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The London Thames Gateway - London School of Economics

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The Thames
Gateway:
still needed, but
still a
government
priority?
Ros Dunn
Chief Executive
Thames Gateway London Partnership
7 March 2011
My talk today
• Some history
• Some lessons from history
• The Thames Gateway today..........
• .........and tomorrow?
What/where is the Thames Gateway?
The Thames Gateway boundary captures 4000
hectares of brownfield development sites
Some history
• The London Docks took a heavy beating during WW2
and by the 1970s the Docklands and east London fell
into decline due to a mixture of de-industrialisation and
migration out of the area to Essex and Kent.
• The creation of the London Docklands Development
Corporation was a catalyst for the regeneration of
London Docklands and the re-development of the Isle of
Dogs.
• New transport links such as the DLR and the Jubilee
underground line extension acted as a further catalyst
for change.
Some history contd
• By the 1990s the focus moved from Docklands to the
wider Thames Gateway, which became an area
earmarked for significant housing growth and
development due to the availability of brownfield land
and the potential to develop the transport system.
• Regeneration was further boosted following the
successful bid for the Olympic and Paralympics Games
in 2012.
• Sir Terry Farrell set out his vision for the Thames
Gateway based on sustainable growth.
Timeline of developments in the Thames
Gateway (how the policy makers saw it)
LDDC
established
1980
1990
East
Thames
Corridor
concept
Thames
Gateway
Planning
Framework
(RPG 9A)
1995
LDDC
ceases
operation
Formation
of Thames
Gateway
Strategic
Partnership
Draft
Replacement
London Plan
1998
2002
2003
1997
Election of
Labour
Government
2000
Establishment
of GLA and
elected Mayor
of London
Election of
Conservative
Liberal
Democrat
Coalition
government
Localism Bill
2010
2011
2003
2010
Designation
of growth
area status
to Thames
Gateway
(sustainable
communities
plan)
Sir Terry
Farrell’s
Thames
Gateway
Core Vision
2011
Decision
to create
London
wide LEP
and work
through
TGSG
Timeline of Developments in the London
Thames Gateway (what actually happened)
• 1981 – Creation of the London Docklands Development
Corporation
• 1982 – Designation as an Enterprise Zone
• 1987 – Docklands Light Railway opened
• 1987 – London City Airport Opened
• 1991 – Completion of One Canada Square
• 1999 – Jubilee Line extension
• 2000 – ExCeL, Millennium Dome opened
• 2001 – Canary Wharf Tower
• 2005 – London wins Olympic Bid at Stratford
• 2007 – Development of Stratford City begins
• 2009 – Construction on Crossrail begins
Successes – Transport
• Construction of DLR and
extension to Lewisham
and Woolwich
• Extension of the Jubilee
line
• Construction of London
City Airport
• East London Line
extension
• Construction of Stratford
International and High
Speed 1 +2
• Crossrail
Successes – Canary Wharf
• Former West India Docks that
fell into decline redeveloped as
Canary Wharf
• The creation of the enterprise
zone and new transport links to
central London helped attract
inward investment.
• Currently the location of many
of the headquarters of global
financial corporations.
• Significant in maintaining
London position as a key
European and Global financial
centre.
Successes – Greenwich
Peninsula
• Former location of
gasworks and power
stations.
• Regeneration stimulated
by the construction of the
Millennium Dome and
Jubilee Line.
• Development of the O2 as
the premier entertainment
venue of Europe.
• New facilities such as
Ravensbourne College
and plans for an urban
cable car.
What can we learn from
the past?
• Critical success factors
пѓ�Michael Heseltine
пѓ�John Prescott
пѓ�Ken/Boris
пѓ�Money
пѓ�Control
Yes, but……
• Winning formula for big ticket items (Jubilee line,
CTRL,DLR, City Airport etc)
• But was it so good for social and economic regeneration
which benefits our residents?
.......and anyway
• The coalition government is promoting localism, not top
down central control
• Money is scarce
Challenges remain in the London Thames
Gateway and beyond
A relatively young and growing population,
need to create more affordable and sustainable neighbourhoods
Unemployment
• While unemployment
has fallen dramatically
over the last 20 years...
• ...the resident
participation rate is
lower in inner east
London
• Employment remains in
low skilled sectors
rather than high growth
knowledge sectors.
• Long term growth held
back by structural
unemployment
Skills
• Major problem of lack of
necessary skills in the
LTG.
• Big risk of residents not
benefiting from economic
development. egTower
Hamlets.
• Labour market is less
flexible due to lack of
appropriate skills required
by new economy
Deprivation
•
•
•
The Index of Multiple
Deprivation average SOA
score for Hackney is 46.10
more than double the English
average of 21.57.
Double whammy - lower
skilled residents experience
greater competition for jobs
and poverty trap acts as a
barrier to participation in
Labour Market (wages too low
to compensate for withdrawal
of social benefits).
Among the core determinants
are the high crime rates and
the poor quality of housing.
Public Sector Dependence
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Proportion of
employment in Private
sectors 2009
LTG
London
National
Proportion of
employment in Public
Services sectors 2009
Barking
Bexley
Greenwich
Hackney
Havering
Lewisham
Newham
Redbridge
Tower
Waltham
• East London’s Public to
Private Sector
Employment Ratio is
30:70 greater than both
the London and National
averages.
• There is great variation
across the sub region.
• Lewisham, Newham and
Greenwich have among
the highest rate of public
sector employment
nationally.
To sum up
• The Thames Gateway has been transformed
over the last 30 years
• But the regeneration of the Thames Gateway
(the “coordinated process of reversing physical,
economic and social decline where market
forces will not do this without intervention”) still
has a long way to go
The London Thames Gateway’s potential...
What’s next?
• The Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition
Government supports the Thames Gateway
пѓ� We are the only area in the country to have a Thames Gateway
Minister (Bob Neill MP)
� Consistently with the Government’s approach to localism and
foreshadowed in the Growth White Paper, a new Thames
Gateway Strategic Group (TGSG) has been created; locally led,
with the Minister in attendance
пѓ� The Government has explicitly said that it supports the Farrell
core vision
but........
The Government is seeking to achieve a “relative
regional effect”, which involves rebalancing the economy
through supporting the rest of the country excluding the
Greater South East (which includes the Thames
Gateway, poorer that many parts of the rest of the
country)
Debating the national
insurance holiday......
In replying to the amendment, Commercial Secretary to
the Treasury Lord Sassoon said, "This measure does
need to be targeted. It cannot be targeted in a way that
picks out pockets of deprivation-of which there are a
significant number in London and elsewhere. However,
the basis on which we came up with the holiday includes
a relative regional effect. Of course, if we were to sweep
away all the geographic exclusions, the thrust of the
holiday, which will be to have a relative regional effect,
would disappear."
Enterprise Zones?
You heard it here first....
“The enterprise zone plan - which will cost £100m over four years is a scaled down version of one of Margaret Thatcher's most highprofile policies from the 1980s...... They will be established in areas
of England that have been hit hard by the economic downturn mainly in parts of the Midlands and the North....... Firms will be
offered reduced business rates, simplified planning rules and less
regulation.......the zones would be "in parts of Britain that have
missed out in the last 10 years........ They will be the places in our
land with great potential - but which need that extra push from
government and local communities working together.“
Courtesy of BBC News
Unintended consequences of policy
reforms? Housing
• Potential migration of
households from central and
inner to outer east London due
to housing benefit changes.
• But cuts in social housing
budget will reduce capacity to
accommodate growth.
• New Affordable Rents scheme
could have significant impact
by unlocking new investment
model for housing provision
• New private sector housing still
out of reach for many
Source: Shelter
Our case should be heard
• TGSG (supported by the Government) has argued for a new
initiative, the creation of a Thames Gateway Economic Zone
• Parts of the Gateway are as in need of support as the rest of the
country, in some parts the need is greater (Newham vs
Macclesfield)
• We are particularly vulnerable to the impact of other policy reforms
ie welfare reforms
So
• Some of it is about tackling need
• But it is also about capitalising on opportunity
• Remember, the Thames Gateway is a growth area, and the UK
needs it to work!
The case for the London Thames Gateway as a
growth pole; the Knowledge Economy
• Home to 8 leading
universities.
• Specialist facilities in key
fields: broadcasting
(Ravensbourne), digital
manufacturing (London
Met) virtual prototyping
(Greenwich)
• Tech City in Shoreditch,
Media Centre in the
Olympic Park and Digital
Peninsula in Greenwich
•
•
•
•
We’re hosting the Olympic and Paralympic
Games
New transport links – DLR and Stratford International
Lasting development of new urban landscape, public
facilities and new homes.
Stratford City development – largest shopping centre in
Europe
Creation of new university and legacy of Olympic
sporting facilities.
Our location and links
• Identified by the
government and the
London Plan as a growth
corridor includes
opportunity areas.
• Attractive location for
investment - low land
values and great
connections to central
London.
• International links – HS1,
Links to Europe, London
City Airport and London
Gateway port.
Young Population
• The average age in
east London is 35.34.
• Should provide a
dynamic and flexible
labour market.
• An entrepreneurial
culture – a spur to
innovation and new
business formation.
High Business Start-ups
• New business
formation rate in
London East is
16.30% - very high by
national standards.
• The top 4 districts on
business and
enterprise are from
East London.
Digital Economy
Proportion of employment in
Knowledge-driven sectors 2009
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
LTG
London
National
Proportion of employment
in Knowledge-driven
sectors 2009
Barking
Bexley
Greenwich
Hackney
Havering
Lewisham
Newham
Redbridge
Tower
Waltham
• Prime ministerial
support for the
development of Tech
City between
Shoreditch and
Stratford.
• Universities working
with businesses to
capitalise on
innovations.
• Major investors
already locating –
Google, Cisco, Intel.
To sum up (again...)
• The Thames Gateway is 30 years in to a 70 year regeneration
project
• Lots has already happened, there is massive growth potential, but
now is not the time to assume it’s all OK
• The successes of the past can’t (and won’t) be the guide to future
delivery arrangements
• Government support very welcome (national and regional) and not
surprising; the UK economy needs the Gateway!
• But please can it be consistent? Support us in deeds as well as
words.....
Thank you
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