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World Trade in 2009 and 2010 - AIECE autumn - Coe

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World Trade in 2009 and 2010
Report submitted to the AIECE Autumn General Meeting
Brussels, 4th-5th November 2009
By Alain Henriot
• Content
1. Overview of the world economy and general
assumptions
2. Imports and domestic demand
3. Exports and price competitiveness
4. Trade balances
-2
• Financial and raw materials markets have
given an early sign of the rebound
60000
Domestic Market Capitalization (USD bil ions)
50000
40000
30000
20000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
-3
• Raw material and energy prices have
already strongly recovered
Industrial raw materials prices
January 1988=100 (in dollar terms)
220
Brent
U.S. dollars barrel
140
180
100
80
140
60
120
100
40
30
80
18
60
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
-4
• World economy fell into recession in 2008Q4 and 2009Q1
before registering a positive growth in 2009Q2, which should
have been strengthened in 2009Q3
8
%
y-o-y, %
quarter-on-quarter, %
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
В© Coe-Rexecode
-5
• World industrial production back to previous
trend (but a huge gap in terms of level)
115
2005=100
110
105
100
95
90
85
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
-6
• Most recent figures show a pick up in
world trade during last summer
10
y-o-y, %
130
20 5=10
5
120
0
CPB
Coe-Rexecode
CPB
Coe-Rexecode
-5
10
* (Sept. est.)
-10
10
-15
90
-20
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
2008
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
2009
J
A
S
O
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
2008
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
2009
-7
• However, the use of « soft » data (here world PMI export
order books) can be a bit misleading in the current context
regarding the measure of the intensity of the rebound
20
y-o-y , %
70
10
58
0
45
World tr ade (volume - LHS)
World export order books PMI (RHS)
-10
33
-20
20
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
-8
• The gap between the current level of world
trade and the pre-crisis level remains huge…
20
y-o-y, %
140
20 5=10
120
10
100
0
80
60
-10
CPB
Coe-rexecode
CPB
Coe-Rexecode
40
-20
20
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
-9
• … the consequence of an historical drop
in trade flows
World trade: an historical perspective
40
annual percentage change
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
1929
1939
1949
1959
1969
1979
1989
1999
2009
- 10
• World trade forecast: a strong rebound
followed by a moderate growth (+7.4% in 2010
after -13.5% in 2009)
140
Table 1. -
2 0 5 =1 0
World trade: indicative quarterly profile
2005 = 100
120
10
80
60
40
20
0
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
9
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
2008
2009
2010
120,0
103,8
111,5
2008 Q1
2008 Q2
2008 Q3
2008 Q4
2009 Q1
2009 Q2
2009 Q3
2009 Q4
2010 Q1
2010 Q2
2010 Q3
2010 Q4
122,9
121,8
121,0
114,2
102,2
100,5
105,1
107,4
109,0
110,7
112,3
114,0
Juin 09
Juillet 09
AoГ»t 09
Septembre 09
100,9
104,7
102,3
108,4
YoY %
-13,5
7,4
QoQ %
-0,9
-0,6
-5,6
-10,5
-1,7
4,6
2,2
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
MoM
3,8
-2,3
6,0
10
- 11
• Turning points of world trade and industrial
production business cycles are very similar
Growth cycles of world imports and world
industrial production
0.10
Deviation to trend
0.08
World imports
World industrial production
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
-0.02
-0.04
-0.06
-0.08
-0.10
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
- 12
1. Overview of world economy and general
assumptions
2. Imports and domestic demand
3. Exports and price competitiveness
4. Trade balances
- 13
• First signals of a recovery were observed
in emerging countries but no decoupling
Import levels in volume terms
150
2005=100
140
W orld
Developed
e
Emerging
co
130
120
110
100
90
80
2007
2008
2009
- 14
• China played a leading role here, leading
other Asian countries
China: imports by main suppliers
150.0
Bil ions of US dollars (3 months mov. avg.)
Total
Asia
Apec
Japan
E.U.
Asean
USA
100.0
50.0
10.0
5.0
1.0
0.5
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
- 15
• The situation in other emerging countries
remain heterogeneous regarding imports
dynamism
Import levels in volume terms
180
2005=100
160
160
140
140
120
NPIA
OPEC
CEEC
120
2005=100
Latin America
Emerging Asia (excl. NPIA )
Africa (excl. OPEC countries)
Mid le East (excl. OPEC countries)
10
10
80
80
60
40
60
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
- 16
• We expect only a moderate growth of developed countries
imports in 2010. No further gains of terms of trade in 2010
(transfers in 2009 of about 1% of GDP), but no inflationary
pressure.
Import levels in volume terms
120
2005=100
130
2005=100
120
Germany
Italy
UK
France
110
10
USA
Japan
European Union (7 countries)
100
90
80
80
70
60
2002
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2009
- 17
1. Overview of world economy and general
assumptions
2. Imports and domestic demand
3. Exports and price competitiveness
4. Trade balances
- 18
• Weakness of the dollar might slow the recovery
in the Euro area
Price competitiveness: national export prices/competitors in a common currency
120
2005=100
160
2005=100
140
110
120
100
100
China
South Korea
80
Euro area
Japan
USA
90
60
40
80
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
- 19
• Germany and Japan especially hit by the
contraction of the sales of equipment goods
Value of exports (7 months 2009/7 months 2008, percentage change)
France
Germany
Japan
Italy
Korea
Spain
UK
USA
Total
-30,8
-32,5
-35,9
-34,2
-22,5
-30,6
-34,0
-24,8
Machinery
and
equipment
-32,7
-35,5
-40,3
-35,8
-19,5
-34,2
-35,6
-26,1
Share of
Mach. &
Equip. in total
exports (%, 7
months 2009)
38,4
47,3
63,4
37,5
55,4
36,0
35,6
42,8
- 20
1. Overview of world economy and general
assumptions
2. Imports and domestic demand
3. Exports and price competitiveness
4. Trade balances
- 21
• Main trade imbalances have not been fully
offset by the crisis
Trade balance
B illio n s o f U S d o lla rs
400
200
0
2008
-2 0 0
2009
2010
-4 0 0
-6 0 0
-8 0 0
-1 0 0 0
Eu ro a re a
G e rm a n y
Ja p a n
Ch in a
US A
- 22
• Some risks of the forecast
Downside risks
пЃЊ
. Would Europe and the U.S. find enough support from their
internal demand to keep the global recovery continuing?
. Overheating in China might trigger a double dip late 2010
. Global imbalances raises a risk on the exchange rate
system (crash of the dollar)
. As a consequence of trade deficits and high unemployment,
the U.S. and Europe can be attracted by protectionist
measures
- 23
• Some risks of the forecast
Upside risks
пЃЉ
. The catching up process (huge output gap) might imply a
quicker and longer economic growth of activity and trade
than expected
. Emerging countries could take the lead of world trade
growth to satisfy internal needs
- 24
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