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Current State and Outlook for Russian
Ferrous Scrap Market in 2006
Andrey Kuzmin
Head of Raw Materials Department
Metal Courier Information Agency
CIS Steel and Raw Materials in the World Markets
13-14 April 2006, Kyiv
Main Points of Presentation
• Russian Scrap Market Structure
• Volume and Price Change Tendencies
• Russian Scrap Market Outlook
Russia. Steel Production and Ferrous Scrap Collection, Mt
C ollection
32,5
Production
Scrap
Steel
67,5
2005
65,0
Steel Production
in Russia
30,0
27,5
66,2 Mt
25,0
62,5
22,5
20,0
60,0
17,5
Scrap Collection
Volume
30,1 Mt
15,0
57,5
12,5
10,0
55,0
2002
2003
2004
2005
Russia. Export and Domestic Scrap Supplies, Mt
35,0
Domestic Market
30,0
Export
2005
Russia, Scrap
Supplies
25,0
Domestic
Market
16,2 Mt
20,0
15,0
Export
10,0
13,9 Mt
5,0
0,0
2002
2003
2004
2005
Russia. Domestic Market Structure in 2005
Krasny Oktyabr
4%
Amurmetall
4%
Others
18%
Severstal
20%
MMK
11%
VTZ
5%
OEMK
5%
NKMK
6%
Urals Steel
7%
ZapSib
7%
NLMK
7%
ChMK
7%
Russia. Export Structure in 2005
Turkey
27%
Others
20%
Italy
3%
Moldova
3%
Taiwan
5%
Greece
5%
China
6%
South Korea
12%
Belarus
9%
Spain
10%
Russia. Dynamics of Scrap Price and Export Volumes
Volume, '000 t
1400
$/mt fob
Volume
300
Price
1200
250
1000
200
800
150
600
100
400
50
200
0
Mar-04
0
Jun-04
Sep-04
Dec-04
Mar-05
Jun-05
Sep-05
Dec-05
Mar-06
Russia Domestic Market Volume and Average Price per year
Mt
22,5
$/mt
Volume
190
Price
170
20,0
150
17,5
130
110
15,0
90
12,5
70
10,0
50
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006*
Scrap Consumption Growth in Russia in 2006-2007, Mt
2006
2007
- new steel-melting capacities
2,5
3,2
- increasing share of continuous casting
0,9
1,4
- at current steel-melting capacities
0,2
0,15
Total
3,6
4,75
Металл-Курьер
Metal Expert
Информационно-поисковая
он-лайн система и
еженедельный бюллетень
English-speaking people are
welcome to
our international web-site
www.metalcourier-online.com
www.metalexpert-group.com
новости, рынки,
цены, статистика
news and prices
research and forecasting
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