by the Kurchatov Institute
Thank you for your
attention
Oleg Dobrocheev
www. peremeny.ru
28
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