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Northwest Geographic Area Coordination Center
Predictive Services
Winter of 2014-2015
Climate and Significant Fire Potential Outlook
Friday December 5th 2014
Climate summary: Temperature November 2014
CPC Temperature Outlook
for November 2014
(issued in October)
Temperatures actually
observed in November 2014
(departure from normal)
Climate summary: Precipitation November 2014
CPC Precipitation Outlook
for November 2014
(issued in October)
Precipitation observed
in November 2014
(percentage of normal)
Drought designation relieved in sections of
western Oregon and Washington.
Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Outlook
December 2014
Temperatures
Precipitation
Most likely scenario:
Most likely scenario:
Unusually warm temperatures continue
No tendency identifiable for the PACNW.
Snow levels higher than typical for December
El Nino Status as of December 4th 2014:
A weak El Nino is possible but not a sure thing!
Synopsis: The chance of an El NiГ±o event is about 65% during
the Northern Hemisphere winter 2014-2015.
“Although the SST anomalies alone might imply weak El Niño conditions, the patterns
of wind and rainfall anomalies generally do not clearly indicate a coupling of the
atmosphere to the ocean. Therefore, despite movement toward El NiГ±o from one
month ago, the combined atmospheric and oceanic state remains ENSO-neutral” from December 4th 2014 El Nino Diagnostic Discussion
El Nino Status:
El Nino is not looking as likely for late 2014
El Nino monitoring regions:
El Nino 3.4 region
Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Outlook
January through March 2015
Temperatures
Most likely scenario:
Precipitation
Most likely scenario:
Unusually warm temperatures continue Some tendency toward dry over Washington.
Snow levels higher than typical
Indications are weak for Oregon
December through March 2015
NWCC Predictive Services
outlook :
December 2014 through March 2015
Precipitation and cool temperatures have ended
fire season for Northwest Geographic Area and
the western states . Even if some dry spells
occur during winter, conditions conducive to
large, costly, naturally ignited wildfires are not
expected to return to the Pacific Northwest until
summer 2015.
Next Outlook:
Week of January
th
th
12 -16 2015
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