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RailplanModelling in Support of TfL London Rail’s HLOS2

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Railplan Modelling in Support of TfL London
Rail’s HLOS2 Rail Strategy Development
An AECOM Presentation
International EMME User Conference, London, UK
Andrew Coates & Tim Price
23rd February 2010
Content of Presentation
• Context of HLOS – What is it?
• Current HLOS Commission
• Corridors Considered
• Railplan Model Enhancement
• Future Year Forecasting
• Model Outputs
• Business Case Development
• Conclusions
23rd February 2010
Context of HLOS – What is it?
• HLOS – High Level Output Statement
• DfT’s statement of what it wants Network Rail to deliver in
each 5 year Control Period
• TfL feed into this process, to specify what it wants to see
delivered in the London area
• AECOM worked with TfL during 2005/6 on it’s �Vision 2025’
project, to specify schemes to be implemented during
Control Period 4 (2009 to 2014)
• Railplan Modelling and Business Case Development led to
TfL’s input to DfT HLOS1
Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development
23rd February 2010
Page 3
Current HLOS2 Commission
• DfT currently considering the specification for HLOS2, for
schemes to be delivered in Control Period 5 (2014 to
2019)
• Therefore TfL re-commissioned AECOM in early 2009 to
start looking at rail schemes in and around London area
• The work involved wider scope than HLOS1, covering not
only Railplan modelling and business case development,
but also the rail engineering and operating costs, as well
as timetable analysis
Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development
23rd February 2010
Page 4
HLOS2 – Corridors Tested
• Schemes were looked at for individual rail corridors as
well as on a London-wide basis
Thameslink
(East Midlands)
Great Northern
West Anglia
West Coast
Great Western
/ Crossrail
Essex
Thameside
London
Overground
High Speed 1
South Western
South Eastern
South Central
Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development
23rd February 2010
Page 5
Railplan Model Enhancement
• TfL’s Public Transport Railplan Model used for demand
forecasting and option testing
• Railplan Version B5.4 as the starting point
• Further model enhancements undertaken during the study:
– Zonal and Matrix Disaggregation
– Improved Network Coverage
– Subsequent Base Year Model Revalidation
– Updated Future Year Service Coding
– Route Choice at Heathrow
– Implementation of HS1 Premium Fares
Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development
23rd February 2010
Page 6
Railplan Zonal Disaggregation & Network Improvement
• Railplan zoning was disaggregated in the Cambridgeshire /
Norfolk area to improve representation for West Anglia and
Great Northern routes
• Disaggregation also
took place in the South
West area for
South West / Great
Western area
• Later in the study some
disaggregation took
place in Essex for C2C
Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development
23rd February 2010
Page 7
Railplan Zonal Disaggregation & Network Improvement
• The red dots indicate
where additional stations
have been added
Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development
23rd February 2010
Page 8
Railplan Model Revalidation
• The revalidation focused principally on those areas where
zones had been disaggregated
• Attention was also given to London terminal arrivals, where
significant improvements in validation compared to the
existing Railplan B5.4
• Validation for London arrivals undertaken in phases along
with the rail corridors that were considered
• Subsequent further re-validation undertaken before doing
the London Wide tests
Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development
23rd February 2010
Page 9
Railplan Model Revalidation Summary
Modelled London Arrivals
Standard Railplan B5.4c
Modelled London Arrivals
London Wide HLOS Model
%age of PIXC.
78%
85%
94%
90%
129%
106%
108%
101%
119%
128%
111%
100%
93%
93%
%age of PIXC
79%
87%
94%
87%
96%
106%
108%
100%
116%
120%
112%
101%
93%
93%
100%
98%
Station
BLACKFRIARS TOTAL
CANNON STREET SET
CHARING CROSS SET
EUSTON TOTAL
FENCHURCH STREET
KINGS CROSS TOTAL
LIVERPOOL STREET TOTAL
LONDON BRIDGE
MARYLEBONE
OLD STREET
PADDINGTON TOTAL
ST PANCRAS TOTAL
VICTORIA TOTAL
WATERLOO TOTAL
LONDON TOTAL
Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development
23rd February 2010
Page 10
Route Choice at Heathrow Modification
• At Heathrow, Railplan B5.4 takes London Transport Airport Model
(LTAM) demand
• This demand is split by mode, with individual zones connected only
to their respective mode nodes, so that the demand is �captive’ and
not responsive to service change
• This poses a problem when testing new schemes, such as those
involving Airtrack or variant Crossrail services
• Solution was to make service choice available at Heathrow, through
• providing a �central’ access node at each of the Heathrow terminals
• converting the premium fares paid on the relevant services into
additional journey time
Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development
23rd February 2010
Page 11
Route Choice at Heathrow Modification (Cont.)
Separate
access
nodes
Central
access
node
Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development
23rd February 2010
Page 12
HS1 Premium Fares
• Treatment in the existing Railplan B5.4
• Demand for High Speed 1 (HS1) services estimated outside of Railplan
• Captive demand only linked to fixed origin zones
• Again not responsive to service changes
• Treatment in the Railplan Model for HLOS2
• HS1 services and centroid connectors recoded
• An additional time penalty included on HS1 services to represent the
premium fare paid
• HS1 demand no longer fixed but now able to respond to service changes
in the South Eastern area
Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development
23rd February 2010
Page 13
Future Year Forecasting
• Reference Cases were updated for each of the standard
Railplan forecast years of 2016 and 2026
• Forecasting year option testing involve two Railplan runs
• Initial Railplan assignment was undertaken using the fixed Railplan
future year demand matrix
• Calculation of generated/suppressed trips as a result of the service
changes between the two scenarios using an elasticity method
• Second Railplan assignment was undertaken using the updated
demand matrix
• These results of these Railplan runs are fed into scheme
impact assessment and business case model
Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development
23rd February 2010
Page 14
Overview of Elasticity Approach
Railplan Run 1 –
Ref Case Assignment
Ref Case scenario
Time matrix
Railplan Run 2 – Test Scenario
(pre-elasticity) Assignment
Test scenario
Time matrix
Apply elasticity to calculate
modal shift from car and
newly generated trips
Railplan Run 3 – Test Scenario
(post-elasticity assignment)
Calculation of revenue and economic benefits as part
of business case development
Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development
23rd February 2010
F пЂЅ(
GJT new
)^ g
GJT old
F – Factor to be applied to
the number of trips for a
particular demand zone pair
GJTnew – Generalised time in
the Test scenario
GJTold – Generalised time in
the Reference Case
G – Elasticity.
Page 15
Railplan Model Outputs
• Standard Railplan outputs (*.res, *.sta, *.tt etc)
• Tabulation of Network Statistics
–
–
–
–
Change in total demand
Change in passenger boardings by service group and by station
Change in passenger-kms by service group
Change in passenger hours (crowded and un-crowded)
• EMME and ENIF Plots
–
–
–
–
–
Change in seated and total capacity
Change in service frequency
Change in passenger volumes
Level of crowding (no. of pax standing per sqm of standing space)
Changes to population and employment accessibility
• Further outputs as input to Business Case Calculation Tool
Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development
23rd February 2010
Page 16
Example Model Outputs – Network Statistics Summary
2026
2016
Network Statistic
Demand
Passenger Hours
(Crowded)
Passenger Hours
(uncrowded)
Total Passenger
Hours
Total Boarders
Railplan Scenario
Absolute
Value
Diff (relative
to Do_Min)
Absolute
Value
Diff (relative
to Do_Min)
2,326,240
Do_Min
2,469,104
Test (Pre-elasticity)
2,469,104
0
2,326,240
0
Test (Post-elasticity)
2,470,430
1,326
2,327,401
1,161
173,077
Do_Min
207,733
Test (Pre-elasticity)
186,543
-21,190
155,028
-18,049
Test (Post-elasticity)
187,206
-20,527
155,381
-17,696
3,384,577
Do_Min
3,628,192
Test (Pre-elasticity)
3,626,066
-2,126
3,382,601
-1,976
Test (Post-elasticity)
3,628,398
206
3,384,634
57
Do_Min
3,835,925
Test (Pre-elasticity)
3,812,609
-23,316
3,537,629
-20,025
Test (Post-elasticity)
3,815,604
-20,321
3,540,015
-17,639
Do_Min
3,914,568
Test (Pre-elasticity)
3,915,251
683
3,636,637
1,123
Test (Post-elasticity)
3,918,274
3,706
3,638,622
3,108
3,635,514
53,347,599
57,454,487
Do_Min
Total Passenger Kms Test (Pre-elasticity)
Test (Post-elasticity)
Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development
3,557,654
57,437,415
-17,072
53,331,352
-16,247
57,502,905
48,418
53,386,955
39,356
23rd February 2010
Page 17
Example Model Outputs – Passenger Kilometres by
Mode and by Service Group
2016
Network Statistic
Passenger Kms
Passenger Kms
Service Group
West Anglia Inners
West Anglia
Suburbans
Railplan Scenario
Absolute
Value
2026
Diff (relative
to Do_Min)
Absolute
Value
Diff (relative
to Do_Min)
Do_Min
382,353
Test 1
372,455
-9,898
411,456
-4,924
Test 2
390,345
7,992
427,774
11,394
Do_Min
850,430
Test 1
960,756
110,326
1030448
84,480
Test 2
962,821
112,391
1,037,782
91,814
Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development
September 24, 2014
Page 18
416,380
945,968
Example Model Outputs – Change in Demand
Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development
23rd February 2010
Page 19
Example Model Outputs - Crowding
Before the
implementation
of the scheme
National Rail AM Peak Hour Standing Density (pax/sqm)
Seats available
Busy: 1 to 2 pax/sqm
Very Busy: 3 to 4 pax/sqm
Some Standing 0 to 1 pax/sqm
Crowded 2 to 3 pax/sqm
Maximal: 4+ pax/sqm
Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development
23rd February 2010
Page 20
Example Model Outputs - Crowding
After the
implementation
of the scheme
National Rail AM Peak Hour Standing Density (pax/sqm)
Seats available
Busy: 1 to 2 pax/sqm
Very Busy: 3 to 4 pax/sqm
Some Standing 0 to 1 pax/sqm
Crowded 2 to 3 pax/sqm
Maximal: 4+ pax/sqm
Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development
23rd February 2010
Page 21
Example Model Outputs – Pop and Emp Accessibility
Test versus Reference Case
пЃ± No. of jobs within 45
mins of residence
пЃ±Population within 45
mins of employment
opportunity
пЃ±Changes in the average
no of jobs within 45
minutes of residence
пЃ±Changes in population
within 45 mins of
employment opportunity
Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development
23rd February 2010
Page 22
Business Case Development
• A business case calculation tool was developed in spreadsheet
• Quantifiable benefits/disbenefits include
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Revenue Impact
User Time Savings (Based on Rule-of-half principle)
Accidents
Highway Decongestion Benefits
Noise
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Local Air Quality Costs
Indirect Taxation
Dwell Time Savings
Bus Operating Costs
• Present values of costs and benefits as well as the BC ratios can then
be calculated
Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development
23rd February 2010
Page 23
Business Case Development
• The Business Case calculation takes Railplan model
outputs for both �with’ and �without’ elasticity method
applied, as the input data
• Business Case assumptions, parameters and procedure
are compliant to WebTAG guidance
• The business case results, combined with network demand
and capacity analysis, formed the basis for option selection
• The preferred schemes were taken forward to a �London
Wide’ Railplan scenario, and the overall Benefit Cost ratio
calculated
Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development
23rd February 2010
Page 24
Conclusions
• AECOM was commissioned by TfL LR in support of its development of
HLOS2 rail enhancement strategy
• Modelling work used TfL’s Railplan B5.4 model as the starting point,
with a number of modelling issues identified early in the study
• Further improvements to Railplan were undertaken resulting in a revalidated Base Year model and updated future year reference cases
• The improved model was then successfully used for assessing impact
of service changes to public transport demand and passenger routing
choice
• A set of Railplan model outputs were generated to assist in option
selection and scheme assessment
• Business cases were developed for schemes of individual corridors as
well as at a London wide level
Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development
23rd February 2010
Page 25
Thank You
Any Questions?
23rd February 2010
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